Transcript USA Confectionery Industry Review January 2006 USA Retail Trends USA Retail Trends •Luxury Retailers doing well •Convenience and Drug doing well •Mass, dollar and supermarket struggling •Overall.

USA
Confectionery Industry
Review
January 2006
USA Retail Trends
USA Retail Trends
•Luxury Retailers doing well
•Convenience and Drug doing well
•Mass, dollar and supermarket struggling
•Overall retail is growing
Gas pricing affecting all retailers
USA Confectionery Industry
•2005 Confectionery Performance
•2005 Seasonal Performance
2005
Retail Confectionery Sales
2005 Confectionery Sales
The 2005 U.S. Confectionery Market
Retail Sales
Manufacturers Shipments
Domestic Manufacturer Shipments$16.5
Imports
Exports
%
Change
+1.8%
+1.8%
$
$27.9
$18.1
+1.7%
$2.1
$0.8
Sales in billions
NCA Shipment Data and Global Trade Atlas Import/Export Data
+5.3%
+7.1%
2005 Confectionery Sales
Category
Retail Sales
Total
Chocolate
Manf. Sales
%
Lb. Sales
%
$27.9 Billion $18.2 billion
+1.8%
7.2 Billion
+2.3%
$15.7 Billion $10.2 billion
+2.0%
3.5 Billion
+2.6%
Non-Choc.
$8.7 Billion
$5.7 billion
+0.9%
3.2 Billion
+3.2%
Gum
$3.5 Billion
$2.3 billion
+4.1%
0.6 Billion
+1.4%
NCA Estimates base on 2005 U.S. Dpt. Of Commerce 311D Report and NCA Monthly Shipment Reports
Retail Landscape Changing
Channel
2005 Confectionery
$ Sales
% Growth
Supermarkets
$4.3
-1.1%
*Wal-Mart
$2.8
+3.8%
Mass X Wal-Mart
$1.2
+0.7%
Convenience Stores
$3.8
+8.8%
Drug Stores
$2.3
+1.0%
*Warehouse Clubs
$3.2
+3.6%
*Dollar Stores
$.8
Even
Vending
$1.2
-1.9%
*Bulk
$1.5
-0.5
*estimates
Candy and Gum Ranked 3rd
Among 2005 Food Categories
$ Billions
$0.0
$3.0
$6.0
$9.0
-0.9%
Product Categories
Carbonated Beverages
+1.6%
Salty Snacks
Ice Cream
Cookies
-0.2%
$7.20
$6.10
-0.4%
-0.5%
$13.40
$7.80
-0.2%
Candy& Gum
$15.0
$11.10
-1.0%
Milk
Cereal
$12.0
$4.40
$3.90
IRI Food, Drug & Mass
Excluding Wal-Mart 12/25/05
2005 Confectionery Sales
Manufacturers Sales Through November, 2005
$
Chocolate Candy
+2.0%
Non-Chocolate Candy +0.9%
Gum
+4.1%
NCA Monthly Shipment Reports
Lbs.
+2.6%
+3.2%
+1.4%
Candy & Gum Retail Performance
2005 IRI Sales Results
As of December 25, 2005
Channel
52 Week
$ Sales
52 Week
% Change
Supermarkets
Drug
Mass X Wal-Mart
Convenience
Total Candy and Gum
$4.3 billion
$2.3 billion
$1.2 billion
$3.8 billion
$11.6 billion
-1.1%
+1.0%
+0.7%
+8.8%
+2.6%
Information Resources, Inc. Food, Drug, Mass & Convenience
2005
Seasonal Performance
Confectionery Seasonal Sales
(** in millions of dollars)
Valentine’s Day Easter Halloween Christmas -
2005
$970
$1,761
$2,088
$1,375
Results and Projection as of January 2006
Source: Sales figures are compiled by National Confectioners Association
based on input from Information Resources, Inc. NCA/CMA Monthly Shipment
Reports and U.S. Department of Commerce
What Affects Seasonal Sales?
•Date/Day of Holiday
•The Economy
•Consumer Confidence
•Consumer Mood
•Shopping Patterns/Habits
•Merchandising Strength/Visibility
Holiday Dates/Days
Holiday
2004
2005
2006
Valentine’s Day
Saturday
Monday
Tuesday
Easter
4/11
3/27
4/16
Halloween
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Christmas
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Thanksgiving
11/25
11/24
11/23
Shopping Days
30
31
32
Seasonal Confectionery Trends
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
VALENTINE’S
-4.0% -3.0%
-7.6%
+6.5%
-0.5%
EASTER
-7.6% +5.5%
+2.2%
-2.2%
-2.4%
HALLOWEEN
+2.3% +2.4%
+0.7%
-0.4%
+0.2%
CHRISTMAS
+2.4% -3.5%
-1.4%
-3.0%
+1.7%
* IRI FD&M
NCA projects a 2.3% increase in 2006
New Trends
Trends - What's
for 2005/06
 Limited Editions
 Dark Chocolate
 High End and Gourmet Candy
 High Cocoa Content Chocolates
 Single Origin Chocolates
Why are gourmet chocolate sales growing?
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Low Pricing
High Pricing
Good news –antioxidants
They’re sexy
Commitment at retail
Why are gourmet chocolate sales growing?
The correct answer is:
C. Good news –antioxidants
D. They’re sexy
E. Commitment at retail
Everyday gourmet
chocolate candy
grew
32%
in 2005!
Trends - What's
for 2005/06
 Sugar Free Candies and Gums
 Licorice
 Single Serve Seasonal Offerings
 Breath Fresheners
Going Forward
Retail Sales
+0.4%
everyday sales
Halloween Sales
+2.3%
Christmas Sales
+2.4%
Favorable
2006 Seasonal Dates
New Item Introductions
Strong
Confectionery Continues to Grow
• Consumers know what they are
buying
• Choice of sizes
• Variety of nutritional choices
• Candy fits in a healthy lifestyle
• Economy Improving
• 3 Favorable Seasonal Dates
Thank You!