Slide 1

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

1

Forecast

Actual

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

2

Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast - w/DSM
Peak MW
Annual Energy
Summer
Winter
avg MW
2000
1490
00-01
1536
2000
1107
2001
1370
01-02
1316
2001
1017
2002
1467
02-03
1404
2002
1034
2003
1533
03-04
1547
2003
1064
2004
1502
04-05
1566
2004
1140
2005
1580
05-06
1614
2005
1211
2006
1644
06-07
1607
2006
1165
2007
1724
07-08
1654
2007
1186
2008
1678
08-09
1805
2008
1222
2009
1685
09-10
1766
2009
1216
2010
1610
10-11
1704
2010
1201
2011
1667
11-12
1682
2011
1226
2012
1784
12-13
1650
2012
1237
2013
1707
13-14
1730
2013
1232
2014
1749
14-15
1706
2014
1270
2015
1769
15-16
1723
2015
1283
2016
1790
16-17
1739
2016
1296
2017
1810
17-18
1755
2017
1309
2018
1830
18-19
1770
2018
1322
2019
1850
19-20
1786
2019
1335
2020
1870
20-21
1801
2020
1348
2021
1889
21-22
1816
2021
1360
2022
1909
22-23
1830
2022
1371
2023
1928
23-24
1843
2023
1382
2024
1946
24-25
1856
2024
1393
2025
1965
25-26
1869
2025
1403
2026
1982
26-27
1880
2026
1413
2027
2000
27-28
1891
2027
1422
2028
2017
28-29
1902
2028
1431
2029
2034
2029
1438
BAAGR
1.0%
0.8%
0.9%
Per Yr
19.2
13.9
11.5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

3

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

4

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Substation Transformer Loading (STL) Program
–
–
–
–

6

Data repository
Monthly actual peaks/energy
Load projections
Growth rates

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Populating the database
– STL
– Non-coincident values

• Forecast data
• “Fitting” the load
– Conforming vs. Non-conforming
– ‘Scrunch’ factor

7

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Load level assumptions (e.g., System load)
(SUM / WIN)
– Historical
o 1-in-2
– Proposed
o 1-in-10
– Scenarios:
o 1-in-20
o 1-in-50

8

(2014 = 1650 / 1582 MW)
(2014 = 1673 / 1615 MW)
(2014 = 1679 / 1624 MW)
(2014 = 1687 / 1635 MW)


Slide 2

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

1

Forecast

Actual

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

2

Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast - w/DSM
Peak MW
Annual Energy
Summer
Winter
avg MW
2000
1490
00-01
1536
2000
1107
2001
1370
01-02
1316
2001
1017
2002
1467
02-03
1404
2002
1034
2003
1533
03-04
1547
2003
1064
2004
1502
04-05
1566
2004
1140
2005
1580
05-06
1614
2005
1211
2006
1644
06-07
1607
2006
1165
2007
1724
07-08
1654
2007
1186
2008
1678
08-09
1805
2008
1222
2009
1685
09-10
1766
2009
1216
2010
1610
10-11
1704
2010
1201
2011
1667
11-12
1682
2011
1226
2012
1784
12-13
1650
2012
1237
2013
1707
13-14
1730
2013
1232
2014
1749
14-15
1706
2014
1270
2015
1769
15-16
1723
2015
1283
2016
1790
16-17
1739
2016
1296
2017
1810
17-18
1755
2017
1309
2018
1830
18-19
1770
2018
1322
2019
1850
19-20
1786
2019
1335
2020
1870
20-21
1801
2020
1348
2021
1889
21-22
1816
2021
1360
2022
1909
22-23
1830
2022
1371
2023
1928
23-24
1843
2023
1382
2024
1946
24-25
1856
2024
1393
2025
1965
25-26
1869
2025
1403
2026
1982
26-27
1880
2026
1413
2027
2000
27-28
1891
2027
1422
2028
2017
28-29
1902
2028
1431
2029
2034
2029
1438
BAAGR
1.0%
0.8%
0.9%
Per Yr
19.2
13.9
11.5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

3

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

4

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Substation Transformer Loading (STL) Program
–
–
–
–

6

Data repository
Monthly actual peaks/energy
Load projections
Growth rates

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Populating the database
– STL
– Non-coincident values

• Forecast data
• “Fitting” the load
– Conforming vs. Non-conforming
– ‘Scrunch’ factor

7

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Load level assumptions (e.g., System load)
(SUM / WIN)
– Historical
o 1-in-2
– Proposed
o 1-in-10
– Scenarios:
o 1-in-20
o 1-in-50

8

(2014 = 1650 / 1582 MW)
(2014 = 1673 / 1615 MW)
(2014 = 1679 / 1624 MW)
(2014 = 1687 / 1635 MW)


Slide 3

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

1

Forecast

Actual

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

2

Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast - w/DSM
Peak MW
Annual Energy
Summer
Winter
avg MW
2000
1490
00-01
1536
2000
1107
2001
1370
01-02
1316
2001
1017
2002
1467
02-03
1404
2002
1034
2003
1533
03-04
1547
2003
1064
2004
1502
04-05
1566
2004
1140
2005
1580
05-06
1614
2005
1211
2006
1644
06-07
1607
2006
1165
2007
1724
07-08
1654
2007
1186
2008
1678
08-09
1805
2008
1222
2009
1685
09-10
1766
2009
1216
2010
1610
10-11
1704
2010
1201
2011
1667
11-12
1682
2011
1226
2012
1784
12-13
1650
2012
1237
2013
1707
13-14
1730
2013
1232
2014
1749
14-15
1706
2014
1270
2015
1769
15-16
1723
2015
1283
2016
1790
16-17
1739
2016
1296
2017
1810
17-18
1755
2017
1309
2018
1830
18-19
1770
2018
1322
2019
1850
19-20
1786
2019
1335
2020
1870
20-21
1801
2020
1348
2021
1889
21-22
1816
2021
1360
2022
1909
22-23
1830
2022
1371
2023
1928
23-24
1843
2023
1382
2024
1946
24-25
1856
2024
1393
2025
1965
25-26
1869
2025
1403
2026
1982
26-27
1880
2026
1413
2027
2000
27-28
1891
2027
1422
2028
2017
28-29
1902
2028
1431
2029
2034
2029
1438
BAAGR
1.0%
0.8%
0.9%
Per Yr
19.2
13.9
11.5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

3

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

4

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Substation Transformer Loading (STL) Program
–
–
–
–

6

Data repository
Monthly actual peaks/energy
Load projections
Growth rates

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Populating the database
– STL
– Non-coincident values

• Forecast data
• “Fitting” the load
– Conforming vs. Non-conforming
– ‘Scrunch’ factor

7

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Load level assumptions (e.g., System load)
(SUM / WIN)
– Historical
o 1-in-2
– Proposed
o 1-in-10
– Scenarios:
o 1-in-20
o 1-in-50

8

(2014 = 1650 / 1582 MW)
(2014 = 1673 / 1615 MW)
(2014 = 1679 / 1624 MW)
(2014 = 1687 / 1635 MW)


Slide 4

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

1

Forecast

Actual

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

2

Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast - w/DSM
Peak MW
Annual Energy
Summer
Winter
avg MW
2000
1490
00-01
1536
2000
1107
2001
1370
01-02
1316
2001
1017
2002
1467
02-03
1404
2002
1034
2003
1533
03-04
1547
2003
1064
2004
1502
04-05
1566
2004
1140
2005
1580
05-06
1614
2005
1211
2006
1644
06-07
1607
2006
1165
2007
1724
07-08
1654
2007
1186
2008
1678
08-09
1805
2008
1222
2009
1685
09-10
1766
2009
1216
2010
1610
10-11
1704
2010
1201
2011
1667
11-12
1682
2011
1226
2012
1784
12-13
1650
2012
1237
2013
1707
13-14
1730
2013
1232
2014
1749
14-15
1706
2014
1270
2015
1769
15-16
1723
2015
1283
2016
1790
16-17
1739
2016
1296
2017
1810
17-18
1755
2017
1309
2018
1830
18-19
1770
2018
1322
2019
1850
19-20
1786
2019
1335
2020
1870
20-21
1801
2020
1348
2021
1889
21-22
1816
2021
1360
2022
1909
22-23
1830
2022
1371
2023
1928
23-24
1843
2023
1382
2024
1946
24-25
1856
2024
1393
2025
1965
25-26
1869
2025
1403
2026
1982
26-27
1880
2026
1413
2027
2000
27-28
1891
2027
1422
2028
2017
28-29
1902
2028
1431
2029
2034
2029
1438
BAAGR
1.0%
0.8%
0.9%
Per Yr
19.2
13.9
11.5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

3

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

4

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Substation Transformer Loading (STL) Program
–
–
–
–

6

Data repository
Monthly actual peaks/energy
Load projections
Growth rates

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Populating the database
– STL
– Non-coincident values

• Forecast data
• “Fitting” the load
– Conforming vs. Non-conforming
– ‘Scrunch’ factor

7

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Load level assumptions (e.g., System load)
(SUM / WIN)
– Historical
o 1-in-2
– Proposed
o 1-in-10
– Scenarios:
o 1-in-20
o 1-in-50

8

(2014 = 1650 / 1582 MW)
(2014 = 1673 / 1615 MW)
(2014 = 1679 / 1624 MW)
(2014 = 1687 / 1635 MW)


Slide 5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

1

Forecast

Actual

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

2

Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast - w/DSM
Peak MW
Annual Energy
Summer
Winter
avg MW
2000
1490
00-01
1536
2000
1107
2001
1370
01-02
1316
2001
1017
2002
1467
02-03
1404
2002
1034
2003
1533
03-04
1547
2003
1064
2004
1502
04-05
1566
2004
1140
2005
1580
05-06
1614
2005
1211
2006
1644
06-07
1607
2006
1165
2007
1724
07-08
1654
2007
1186
2008
1678
08-09
1805
2008
1222
2009
1685
09-10
1766
2009
1216
2010
1610
10-11
1704
2010
1201
2011
1667
11-12
1682
2011
1226
2012
1784
12-13
1650
2012
1237
2013
1707
13-14
1730
2013
1232
2014
1749
14-15
1706
2014
1270
2015
1769
15-16
1723
2015
1283
2016
1790
16-17
1739
2016
1296
2017
1810
17-18
1755
2017
1309
2018
1830
18-19
1770
2018
1322
2019
1850
19-20
1786
2019
1335
2020
1870
20-21
1801
2020
1348
2021
1889
21-22
1816
2021
1360
2022
1909
22-23
1830
2022
1371
2023
1928
23-24
1843
2023
1382
2024
1946
24-25
1856
2024
1393
2025
1965
25-26
1869
2025
1403
2026
1982
26-27
1880
2026
1413
2027
2000
27-28
1891
2027
1422
2028
2017
28-29
1902
2028
1431
2029
2034
2029
1438
BAAGR
1.0%
0.8%
0.9%
Per Yr
19.2
13.9
11.5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

3

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

4

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Substation Transformer Loading (STL) Program
–
–
–
–

6

Data repository
Monthly actual peaks/energy
Load projections
Growth rates

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Populating the database
– STL
– Non-coincident values

• Forecast data
• “Fitting” the load
– Conforming vs. Non-conforming
– ‘Scrunch’ factor

7

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Load level assumptions (e.g., System load)
(SUM / WIN)
– Historical
o 1-in-2
– Proposed
o 1-in-10
– Scenarios:
o 1-in-20
o 1-in-50

8

(2014 = 1650 / 1582 MW)
(2014 = 1673 / 1615 MW)
(2014 = 1679 / 1624 MW)
(2014 = 1687 / 1635 MW)


Slide 6

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

1

Forecast

Actual

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

2

Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast - w/DSM
Peak MW
Annual Energy
Summer
Winter
avg MW
2000
1490
00-01
1536
2000
1107
2001
1370
01-02
1316
2001
1017
2002
1467
02-03
1404
2002
1034
2003
1533
03-04
1547
2003
1064
2004
1502
04-05
1566
2004
1140
2005
1580
05-06
1614
2005
1211
2006
1644
06-07
1607
2006
1165
2007
1724
07-08
1654
2007
1186
2008
1678
08-09
1805
2008
1222
2009
1685
09-10
1766
2009
1216
2010
1610
10-11
1704
2010
1201
2011
1667
11-12
1682
2011
1226
2012
1784
12-13
1650
2012
1237
2013
1707
13-14
1730
2013
1232
2014
1749
14-15
1706
2014
1270
2015
1769
15-16
1723
2015
1283
2016
1790
16-17
1739
2016
1296
2017
1810
17-18
1755
2017
1309
2018
1830
18-19
1770
2018
1322
2019
1850
19-20
1786
2019
1335
2020
1870
20-21
1801
2020
1348
2021
1889
21-22
1816
2021
1360
2022
1909
22-23
1830
2022
1371
2023
1928
23-24
1843
2023
1382
2024
1946
24-25
1856
2024
1393
2025
1965
25-26
1869
2025
1403
2026
1982
26-27
1880
2026
1413
2027
2000
27-28
1891
2027
1422
2028
2017
28-29
1902
2028
1431
2029
2034
2029
1438
BAAGR
1.0%
0.8%
0.9%
Per Yr
19.2
13.9
11.5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

3

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

4

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Substation Transformer Loading (STL) Program
–
–
–
–

6

Data repository
Monthly actual peaks/energy
Load projections
Growth rates

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Populating the database
– STL
– Non-coincident values

• Forecast data
• “Fitting” the load
– Conforming vs. Non-conforming
– ‘Scrunch’ factor

7

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Load level assumptions (e.g., System load)
(SUM / WIN)
– Historical
o 1-in-2
– Proposed
o 1-in-10
– Scenarios:
o 1-in-20
o 1-in-50

8

(2014 = 1650 / 1582 MW)
(2014 = 1673 / 1615 MW)
(2014 = 1679 / 1624 MW)
(2014 = 1687 / 1635 MW)


Slide 7

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

1

Forecast

Actual

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

2

Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast - w/DSM
Peak MW
Annual Energy
Summer
Winter
avg MW
2000
1490
00-01
1536
2000
1107
2001
1370
01-02
1316
2001
1017
2002
1467
02-03
1404
2002
1034
2003
1533
03-04
1547
2003
1064
2004
1502
04-05
1566
2004
1140
2005
1580
05-06
1614
2005
1211
2006
1644
06-07
1607
2006
1165
2007
1724
07-08
1654
2007
1186
2008
1678
08-09
1805
2008
1222
2009
1685
09-10
1766
2009
1216
2010
1610
10-11
1704
2010
1201
2011
1667
11-12
1682
2011
1226
2012
1784
12-13
1650
2012
1237
2013
1707
13-14
1730
2013
1232
2014
1749
14-15
1706
2014
1270
2015
1769
15-16
1723
2015
1283
2016
1790
16-17
1739
2016
1296
2017
1810
17-18
1755
2017
1309
2018
1830
18-19
1770
2018
1322
2019
1850
19-20
1786
2019
1335
2020
1870
20-21
1801
2020
1348
2021
1889
21-22
1816
2021
1360
2022
1909
22-23
1830
2022
1371
2023
1928
23-24
1843
2023
1382
2024
1946
24-25
1856
2024
1393
2025
1965
25-26
1869
2025
1403
2026
1982
26-27
1880
2026
1413
2027
2000
27-28
1891
2027
1422
2028
2017
28-29
1902
2028
1431
2029
2034
2029
1438
BAAGR
1.0%
0.8%
0.9%
Per Yr
19.2
13.9
11.5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

3

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

4

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Substation Transformer Loading (STL) Program
–
–
–
–

6

Data repository
Monthly actual peaks/energy
Load projections
Growth rates

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Populating the database
– STL
– Non-coincident values

• Forecast data
• “Fitting” the load
– Conforming vs. Non-conforming
– ‘Scrunch’ factor

7

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Load level assumptions (e.g., System load)
(SUM / WIN)
– Historical
o 1-in-2
– Proposed
o 1-in-10
– Scenarios:
o 1-in-20
o 1-in-50

8

(2014 = 1650 / 1582 MW)
(2014 = 1673 / 1615 MW)
(2014 = 1679 / 1624 MW)
(2014 = 1687 / 1635 MW)


Slide 8

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

1

Forecast

Actual

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

2

Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast - w/DSM
Peak MW
Annual Energy
Summer
Winter
avg MW
2000
1490
00-01
1536
2000
1107
2001
1370
01-02
1316
2001
1017
2002
1467
02-03
1404
2002
1034
2003
1533
03-04
1547
2003
1064
2004
1502
04-05
1566
2004
1140
2005
1580
05-06
1614
2005
1211
2006
1644
06-07
1607
2006
1165
2007
1724
07-08
1654
2007
1186
2008
1678
08-09
1805
2008
1222
2009
1685
09-10
1766
2009
1216
2010
1610
10-11
1704
2010
1201
2011
1667
11-12
1682
2011
1226
2012
1784
12-13
1650
2012
1237
2013
1707
13-14
1730
2013
1232
2014
1749
14-15
1706
2014
1270
2015
1769
15-16
1723
2015
1283
2016
1790
16-17
1739
2016
1296
2017
1810
17-18
1755
2017
1309
2018
1830
18-19
1770
2018
1322
2019
1850
19-20
1786
2019
1335
2020
1870
20-21
1801
2020
1348
2021
1889
21-22
1816
2021
1360
2022
1909
22-23
1830
2022
1371
2023
1928
23-24
1843
2023
1382
2024
1946
24-25
1856
2024
1393
2025
1965
25-26
1869
2025
1403
2026
1982
26-27
1880
2026
1413
2027
2000
27-28
1891
2027
1422
2028
2017
28-29
1902
2028
1431
2029
2034
2029
1438
BAAGR
1.0%
0.8%
0.9%
Per Yr
19.2
13.9
11.5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

3

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

4

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

5

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Substation Transformer Loading (STL) Program
–
–
–
–

6

Data repository
Monthly actual peaks/energy
Load projections
Growth rates

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Populating the database
– STL
– Non-coincident values

• Forecast data
• “Fitting” the load
– Conforming vs. Non-conforming
– ‘Scrunch’ factor

7

Load Forecast and Base Case Development

• Load level assumptions (e.g., System load)
(SUM / WIN)
– Historical
o 1-in-2
– Proposed
o 1-in-10
– Scenarios:
o 1-in-20
o 1-in-50

8

(2014 = 1650 / 1582 MW)
(2014 = 1673 / 1615 MW)
(2014 = 1679 / 1624 MW)
(2014 = 1687 / 1635 MW)