Transcript InstantSpot, a PanEuropean Model for Power Price

InstantSpot, a PanEuropean Model for Power Price and Flow
From Mkonline.com
Implicit Exchange & Price
InstantSpot MKonline
NO4
Explicit Exchange & Price
Not included in IS. Yet
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•
•
SE1
Exegenous exhange
NO3
NO5
SE2
NO1
NO2
38 Individual price areas
Price and flow simultaneously
Updates each 15 min, 24x7
Aim, continuous update, 10 sec intervals.
SE3
SE4
D1
D2
PL
BE
CZ
SK
HU
SI
NORD
RS
BA
CNOR
MK
BU
CSUD
MK
SUD
Price and Flow forecasts
Net Transfer Capacity Forecast
Ensemble forecasts too
PostFix update
Commnets 3 times a day
•
Free BETA avaialbel for
RO
HR
SARD
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•
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AL
RO
TRRO
BLT, TR, and parts of SEE
GR
SICI
AL
Info: [email protected], +47 9187 7970
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InstantSpot, Updates During Work Hours
EC12 Det and Ens
Spot arrives. Actual
simulated with overnight
pricefeed
updated
andinstant price
MKonline
you the
updated
info.
Spot
comments
EC00 Det arrives.
EC00 Ens arrives.
a comments
are translates MWh
development
and e.g.
are
issued
After
EC00
Ens
update.
ContinuousContinuous
update
update
issued
changes
into Euro/MWh for :
Las update
before
Includes
8:40-10:00
Cet par effect on price
-Priceinfo
area,
Fix Det update.
After EC00
from new info arriving
-When should you expect change
Includes info 6:41-8:00
between 5 and 6
-Why does it change
8:40-9:55
PostFix Update.
6:41-8:00
Info arriving 12-15
is included
EC12 Det and
Ens
-Prepinfo
for DA+1
simulated with
-Info on5-6.
Intraday
arriving between
-Info for Balance
EC00
Ens
EC00
Det
Cet par effect
on price from
12 and 15.
PostFix
Actuals
And on
Price calc.
And on
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06
07
08
09
10
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Pan European Price Formation, Montel conference 17.April 13
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And on
Evidence from the modelling:
A Lesson Learned:
40%
Started to include power
flow and control the
capacity assumptions.
This reduced the model
error dramatically
30%
St.Err, IS/Conv DE
MAE IS/Conv DE
Is on par with Conv
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
20-Jan
20-Feb
20-Mar
20-Apr
20-May
45%
St.Err, IS/Conv FR
40%
35%
MAE IS/Conv FR
30%
Is on par with Conv
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
20-Jan
20-Feb
20-Mar
20-Apr
20-May
200%
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
20-Jan
St.Err, IS/Conv NPA
MAE IS/Conv NPA
Is on par with Conv
20-Feb
20-Mar
20-Apr
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