Transcript Document
Greater Manchester
Forecasting Model
2012 Report
December 2012
Contents
Executive summary
Annex A – local summary tables
Contacts and content
■ Summary tables – Bolton
Macro context
■ Summary tables – Bury
Changes to the outlook
North West outlook
Greater Manchester outlook
Summary local authority forecasts
■ Bolton
■ Bury
■ Manchester
■ Oldham
■ Summary tables – Manchester
■ Summary tables – Oldham
■ Summary tables – Rochdale
■ Summary tables – Salford
■ Summary tables – Stockport
■ Summary tables – Tameside
■ Summary tables – Trafford
■ Summary tables – Wigan
■ Rochdale
■ Summary tables – Greater Manchester
■ Salford
■ Summary tables – North West
■ Stockport
■ Summary tables – UK
■ Tameside
■ Trafford
■ Wigan
Contact information
Executive summary
UK economy has disappointed
UK GDP Forecasts: GMFM 2011 and GMFM 2012
2011
2012
2013
2014
GMFM11
1.3%
1.8%
3.0%
3.0%
GMFM12
0.9%
-0.1%
1.2%
2.3%
Global growth began 2012 on an upward trajectory but lost momentum as the year proceeded as the Eurozone
economy slipped back into recession at the start of the year.
The UK economy is forecast to contract slightly in 2012 although recent quarterly data has finally seen a return to
GDP growth. Consequently, the short term outlook has been revised downwards from our 2011 forecast to reflect the
deterioration in global conditions and continued risk posed by the Eurozone crisis.
The level of aggregate demand in the UK economy is currently below the productive potential of the economy, which
has led to a negative output gap, with GDP still more than 3% below its previous peak..
More encouragingly, employment has continued to rise at a UK level over the last six months. If GDP and labour
market data is taken at face value, it would imply an unprecedented decline in productivity. We think that the reality
probably lies somewhere between the two and that the economy is growing on an underlying basis, but at a weak
pace which is some way behind the long-term trend. Additionally employment data could mask a shift towards parttime workers and self employment, i.e. more ‘under employment’.
Growth will continue to be led by private export orientated sectors encompassing many professional services ,such
as legal, finance, insurance, consulting, computer related services and R&D, as domestic demand remains weak and
government austerity measures continue.
4
Greater Manchester continues to lead the North West
Greater Manchester employment growth
(millions) 1992-2022
Greater Manchester key indicators
Employees growth (000s)
Employment growth (000s)
Resident employment (000s)
Population (000s)
GVA (£bn)
Households (000s)
1998-2008
98.2
115.2
-11.8
87.2
9.3
84.9
2008-2012
-39.3
-35.9
37.6
92.6
-1.1
54.7
2012-2022
86.0
91.9
-15.9
143.4
14.6
105.1
Source: GMFM
Jobs growth is forecast to return in 2012 but will remain
modest. Peak levels of employment achieved in 2007 are not
forecast to return until 2018. It will also not be until then that
Greater Manchester returns to ‘trend’ growth (see chart).
1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Source : GMFM
Over 2012-2022 92,000 jobs are forecast which is 20% lower
than the jobs that were created over 1998-2008. This job
creation is dependent on continued growth within business
and professional services.
Greater Manchester annual GVA growth, 19952022
% annual
5.0
GVA is expected to remain flat in 2012 reflecting the weak UK
performance. However, we forecast that between 2012-2022
growth will average 2.7% per annum. This is higher than our
previous report as we assume the UK output gap will close by
2025 requiring faster growth in the medium term.
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
1992
1996
-2.0
-3.0
Both growth in employment and GVA over 2012-2022 will be
above the regional rate at 0.7% and 2.4% compared to 0.4%
and 2.4% respectively.
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Comparative performance
Greater Manchester employment growth in the short run, is
expected to be lower than our 2011 report given weak labour
market data for the area. However from 2015 onwards
employment is anticipated to grow faster than the regional
average.
Total employment growth, 2008-2021
(2008=100)
2008=100
108
UK
106
North West
Greater Manchester
104
Greater Manchester will continue to lead the North West
recovery due to its comparatively high concentration of
professional services and other key attributes, such as a
skilled workforce. These services export orientated services
are expected to drive the recovery.
102
100
98
96
94
2008
The productivity gap between the UK and the North West
(and Greater Manchester) will remain wide and unchanged
over the forecast period. This reflects the comparative
performance of Southern regions which are forecast to lead
UK growth. Compared to these areas, the North West is
more dependent upon manufacturing, public services and
consumer demand-led sectors, where jobs growth will be
weaker.
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Source : GMFM
GVA per employee (£000s), 1998-2021
£000s
52
UK
North West
47
Greater Manchester
42
37
32
27
1998
2002
Source : GMFM
2006
2010
2014
2018
District overview
% per annum
3.5
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Population is anticipated to grow in all areas,
primarily driven by natural increase as net migration
falls over the forecast period.
Wigan
Trafford
Tameside
Stockport
Salford
Rochdale
Oldham
0.0
Manchester
Manchester, Salford and Trafford, as in GMFM11,
are forecast to have the biggest increases in
employment over the coming decade (accounting
for 68% of the Greater Manchester total). These
areas perform comparatively better than the other
districts due to their sector structures, especially a
higher concentration of business and professional
services.
GVA
3.0
-0.5
Employment
Bury
All districts, except Manchester, Trafford and Bury,
experienced job losses over 2008-2012. Given
other indicators such as unemployment this is likely
to not reflect the overall trend during the recession.
Those districts accounting for the largest job losses
were Stockport (36%), Rochdale (22%) and
Tameside (13%). These districts were particularly
affected by contractions in one or more of the
following sectors - construction, consumer led
sectors and the public sector.
Bolton
Employment and GVA average annual growth,
2012-2022
Source : GMFM
Population and employment change, 2012-2022
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Greater Manchester
Source: GMFM
2008-2012
Population
Employment
(000s)
(000s)
7.8
-6.8
4.0
0.3
35.9
6.0
5.5
-3.5
4.2
-7.8
11.0
-1.8
3.3
-14.8
4.3
-3.7
8.9
0.6
7.5
-4.4
92.6
-35.9
2012-2012
Population
Employment
(000s)
(000s)
10.5
4.7
7.8
2.3
53.7
44.8
11.5
5.5
8.5
3.8
21.4
17.5
8.8
4.1
5.1
2.2
8.3
2.1
7.8
5.0
143.4
91.9
Contacts and Content
Contacts
For more information please contact:
Commission for the New Economy:
■ Alex Roy , Head of Research
– 0161 237 4408
– [email protected]
Oxford Economics team:
■ Kerry Houston, Lead Economist
–
08449792363
–
[email protected]
■ Miriam Ferrari, Senior Economist
– 028 9252 8614
– [email protected]
9
Model overview
The Greater Manchester Forecast Model (GMFM) was originally designed as part of
the Manchester/Salford Pathfinder project and is now managed by the Commission for
the New Economy.
The model provides economic, demographic and housing forecasts for the North West
Local Authorities.
The model is unique in providing a link between housing and the economy and the
model has undergone a number of developments since its inception.
For this round of forecasting the model has been rebuilt to incorporate SIC 2007 and
has incorporated a number of technical changes.
Annex A provides summary data for each of the Greater Manchester districts.
Annex B lists the main variables available within the model.
Key Aims
The GMFM model has a number of key aims:
■ A consistent evidence base for Greater Manchester for use in strategy and policy development.
■ A set of ‘base case’ forecasts for the conurbation prepared by a leading independent
forecasting house (Oxford Economics).
■ A starting point for looking at scenarios or alternate futures.
■ A ‘trigger’ mechanism to raise awareness of a wide range of emerging issues, for example
impact of migration, housing development etc.
■ An information resource collating a wide range of data in a central location and in a consistent
manner.
■ A tool to help capacity building within Greater Manchester with respect to understanding and
using forecast material.
GMFM 2012 rebuild - key changes detailed
SIC2007 GMFM model
SIC2003 GMFM model
Employment/GVA by 52 sectors
Employment/GVA by 56 sectors
Employment by full-time/part-time by broad
sector
Employment by male/female/full-time/part-time
by broad sector
Population split by 3 categories (working age,
children and elderly)
Population by 5 year age band
Occupations
Sector footprints
Floorspace
Housing
Occupations and replacement demand
Sector footprints
Carbon emissions
Floorspace
Housing
Post 2009 LAD definitions
Pre 2009 LAD definitions
Data – 2012 updates
New data included
New global, UK, North West outlooks
New data
■ BRES (2010 and 2011)
■ Census and mid-year population estimates (2011)
■ Housing stock, house prices, completions, vacancies and demolitions
■ Earnings
■ Resident employment (2011)
■ Unemployment
■ Regional GVA (2009 prices)
■ Personal sector (regionally)
Macro context
Global conditions
Global growth began 2012 on an upward trajectory
but lost momentum as the year proceeded. We
forecast growth for 2012 as a whole at just 2.2%,
picking up to 2.5% in 2013.
The weakness of the Eurozone was an important
drag on world growth in 2012. The Eurozone
economy slipped back into recession at the start of
the year with GDP forecast to decline by 0.4% over
the whole year. And with substantial public and
private sector deleveraging necessary in the years to
come we expect the Eurozone economy to act as a
drag on world growth for some time.
Oxford Economics Long-Term Forecast
Overview
2002-2011
GDP Growth
US
Eurozone
Japan
China
UK
World (at PPP)
2012-2021
1.4
1.0
0.6
9.6
1.3
3.3
Source: Oxford Economics
A number of key emerging economies also saw slowing growth in 2012, including Brazil, India
and China. A sustained slowdown in growth in these countries is a key forecast risk.
A more positive long-term story is in the US, given relatively favourable demographics an
improving energy balance and the gradual emergence from the housing slump.
We forecast world GDP growth at 4.1% p.a. from 2012-2021.
15
2.9
1.2
1.3
7.7
2.1
4.1
UK recovery
Forecast for UK
(Annual percentage changes unless specified)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Domestic Demand
Private Consumption
Fixed Investment
Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
Government Consumption
Exports of Goods and Services
-0.4
-1.1
-2.4
0.4
0.2
4.5
0.6
0.4
1.4
0.0
2.2
-0.2
1.2
1.0
2.6
0.4
-1.2
3.0
1.8
2.2
5.9
0.3
-2.0
5.5
2.0
2.6
6.2
0.3
-2.6
5.2
2.1
2.9
4.8
0.3
-2.4
4.7
Imports of Goods and Services
0.5
2.1
2.8
4.0
3.9
3.5
GDP
0.9
-0.1
1.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
Source: Oxford Economics
UK: GDP
% year
6
GDP
Forecast
4
2
0
-2
The latest GDP data for Q3 2012 suggests the
UK economy has moved out of recession but
excluding a number of important one-off factors
(namely the comparison with Q2 which had
one fewer working day than usual) and the
inclusion of sales of tickets and television rights
from hosting the Olympic Games, underlying
growth remained well below trend.
Given survey data information for Q4 2012
points to a slowdown, GDP growth for the year
is likely to be broadly flat (we forecast at -0.1%
for the year). Although consumer prospects
have started to improve given lower inflation
levels and higher employment levels.
The growth outlook is still relatively weak and
downside risks prominent, especially with fiscal
policy unlikely to provide further support.
-4
-6
-8
1990
1993
1996
1999
Source: Oxford Economics
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
UK recovery (cont.)
UK: Exports of goods (exc fuels & erratics)
%3m-on-3m, yr ago
25
Another important aspect of the recovery will be the
performance of UK exports. Recent data points to a
slump in word trade which has hit UK exporters to
the EU in particular.
Non-EU
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
EU
-15
-20
-25
2007
2008
Source : Haver Analytics
2009
2010
2011
2012
Given the downgraded growth in the Eurozone and
that we expect the Euro to weaken further, leading
sterling to gain around 7% on a tradeweighted basis
over the next three to four years, we have
downgraded our expectations for UK export growth
in the short term.
Over the longer term continued growth in the export
of goods and services will remain an important
source of GDP growth - growing at 3.5% pa over
2012-2021.
UK – Understanding the output gap
The level of aggregate demand in the economy is
currently below the productive potential of the economy,
which has led to a negative output gap, with GDP still
more than 3% below its previous peak..
UK: Actual & potential output
2009 prices, £ billion
500
Forecast
460
420
380
The main source of damage has been to total factor
productivity, with tight credit conditions hindering the
allocation of capital to productive activities and causing a
reduction in spending on research & development
activities. Alongside this, the collapse in business
investment constrained the contribution of growth in the
capital stock to potential output. Business investment
recovery has been very weak and remains more than
15% below pre-crisis levels.
340
Potential
300
260
220
Actual
180
140
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Source: Oxford Economics
UK: Supply-side performance
% year
8
6
Productivity
growth
Forecast
GDP growth
The contribution of the labour supply to potential output
has largely held up. Thus far, migration has remained
strong and activity rates have continued to increase
amongst the older age groups, partly due to the gradual
increase in the state retirement age for women and partly
a legacy of persistently low rates of saving forcing older
people to supplement low pension incomes.
18
4
2
0
-2
-4
Output gap
-6
-8
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Source: Oxford Economics
UK – Understanding the output gap (cont.)
We believe that the bulk of the damage to potential output growth has already occurred and expect it
to recover from this point onwards. Large corporate cash piles offer the potential for a strong recovery
in business investment, as the global economy recovers, albeit it is unlikely to improve at a rate
sufficient to regain levels consistent with the pre-recession trend.
The upward trend in activity rates is likely to continue given that the state pension age will rise to 66 by
2020 for both men and women, although the pace of inward migration is likely to cool due to the
deterioration in UK employment prospects and the narrowing of relative wage differentials caused by
the weak pound.
Although we expect GDP to pickup to average 2.6% pa over 2017-2021, the output gap is not
expected to close until well into the next decade.
19
UK: Finances and Policy
The disappointing growth performance has led
directly to an overshoot in borrowing, which is
entirely a result of weak government revenues.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had
forecast that central government receipts would
increase by 3.7%during 2012/13, but for the first
seven months of the year, growth has been just
0.4%.
UK: Public sector finances
% of GDP
100
% of GDP
14
* Maastricht definition
12
Governmen
10
t deficit
(LHS)
8
90
80
Government
debt*
(RHS)
6
70
60
4
50
2
40
0
F'cast
-2
The Autumn Statement contained 38 different tax
and spending measures, but it is difficult to
envisage them doing too much to alter the growth
outlook. The greater short-term focus on capital
spending looks sensible, but in doing this the
Chancellor has been far too timid.
30
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Source: Oxford Economics
UK: Contribution of government consumption
and investment to GDP growth
% of GDP
1.4
F'cast
Average 1980-97
1
0.6
With consumer demand still relatively weak and
government spending remaining muted the focus
will be on private sector investment and export
demand to drive the recovery.
0.2
-0.2
-0.6
1980
1984
1988
1992
Source: Oxford Economics
20
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
UK – Labour market and productivity puzzle
There has been an upward revision in the
employment outlook for the UK since the last
report, reflecting the consistent increase in
employment over the last six months.
Increasing employment levels despite the poor
GDP performance have meant actual
productivity levels are substantially lower, at 14%
in the latest data, than the pre-recession trend
would indicate.
Were we to take both the GDP and labour
market data at face value, it would imply an
unprecedented decline in productivity. We think
that the reality probably lies somewhere between
the two and that the economy is growing on an
underlying basis, but at a weak pace which is
some way behind the long-term trend.
Additionally employment data could mask a shift
towards part-time workers and self employment,
i.e. more ‘under employment.
UK: Employment
millions
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Source : GMFM
UK: Output per worker
2009=100
120
115
Pre-recession
trend
110
14%
105
100
Actual
95
90
85
80
75
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Source : Haver Analytics
21
UK sectoral outlook
Sectoral employment change, UK, 1998-2022,000s
1998-2008
2008-2012
Agriculture
-57
1
Mining and Quarrying
-16
0
Manufacturing
-1423
-211
Electricity, gas & water
-18
38
Water supply, sewage & waste
4
28
Construction
439
-268
Wholesale and retail trade
179
-151
Transport and storage
200
-13
Accommodation and food service
267
109
Information and Communications
251
50
Financial and insurance activities
87
-75
Real estate activities
187
-17
Professional and scientific activities
634
226
Admin and support services
557
4
Public admin and defence
145
-149
Education
532
-1
Human Health & social work activities
809
240
Arts, entertainment & recreation
219
25
Other personal services
88
22
Total employment
3085
-144
Source: Oxford Economics
Note: Top 3 changes shaded in blue and bottom 3 shaded in red
2012-2022
-41
-17
-277
-13
-25
262
485
170
204
142
15
84
523
480
-175
-119
64
164
141
2067
* Professional and business services comprises information & communication, financial & insurance
activities, real estate activities, professional & scientific activities and admin & support services
22
.
The employment outlook, driven by
international demand, remains dependent on
professional services*, accounting for 60% of
total jobs growth over 2012-2022. Local areas
with a concentration of these services have the
most favourable labour market outlooks.
The manufacturing sector will continue to lose
jobs but at a much slower pace than the
previous decade and at a rate below our
previous report. This is due to upward revisions
to the UK forecast to reflect an export led
recovery in the longer term.
The public sector will continue to contract over
the forecast period as the austerity drive is
predicted to continue although from 2015
onwards will depend on future spending
reviews.
Employment growth over the coming decade
will also be strong within wholesale & retail
trade as recovery gets underway and real
incomes begin to recover.
UK outlook – detailed forecast
Forecast for the UK
(Annual percentage changes unless specified)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Domestic Demand
Private Consumption
Fixed Investment
Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
Government Consumption
Exports of Goods and Services
-0.4
-1.1
-2.4
0.4
0.2
4.5
0.6
0.4
1.4
0.0
2.2
-0.2
1.2
1.0
2.6
0.4
-1.2
3.0
1.8
2.2
5.9
0.3
-2.0
5.5
2.0
2.6
6.2
0.3
-2.6
5.2
2.1
2.9
4.8
0.3
-2.4
4.7
2.3
2.9
3.7
0.3
-0.5
3.8
2.5
2.9
2.9
0.3
1.0
3.4
2.6
2.7
2.7
0.3
1.8
3.3
2.6
2.7
2.6
0.3
2.3
3.3
2.6
2.7
2.6
0.3
2.4
3.3
2.6
2.6
2.6
0.3
2.4
3.4
Imports of Goods and Services
0.5
2.1
2.8
4.0
3.9
3.5
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
GDP
Industrial Production
CPI
Current Balance (% of GDP)
Government Budget (% of
GDP)
Short-Term Interest Rates (%)
Long-Term Interest Rates (%)
Exchange Rate (US$ per £)
Exchange Rate (Euro per £)
0.9
-0.8
4.5
-1.9
-8.2
-0.1
-1.8
2.8
-3.8
-6.8
1.2
0.2
2.4
-2.8
-7.1
2.3
1.3
1.7
-2.4
-5.8
2.4
1.1
1.6
-2.1
-4.4
2.5
0.9
1.6
-1.7
-2.9
2.6
1.0
1.8
-1.5
-1.7
2.6
1.1
1.9
-1.3
-1.3
2.6
1.3
2.0
-1.3
-1.2
2.6
1.3
2.0
-1.2
-1.2
2.6
1.4
2.0
-1.1
-1.2
2.6
1.5
2.0
-1.0
-1.2
0.89
3.12
1.60
1.15
0.84
1.92
1.58
1.23
0.52
1.91
1.58
1.25
0.52
2.14
1.53
1.27
0.52
2.42
1.53
1.31
0.68
2.98
1.54
1.31
1.61
3.56
1.54
1.32
2.65
4.08
1.54
1.32
3.69
4.54
1.55
1.32
4.58
4.88
1.55
1.31
4.70
4.99
1.55
1.30
4.70
5.00
1.56
1.29
Source: Oxford Economics
Downside risks to Oxford Economics’ forecast
Political stress
US fiscal cliff (10%)
Eurozone exit(s) (25%)
■ Stalemate in the House implies much
larger fiscal tightening than in baseline
■ Confidence negatively affected
■ Additional QE and weaker US$ to
provide only partial offsets
■ Trade and financial linkages lead to
global slowdown
■ Seeing the negative effects the House
agrees on stimulus package after 2
quarters
Oxford forecast (50%)
■ Fiscal austerity in Greece becomes
unbearable; government falls.
■ Similar developments in other
peripheral countries as growth and jobs
fail to return
■ Run on banks, massive shock to
confidence, debt defaults
■ Scenario of Greek exit in 2013Q3.
Scenario of multiple exits in 2014Q1.
China hard landing (10%)
■ Steps to ensure Eurozone survival are
taken, although they are not enough to
kick start significant growth
■ Risk premia fall, and consumer and
business confidence gradually recover
■ Recovery limited by public and private
deleveraging and weak job growth
■ EMs robust as policy eases and
growing middle class support
consumer spending and trade
■ Commercial property crash & external
weakness leads to banking sector
stress
■ Flight from risk leads to falling share &
property prices
■ Investment slumps in China as
government recapitalises banks
■ Asian supply chain affected as domestic
engine of growth stalls
Corporate stress
Changes to the outlook
Key changes
Greater Manchester: Population change,
000s
2011
GMFM11
2651.5
GMFM12
2685.4
Diff
33.9
Source: GMFM
2012
2667.8
2701.7
33.9
Greater Manchester: Employment change,
000s
2011
GMFM11
1273.3
GMFM12
1258.6
Diff
-14.7
Source: GMFM
26
2012
1270.4
1269.8
-0.6
Greater Manchester: GVA, annual
growth rate
GMFM11
GMFM12
Diff
Source: GMFM
2011
1.7
0.4
-1.3
2012
1.6
0.0
-1.5
Population has been revised upwards in the new
forecast by approximately 33,900 in 2011,
reflecting the 2011 Census results.
Employment is 14,700 jobs lower than under
GMFM2011, reflecting weaker than expected
employment data.
GVA has been rebased to 2009 prices and is
therefore not directly comparable in absolute
terms. The growth rate for 2010-11 has been
revised downwards to 0.4%, reflecting the weaker
UK GVA performance.
Key reasons for the changes
Population
The 2011 Census revealed that population is higher than expected. Overall in Greater Manchester
there were 58,800 extra persons compared to the rolled forward (to census day) 2011 mid-year
population estimate. The population differences were most pronounced in Manchester (28,100),
Trafford (8,700) and Wigan (7,000).
ONS have stated that given birth and death rates are mandatory the main causes for the
inaccuracies are potential problems with the 2001 population base and the measurement of net
international migration.
Despite GMFM predicting population to be higher than official population estimates for some time
the overall level has been revised upwards for GMFM12 to incorporate the 2011 census figures.
Employment
The level of employment in 2011 (the latest data point) has been revised downwards from
GMFM11 to account for data changes. The BRES figures for 2011 are weaker than anticipated in
our last report and therefore the employment forecast begins from a lower point than previously.
Direct comparisons between BRES 2011 and 2010 data at a sector level is an issue due to
changes in survey methodology.
GVA
27
GVA figures for GMFM11 and GMFM12 are not directly comparable in absolute terms but the
growth rates are now lower for 2011 and 2012 to account for the weaker UK GDP performance
and downgrading of the overall UK forecast.
Population and migration
Population, Greater Manchester, 1991-2022
000s
2850
GM GMFM 11 (RHS)
2800
GM GMFM 12 (RHS)
Population by 2022 is forecast to reach 2.85m
compared to 2.80m under GMFM2011. The
outlook is now higher due to the higher starting
point in 2011, accounting for the Census result.
ONS will release a revised population dataset for
2001-2010 in April 2013 and it is our
understanding that the 2001 population figure will
not change. The pattern from 2002-2010 will
therefore be revised through migration.
2750
2700
2650
2600
2550
2021
2019
2017
2015
2011
2013
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
2500
Source : GMFM
Migration in Greater Manchester: Oxford vs.
SNPP, 1992-2021
000s
20
15
GMFM2012
GMFM2011
SNPP 2010
SNPP2011
5
0
-5
-10
1996
Source : GMFM
2000
As migration is economically driven in GMFM it
is expected to fall over 2012-2022 as the
economy continues to recover modestly.
A new set of sub national population projections
for 2011 have been released which are more
similar to GMFM’s migration forecast than the
2010 based projections.
10
-15
1992
Oxford Economics have created a new 20022010 estimate of migration to take account of the
2011 Census result, in the absence of the new
series from ONS.
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
There are however strong revisions between the
two sets of SNPPs at a district level. For
instance under SNP2011 net migration is
forecast to be -27,400 over 2012-2021,
compared to 4,400 under SNPP2010.
Total employment
Employment, Greater Manchester, 1991-2022
000s
1400
GM GMFM 11 (RHS)
1350
GM GMFM 12 (RHS)
Employment projections have been
revised downwards in the short run to
account for the baseline BRES data for
2011.
Over the long run total employment is
forecast to grow by 92,000 over 20122022 compared to 99,000 under
GMFM11. The slightly weaker long term
outlook is due to downward revisions to
the UK economic performance.
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
1050
Source : GMFM
The level of employment in GM is not
forecast to return to the 2007 peak until
2017. This compares to 2015 in our last
report and reflects the weaker baseline
data and short run outlook.
Unemployment & GVA
Unemployment, Greater Manchester, 1991-2022
000s
140
GM GMFM 11 (RHS)
120
The unemployment outlook has been revised
upwards over the longer run reflecting the
higher population forecast for the area.
GM GMFM 12 (RHS)
100
80
60
40
20
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
0
Source : GMFM
GVA, Greater Manchester, 1991-2022
%
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
GM GMFM 11 (RHS)
-5.00
GM GMFM 12 (RHS)
-6.00
Source : GMFM
Similarly the GVA outlook over the short term
is weaker in GMFM12 compared to GMFM11
due to the weak UK GDP performance and
relatively muted recovery. Over the longer
term we forecast GVA to grow faster than in
the GMFM11 figures in order for the UK to
close the output gap by 2025.
North West Outlook
North West - Overview
North West: GVA growth, 1991-2022
The sluggish economic recovery continues with
negative GVA growth in 2012 of -0.7% compared to
0.0% in the UK. Growth of more than 2% is not set to
return until 2014. The North West forecast is weaker
than the UK as the recovery is still anticipated to be
export led and led by the southern regions with more
favourable sectoral structures.
The employment outlook remains sluggish for the
North West with peak employment levels being
reached in 2019.
The level of jobs growth projected in many sectors is
modest with professional services growing more
slowly than the UK average. The contraction of the
public sector will continue to exert downward
pressure.
% annual
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
Source : GMFM
North West: Employment outlook, 1991-2022
3510
3460
3410
3360
3310
3260
3210
3160
3110
3060
3010
1991
1995
Source : GMFM
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
North West - Sector Outlook
North West: Employment by broad sector, 000s
Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Water supply, sewage & waste
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport and storage
Accommodation and food service
Information and Communications
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional and scientific activities
Admin and support services
Public admin and defence
Education
Human Health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other personal services
Total employment
1998-2008
0
-1
-197
-2
3
66
-16
33
9
18
19
21
58
57
7
63
100
20
17
275
2008-2012
-1
0
-44
8
2
-51
-6
-15
25
-8
-10
-2
38
6
-18
-12
24
-5
-5
-75
2012-2022
-4
0
-34
-1
-3
19
52
15
22
9
2
7
41
40
-23
-18
0
12
13
149
The employment outlook for 2012-22 is
much slower than the previous decade
due to the continued contraction of the
public sector (collectively representing
a loss of 41,000 jobs).
Manufacturing will also continue to
contract as the sector becomes less
labour intensive (with GVA and
therefore productivity set to increase).
Professional services* remain key to
the outlook, collectively accounting for
66% of total jobs growth over the
coming decade.
The wholesale & retail sector will also
remain an important source of
employment growth as real incomes
recover and downward pressure on
consumer spending is alleviated.
For the North West, accommodation
and food services is also forecast to
grow significantly, given the region’s
tourism sector and food and drink
expertise.
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
* Professional and business services comprises information & communication, financial & insurance
activities, real estate activities, professional & scientific activities and admin & support services
.
North West – Labour Market
North West: Unemployment level and rate, 1985-2022
Unemployment levels remain higher than in the
recent past averaging 5.2% over 2011-22. This is
due to the sluggish labour market outlook but rates
could be even higher depending upon how the
welfare reforms in 2013 play out. A large number of
people currently claiming long term sickness and
disability payments may move onto the
unemployment register following the introduction of
Universal Credit and Personal Independence
Payment.
Natural increase is expected to continue to be the
main source of population growth within the North
West. The migration outlook is tied to labour market
prospects and anticipated to fall to a small outflow
in the short run due to limited job opportunities and
sluggish recovery.
Unemployment
rate
14.5
Unemployment
480
430
12.5
380
10.5
330
280
Unemployment
(LHS)
230
180
Unemployment
rate (RHS)
8.5
6.5
4.5
130
80
2.5
1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
Source : GMFM
North West: Net migration and natural increase,
1992-2022
40.0
30.0
Natural
increase
20.0
000s
10.0
0.0
1992
Migration
1996
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Greater Manchester
Greater Manchester - Overview
Greater.Manchester: GVA growth, 1995-2022
The forecast continues to suggest that Greater Manchester will
lead the North West recovery. GVA and employment are
forecast to grow at 2.7% and 0.7% per annum over 2012-22
respectively, compared to 2.4% and 0.4% on a regional basis.
The level of employment growth will also exceed the UK
average of 0.6% whilst overall GVA growth is anticipated to be
similar to the national rate.
Greater Manchester’s recovery is stronger than the North West
due to a higher share of professional services within the
economy, which the private sector led recovery depends upon.
% annual
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
Source : GMFM
Greater Manchester: Employment outlook
Growth rate comparison, 2012-2022, % per annum
000s
1400
Employment
Population
GVA
Source: GMFM
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1991
1995
Source : GMFM
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Greater
Manchester
0.7%
0.5%
2.7%
North West
0.4%
0.4%
2.4%
UK
0.6%
0.6%
2.7%
Greater Manchester – Sector Outlook
Greater Manchester: Change in employment, 000s
Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Water supply, sewage & waste
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport and storage
Accommodation and food service
Information and Communications
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional and scientific activities
Admin and support services
Public admin and defence
Education
Human Health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other personal services
Total employment
1998-2008
1
0
-82
-3
2
22
-7
15
7
9
12
10
35
21
6
14
38
7
8
115
2008-2012
0
0
-16
6
0
-33
-7
-9
14
-2
-3
0
14
2
-7
-1
7
2
-3
-36
2012-2022
0
0
-12
-1
-1
8
24
7
10
4
2
4
24
22
-7
-5
3
6
5
92
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
* Professional and business services comprises information & communication, financial & insurance
activities, real estate activities, professional & scientific activities and admin & support services
37
.
The positive labour market outlook is
dependent on the growth of professional
and business services * in GM
(accounting for 67% of total growth over
2012-2022).
As the economy grows over 2012-2022
the wholesale & retail sectors are
anticipated to create 19,000 jobs as real
incomes begin to rise increasing
consumer spending.
Manufacturing job losses will be much
more modest over 2012-22 than they
were over the previous decade. Despite
the continued employment decline the
GVA forecast is positive given we expect
continued improvements in productivity.
Public services (public admin, education &
health) are forecast to lose 9,000 jobs
between now and 2022. The future of the
public sector, especially beyond 2015, is
uncertain, and largely dependent on
further spending cuts, and how these are
tackled.
Greater Manchester – labour market
Greater Manchester: Unemployment level and rate, 1991-2022
Unemployment
150
Unemployment rate
Over the last six months unemployment levels,
using the claimant count measure, have fallen
slightly in Greater Manchester. Although this is
encouraging the short term outlook is for
unemployment levels to continue to rise, peaking
at 6.3% in 2013. This reflects the weaker
labour market in the short run and sluggish
recovery in the longer term. It will also be
important to monitor the impact of the welfare
reforms on the overall level of people joining the
unemployment register.
The migration outlook remains uncertain over
the forecast period given the recent high levels
of net in-migration despite the weak economy.
The GMFM forecast remains highly dependent
on the economy and therefore migration is
negative over the forecast period. Official
estimates now also anticipate that there will be
out migration , however, given the data issues
surrounding measures of international migration
it remains a uncertainty in the forecast.
Natural increase is expected to continue to be
the main source of population growth
12.5
130
110
10.5
Unemployment
(LHS)
8.5
90
6.5
70
Unemployment
rate (RHS)
50
30
1991 1995
Source : GMFM
4.5
2.5
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Greater Manchester: Net migration and natural
increase, 1991-2022
30.0
25.0
Natural
increase
20.0
15.0
10.0
000s
5.0
0.0
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
Source : GMFM
Migration
Summary local authority forecasts
Note: More detailed forecasts for each Local Authority are provided in the accompanying Excel
model outputs.
Note: Employment data for districts is available up to 2011 (indicated on charts with a solid line).
Regional data up to 2012 (indicated on charts with a dotted line) allows for a reasonable estimate
of district employment
Data dashboard – 2011
Performance 2011, annual % growth rate
Employment
% growth
-2.1
-1.6
-0.3
0.4
-4.3
-1.1
-2.1
-3.3
1.0
-5.7
-1.6
GVA
% growth
0.5
-0.7
0.4
1.6
-1.8
3.0
-0.1
0.0
2.8
-3.9
0.4
Population
% growth
0.6
0.5
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.8
0.6
0.7
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Greater Manchester
Source: GMFM
Greenshading denotes performance above GM average and red below GM
40
Unemployment
% growth
4.4
3.3
3.7
6.0
4.0
1.8
-2.7
2.6
-0.6
-1.7
2.3
Data dashboard – forecast period 2012-2021
Performance 2012-22, annual % growth rate
Employment
% growth
0.4
0.3
1.3
0.6
0.5
1.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.7
GVA
% growth
2.3
2.3
3.3
2.4
2.4
3.3
2.4
2.1
2.5
2.3
2.7
Population
% growth
0.4
0.4
1.0
0.5
0.4
0.9
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.5
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Greater Manchester
Source: GMFM
Greenshading denotes performance above GM average and red below GM
41
Unemployment
% growth
-2.4
-2.4
-1.5
-2.2
-2.4
-1.5
-2.4
-2.5
-2.5
-2.4
-2.1
Forecasts for districts - Bolton
Bolton: Employment outlook
Bolton: Key indicators
000s
155
`
150
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
1991
Bolton
2012
2022
278.6
289.1
99.7
104.1
14.4
14.7
114.1
118.8
8.6
6.7
112.8
118.0
66.2
68.1
-11.9
-13.6
3725.6
4688.0
118.8
127.1
Change
2012-2022
3.8 (%)
4.4 (%)
2.1 (%)
4.1 (%)
-1.8 (000s)
5.2 (000s)
1.9 (pp)
-1.8 (000s)
2.1 (% pa)
8.2 (000s)
Source: GMFM
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Source : GMFM
Bolton: Unemployment (000’s)
Bolton: GVA outlook (% pa)
000's
GM, %
-1.7
-5.2
2.3
0.4
0.0
1.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
pp diff
-0.1
-3.1
-2.1
0.1
-0.8
0.2
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012-2022
Source: GMFM
Bolton, %
-1.8
-8.2
0.2
0.5
-0.8
1.7
2.4
2.3
2.3
Source : Nomis, claimant Count
GM
2012-2022
5.3 (%)
7.7 (%)
4.0 (%)
7.2 (%)
-20 (000s)
67.8 (000s)
1.0 (pp)
2.6
2.4 (% pa)
-
Forecasts for districts – Bolton labour market
Bolton: Change in employment
Bolton: Net migration and natural increase
Natural
increase
2.0
1.5
1.0
000s
0.5
0.0
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Source : GMFM
Migration
Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Water supply, sewage & waste
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport and storage
Accommodation and food service
Information and Communications
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional and scientific activities
Admin and support services
Public admin and defence
Education
Human Health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other personal services
Total employment
1998-2008
0.0
0.0
-8.6
-0.6
-0.5
2.6
-1.9
0.6
1.2
0.7
1.6
1.5
0.7
0.7
1.6
1.5
0.7
0.8
-0.1
2.4
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-2.9
0.0
0.3
-3.2
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.1
-0.6
-0.3
0.8
0.1
-0.6
-0.3
0.8
-0.4
-0.9
-6.8
2012-2022
0.0
0.0
-1.4
0.0
-0.2
0.6
2.8
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.4
1.4
0.3
0.1
0.4
1.4
1.1
0.4
4.7
Forecasts for districts - Bury
Bury: Employment outlook
Bury: Key indicators
000s
76
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
75
74
73
72
71
70
69
Bury
2012
186.2
60.9
12.2
73.2
4.7
81.0
71.4
-13.5
2417.9
79.3
2022
194.0
63.1
12.3
75.5
3.7
85.5
73.0
-16.2
3031.6
85.2
Change
2012-22
4.2 (%)
3.6 (%)
0.8 (%)
3.1 (%)
-1 (000s)
4.5 (000s)
1.6 (pp)
-2.7 (000s)
2.0 (% pa)
5.9 (000s)
Source: GMFM
68
67
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
Bury: Unemployment (000’s)
2019
Source : GMFM
000's
6
Bury: GVA Outlook (% pa)
5
GM, %
-1.7
-5.2
2.3
0.4
0.0
1.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
pp diff
2.9
1.8
0.2
-1.1
2.0
-0.7
-0.5
-0.5
-0.4
4
3
2
1
0
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012-2022
Source: GMFM
Bury, %
1.2
-3.4
2.5
-0.7
2.0
0.8
2.1
2.3
2.3
Source : NOMIS, claimant count
GM
2012-22
5.3 (%)
7.7 (%)
4.0 (%)
7.2 (%)
-20 (000s)
67.8 (000s)
1.0 (pp)
2.6
2.4 (% pa)
-
Forecasts for districts – Bury labour market
Bury: Net migration and natural increase
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
Natural
increase
0.4
0.2
000s
0.0
1992
-0.2
1996
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Migration
Bury: Change in employment
Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Water supply, sewage & waste
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport and storage
Accommodation and food service
Information and Communications
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional and scientific activities
Admin and support services
Public admin and defence
Education
Human Health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other personal services
Total employment
1998-2008
0.1
0.0
-6.3
0.0
0.5
-0.1
-1.1
0.7
0.2
1.9
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.8
1.2
4.6
0.6
0.6
4.4
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
-0.2
-0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.3
2.0
0.0
-0.8
-0.2
0.4
0.0
-0.2
0.3
2012-2022
0.0
0.0
-0.8
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.9
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.4
-0.4
-0.4
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.3
Forecasts for districts - Manchester
Manchester: Employment outlook
Manchester: Key indicators
000s
390
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
370
350
330
310
290
270
250
1991
Manchester
2012
2022
508.3
562.0
310.4
352.5
24.2
26.9
334.7
379.4
20.1
17.3
205.1
222.4
57.8
56.7
89.5
108.3
13363.4
18484.3
219.5
253.0
Change
2012-22
10.6 (%)
13.5 (%)
11.4 (%)
13.4 (%)
-2.8 (000s)
17.3 (000s)
-1.1 (pp)
18.8 (000s)
3.0 (% pa)
33.4 (000s)
GM
2012-22
5.3 (%)
7.7 (%)
4.0 (%)
7.2 (%)
-20 (000s)
67.8 (000s)
1.0 (pp)
2.6
2.4 (% pa)
-
Source: GMFM
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Source : GMFM
Manchester: Unemployment (000’s)
Unemployment
Manchester: GVA Outlook (% pa)
000's
22
GM, %
-1.7
-5.2
2.3
0.4
0.0
1.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
pp diff
-0.4
0.1
-0.9
-0.1
0.4
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.6
20
18
16
14
12
10
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Manchester, %
2008
-2.1
2009
-5.1
2010
1.4
2011
0.4
2012
0.5
2013
2.6
2014
3.3
2015
3.3
2012-2022
3.3
Source: GMFM
Source : Nomis, claimant count
Forecasts for districts – Manchester labour market
Manchester: Net migration and natural increase
12.0
10.0
Natural
increase
8.0
6.0
4.0
000s
2.0
0.0
1992
-2.0
1996
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Migration
Manchester: Change in employment
Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Water supply, sewage & waste
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport and storage
Accommodation and food service
Information and Communications
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional and scientific activities
Admin and support services
Public admin and defence
Education
Human Health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other personal services
Total employment
1998-2008
0.1
0.0
-9.5
-0.3
-0.2
-3.2
-6.8
8.3
2.6
0.8
6.0
2.2
13.7
7.3
4.1
6.9
8.3
2.1
2.0
44.3
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.1
0.1
-1.4
2.9
-5.2
8.3
-1.2
-2.0
0.6
7.0
-2.0
-3.3
-0.1
3.3
0.3
-1.2
6.0
2012-2022
0.0
0.0
-1.5
0.0
-0.1
1.5
9.5
3.1
5.1
1.6
0.9
1.1
13.3
6.9
-1.7
-0.5
2.2
1.7
1.8
44.8
Forecasts for districts - Oldham
Oldham: Employment outlook
Oldham: Key indicators
000s
94
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
1991
Oldham
2012
2022
226.8
238.3
72.8
77.7
11.6
12.2
84.4
89.9
7.8
6.2
90.7
96.7
66.2
67.5
-11.4
-12.6
2798.6
3557.3
93.2
100.5
Change
2012-22
5.1 (%)
6.7 (%)
4.9 (%)
6.5 (%)
-1.5 (000s)
6 (000s)
1.3 (pp)
-1.2 (000s)
2.2 (% pa)
7.3 (000s)
Source: GMFM
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Source : GMFM
Oldham: Unemployment (000’s)
Unemployment
Oldham: GVA Outlook (% pa)
000's
9
Oldham, %
-3.2
-5.6
0.8
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.5
2.4
2.4
GM, %
-1.7
-5.2
2.3
0.4
0.0
1.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
pp diff
-1.5
-0.4
-1.5
1.1
1.7
0.4
-0.1
-0.4
-0.3
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012-2022
Source: GMFM
Source : Nomis, claimant count
GM
2012-22
5.3 (%)
7.7 (%)
4.0 (%)
7.2 (%)
-20 (000s)
67.8 (000s)
1.0 (pp)
2.6
2.4 (% pa)
-
Forecasts for districts – Oldham labour market
Oldham: Net migration and natural increase
Natural
increase
2.0
1.5
1.0
000s
0.5
0.0
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
-0.5
Migration
-1.0
-1.5
Source : GMFM
2020
Oldham: Change in employment
Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Water supply, sewage & waste
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport and storage
Accommodation and food service
Information and Communications
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional and scientific activities
Admin and support services
Public admin and defence
Education
Human Health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other personal services
Total employment
1998-2008
0.1
0.0
-13.0
0.0
0.5
1.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.4
-0.7
0.6
1.5
2.8
0.5
0.1
6.2
0.4
0.2
0.8
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.4
-2.7
1.8
1.0
-0.1
0.3
0.0
-0.3
-1.3
-0.2
0.1
0.5
-0.3
0.2
-3.5
2012-2022
0.0
0.0
-1.2
0.0
-0.1
1.2
2.3
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.9
-0.4
-0.5
0.3
0.3
0.4
5.5
Forecasts for districts - Rochdale
Rochdale: Employment outlook
Rochdale: Key indicators
000s
Rochdale
2012
2022
212.9
221.4
66.4
69.8
424.7
429.4
77.8
81.6
7.8
6.2
84.1
88.7
64.1
65.1
-13.6
-15.2
2511.4
3168.1
88.8
95.3
95
93
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
91
89
87
85
83
81
79
77
75
1991
Change
2012-22
4.0 (%)
5.1 (%)
1.1 (%)
4.9 (%)
-1.7 (000s)
4.7 (000s)
1.0 (pp)
-1.6 (000s)
2.1 (% pa)
6.4 (000s)
Source: GMFM
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Source : GMFM
Rochdale: Unemployment (000’s)
Unemployment
Rochdale: GVA Outlook (% pa)
GM, %
-1.7
-5.2
2.3
0.4
0.0
1.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
pp diff
-7.7
-1.9
-0.9
-2.3
-4.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012-2022
Source: GMFM
Rochdale, %
-9.4
-7.1
1.4
-1.8
-4.1
1.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
000's
9
Source : Nomis, claimant count
GM
2012-22
5.3 (%)
7.7 (%)
4.0 (%)
7.2 (%)
-20 (000s)
67.8 (000s)
1.0 (pp)
2.6
2.4 (% pa)
-
Forecasts for districts – Rochdale labour market
Rochdale: Net migration and natural increase
Natural
increase
12.0
10.0
8.0
000s
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1992
Migration
1996
-2.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Rochdale: change in employment
Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Water supply, sewage & waste
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport and storage
Accommodation and food service
Information and Communications
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional and scientific activities
Admin and support services
Public admin and defence
Education
Human Health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other personal services
Total employment
1998-2008
0.0
0.0
-6.1
0.1
0.0
0.8
-1.0
0.6
1.2
0.6
-0.2
0.6
3.4
1.3
1.2
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.9
4.2
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-2.1
0.0
0.0
-0.8
-1.7
-1.5
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
-0.3
0.5
-1.6
-0.8
0.8
0.3
0.2
-0.1
-7.8
2012-2022
0.0
0.0
-1.2
0.0
-0.1
0.8
1.4
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.1
1.4
0.6
-0.5
-0.5
0.0
0.3
0.4
3.8
Forecasts for districts - Salford
Salford: Employment outlook
Salford: Key indicators in Salford
000s
145
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
Salford
2012
2022
236.7
259.0
114.2
126.5
11.4
12.3
125.7
138.8
8.1
6.7
98.6
106.1
64.8
65.7
9.9
12.0
4857.4
6555.8
105.5
118.9
Change
2012-22
9.4 (%)
10.8 (%)
7.8 (%)
10.5 (%)
-1.4 (000s)
7.4 (000s)
0.8 (pp)
2.1 (000s)
2.7 (% pa)
13.4 (000s)
GM
2012-22
5.8 (%)
7.1 (%)
3.8 (%)
6.7 (%)
-20 (000s)
63.5 (000s)
1.9 (pp)
1146.2
2.4 (% pa)
-
Source: GMFM
100
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Source : GMFM
Salford: Unemployment (000’s)
Unemployment
Salford: GVA Outlook (% pa)
000's
10
GM, %
-1.7
-5.2
2.3
0.4
0.0
1.3
2.6
2.7
2.7
pp diff
3.8
0.2
0.7
2.5
-0.9
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012-2022
Source: GMFM
Salford, %
2.1
-5.0
3.0
2.9
-0.9
1.5
2.9
3.0
3.0
Source : Nomis, claimant count
Forecasts for districts – Salford labour market
Salford: Net migration and natural increase
4.0
3.0
Natural
increase
2.0
000s
1.0
0.0
1992
1996
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
Migration
2008
2012
2016
2020
Salford: Change in employment
Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Water supply, sewage & waste
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport and storage
Accommodation and food service
Information and Communications
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional and scientific activities
Admin and support services
Public admin and defence
Education
Human Health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other personal services
Total employment
1998-2008
-191
13
-7853
-121
490
3016
-1341
2032
1140
546
4465
1390
5107
2602
-957
2005
5821
128
-218
18076
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
2008-2012
-12
10
-1693
8
32
-4067
1180
-1070
2549
748
-1069
-158
-270
3416
-432
-1752
-931
548
-235
-3197
2012-2022
-34
-6
-917
-39
-89
1151
1851
450
1264
546
279
308
2120
5549
-655
-181
638
482
454
13171
Forecasts for districts - Stockport
Stockport: Employment outlook
Stockport: Key indicators
000s
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
152
147
142
137
Change
2012-22
3.1 (%)
3.3 (%)
1.6 (%)
3.0 (%)
-1.3 (000s)
6.3 (000s)
2.5 (pp)
-3.6 (000s)
2.1 (% pa)
8.9 (000s)
GM
2012-22
5.3 (%)
7.7 (%)
4.0 (%)
7.2 (%)
-20 (000s)
67.8 (000s)
1.0 (pp)
2.6
2.4 (% pa)
-
Source: GMFM
132
127
1991
Stockport
2012
2022
284.0
292.7
115.7
119.5
20.0
20.3
135.7
139.7
6.1
4.8
124.4
130.8
72.9
75.4
-2.9
-6.6
5150.8
6513.1
125.7
134.6
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
Stockport: Unemployment (000’s)
2019
Source : GMFM
Unemployment
000's
8
Stockport: GVA Outlook (% pa)
GM, %
-1.7
-5.2
2.3
0.4
0.0
1.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
7
pp diff
4.5
-0.8
1.9
-0.5
-4.1
-1.3
-0.6
-0.3
-0.4
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012-2022
Source: GMFM
Stockport, %
2.8
-5.9
4.2
-0.1
-4.1
0.2
2.1
2.4
2.4
Source : Nomis, claimant count
Forecasts for districts – Stockport labour market
Stockport: Net migration and natural increase
Natural
increase
1.5
1.0
000s
0.5
0.0
1992
1996
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Migration
Stockport: Change in employment
Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Water supply, sewage & waste
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport and storage
Accommodation and food service
Information and Communications
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional and scientific activities
Admin and support services
Public admin and defence
Education
Human Health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other personal services
Total employment
1998-2008
0.3
0.0
-7.0
-0.8
0.3
12.4
-2.7
0.6
1.9
1.3
1.5
0.3
4.3
2.4
1.3
0.0
3.3
0.5
1.1
20.9
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-1.8
4.0
0.1
-11.9
-2.3
-2.9
-0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.9
-0.5
-0.1
0.7
0.1
-0.8
-14.8
2012-2022
0.0
0.0
-1.4
-0.4
-0.1
1.0
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.3
1.3
1.7
-0.7
-0.8
0.2
0.5
0.7
4.1
Forecasts for districts - Tameside
Tameside: Employment outlook
Tameside: Key indicators
000s
95
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
90
85
80
75
Tameside
2012
2022
220.2
225.3
64.2
66.4
11.6
11.8
75.9
78.1
7.1
5.5
92.0
96.8
67.4
70.9
-19.7
-22.5
2685.5
3321.1
96.2
102.0
Change
2012-22
2.3 (%)
3.3 (%)
1.0 (%)
3.0 (%)
-1.6 (000s)
4.8 (000s)
3.5 (pp)
-2.8 (000s)
1.9 (% pa)
5.8 (000s)
Source: GMFM
70
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
Tameside: Unemployment (000’s)
2019
Source : GMFM
Unemployment
000's
Tameside: GVA Outlook (% pa)
GM, %
-1.7
-5.2
2.3
0.4
0.0
1.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
pp diff
-4.6
3.2
-2.7
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
-0.4
-0.7
-0.6
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Tameside, %
2008
-6.3
2009
-1.9
2010
-0.4
2011
0.0
2012
-0.2
2013
1.8
2014
2.2
2015
2.0
2012-2022
2.1
Source: GMFM
8
Source : Nomis, claimant count
GM
2012-22
5.3 (%)
7.7 (%)
4.0 (%)
7.2 (%)
-20 (000s)
67.8 (000s)
1.0 (pp)
2.6
2.4 (% pa)
-
Forecasts for districts – Tameside Labour market
Tameside: Net migration and natural increase
1.5
Natural
increase
1.0
000s
0.5
0.0
1992
1996
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
Migration
2020
Tameside: Change in employment
Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Water supply, sewage & waste
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport and storage
Accommodation and food service
Information and Communications
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional and scientific activities
Admin and support services
Public admin and defence
Education
Human Health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other personal services
Total employment
1998-2008
0.2
0.0
-8.6
-0.6
0.3
1.1
2.7
-0.2
0.3
0.4
-0.6
0.4
0.2
0.8
0.1
1.2
3.1
0.5
-0.1
1.2
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-1.7
0.6
-0.2
-2.3
-0.1
-0.3
0.6
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.5
0.6
-0.8
0.6
-0.1
-0.1
-3.7
2012-2022
0.0
0.0
-1.4
-0.1
0.0
0.5
2.6
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
0.3
0.3
2.2
Forecasts for districts - Trafford
Trafford: Employment outlook
Trafford: Key indicators
000s
155
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
Trafford
2012
2022
228.7
237.0
123.9
126.2
14.2
14.1
138.2
140.2
4.6
3.6
99.2
103.1
70.8
72.0
11.6
6.9
5782.7
7413.6
101.0
108.2
Change
2012-22
3.6 (%)
1.8 (%)
-1.2 (%)
1.5 (%)
-1 (000s)
3.9 (000s)
1.1 (pp)
-4.7 (000s)
2.2 (% pa)
7.1 (000s)
GM
2012-22
5.3 (%)
7.7 (%)
4.0 (%)
7.2 (%)
-20 (000s)
67.8 (000s)
1.0 (pp)
2.6
2.4 (% pa)
-
Source: GMFM
115
110
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Trafford: Unemployment (000’s)
Source : GMFM
Unemployment
000's
Trafford: GVA Outlook (% pa)
GM, %
-1.7
-5.2
2.3
0.4
0.0
1.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
pp diff
-0.4
2.4
1.5
2.3
-2.2
-2.1
-0.8
-0.1
-0.2
5
4
3
2
1
0
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012-2022
Source: GMFM
Trafford, %
-2.1
-2.8
3.9
2.7
-2.1
-0.7
1.8
2.7
2.5
6
Source : Nomis, claimant count
Forecasts for districts – Trafford labour market
Trafford: Change in employment
Trafford: Net migration and natural increase
2.5
2.0
Natural
increase
1.5
1.0
000s
0.5
0.0
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
-0.5
Migration
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Source : GMFM
Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Water supply, sewage & waste
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport and storage
Accommodation and food service
Information and Communications
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional and scientific activities
Admin and support services
Public admin and defence
Education
Human Health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other personal services
Total employment
1998-2008
0.1
0.0
-6.9
-0.4
0.4
2.3
4.2
1.8
-3.4
2.5
0.0
1.3
4.5
-1.0
0.4
1.1
1.7
1.1
1.1
10.8
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-1.1
1.3
0.2
-3.2
-3.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.8
0.4
0.0
4.6
3.1
0.4
0.4
-0.4
0.1
-0.6
0.6
2012-2022
0.0
0.0
-1.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
-2.1
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.5
1.7
1.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
0.6
0.5
2.1
Forecasts for districts - Wigan
Wigan: Employment outlook
Wigan: Key indicators
000s
Wigan
2012
2022
319.5
327.3
93.2
97.9
15.7
15.9
108.8
113.8
9.3
7.3
139.9
146.2
70.8
73.2
-38.4
-40.4
3877.6
4865.1
138.4
147.3
118
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
116
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
1991
Change
2012-22
2.4 (%)
5.1 (%)
1.5 (%)
4.6 (%)
-2 (000s)
6.3 (000s)
2.4 (pp)
-2 (000s)
2.0 (% pa)
8.9 (000s)
GM
2012-22
5.3 (%)
7.7 (%)
4.0 (%)
7.2 (%)
-20 (000s)
67.8 (000s)
1.0 (pp)
2.6
2.4 (% pa)
-
Source: GMFM
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Wigan: Unemployment (000’s)
Source : GMFM
Unemployment
000's
Wigan: GVA Outlook (% pa)
GM, %
-1.7
-5.2
2.3
0.4
0.0
1.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
pp diff
2.7
-1.7
-5.8
2.2
-1.6
-1.5
-0.7
-0.2
-0.4
10
8
6
4
2
0
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012-2022
Source: GMFM
Wigan, %
1.0
-6.9
-3.5
2.7
-1.5
0.0
2.0
2.5
2.3
12
Source : Nomis, claimant count
Forecasts for districts – Wigan labour market
Wigan: Net migration and natural increase
2.0
Natural
increase
1.5
1.0
000s
0.5
0.0
1992
Migration
1996
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Wigan: Change in employment
Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Water supply, sewage & waste
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport and storage
Accommodation and food service
Information and Communications
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional and scientific activities
Admin and support services
Public admin and defence
Education
Human Health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other personal services
Total employment
1998-2008
0.5
0.0
-7.9
0.0
0.5
1.8
0.9
1.0
1.3
0.1
-0.3
0.9
1.4
3.9
-1.4
1.1
2.8
1.1
0.8
8.3
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-2.7
0.0
-0.3
-4.3
-1.6
0.1
1.3
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.9
-0.2
0.1
2.1
0.3
0.3
-4.4
2012-2022
-0.1
0.0
-1.2
0.0
-0.1
0.7
2.3
0.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.6
1.5
-0.7
-0.8
-0.1
0.6
0.5
5.0
Annex A: Summary tables
Note: Below is a selection from the detailed forecasts provided to
each Local Authority in the accompanying Excel model outputs.
Summary tables - Bolton
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64)
Residence employment rate (16-64)
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64)
Unemployment rate (15-64)
Output
Total GVA (£2009m)
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
271
165
173
0.5
-0.3
0.8
273
166
174
1.1
0.0
1.1
276
167
175
1.1
-0.4
1.5
277
170
176
0.0
-0.5
0.5
279
170
176
0.0
-0.4
0.4
280
171
177
0.0
-0.3
0.3
281
171
178
-0.3
-0.3
0.0
283
171
179
-0.4
-0.3
-0.1
284
172
180
-0.4
-0.3
-0.1
285
172
180
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
286
172
181
-0.5
-0.2
-0.3
290
173
184
-0.6
-0.2
-0.4
293
168
185
-0.7
-0.2
-0.5
294
164
186
-0.7
-0.1
-0.6
107
14
121
108
118
71.5
68.1
-10
5
3.8
2.2
104
14
118
105
114
68.4
65.3
-9
8
6.3
3.6
100
15
115
102
113
67.6
64.7
-11
8
6.2
3.6
99
14
113
99
112
65.9
63.7
-12
8
6.6
3.8
100
14
114
101
113
66.2
63.9
-12
9
7.0
4.0
101
14
115
102
113
66.3
63.9
-12
9
7.1
4.0
101
14
116
102
114
66.6
64.0
-12
9
7.0
3.9
102
15
116
103
115
66.9
64.1
-12
8
6.8
3.8
102
15
117
103
115
67.2
64.2
-12
8
6.6
3.6
103
15
117
104
116
67.5
64.4
-12
8
6.3
3.5
103
15
118
104
117
67.7
64.5
-13
8
6.0
3.3
104
15
119
104
118
68.4
64.3
-14
7
5.3
2.9
103
15
118
103
118
70.0
63.6
-15
6
4.8
2.6
103
15
118
103
119
72.6
63.7
-16
6
4.6
2.5
4033
93
3726
92
3735
91
3754
92
3726
91
3790
91
3881
91
3972
91
4063
91
4158
91
4255
91
4802
91
5334
91
5868
91
114
119
116
120
117
121
118
121
119
121
120
122
121
123
122
124
123
125
123
126
124
127
128
130
131
133
133
136
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.0
-0.4
0.4
0.6
1.6
0.6
-1.1
-0.1
-1.0
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.5
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.4
0.0
0.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.4
1.2
0.5
0.9
0.3
0.4
-0.5
12.4
0.4
0.2
-3.0
0.0
-2.6
-2.9
-3.6
-3.1
-2.8
1.1
64.5
2.5
1.4
-3.2
3.3
-2.4
-2.5
-0.5
-0.9
-0.7
-2.0
-3.5
-0.1
-0.1
-1.2
-7.8
-2.1
-2.6
-1.0
-1.7
-1.0
-1.6
4.4
0.4
0.2
0.7
6.5
1.4
1.6
0.9
0.3
0.3
0.6
7.7
0.4
0.2
0.9
-0.1
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.2
2.2
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.9
-0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.1
-0.2
-2.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.1
-0.2
-3.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.1
-0.3
-4.3
-0.3
-0.2
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.1
-0.3
-4.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
1.7
-2.7
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.1
1.1
-1.9
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.5
0.0
1.5
-1.1
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-2.2
-7.6
-0.9
0.2
-0.6
0.5
1.2
-0.8
-0.8
1.7
-0.4
2.4
-0.1
2.3
-0.1
2.3
-0.1
2.3
-0.1
2.4
0.0
2.4
0.0
2.2
0.0
1.9
0.0
3.0
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.2
0.4
0.9
0.4
0.7
-0.2
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64) pp
Residence employment rate (16-64) pp
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64) pp
Unemployment rate (15-64) pp
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
2023-28
avg pa
2028-33
avg pa
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Bolton (continued)
Table 3: Total Employment by sector
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Mining & quarrying
Manufacturing, of which:
Food products, beverages & tobacco
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
Wood, paper products & printing
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products
Basic metals & metal products
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
Machinery & transport equipment
Other Manufacturing & repair
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
Construction
Wholesale & retail trade
Transportation & storage
Accommodation & food service activities
Information & communication
Financial & insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific & technical activities
Administrative & support service activities
Public administration & defence
Education
Human health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other service activities
Total
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
0.3
0.1
14.9
2.9
1.2
1.3
0.7
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.4
1.6
0.2
0.7
10.6
22.2
6.1
5.9
2.1
4.1
2.4
5.9
8.8
6.0
10.0
14.2
2.5
3.9
120.9
0.3
0.1
13.9
2.9
1.1
1.3
0.8
1.3
1.8
1.0
1.6
2.0
1.0
0.6
10.7
21.4
5.4
6.1
2.0
3.6
2.2
5.8
8.1
5.6
9.7
15.3
2.8
3.1
117.7
0.3
0.1
11.9
2.6
1.2
1.2
0.7
1.3
1.7
0.5
1.3
1.6
0.2
0.7
9.6
21.4
6.0
5.5
2.2
3.3
2.1
6.4
8.8
5.2
9.6
15.7
3.0
3.0
114.9
0.3
0.1
11.9
2.4
1.0
1.5
0.7
1.2
1.8
0.7
1.5
1.0
0.1
0.9
7.3
21.7
6.2
6.0
2.1
3.4
2.0
6.4
8.2
4.5
10.5
14.9
3.0
3.1
112.5
0.3
0.1
12.0
2.4
1.0
1.5
0.8
1.2
1.8
0.7
1.6
1.0
0.1
1.0
7.5
22.4
6.4
6.5
2.1
3.4
2.1
6.7
8.4
4.1
10.3
14.8
2.8
3.1
114.1
0.3
0.1
11.8
2.4
1.0
1.5
0.8
1.2
1.8
0.6
1.6
1.0
0.1
0.9
7.5
23.4
6.4
6.5
2.2
3.4
2.1
6.8
8.5
4.0
10.2
14.8
2.9
3.1
115.0
0.3
0.1
11.7
2.4
1.0
1.4
0.7
1.2
1.8
0.6
1.5
1.0
0.1
0.9
7.7
23.7
6.5
6.6
2.2
3.5
2.2
7.0
8.7
3.8
10.1
14.6
2.9
3.2
115.7
0.3
0.1
11.6
2.4
1.0
1.4
0.7
1.2
1.7
0.6
1.5
1.0
0.1
0.9
7.8
24.0
6.7
6.7
2.2
3.5
2.2
7.2
8.9
3.7
9.9
14.5
3.0
3.2
116.3
0.3
0.1
11.5
2.4
1.0
1.4
0.7
1.2
1.7
0.6
1.5
1.0
0.1
0.9
7.9
24.2
6.8
6.8
2.3
3.5
2.3
7.3
9.0
3.5
9.7
14.4
3.1
3.3
116.8
0.3
0.1
11.3
2.4
0.9
1.4
0.7
1.2
1.7
0.6
1.5
0.9
0.1
0.8
8.0
24.5
6.8
6.8
2.3
3.5
2.3
7.5
9.2
3.4
9.6
14.4
3.2
3.3
117.4
0.3
0.1
11.1
2.3
0.9
1.4
0.7
1.1
1.7
0.6
1.5
0.9
0.1
0.8
8.0
24.7
6.9
6.9
2.3
3.5
2.4
7.7
9.3
3.4
9.6
14.4
3.2
3.4
118.0
0.3
0.1
10.3
2.2
0.8
1.3
0.6
1.1
1.5
0.5
1.3
0.9
0.1
0.7
8.1
25.1
6.8
6.9
2.4
3.5
2.6
8.1
9.5
3.2
9.4
14.6
3.4
3.5
118.8
0.3
0.0
9.5
2.1
0.7
1.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
0.5
1.2
0.8
0.1
0.6
8.1
25.0
6.7
6.9
2.5
3.6
2.7
8.5
9.6
3.0
9.2
14.7
3.5
3.5
117.9
0.3
0.0
8.7
2.0
0.7
1.1
0.5
0.9
1.3
0.4
1.1
0.7
0.1
0.6
8.2
24.8
6.5
6.8
2.5
3.6
2.9
8.9
9.7
2.9
9.1
14.9
3.7
3.5
117.6
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
5.7
-24.5
-8.1
-7.6
-14.8
-10.5
-17.3
-10.9
-7.9
10.6
-16.2
-2.5
-22.7
-10.3
-9.5
-1.7
-3.0
39.0
-9.4
10.4
1.4
1.2
6.3
6.9
6.7
-0.2
19.7
23.3
1.2
-7.5
36.5
-6.7
0.4
-6.8
-0.4
16.5
-33.2
-10.3
-44.0
13.1
26.0
562.3
-8.0
1.1
-3.7
-11.7
2.1
-4.7
-10.7
-6.1
-2.1
-7.8
-8.1
-2.8
7.2
15.1
-22.1
-2.6
7.1
-32.1
-13.9
-10.5
1.2
-9.7
-15.4
-2.2
-2.9
-52.7
-22.2
-21.3
-85.0
7.0
-11.0
0.2
9.6
-9.2
13.2
-8.1
-3.8
10.5
8.1
-7.0
-1.7
2.7
6.4
-1.6
-2.4
-3.0
17.3
0.0
-6.9
-13.5
29.1
11.0
-4.6
4.1
47.7
22.4
-37.6
-9.9
35.2
-23.4
1.3
4.8
8.5
-7.9
1.1
-5.5
-0.7
-6.9
-12.3
10.0
-5.2
-1.0
1.4
-2.1
1.1
-3.7
0.2
0.4
4.1
-3.1
2.1
-1.3
1.5
-4.7
2.7
-0.8
-11.5
3.5
1.7
3.0
2.7
9.1
4.1
1.5
4.2
5.5
3.1
-9.7
-2.0
-0.2
-4.8
0.6
1.4
-0.5
-5.4
-1.2
-0.5
-1.8
-1.2
-1.4
-1.2
-1.3
-1.8
-1.4
-1.3
-2.4
-3.5
0.7
4.7
0.3
0.4
1.1
0.2
0.0
0.8
0.2
-3.3
-0.7
-0.2
1.7
0.8
0.8
-0.8
-2.1
-1.0
-0.3
-1.6
-0.9
-1.2
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.2
-0.8
-3.1
-2.2
2.5
1.2
1.9
1.1
1.8
0.8
2.6
3.5
2.9
-4.0
-1.7
-1.0
2.0
1.4
0.6
-0.8
-2.2
-1.0
-0.4
-1.7
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.2
-0.9
-3.3
-2.4
1.8
1.3
1.9
1.3
1.8
0.3
2.5
2.4
1.8
-3.7
-1.8
-0.9
2.1
1.6
0.5
-0.8
-2.3
-1.1
-0.5
-1.7
-1.1
-1.3
-1.1
-1.3
-1.7
-1.3
-0.9
-3.4
-2.5
1.2
1.0
1.4
1.0
1.7
0.1
2.6
2.4
1.7
-3.7
-1.7
-0.4
2.6
2.0
0.5
-0.9
-2.3
-1.3
-0.7
-1.9
-1.3
-1.5
-1.4
-1.5
-1.9
-1.5
-1.1
-3.4
-2.5
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.5
0.1
2.9
2.5
1.9
-2.7
-1.1
-0.3
2.3
1.8
0.5
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 4: Total Employment by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Mining & quarrying
Manufacturing, of which:
Food products, beverages & tobacco
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
Wood, paper products & printing
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products
Basic metals & metal products
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
Machinery & transport equipment
Other Manufacturing & repair
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
Construction
Wholesale & retail trade
Transportation & storage
Accommodation & food service activities
Information & communication
Financial & insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific & technical activities
Administrative & support service activities
Public administration & defence
Education
Human health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other service activities
Total
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
-0.8
-2.3
-1.5
-0.8
-2.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-2.0
-1.6
-1.3
-3.4
-2.4
0.5
0.9
0.4
0.6
1.2
0.2
2.5
2.2
1.5
-1.4
-0.6
0.0
2.2
1.6
0.5
-0.8
-2.5
-1.4
-0.8
-2.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-2.0
-1.6
-1.3
-3.4
-2.4
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.3
0.9
0.3
1.7
1.4
0.7
-1.1
-0.4
0.3
1.4
0.8
0.2
2023-28
avg pa
-0.8
-2.9
-1.7
-1.1
-2.4
-1.7
-1.9
-1.8
-1.9
-2.3
-1.9
-1.6
-3.7
-2.4
0.1
-0.1
-0.5
-0.2
0.4
0.2
1.2
0.9
0.2
-1.1
-0.4
0.2
0.7
0.1
-0.1
2028-33
avg pa
-0.8
-2.9
-1.7
-1.2
-2.4
-1.7
-1.9
-1.8
-1.9
-2.3
-1.9
-1.6
-3.9
-2.4
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-0.2
0.4
0.3
1.2
0.9
0.2
-1.1
-0.3
0.2
0.8
0.2
-0.1
Summary tables - Bury
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64)
Residence employment rate (16-64)
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64)
Unemployment rate (15-64)
Output
Total GVA (£2009m)
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
182.2
111.0
116.9
-0.7
-0.7
0.0
183.2
111.7
117.3
0.4
0.2
0.3
184.5
112.4
117.9
0.5
0.1
0.4
185.4
113.3
118.5
0.1
0.0
0.1
186.2
113.6
119.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
187.2
113.9
119.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
188.0
114.2
120.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
188.7
114.3
120.6
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
189.5
114.7
121.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
190.3
115.1
121.6
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
191.1
115.6
122.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
194.7
116.8
124.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
197.4
115.2
126.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
199.2
113.2
127.3
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
62.0
10.8
72.8
66.9
80.7
72.8
69.1
-13.9
2.6
3.4
2.2
62.1
11.5
73.7
67.5
79.3
71.0
67.6
-11.8
4.5
5.8
3.9
61.9
12.3
74.2
67.8
79.5
70.7
67.4
-11.7
4.3
5.5
3.6
61.4
11.6
73.0
67.2
80.6
71.2
68.0
-13.4
4.4
5.7
3.7
60.9
12.2
73.2
67.5
81.0
71.4
68.1
-13.5
4.7
6.0
4.0
60.6
12.1
72.7
67.0
80.9
71.0
67.6
-13.8
4.7
6.1
4.0
60.8
12.1
72.9
67.2
81.4
71.2
67.7
-14.2
4.7
6.0
3.9
61.0
12.1
73.1
67.4
81.9
71.6
67.9
-14.5
4.6
5.9
3.8
61.3
12.1
73.5
67.7
82.5
71.9
68.1
-14.8
4.4
5.7
3.7
61.7
12.2
73.9
68.0
83.1
72.2
68.4
-15.1
4.2
5.4
3.5
62.1
12.2
74.3
68.3
83.8
72.4
68.6
-15.4
4.1
5.2
3.3
63.2
12.3
75.6
69.3
85.7
73.4
68.9
-16.4
3.6
4.6
2.9
63.5
12.4
75.9
69.6
86.4
75.1
68.5
-16.8
3.3
4.2
2.6
64.0
12.5
76.6
70.1
87.3
77.1
68.6
-17.2
3.2
4.0
2.5
2406
92
2326
92
2386
90
2369
90
2418
93
2437
93
2490
93
2548
93
2607
93
2670
93
2736
93
3110
92
3483
92
3861
92
77
81
77
81
78
81
79
81
79
81
80
82
81
82
81
83
82
83
82
84
83
85
86
87
88
90
90
92
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.8
-0.9
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.4
1.2
0.9
0.3
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.5
0.8
0.5
-0.4
0.0
-0.4
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.4
0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.2
1.3
-0.8
-0.9
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4
-0.1
15.8
0.5
0.3
0.1
7.2
1.1
0.9
-1.9
-1.8
-1.5
2.1
75.7
2.4
1.7
-0.3
6.2
0.7
0.5
0.3
-0.2
-0.2
0.1
-5.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.9
-5.1
-1.6
-0.8
1.4
0.4
0.6
-1.7
3.3
0.3
0.1
-0.7
5.0
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.0
-0.1
6.4
0.3
0.2
-0.6
-1.3
-0.7
-0.7
-0.2
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
-0.3
-1.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.3
-2.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.2
-0.3
-3.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.6
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.3
0.2
-0.3
-4.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.6
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.2
0.2
-0.3
-4.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.1
1.3
-2.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.6
-1.7
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.4
-0.9
0.0
0.0
1.2
2.8
-3.3
-0.1
2.6
-1.4
-0.7
-0.5
2.1
3.2
0.8
0.2
2.2
0.0
2.3
0.0
2.3
0.0
2.4
0.0
2.5
0.0
2.6
-0.1
2.3
0.0
2.1
0.0
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.1
1.1
0.3
0.8
0.3
0.8
-0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64) pp
Residence employment rate (16-64) pp
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64) pp
Unemployment rate (15-64) pp
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
2023-28
avg pa
2028-33
avg pa
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Bury (continued)
Table 3: Total Employment by sector
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
0.4
Mining & quarrying
0.0
Manufacturing, of which:
7.7
Food products, beverages & tobacco
0.4
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
0.9
Wood, paper products & printing
0.8
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
1.0
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products 1.7
Basic metals & metal products
1.6
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
0.3
Machinery & transport equipment
0.6
Other Manufacturing & repair
0.6
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
0.0
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
0.8
Construction
5.3
Wholesale & retail trade
12.7
Transportation & storage
2.5
Accommodation & food service activities
4.1
Information & communication
2.7
Financial & insurance activities
1.1
Real estate activities
0.8
Professional, scientific & technical activities
3.2
Administrative & support service activities
3.6
Public administration & defence
3.0
Education
6.6
Human health & social work activities
14.1
Arts, entertainment & recreation
1.8
Other service activities
2.4
Total
72.8
0.3
0.0
8.0
0.4
1.1
0.7
1.0
1.6
1.5
0.2
0.8
0.7
0.0
0.5
6.0
12.6
2.7
4.1
2.7
1.4
1.0
3.6
3.6
2.0
7.2
14.3
1.4
2.2
73.7
0.4
0.0
7.2
0.3
1.0
0.5
0.8
1.5
1.4
0.2
0.5
1.0
0.1
0.6
5.3
12.9
2.7
4.0
2.6
1.1
0.6
5.7
3.7
2.0
6.9
14.5
1.6
2.4
74.2
0.4
0.0
7.1
0.3
1.0
0.7
0.9
1.3
1.2
0.3
0.6
0.8
0.1
0.6
4.7
12.6
2.5
4.2
2.5
1.3
1.0
4.9
3.5
2.4
6.4
14.4
1.9
2.4
73.0
0.4
0.0
7.2
0.3
1.0
0.7
0.9
1.3
1.2
0.3
0.6
0.8
0.1
0.6
4.8
12.6
2.5
4.2
2.6
1.3
1.1
5.2
3.6
2.2
6.3
14.5
1.9
2.2
73.2
0.4
0.0
7.1
0.3
1.0
0.7
0.9
1.3
1.2
0.3
0.6
0.8
0.1
0.6
4.8
12.3
2.6
4.2
2.6
1.3
1.1
5.1
3.6
2.1
6.3
14.5
1.9
2.2
72.7
0.3
0.0
7.1
0.3
1.0
0.7
0.9
1.3
1.2
0.3
0.6
0.8
0.1
0.6
4.9
12.4
2.6
4.3
2.6
1.3
1.1
5.2
3.7
2.0
6.2
14.3
1.9
2.2
72.9
0.3
0.0
7.0
0.3
1.0
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.2
0.3
0.6
0.8
0.1
0.6
4.9
12.6
2.7
4.3
2.7
1.3
1.1
5.3
3.7
2.0
6.1
14.2
2.0
2.2
73.1
0.3
0.0
6.9
0.3
1.0
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.2
0.3
0.6
0.8
0.1
0.6
5.0
12.8
2.7
4.4
2.7
1.3
1.1
5.4
3.8
1.9
6.0
14.2
2.0
2.3
73.5
0.3
0.0
6.8
0.3
0.9
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.1
0.3
0.6
0.8
0.1
0.6
5.1
12.9
2.7
4.4
2.8
1.3
1.2
5.5
3.8
1.9
5.9
14.2
2.1
2.3
73.9
0.3
0.0
6.7
0.3
0.9
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.1
0.3
0.6
0.8
0.1
0.6
5.1
13.1
2.8
4.4
2.8
1.3
1.2
5.5
3.9
1.8
5.9
14.3
2.1
2.4
74.3
0.3
0.0
6.3
0.3
0.8
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.1
0.6
5.2
13.5
2.8
4.5
2.9
1.3
1.3
5.8
4.1
1.8
5.9
14.7
2.2
2.4
75.6
0.3
0.0
5.8
0.3
0.8
0.6
0.7
1.0
1.0
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.1
0.5
5.4
13.6
2.8
4.5
3.0
1.3
1.3
5.9
4.2
1.7
5.9
15.1
2.3
2.4
75.9
0.3
0.0
5.4
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.0
0.9
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.1
0.5
5.5
13.7
2.8
4.4
3.0
1.3
1.4
6.1
4.3
1.7
5.9
15.5
2.4
2.5
76.6
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
21.5
Mining & quarrying
21.7
Manufacturing, of which:
-9.4
Food products, beverages & tobacco
28.7
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
-30.6
Wood, paper products & printing
2.0
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
-2.7
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products18.1
Basic metals & metal products
-7.9
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
-4.7
Machinery & transport equipment
-42.7
Other Manufacturing & repair
-22.0
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
45.8
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
171.0
Construction
2.6
Wholesale & retail trade
-0.2
Transportation & storage
1.3
Accommodation & food service activities
4.9
Information & communication
-6.5
Financial & insurance activities
-0.6
Real estate activities
13.9
Professional, scientific & technical activities
-13.5
Administrative & support service activities
-2.1
Public administration & defence
-22.2
Education
-0.5
Human health & social work activities
9.1
Arts, entertainment & recreation
-7.3
Other service activities
-7.4
Total
-0.8
-5.9
-24.3
4.8
15.4
19.4
-9.5
0.1
-4.8
-3.3
-11.2
35.2
29.7
-14.4
-38.6
12.4
-1.0
5.8
0.0
-0.8
22.8
18.9
12.8
0.1
-33.8
9.6
1.7
-21.5
-6.2
1.1
7.7
65.0
-10.1
-26.5
-9.6
-25.3
-13.2
-7.1
-9.0
-10.2
-41.4
39.4
167.6
18.9
-10.8
2.6
2.3
-3.4
-4.5
-21.4
-35.6
58.0
0.6
-1.1
-4.1
1.4
11.6
7.9
0.7
-3.7
-88.0
-0.9
7.3
1.2
44.7
7.1
-15.1
-13.9
59.2
35.5
-23.5
18.2
-1.3
-12.0
-2.5
-8.2
5.6
-1.7
19.7
65.7
-13.1
-3.4
21.8
-6.8
-1.2
20.9
0.1
-1.6
-0.1
1.3
0.7
0.7
4.3
-2.8
2.3
-1.0
1.8
-4.4
2.9
-0.6
-8.8
5.2
3.5
0.1
1.4
-0.1
0.9
0.8
3.4
5.2
2.7
-9.3
-1.8
0.7
-3.7
-9.6
0.2
-0.8
-0.7
-1.1
-0.3
-1.6
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.1
-1.1
0.6
-2.0
-0.4
-2.4
0.6
0.4
1.1
-0.2
-0.3
-1.0
-0.8
-2.9
-0.5
-0.1
1.4
0.6
-0.7
-1.1
2.4
-0.9
-0.1
-1.4
-0.7
-0.9
-0.8
-0.9
-1.3
-0.9
-0.6
-0.2
-0.7
1.1
1.3
1.9
1.1
1.7
0.5
2.2
1.4
1.5
-3.7
-1.5
-0.8
1.7
1.3
0.3
-1.1
2.0
-0.9
-0.1
-1.4
-0.8
-1.0
-0.8
-1.0
-1.4
-1.0
-0.6
-0.4
-0.8
1.5
1.4
2.2
1.2
1.7
-0.1
2.1
1.4
1.6
-3.4
-1.7
-0.7
1.9
1.4
0.4
-1.1
1.6
-1.0
-0.2
-1.5
-0.8
-1.0
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-1.0
-0.7
-0.5
-0.9
1.2
1.2
1.7
1.0
1.7
-0.2
2.3
1.6
1.7
-3.3
-1.5
-0.2
2.4
1.9
0.5
-1.1
1.4
-1.2
-0.4
-1.7
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.2
-0.9
-0.5
-0.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
0.9
1.4
-0.2
2.6
1.9
2.0
-2.3
-0.8
0.0
2.2
1.7
0.6
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 4: Total Employment by sector - annual percentage changes
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
-1.1
1.3
-1.3
-0.6
-1.8
-1.2
-1.4
-1.3
-1.4
-1.8
-1.4
-1.1
-0.4
-0.8
0.7
1.1
0.9
0.7
1.1
-0.1
2.2
1.6
1.6
-1.0
-0.3
0.3
2.1
1.6
0.6
-1.0
0.7
-1.3
-0.6
-1.8
-1.1
-1.4
-1.2
-1.3
-1.8
-1.4
-1.1
-0.4
-0.8
0.6
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.9
0.0
1.4
0.9
1.0
-0.7
-0.1
0.6
1.4
0.9
0.4
2023-28
avg pa
-0.9
-0.5
-1.6
-0.9
-2.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-2.0
-1.6
-1.4
-0.5
-0.9
0.5
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.8
0.5
0.5
-0.7
-0.1
0.5
0.7
0.1
0.1
2028-33
avg pa
-0.9
-0.9
-1.6
-0.9
-2.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-2.0
-1.6
-1.4
-0.5
-0.8
0.6
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.9
0.5
0.5
-0.6
0.0
0.5
0.7
0.2
0.1
Summary tables - Manchester
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64)
Residence employment rate (16-64)
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64)
Unemployment rate (15-64)
Output
Total GVA (£2009m)
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
472.4
326.3
337.8
4.1
-2.1
6.2
482.9
336.3
347.5
6.5
-2.3
8.8
497.8
349.9
360.5
10.7
-2.0
12.7
502.9
349.9
364.2
0.3
-2.2
2.5
508.3
354.8
368.2
0.5
-2.1
2.6
515.1
359.1
373.1
1.3
-1.6
2.8
521.4
362.9
377.6
0.6
-1.9
2.5
527.3
366.4
381.9
0.2
-2.2
2.4
533.1
370.0
386.1
0.0
-2.5
2.6
538.7
374.0
390.2
-0.3
-2.9
2.7
544.0
378.0
394.0
-0.7
-3.4
2.7
565.9
394.0
409.9
-2.3
-5.5
3.2
578.6
398.9
419.0
-4.1
-7.9
3.8
581.4
397.5
421.1
-5.7
-10.1
4.4
307.2
21.4
328.6
291.2
201.2
61.7
59.6
90.0
11.5
3.4
3.4
306.4
23.0
329.5
291.8
200.8
59.7
57.8
91.0
17.2
5.0
4.9
304.0
23.6
327.6
290.3
207.4
59.3
57.5
83.0
17.8
5.2
4.9
304.1
22.4
326.5
287.4
203.2
58.1
55.8
84.2
18.5
5.4
5.1
310.4
24.2
334.7
294.6
205.1
57.8
55.7
89.5
20.1
5.7
5.5
315.5
24.4
340.0
299.1
206.3
57.5
55.3
92.8
20.7
5.7
5.5
320.5
24.7
345.3
303.6
208.3
57.4
55.2
95.3
20.7
5.7
5.5
325.0
25.1
350.1
307.5
210.2
57.4
55.0
97.3
20.4
5.5
5.3
329.5
25.4
354.9
311.3
212.1
57.3
54.9
99.2
19.9
5.3
5.2
334.3
25.7
360.0
315.4
214.3
57.3
54.9
101.1
19.2
5.1
4.9
339.0
26.0
365.1
319.3
216.4
57.2
54.9
102.9
18.6
4.9
4.7
354.8
27.1
382.0
332.8
223.5
56.7
54.5
109.3
17.1
4.3
4.2
363.1
27.8
391.0
340.0
227.3
57.0
54.2
112.7
16.0
3.9
3.8
369.8
28.4
398.3
345.6
230.0
57.9
54.6
115.7
15.5
3.8
3.7
13728
116
13064
115
13255
113
13303
113
13363
112
13720
112
14189
111
14675
112
15172
112
15691
112
16221
112
19072
112
21855
112
24655
113
202
214
206
216
213
218
216
218
220
215
223
218
227
222
231
225
234
229
238
232
241
236
255
250
265
259
270
264
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1.7
2.8
2.2
-1.9
0.4
-2.4
2.2
3.1
2.9
2.4
-0.2
2.5
3.1
4.0
3.8
4.2
0.2
3.9
1.0
0.0
1.0
-10.3
-0.1
-10.2
1.1
1.4
1.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
1.3
1.2
1.3
0.7
0.5
0.2
1.2
1.1
1.2
-0.7
-0.3
-0.3
1.1
1.0
1.1
-0.4
-0.4
-0.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
1.0
1.1
1.0
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
1.0
1.1
1.0
-0.4
-0.4
0.0
0.8
0.9
0.8
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.5
-0.4
-0.5
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
0.4
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.3
-1.5
-1.1
-0.4
3.3
0.1
0.0
-0.2
7.5
0.3
0.2
-0.2
-2.0
-1.8
1.0
49.7
1.6
1.5
-0.8
2.5
-0.6
-0.5
3.3
-0.4
-0.3
-8.0
3.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
-5.1
-0.3
-1.0
-2.0
-1.2
-1.7
1.3
3.7
0.2
0.1
2.1
8.0
2.5
2.5
1.0
-0.2
-0.1
5.3
8.8
0.3
0.4
1.6
0.8
1.6
1.5
0.6
-0.3
-0.4
3.2
3.0
0.1
0.1
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.0
-0.1
-0.1
2.5
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
0.9
0.0
-0.1
2.0
-1.6
-0.2
-0.2
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.2
0.9
0.0
-0.1
1.9
-2.2
-0.2
-0.2
1.5
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.0
0.0
0.0
1.9
-3.3
-0.2
-0.2
1.4
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.0
-0.1
0.0
1.9
-3.2
-0.2
-0.2
1.0
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.7
-0.1
-0.1
1.3
-1.9
-0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.7
-1.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.5
-0.7
0.0
0.0
-2.1
-1.7
-4.8
-0.8
1.5
-1.2
0.4
-0.7
0.5
-0.7
2.7
-0.3
3.4
-0.1
3.4
0.1
3.4
0.1
3.4
0.1
3.4
0.0
3.3
0.1
2.8
0.1
2.4
0.1
2.0
2.7
2.2
1.0
3.4
0.8
1.4
0.2
1.5
-1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.4
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64) pp
Residence employment rate (16-64) pp
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64) pp
Unemployment rate (15-64) pp
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
2023-28
avg pa
2028-33
avg pa
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Manchester (continued)
Table 3: Total Employment by sector
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
0.2
Mining & quarrying
0.0
Manufacturing, of which:
12.7
Food products, beverages & tobacco
2.1
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
1.7
Wood, paper products & printing
1.1
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
1.0
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products 1.3
Basic metals & metal products
0.9
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
2.0
Machinery & transport equipment
0.8
Other Manufacturing & repair
1.9
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
0.0
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
0.4
Construction
8.6
Wholesale & retail trade
37.1
Transportation & storage
28.6
Accommodation & food service activities
22.6
Information & communication
12.1
Financial & insurance activities
26.2
Real estate activities
5.3
Professional, scientific & technical activities
36.2
Administrative & support service activities
30.0
Public administration & defence
20.7
Education
33.2
Human health & social work activities
39.4
Arts, entertainment & recreation
6.6
Other service activities
8.7
Total
328.6
0.2
0.0
11.8
1.8
1.5
0.9
0.7
1.1
0.9
1.1
1.0
2.8
0.1
0.5
10.7
38.7
26.7
25.3
11.9
24.1
6.5
35.1
26.2
20.7
34.6
40.6
8.0
7.7
329.5
0.2
0.0
11.2
2.4
1.4
0.7
0.8
1.1
0.7
1.1
0.7
2.4
0.1
0.4
8.9
37.5
26.8
23.3
10.8
23.7
5.4
39.4
26.1
20.9
34.5
43.1
8.0
7.4
327.6
0.2
0.0
12.4
2.3
1.9
1.3
1.4
1.0
0.7
1.3
0.9
1.7
0.2
0.5
7.0
38.6
22.5
28.0
10.6
23.8
5.6
40.4
26.9
19.0
33.6
42.6
7.4
7.3
326.5
0.2
0.0
12.4
2.3
2.0
1.2
1.4
1.0
0.7
1.2
0.9
1.7
0.2
0.5
7.2
40.0
23.3
30.9
10.9
24.2
5.9
43.2
28.0
17.3
33.1
42.7
6.9
7.6
334.7
0.2
0.0
12.3
2.3
2.0
1.2
1.4
1.0
0.7
1.2
0.9
1.7
0.1
0.5
7.3
43.0
23.6
31.4
11.1
24.2
5.9
44.0
28.4
17.0
33.2
43.0
7.1
7.7
340.0
0.2
0.0
12.1
2.3
1.9
1.2
1.4
1.0
0.7
1.2
0.9
1.7
0.1
0.5
7.6
43.9
24.2
32.0
11.3
24.4
6.0
45.9
29.5
16.5
32.9
42.9
7.3
7.9
345.3
0.2
0.0
12.0
2.3
1.9
1.2
1.3
1.0
0.7
1.1
0.8
1.7
0.1
0.5
7.8
44.9
24.8
32.7
11.5
24.5
6.1
47.4
30.4
16.1
32.6
42.8
7.5
8.1
350.1
0.2
0.0
11.9
2.2
1.9
1.2
1.3
1.0
0.7
1.1
0.8
1.6
0.1
0.5
7.9
45.7
25.3
33.4
11.7
24.6
6.3
48.9
31.2
15.8
32.3
42.9
7.7
8.4
354.9
0.2
0.0
11.7
2.2
1.8
1.2
1.3
1.0
0.7
1.1
0.8
1.6
0.1
0.4
8.1
46.6
25.7
34.0
11.9
24.6
6.5
50.6
32.2
15.5
32.2
43.1
7.9
8.6
360.0
0.2
0.0
11.6
2.2
1.8
1.1
1.3
1.0
0.7
1.1
0.8
1.6
0.1
0.4
8.2
47.4
25.9
34.5
12.1
24.7
6.6
52.2
33.0
15.5
32.2
43.4
8.2
8.8
365.1
0.2
0.0
10.7
2.1
1.6
1.1
1.2
0.9
0.6
1.0
0.7
1.5
0.1
0.4
8.7
49.9
26.5
36.2
12.6
25.1
7.1
57.4
35.4
15.6
32.7
45.2
8.8
9.4
382.0
0.2
0.0
9.8
2.0
1.4
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.6
0.9
0.7
1.4
0.1
0.3
9.0
50.6
26.5
37.0
12.9
25.5
7.4
61.7
37.0
15.4
32.6
46.2
9.1
9.7
391.0
0.2
0.0
8.9
1.9
1.3
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.5
0.8
0.6
1.3
0.1
0.3
9.3
50.7
26.4
37.4
13.3
25.9
7.8
65.9
38.5
15.2
32.3
46.8
9.4
9.9
398.3
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
82.5
Mining & quarrying
-74.4
Manufacturing, of which:
-7.9
Food products, beverages & tobacco
-5.7
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
5.4
Wood, paper products & printing
-16.4
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals -12.8
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products-11.6
Basic metals & metal products
7.0
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
-9.3
Machinery & transport equipment
-40.7
Other Manufacturing & repair
7.2
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
-43.5
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
-52.4
Construction
-8.7
Wholesale & retail trade
-4.5
Transportation & storage
-2.0
Accommodation & food service activities
-2.0
Information & communication
-5.0
Financial & insurance activities
5.9
Real estate activities
10.7
Professional, scientific & technical activities
3.9
Administrative & support service activities
10.3
Public administration & defence
-7.1
Education
2.3
Human health & social work activities
3.4
Arts, entertainment & recreation
-2.8
Other service activities
10.2
Total
0.4
-10.2
-32.7
-6.6
-14.2
-11.8
-13.9
-31.6
-12.6
-4.2
-43.8
37.3
46.6
108.1
24.1
24.9
4.2
-6.5
12.0
-1.3
-8.0
22.5
-3.0
-12.9
0.2
4.2
3.2
20.0
-11.8
0.3
6.2
97.9
-5.4
34.6
-5.7
-29.0
22.7
1.6
-18.4
-5.0
-36.8
-16.3
-17.7
-16.3
-17.1
-3.0
0.2
-8.1
-9.7
-1.4
-17.3
12.1
-0.1
0.8
-0.4
6.2
-0.1
-4.1
-0.6
-1.9
510.1
10.7
-4.5
34.9
89.6
67.9
-6.5
1.6
16.8
31.1
-27.8
119.8
18.0
-21.2
2.8
-15.8
20.2
-2.0
0.4
4.5
2.6
2.8
-9.2
-2.6
-1.2
-6.9
-1.4
-0.3
2.9
-4.2
0.1
0.4
4.3
-3.4
2.0
-1.5
1.5
-4.8
2.7
-1.0
-11.6
3.5
2.1
3.8
3.5
10.6
3.4
1.3
4.6
6.9
4.3
-8.7
-1.3
0.2
-6.2
4.0
2.5
-0.4
-5.8
-1.3
-0.5
-1.7
-1.1
-1.4
-1.2
-1.3
-1.8
-1.4
-1.2
-2.5
-3.5
2.0
7.4
0.9
1.4
1.3
0.2
-0.1
1.9
1.5
-1.9
0.2
0.6
2.3
1.9
1.6
-0.7
-2.5
-1.0
-0.3
-1.5
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.2
-0.7
-3.3
-2.2
3.5
2.1
2.5
2.1
2.0
0.9
2.4
4.3
3.9
-2.7
-0.9
-0.2
2.6
2.5
1.6
-0.7
-2.7
-1.1
-0.4
-1.6
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-3.4
-2.4
2.9
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.0
0.3
2.4
3.3
2.9
-2.4
-1.0
-0.2
2.7
2.6
1.4
-0.7
-2.8
-1.1
-0.5
-1.7
-1.0
-1.3
-1.1
-1.2
-1.7
-1.3
-0.9
-3.6
-2.5
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
0.2
2.5
3.3
2.8
-2.4
-0.9
0.4
3.1
3.0
1.4
-0.7
-2.8
-1.3
-0.7
-1.9
-1.2
-1.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.9
-1.5
-1.1
-3.6
-2.5
2.1
1.9
1.6
1.8
1.6
0.2
2.8
3.4
3.0
-1.5
-0.3
0.4
2.8
2.8
1.4
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 4: Total Employment by sector - annual percentage changes
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
-0.8
-2.7
-1.5
-0.8
-2.0
-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-2.0
-1.6
-1.3
-3.5
-2.4
1.6
1.7
1.1
1.5
1.3
0.3
2.4
3.1
2.5
-0.1
0.2
0.7
2.7
2.5
1.4
-0.8
-3.0
-1.5
-0.8
-2.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-2.0
-1.6
-1.3
-3.6
-2.4
1.2
1.3
0.6
1.1
1.0
0.4
1.5
2.2
1.7
0.1
0.3
0.8
1.8
1.6
1.1
2023-28
avg pa
-0.8
-3.4
-1.8
-1.1
-2.4
-1.7
-1.9
-1.8
-1.9
-2.3
-1.9
-1.6
-3.9
-2.4
0.8
0.3
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.3
1.0
1.5
0.9
-0.2
0.0
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.5
2028-33
avg pa
-0.8
-3.4
-1.8
-1.2
-2.4
-1.7
-1.9
-1.8
-1.9
-2.3
-1.9
-1.6
-4.2
-2.4
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.3
1.0
1.3
0.8
-0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.4
Summary tables - Oldham
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64)
Residence employment rate (16-64)
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64)
Unemployment rate (15-64)
Output
Total GVA (£2009m)
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
221.3
132.7
139.4
-0.3
-1.1
0.8
222.3
133.2
140.0
-0.1
-1.1
1.0
223.8
134.5
140.5
0.1
-1.0
1.1
225.2
135.8
141.4
0.2
-1.1
1.3
226.8
136.9
142.4
0.1
-1.2
1.3
228.3
137.9
143.4
0.0
-1.2
1.2
229.8
138.7
144.3
-0.2
-1.2
1.0
231.1
139.2
145.1
-0.4
-1.2
0.8
232.4
139.9
145.9
-0.4
-1.2
0.8
233.5
140.5
146.6
-0.4
-1.2
0.7
234.6
141.2
147.3
-0.5
-1.2
0.6
239.1
143.1
150.1
-0.7
-1.3
0.7
242.7
141.4
152.3
-0.7
-1.6
0.9
245.8
139.7
154.3
-0.7
-1.8
1.1
77.0
10.9
87.9
82.9
89.3
67.3
64.0
-6.3
4.3
4.7
3.1
75.6
11.0
86.6
81.4
88.5
66.4
63.2
-7.1
6.8
7.3
4.9
71.5
10.8
82.4
77.4
89.0
66.2
63.3
-11.6
6.8
7.6
4.8
72.0
10.8
82.8
77.7
89.5
65.9
63.3
-11.8
7.2
8.0
5.1
72.8
11.6
84.4
79.3
90.7
66.2
63.7
-11.4
7.8
8.5
5.5
73.6
11.7
85.3
80.1
91.4
66.3
63.7
-11.3
8.0
8.6
5.6
74.2
11.8
86.0
80.8
92.1
66.5
63.9
-11.4
7.9
8.4
5.5
74.8
11.9
86.6
81.3
92.8
66.7
64.0
-11.5
7.7
8.2
5.3
75.3
11.9
87.2
81.8
93.5
66.9
64.1
-11.7
7.5
7.9
5.1
75.8
12.0
87.9
82.4
94.2
67.1
64.3
-11.9
7.2
7.6
4.9
76.4
12.0
88.4
82.9
94.9
67.2
64.5
-12.1
6.9
7.2
4.7
77.8
12.2
90.1
84.2
96.9
67.7
64.6
-12.7
6.2
6.4
4.1
78.2
12.4
90.6
84.7
97.6
69.1
64.1
-13.0
5.6
5.9
3.7
79.1
12.6
91.7
85.6
98.6
70.6
63.9
-12.9
5.4
5.6
3.5
2837
90
2686
90
2708
92
2751
92
2799
93
2851
92
2926
92
2997
92
3068
92
3142
92
3217
92
3648
91
4079
91
4521
90
90
93
91
95
92
95
92
94
93
95
94
95
95
96
96
97
96
98
97
99
98
99
101
103
104
106
107
108
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.6
1.0
0.6
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.7
0.8
0.7
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.7
0.7
0.7
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.5
0.6
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.6
0.4
0.6
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-2.9
-2.2
-2.8
-2.9
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
-2.1
7.7
0.4
0.2
-1.8
0.5
-1.5
-1.9
-0.9
-0.9
-0.8
-0.8
58.2
2.6
1.8
-5.4
-1.0
-4.8
-4.9
0.6
-0.2
0.2
-4.5
-0.1
0.3
0.0
0.6
-0.5
0.4
0.4
0.6
-0.3
0.0
-0.2
6.0
0.4
0.3
1.1
7.8
2.0
2.1
1.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
8.5
0.5
0.4
1.2
0.3
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.0
0.1
0.1
2.5
0.1
0.1
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.7
-0.1
-0.1
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-2.4
-0.2
-0.2
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.2
0.1
-0.2
-2.9
-0.3
-0.2
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.2
0.2
-0.2
-4.2
-0.4
-0.2
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.2
0.2
-0.2
-4.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
1.1
-2.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.5
-1.7
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.8
-0.1
0.0
-3.1
0.5
-5.3
0.5
0.8
2.5
1.6
-0.3
1.7
1.0
1.9
-0.5
2.6
-0.1
2.4
-0.2
2.4
-0.2
2.4
-0.2
2.4
-0.2
2.5
-0.1
2.3
-0.1
2.1
-0.1
1.6
-0.3
0.6
2.5
0.9
-0.1
0.8
-0.3
1.0
0.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64) pp
Residence employment rate (16-64) pp
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64) pp
Unemployment rate (15-64) pp
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
2023-28
avg pa
2028-33
avg pa
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Oldham (continued)
Table 3: Total Employment by sector
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
0.3
Mining & quarrying
0.0
Manufacturing, of which:
12.1
Food products, beverages & tobacco
1.5
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
1.2
Wood, paper products & printing
1.6
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
0.3
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products 1.0
Basic metals & metal products
1.9
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
1.6
Machinery & transport equipment
1.7
Other Manufacturing & repair
1.4
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
0.2
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
0.7
Construction
9.0
Wholesale & retail trade
18.2
Transportation & storage
3.5
Accommodation & food service activities
4.1
Information & communication
1.2
Financial & insurance activities
0.8
Real estate activities
1.3
Professional, scientific & technical activities
3.6
Administrative & support service activities
5.3
Public administration & defence
3.4
Education
8.0
Human health & social work activities
11.9
Arts, entertainment & recreation
2.0
Other service activities
2.4
Total
87.9
0.2
0.0
12.7
1.4
1.0
1.5
0.3
1.0
2.0
1.2
2.0
2.3
0.2
0.7
8.0
17.6
3.8
4.1
1.2
1.1
1.4
4.2
3.6
3.1
8.1
12.0
1.9
2.7
86.6
0.3
0.0
11.2
1.3
1.0
1.4
0.4
1.2
1.7
1.0
1.9
1.3
0.2
0.6
7.3
17.0
3.6
4.3
1.2
1.1
1.3
3.4
3.9
3.1
7.4
12.3
1.8
2.6
82.4
0.2
0.0
11.1
1.3
1.0
1.6
0.5
0.9
1.7
1.1
1.7
1.4
0.2
0.6
7.3
15.0
5.1
4.6
1.1
1.1
1.2
3.1
3.8
3.5
8.2
12.4
1.8
2.6
82.8
0.2
0.0
11.1
1.3
1.0
1.5
0.5
0.9
1.7
1.0
1.7
1.4
0.2
0.7
7.6
15.5
5.3
5.1
1.1
1.1
1.3
3.3
4.0
3.2
8.1
12.4
1.7
2.6
84.4
0.2
0.0
11.0
1.3
1.0
1.5
0.5
0.9
1.7
1.0
1.7
1.4
0.2
0.6
7.7
16.2
5.3
5.1
1.1
1.1
1.3
3.3
4.0
3.1
8.1
12.4
1.7
2.7
85.3
0.2
0.0
10.9
1.3
1.0
1.5
0.5
0.9
1.6
1.0
1.7
1.4
0.2
0.6
8.0
16.5
5.5
5.2
1.1
1.1
1.3
3.4
4.2
3.0
8.0
12.4
1.7
2.7
86.0
0.2
0.0
10.8
1.3
1.0
1.5
0.5
0.9
1.6
1.0
1.7
1.4
0.2
0.6
8.2
16.7
5.6
5.3
1.2
1.1
1.3
3.5
4.3
3.0
7.9
12.3
1.8
2.8
86.6
0.2
0.0
10.7
1.3
1.0
1.5
0.5
0.8
1.6
1.0
1.6
1.4
0.2
0.6
8.3
16.9
5.7
5.4
1.2
1.1
1.3
3.6
4.4
2.9
7.8
12.3
1.8
2.8
87.2
0.2
0.0
10.5
1.3
1.0
1.5
0.5
0.8
1.6
1.0
1.6
1.4
0.2
0.6
8.5
17.1
5.8
5.4
1.2
1.1
1.4
3.7
4.5
2.8
7.7
12.3
1.8
2.9
87.9
0.2
0.0
10.4
1.3
0.9
1.4
0.5
0.8
1.6
0.9
1.6
1.3
0.2
0.6
8.5
17.3
5.8
5.5
1.2
1.1
1.4
3.8
4.6
2.8
7.7
12.4
1.9
2.9
88.4
0.2
0.0
9.7
1.3
0.8
1.4
0.4
0.8
1.5
0.9
1.5
1.3
0.2
0.6
8.9
17.8
6.0
5.7
1.3
1.1
1.5
4.0
4.9
2.8
7.7
12.8
2.0
3.0
90.1
0.2
0.0
8.9
1.2
0.8
1.3
0.4
0.7
1.3
0.8
1.4
1.2
0.2
0.6
9.2
17.9
6.0
5.7
1.3
1.1
1.5
4.2
5.2
2.8
7.6
13.1
2.0
3.1
90.6
0.2
0.0
8.2
1.1
0.7
1.2
0.4
0.7
1.2
0.7
1.2
1.1
0.2
0.5
9.5
18.0
6.0
5.8
1.3
1.1
1.6
4.4
5.5
2.8
7.6
13.6
2.1
3.1
91.7
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
15.0
Mining & quarrying
6.7
Manufacturing, of which:
-12.1
Food products, beverages & tobacco
-15.8
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
-2.3
Wood, paper products & printing
0.0
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals -56.1
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products-1.7
Basic metals & metal products
-0.2
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
-6.3
Machinery & transport equipment
-14.0
Other Manufacturing & repair
-31.4
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
131.8
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
14.1
Construction
-11.6
Wholesale & retail trade
-2.5
Transportation & storage
7.2
Accommodation & food service activities
-8.0
Information & communication
-15.1
Financial & insurance activities
-30.8
Real estate activities
-9.5
Professional, scientific & technical activities
15.4
Administrative & support service activities
7.9
Public administration & defence
4.8
Education
-4.0
Human health & social work activities
7.2
Arts, entertainment & recreation
-3.4
Other service activities
-2.6
Total
-2.8
-7.3
0.9
4.7
-5.1
-20.3
-7.6
-0.7
-0.8
9.2
-27.3
19.7
71.1
-20.9
-1.4
-10.3
-3.3
7.7
-0.7
-0.6
38.8
5.5
17.6
-32.5
-7.4
1.0
1.1
-5.7
12.7
-1.5
7.2
-0.9
-11.4
-9.7
6.5
-3.2
67.9
21.0
-17.8
-18.3
-7.9
-42.0
16.4
-9.1
-9.2
-3.4
-6.1
4.7
-0.7
-3.9
-7.1
-20.8
8.9
0.1
-8.5
2.3
-4.9
-3.8
-4.8
-3.1
-40.2
-1.5
3.8
-4.6
9.4
11.0
-26.5
-0.8
11.5
-11.4
6.6
10.1
3.9
-0.6
-11.9
42.6
7.5
-8.5
0.2
-3.7
-9.0
-3.6
12.9
11.3
0.8
-0.9
-0.7
0.4
0.9
-5.7
0.2
0.6
4.2
-3.0
2.2
-1.2
1.7
-4.6
2.9
-0.7
-8.9
5.0
4.9
3.4
3.7
10.8
3.9
2.3
3.7
7.6
5.4
-8.7
-1.6
0.1
-4.8
0.9
2.0
-0.6
-7.3
-1.1
-0.4
-1.6
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.2
-1.2
0.5
-2.1
1.6
4.8
0.9
0.9
1.2
0.1
-0.4
1.3
1.5
-2.4
-0.4
0.2
1.5
1.0
1.1
-0.9
-4.1
-0.9
-0.2
-1.4
-0.8
-1.0
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-1.0
-0.6
-0.2
-0.8
3.2
1.4
2.4
1.6
1.9
0.7
2.1
3.6
3.9
-3.1
-1.4
-0.6
1.8
1.6
0.8
-0.9
-4.3
-0.9
-0.2
-1.5
-0.8
-1.1
-0.9
-1.0
-1.5
-1.1
-0.7
-0.4
-0.9
2.3
1.5
2.4
1.7
1.9
0.2
2.0
2.5
2.6
-2.8
-1.5
-0.5
1.9
1.8
0.7
-0.9
-4.4
-1.0
-0.3
-1.5
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.1
-0.8
-0.5
-1.0
1.8
1.3
1.9
1.5
1.8
0.0
2.1
2.4
2.6
-2.7
-1.3
0.1
2.4
2.3
0.7
-0.9
-4.4
-1.2
-0.5
-1.8
-1.1
-1.3
-1.2
-1.3
-1.7
-1.3
-1.0
-0.5
-1.0
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.5
0.0
2.4
2.6
2.8
-1.9
-0.8
0.0
2.0
1.9
0.7
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 4: Total Employment by sector - annual percentage changes
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
-0.9
-4.3
-1.4
-0.7
-1.9
-1.3
-1.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.9
-1.5
-1.1
-0.4
-1.0
1.0
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.2
0.2
2.0
2.2
2.3
-0.5
-0.2
0.4
2.0
1.8
0.6
-0.8
-4.6
-1.3
-0.7
-1.9
-1.2
-1.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.8
-1.5
-1.1
-0.4
-0.9
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.7
1.0
0.2
1.2
1.4
1.5
-0.2
-0.1
0.7
1.2
1.0
0.5
2023-28
avg pa
-0.8
-5.0
-1.6
-1.0
-2.2
-1.5
-1.7
-1.6
-1.7
-2.1
-1.7
-1.4
-0.5
-1.0
0.7
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.7
1.0
1.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.1
2028-33
avg pa
-0.8
-5.1
-1.6
-1.0
-2.2
-1.5
-1.7
-1.6
-1.7
-2.1
-1.7
-1.4
-0.5
-0.9
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.7
1.0
1.1
-0.1
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
Summary tables - Rochdale
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64)
Residence employment rate (16-64)
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64)
Unemployment rate (15-64)
Output
Total GVA (£2009m)
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
208.7
127.5
133.9
-0.1
-0.8
0.7
209.6
128.2
134.3
-0.2
-1.2
1.0
210.7
129.0
134.7
-0.1
-1.0
0.9
211.9
130.7
135.4
0.0
-1.1
1.0
212.9
131.1
136.1
-0.1
-1.1
1.0
214.1
131.8
136.8
-0.1
-1.1
1.0
215.1
132.1
137.5
-0.4
-1.1
0.8
216.0
132.5
138.0
-0.5
-1.1
0.7
216.9
132.7
138.6
-0.4
-1.1
0.7
217.8
133.3
139.2
-0.5
-1.1
0.7
218.6
133.7
139.8
-0.5
-1.1
0.6
222.0
136.6
141.9
-0.6
-1.3
0.7
224.3
137.3
143.4
-0.7
-1.6
0.9
225.7
138.9
144.3
-0.8
-1.9
1.1
74.4
11.2
85.6
78.8
87.7
68.8
65.5
-8.9
4.2
4.7
3.2
74.4
12.3
86.7
78.9
86.0
67.1
64.0
-7.1
7.2
7.7
5.4
69.3
11.7
81.0
74.1
83.6
64.8
62.1
-9.5
7.0
8.0
5.2
66.6
10.8
77.5
70.1
83.7
64.1
61.8
-13.6
7.3
8.6
5.4
66.4
11.4
77.8
70.5
84.1
64.1
61.8
-13.6
7.8
9.1
5.7
66.6
11.3
77.9
70.5
84.3
63.9
61.6
-13.7
7.9
9.3
5.8
67.0
11.4
78.4
71.0
84.9
64.2
61.7
-13.9
7.9
9.1
5.7
67.4
11.5
78.9
71.4
85.4
64.5
61.9
-14.1
7.7
8.9
5.6
67.8
11.6
79.4
71.8
86.0
64.8
62.1
-14.2
7.4
8.6
5.4
68.3
11.6
79.9
72.2
86.7
65.0
62.2
-14.4
7.1
8.2
5.1
68.8
11.7
80.4
72.6
87.3
65.3
62.4
-14.6
6.8
7.8
4.9
69.9
11.9
81.8
73.6
88.9
65.1
62.7
-15.3
6.1
6.9
4.3
70.1
12.0
82.1
73.8
89.5
65.2
62.4
-15.7
5.5
6.3
3.9
70.6
12.2
82.8
74.3
90.3
65.0
62.6
-16.0
5.3
6.1
3.7
2810
91
2625
88
2662
92
2614
93
2511
90
2542
90
2604
90
2667
90
2730
90
2796
90
2864
90
3249
89
3629
89
4015
89
86
90
87
90
87
90
88
91
89
90
90
91
90
92
91
93
92
93
92
94
93
95
96
98
98
100
100
102
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.4
-0.1
-0.4
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.5
1.3
0.5
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.5
0.6
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.5
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-5.9
-6.3
-6.0
-5.4
-1.7
-1.5
-1.4
-3.0
12.0
0.7
0.3
0.0
9.6
1.3
0.0
-2.0
-1.7
-1.5
1.7
70.9
3.0
2.2
-6.8
-5.0
-6.6
-6.1
-2.8
-2.3
-1.9
-2.4
-2.8
0.3
-0.2
-3.9
-6.9
-4.3
-5.4
0.1
-0.8
-0.3
-4.1
4.0
0.6
0.2
-0.3
5.1
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
6.9
0.5
0.3
0.2
-0.6
0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
1.5
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.9
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.2
-0.2
-2.5
-0.3
-0.2
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.2
-0.2
-3.0
-0.3
-0.2
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.2
0.2
-0.2
-4.2
-0.4
-0.2
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.3
0.2
-0.2
-4.1
-0.4
-0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.1
1.0
-2.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.5
-1.7
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.4
-0.9
-0.1
0.0
-8.6
-2.0
-6.6
-3.7
1.4
5.1
-1.8
1.2
-3.9
-3.1
1.2
-0.2
2.4
-0.1
2.4
-0.1
2.4
-0.1
2.4
-0.2
2.4
-0.1
2.5
-0.1
2.3
-0.1
2.0
-0.1
2.5
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.8
0.1
0.8
0.4
0.8
-0.4
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64) pp
Residence employment rate (16-64) pp
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64) pp
Unemployment rate (15-64) pp
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
2023-28
avg pa
2028-33
avg pa
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Rochdale (continued)
Table 3: Total Employment by sector
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
0.3
Mining & quarrying
0.0
Manufacturing, of which:
12.5
Food products, beverages & tobacco
0.8
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
2.2
Wood, paper products & printing
0.9
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
1.2
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products 1.8
Basic metals & metal products
1.9
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
0.6
Machinery & transport equipment
2.3
Other Manufacturing & repair
0.7
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
0.1
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
0.3
Construction
7.3
Wholesale & retail trade
14.3
Transportation & storage
7.4
Accommodation & food service activities
4.4
Information & communication
1.6
Financial & insurance activities
1.1
Real estate activities
1.1
Professional, scientific & technical activities
5.5
Administrative & support service activities
6.1
Public administration & defence
4.4
Education
5.9
Human health & social work activities
9.7
Arts, entertainment & recreation
1.4
Other service activities
2.3
Total
85.6
0.3
0.0
11.3
0.9
2.0
1.0
1.1
1.5
1.9
0.3
1.5
1.0
0.1
0.2
10.0
13.4
6.8
4.0
1.5
1.1
1.0
4.9
5.7
6.4
6.2
10.1
2.2
1.7
86.7
0.3
0.0
10.5
0.8
2.2
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.6
0.4
1.2
0.9
0.0
0.4
8.1
12.9
5.8
3.4
1.2
1.1
1.4
4.9
3.9
7.4
4.5
10.9
2.2
2.1
81.0
0.3
0.0
10.3
0.8
1.8
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.8
0.5
1.4
0.7
0.0
0.3
6.5
12.3
5.7
3.7
1.3
1.2
0.9
5.9
4.5
3.9
6.8
10.1
1.6
2.3
77.5
0.3
0.0
10.4
0.8
1.8
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.8
0.4
1.5
0.7
0.0
0.3
6.5
12.6
5.8
3.9
1.3
1.2
0.9
6.0
4.5
3.5
6.7
10.0
1.6
2.2
77.8
0.3
0.0
10.3
0.8
1.8
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.8
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.0
0.3
6.5
12.8
5.9
3.9
1.3
1.2
0.9
6.0
4.5
3.4
6.7
10.0
1.6
2.2
77.9
0.3
0.0
10.2
0.8
1.8
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.8
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.0
0.3
6.7
13.0
6.0
4.0
1.3
1.2
0.9
6.2
4.6
3.3
6.6
9.9
1.6
2.3
78.4
0.3
0.0
10.1
0.8
1.8
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.7
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.0
0.3
6.8
13.2
6.1
4.0
1.3
1.2
0.9
6.4
4.7
3.2
6.5
9.9
1.7
2.3
78.9
0.3
0.0
10.0
0.8
1.7
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.7
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.0
0.3
6.9
13.3
6.2
4.1
1.4
1.2
0.9
6.6
4.8
3.1
6.4
9.8
1.7
2.4
79.4
0.3
0.0
9.9
0.8
1.7
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.7
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.0
0.3
7.1
13.5
6.3
4.1
1.4
1.2
1.0
6.7
4.9
3.1
6.3
9.8
1.7
2.4
79.9
0.3
0.0
9.7
0.8
1.7
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.7
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.0
0.3
7.1
13.6
6.3
4.2
1.4
1.2
1.0
6.9
5.0
3.1
6.3
9.8
1.8
2.5
80.4
0.3
0.0
9.1
0.7
1.5
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.6
0.4
1.3
0.6
0.0
0.3
7.4
14.0
6.4
4.2
1.5
1.2
1.0
7.5
5.2
3.0
6.2
10.1
1.9
2.6
81.8
0.3
0.0
8.3
0.7
1.4
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.4
0.3
1.2
0.5
0.0
0.2
7.6
13.9
6.3
4.3
1.5
1.2
1.0
8.0
5.3
3.0
6.2
10.2
2.0
2.6
82.1
0.3
0.0
7.7
0.7
1.2
0.9
0.8
0.9
1.3
0.3
1.1
0.5
0.0
0.2
7.9
13.9
6.3
4.3
1.5
1.2
1.1
8.6
5.5
3.0
6.2
10.4
2.1
2.7
82.8
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
-2.6
Mining & quarrying
0.0
Manufacturing, of which:
-5.0
Food products, beverages & tobacco
8.7
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
-4.8
Wood, paper products & printing
-7.2
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
-5.8
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products 9.8
Basic metals & metal products
-6.3
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
-44.1
Machinery & transport equipment
1.3
Other Manufacturing & repair
-11.4
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
75.4
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
-13.6
Construction
-16.8
Wholesale & retail trade
-9.4
Transportation & storage
-7.3
Accommodation & food service activities
5.1
Information & communication
-20.4
Financial & insurance activities
1.2
Real estate activities
-18.8
Professional, scientific & technical activities
3.3
Administrative & support service activities
-15.7
Public administration & defence
24.6
Education
-14.0
Human health & social work activities
2.3
Arts, entertainment & recreation
-21.6
Other service activities
26.5
Total
-6.0
-7.1
0.0
-9.1
18.2
-8.0
14.1
-9.7
-19.7
0.2
-40.1
-34.4
38.7
-13.2
-52.0
35.5
-6.2
-7.5
-9.0
-5.5
0.7
-13.2
-11.3
-7.9
46.5
4.7
4.5
59.4
-25.2
1.3
7.3
0.0
-6.9
-12.4
9.2
9.2
8.2
-29.3
-13.7
34.4
-24.9
-7.9
-51.7
161.2
-18.7
-3.3
-15.6
-13.9
-17.8
1.0
40.9
0.8
-31.4
14.9
-27.6
7.4
-1.3
19.9
-6.6
-3.2
0.0
-2.3
-6.3
-20.1
7.8
-16.1
20.0
7.1
4.0
21.9
-26.4
40.0
-19.7
-19.2
-5.0
-1.3
7.1
4.8
7.4
-39.0
20.0
16.4
-47.4
53.3
-7.7
-26.2
8.2
-4.3
0.9
-100.0
1.0
0.6
4.3
-2.9
2.3
-1.1
1.7
-4.5
2.9
-0.6
-10.8
3.4
0.0
2.0
3.0
6.6
1.7
1.2
3.5
2.4
-0.6
-9.0
-1.8
-0.2
-4.2
-2.6
0.4
-0.5
0.0
-1.1
-0.3
-1.6
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.1
-1.1
-1.6
-3.6
0.1
2.2
0.1
0.6
1.1
0.2
-0.6
0.1
-0.5
-2.5
-0.5
-0.1
1.8
1.1
0.1
-0.8
0.0
-0.9
-0.1
-1.4
-0.7
-0.9
-0.8
-0.9
-1.3
-0.9
-0.6
-2.4
-2.3
2.2
1.3
1.9
1.3
1.7
0.8
2.0
3.1
2.5
-3.2
-1.5
-0.9
2.1
1.7
0.6
-0.8
0.0
-1.0
-0.2
-1.4
-0.8
-1.0
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-1.0
-0.6
-2.5
-2.5
2.1
1.4
2.1
1.5
1.8
0.3
1.9
2.7
2.0
-3.0
-1.7
-0.8
2.3
1.9
0.6
-0.8
0.0
-1.0
-0.2
-1.5
-0.8
-1.1
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-1.1
-0.7
-2.6
-2.6
1.7
1.1
1.7
1.2
1.7
0.1
2.0
2.8
2.0
-2.9
-1.5
-0.2
2.7
2.4
0.6
-0.9
0.0
-1.2
-0.4
-1.7
-1.0
-1.3
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.3
-0.9
-2.6
-2.6
1.5
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.4
0.1
2.3
2.9
2.2
-1.9
-0.9
-0.1
2.5
2.1
0.7
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 4: Total Employment by sector - annual percentage changes
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
-0.9
0.0
-1.4
-0.6
-1.9
-1.2
-1.4
-1.3
-1.4
-1.8
-1.4
-1.1
-2.5
-2.5
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.8
1.1
0.2
1.9
2.6
1.8
-0.6
-0.3
0.2
2.4
1.9
0.6
-0.8
0.0
-1.4
-0.6
-1.8
-1.2
-1.4
-1.3
-1.4
-1.8
-1.4
-1.1
-2.5
-2.5
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.5
0.9
0.3
1.1
1.8
1.0
-0.3
-0.2
0.4
1.6
1.2
0.4
2023-28
avg pa
-0.8
0.0
-1.6
-0.9
-2.1
-1.4
-1.7
-1.5
-1.6
-2.1
-1.7
-1.4
-2.6
-2.6
0.6
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.6
1.3
0.6
-0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.9
0.4
0.1
2028-33
avg pa
-0.7
0.0
-1.6
-0.9
-2.2
-1.4
-1.7
-1.5
-1.6
-2.1
-1.7
-1.4
-2.6
-2.5
0.7
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.6
1.4
0.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.9
0.5
0.1
Summary tables - Salford
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64)
Residence employment rate (16-64)
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64)
Unemployment rate (15-64)
Output
Total GVA (£2009m)
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
225.6
143.8
150.5
1.2
0.4
0.7
228.0
146.1
152.8
1.6
-0.2
1.8
232.4
149.9
156.3
3.0
0.2
2.8
234.5
150.6
157.7
0.9
0.1
0.8
236.6
152.5
159.1
0.9
0.2
0.7
239.1
154.3
160.9
1.0
0.3
0.7
241.5
155.6
162.4
0.8
0.3
0.5
243.7
156.8
163.9
0.6
0.3
0.4
246.0
158.1
165.5
0.6
0.3
0.4
248.3
159.7
167.0
0.6
0.2
0.3
250.3
161.1
168.4
0.4
0.2
0.3
259.6
166.0
174.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
265.7
164.7
178.7
-0.6
-0.3
-0.3
269.0
160.5
180.9
-1.0
-0.6
-0.3
117.8
11.1
128.9
113.8
99.8
69.4
66.3
13.9
4.2
3.2
2.8
115.0
11.3
126.3
112.9
97.0
66.4
63.5
16.0
7.2
5.4
4.7
114.7
11.3
125.9
110.7
98.1
65.4
62.8
12.6
7.4
5.6
4.7
113.9
10.7
124.6
107.5
98.1
65.1
62.2
9.4
7.5
5.7
4.8
115.5
11.5
127.0
109.7
99.1
65.0
62.2
10.7
8.2
6.0
5.1
117.0
11.6
128.6
111.0
99.5
64.5
61.8
11.5
8.4
6.1
5.2
118.9
11.7
130.6
112.6
100.5
64.6
61.9
12.1
8.4
6.0
5.2
120.6
11.9
132.4
114.0
101.5
64.7
61.9
12.5
8.3
5.9
5.0
122.3
12.0
134.3
115.4
102.5
64.8
62.0
12.9
8.1
5.7
4.9
124.2
12.2
136.4
116.9
103.7
64.9
62.1
13.2
7.8
5.4
4.7
126.1
12.3
138.5
118.4
104.8
65.0
62.2
13.6
7.6
5.2
4.5
132.7
12.9
145.6
123.7
108.4
65.3
62.1
15.2
7.0
4.6
4.0
136.9
13.4
150.2
127.0
110.5
67.1
61.8
16.6
6.6
4.2
3.7
141.1
13.8
154.9
130.2
111.7
69.6
61.8
18.5
6.5
4.0
3.6
4845
104
4616
106
4761
106
4903
109
4901
108
5019
108
5186
108
5359
108
5535
108
5721
108
5915
108
6969
107
8019
107
9104
107
99
104
101
106
103
107
104
109
105
107
107
109
108
110
110
112
111
113
112
114
114
116
119
122
124
126
127
129
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64) pp
Residence employment rate (16-64) pp
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64) pp
Unemployment rate (15-64) pp
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
2023-28
avg pa
2028-33
avg pa
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.9
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.3
-0.2
1.1
1.6
1.5
0.4
-0.6
1.0
1.9
2.6
2.3
1.4
0.3
1.1
0.9
0.5
0.9
-2.1
-0.1
-2.0
0.9
1.3
0.9
0.0
0.0
-0.1
1.1
1.2
1.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.9
0.8
0.9
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.0
0.9
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.9
0.8
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.7
0.7
0.7
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.5
-0.1
0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
-0.5
0.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
1.6
7.7
2.1
2.7
-1.5
-2.0
-1.8
4.5
6.0
0.1
0.1
-2.4
2.3
-2.0
-0.7
-2.8
-3.0
-2.8
2.0
70.3
2.2
1.9
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
-2.0
1.1
-1.0
-0.7
-3.3
2.6
0.1
0.0
-0.7
-5.1
-1.1
-2.9
0.0
-0.3
-0.6
-3.2
1.8
0.2
0.0
1.4
7.6
2.0
2.1
1.0
-0.2
0.1
1.3
8.3
0.3
0.3
1.3
0.4
1.2
1.2
0.4
-0.5
-0.4
0.9
2.6
0.1
0.1
1.6
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.0
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.0
-0.1
0.0
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.0
0.2
0.1
0.4
-1.6
-0.2
-0.1
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.1
0.1
0.4
-2.1
-0.2
-0.2
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.3
1.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
-3.3
-0.3
-0.2
1.5
1.2
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
-3.2
-0.2
-0.2
1.1
1.0
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.1
0.0
2.4
-1.8
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.3
-0.1
1.7
-1.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.0
2.1
-0.4
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.8
-4.7
1.5
3.1
0.1
3.0
2.6
0.0
-0.7
2.4
-0.2
3.3
-0.1
3.3
0.0
3.3
0.0
3.4
-0.1
3.4
0.0
3.3
0.0
2.9
0.0
2.6
0.0
2.1
2.7
1.2
1.9
2.2
0.4
1.3
2.0
1.3
-1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Salford (continued)
Table 3: Total Employment by sector
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
0.3
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
0.0
Mining & quarrying
8.8
Manufacturing, of which:
0.9
Food products, beverages & tobacco
0.4
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
0.8
Wood, paper products & printing
1.3
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products 1.4
0.9
Basic metals & metal products
1.0
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
1.1
Machinery & transport equipment
1.0
Other Manufacturing & repair
0.1
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
0.7
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
11.4
Construction
17.2
Wholesale & retail trade
4.6
Transportation & storage
6.7
Accommodation & food service activities
3.5
Information & communication
7.2
Financial & insurance activities
2.1
Real estate activities
8.6
Professional, scientific & technical activities
17.9
Administrative & support service activities
6.8
Public administration & defence
11.6
Education
17.3
Human health & social work activities
1.7
Arts, entertainment & recreation
2.4
Other service activities
128.9
Total
0.3
0.0
8.4
0.8
0.3
0.9
1.5
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.9
1.1
0.1
0.5
10.8
17.7
3.5
7.1
4.7
6.2
2.4
8.1
18.7
6.6
10.8
15.8
2.4
2.1
126.3
0.3
0.0
7.3
0.8
0.3
0.9
1.4
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.1
0.6
8.5
17.3
3.6
10.6
3.7
6.1
1.7
8.1
20.1
6.4
10.1
16.5
2.7
2.1
125.9
0.3
0.0
7.1
0.7
0.4
1.0
1.3
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.7
7.2
18.3
3.5
8.8
4.2
6.0
1.8
7.9
20.7
7.0
10.0
16.4
2.4
2.1
124.6
0.3
0.0
7.1
0.7
0.4
1.0
1.3
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.8
7.3
19.2
3.5
9.8
4.2
6.1
1.9
8.4
21.3
6.3
9.9
16.3
2.3
2.1
127.0
0.3
0.0
7.0
0.7
0.4
1.0
1.3
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.7
7.4
20.1
3.5
10.0
4.3
6.1
1.9
8.5
21.6
6.2
9.9
16.4
2.3
2.1
128.6
0.3
0.0
6.9
0.7
0.4
0.9
1.2
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.7
7.7
20.5
3.6
10.2
4.4
6.2
1.9
8.8
22.5
6.0
9.8
16.3
2.4
2.2
130.6
0.3
0.0
6.9
0.7
0.4
0.9
1.2
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.1
0.7
7.9
20.9
3.7
10.5
4.4
6.2
2.0
9.1
23.3
5.9
9.6
16.2
2.4
2.2
132.4
0.3
0.0
6.8
0.7
0.4
0.9
1.2
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.5
0.1
0.7
8.1
21.2
3.8
10.7
4.5
6.2
2.0
9.4
24.1
5.7
9.5
16.3
2.5
2.3
134.3
0.3
0.0
6.7
0.7
0.4
0.9
1.2
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.7
8.3
21.6
3.8
10.9
4.6
6.2
2.1
9.7
25.0
5.6
9.5
16.3
2.5
2.4
136.4
0.3
0.0
6.6
0.7
0.4
0.9
1.2
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.7
8.4
21.9
3.9
11.1
4.6
6.3
2.1
10.0
25.8
5.6
9.5
16.4
2.6
2.4
138.5
0.3
0.0
6.1
0.7
0.4
0.8
1.1
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.7
8.9
23.1
4.0
11.7
4.8
6.4
2.2
11.1
28.5
5.7
9.7
17.0
2.8
2.6
145.6
0.3
0.0
5.6
0.6
0.3
0.8
1.0
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.6
9.4
23.5
4.0
12.1
4.9
6.5
2.3
12.0
30.8
5.6
9.7
17.4
2.8
2.7
150.2
0.2
0.0
5.1
0.6
0.3
0.7
0.9
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.6
9.8
23.7
4.0
12.5
5.0
6.6
2.4
13.0
33.2
5.6
9.7
17.7
2.9
2.7
154.9
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 4: Total Employment by sector - annual percentage changes
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
79.0
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
-32.6
Mining & quarrying
-12.5
Manufacturing, of which:
-0.6
Food products, beverages & tobacco
18.6
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
-34.5
Wood, paper products & printing
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals -26.1
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products-1.0
-14.6
Basic metals & metal products
-3.3
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
-20.6
Machinery & transport equipment
7.0
Other Manufacturing & repair
32.8
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
32.4
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
8.8
Construction
-6.9
Wholesale & retail trade
14.4
Transportation & storage
-5.6
Accommodation & food service activities
-2.1
Information & communication
18.5
Financial & insurance activities
3.6
Real estate activities
0.3
Professional, scientific & technical activities
28.7
Administrative & support service activities
-13.2
Public administration & defence
-7.3
Education
4.5
Human health & social work activities
-15.8
Arts, entertainment & recreation
9.1
Other service activities
2.1
Total
-9.2
70.7
-4.2
-6.9
-33.8
12.3
14.3
-31.6
23.2
-22.0
-15.1
17.5
-19.7
-25.2
-5.2
2.8
-22.8
4.6
34.6
-14.2
14.7
-5.6
4.7
-2.6
-6.9
-8.6
41.4
-9.0
-2.0
6.5
-23.4
-12.9
-2.5
14.9
-1.2
-7.4
-14.7
-30.4
-2.8
-16.5
-29.7
-24.4
20.2
-21.6
-2.0
3.1
50.0
-21.0
-0.2
-28.4
-0.2
7.5
-2.6
-6.6
4.4
8.8
-2.3
-0.3
-2.3
40.2
-3.1
-9.2
36.5
12.2
-12.3
-30.3
-0.4
26.2
23.0
-39.7
94.8
11.0
-15.2
5.6
-3.5
-16.7
11.9
-3.0
7.9
-2.6
3.1
8.0
-1.0
-0.5
-8.6
-1.1
-1.1
1.8
-4.1
-0.1
0.4
4.2
-3.3
2.1
-1.4
1.5
-4.8
2.7
-0.9
-11.1
4.8
2.0
5.0
-0.3
11.6
2.0
2.3
4.2
5.5
2.7
-8.8
-1.4
-0.4
-6.3
2.3
2.0
-0.8
-5.7
-1.3
-0.5
-1.8
-1.1
-1.4
-1.2
-1.3
-1.7
-1.4
-1.3
-2.0
-2.3
1.5
4.4
1.0
1.6
1.1
0.3
-0.3
1.4
1.6
-2.1
0.0
0.3
1.9
1.6
1.2
-1.1
-2.4
-1.1
-0.3
-1.5
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.1
-0.7
-2.7
-1.0
3.2
1.9
2.4
2.2
1.8
1.0
2.2
4.0
4.2
-2.8
-1.0
-0.5
2.2
2.2
1.6
-1.1
-2.6
-1.1
-0.4
-1.6
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-2.9
-1.1
2.9
2.0
2.5
2.4
1.8
0.4
2.1
3.3
3.5
-2.6
-1.2
-0.4
2.3
2.4
1.4
-1.2
-2.7
-1.2
-0.4
-1.7
-1.0
-1.3
-1.1
-1.2
-1.7
-1.3
-0.9
-3.0
-1.2
2.4
1.7
2.1
2.1
1.7
0.3
2.2
3.3
3.4
-2.5
-1.0
0.2
2.8
2.8
1.4
-1.2
-2.6
-1.4
-0.7
-1.9
-1.2
-1.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.9
-1.5
-1.1
-3.0
-1.2
2.2
1.8
1.6
2.0
1.5
0.3
2.5
3.5
3.6
-1.5
-0.4
0.2
2.5
2.6
1.6
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
-1.2
-2.6
-1.5
-0.8
-2.0
-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-2.0
-1.6
-1.3
-2.9
-1.2
1.7
1.6
1.1
1.7
1.1
0.4
2.1
3.2
3.2
-0.2
0.1
0.5
2.3
2.4
1.5
-1.2
-2.8
-1.5
-0.8
-2.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-2.0
-1.6
-1.3
-2.9
-1.1
1.4
1.2
0.7
1.3
0.9
0.4
1.3
2.3
2.3
0.1
0.3
0.7
1.5
1.5
1.2
2023-28
avg pa
-1.2
-3.2
-1.8
-1.1
-2.4
-1.7
-1.9
-1.8
-1.9
-2.3
-1.9
-1.6
-3.1
-1.2
1.0
0.4
0.0
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.8
1.6
1.6
-0.1
0.1
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.7
2028-33
avg pa
-1.2
-3.2
-1.8
-1.1
-2.4
-1.7
-1.9
-1.8
-1.9
-2.3
-1.9
-1.6
-3.1
-1.1
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.8
1.5
1.5
-0.2
0.0
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
Summary tables – Stockport
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64)
Residence employment rate (16-64)
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64)
Unemployment rate (15-64)
Output
Total GVA (£2009m)
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
280.6
169.9
179.2
-0.5
0.1
-0.5
281.5
170.6
179.5
0.2
0.5
-0.3
282.2
171.1
179.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
283.3
170.4
180.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
284.0
170.7
180.5
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
284.8
171.0
181.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
285.4
171.2
181.4
-0.3
0.1
-0.4
286.1
171.2
181.8
-0.3
0.2
-0.5
287.0
171.4
182.4
-0.2
0.2
-0.4
287.8
171.8
182.9
-0.1
0.3
-0.4
288.8
172.2
183.6
-0.1
0.3
-0.4
293.7
173.0
186.7
0.1
0.4
-0.3
298.8
169.9
189.9
0.3
0.5
-0.2
303.4
166.7
192.9
0.3
0.5
-0.2
126.73
23.8
150.5
136.2
130.4
76.7
72.7
5.9
3.4
2.2
1.9
123.15
20.3
143.4
128.8
127.6
74.8
71.1
1.2
6.2
4.1
3.5
120.20
20.4
140.6
125.5
126.3
73.8
70.4
-0.7
6.0
4.1
3.3
118.40
19.3
137.7
123.1
125.2
73.5
69.5
-2.1
5.8
4.1
3.2
115.69
20.0
135.7
121.5
124.4
72.9
68.9
-2.9
6.1
4.3
3.4
113.81
19.5
133.3
119.4
123.2
72.0
68.1
-3.8
6.1
4.4
3.4
114.05
19.5
133.5
119.5
123.8
72.3
68.2
-4.3
6.0
4.3
3.3
114.59
19.6
134.2
120.0
124.7
72.8
68.6
-4.6
5.8
4.2
3.2
115.32
19.7
135.0
120.7
125.7
73.3
68.9
-5.0
5.7
4.0
3.1
116.20
19.8
136.0
121.4
126.8
73.8
69.3
-5.4
5.5
3.9
3.0
117.10
19.9
137.0
122.2
127.9
74.3
69.7
-5.7
5.2
3.7
2.9
119.81
20.4
140.2
124.6
131.2
75.9
70.3
-6.7
4.7
3.3
2.5
121.43
20.8
142.3
126.1
133.0
78.3
70.0
-6.9
4.4
3.0
2.3
123.90
21.4
145.3
128.5
134.5
80.7
69.8
-6.1
4.3
2.9
2.2
5446
100
5141
104
5365
107
5361
108
5151
106
5160
107
5268
107
5398
107
5534
107
5681
107
5834
107
6695
107
7582
107
8517
107
122
125
123
126
124
126
125
126
126
125
127
126
127
127
128
128
129
129
130
130
131
131
135
135
140
139
144
144
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
0.4
-0.4
0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.4
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.8
14.1
4.5
4.4
-1.7
-1.4
-1.3
8.0
16.2
0.2
0.3
-2.8
-14.8
-4.7
-5.5
-2.1
-2.0
-1.6
-4.7
84.2
2.0
1.6
-2.4
0.9
-1.9
-2.5
-1.0
-1.0
-0.7
-1.9
-3.2
-0.1
-0.1
-1.5
-5.6
-2.1
-1.9
-0.8
-0.3
-0.9
-1.4
-2.7
0.0
-0.1
-2.3
3.6
-1.5
-1.3
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.8
4.5
0.2
0.1
-1.6
-2.3
-1.7
-1.7
-1.0
-0.8
-0.9
-0.8
-0.4
0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
-0.5
-1.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.5
0.3
-0.4
-2.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.5
0.3
-0.3
-2.8
-0.1
-0.1
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.5
0.4
-0.4
-4.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.5
0.4
-0.3
-3.8
-0.2
-0.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.2
3.7
-2.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.0
0.8
-1.5
-0.1
0.0
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.5
-0.1
-2.1
-0.6
0.0
0.0
2.8
-0.8
-5.6
3.5
4.4
3.0
-0.1
0.6
-3.9
-1.2
0.2
0.6
2.1
0.1
2.5
0.1
2.5
0.0
2.6
0.0
2.7
0.0
2.8
0.0
2.6
0.0
2.3
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.7
0.4
0.7
0.1
0.9
0.1
0.7
-0.2
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64) pp
Residence employment rate (16-64) pp
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64) pp
Unemployment rate (15-64) pp
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
2023-28
avg pa
2028-33
avg pa
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Stockport (continued)
Table 3: Total Employment by sector
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
0.7
Mining & quarrying
0.0
Manufacturing, of which:
13.4
Food products, beverages & tobacco
1.9
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
0.4
Wood, paper products & printing
2.4
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
0.9
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products 1.1
Basic metals & metal products
1.2
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
1.8
Machinery & transport equipment
2.7
Other Manufacturing & repair
1.2
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
0.0
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
0.6
Construction
22.0
Wholesale & retail trade
25.2
Transportation & storage
6.7
Accommodation & food service activities
6.1
Information & communication
5.0
Financial & insurance activities
5.5
Real estate activities
1.6
Professional, scientific & technical activities
11.3
Administrative & support service activities
11.7
Public administration & defence
5.7
Education
10.1
Human health & social work activities
16.7
Arts, entertainment & recreation
2.6
Other service activities
5.6
Total
150.5
0.6
0.0
12.6
1.9
0.7
2.2
0.6
0.6
1.3
1.9
2.3
1.1
3.0
0.6
12.3
23.2
4.5
6.1
5.5
5.4
1.7
10.9
13.8
7.1
9.8
17.0
3.5
5.7
143.4
0.7
0.0
11.1
2.1
0.7
1.5
0.6
0.5
1.1
1.8
1.7
1.0
4.7
0.6
11.1
22.8
4.6
5.5
4.5
5.8
1.5
10.8
13.8
5.8
9.9
18.4
3.4
5.7
140.6
0.7
0.0
11.7
1.5
0.9
2.6
0.8
0.6
1.1
2.0
1.6
0.6
4.5
0.7
9.8
23.7
3.8
6.2
5.0
5.3
1.6
10.7
12.3
5.7
10.2
17.4
2.8
5.7
137.7
0.7
0.0
11.6
1.5
1.0
2.5
0.8
0.6
1.1
1.9
1.7
0.6
4.1
0.7
10.1
22.8
3.8
5.8
5.2
5.3
1.6
11.2
12.6
5.2
9.9
17.4
2.7
4.8
135.7
0.7
0.0
11.5
1.5
1.0
2.5
0.8
0.6
1.1
1.8
1.7
0.6
4.0
0.7
9.9
21.4
3.9
5.8
5.2
5.4
1.6
11.0
12.3
5.1
9.9
17.4
2.8
4.8
133.3
0.7
0.0
11.3
1.5
0.9
2.4
0.8
0.6
1.1
1.8
1.6
0.6
4.0
0.7
10.0
21.6
3.9
5.9
5.3
5.4
1.7
11.0
12.4
4.9
9.7
17.2
2.8
4.9
133.5
0.6
0.0
11.2
1.5
0.9
2.4
0.8
0.6
1.1
1.8
1.6
0.6
4.0
0.7
10.2
21.9
4.0
6.0
5.4
5.4
1.7
11.2
12.6
4.7
9.5
17.1
2.9
5.0
134.2
0.6
0.0
11.1
1.5
0.9
2.4
0.7
0.6
1.0
1.8
1.6
0.6
3.9
0.7
10.3
22.1
4.1
6.1
5.5
5.4
1.7
11.4
12.9
4.6
9.4
17.1
2.9
5.1
135.0
0.6
0.0
11.0
1.5
0.9
2.4
0.7
0.6
1.0
1.7
1.6
0.6
3.9
0.7
10.5
22.3
4.1
6.2
5.6
5.4
1.8
11.7
13.2
4.5
9.3
17.1
3.0
5.2
136.0
0.6
0.0
10.8
1.4
0.9
2.3
0.7
0.6
1.0
1.7
1.6
0.6
3.8
0.7
10.6
22.5
4.2
6.2
5.6
5.5
1.8
11.9
13.5
4.5
9.2
17.1
3.0
5.2
137.0
0.6
0.0
10.0
1.4
0.8
2.2
0.7
0.5
0.9
1.5
1.4
0.5
3.6
0.6
11.2
23.1
4.2
6.4
5.8
5.5
1.9
12.6
14.4
4.5
9.2
17.7
3.2
5.5
140.2
0.6
0.0
9.2
1.3
0.7
2.0
0.6
0.5
0.9
1.4
1.3
0.5
3.4
0.6
11.8
23.2
4.2
6.5
5.9
5.6
2.0
13.2
15.1
4.5
9.1
18.3
3.4
5.6
142.3
0.6
0.0
8.4
1.3
0.6
1.9
0.6
0.5
0.8
1.2
1.2
0.5
3.2
0.6
12.5
23.5
4.1
6.6
6.0
5.7
2.1
14.0
16.0
4.6
9.2
19.1
3.5
5.7
145.3
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
-14.8
Mining & quarrying
-36.0
Manufacturing, of which:
-1.5
Food products, beverages & tobacco
7.0
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
-40.9
Wood, paper products & printing
3.0
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
53.7
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products11.6
Basic metals & metal products
-10.1
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
-13.0
Machinery & transport equipment
-7.4
Other Manufacturing & repair
7.5
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
-33.4
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
41.6
Construction
40.6
Wholesale & retail trade
-3.5
Transportation & storage
-5.0
Accommodation & food service activities
24.1
Information & communication
-23.1
Financial & insurance activities
18.7
Real estate activities
8.5
Professional, scientific & technical activities
-1.9
Administrative & support service activities
8.2
Public administration & defence
-18.7
Education
8.0
Human health & social work activities
0.0
Arts, entertainment & recreation
17.7
Other service activities
7.5
Total
4.5
-6.7
14.2
-6.1
-1.1
64.7
-6.8
-32.8
-44.4
10.0
8.9
-12.4
-7.6
7481.5
11.6
-44.0
-7.6
-33.1
1.1
10.8
-0.7
5.0
-4.2
17.9
23.4
-2.2
1.9
32.4
1.4
-4.7
7.4
6.0
-11.8
10.6
8.1
-32.9
9.2
-9.4
-13.3
-6.9
-27.8
-5.0
57.3
-11.5
-9.9
-2.0
3.1
-9.5
-19.0
6.6
-10.4
-0.8
-0.3
-17.8
0.9
8.1
-2.3
0.8
-1.9
-3.3
-11.9
4.7
-28.7
26.3
69.8
20.1
14.2
-4.0
8.7
-3.0
-39.2
-3.7
19.6
-11.6
4.1
-17.3
11.4
11.8
-9.0
4.2
-0.8
-10.2
-2.0
2.4
-5.4
-15.6
-0.7
-2.1
0.7
-4.2
-0.5
0.5
4.1
-2.9
2.1
-1.2
1.6
-4.6
2.8
-0.7
-9.6
4.7
2.8
-3.6
-0.1
-5.8
3.7
1.5
3.6
4.8
1.8
-9.0
-2.1
0.2
-4.5
-15.6
-1.5
-0.5
-5.8
-1.2
-0.4
-1.7
-1.1
-1.3
-1.2
-1.3
-1.7
-1.3
-1.3
-0.3
-2.4
-1.6
-6.2
0.4
0.6
1.0
0.2
-0.4
-2.3
-2.1
-2.5
-0.8
-0.1
1.4
0.7
-1.7
-0.8
-2.5
-1.0
-0.2
-1.5
-0.9
-1.1
-0.9
-1.0
-1.5
-1.1
-0.7
-1.0
-1.1
0.5
1.0
1.7
1.3
1.6
0.8
2.1
0.7
0.9
-3.3
-1.8
-0.9
1.7
1.3
0.1
-0.8
-2.7
-1.1
-0.3
-1.6
-0.9
-1.2
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.1
-0.8
-1.2
-1.2
1.8
1.1
2.0
1.5
1.7
0.3
2.1
1.6
1.8
-3.0
-1.8
-0.8
1.9
1.6
0.5
-0.8
-2.8
-1.1
-0.4
-1.6
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.2
-0.9
-1.3
-1.3
1.7
1.0
1.6
1.3
1.6
0.1
2.2
2.0
2.2
-2.8
-1.6
-0.1
2.4
2.1
0.6
-0.8
-2.7
-1.3
-0.6
-1.9
-1.2
-1.4
-1.3
-1.4
-1.8
-1.4
-1.1
-1.3
-1.3
1.7
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.3
0.1
2.5
2.3
2.6
-1.9
-1.0
-0.1
2.1
1.8
0.7
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 4: Total Employment by sector - annual percentage changes
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
-0.8
-2.7
-1.5
-0.7
-2.0
-1.3
-1.6
-1.4
-1.5
-1.9
-1.6
-1.2
-1.2
-1.2
1.3
0.9
0.8
1.0
1.0
0.3
2.1
2.1
2.2
-0.4
-0.4
0.4
2.1
1.8
0.7
2023-28
avg pa
-0.7
-2.9
-1.4
-0.7
-2.0
-1.3
-1.5
-1.4
-1.5
-1.9
-1.5
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.7
0.8
0.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.6
1.4
1.1
0.5
2028-33
avg pa
-0.7
-3.3
-1.7
-1.0
-2.3
-1.6
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-2.2
-1.8
-1.5
-1.2
-1.2
1.0
0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.7
1.0
1.0
0.0
-0.1
0.6
0.8
0.4
0.3
-0.7
-3.2
-1.7
-1.1
-2.3
-1.6
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-2.2
-1.8
-1.5
-1.1
-1.2
1.1
0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.8
1.0
1.1
0.2
0.1
0.8
0.9
0.6
0.4
Summary tables - Tameside
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64)
Residence employment rate (16-64)
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64)
Unemployment rate (15-64)
Output
Total GVA (£2009m)
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
215.9
133.7
140.5
0.6
0.5
0.1
217.1
134.6
141.0
0.5
0.4
0.2
218.9
135.7
141.6
0.7
0.3
0.4
219.7
136.4
142.1
-0.4
0.2
-0.6
220.2
136.4
142.4
-0.3
0.4
-0.6
221.1
136.4
143.0
-0.2
0.4
-0.6
221.6
136.3
143.4
-0.4
0.4
-0.8
222.1
136.2
143.7
-0.6
0.4
-0.9
222.6
136.2
144.0
-0.5
0.4
-0.9
223.1
136.2
144.3
-0.5
0.4
-0.9
223.6
136.3
144.6
-0.5
0.4
-0.9
225.7
135.8
146.0
-0.4
0.5
-0.9
227.6
132.7
147.2
-0.2
0.8
-1.0
229.7
130.1
148.6
-0.1
1.0
-1.1
67.8
11.7
79.5
76.0
96.4
72.1
68.6
-20.4
3.7
4.5
2.6
69.7
11.7
81.4
77.6
93.9
69.8
66.6
-16.3
6.5
7.4
4.6
65.5
11.7
77.2
73.6
92.8
68.4
65.5
-19.2
6.4
7.6
4.5
63.8
10.9
74.7
71.1
91.1
66.8
64.1
-20.0
6.5
8.1
4.6
64.2
11.6
75.9
72.3
92.0
67.4
64.6
-19.7
7.1
8.5
5.0
65.1
11.7
76.8
73.1
92.7
67.9
64.8
-19.5
7.3
8.6
5.1
65.4
11.7
77.1
73.4
93.2
68.4
65.0
-19.8
7.2
8.5
5.0
65.5
11.8
77.2
73.6
93.7
68.8
65.2
-20.2
7.0
8.3
4.8
65.6
11.8
77.4
73.7
94.2
69.2
65.5
-20.6
6.7
8.0
4.7
65.8
11.8
77.6
73.9
94.8
69.6
65.7
-21.0
6.4
7.6
4.4
66.0
11.8
77.8
74.0
95.4
70.0
66.0
-21.4
6.1
7.3
4.2
66.3
11.7
78.0
74.2
96.9
71.3
66.4
-22.7
5.4
6.5
3.7
65.8
11.7
77.4
73.6
97.1
73.2
66.0
-23.6
4.9
5.9
3.3
65.8
11.7
77.5
73.6
98.0
75.3
65.9
-24.4
4.6
5.7
3.1
2751
96
2699
96
2689
98
2690
100
2685
99
2734
98
2796
98
2854
98
2910
98
2970
98
3033
98
3398
98
3760
98
4130
97
93
98
94
99
95
99
96
99
96
99
97
100
98
100
98
101
99
102
99
102
100
103
103
105
105
108
107
110
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.7
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.8
0.9
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.4
-1.1
-0.1
-1.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-4.0
1.1
-3.3
-3.3
0.7
-0.1
0.1
-3.3
13.8
0.6
0.3
2.8
-0.1
2.4
2.1
-2.6
-2.3
-2.0
4.1
76.5
3.0
2.0
-6.0
-0.1
-5.1
-5.1
-1.2
-1.4
-1.0
-2.9
-2.6
0.2
-0.1
-2.6
-6.7
-3.3
-3.3
-1.8
-1.6
-1.4
-0.7
2.6
0.4
0.1
0.6
6.8
1.5
1.6
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.3
8.0
0.5
0.4
1.4
0.3
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.2
2.6
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.3
-0.3
-1.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.2
-0.4
-2.9
-0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.2
-0.4
-3.4
-0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.4
-4.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.4
-4.4
-0.3
-0.2
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.1
1.3
-2.9
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.8
-2.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.7
-1.1
-0.1
0.0
-6.0
-2.0
-1.9
0.1
-0.4
1.6
0.0
1.9
-0.2
-0.4
1.8
-0.7
2.3
0.0
2.1
-0.1
2.0
-0.1
2.1
-0.1
2.1
-0.1
2.3
-0.1
2.1
0.0
1.9
-0.1
1.3
0.7
0.8
0.7
1.2
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.6
-0.3
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64) pp
Residence employment rate (16-64) pp
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64) pp
Unemployment rate (15-64) pp
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
2023-28
avg pa
2028-33
avg pa
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Tameside (continued)
Table 3: Total Employment by sector
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
0.4
Mining & quarrying
0.0
Manufacturing, of which:
13.8
Food products, beverages & tobacco
2.5
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
1.3
Wood, paper products & printing
1.0
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
0.9
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products 1.8
Basic metals & metal products
1.9
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
0.8
Machinery & transport equipment
1.6
Other Manufacturing & repair
1.9
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
0.0
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
0.7
Construction
7.9
Wholesale & retail trade
16.1
Transportation & storage
2.8
Accommodation & food service activities
3.3
Information & communication
1.2
Financial & insurance activities
0.9
Real estate activities
0.9
Professional, scientific & technical activities
3.0
Administrative & support service activities
3.9
Public administration & defence
3.5
Education
7.1
Human health & social work activities
9.7
Arts, entertainment & recreation
1.8
Other service activities
2.6
Total
79.5
0.3
0.0
14.4
1.9
1.4
1.1
0.9
1.7
2.2
0.6
2.0
2.5
0.6
0.4
6.5
15.4
2.6
3.6
1.2
0.9
1.1
3.1
3.9
5.0
6.8
10.7
2.3
2.8
81.4
0.4
0.0
12.5
1.7
1.1
0.9
0.8
1.7
1.9
0.8
1.5
2.2
0.5
0.4
5.9
14.7
2.5
3.2
1.1
0.8
1.0
3.2
3.8
4.7
6.7
10.9
2.3
2.6
77.2
0.4
0.0
12.1
1.9
1.4
1.1
0.8
1.3
1.8
0.9
1.8
1.0
0.7
0.4
5.5
15.1
2.4
3.4
1.0
0.9
1.0
3.0
3.4
4.5
6.5
10.3
1.8
2.4
74.7
0.4
0.0
12.1
1.9
1.4
1.1
0.8
1.3
1.9
0.8
1.9
1.0
0.6
0.4
5.6
16.0
2.4
3.9
1.1
0.9
1.0
3.1
3.4
4.1
6.3
10.3
1.7
2.5
75.9
0.4
0.0
12.0
1.9
1.4
1.1
0.8
1.3
1.8
0.8
1.9
1.0
0.6
0.4
5.6
17.1
2.4
3.9
1.1
0.9
1.0
3.1
3.5
4.0
6.3
10.3
1.8
2.5
76.8
0.4
0.0
11.9
1.9
1.4
1.1
0.8
1.2
1.8
0.8
1.8
1.0
0.6
0.4
5.8
17.3
2.5
3.9
1.1
0.9
1.0
3.2
3.6
3.9
6.1
10.1
1.8
2.5
77.1
0.4
0.0
11.7
1.9
1.4
1.1
0.8
1.2
1.8
0.8
1.8
1.0
0.6
0.4
5.9
17.6
2.5
4.0
1.1
1.0
1.0
3.2
3.7
3.8
6.0
10.0
1.8
2.6
77.2
0.4
0.0
11.6
1.9
1.3
1.1
0.8
1.2
1.8
0.8
1.8
1.0
0.6
0.4
5.9
17.8
2.6
4.0
1.1
1.0
1.1
3.3
3.7
3.6
5.9
9.9
1.9
2.6
77.4
0.3
0.0
11.5
1.9
1.3
1.0
0.8
1.2
1.8
0.7
1.8
1.0
0.6
0.4
6.0
17.9
2.6
4.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
3.3
3.8
3.6
5.8
9.9
1.9
2.7
77.6
0.3
0.0
11.3
1.9
1.3
1.0
0.8
1.2
1.7
0.7
1.7
1.0
0.6
0.4
6.0
18.1
2.6
4.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
3.4
3.9
3.5
5.8
9.9
1.9
2.7
77.8
0.3
0.0
10.5
1.8
1.2
1.0
0.7
1.1
1.6
0.7
1.6
0.9
0.5
0.4
6.1
18.6
2.6
4.2
1.1
1.0
1.2
3.5
4.1
3.5
5.7
9.9
2.0
2.8
78.0
0.3
0.0
9.6
1.7
1.0
0.9
0.7
1.0
1.5
0.6
1.5
0.8
0.5
0.4
6.2
18.7
2.5
4.2
1.1
1.0
1.3
3.5
4.3
3.5
5.6
10.0
2.1
2.8
77.4
0.3
0.0
8.9
1.6
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.3
0.5
1.3
0.8
0.4
0.4
6.3
18.9
2.5
4.3
1.1
1.0
1.3
3.6
4.5
3.5
5.5
10.1
2.2
2.8
77.5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
13.7
Mining & quarrying
798.0
Manufacturing, of which:
-11.7
Food products, beverages & tobacco
1.6
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
-37.8
Wood, paper products & printing
-14.2
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
-1.7
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products-10.2
Basic metals & metal products
-6.0
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
-4.1
Machinery & transport equipment
-19.5
Other Manufacturing & repair
-7.0
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
-89.2
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
165.6
Construction
9.7
Wholesale & retail trade
0.9
Transportation & storage
-13.2
Accommodation & food service activities
17.6
Information & communication
-18.3
Financial & insurance activities
3.0
Real estate activities
-5.2
Professional, scientific & technical activities
-14.6
Administrative & support service activities
9.1
Public administration & defence
-11.3
Education
-5.7
Human health & social work activities
-2.3
Arts, entertainment & recreation
-4.3
Other service activities
-9.7
Total
-3.3
-6.2
0.9
4.0
-21.6
7.8
5.4
-2.0
-8.9
15.5
-19.8
19.2
34.6
1667.4
-43.5
-17.5
-4.2
-6.5
9.8
-3.3
-0.7
13.9
3.3
-1.2
44.1
-5.0
9.9
26.6
9.5
2.4
7.6
-0.9
-13.0
-10.3
-22.8
-14.3
-14.8
0.0
-16.9
28.2
-25.0
-14.6
-10.2
13.1
-9.4
-4.8
-3.2
-10.9
-3.7
-5.1
-8.8
3.8
-2.8
-6.2
-1.2
2.1
2.8
-7.6
-5.1
-3.5
136.9
-3.6
9.8
28.6
19.2
4.5
-23.1
-0.7
5.3
24.0
-52.5
37.3
-2.8
-6.8
3.3
-3.4
4.8
-7.2
15.6
-2.4
-7.5
-10.3
-4.6
-3.3
-5.3
-22.7
-8.7
-3.3
0.3
-4.3
0.6
0.5
4.0
-2.9
2.1
-1.2
1.6
-4.6
2.8
-0.7
-10.4
4.9
1.5
5.8
0.2
14.5
2.2
0.7
3.8
3.7
1.4
-9.0
-2.2
-0.3
-4.3
4.8
1.5
-0.6
-6.0
-1.2
-0.5
-1.8
-1.1
-1.3
-1.2
-1.3
-1.7
-1.3
-1.3
-1.1
-2.2
0.9
6.9
0.3
0.6
0.7
0.0
-0.1
0.4
1.1
-2.5
-0.8
-0.4
1.5
0.6
1.2
-0.9
-2.7
-1.0
-0.2
-1.5
-0.9
-1.1
-0.9
-1.0
-1.5
-1.1
-0.7
-1.9
-0.9
3.1
1.2
1.7
1.2
1.3
0.7
2.5
3.4
4.0
-3.3
-1.9
-1.3
1.7
1.1
0.4
-0.9
-2.8
-1.0
-0.3
-1.6
-0.9
-1.2
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.2
-0.8
-2.0
-1.0
1.6
1.3
1.8
1.4
1.4
0.1
2.4
1.6
2.2
-3.0
-2.0
-1.2
1.9
1.3
0.2
-0.9
-2.9
-1.1
-0.4
-1.7
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.2
-0.9
-2.1
-1.1
1.0
1.1
1.4
1.2
1.3
0.0
2.5
1.5
2.1
-3.0
-1.8
-0.6
2.3
1.8
0.2
-1.0
-2.9
-1.3
-0.6
-1.9
-1.2
-1.4
-1.3
-1.4
-1.8
-1.4
-1.1
-2.1
-1.1
0.9
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.0
0.0
2.8
1.7
2.3
-2.0
-1.2
-0.5
2.1
1.5
0.3
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 4: Total Employment by sector - annual percentage changes
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
-0.9
-2.8
-1.4
-0.7
-2.0
-1.3
-1.6
-1.4
-1.5
-1.9
-1.6
-1.2
-2.0
-1.0
0.4
1.0
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.1
2.4
1.4
1.9
-0.6
-0.6
-0.2
2.0
1.4
0.3
-0.8
-3.1
-1.4
-0.7
-2.0
-1.3
-1.5
-1.4
-1.5
-1.9
-1.5
-1.2
-2.0
-1.0
0.3
0.7
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.2
1.6
0.7
1.2
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
1.3
0.7
0.1
2023-28
avg pa
-0.8
-3.5
-1.7
-1.0
-2.3
-1.6
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-2.2
-1.8
-1.5
-2.0
-1.0
0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.1
0.0
0.1
1.1
0.3
0.8
-0.2
-0.4
0.1
0.7
0.1
-0.1
2028-33
avg pa
-0.8
-3.4
-1.7
-1.1
-2.3
-1.6
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-2.2
-1.8
-1.5
-2.0
-1.0
0.4
0.2
-0.4
0.2
0.0
0.1
1.1
0.4
0.8
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.8
0.2
0.0
Summary tables - Trafford
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64)
Residence employment rate (16-64)
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64)
Unemployment rate (15-64)
Output
Total GVA (£2009m)
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
219.7
134.6
141.2
0.2
-0.4
0.6
222.3
136.3
142.4
1.5
0.4
1.1
225.2
138.2
144.1
1.9
0.4
1.5
227.1
139.1
145.3
0.7
0.4
0.3
228.7
140.1
146.3
0.6
0.5
0.1
230.3
140.9
147.3
0.4
0.5
-0.1
231.6
141.5
148.1
0.1
0.5
-0.4
232.5
141.7
148.8
-0.3
0.3
-0.6
233.4
142.0
149.3
-0.4
0.3
-0.7
234.0
142.4
149.7
-0.5
0.3
-0.8
234.7
142.7
150.1
-0.6
0.3
-0.9
237.4
142.4
151.9
-0.8
0.3
-1.1
239.0
137.9
152.9
-0.9
0.4
-1.4
239.7
132.4
153.3
-0.8
0.8
-1.6
124.5
13.1
137.6
111.2
101.6
75.5
72.0
9.6
2.5
1.8
1.8
125.3
13.6
138.9
111.7
100.1
73.4
70.3
11.7
4.5
3.1
3.2
124.9
14.0
139.0
111.5
99.4
72.0
69.0
12.1
4.5
3.1
3.1
126.7
13.7
140.4
112.0
99.5
71.5
68.5
12.5
4.4
3.1
3.1
123.9
14.2
138.2
110.8
99.2
70.8
67.8
11.6
4.6
3.2
3.2
119.4
13.7
133.2
107.0
97.6
69.3
66.3
9.3
4.5
3.3
3.1
119.2
13.6
132.8
106.3
97.8
69.1
66.0
8.5
4.4
3.2
3.0
120.0
13.6
133.6
106.7
98.5
69.5
66.2
8.2
4.3
3.1
2.9
121.1
13.7
134.8
107.3
99.3
69.9
66.5
8.0
4.2
3.0
2.8
122.5
13.8
136.3
108.1
100.2
70.4
66.9
7.9
4.1
2.9
2.7
123.7
13.9
137.6
108.8
101.1
70.8
67.3
7.7
3.9
2.8
2.6
126.4
14.1
140.5
110.0
103.3
72.6
68.0
6.7
3.5
2.5
2.3
126.9
14.2
141.1
109.9
104.1
75.5
68.1
5.8
3.2
2.2
2.1
127.9
14.3
142.2
110.1
105.1
79.4
68.5
5.1
3.1
2.1
2.0
5679
115
5526
115
5749
116
5907
116
5783
117
5745
119
5853
120
6013
120
6188
120
6378
120
6579
120
7628
122
8637
123
9670
124
96
96
97
96
99
97
100
97
101
97
102
98
103
99
104
100
105
100
105
101
106
102
109
104
111
107
113
109
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64) pp
Residence employment rate (16-64) pp
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64) pp
Unemployment rate (15-64) pp
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
2023-28
avg pa
2028-33
avg pa
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.6
0.7
0.5
-0.5
-0.4
0.0
1.1
1.3
0.9
1.3
0.8
0.5
1.3
1.4
1.2
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
0.7
0.8
-1.2
-0.1
-1.2
0.7
0.7
0.7
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.7
0.6
0.7
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.6
0.4
0.6
-0.4
0.0
-0.3
0.4
0.2
0.4
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
-0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.8
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-1.7
1.0
-1.5
-0.9
-1.7
-1.9
-1.6
0.8
8.9
0.2
0.1
0.7
3.9
1.0
0.5
-1.5
-2.1
-1.7
2.1
79.7
1.3
1.4
-0.3
3.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.6
-1.4
-1.2
0.4
-0.7
0.0
-0.1
1.4
-2.8
1.0
0.4
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
0.4
-0.6
0.0
0.0
-2.2
4.2
-1.6
-1.0
-0.3
-0.7
-0.7
-0.9
4.3
0.2
0.1
-3.6
-3.6
-3.6
-3.5
-1.6
-1.5
-1.5
-2.3
-2.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-1.2
-0.3
-0.6
0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.8
-1.8
0.0
-0.1
0.7
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.2
-0.3
-2.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.9
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.8
0.4
0.3
-0.2
-2.5
-0.1
-0.1
1.1
0.7
1.1
0.7
0.9
0.5
0.4
-0.1
-3.6
-0.1
-0.1
1.0
0.7
1.0
0.7
0.9
0.5
0.4
-0.2
-3.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.2
-2.7
-2.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.6
0.0
-2.8
-1.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.1
-2.8
-0.9
0.0
0.0
-2.1
0.2
-2.7
0.7
4.0
0.6
2.8
0.3
-2.1
0.8
-0.7
1.7
1.9
0.3
2.7
0.2
2.9
0.1
3.1
0.1
3.1
0.2
3.0
0.3
2.6
0.2
2.3
0.2
3.4
0.5
1.5
0.6
1.7
0.2
1.2
0.2
1.1
0.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Trafford (continued)
Table 3: Total Employment by sector
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
0.3
Mining & quarrying
0.0
Manufacturing, of which:
10.9
Food products, beverages & tobacco
3.1
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
0.4
Wood, paper products & printing
1.9
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
0.8
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products 1.1
Basic metals & metal products
0.8
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
0.8
Machinery & transport equipment
1.0
Other Manufacturing & repair
0.9
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
0.2
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
0.9
Construction
12.0
Wholesale & retail trade
27.5
Transportation & storage
6.7
Accommodation & food service activities
6.6
Information & communication
6.1
Financial & insurance activities
3.3
Real estate activities
2.8
Professional, scientific & technical activities
12.5
Administrative & support service activities
19.5
Public administration & defence
4.5
Education
6.7
Human health & social work activities
10.5
Arts, entertainment & recreation
3.2
Other service activities
3.5
Total
137.6
0.2
0.0
11.5
3.1
0.4
1.1
2.1
1.1
0.8
0.6
1.2
1.1
1.3
0.8
11.4
26.0
6.7
6.4
5.3
3.8
2.8
12.9
19.3
5.2
7.3
10.6
3.8
3.7
138.9
0.3
0.0
10.5
3.1
0.4
0.9
1.8
0.9
0.6
0.6
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.0
10.4
25.9
6.3
6.4
4.3
3.6
2.2
14.6
21.3
5.5
7.0
11.0
3.7
3.7
139.0
0.2
0.0
9.8
2.8
0.4
1.3
1.2
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.1
0.9
1.6
1.1
8.5
26.4
6.2
7.8
5.0
3.6
2.6
15.7
21.5
5.4
7.2
10.1
3.5
4.0
140.4
0.3
0.0
9.8
2.8
0.5
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.1
0.9
1.4
1.1
8.8
24.3
6.4
6.4
5.3
3.7
2.7
17.0
22.6
4.9
7.1
10.0
3.3
2.9
138.2
0.2
0.0
9.7
2.8
0.5
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.1
0.9
1.4
1.1
8.6
20.6
6.4
6.5
5.3
3.7
2.7
16.6
22.0
4.8
7.1
10.0
3.4
3.0
133.2
0.2
0.0
9.6
2.8
0.5
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.1
0.9
1.4
1.1
8.4
20.9
6.4
6.5
5.4
3.8
2.8
16.4
21.7
4.6
7.0
9.9
3.5
3.0
132.8
0.2
0.0
9.5
2.8
0.4
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.1
0.9
1.4
1.1
8.5
21.2
6.5
6.6
5.5
3.8
2.9
16.6
21.9
4.5
6.9
9.8
3.5
3.1
133.6
0.2
0.0
9.4
2.8
0.4
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.1
0.9
1.4
1.1
8.6
21.4
6.6
6.7
5.6
3.8
2.9
17.0
22.3
4.4
6.8
9.8
3.6
3.2
134.8
0.2
0.0
9.3
2.7
0.4
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.6
1.1
0.9
1.4
1.1
8.7
21.6
6.7
6.7
5.6
3.9
3.0
17.4
22.9
4.3
6.7
9.7
3.7
3.2
136.3
0.2
0.0
9.2
2.7
0.4
1.1
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.6
1.0
0.9
1.3
1.0
8.8
21.8
6.8
6.8
5.7
3.9
3.1
17.9
23.4
4.2
6.7
9.7
3.8
3.3
137.6
0.2
0.0
8.6
2.6
0.4
1.1
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.6
1.0
0.8
1.3
1.0
9.0
22.2
6.8
6.8
5.8
4.0
3.3
18.9
24.4
4.2
6.7
9.8
4.0
3.5
140.5
0.2
0.0
7.9
2.5
0.3
1.0
0.9
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.7
1.2
0.9
9.1
22.0
6.7
6.7
5.8
4.2
3.4
19.6
24.9
4.1
6.7
9.9
4.1
3.5
141.1
0.2
0.0
7.3
2.3
0.3
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.8
0.7
1.1
0.9
9.2
21.9
6.7
6.7
5.8
4.3
3.5
20.5
25.5
4.1
6.7
9.9
4.3
3.6
142.2
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
17.0
Mining & quarrying
6.8
Manufacturing, of which:
-1.9
Food products, beverages & tobacco
-7.7
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
34.1
Wood, paper products & printing
4.5
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
-6.5
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products-3.3
Basic metals & metal products
8.5
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
20.4
Machinery & transport equipment
-15.8
Other Manufacturing & repair
-4.2
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
-19.5
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
-16.7
Construction
-4.4
Wholesale & retail trade
-1.3
Transportation & storage
3.1
Accommodation & food service activities
-10.3
Information & communication
-10.2
Financial & insurance activities
11.1
Real estate activities
7.8
Professional, scientific & technical activities
6.2
Administrative & support service activities
-9.3
Public administration & defence
2.9
Education
-0.2
Human health & social work activities
7.4
Arts, entertainment & recreation
-0.2
Other service activities
14.3
Total
-1.5
-9.1
34.4
5.8
0.7
8.2
-38.4
154.5
-1.6
-1.5
-28.4
12.0
15.3
744.2
-15.9
-4.7
-5.3
-1.0
-3.8
-12.5
13.8
2.0
3.6
-0.9
13.9
8.7
0.8
17.0
5.0
1.0
6.6
-0.9
-9.2
-0.3
-2.8
-19.8
-14.6
-19.0
-28.2
-5.0
-4.6
1.4
4.3
27.4
-9.3
-0.4
-5.8
1.0
-18.8
-4.0
-22.6
12.8
10.4
6.4
-3.4
4.4
-3.0
0.3
0.0
-2.3
19.1
-6.2
-9.6
13.6
37.5
-34.0
-17.3
6.3
29.6
-0.1
-16.3
11.9
6.6
-18.4
2.1
-1.7
20.8
16.4
0.7
19.6
8.0
1.2
-2.4
2.3
-7.9
-4.0
9.4
1.0
2.1
-4.6
0.0
0.4
4.2
-3.2
2.1
-1.4
1.5
-4.7
2.7
-0.9
-9.5
4.7
4.0
-8.0
3.5
-17.6
4.7
2.1
4.3
8.2
4.9
-8.8
-1.4
-1.2
-5.0
-27.0
-1.6
-0.4
-6.3
-1.1
-0.5
-1.7
-1.1
-1.3
-1.2
-1.3
-1.7
-1.3
-1.3
-0.1
-2.4
-2.2
-15.3
-0.4
0.5
0.8
0.7
-0.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.3
-0.2
-0.1
1.8
1.4
-3.6
-0.7
-3.0
-0.8
-0.3
-1.5
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.1
-0.7
-0.9
-1.1
-1.9
1.4
0.7
1.2
1.5
1.3
2.3
-1.2
-1.4
-3.1
-1.2
-0.9
2.1
2.0
-0.3
-0.8
-3.1
-0.9
-0.4
-1.6
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-1.0
-1.3
0.8
1.4
1.8
1.3
1.5
0.7
2.2
1.2
1.0
-3.0
-1.5
-0.9
2.1
2.0
0.6
-0.8
-3.2
-1.0
-0.4
-1.7
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.2
-0.9
-1.1
-1.4
1.3
1.1
1.6
1.0
1.4
0.6
2.3
2.2
1.9
-3.0
-1.4
-0.5
2.5
2.4
0.9
-0.8
-3.2
-1.2
-0.6
-1.9
-1.2
-1.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.8
-1.5
-1.1
-1.1
-1.4
1.5
1.0
1.3
0.8
1.2
0.6
2.6
2.7
2.4
-2.0
-0.8
-0.4
2.2
2.1
1.1
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 4: Total Employment by sector - annual percentage changes
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
-0.8
-3.1
-1.3
-0.8
-2.0
-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-2.0
-1.6
-1.2
-1.0
-1.3
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.9
0.7
2.2
2.4
2.1
-0.7
-0.2
-0.1
2.1
2.0
1.0
-0.8
-3.4
-1.3
-0.8
-2.0
-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-2.0
-1.6
-1.3
-1.0
-1.3
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.8
1.4
1.5
1.2
-0.3
0.0
0.2
1.4
1.2
0.6
2023-28
avg pa
-0.8
-3.7
-1.6
-1.1
-2.3
-1.6
-1.9
-1.7
-1.8
-2.3
-1.9
-1.6
-1.0
-1.3
0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.5
-0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.1
2028-33
avg pa
-0.8
-3.7
-1.6
-1.1
-2.3
-1.6
-1.9
-1.7
-1.8
-2.3
-1.9
-1.6
-1.0
-1.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.4
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.5
0.1
Summary tables - Wigan
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64)
Residence employment rate (16-64)
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64)
Unemployment rate (15-64)
Output
Total GVA (£2009m)
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
311.9
192.7
203.2
1.4
0.7
0.7
314.0
193.6
203.7
1.0
0.4
0.6
316.1
194.5
204.2
1.2
0.0
1.1
318.1
196.8
205.5
0.9
0.0
0.9
319.5
197.6
206.4
0.5
0.0
0.5
320.9
198.0
207.3
0.4
0.0
0.4
322.1
198.2
208.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
323.0
198.2
208.7
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
323.9
198.4
209.3
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
324.8
198.9
209.9
-0.2
0.2
-0.4
325.4
199.2
210.3
-0.3
0.2
-0.5
327.7
198.8
211.8
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
329.0
194.2
212.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
328.5
188.2
212.3
-0.3
-0.3
0.0
97.8
15.4
113.2
106.5
139.3
72.3
68.6
-32.9
5.5
4.6
2.7
99.4
15.3
114.7
107.5
139.7
72.2
68.6
-32.2
9.5
7.7
4.7
99.2
16.3
115.5
108.2
138.2
71.1
67.7
-30.1
8.9
7.2
4.4
93.8
15.0
108.9
101.4
140.0
71.1
68.1
-38.6
8.8
7.4
4.3
93.2
15.7
108.8
101.5
139.9
70.8
67.8
-38.4
9.3
7.9
4.5
93.6
15.5
109.1
101.7
139.9
70.7
67.5
-38.2
9.5
8.0
4.6
94.2
15.6
109.8
102.4
140.8
71.0
67.6
-38.4
9.4
7.9
4.5
94.8
15.7
110.5
103.0
141.6
71.5
67.9
-38.6
9.1
7.6
4.4
95.4
15.8
111.2
103.6
142.5
71.9
68.1
-38.9
8.9
7.4
4.2
96.1
15.8
112.0
104.3
143.5
72.1
68.4
-39.2
8.5
7.1
4.1
96.8
15.8
112.6
104.8
144.4
72.5
68.7
-39.5
8.2
6.8
3.9
98.0
15.9
113.9
105.8
146.3
73.6
69.1
-40.5
7.2
6.0
3.4
97.8
15.9
113.7
105.6
146.5
75.5
68.9
-40.9
6.6
5.5
3.1
98.1
15.9
114.0
105.8
147.5
78.4
69.5
-41.8
6.3
5.2
3.0
3751
92
3502
88
3693
90
3548
90
3878
100
3929
100
4025
99
4119
99
4214
99
4313
99
4415
99
4985
98
5546
98
6108
98
133
138
134
139
136
139
137
140
138
140
140
141
141
142
142
143
143
144
144
145
145
146
148
150
151
153
153
155
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.7
0.5
0.2
-0.4
-0.3
-0.1
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.1
-0.4
0.5
0.6
1.2
0.6
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
-0.4
0.0
-0.4
0.4
0.2
0.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.1
0.4
-0.3
0.1
-0.4
0.3
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.5
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.4
0.1
-2.1
-2.1
0.8
0.2
0.3
-3.4
15.3
0.7
0.3
1.6
-0.4
1.3
1.0
0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.7
74.4
3.1
2.0
-0.2
6.4
0.7
0.6
-1.0
-1.1
-0.9
2.1
-6.3
-0.5
-0.3
-5.4
-7.9
-5.7
-6.3
1.3
0.1
0.4
-8.5
-1.7
0.3
-0.1
-0.7
4.4
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.4
0.2
6.3
0.4
0.2
0.4
-0.8
0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
1.6
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.1
-0.2
-0.9
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.2
-2.5
-0.2
-0.1
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.3
-3.0
-0.3
-0.1
0.7
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.3
-0.3
-4.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.3
-0.3
-4.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.5
-2.7
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.2
-1.8
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.4
-1.0
-0.1
0.0
-2.4
0.4
-6.6
-3.7
5.5
1.4
-3.9
0.5
9.3
10.7
1.3
-0.2
2.4
-0.1
2.4
-0.2
2.3
-0.2
2.4
-0.2
2.4
-0.1
2.4
-0.1
2.2
0.0
1.9
0.0
2.7
1.4
1.0
0.8
1.1
0.4
1.1
0.3
0.9
0.2
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64) pp
Residence employment rate (16-64) pp
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64) pp
Unemployment rate (15-64) pp
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
2023-28
avg pa
2028-33
avg pa
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Wigan (continued)
Table 3: Total Employment by sector
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
1.0
Mining & quarrying
0.0
Manufacturing, of which:
14.1
Food products, beverages & tobacco
4.9
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
1.0
Wood, paper products & printing
1.0
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
0.7
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products 1.8
Basic metals & metal products
1.6
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
0.8
Machinery & transport equipment
1.5
Other Manufacturing & repair
0.7
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
0.0
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
0.9
Construction
14.0
Wholesale & retail trade
21.0
Transportation & storage
6.9
Accommodation & food service activities
5.7
Information & communication
1.5
Financial & insurance activities
1.6
Real estate activities
1.4
Professional, scientific & technical activities
4.8
Administrative & support service activities
8.4
Public administration & defence
4.2
Education
8.3
Human health & social work activities
13.4
Arts, entertainment & recreation
3.3
Other service activities
2.8
Total
113.2
0.9
0.0
14.0
4.9
1.0
1.2
0.9
1.2
1.6
0.5
1.3
1.4
0.0
0.6
12.0
20.1
5.5
6.0
1.4
1.7
1.4
5.1
10.5
4.4
9.1
15.4
3.8
2.7
114.7
1.0
0.0
12.9
4.9
0.9
1.2
0.6
1.2
1.5
0.5
1.0
1.1
0.0
0.8
11.8
20.0
6.1
5.7
1.3
1.4
1.3
5.4
10.9
4.3
9.7
16.0
4.0
2.9
115.5
0.9
0.0
11.3
3.8
1.0
1.2
0.7
1.0
1.4
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.0
0.6
9.9
18.9
6.9
6.5
1.3
1.4
1.3
4.7
9.4
4.4
8.6
15.6
3.9
3.2
108.9
1.0
0.0
11.3
3.8
1.0
1.2
0.7
1.0
1.4
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.0
0.6
9.7
19.4
7.0
7.0
1.4
1.4
1.4
4.8
9.3
4.0
8.4
15.5
3.7
3.1
108.8
1.0
0.0
11.2
3.8
1.0
1.2
0.7
1.0
1.4
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.0
0.6
9.6
20.0
7.0
7.0
1.4
1.4
1.4
4.7
9.2
3.9
8.4
15.5
3.7
3.1
109.1
0.9
0.0
11.1
3.8
1.0
1.2
0.7
1.0
1.4
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.0
0.6
9.8
20.2
7.1
7.1
1.4
1.4
1.4
4.8
9.5
3.7
8.2
15.4
3.8
3.2
109.8
0.9
0.0
11.0
3.7
1.0
1.2
0.7
1.0
1.4
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.0
0.6
10.0
20.5
7.3
7.2
1.4
1.4
1.5
4.9
9.7
3.6
8.1
15.2
3.9
3.3
110.5
0.9
0.0
10.9
3.7
1.0
1.2
0.7
1.0
1.4
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.0
0.6
10.1
20.8
7.4
7.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
5.0
9.9
3.5
7.9
15.2
4.0
3.3
111.2
0.9
0.0
10.8
3.7
0.9
1.1
0.7
1.0
1.3
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.0
0.6
10.3
21.0
7.5
7.4
1.4
1.3
1.6
5.1
10.1
3.4
7.8
15.2
4.1
3.4
112.0
0.9
0.0
10.7
3.7
0.9
1.1
0.7
1.0
1.3
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.0
0.6
10.3
21.2
7.5
7.4
1.5
1.3
1.6
5.2
10.3
3.4
7.8
15.2
4.1
3.5
112.6
0.9
0.0
10.0
3.5
0.8
1.1
0.6
0.9
1.2
0.5
0.8
0.5
0.0
0.5
10.4
21.7
7.5
7.6
1.5
1.3
1.7
5.4
10.8
3.3
7.6
15.5
4.3
3.6
113.9
0.9
0.0
9.2
3.3
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.8
1.1
0.4
0.7
0.5
0.0
0.5
10.5
21.7
7.4
7.6
1.5
1.3
1.8
5.6
11.2
3.2
7.5
15.7
4.4
3.6
113.7
0.8
0.0
8.5
3.2
0.7
0.9
0.5
0.8
1.0
0.4
0.7
0.5
0.0
0.5
10.7
21.7
7.3
7.6
1.5
1.3
1.9
5.7
11.6
3.2
7.3
15.9
4.6
3.7
114.0
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 4: Total Employment by sector - annual percentage changes
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
-17.0
Mining & quarrying
-22.1
Manufacturing, of which:
-8.1
Food products, beverages & tobacco
-8.7
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
-1.4
Wood, paper products & printing
-19.0
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
9.4
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products-0.4
Basic metals & metal products
-8.9
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
1.2
Machinery & transport equipment
-7.0
Other Manufacturing & repair
-30.1
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
-91.3
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
17.8
Construction
-1.1
Wholesale & retail trade
2.6
Transportation & storage
0.3
Accommodation & food service activities
-2.1
Information & communication
-13.2
Financial & insurance activities
-9.9
Real estate activities
16.6
Professional, scientific & technical activities
-9.2
Administrative & support service activities
0.2
Public administration & defence
-7.4
Education
-3.5
Human health & social work activities
0.1
Arts, entertainment & recreation
-9.2
Other service activities
13.3
Total
-2.1
-7.3
0.9
-0.1
-0.6
5.4
14.1
19.5
-33.5
4.8
-39.3
-12.0
97.8
-94.7
-31.9
-13.8
-4.3
-20.7
5.9
-3.8
7.2
-0.6
5.0
25.5
5.4
9.6
14.6
14.3
-4.2
1.3
7.2
-34.6
-8.2
-0.5
-9.7
6.3
-30.3
1.2
-8.8
-9.2
-25.6
-22.3
0.0
34.7
-2.1
-0.2
10.2
-4.5
-8.1
-17.6
-8.8
6.9
3.5
-2.2
6.7
4.3
3.8
7.3
0.7
-3.1
-11.6
-12.3
-23.1
8.8
0.6
13.4
-11.9
-4.8
30.9
-7.2
-43.4
2702.3
-27.3
-16.0
-5.5
13.9
12.5
1.0
-3.1
3.7
-12.5
-13.6
2.5
-11.6
-2.6
-2.7
10.9
-5.7
1.2
-5.1
0.3
0.5
4.1
-3.0
2.1
-1.2
1.6
-4.6
2.7
-0.8
-10.2
4.9
-1.9
2.2
1.5
7.6
3.4
-0.1
4.1
0.2
-1.4
-9.1
-2.0
-0.6
-4.7
-1.8
0.0
-0.3
-6.7
-1.1
-0.5
-1.8
-1.1
-1.3
-1.2
-1.3
-1.7
-1.3
-1.3
-0.6
-2.2
-0.7
3.2
-0.1
0.7
0.7
-0.3
0.0
-1.0
-0.7
-2.7
-0.7
-0.1
1.5
1.0
0.2
-0.6
-3.4
-0.8
-0.3
-1.5
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.1
-0.7
-1.4
-0.9
2.0
1.3
1.9
1.4
1.4
0.4
2.5
2.5
2.9
-3.5
-1.7
-0.9
1.8
1.7
0.7
-0.6
-3.6
-0.9
-0.3
-1.6
-1.0
-1.2
-1.0
-1.1
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-1.5
-1.0
1.8
1.4
2.0
1.5
1.4
-0.2
2.5
2.0
2.3
-3.2
-1.9
-0.8
1.9
1.8
0.6
-0.6
-3.7
-0.9
-0.4
-1.7
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.2
-0.9
-1.6
-1.1
1.3
1.1
1.6
1.3
1.3
-0.3
2.6
2.0
2.3
-3.2
-1.8
-0.3
2.4
2.3
0.6
-0.7
-3.7
-1.2
-0.6
-1.9
-1.2
-1.4
-1.3
-1.4
-1.8
-1.4
-1.1
-1.6
-1.1
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
-0.3
2.9
2.2
2.5
-2.2
-1.2
-0.2
2.1
2.0
0.7
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
-0.7
-3.6
-1.3
-0.8
-2.0
-1.4
-1.6
-1.4
-1.6
-2.0
-1.6
-1.3
-1.5
-1.0
0.6
1.0
0.6
0.8
0.8
-0.2
2.5
1.9
2.0
-0.9
-0.6
0.1
2.0
1.8
0.6
-0.6
-3.8
-1.3
-0.8
-2.0
-1.3
-1.6
-1.4
-1.5
-1.9
-1.6
-1.2
-1.5
-1.0
0.3
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.5
-0.1
1.7
1.0
1.2
-0.6
-0.5
0.3
1.2
1.0
0.3
2023-28
avg pa
-0.6
-4.2
-1.6
-1.1
-2.3
-1.6
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-2.2
-1.8
-1.5
-1.5
-1.1
0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.1
0.0
-0.2
1.1
0.5
0.7
-0.5
-0.5
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.0
2028-33
avg pa
-0.6
-4.2
-1.6
-1.1
-2.3
-1.6
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-2.2
-1.8
-1.6
-1.4
-1.0
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.2
1.1
0.5
0.7
-0.5
-0.4
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.0
Summary tables – Greater Manchester
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64)
Residence employment rate (16-64)
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64)
Unemployment rate (15-64)
Output
Total GVA (£2009m)
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
2609.1
1636.7
1715.3
6.5
-3.7
10.2
2634.3
1656.5
1732.3
12.6
-2.9
15.5
2667.3
1682.3
1753.9
18.9
-3.5
22.4
2685.4
1692.8
1765.9
2.7
-4.1
6.8
2701.7
1704.0
1776.9
2.1
-3.8
5.9
2720.9
1714.2
1789.8
2.8
-2.9
5.7
2737.8
1722.0
1801.2
0.0
-3.1
3.1
2753.0
1727.9
1811.5
-1.8
-3.5
1.7
2768.4
1735.1
1821.9
-1.9
-3.7
1.8
2783.1
1743.9
1831.8
-2.4
-4.1
1.6
2796.9
1752.2
1841.1
-3.5
-4.5
1.0
2855.7
1779.3
1880.8
-5.6
-6.8
1.3
2895.6
1760.6
1907.6
-7.9
-9.9
2.0
2916.6
1730.7
1921.3
-10.0
-12.6
2.7
1162.0
143.5
1305.6
1171.2
1144.2
69.9
66.7
27.0
46.6
2.8
2.7
1154.6
144.2
1298.8
1162.6
1126.2
68.0
65.0
36.4
77.6
4.7
4.5
1131.5
146.7
1278.4
1141.1
1127.2
67.0
64.3
13.9
76.7
4.6
4.4
1119.7
138.7
1258.5
1116.9
1122.7
66.3
63.6
-5.8
78.5
4.6
4.4
1122.7
146.8
1269.7
1128.7
1128.2
66.2
63.5
0.4
84.3
4.9
4.7
1125.8
145.8
1271.8
1130.7
1129.1
65.9
63.1
1.6
85.8
5.0
4.8
1135.4
146.6
1282.1
1139.0
1136.9
66.0
63.1
2.1
85.2
4.9
4.7
1145.3
147.6
1293.0
1147.6
1145.1
66.3
63.2
2.5
83.3
4.8
4.6
1155.9
148.6
1304.6
1156.5
1153.8
66.5
63.3
2.6
81.1
4.7
4.4
1167.9
149.5
1317.4
1166.2
1163.5
66.7
63.5
2.7
77.9
4.5
4.3
1179.4
150.3
1329.7
1175.4
1172.6
66.9
63.7
2.8
75.0
4.3
4.1
1213.0
153.3
1366.4
1202.5
1199.4
67.4
63.8
3.2
67.5
3.8
3.6
1227.0
155.1
1382.2
1213.7
1210.1
68.7
63.4
3.6
62.1
3.5
3.3
1243.3
157.5
1400.8
1226.7
1221.6
70.6
63.6
5.0
60.0
3.5
3.1
48285.6
103
45911.5
102
47003.2
103
47198.7
104
47214.2
104
47927.5
104
49218.5
104
50602.3
104
52022.0
104
53520.6
104
55069.0
104
63556.2
104
71925.0
105
80448.7
105
1111.9
1157.7
1124.9
1168.5
1143.1
1172.3
1155.2
1176.6
1166.5
1170.3
1179.1
1182.8
1190.8
1194.6
1202.0
1205.7
1213.2
1216.9
1224.2
1228.0
1234.5
1238.3
1280.0
1283.7
1316.5
1320.3
1344.7
1348.6
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64) pp
Residence employment rate (16-64) pp
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64) pp
Unemployment rate (15-64) pp
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
2023-28
avg pa
2028-33
avg pa
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.7
1.0
0.8
0.6
2.0
-1.4
1.0
1.2
1.0
6.2
0.8
5.3
1.3
1.6
1.2
6.3
-0.6
6.9
0.7
0.6
0.7
-16.3
-0.7
-15.6
0.6
0.7
0.6
-0.5
0.4
-0.9
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.9
-0.2
0.6
0.5
0.6
-2.8
-0.2
-2.6
0.6
0.3
0.6
-1.8
-0.4
-1.4
0.6
0.4
0.6
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.6
-0.3
-0.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
-1.0
-0.4
-0.6
0.4
0.3
0.4
-0.5
-0.5
-0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.3
-0.5
-0.6
0.1
0.2
-0.3
0.2
-0.4
-0.6
0.1
-0.6
2.6
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-1.0
-0.8
0.5
9.6
0.2
0.2
-0.6
0.5
-0.5
-0.7
-1.6
-1.9
-1.7
9.4
66.4
1.8
1.8
-2.0
1.8
-1.6
-1.8
0.1
-1.0
-0.7
-22.5
-1.1
-0.1
-0.1
-1.0
-5.5
-1.6
-2.1
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-19.7
2.3
0.1
0.1
0.3
5.9
0.9
1.1
0.5
-0.1
-0.1
6.2
7.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.7
0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.3
-0.4
1.2
1.8
0.1
0.1
0.9
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.5
-0.7
-0.1
-0.1
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.3
-2.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.9
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.2
-2.7
-0.1
-0.2
1.0
0.6
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.1
-3.9
-0.2
-0.2
1.0
0.6
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.0
-3.8
-0.2
-0.2
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
2.6
-2.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
-0.1
2.9
-1.6
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
6.1
-0.8
0.0
0.0
-1.7
-0.6
-4.9
-0.2
2.4
0.7
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.4
1.5
0.0
2.7
0.0
2.8
0.0
2.8
0.0
2.9
0.0
2.9
0.0
2.9
0.0
2.6
0.0
2.3
0.1
1.9
1.2
1.2
0.9
1.6
0.3
1.1
0.4
1.0
-0.5
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Greater Manchester (continued)
Table 3: Total Employment by sector
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
4.1
Mining & quarrying
0.2
Manufacturing, of which:
120.8
Food products, beverages & tobacco
20.9
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
10.7
Wood, paper products & printing
12.8
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
8.8
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products15.1
Basic metals & metal products
14.5
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
11.4
Machinery & transport equipment
14.8
Other Manufacturing & repair
11.8
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
0.9
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
6.7
Construction
108.0
Wholesale & retail trade
211.4
Transportation & storage
75.9
Accommodation & food service activities
69.5
Information & communication
36.9
Financial & insurance activities
51.6
Real estate activities
19.7
Professional, scientific & technical activities
94.6
Administrative & support service activities
115.2
Public administration & defence
62.2
Education
107.5
Human health & social work activities
156.8
Arts, entertainment & recreation
27.0
Other service activities
36.6
Total
1305.6
3.8
0.2
118.7
20.1
10.5
12.0
9.9
12.1
15.1
8.3
14.7
16.1
6.4
5.4
98.5
206.1
68.2
72.7
37.4
49.2
21.4
93.7
113.3
66.1
109.6
161.8
32.1
34.4
1298.8
4.1
0.2
106.5
20.0
10.2
10.4
9.2
11.3
12.9
7.5
11.4
13.4
7.2
6.1
86.7
202.5
67.9
71.9
32.9
48.1
18.5
101.8
116.1
65.3
106.3
169.3
32.5
34.5
1278.4
3.9
0.2
104.8
17.8
10.8
13.5
9.2
10.0
12.8
8.9
12.5
9.3
7.6
6.4
73.6
202.7
64.9
79.0
34.0
47.9
19.1
102.7
114.2
60.2
108.0
164.2
30.2
34.9
1258.5
4.0
0.2
105.1
17.9
11.3
13.1
9.4
9.9
13.0
8.5
12.9
9.2
6.8
6.7
75.1
204.8
66.6
83.5
35.1
48.6
19.9
108.8
117.6
54.9
106.2
164.0
28.6
33.1
1269.7
4.0
0.2
103.8
17.8
11.1
13.0
9.3
9.8
12.8
8.3
12.7
9.1
6.8
6.5
75.1
207.0
66.9
84.3
35.5
48.7
19.8
109.1
117.6
53.6
105.9
164.2
29.1
33.5
1271.8
3.9
0.2
102.9
17.7
10.9
12.8
9.2
9.7
12.7
8.2
12.6
9.0
6.7
6.5
76.5
210.1
68.3
85.8
36.1
49.2
20.3
112.0
120.4
51.9
104.5
163.1
29.7
34.1
1282.1
3.9
0.2
101.9
17.7
10.7
12.7
9.1
9.6
12.6
8.1
12.4
8.9
6.6
6.4
78.0
213.4
69.8
87.3
36.8
49.3
20.7
114.8
123.1
50.5
103.0
162.1
30.4
34.8
1293.0
3.9
0.2
100.8
17.6
10.6
12.6
9.0
9.5
12.4
8.0
12.3
8.9
6.5
6.3
79.2
216.2
71.1
88.8
37.4
49.4
21.2
117.9
126.2
49.1
101.7
162.0
31.2
35.6
1304.6
3.8
0.2
99.5
17.5
10.4
12.5
8.9
9.4
12.3
7.8
12.1
8.8
6.5
6.2
80.5
219.1
72.0
90.0
37.9
49.5
21.8
121.4
129.7
48.2
100.9
162.0
31.9
36.3
1317.4
3.8
0.2
98.1
17.4
10.2
12.3
8.7
9.2
12.1
7.7
11.9
8.7
6.4
6.1
81.3
221.7
72.7
91.1
38.3
49.7
22.3
124.6
132.7
47.9
100.8
162.5
32.6
37.1
1329.7
3.7
0.1
91.3
16.7
9.2
11.5
8.1
8.6
11.2
7.0
11.0
8.2
6.0
5.7
83.9
229.0
73.5
94.3
39.7
50.6
23.7
134.5
141.3
47.6
100.7
167.4
34.6
38.7
1366.4
3.5
0.1
83.8
15.8
8.2
10.6
7.4
7.9
10.2
6.2
10.0
7.5
5.6
5.3
86.3
230.1
73.0
95.5
40.4
51.3
24.8
142.3
147.5
46.9
100.0
170.5
35.8
39.5
1382.2
3.4
0.1
77.2
15.0
7.3
9.8
6.7
7.3
9.4
5.6
9.2
7.0
5.3
4.9
89.0
230.8
72.7
96.5
41.1
52.2
26.0
150.7
154.1
46.3
99.4
173.8
37.1
40.3
1400.8
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
3.1
Mining & quarrying
-29.5
Manufacturing, of which:
-7.8
Food products, beverages & tobacco
-4.9
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
-12.9
Wood, paper products & printing
-8.0
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
-9.3
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products-1.0
Basic metals & metal products
-5.6
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
-6.3
Machinery & transport equipment
-15.3
Other Manufacturing & repair
-8.7
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
-21.5
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
12.5
Construction
2.7
Wholesale & retail trade
-2.8
Transportation & storage
-1.4
Accommodation & food service activities
2.4
Information & communication
-10.7
Financial & insurance activities
7.6
Real estate activities
4.2
Professional, scientific & technical activities
1.2
Administrative & support service activities
5.2
Public administration & defence
-6.1
Education
-0.8
Human health & social work activities
3.1
Arts, entertainment & recreation
-2.7
Other service activities
8.5
Total
-0.3
-7.4
19.9
-1.7
-3.7
-2.1
-6.3
11.5
-19.8
3.9
-27.4
-0.3
36.4
620.2
-19.2
-8.9
-2.5
-10.1
4.6
1.4
-4.7
8.5
-1.0
-1.7
6.3
2.0
3.2
18.8
-5.9
-0.5
7.2
-18.4
-10.3
-0.6
-2.4
-13.2
-6.2
-6.2
-14.7
-9.1
-22.4
-16.8
12.6
14.0
-11.9
-1.7
-0.4
-1.1
-12.0
-2.3
-13.8
8.7
2.5
-1.2
-3.0
4.7
1.4
0.1
-1.6
-3.0
23.1
-1.6
-11.0
5.9
29.6
-0.1
-11.8
-0.8
18.0
9.6
-31.0
5.6
4.5
-15.1
0.1
-4.4
9.8
3.5
-0.3
3.2
0.9
-1.6
-7.7
1.7
-3.1
-7.3
1.3
-1.6
1.1
-4.2
0.3
0.5
4.2
-3.0
2.1
-1.2
1.6
-4.6
2.8
-0.8
-9.7
4.5
2.0
1.1
2.6
5.7
3.2
1.5
4.1
6.0
3.0
-8.9
-1.6
-0.1
-5.1
-5.2
0.9
-0.5
-5.8
-1.2
-0.5
-1.7
-1.1
-1.3
-1.1
-1.2
-1.7
-1.3
-1.2
-0.4
-2.6
0.1
1.1
0.5
1.0
1.1
0.2
-0.2
0.3
-0.1
-2.3
-0.3
0.1
1.8
1.2
0.2
-0.8
-2.5
-0.9
-0.3
-1.5
-0.8
-1.1
-0.9
-1.0
-1.5
-1.1
-0.7
-1.2
-1.3
1.8
1.5
2.1
1.7
1.7
0.9
2.3
2.7
2.4
-3.1
-1.3
-0.7
2.1
1.8
0.8
-0.8
-2.6
-1.0
-0.3
-1.6
-0.9
-1.2
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.1
-0.8
-1.3
-1.4
2.0
1.6
2.2
1.8
1.8
0.3
2.3
2.5
2.3
-2.8
-1.5
-0.6
2.2
1.9
0.8
-0.8
-2.7
-1.1
-0.4
-1.6
-1.0
-1.2
-1.0
-1.1
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-1.4
-1.5
1.6
1.3
1.8
1.6
1.7
0.2
2.4
2.7
2.5
-2.8
-1.3
0.0
2.6
2.4
0.9
-0.9
-2.7
-1.3
-0.6
-1.8
-1.2
-1.4
-1.3
-1.4
-1.8
-1.4
-1.0
-1.4
-1.5
1.5
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
0.2
2.7
2.9
2.8
-1.8
-0.7
0.0
2.4
2.1
1.0
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 4: Total Employment by sector - annual percentage changes
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
-0.8
-2.6
-1.4
-0.8
-2.0
-1.3
-1.6
-1.4
-1.5
-2.0
-1.6
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
1.0
1.2
0.9
1.2
1.1
0.3
2.3
2.6
2.4
-0.5
-0.2
0.3
2.2
2.0
0.9
-0.8
-2.9
-1.4
-0.8
-2.0
-1.3
-1.5
-1.4
-1.5
-1.9
-1.5
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.8
0.8
0.4
1.5
1.8
1.5
-0.2
0.0
0.6
1.5
1.2
0.7
2023-28
avg pa
-0.8
-3.3
-1.7
-1.1
-2.3
-1.6
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-2.2
-1.8
-1.5
-1.3
-1.4
0.6
0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.9
1.2
0.9
-0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.3
2028-33
avg pa
-0.8
-3.2
-1.7
-1.1
-2.3
-1.6
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-2.2
-1.8
-1.5
-1.2
-1.4
0.6
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.9
1.1
0.8
-0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.2
Summary tables – North West
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64)
Residence employment rate (16-64)
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64)
Unemployment rate (15-64)
Output
Total GVA (£2009m)
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
6939.4
4267.6
4489.6
1.6
-5.6
7.2
6972.8
4294.5
4507.4
14.3
-6.1
20.5
7020.5
4330.2
4532.9
26.7
-4.4
31.1
7056.0
4358.6
4556.1
11.1
-6.2
17.3
7087.8
4379.3
4577.0
9.7
-5.1
14.8
7123.7
4398.6
4600.7
9.2
-4.9
14.1
7154.3
4411.6
4620.9
2.5
-5.2
7.7
7180.7
4421.0
4638.5
-1.9
-6.5
4.6
7207.8
4433.7
4656.5
-1.4
-6.8
5.4
7234.5
4452.8
4674.3
-1.4
-6.9
5.4
7259.5
4469.4
4690.8
-2.7
-7.1
4.4
7371.8
4519.5
4765.3
-3.1
-7.9
4.8
7457.7
4461.3
4821.9
-3.1
-8.7
5.6
7518.2
4407.0
4861.3
-3.0
-9.0
6.1
3004.1
399.3
3405.5
3022.1
3030.9
71.0
67.5
-8.9
119.7
2.8
2.7
2982.1
407.4
3391.6
3002.3
2983.7
69.5
66.2
18.6
191.8
4.5
4.3
2928.7
419.1
3349.8
2965.9
2982.6
68.9
65.8
-16.7
184.1
4.3
4.1
2908.4
402.0
3312.4
2924.8
2989.5
68.6
65.6
-64.8
189.8
4.4
4.2
2903.7
424.7
3330.4
2946.1
2998.6
68.5
65.5
-52.4
203.2
4.6
4.4
2904.1
421.2
3327.3
2942.9
2995.4
68.1
65.1
-52.5
206.3
4.7
4.5
2919.9
422.1
3344.0
2958.1
3010.0
68.2
65.1
-52.0
204.3
4.6
4.4
2936.6
423.5
3362.1
2974.3
3025.7
68.4
65.2
-51.3
199.1
4.5
4.3
2955.0
424.9
3382.0
2992.0
3042.6
68.6
65.3
-50.6
193.2
4.4
4.1
2977.0
425.9
3404.9
3012.3
3062.1
68.8
65.5
-49.8
185.2
4.2
4.0
2998.1
426.9
3427.0
3031.6
3080.6
68.9
65.7
-49.0
177.8
4.0
3.8
3052.7
429.9
3484.7
3081.0
3127.9
69.2
65.6
-46.9
158.6
3.5
3.3
3065.5
430.9
3498.3
3091.8
3137.7
70.3
65.1
-45.8
145.1
3.3
3.0
3092.0
433.9
3527.9
3116.9
3161.5
71.7
65.0
-44.5
139.7
3.2
2.9
122755.8 117027.5 119428.7 119799.0 118912.7 120381.5 123244.2 126295.7 129418.7 132720.8 136137.5 155187.4 173989.9 193145.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2962.8
3111.3
2985.1
3132.5
3018.1
3141.7
3046.5
3150.3
3073.7
3123.1
3102.6
3152.3
3129.6
3179.6
3154.9
3205.2
3180.7
3231.3
3206.3
3257.2
3230.0
3281.2
3337.0
3389.5
3428.3
3481.9
3506.4
3561.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.3
0.4
0.3
-5.5
-1.9
-3.6
0.5
0.6
0.4
12.8
-0.5
13.3
0.7
0.8
0.6
12.4
1.7
10.7
0.5
0.7
0.5
-15.6
-1.8
-13.8
0.5
0.5
0.5
-1.4
1.1
-2.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
-0.5
0.3
-0.7
0.4
0.3
0.4
-6.7
-0.3
-6.4
0.4
0.2
0.4
-4.4
-1.3
-3.1
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.5
-0.3
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
-1.2
-0.2
-1.0
0.3
0.2
0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.1
-1.1
2.8
-0.7
-1.0
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
-22.3
8.7
0.2
0.2
-0.7
2.0
-0.4
-0.7
-1.6
-1.5
-1.3
27.5
60.2
1.7
1.6
-1.8
2.9
-1.2
-1.2
0.0
-0.6
-0.4
-35.3
-4.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
-4.1
-1.1
-1.4
0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-48.1
3.1
0.1
0.1
-0.2
5.6
0.5
0.7
0.3
-0.1
-0.1
12.3
7.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
-0.8
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-0.4
-0.1
1.5
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.5
-1.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.6
-2.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.7
-3.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.7
0.2
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.8
-4.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.7
0.2
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.8
-4.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
-1.0
-2.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.5
-1.7
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.0
-0.5
-0.9
0.0
0.0
-1.4
0.0
-4.7
0.0
2.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.7
0.0
1.2
0.0
2.4
0.0
2.5
0.0
2.5
0.0
2.6
0.0
2.6
0.0
2.6
0.0
2.4
0.0
2.1
0.0
1.4
0.9
0.7
0.7
1.1
0.3
0.9
0.3
0.9
-0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64) pp
Residence employment rate (16-64) pp
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64) pp
Unemployment rate (15-64) pp
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2018-23
2018 avg pa
2023-28
avg pa
2028-33
avg pa
Note: Total employees© represents
the2012
number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also
represents
theunless
number
of jobs
Oxford Economics
* percentage
changes
otherwise
noted in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – North West (continued)
Table 3: Total Employment by sector
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
36.8
Mining & quarrying
1.7
Manufacturing, of which:
353.9
Food products, beverages & tobacco
54.0
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
24.1
Wood, paper products & printing
32.7
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
31.5
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products39.5
Basic metals & metal products
53.3
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
21.7
Machinery & transport equipment
64.7
Other Manufacturing & repair
32.4
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
4.8
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
19.8
Construction
264.8
Wholesale & retail trade
547.2
Transportation & storage
175.7
Accommodation & food service activities
212.5
Information & communication
89.5
Financial & insurance activities
111.7
Real estate activities
48.0
Professional, scientific & technical activities
208.4
Administrative & support service activities
256.5
Public administration & defence
175.6
Education
278.1
Human health & social work activities
442.4
Arts, entertainment & recreation
83.4
Other service activities
94.6
Total
3405.5
34.3
1.7
357.9
51.2
22.7
32.4
34.5
33.2
54.7
16.8
68.0
44.4
10.7
16.1
254.6
532.0
163.1
216.5
87.4
112.3
51.8
214.6
232.2
184.4
281.4
456.8
94.7
89.0
3391.6
36.8
1.5
323.4
52.3
20.8
27.7
29.8
32.5
48.2
16.9
58.8
36.3
12.1
18.8
227.0
528.8
163.2
206.9
77.9
104.0
41.9
232.4
252.6
183.5
277.0
481.0
87.5
93.3
3349.8
35.6
1.6
308.5
47.6
21.9
35.8
31.3
29.8
43.2
20.3
54.5
24.1
13.8
20.4
208.2
535.4
156.9
227.8
78.9
100.2
44.0
233.2
254.3
177.3
271.1
468.0
82.7
94.4
3312.4
35.8
1.5
310.2
47.9
22.8
34.8
32.0
29.5
43.9
19.4
56.1
24.0
12.5
21.4
213.5
541.0
160.8
237.8
81.2
101.4
45.6
246.5
262.5
157.9
266.2
466.7
78.4
89.5
3330.4
35.5
1.4
306.9
47.7
22.4
34.4
31.6
29.1
43.4
19.1
55.4
23.7
12.4
20.8
213.4
545.3
161.4
239.3
82.0
101.4
45.5
245.9
261.5
153.9
264.8
466.2
79.5
90.4
3327.3
35.1
1.4
304.3
47.6
22.1
34.2
31.3
28.9
43.0
18.8
54.8
23.5
12.3
20.5
217.0
552.2
164.5
242.5
83.3
102.2
46.4
251.3
267.0
148.9
260.7
462.0
80.8
91.8
3344.0
34.6
1.3
301.5
47.5
21.7
33.9
31.0
28.6
42.6
18.5
54.3
23.4
12.1
20.2
220.7
559.7
168.0
246.2
84.7
102.3
47.4
256.5
272.2
144.4
256.3
458.2
82.2
93.5
3362.1
34.2
1.3
298.6
47.4
21.4
33.6
30.6
28.4
42.1
18.3
53.7
23.2
11.9
19.9
223.6
566.0
170.8
249.3
86.0
102.3
48.4
262.2
277.9
140.2
252.5
457.1
84.1
95.5
3382.0
33.8
1.2
295.1
47.1
21.0
33.2
30.2
28.0
41.6
18.0
53.0
23.0
11.8
19.6
226.4
572.5
173.0
252.2
87.1
102.4
49.6
268.6
284.6
137.5
250.2
456.3
85.7
97.4
3404.9
33.4
1.2
291.2
46.8
20.6
32.8
29.8
27.7
41.0
17.6
52.2
22.7
11.6
19.3
228.0
578.3
174.3
254.4
88.0
102.5
50.7
274.4
290.3
136.6
249.3
457.0
87.4
99.2
3427.0
31.7
1.0
272.3
45.2
18.7
30.8
27.6
25.9
38.2
16.0
48.5
21.4
10.9
18.0
233.0
593.7
175.9
260.4
90.6
103.6
53.3
290.5
304.7
134.9
247.7
468.0
91.3
103.3
3484.7
30.0
0.8
251.1
43.0
16.7
28.5
25.3
23.9
35.1
14.4
44.4
19.9
10.2
16.7
237.4
594.9
174.4
261.8
91.5
104.2
55.2
302.6
314.4
133.0
245.7
475.9
93.4
105.3
3498.3
28.5
0.7
232.3
41.0
14.9
26.5
23.2
22.1
32.4
12.9
40.8
18.5
9.5
15.6
243.2
596.9
173.5
263.7
92.7
105.1
57.3
316.3
325.5
131.8
244.8
486.5
96.1
107.8
3527.9
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
3.2
Mining & quarrying
-26.4
Manufacturing, of which:
-7.6
Food products, beverages & tobacco
-6.0
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
-8.2
Wood, paper products & printing
-10.3
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
-6.7
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products-2.8
Basic metals & metal products
-5.5
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
-6.1
Machinery & transport equipment
-10.9
Other Manufacturing & repair
-10.5
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
-5.0
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
-2.1
Construction
4.2
Wholesale & retail trade
-1.8
Transportation & storage
1.8
Accommodation & food service activities
-1.5
Information & communication
-7.6
Financial & insurance activities
4.5
Real estate activities
5.5
Professional, scientific & technical activities
-1.1
Administrative & support service activities
1.8
Public administration & defence
-6.0
Education
-1.4
Human health & social work activities
2.6
Arts, entertainment & recreation
-2.1
Other service activities
11.1
Total
-0.7
-6.8
-3.8
1.1
-5.1
-5.8
-0.8
9.5
-15.9
2.5
-22.5
5.1
37.0
120.2
-18.6
-3.9
-2.8
-7.1
1.9
-2.4
0.6
8.1
3.0
-9.5
5.0
1.2
3.3
13.5
-5.9
-0.4
7.4
-6.3
-9.6
2.1
-8.7
-14.4
-13.5
-2.3
-11.8
0.5
-13.4
-18.2
13.7
16.7
-10.8
-0.6
0.1
-4.4
-10.9
-7.4
-19.3
8.3
8.8
-0.5
-1.6
5.3
-7.6
4.8
-1.2
-3.3
0.7
-4.6
-9.0
5.4
29.2
4.9
-8.2
-10.5
20.1
-7.4
-33.5
13.9
8.7
-8.3
1.2
-3.9
10.1
1.3
-3.6
5.0
0.3
0.7
-3.4
-2.1
-2.7
-5.5
1.2
-1.1
0.4
-4.5
0.6
0.6
4.2
-2.9
2.2
-1.1
1.7
-4.5
2.9
-0.7
-9.8
4.5
2.6
1.0
2.5
4.4
3.0
1.1
3.8
5.7
3.2
-10.9
-1.8
-0.3
-5.2
-5.2
0.5
-0.9
-6.1
-1.1
-0.4
-1.7
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
-1.1
-1.6
-1.2
-1.2
-0.5
-2.6
-0.1
0.8
0.4
0.6
1.0
0.1
-0.4
-0.2
-0.4
-2.5
-0.5
-0.1
1.3
1.0
-0.1
-1.2
-2.9
-0.8
-0.2
-1.5
-0.8
-1.0
-0.8
-0.9
-1.4
-1.0
-0.6
-1.2
-1.3
1.7
1.3
1.9
1.4
1.6
0.7
2.1
2.2
2.1
-3.3
-1.5
-0.9
1.6
1.6
0.5
-1.2
-3.0
-0.9
-0.2
-1.5
-0.9
-1.1
-0.9
-1.0
-1.5
-1.1
-0.7
-1.3
-1.5
1.7
1.4
2.1
1.5
1.6
0.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
-3.0
-1.7
-0.8
1.8
1.8
0.5
-1.2
-3.1
-1.0
-0.3
-1.6
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
-1.1
-0.8
-1.4
-1.6
1.3
1.1
1.7
1.3
1.6
0.0
2.2
2.2
2.1
-2.9
-1.5
-0.2
2.2
2.2
0.6
-1.2
-3.1
-1.2
-0.5
-1.8
-1.1
-1.3
-1.2
-1.2
-1.7
-1.3
-1.0
-1.4
-1.5
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.1
1.3
0.0
2.5
2.5
2.4
-2.0
-0.9
-0.2
2.0
2.0
0.7
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 4: Total Employment by sector - annual percentage changes
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
-1.2
-3.0
-1.3
-0.7
-1.9
-1.3
-1.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.9
-1.5
-1.2
-1.3
-1.5
0.7
1.0
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.1
2.1
2.2
2.0
-0.6
-0.3
0.2
1.9
1.9
0.6
-1.1
-3.2
-1.3
-0.7
-1.9
-1.2
-1.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.8
-1.4
-1.1
-1.3
-1.4
0.5
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.2
1.3
1.4
1.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.4
1.2
1.1
0.4
2023-28
avg pa
-1.1
-3.6
-1.6
-1.0
-2.2
-1.5
-1.7
-1.6
-1.6
-2.1
-1.7
-1.4
-1.3
-1.5
0.4
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.7
0.9
0.7
-0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.1
2028-33
avg pa
-1.0
-3.6
-1.6
-1.0
-2.2
-1.5
-1.7
-1.6
-1.6
-2.1
-1.7
-1.5
-1.3
-1.4
0.5
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.7
0.9
0.7
-0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.1
Summary tables - UK
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64)
Residence employment rate (16-64)
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64)
Unemployment rate (15-64)
Output
Total GVA (£2009m)
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
61731.7
38196.5
62175.9
38486.5
62696.8
38830.2
63221.5
39187.1
63681.7
39499.9
64146.1
39776.1
64569.0
40018.5
64983.9
40251.9
65392.2
40504.0
65795.4
40800.5
66192.9
41090.3
68099.5
42206.1
69783.6
42534.1
71255.8
42661.4
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
245.2
0.0
245.2
227.0
0.0
227.0
275.4
0.0
275.4
242.9
0.0
242.9
215.0
0.0
215.0
182.5
0.0
182.5
134.5
0.0
134.5
126.5
0.0
126.5
121.5
0.0
121.5
120.0
0.0
120.0
120.0
0.0
120.0
120.0
0.0
120.0
120.0
0.0
120.0
120.0
0.0
120.0
27656.5
4166.3
31990.0
27852.9
27952.4
73.2
906.1
2.8
27087.0
4206.0
31463.5
27317.2
27466.5
71.4
1528.3
4.6
26781.8
4341.3
31292.3
27169.4
27338.9
70.4
1497.1
4.6
26769.0
4417.5
31351.8
27133.7
27318.3
69.7
1531.9
4.7
27098.2
4584.8
31846.0
27627.1
27711.5
70.2
1608.4
4.8
27134.3
4563.8
31861.1
27636.5
27720.9
69.7
1647.1
4.9
27334.7
4582.9
32080.6
27828.8
27913.2
69.8
1641.1
4.9
27552.5
4609.0
32324.4
28041.0
28125.4
69.9
1604.1
4.7
27789.5
4637.1
32589.6
28270.1
28354.5
70.0
1561.6
4.6
28060.9
4660.7
32884.6
28523.4
28607.8
70.1
1497.9
4.4
28323.7
4683.5
33170.3
28766.6
28851.0
70.2
1439.8
4.2
29095.5
4766.1
34024.7
29486.8
29571.2
70.1
1327.8
3.8
29457.5
4821.2
34441.7
29832.3
29916.7
70.3
1303.9
3.6
29962.6
4902.2
35027.8
30326.8
30411.2
71.3
1316.2
3.6
-
1292928
1239361
1261248
1278328
1277909
1294870
1329051
1366337
1404901
1445748
1487819
1716366
1943651
2179733
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2023-28
avg pa
2028-33
avg pa
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population: 15-59/64
Working age population: 15-64
Total migration
Domestic migration
International migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (16-59/64) pp
Residence employment rate (16-64) pp
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (15-59/64) pp
Unemployment rate (15-64) pp
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0.8
0.8
0.0
-13.8
0.0
-13.8
0.7
0.8
0.0
-18.2
0.0
-18.2
0.8
0.9
0.0
48.3
0.0
48.3
0.8
0.9
0.0
-32.4
0.0
-32.4
0.7
0.8
0.0
-27.9
0.0
-27.9
0.7
0.7
0.0
-32.5
0.0
-32.5
0.7
0.6
0.0
-48.0
0.0
-48.0
0.6
0.6
0.0
-8.0
0.0
-8.0
0.6
0.6
0.0
-5.0
0.0
-5.0
0.6
0.7
0.0
-1.5
0.0
-1.5
0.6
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.5
-0.2
4.8
0.1
-
-2.1
1.0
-1.6
-1.9
-1.7
-1.8
68.7
1.9
-
-1.1
3.2
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-2.0
-0.1
-
0.0
1.8
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.7
2.3
0.1
-
1.2
3.8
1.6
1.8
1.4
0.4
5.0
0.1
-
0.1
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
2.4
0.1
-
0.7
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.1
-0.4
0.0
-
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.1
-2.3
-0.1
-
0.9
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.1
-2.6
-0.2
-
1.0
0.5
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.1
-4.1
-0.2
-
0.9
0.5
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.1
-3.9
-0.2
-
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.0
-2.0
-0.1
-
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.0
-
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-
-0.7
-
-4.1
-
1.8
-
1.4
-
0.0
-
1.3
-
2.6
-
2.8
-
2.8
-
2.9
-
2.9
-
2.9
-
2.6
-
2.3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – UK (continued)
Table 3: Total Employment by sector
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2028
2033
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
432.2
Mining & quarrying
62.5
Manufacturing, of which:
2851.2
Food products, beverages & tobacco
419.8
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
143.4
Wood, paper products & printing
303.5
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals 171.3
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products
299.4
Basic metals & metal products
438.7
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
249.0
Machinery & transport equipment
516.4
Other Manufacturing & repair
309.8
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
84.7
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
166.4
Construction
2385.5
Wholesale & retail trade
5034.5
Transportation & storage
1532.1
Accommodation & food service activities
2031.4
Information & communication
1175.5
Financial & insurance activities
1185.7
Real estate activities
445.9
Professional, scientific & technical activities
2252.5
Administrative & support service activities
2512.1
Public administration & defence
1714.2
Education
2585.2
Human health & social work activities
3774.1
Arts, entertainment & recreation
882.4
Other service activities
882.0
Total
31990.0
420.8
61.6
2692.4
406.7
137.4
272.8
157.4
268.6
419.5
215.7
472.4
341.9
109.5
163.3
2314.6
4867.2
1511.4
1974.3
1155.7
1142.4
454.3
2276.1
2321.5
1740.6
2640.8
3904.9
854.5
857.5
31463.5
437.5
60.0
2621.1
409.1
140.7
281.3
157.3
251.5
381.1
215.0
455.3
329.8
121.6
172.8
2166.8
4810.7
1463.1
1958.0
1127.8
1099.8
434.2
2302.6
2372.1
1719.0
2669.7
4015.3
880.5
859.8
31292.3
426.0
59.5
2590.6
403.7
144.0
288.8
156.7
239.9
362.1
227.7
459.8
307.9
129.6
186.7
2129.3
4812.0
1475.8
2018.9
1176.3
1098.4
409.3
2359.2
2420.4
1621.9
2614.0
4024.3
895.3
904.5
31351.8
433.7
62.1
2640.0
410.0
152.2
284.8
162.8
240.5
375.6
220.5
480.2
313.5
122.9
193.9
2117.1
4883.6
1519.4
2140.4
1225.1
1110.4
428.5
2478.2
2516.3
1565.1
2584.2
4013.7
907.3
904.0
31846.0
430.6
58.4
2612.3
408.4
149.7
281.8
161.0
237.8
371.3
217.7
474.5
310.1
122.5
189.3
2135.0
4897.2
1529.8
2142.5
1237.4
1110.5
431.9
2502.0
2534.6
1527.9
2568.7
4003.9
916.0
910.7
31861.1
426.3
56.8
2591.5
407.7
147.6
279.4
159.5
235.6
368.0
215.4
470.0
308.3
121.2
187.2
2175.8
4962.9
1560.6
2172.5
1257.8
1117.7
441.8
2561.6
2592.4
1485.9
2534.9
3974.8
933.1
925.8
32080.6
422.0
55.2
2568.9
406.6
145.4
276.9
158.0
233.3
364.3
212.9
465.1
306.4
119.7
184.9
2218.3
5036.1
1596.1
2207.5
1278.8
1118.9
451.9
2620.8
2649.7
1449.3
2499.6
3951.2
952.5
942.9
32324.4
417.7
53.6
2545.3
405.3
143.1
274.3
156.3
230.9
360.6
210.4
460.1
304.3
118.1
182.4
2254.3
5099.4
1625.3
2238.7
1299.3
1118.3
463.0
2687.7
2712.9
1414.5
2468.2
3949.1
976.9
965.0
32589.6
413.3
52.0
2516.5
403.2
140.6
271.1
154.4
228.0
356.1
207.4
454.2
301.6
116.5
180.0
2288.7
5164.8
1648.3
2267.3
1316.6
1117.8
475.8
2762.6
2786.1
1392.7
2451.6
3949.4
999.4
985.1
32884.6
408.9
50.6
2484.3
400.4
137.9
267.5
152.2
224.8
351.2
204.2
447.6
298.5
115.1
177.8
2311.9
5223.4
1663.5
2290.0
1330.1
1118.5
487.0
2831.8
2850.2
1388.0
2449.8
3963.8
1021.2
1004.5
33170.3
388.9
43.1
2329.8
386.6
125.2
250.5
142.0
209.6
327.5
188.8
416.4
283.2
108.3
167.3
2393.5
5381.8
1689.0
2351.3
1372.0
1127.0
518.1
3039.1
3028.3
1389.9
2467.1
4101.3
1079.0
1049.8
34024.7
369.8
36.3
2154.7
367.6
112.1
231.2
130.6
192.7
301.2
172.2
382.0
265.0
101.9
157.5
2469.4
5409.0
1684.2
2370.4
1388.1
1130.6
541.2
3201.7
3158.3
1388.2
2478.9
4212.8
1115.2
1073.5
34441.7
353.4
30.7
1998.1
350.0
100.6
214.1
120.5
177.7
277.8
157.5
351.5
248.5
96.3
148.8
2560.4
5446.8
1685.5
2395.0
1408.7
1137.4
567.3
3385.4
3305.9
1393.5
2503.2
4349.8
1158.5
1103.1
35027.8
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
2.5
Mining & quarrying
-3.9
Manufacturing, of which:
-4.6
Food products, beverages & tobacco
-4.3
Textiles, wearing apparel & leather products
-9.4
Wood, paper products & printing
-8.5
Refined Petroleum, Chemical & Pharmaceuticals
-7.5
Rubber, plastic & other non-metallic mineral products-5.9
Basic metals & metal products
0.0
Computer, electronics & electricial equipment
-8.8
Machinery & transport equipment
-4.0
Other Manufacturing & repair
0.8
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
0.7
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
6.3
Construction
0.0
Wholesale & retail trade
0.3
Transportation & storage
0.4
Accommodation & food service activities
0.7
Information & communication
0.0
Financial & insurance activities
1.9
Real estate activities
7.0
Professional, scientific & technical activities
2.5
Administrative & support service activities
0.6
Public administration & defence
-1.9
Education
1.1
Human health & social work activities
2.5
Arts, entertainment & recreation
2.9
Other service activities
-2.2
Total
0.4
-2.6
-1.5
-5.6
-3.1
-4.2
-10.1
-8.1
-10.3
-4.4
-13.4
-8.5
10.4
29.3
-1.8
-3.0
-3.3
-1.4
-2.8
-1.7
-3.7
1.9
1.0
-7.6
1.5
2.2
3.5
-3.2
-2.8
-1.6
4.0
-2.7
-2.6
0.6
2.4
3.1
-0.1
-6.4
-9.2
-0.3
-3.6
-3.6
11.0
5.8
-6.4
-1.2
-3.2
-0.8
-2.4
-3.7
-4.4
1.2
2.2
-1.2
1.1
2.8
3.0
0.3
-0.5
-2.6
-0.8
-1.2
-1.3
2.4
2.6
-0.4
-4.6
-5.0
5.9
1.0
-6.6
6.5
8.0
-1.7
0.0
0.9
3.1
4.3
-0.1
-5.7
2.5
2.0
-5.7
-2.1
0.2
1.7
5.2
0.2
1.8
4.4
1.9
1.5
5.7
-1.4
3.9
0.3
3.7
-3.1
4.4
1.8
-5.1
3.9
-0.6
1.5
3.0
6.0
4.2
1.1
4.7
5.0
4.0
-3.5
-1.1
-0.3
1.3
-0.1
1.6
-0.7
-6.0
-1.0
-0.4
-1.6
-1.0
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-0.3
-2.4
0.8
0.3
0.7
0.1
1.0
0.0
0.8
1.0
0.7
-2.4
-0.6
-0.2
1.0
0.7
0.0
-1.0
-2.7
-0.8
-0.2
-1.4
-0.8
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
-0.6
-1.1
-1.1
1.9
1.3
2.0
1.4
1.6
0.6
2.3
2.4
2.3
-2.7
-1.3
-0.7
1.9
1.6
0.7
-1.0
-2.8
-0.9
-0.3
-1.5
-0.9
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.1
-1.0
-0.6
-1.2
-1.2
2.0
1.5
2.3
1.6
1.7
0.1
2.3
2.3
2.2
-2.5
-1.4
-0.6
2.1
1.9
0.8
-1.0
-2.9
-0.9
-0.3
-1.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
-0.7
-1.3
-1.3
1.6
1.3
1.8
1.4
1.6
-0.1
2.5
2.6
2.4
-2.4
-1.3
-0.1
2.6
2.3
0.8
-1.1
-2.9
-1.1
-0.5
-1.8
-1.2
-1.2
-1.2
-1.2
-1.4
-1.3
-0.9
-1.3
-1.3
1.5
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.3
0.0
2.8
2.8
2.7
-1.5
-0.7
0.0
2.3
2.1
0.9
© Oxford Economics 2012
Table 4: Total Employment by sector - annual percentage changes
© Oxford Economics 2012
2018-23
2018 avg pa
-1.1
-2.8
-1.3
-0.7
-1.9
-1.3
-1.4
-1.4
-1.4
-1.6
-1.4
-1.0
-1.2
-1.2
1.0
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.0
0.1
2.4
2.5
2.3
-0.3
-0.1
0.4
2.2
2.0
0.9
-1.0
-3.0
-1.3
-0.7
-1.9
-1.3
-1.4
-1.4
-1.4
-1.5
-1.4
-1.0
-1.2
-1.2
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.1
1.5
1.7
1.5
0.0
0.1
0.6
1.4
1.2
0.6
2023-28
avg pa
-1.0
-3.4
-1.5
-1.0
-2.2
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.8
-1.7
-1.3
-1.2
-1.2
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.9
1.1
0.9
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.7
0.5
0.3
2028-33
avg pa
-0.9
-3.3
-1.5
-1.0
-2.2
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.8
-1.7
-1.3
-1.1
-1.1
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.9
1.1
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.3
Contact info:
Alan Wilson
Director of Consulting Services, Oxford Economics
01865 268904
[email protected]
Neil Gibson
Director of Regional Services, Oxford Economics
02892 660669
[email protected]
Kerry Houston
Head of Regional Model Development
02892 660669
[email protected]
Miriam Ferrari
Senior Economist
02892 660669
[email protected]