Transcript Ethnic Irony or Ethnic Impact: Latinos and the 1996 Elections

Mexican Americans/Latinos
and National Elections
Mexican Americans and Politics
Lecture 13
February 21, 2006
Essay 2
Mexican Americans have not yet seen political
power commensurate with their numbers. In an
essay, asses what factors explain this gap in the
contemporary era (the period since the extension of
the VRA to Mexican Americans and other Latinos in
1975). What resources do Mexican American
communities have at their disposal today to
overcome the factors that you identify as reducing
their political influence?
Latino Electoral Participation,
1976- 2004
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Latino voters
Latino Share of the Total
Vote, 1976-2004
140,000,000
120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
Total
0
Votes
Latino 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Votes
Popular Perception of the
Importance of Latino Votes
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2000 and 2004—Both major party
candidates sought Latino votes
Karl Rove asserted that Republicans
needed 40 percent of 2004 Latino votes to
ensure Bush reelection
Why?—empowering influences
1.
2.
3.
4.
Population growth
Population concentration
The “expectations game”
Partisanship / partisan loyalty
But, Latinos Rarely Shape
Electoral Outcomes
Most dramatic examples

1988-2004—only one state’s presidential vote
changed by change in the Latino vote
2001 mayoral races in New York, Los Angeles,
and Houston
2003 California recall race


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Why?—dampening influences
1.
2.
3.
Non-U.S. citizenship
Demographics—age, income, education
Low competition for seats in Latino areas
Story Not All Negative


Incremental growth means steadily
increasing importance in close races
Villaraigosa victory in Los Angeles


A topic for Thursday
Next generation of possible national
candidates



Bill Richardson
Antonio Villaraigosa
?
How Can Latino Influence
Increase?

Controlled by Latino communities


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Out of their control




Community unity
An agenda of community needs and issues
Close races
Latino candidates
Party and candidate outreach
Mobilization


Voting not automatic
It helps when someone asks
Latinos and Presidential
Elections
Gap between rhetoric and reality most
evident
Change, if it is to occur, most likely to be
seen at the local level


2000 and 2004 Elections
in Retrospect

A new dynamic—Republican competition for
Mexican American votes


Symbolic outreach, little substantive outreach


Anticipating future electoral growth vs. the “ricochet
pander”
Candidates never spoke to Latino concerns or placed
Latinos in senior positions in their campaigns
Latino turnout remained low



Competitive states mostly not Latino states
Little Latino-driven mobilization
Few competitive local elections in Latino areas
Are Republicans Making Inroad
Among Mexican Americans?

Story mostly focuses on presidential politics


Some targeted Republican outreach to specific
constituencies, e.g. fundamentalist churches, some
outreach to the newly naturalized
But, little change in registration patterns



Little change in Republican share of Mexican American registered
voters since 1980s
Long-term question among Mexican Americans who have weak
connections to larger community
2004 may signal a change in “national” presidential
politics
National Exit Poll Reported 4143% Latino Support for Bush

Up from 29-38% support in 2000
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Ranges in both years indicate problems with exit
polling of Latinos
Did Bush gain in 2004?
Did he gain as much as the poll suggests?
For Next Time
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
Why didn’t the Bustamante candidacy
excite the Mexican American electorate?
Why didn’t Bustamante win?

What changes would have had had to occur
for him to win?