Financial Services Forum Gordon Wilson Group Managing Director Welcome to our Life & Pensions Executive Dinner Guest Speaker – David Smith – “Back from the Future”
Download ReportTranscript Financial Services Forum Gordon Wilson Group Managing Director Welcome to our Life & Pensions Executive Dinner Guest Speaker – David Smith – “Back from the Future”
Slide 1
Slide 2
Financial Services Forum
Gordon Wilson
Group Managing Director
Welcome to our
Life & Pensions
Executive Dinner
Guest Speaker – David Smith – “Back from the Future”
Slide 3
Financial Services Forum
Jon May
Head of Sales, Financial Services
Welcome to our
Life & Pensions
Executive Dinner
Slide 4
Slide 5
Will Collective DC fly?
Are Lifestyle Funds dead?
Slide 6
Software Solutions
new world product
propositions
retirement income innovation
digitally enabled
customer centric
omni-channel
straight through processing
workflow driven
worksite delivery
heritage transformation
Slide 7
Guest Speaker
Back from the Future
Introducing David Smith
Chief Executive
Global Futures and Foresight
A unique insight into the future and
how to prepare for it
Slide 8
New Whitepaper
Slide 9
David Smith
Chief Executive
Global Futures and Foresight
Copyright © 2015 Global Futures and Foresight Limited
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 10
Data Processing
"I have travelled the length
and breadth of this country
and talked with the best
people, and I can assure you
that data processing is a fad
that won't last out the year."
The editor in charge of business
books for Prentice Hall, 1957.
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 11
... and the telephone
“The 'telephone' has too
many shortcomings to be
seriously considered as a
means of communication.
The device is inherently
of no value to us.”
Western Union internal memo, 1876.
Over 1.2 billion telephone lines
Over 7 billion mobiles
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 12
• Nokia was a phone company in a
world that stopped buying phones.
We now buy small computers
that also make calls.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/09/why-nokia-died-nobody-buys-phones-anymore/279337/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 13
Innovation
48 Years
1810
Ezra Warner of Waterbury, Connecticut patented the first can opener
1858
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 14
With change comes risk
• Root causes of declines in
public companies’ value:
• 60% strategic risks.
• 30% operational risks.
• 10% financial risks.
"the assumptions on which the
organization has been built and
is being run no longer fit reality.“
Peter Drucker
Global Futures
& Foresight
Source: Society of Actuaries (2013) : Enterprise Risk Management: Looking Forward
Slide 15
Mega trends
1.
Globalization
2.
Technology
3.
Environment
4.
Changes in work
5.
Demographics & people
6.
Consumption
Global Futures
& Foresight
http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/
Slide 16
GLOBAL
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 17
Global population growth
The global population is expected to rise from 6.5bn in 2005 to 7.7bn in 2020 and 9.6bn in 2050
www.watchblog.com
Source: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 18
“The size of the world economy will triple
over the next four decades as emergingmarket economies wield increasing power”
“World GDP to double within two decades”
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 19
Emerging global economic growth
• 70% from emerging economies - 2030.
• 6/10 fastest growing economies
are African.
• By 2020 - Asean economy doubles.
• China – No.2 insurance market in 10 yrs.
– 5 of top 10 insurance growth markets in
APAC in P&C and Life.
http://www.economist.com/node/17677746
“the rise of emerging markets is forcing insurers to
re-think their current business models...’
http://www.standardchartered.com/en/news-and-media/news/global/2013-11-06-super-cycle-EM-growth-is-key.html
http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/business-news/exports/daniel-peters-only-one-in-five-uk-smes-export-we-must-increase-that-number/6011.article
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 20
‘Middle Class’ consumption
100 million becoming ‘Middle Class’ every year
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 21
Global ageing by 2050
• Over 60’s:
– Mature economies - 22% to 33%.
– Developing world - 9% to 20%.
• 25% of China’s people over 65.
• Japan alone has 30% over 60.
– 64 countries will have by 2050.
http://www.global-ageing.eu/Bilder/collage.png
By the time a person born today is 80, their life
expectancy would have gone well past 110.
http://www.aicpa.org/RESEARCH/CPAHORIZONS2025/GLOBALFORCES/SOCIALANDHUMANRESOURCE/Pages/default.aspx
http://www.unescap.org/sdd/issues/ageing/ageing.asp
http://info.cancerresearchuk.org/cancerstats/world/demographics/demographic-facts-for-the-world-population
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 22
And we’re living longer lives
Human life expectancies have
the potential to reach 500 or
possibly even 1000.
Dr. Aubrey de Grey B.A.,
M.A. and Ph.D.,
University of Cambridge,
Cambridge, UK.
Born 20th April 1963
“In the near future, the next two
to four decades, the disease of
ageing will be cured.”
Robert A. Freitas Jr. is
Senior Research Fellow
at the Institute for
Molecular Manufacturing
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 23
Health and wellness
We are living longer but not necessarily healthier.
By 2030
• Overweight & obese
doubles to 3.3bn.
• Non-communicable
diseases to cost £29tn.
• Cancer rates jump 75%.
http://www.weforum.org/news/non-communicable-diseases-cost-47-trillion-2030-new-study-released-today http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21568065-world-getting-widersays-charlotte-howard-what-can-be-done-about-it-big http://www.webmd.com/cancer/news/20120531/global-cancer-rates-set-to-soar-by-2030
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 24
HEALTHCARE
Global Futures
& Foresight
http://www.pdesigni.com/news/show/1468
Slide 25
Getting older
• 10m people over 65 years.
– One in 6 people.
– By 2030 5½m more +65’s.
– By 2050 one in four.
• By 2020
– 3m more over 70.
– 36% of workers over 50.
http://cdni.wired.co.uk/620x413/o_r/oldpeople.jpg
In 2015, those aged 40+ will outnumber under-40s
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/key-issues-for-the-new-parliament/value-for-money-in-public-services/the-ageing-population/
http://www.hrreview.co.uk/hr-news/diversity-equality/cipd-urges-employers-to-embrace-ageing-workforce/40366
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9612708/One-in-four-will-retire-at-70-by-2028.html
http://www.hrmagazine.co.uk/hro/news/1075369/more-workers-continue-employment-past-age-65
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 26
UK Lifestyles
• 95% not even doing
minimum amount of
physical activity.
• Sedentary lifestyles leads
to more than 40 chronic
diseases.
http://www.breathslim.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/sedentary-life.jpg
Sedentary leisure time is expected to rise
in the UK by 52 hours per week by 2030.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-11442101
http://www.nhs.uk/news/2011/08August/Pages/half-of-uk-predicted-to-be-obese-by-2030.aspx
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 27
Health outlook
• 15m live with a long-term
condition.
• 18m within 20 years.
By 2030 one in two UK
workers could have a
long-term condition.
http://www.mondolithic.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Baseline-Magazine-Cover-UK-Health.jpg
http://medicalxpress.com/news/2013-02-exposure-pesticides-food-air-diabetes.html
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/oct/02/diabetes-charity-warns-health-calamity?newsfeed=true
http://www.fitforworkeurope.eu/Downloads/uk/Fit_for_Work_WEB.pdf
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 28
REDEFINING LATER LIFE
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 29
@65
• More than 1,700
British people reach
65 every day.
• 10.3m over 65.
• 15.5m by 2030.
Source: The TUC
35% of UK workers not contributing to any savings.
http://www.cii.co.uk/knowledge/insurance-institute-of-london/articles/pensions-101/31253
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/key-issues-for-the-new-parliament/value-for-money-in-public-services/the-ageing-population/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 30
Silver wealth UK
• 2002-2012, spending by
over-50s grew by £100bn.
• +50’s control 80% of wealth.
• 60s own 25% (£993bn) of
all property wealth.
http://www.english.rfi.fr/sites/english.filesrfi/imagecache/rfi_43_large/sites/images.rfi.fr/files/aef_image/old-people-actives.jpg
http://www.ey.com/UK/en/Industries/Financial-Services/Insurance/Beyond-2020---Forces-shaping-the-industry
http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/news/1283323/
http://www.lv.com/adviser/working-with-lv/news_detail/?articleid=3238383
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 31
Ageing workforce
• 2020: 36% of UK working
pop’n will be over 50.
• 20% don't expect to retire.
• 41% take a part-time job
in retirement to make up
for the shortfall in their
savings.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01802/retirement_1802700b.jpg
2028: 1 in 4 UK employees
could work until they’re 70.
http://www.hrmagazine.co.uk/hro/news/1075224/all-play-british-workers-dont-plan-reach-retirement-age
http://www.hrreview.co.uk/hr-news/diversity-equality/cipd-urges-employers-to-embrace-ageing-workforce/40366
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9612708/One-in-four-will-retire-at-70-by-2028.html
http://www.hrmagazine.co.uk/hro/news/1075369/more-workers-continue-employment-past-age-65
http://www.aviva.com/research-and-discussion/consumer-attitude-survey-2014/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 32
BUSINESS
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 33
Changed
Dynamics
Porter’s 5 Forces
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 34
Home equity release
• 2013, older homeowners
raised £1bn in home
equity release.
– 60% for home and garden
improvements.
– 21% to clear debt.
– Car upgrades, holidays and
helping younger relatives
financially also feature.
http://moneylendingexpert.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/equity-release-house-squeeze.jpg
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/455422/The-key-to-unlock-a-brighter-future-Look-at-the-rise-of-equity-release
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/455422/The-key-to-unlock-a-brighter-future-Look-at-the-rise-of-equity-release
http://www.cii.co.uk/media/5092528/beyond_2020_life__pensions_and_health_insurance.pdf
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 35
Reconfiguring the competition
• 30% believe new emerging
market insurers will move
into the developed world to
become global insurers.
• 28% see truly global markets.
PWC
http://www.trimsunlimited.com/global-markets.php
“the rise of emerging markets is forcing insurers to
re-think their current business models...’
http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/insurance/pdf/insurance-2020-turning-change-into-opportunity.pdf
http://www.pwc.com/us/en/press-releases/2012/2012-is-the-year-of-the-customer.jhtml
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 36
Emerging competition
• 89% of insurers say competition intensifies in distribution in 3 years.
• 64% say from non-insurance players - Google, Amazon, Walmart…
http://www.netrate.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Enhanced-Insurer-Agent-Connectivity-in-Insurance-Distribution-Chain.jpg
http://newsroom.accenture.com/news/insurance-sold-through-digital-channels-to-reach-25-billion-annually-in-europe-according-to-accenturestudy.htm?c=glb_accglbtwt_10000945&n=smc_0713#sf18286796
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 37
The industry is not delivering
• Customers trust L&P providers least
among all financial companies.
– Only 31% of L&P customers can
manage their policy the way they want.
– Only 38% say their L&P provider offers
value for money
– Only 37% say their insurer provides
clear and transparent comms.
http://juliayoga324.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/img_3277.png
– 39% products complicated & confusing.
Too complicated and confusing, difficult to
engage with and not great value for money
https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/insurance_financial_institutions_improve_p_c_profitability_premium_growth/
http://insuranceblog.accenture.com/getting-to-grips-with-the-switching-economy-in-insurance/?cid=fs_insblogfy14_10000255_smc_0913#sf22269992
http://newsroom.accenture.com/news/uk-life-insurance-customers-prefer-buying-policies-online-but-personal-touch-is-important-for-advice-according-to-accenture-research.htm
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 38
Reorientated business models
• From ‘inside-out’ to ‘outside-in.’
• A shift to a world of:
– Web-based.
– Decentralised.
– Front-office-oriented.
– Mobile.
– Touch-screen.
– Consumer-oriented.
– Co-creation
L&P providers face lower levels of
engagement and satisfaction than even
banks (44% vs. 60%)
Global Futures
http://www.theharteofmarketing.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/customer-centric-outside-in-reorg-harte.jpg
http://www.insurancetech.com/management-strategies/insurance-companies-embrace-emerging-tec/232200668
& Foresight
Slide 39
Value shifting outside the enterprise
• Organizations outnumbered by the
resources provided by their network.
• Business value from the social world.
– Crowdsourcing.
– Open and social supply chains.
– Open innovation.
– Co-creation.
– Social media marketing.
Sloan Review (MIT)
80% of executives worldwide say enterprisewide collaboration is the key to success.
Global Survey Enterprise Collaboration
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 40
TECHNOLOGY & COMMUNICATIONS
Change is coming
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 41
Three Horizons
Point of greatest
confusion
Entrepreneur
Horizon 3
Out there
Leader
In 2008
Horizon 2
New
Manager
Horizon 1
Core
Extend and defend Build emerging Create viable
businesses
options Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 42
Horizon 1
Technologies maturing now
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Mobile
Consumerisation of I.T. (BYOD)
Big data and analytics
Social
Cloud
Internet of Things
Telematics
Wearables
Artificial intelligence
Augmented reality
Avatars
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 43
Horizon 2
Technologies coming within 10 years
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Holographics
3D printing
Automation
Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles
Instant language translation
Cognitive computing
Haptic technology
Electronic nose
RNA based therapeutics
Vocal health diagnostics via smartphone
Next generation neuropharmacology
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 44
Horizon 3
Emerging technologies of 10yrs+
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Quantum computing
Prescriptive analytics
Smart dust
Programmable material
Neuroprosthetics
Brain-to-computer interfaces
Brain-to-brain interfaces
Geoengineering
Microscale 3D printing
Anti ageing interventions
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 45
First
differently
Thenwe
wedo
dothings
different
things
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 46
Mobile to 2018
telephone – computer - sensor
•
•
•
•
•
Mobile data traffic growth 61% cagr.
66% of devices – smartphones.
£29.99 Ubislate 7Ci
Speeds increase 2.6-fold.
15.9 Exabyte's/month. 69% video.
Functions:
–
–
–
–
–
Payments
Environment
Travel
Health & wellness
Context etc.
Mobile will remake insurance business models by 2020
http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/VNI-Forecast_QA.html/index.html
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 47
Wearables
• $19bn revenue by 2018.
– $1.4bn in 2013.
• 6% of businesses given
these to their staff...
– Next logical step.
• 21% already wear a
device or use App. to
track health.
http://s3files.core77.com/blog/images/2013/04/where-wearable-tech.jpg
‘For businesses - implications for systems development,
insight and analytics, leadership & competitive
advantage.’
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57607524-94/wearable-tech-revenue-to-hit-$19b-by-2018/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23579404
http://www.idgconnect.com/blog-abstract/3419/how-will-wearable-technology-impact-business-world
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 48
The mobile consumer in context
•
•
•
•
•
Where am I?
What am I doing?
Who’s around me?
Where am I going?
What would help me?
– Where
– What
– Who
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 49
The
postnetworks
e-mail era
Social
Adds $1.3tn per year – 66% through collaboration
• Changed the way we live.
• Social and political processes.
• Change the way we work.
• Global
• Work Swarms
• New Management processes.
• Collaborate around problems.
• Faster and more creative solutions.
20-25% improvement in productivity of
knowledge workers.
http://www.newmediatrendwatch.com/world-overview/137-social-networking-and-ugc
McKinsey Global Institute pdf, July 2012, ‘The Social Economy: Unlocking value and productivity through social technologies.’
Social Media
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 50
Internet of ‘Things’
By 2020
• One trillion sensors embedded in humans and machines.
• We will each own 50 internet connected devices.
99.4% of the 1.5 trillion physical objects in
the world are still unconnected.
http://www.industrytap.com/the-hybird-age/3651
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 51
Big data
• Every day we create 2.5
quintillion bytes of data:
– A new Google every 4 days.
• Google: 6bn daily searches
and indexing of over 50bn
web pages (2013).
http://data.bigdatastartups.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/HiRes-221.jpg
http://techcrunch.com/2014/08/10/big-data-bound-to-get-really-really-big-with-the-internet-of-things/
http://www.big4.com/big4-thought-leader-interviews/industrial-internet-strategy-must-urgently-embrace-big-data-analytics-new-survey-ge-accenture/?sf32764894=1
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 52
Predictive analytics
• 41% of FS org’s say
predictive analytics is
more about minimising
risk than exploiting
opportunities: SAP
73% say it would
help them to make
better offers to
their customers.
‘Life companies have been shockingly bad
at using customer data effectively.’
Phil Loney, Group Chief Executive, Royal London Group.
http://www.bankingtech.com/203462/predicting-the-future-in-financial-services/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 53
Engaging with technology
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) - we
will interact with it like humans.
• e-technology advanced:
– Fewer human interactions
– More strategic focus.
• Face & voice recognition that
identifies emotional changes.
• Holographic by 2015
• Haptic by 2020
Source: http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 54
Avatars
• Avatars are evolving into
sophisticated computer
generated images.
– Could monitor heart rate and
blood pressure as well as
provide medication reminders.
http://www.redorbit.com/media/uploads/2013/03/152946044-617x416.jpg
http://metro.co.uk/2014/03/03/future-of-healthcare-avatars-could-look-after-the-elderly-in-their-own-homes-4394762/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 55
Engaged through technology
By 2019
• 3D virtual reality displays.
• Embedded in glasses/contact lenses.
• Primary interfaces to connect with
other people, computers, the Web
and virtual reality. Kurzweil
• Linking our senses with other people’s
senses or machines.
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 56
Cognitive computing
• Already improved doctor
accuracy in diagnosing
lung cancer by 40%.
http://cdn.nextgov.com/media/img/upload/2013/03/21/032113chipNG/nextgov-medium.jpg
Watson
http://www.industrytap.com/supercomputer-watson-increasing-medial-diagnoses-accuracy/1314
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 57
Genomics
• £125 '23andMe' test can now
be used in the UK with caution.
• The price for genome
sequencing soon £66 ($100).
• NIB offer half-price genome
scans from personal genomics.
http://bgiamericas.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Cropped-DNA-01-1024x993.jpg
http://science.slashdot.org/story/12/05/28/1849248/the-race-to-1000-human-genome-sequencing
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/02/australian-insurance-company-offers-discounted-genome-scans-to-customers-read-the-fine-print/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 58
Gamification
• Over 50% of firms will
gamify their innovation
processes this year.
• Increasing public
participation in cocreating products and
services.
http://www.yourcarma.com.au/article/News/Speed-Camera-Lottery.aspx?id=59
Global Futures
& Foresight
http://mashable.com/2011/07/28/gamification/
Slide 59
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 60
Pace of change
• 40% worry that ‘...their
organisations will be unable
to keep up with technology
change and will lose their
competitive edge.’
http://www.visualphotos.com/photo/2x4577511/fast_moving_robot_technology_BLD017028.jpg
Technology is moving between 3-5
times faster than management.
Global Futures
& Foresight
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-23/davos-stalked-by-tech-disruption-as-intel-to-wal-mart-challenged.html
http://venturebeat.com/2014/04/05/these-three-trends-will-transform-how-employees-use-their-phones/
Slide 61
So much change
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
New thinking
New culture
New behaviours
New partners
New channels
New insights and offers
New customer engagement
New technologies
New business models
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 62
The future belongs
to those who
prepare for it today
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 63
Imagine it
If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead
Thank you
+44 7932 408901
[email protected]
www.thegff.com
www.linkedin.com/in/dasmith
davidsmithgff
gfftv
http://elm.neworldiq.com
Back from the Future
The Future of L&P
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 2
Financial Services Forum
Gordon Wilson
Group Managing Director
Welcome to our
Life & Pensions
Executive Dinner
Guest Speaker – David Smith – “Back from the Future”
Slide 3
Financial Services Forum
Jon May
Head of Sales, Financial Services
Welcome to our
Life & Pensions
Executive Dinner
Slide 4
Slide 5
Will Collective DC fly?
Are Lifestyle Funds dead?
Slide 6
Software Solutions
new world product
propositions
retirement income innovation
digitally enabled
customer centric
omni-channel
straight through processing
workflow driven
worksite delivery
heritage transformation
Slide 7
Guest Speaker
Back from the Future
Introducing David Smith
Chief Executive
Global Futures and Foresight
A unique insight into the future and
how to prepare for it
Slide 8
New Whitepaper
Slide 9
David Smith
Chief Executive
Global Futures and Foresight
Copyright © 2015 Global Futures and Foresight Limited
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 10
Data Processing
"I have travelled the length
and breadth of this country
and talked with the best
people, and I can assure you
that data processing is a fad
that won't last out the year."
The editor in charge of business
books for Prentice Hall, 1957.
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 11
... and the telephone
“The 'telephone' has too
many shortcomings to be
seriously considered as a
means of communication.
The device is inherently
of no value to us.”
Western Union internal memo, 1876.
Over 1.2 billion telephone lines
Over 7 billion mobiles
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 12
• Nokia was a phone company in a
world that stopped buying phones.
We now buy small computers
that also make calls.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/09/why-nokia-died-nobody-buys-phones-anymore/279337/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 13
Innovation
48 Years
1810
Ezra Warner of Waterbury, Connecticut patented the first can opener
1858
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 14
With change comes risk
• Root causes of declines in
public companies’ value:
• 60% strategic risks.
• 30% operational risks.
• 10% financial risks.
"the assumptions on which the
organization has been built and
is being run no longer fit reality.“
Peter Drucker
Global Futures
& Foresight
Source: Society of Actuaries (2013) : Enterprise Risk Management: Looking Forward
Slide 15
Mega trends
1.
Globalization
2.
Technology
3.
Environment
4.
Changes in work
5.
Demographics & people
6.
Consumption
Global Futures
& Foresight
http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/
Slide 16
GLOBAL
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 17
Global population growth
The global population is expected to rise from 6.5bn in 2005 to 7.7bn in 2020 and 9.6bn in 2050
www.watchblog.com
Source: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 18
“The size of the world economy will triple
over the next four decades as emergingmarket economies wield increasing power”
“World GDP to double within two decades”
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 19
Emerging global economic growth
• 70% from emerging economies - 2030.
• 6/10 fastest growing economies
are African.
• By 2020 - Asean economy doubles.
• China – No.2 insurance market in 10 yrs.
– 5 of top 10 insurance growth markets in
APAC in P&C and Life.
http://www.economist.com/node/17677746
“the rise of emerging markets is forcing insurers to
re-think their current business models...’
http://www.standardchartered.com/en/news-and-media/news/global/2013-11-06-super-cycle-EM-growth-is-key.html
http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/business-news/exports/daniel-peters-only-one-in-five-uk-smes-export-we-must-increase-that-number/6011.article
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 20
‘Middle Class’ consumption
100 million becoming ‘Middle Class’ every year
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 21
Global ageing by 2050
• Over 60’s:
– Mature economies - 22% to 33%.
– Developing world - 9% to 20%.
• 25% of China’s people over 65.
• Japan alone has 30% over 60.
– 64 countries will have by 2050.
http://www.global-ageing.eu/Bilder/collage.png
By the time a person born today is 80, their life
expectancy would have gone well past 110.
http://www.aicpa.org/RESEARCH/CPAHORIZONS2025/GLOBALFORCES/SOCIALANDHUMANRESOURCE/Pages/default.aspx
http://www.unescap.org/sdd/issues/ageing/ageing.asp
http://info.cancerresearchuk.org/cancerstats/world/demographics/demographic-facts-for-the-world-population
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 22
And we’re living longer lives
Human life expectancies have
the potential to reach 500 or
possibly even 1000.
Dr. Aubrey de Grey B.A.,
M.A. and Ph.D.,
University of Cambridge,
Cambridge, UK.
Born 20th April 1963
“In the near future, the next two
to four decades, the disease of
ageing will be cured.”
Robert A. Freitas Jr. is
Senior Research Fellow
at the Institute for
Molecular Manufacturing
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 23
Health and wellness
We are living longer but not necessarily healthier.
By 2030
• Overweight & obese
doubles to 3.3bn.
• Non-communicable
diseases to cost £29tn.
• Cancer rates jump 75%.
http://www.weforum.org/news/non-communicable-diseases-cost-47-trillion-2030-new-study-released-today http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21568065-world-getting-widersays-charlotte-howard-what-can-be-done-about-it-big http://www.webmd.com/cancer/news/20120531/global-cancer-rates-set-to-soar-by-2030
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 24
HEALTHCARE
Global Futures
& Foresight
http://www.pdesigni.com/news/show/1468
Slide 25
Getting older
• 10m people over 65 years.
– One in 6 people.
– By 2030 5½m more +65’s.
– By 2050 one in four.
• By 2020
– 3m more over 70.
– 36% of workers over 50.
http://cdni.wired.co.uk/620x413/o_r/oldpeople.jpg
In 2015, those aged 40+ will outnumber under-40s
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/key-issues-for-the-new-parliament/value-for-money-in-public-services/the-ageing-population/
http://www.hrreview.co.uk/hr-news/diversity-equality/cipd-urges-employers-to-embrace-ageing-workforce/40366
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9612708/One-in-four-will-retire-at-70-by-2028.html
http://www.hrmagazine.co.uk/hro/news/1075369/more-workers-continue-employment-past-age-65
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 26
UK Lifestyles
• 95% not even doing
minimum amount of
physical activity.
• Sedentary lifestyles leads
to more than 40 chronic
diseases.
http://www.breathslim.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/sedentary-life.jpg
Sedentary leisure time is expected to rise
in the UK by 52 hours per week by 2030.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-11442101
http://www.nhs.uk/news/2011/08August/Pages/half-of-uk-predicted-to-be-obese-by-2030.aspx
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 27
Health outlook
• 15m live with a long-term
condition.
• 18m within 20 years.
By 2030 one in two UK
workers could have a
long-term condition.
http://www.mondolithic.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Baseline-Magazine-Cover-UK-Health.jpg
http://medicalxpress.com/news/2013-02-exposure-pesticides-food-air-diabetes.html
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/oct/02/diabetes-charity-warns-health-calamity?newsfeed=true
http://www.fitforworkeurope.eu/Downloads/uk/Fit_for_Work_WEB.pdf
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 28
REDEFINING LATER LIFE
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 29
@65
• More than 1,700
British people reach
65 every day.
• 10.3m over 65.
• 15.5m by 2030.
Source: The TUC
35% of UK workers not contributing to any savings.
http://www.cii.co.uk/knowledge/insurance-institute-of-london/articles/pensions-101/31253
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/key-issues-for-the-new-parliament/value-for-money-in-public-services/the-ageing-population/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 30
Silver wealth UK
• 2002-2012, spending by
over-50s grew by £100bn.
• +50’s control 80% of wealth.
• 60s own 25% (£993bn) of
all property wealth.
http://www.english.rfi.fr/sites/english.filesrfi/imagecache/rfi_43_large/sites/images.rfi.fr/files/aef_image/old-people-actives.jpg
http://www.ey.com/UK/en/Industries/Financial-Services/Insurance/Beyond-2020---Forces-shaping-the-industry
http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/news/1283323/
http://www.lv.com/adviser/working-with-lv/news_detail/?articleid=3238383
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 31
Ageing workforce
• 2020: 36% of UK working
pop’n will be over 50.
• 20% don't expect to retire.
• 41% take a part-time job
in retirement to make up
for the shortfall in their
savings.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01802/retirement_1802700b.jpg
2028: 1 in 4 UK employees
could work until they’re 70.
http://www.hrmagazine.co.uk/hro/news/1075224/all-play-british-workers-dont-plan-reach-retirement-age
http://www.hrreview.co.uk/hr-news/diversity-equality/cipd-urges-employers-to-embrace-ageing-workforce/40366
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9612708/One-in-four-will-retire-at-70-by-2028.html
http://www.hrmagazine.co.uk/hro/news/1075369/more-workers-continue-employment-past-age-65
http://www.aviva.com/research-and-discussion/consumer-attitude-survey-2014/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 32
BUSINESS
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 33
Changed
Dynamics
Porter’s 5 Forces
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 34
Home equity release
• 2013, older homeowners
raised £1bn in home
equity release.
– 60% for home and garden
improvements.
– 21% to clear debt.
– Car upgrades, holidays and
helping younger relatives
financially also feature.
http://moneylendingexpert.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/equity-release-house-squeeze.jpg
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/455422/The-key-to-unlock-a-brighter-future-Look-at-the-rise-of-equity-release
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/455422/The-key-to-unlock-a-brighter-future-Look-at-the-rise-of-equity-release
http://www.cii.co.uk/media/5092528/beyond_2020_life__pensions_and_health_insurance.pdf
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 35
Reconfiguring the competition
• 30% believe new emerging
market insurers will move
into the developed world to
become global insurers.
• 28% see truly global markets.
PWC
http://www.trimsunlimited.com/global-markets.php
“the rise of emerging markets is forcing insurers to
re-think their current business models...’
http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/insurance/pdf/insurance-2020-turning-change-into-opportunity.pdf
http://www.pwc.com/us/en/press-releases/2012/2012-is-the-year-of-the-customer.jhtml
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 36
Emerging competition
• 89% of insurers say competition intensifies in distribution in 3 years.
• 64% say from non-insurance players - Google, Amazon, Walmart…
http://www.netrate.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Enhanced-Insurer-Agent-Connectivity-in-Insurance-Distribution-Chain.jpg
http://newsroom.accenture.com/news/insurance-sold-through-digital-channels-to-reach-25-billion-annually-in-europe-according-to-accenturestudy.htm?c=glb_accglbtwt_10000945&n=smc_0713#sf18286796
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 37
The industry is not delivering
• Customers trust L&P providers least
among all financial companies.
– Only 31% of L&P customers can
manage their policy the way they want.
– Only 38% say their L&P provider offers
value for money
– Only 37% say their insurer provides
clear and transparent comms.
http://juliayoga324.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/img_3277.png
– 39% products complicated & confusing.
Too complicated and confusing, difficult to
engage with and not great value for money
https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/insurance_financial_institutions_improve_p_c_profitability_premium_growth/
http://insuranceblog.accenture.com/getting-to-grips-with-the-switching-economy-in-insurance/?cid=fs_insblogfy14_10000255_smc_0913#sf22269992
http://newsroom.accenture.com/news/uk-life-insurance-customers-prefer-buying-policies-online-but-personal-touch-is-important-for-advice-according-to-accenture-research.htm
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 38
Reorientated business models
• From ‘inside-out’ to ‘outside-in.’
• A shift to a world of:
– Web-based.
– Decentralised.
– Front-office-oriented.
– Mobile.
– Touch-screen.
– Consumer-oriented.
– Co-creation
L&P providers face lower levels of
engagement and satisfaction than even
banks (44% vs. 60%)
Global Futures
http://www.theharteofmarketing.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/customer-centric-outside-in-reorg-harte.jpg
http://www.insurancetech.com/management-strategies/insurance-companies-embrace-emerging-tec/232200668
& Foresight
Slide 39
Value shifting outside the enterprise
• Organizations outnumbered by the
resources provided by their network.
• Business value from the social world.
– Crowdsourcing.
– Open and social supply chains.
– Open innovation.
– Co-creation.
– Social media marketing.
Sloan Review (MIT)
80% of executives worldwide say enterprisewide collaboration is the key to success.
Global Survey Enterprise Collaboration
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 40
TECHNOLOGY & COMMUNICATIONS
Change is coming
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 41
Three Horizons
Point of greatest
confusion
Entrepreneur
Horizon 3
Out there
Leader
In 2008
Horizon 2
New
Manager
Horizon 1
Core
Extend and defend Build emerging Create viable
businesses
options Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 42
Horizon 1
Technologies maturing now
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Mobile
Consumerisation of I.T. (BYOD)
Big data and analytics
Social
Cloud
Internet of Things
Telematics
Wearables
Artificial intelligence
Augmented reality
Avatars
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 43
Horizon 2
Technologies coming within 10 years
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Holographics
3D printing
Automation
Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles
Instant language translation
Cognitive computing
Haptic technology
Electronic nose
RNA based therapeutics
Vocal health diagnostics via smartphone
Next generation neuropharmacology
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 44
Horizon 3
Emerging technologies of 10yrs+
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Quantum computing
Prescriptive analytics
Smart dust
Programmable material
Neuroprosthetics
Brain-to-computer interfaces
Brain-to-brain interfaces
Geoengineering
Microscale 3D printing
Anti ageing interventions
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 45
First
differently
Thenwe
wedo
dothings
different
things
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 46
Mobile to 2018
telephone – computer - sensor
•
•
•
•
•
Mobile data traffic growth 61% cagr.
66% of devices – smartphones.
£29.99 Ubislate 7Ci
Speeds increase 2.6-fold.
15.9 Exabyte's/month. 69% video.
Functions:
–
–
–
–
–
Payments
Environment
Travel
Health & wellness
Context etc.
Mobile will remake insurance business models by 2020
http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/VNI-Forecast_QA.html/index.html
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 47
Wearables
• $19bn revenue by 2018.
– $1.4bn in 2013.
• 6% of businesses given
these to their staff...
– Next logical step.
• 21% already wear a
device or use App. to
track health.
http://s3files.core77.com/blog/images/2013/04/where-wearable-tech.jpg
‘For businesses - implications for systems development,
insight and analytics, leadership & competitive
advantage.’
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57607524-94/wearable-tech-revenue-to-hit-$19b-by-2018/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23579404
http://www.idgconnect.com/blog-abstract/3419/how-will-wearable-technology-impact-business-world
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 48
The mobile consumer in context
•
•
•
•
•
Where am I?
What am I doing?
Who’s around me?
Where am I going?
What would help me?
– Where
– What
– Who
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 49
The
postnetworks
e-mail era
Social
Adds $1.3tn per year – 66% through collaboration
• Changed the way we live.
• Social and political processes.
• Change the way we work.
• Global
• Work Swarms
• New Management processes.
• Collaborate around problems.
• Faster and more creative solutions.
20-25% improvement in productivity of
knowledge workers.
http://www.newmediatrendwatch.com/world-overview/137-social-networking-and-ugc
McKinsey Global Institute pdf, July 2012, ‘The Social Economy: Unlocking value and productivity through social technologies.’
Social Media
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 50
Internet of ‘Things’
By 2020
• One trillion sensors embedded in humans and machines.
• We will each own 50 internet connected devices.
99.4% of the 1.5 trillion physical objects in
the world are still unconnected.
http://www.industrytap.com/the-hybird-age/3651
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 51
Big data
• Every day we create 2.5
quintillion bytes of data:
– A new Google every 4 days.
• Google: 6bn daily searches
and indexing of over 50bn
web pages (2013).
http://data.bigdatastartups.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/HiRes-221.jpg
http://techcrunch.com/2014/08/10/big-data-bound-to-get-really-really-big-with-the-internet-of-things/
http://www.big4.com/big4-thought-leader-interviews/industrial-internet-strategy-must-urgently-embrace-big-data-analytics-new-survey-ge-accenture/?sf32764894=1
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 52
Predictive analytics
• 41% of FS org’s say
predictive analytics is
more about minimising
risk than exploiting
opportunities: SAP
73% say it would
help them to make
better offers to
their customers.
‘Life companies have been shockingly bad
at using customer data effectively.’
Phil Loney, Group Chief Executive, Royal London Group.
http://www.bankingtech.com/203462/predicting-the-future-in-financial-services/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 53
Engaging with technology
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) - we
will interact with it like humans.
• e-technology advanced:
– Fewer human interactions
– More strategic focus.
• Face & voice recognition that
identifies emotional changes.
• Holographic by 2015
• Haptic by 2020
Source: http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 54
Avatars
• Avatars are evolving into
sophisticated computer
generated images.
– Could monitor heart rate and
blood pressure as well as
provide medication reminders.
http://www.redorbit.com/media/uploads/2013/03/152946044-617x416.jpg
http://metro.co.uk/2014/03/03/future-of-healthcare-avatars-could-look-after-the-elderly-in-their-own-homes-4394762/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 55
Engaged through technology
By 2019
• 3D virtual reality displays.
• Embedded in glasses/contact lenses.
• Primary interfaces to connect with
other people, computers, the Web
and virtual reality. Kurzweil
• Linking our senses with other people’s
senses or machines.
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 56
Cognitive computing
• Already improved doctor
accuracy in diagnosing
lung cancer by 40%.
http://cdn.nextgov.com/media/img/upload/2013/03/21/032113chipNG/nextgov-medium.jpg
Watson
http://www.industrytap.com/supercomputer-watson-increasing-medial-diagnoses-accuracy/1314
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 57
Genomics
• £125 '23andMe' test can now
be used in the UK with caution.
• The price for genome
sequencing soon £66 ($100).
• NIB offer half-price genome
scans from personal genomics.
http://bgiamericas.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Cropped-DNA-01-1024x993.jpg
http://science.slashdot.org/story/12/05/28/1849248/the-race-to-1000-human-genome-sequencing
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/02/australian-insurance-company-offers-discounted-genome-scans-to-customers-read-the-fine-print/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 58
Gamification
• Over 50% of firms will
gamify their innovation
processes this year.
• Increasing public
participation in cocreating products and
services.
http://www.yourcarma.com.au/article/News/Speed-Camera-Lottery.aspx?id=59
Global Futures
& Foresight
http://mashable.com/2011/07/28/gamification/
Slide 59
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 60
Pace of change
• 40% worry that ‘...their
organisations will be unable
to keep up with technology
change and will lose their
competitive edge.’
http://www.visualphotos.com/photo/2x4577511/fast_moving_robot_technology_BLD017028.jpg
Technology is moving between 3-5
times faster than management.
Global Futures
& Foresight
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-23/davos-stalked-by-tech-disruption-as-intel-to-wal-mart-challenged.html
http://venturebeat.com/2014/04/05/these-three-trends-will-transform-how-employees-use-their-phones/
Slide 61
So much change
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
New thinking
New culture
New behaviours
New partners
New channels
New insights and offers
New customer engagement
New technologies
New business models
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 62
The future belongs
to those who
prepare for it today
Global Futures
& Foresight
Slide 63
Imagine it
If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead
Thank you
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Back from the Future
The Future of L&P
Global Futures
& Foresight