Transcript Document

Greater Manchester Forecasting
Model
25th November 2014
Professor Neil Gibson
Special Advisor: Oxford Economics
Agenda
The key facts
Changes since last release
The outlook
Exploring the unemployment story
Commuting flows – how have they changed?
Risks and policy considerations
Our details & what is available
2
The key facts
3
Greater Manchester - A vital component of the UK economy
2014
2.7 Million People
Employment
1.4 Million Jobs
Gross Value Added
£54.7 billion GVA
Source: Oxford Economics
4
Service sector dominates the labour market…
Greater Manchester Population & employment breakdown - 2014
Looking after
family home
3%
Student
3%
Unemployed
2%
Sick
3%
Construction
6%
Other
2%
Manufacturing
8%
Wholesale &
retail
15%
Child
population
20%
Employed
51%
Elderly
population
16%
Source: Annual Population Survey, Oxford Economics
5
Business
services
26%
Other
19%
Public
services
26%
…generating over half the wealth
Sectoral breakdown of GM’s 2014 GVA
£55 Billion
Construction
Manufacturing
0
Wholesale
& retail
10,000
Other
20,000
Public services
30,000
£m 2011
Source: Oxford Economics
6
Business services
40,000
50,000
Manchester accounts for over a quarter of jobs
% of total GM Employment 2014
Wigan
8.4%
Bolton
9.0%
Bury
5.5%
Rochdale
5.9 %
Oldham
Salford
6.5%
9.9 %
Manchester
Trafford
27.7%
Tameside
5.7%
11.4%
Stockport
10.1%
Source: Oxford Economics
7
… and GVA
% of total GM GVA 2014
Wigan
7.7%
Bolton
8.4%
Bury
4.9%
Rochdale
5.5 %
Oldham
Salford
5.9%
10.6%
Manchester
Trafford
29.3%
Tameside
5.56%
12.0%
Stockport
10.1%
Source: Oxford Economics
8
Changes since last release
9
Forecast changes modest – new starting points
Population Greater Manchester
2,950
2,850
Current release
2,800
Last release
2,750
2,700
2,650
2,600
2,550
2,500
2000
2005
2010
2015
Employment Greater Manchester
2020
1,550
■
Demographic outlook remains similar.
■
The total employment level in 2014 is
some 48,000 jobs higher than that
estimated in the last release.
■
The jobs forecast is very similar to last
year, albeit from a higher base.
1,500
1,450
(000s)
(000s)
2,900
Current release
Last release
1,400
1,350
1,300
1,250
1,200
2000
10
Source: ONS, Oxford Economics
2005
2010
2015
2020
Changes since last release
GVA Greater Manchester
6
■
Our GVA growth outlook for the area is
marginally weaker than the previous
release.
■
GVA has been rebased to 2011 prices and
based upon the 2010 European System of
Accounts.
4
(%)
2
0
-2
Current release
-4
Last release
Unemployment Greater Manchester
-6
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
90
80
■
■
The unemployment outlook is more
positive this year, with around 20,000 fewer
claimants expected in 2024.
The latest data shows 2014 to have been
better than expected
Welfare effect more muted than
provisioned for, coupled with higher job
numbers and modestly less population
Source: ONS, Claimant Count, Oxford Economics
11
70
(000s)
■
Current
release
Last
release
60
50
40
30
20
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Changes since last release
Summary of differences in 2014
Population (000s) Employment (000s) GVA growth (pp change) Unemployment (000s)
Bolton
Bury
Oldham
Rochdale
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Manchester
Salford
Greater Manchester
-0.6
-0.4
0.5
-0.5
0.8
-0.1
1.2
0.8
-3.4
-1.2
-2.8
8.5
-1.0
0.7
-4.6
-3.5
1.3
12.7
2.5
24.3
6.9
56.2
Source: ONS, Claimant Count, Oxford Economics
12
1.7
0.7
0.7
-0.3
-0.3
1.0
1.7
0.8
1.6
1.2
1.2
-2.3
-1.1
-1.9
-1.6
-1.3
-1.7
-1.3
-2.4
-4.5
-2.1
-20.2
Specialisms – Winners and losers
Note:
Winners &
Losers
Head offices
Management consultancy
Call centres
Other social work
Social security activities
Wholesale of machinery
Temp agency
Amusement
Public administration of
state policies
Cleaning services
Other social work
Wholesale of
machinery
Rochdale
Bolton
Wigan
Trafford
Hospital activities
Temp agency
Tax consultancy
Cleaning services
Employment agencies
Public admin of state policies
Manufacture of wearing
apparel
Social work activities
Warehousing & storage
Other social work
Head offices
Residential care for elderly
& disabled
Stockport
Event catering
Retail sales in specialised stores
Call centres
Public admin of state policies
Source: BRES, Oxford Economics Hospital activities
13
Auxiliary insurance & pension
Tax consultancy
Waste treatment
Temp agency
Cleaning services
Wholesale of machinery
Manufacture of gas
2013 BRES results revealed…
Top 10 and bottom 10 employee changes, Greater Manchester,
2012-2013
14
Source: BRES
Temporary employment agency activities
Activities of call centres
Accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities
Other postal and courier activities
Retail sale of other goods in specialised stores
Real estate activities on a fee or contract basis
Renting and operating of own or leased real estate
Event catering and other food service activities
Management consultancy activities
Wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco
2012-2013
4800
4800
4100
3700
3500
3400
3400
3200
3000
2400
Other social work activities without accommodation
Wholesale of other machinery, equipment and supplies
Cleaning activities
Beverage serving activities
Electrical, plumbing and other construction installation
Restaurants and mobile food service activities
Private security activities
Freight transport by road and removal services
Manufacture of furniture
Retail sale in non-specialised stores
2012-2013
-6200
-5800
-3500
-3000
-2800
-2400
-2300
-2100
-2000
-1900
Biggest changes between 2012 and 2013….
Activities of head
offices: +1322 jobs
Wholesale of other
machinery, equipment
and supplies: -587 jobs
Manufacture of gas;
distribution of gaseous fuels
through mains: +1142 jobs
Wireless telecommunications
activities: -667 jobs
Administration of the
State: +3090 jobs
Rochdale
Other social work
activities: -1806 jobs
Bolton
Wigan
Bury
Tameside
Trafford
Stockport
Hospital activities: +1944
jobs
Administration of the State:
-1147 jobs
15
Activities of head offices: -1533
jobs
Renting and operating
of own or leased real
estate: +707 jobs
Wholesale of other
machinery, equipment
and supplies: -540 jobs
Salford
Administration of the
State : +1715 jobs
Event catering and
other food service
activities: -1842 jobs
Oldham
Warehousing and storage: +341
jobs
Activities of call centres: +3749 jobs
Hospital activities: -2588 jobs
Secondary education:
+310 jobs
Accounting,
bookkeeping and
auditing activities; tax
consultancy: -587 jobs
Accounting, bookkeeping and
auditing activities; tax
consultancy: +640 jobs
Manufacture of gas; distribution
of gaseous fuels through mains:
-1243 jobs
Making sense of the data?
Labour market indicators, change, 2012-2013
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Greater Manchester
North West
16
BRES, employee
jobs
Claimant count
3,900
-800
800
-800
16,300
-2,200
100
-1,800
-2,600
-1,400
4,200
-900
-2,200
-600
100
-1,400
7,000
-800
1,200
-1,700
28,800
-12,400
41,000
-30,700
APS
employment
-2,100
-300
12,000
2,000
1,400
-3,600
6,600
2,600
3,400
-4,500
17,500
37,900
APS
unemployment
400
-2,900
-7,900
-2,100
-1,200
4,900
-400
1,200
-900
1,400
-7,500
-25,600
The outlook
17
What’s the story? – The Outlook
2014 – 2024 growth
128,000 More People
Employment
109,000 Net New Jobs
Gross Value Added
£17bn More annual GVA
Source: Oxford Economics
18
The regional picture - In line with the UK average
Per Annum GVA Growth 2014 - 2024
Greater Manchester
2.78%
Lower than Greater Manchester
Higher than Greater Manchester
Scotland
2.34%
UK
2.78%
Northern Ireland
2.23%
East Midlands
2.53%
North West
2.53%
East
2.85%
Wales
2.40%
London
3.39%
a
South West
2.68%
19
South East
2.94%
Recovery for all, but city economies do still lead
2008-2014 pa % growth
2014-2024 pa % growth
GVA growth per
annum (%)
Greater
Manchester
20
Greater
Manchester
Service strength leading the employment forecasts
UK more heavily
concentrated
Greater Manchester more heavily
concentrated
Information & comms
Accommodation & food
Agriculture
Public admin & defence
Arts & entertainment
Construction
Education
Mining & Quarrying
Other service activities
Human health & social work
Manufacturing
Water supply & waste management
Electricity, gas & steam
Financial & insurance
Real estate
transportation & storage
Wholesale & retail
Professional, scientific & technical
Admin & support
-1.50
-1.00
Source: Oxford Economics
21
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
pp. differnce (GM % - UK %)
Change in jobs 2014-24
+6,400
+8,100
-300
-6,700
+6,800
+13,800
-3,700
-100
+4,400
-5,300
-14,300
-500
-1,100
+2,300
+7,200
+9,200
+11,400
+31,200
+29,700
1.50
2.00
But industry plays bigger role in GVA outlook
GVA growth 2014-2024 – Greater Manchester (£m 2011)
Professional, scientific & technical
Wholesale & retail
Admin & support
Information & comms
Financial & insurance
Manufacturing
Construction
Human health & social work
Transportation & storage
Accommodation & food
Other service activities
Arts & entertainment
Education
Electricity, gas & steam
Water supply & waste management
Public admin & defence
Agriculture
Mining & Quarrying
Non Domestic
Domestic
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
£2011m
Source: Oxford Economics
22
Note: Excludes real estate as this includes ownership of dwellings and imputed
rents
The Outlook – headline local forecasts
Bolton
Bury
Oldham
Rochdale
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Manchester
Salford
2014 - 2024 per annum change
Jobs (000s)
GVA (% per annum) Population (000s)
1.1
2.8%
1.3
0.5
2.6%
0.9
0.4
2.4%
0.6
0.2
2.2%
0.4
1.0
2.7%
1.2
0.2
2.2%
0.6
1.3
2.8%
0.9
0.4
2.3%
0.9
4.3
3.1%
3.9
1.7
3.1%
2.0
Source: ONS, Claimant Count, Oxford Economics
23
Private services dominating job creation
Employment change, 2014-2024 (000’s)
45
Public services
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Source: Oxford Economics
24
Private services
Production
Sectoral focus – key business services
ICT, professional services, administration, accommodation & food and
arts employment (000s)
600
Forecast
500
82,000
Jobs
(000s)
400
Greater
Manchester
300
44,000
Jobs
200
Manchester
& Salford
100
0
2000
2004
2008
Source: Oxford Economics
25
2012
2016
2020
2024
■ Crucial ‘backbone’ of
jobs recovery
■ Growth has been
strong consistently in
cities
■ ICT has upside risk
Key Drivers: ICT and professional services
■ Classification can be an issue – but strong
growth in parts of the country
ICT employment (000s)
50
Forecast
■ Expected to grow steadily
45
6,400
Jobs
40
Greater
Manchester
30
25
3,200
Jobs
Manchester
& Salford
20
15
10
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Professional services employment (000s)
180
Forecast
160
31,200
Jobs
Greater
Manchester
140
■The primary source of job growth
■‘Catch-all’ sector for wide range of services –
suggest breaking down where you can in
policy circles
■Remember outsourcing from other sectors –
key to understand this sector
Source: Oxford Economics
26
120
(000s)
(000s)
35
■ ‘Big Data’ and computerisation of more
activities (law, consulting etc. could see reclassification into this sector)
100
80
17,400
Jobs
Manchester
& Salford
60
40
20
0
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Key Drivers: Admin and hotels sector
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
■ Fast growing sector and likely to rise even
faster as greater use of recruitment workers
and outsourcing of activities
Forecast
29,700
Jobs
■ Needs ‘broken down’ to fully understand the
local labour market – do you know what
your agency workers do?
Greater
Manchester
16,300
Jobs
Manchester
& Salford
Accommodation & food employment (000s)
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
120
Forecast
14,900
Jobs
Greater
Manchester
100
■ Key sector for both tourism and consumer
spending
■ Expected to recover in line with wider
economy, but could do even better?
80
(000s)
(000s)
Admin & support employment (000s)
60
7,300
Jobs
40
Manchester
& Salford
20
Source: Oxford Economics
27
0
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Key Drivers: Summary
ICT, professional services, administration, accommodation & food and
arts employment (000s)
ICT
Bolton
Bury
Oldham
Rochdale
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Manchester
Salford
Greater Manchester
0.40
0.30
0.30
0.20
0.90
0.20
0.70
0.30
2.00
1.20
6.50
2014 - 2024 Employment Change (000s)
Professional Administrative
Arts &
services
services
entertainment
3.50
2.40
0.70
1.30
0.80
0.30
0.90
1.00
0.20
0.80
0.80
0.30
2.40
2.70
0.70
0.90
0.50
0.30
3.40
3.20
0.90
0.80
2.10
0.70
14.20
10.90
2.00
3.20
5.40
0.60
31.40
29.80
6.70
Suggests the area has a specialism in this sector
Source: Oxford Economics
28
Total
7.00
2.70
2.40
2.10
6.70
1.90
8.20
3.90
29.10
10.40
74.40
UK LQ <1.2
UK LQ >1.2
Key drivers: The contrast in industrial jobs and GVA
Employment – Thousands
200
GVA - £m 2011
8,500
Forecast
Forecast
8,000
175
7,500
(£m 2011)
(000s)
150
125
100
7,000
6,500
6,000
75
5,500
50
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
5,000
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
14,000 Manufacturing job losses are forecast over the next decade, with per annum
GVA growth of 1.7% expected.
Source: Oxford Economics
29
A little more on manufacturing…
What Greater Manchester makes…
Top Manufacturing Sectors - Greater Manchester
Employees
GB LQ
5,700
3,300
2,900
2,900
2,800
2,600
2,500
2,300
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,700
1,700
1,600
1,600
1,500
1,500
1,400
1,400
1,300
1.89
0.90
1.45
3.08
2.63
0.69
1.49
0.93
5.13
1.61
1.28
0.83
2.36
2.46
1.55
1.08
1.38
2.19
0.88
1.36
Manufacture of bread, pastry goods and cakes
Other printing
Manufacture of plastic products
Manufacture of made-up textile articles
Manufacture of rusks and biscuits
Machining
Manufacture of builders ware of plastic
Manufacture of instruments
Manufacture of soap and detergents
Manufacture of other food products
Manufacture of other furniture
Manufacture of metal structures
Manufacture of motor vehicles and coachworks
Manufacture of paints and varnishes
Manufacture of general-purpose machinery
Manufacture of medical and dental instruments
Manufacture of prepared meals and dishes
Manufacture of rubber products
Manufacture of builders' carpentry and joinery
Manufacture of plastic packing goods
LQ > 1.2
Source: Business Register Employment Survey
30
Manufacture of bread
tops the list of
manufacturing sectors
within Greater
Manchester, with over 5%
of total manufacturing
employment coming from
this sector.
Manufacturing still a key component across GM
Manufacturing: 11,800
Manufacturing: 7,000
■ Baking: 2,300
■ Plastics: 1,300
■ Plastics: 1,200
■ Soap & detergents: 700
■ Furniture: 900
■ Other textiles: 500
Manufacturing: 12,500
Manufacturing: 10,800
Bolton
■ Plastics: 700
Wigan
Bury
■ Metal Treatment: 800
Oldham
Tameside
■ Basic chemicals: 800
■ Instruments: 500
■ Plastics: 800
Stockport
Manufacturing: 10,100
Manufacturing: 10,400
■ Meat processing: 1,000
Trafford
■ General machines: 400
■ General machines: 600
Manufacturing: 10,100
■ Grains & starches: 1,000
31
■ Furniture: 800
Salford
Manufacturing: 7,600
■ Printing: 700
Manufacturing: 9,900
■ Baking: 900
■ Baking: 1,100
■ Dairy products: 800
■ Other textiles: 1,100
■ General machines: 800
Rochdale
■ Other food: 2,700
■ Plastics: 1,200
Manufacturing: 13,400
■ Baking: 1,300
■ Metal fabrication: 1,600
■ Printing: 1,200
■ Knitted apparel: 1,100
■ Instruments: 600
■ Baking: 1,100
Business services – what does it really do?
Business services: 16,200
Business services: 7,300
■ Legal: 2,200
■ Head offices: 900
■ Management consulting: 2,000
■ Tax consulting: 800
■ Temp agency: 1,900
■ Architecture: 700
Business services: 8,900
■ Temp agency : 3,400
■ Advertising: 800
■ Management consulting: 600
Business services: 14,200
■ Temp agency : 1,600
■ Business support:
Bolton
1,500
Bury
■ Management
consulting: 1,000
Oldham
■ Private security: 1,300
■ Recruiters: 900
Wigan
Salford
Tameside
Business services: 24,400
■ Cleaning: 5,300
■ Temp agency: 3,100
Business services: 6,500
■ Tax consulting: 1,400
Trafford
■ Management
■ Architecture: 800
Stockport
consulting: 2,300
32
Business services: 7,600
Rochdale
■ Temp agency: 3,100
■ Temp agency : 700
Business services: 36,400
Business services: 73,500
Business services: 21,100
■ Temp agency : 7,800
■ Temp agency : 13,300
■ Support: 3,500
■ Tax consulting: 6,800
■ Legal: 10,000
■ Architecture: 2,400
■ Private security: 5,100
■ Management consulting: 7,700
■ Tax consulting: 2,200
Research questions
 Understanding the local data – examining the results,
checking the validity and inputting on the baseline position.
 The temporary employment agencies – a key component of
the labour market, what sectors are the people actually
working in?
 What does the professional services sector do? Who does
it serve, what are the risks / opportunities?
33
Exploring the unemployment story
34
All areas experienced falls in unemployment numbers
Unemployment, claimant count
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
October 2012
October 2014
0
4,000
Source: Claimant Count
35 Note: excludes Universal Credit
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
Good news for the young, not the long term unemployed
Unemployment by age
Younger unemployed workers
have benefited most.
25,000
October 2012
20,000
October 2014
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Unemployment duration
Under 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+
24
2+ years
Unemployment halves from
84,000 in October 2012 to
42,000 in October 2014, but
long-term unemployment
persists.
October 2012
October 2014
1 - 2 years
6 - 12
months
3 - 6 months
3 months
Source: Claimant Count
36 Note: excludes Universal Credit
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Elementary workers finding jobs (or falling out of the system?)
Unemployment by occupation
Management and senior staff
haven’t benefited from the fall in
un employment.
Elementary
Plant & Machine operators
Customer Service
Personal service
Skilled Trade
October 2012
Admin & secretaries
October 2014
Technical
Professionals
Managers
Unknown
Unemployment by age
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
14,000
12,000
Males Oct '12
Males Oct '14
10,000
Females Oct '12
Females Oct '14
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Source: Claimant Count
37
Note: excludes Universal Credit
Is Greater Manchester close to full employment?
Unemployment, Oct 2014
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Greater Manchester
Source: Claimant Count
38
Note: excludes Universal Credit
Total
claimants,
Oct 14
4,760
2,370
11,430
2,910
3,220
4,070
3,710
2,860
2,150
4,320
41,810
%
2.7
2.0
3.1
2.1
2.4
2.6
2.1
2.0
1.5
2.1
2.4
%
excluding
long term
claimants
1.8
1.4
2.2
1.3
1.8
1.9
1.6
1.4
1.1
1.4
1.7
77 wards across
Greater
Manchester
currently have an
unemployment rate
less than 1.7%
Policy observations
 Are skills shortages about to re-emerge, evidence would
suggest yes
 Impact on migration?
 Are the falling numbers of people unemployed reflecting
more people in work, or people leaving the system
 The long term unemployment problem remains a key
challenge
 How well do we understand inactivity / hidden
unemployment?
39
Commuting flows – how have they
changed?
40
Significant in-flows into all labour markets
Commuting in all areas rises over the decade except for Manchester
Bury:
45.0%
Change 2001-2011
(percentage point difference)
Rochdale:
38.5%
Bolton:
35.3%
Oldham:
38.9%
Wigan:
28.8%
Tameside:
36.4%
Salford:
60.1%
Stockport:
46.5%
Greater than 2001
Less than 2001
Source: Census
41
Trafford:
62.8%
Manchester:
62.3%
Who takes Manchester’s jobs?
Usual place of residence of Manchester’s
workforce, top 20
Manchester
Stockport
Trafford
Tameside
Salford
Bury
Oldham
Cheshire East
Rochdale
Bolton
Wigan
Warrington
High Peak
Cheshire West and Chester
Rossendale
St. Helens
Liverpool
Chorley
Kirklees
Sefton
Source: Census
42
2001
95,200
27,200
22,600
17,800
14,900
13,600
11,700
10,000
9,600
6,600
5,300
3,900
3,700
3,000
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
800
Manchester
Stockport
Trafford
Salford
Tameside
Bury
Oldham
Cheshire East
Rochdale
Bolton
Wigan
Warrington
High Peak
Cheshire West and Chester
Liverpool
Rossendale
St. Helens
Kirklees
Chorley
Calderdale
2011
108,700
25,500
24,800
18,900
17,500
12,100
11,700
9,400
9,300
7,000
5,400
4,200
3,300
2,900
1,700
1,500
1,400
1,100
1,100
900
Residents leaving to work….
% of working residents who work in own area,
2011
60%
52%
44%
Rochdale
53%
Bolton
Wigan
Bury
56%
Oldham
Salford
Tameside
47%
Trafford
43%
Stockport
48%
45%
Greater than 2001
Less than 2001
Source: Census
43
60%
A growing population will impact flows
Demographic changes 2014-2024
2014 - 2024 change (000s)
Population (ONS)
Population (OE)
Bolton
Bury
Oldham
Rochdale
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Manchester
Salford
Greater Manchester
Source: Oxford Economics, ONS
44
16.4
10.1
9.2
5.3
13.9
13.4
16.3
17.6
34.0
23.4
159.6
12.8
8.5
6.3
4.0
11.7
6.3
9.3
9.2
39.3
20.2
127.6
More jobs would be required under ONS population outlook
2014 -2024
Job forecast (000s)
Bolton
Bury
Oldham
Rochdale
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Manchester
Salford
Greater Manchester
Source: Oxford Economics, ONS
45
10.9
5.0
3.7
1.8
9.8
1.8
12.7
4.3
42.6
16.6
109.2
Additional jobs required
to support ONS
population
2.4
1.1
1.3
0.6
1.2
4.3
3.0
4.7
-2.1
2.4
18.8
Risks and policy considerations
46
Assessing the risks
 Upside: wage pressures, skills shortages
 Upside: sectoral tapestry – spreading the wealth?
 Downside: Debt and interest rate rises
 Downside: Austerity, cutting not pruning?
 Upside / downside: The competition
 Upside / downside: External conditions
47
Policy considerations
 Jobs growth – do we believe it, could there be upside pressures?
 Are we on top of the business issues, esp. skills?
 Demographics – scenario planning, merging your knowledge with the data
 Broader church of growth – challenging picking winners?
 The supply side impacts of broader growth – skills, land, housing, transport
 Vulnerability of jobs – temporary agencies and the elementary workers
 How is the public sector today? Are we austerity ready (and will it happen)?
48
Our details and what is available
49
GMFM 2014 – What is available
 Economy :
■ Employment;
■ Employees (note: excludes selfemployment);
■ GVA;
 Demographics:
 Employment by 25 minor occupation
groups;
 Qualification levels by occupation;
 Replacement demand by occupation;
 Household numbers;
■ Total population;
 Household income;
■ Broad age groups (young, working age
population and elderly);
 Carbon emissions, and
■ Migration – domestic & international;
 Demand for commercial floorspace
 Residence based
employment/employment rate;
 Unemployment level / rate;
 Note: economy results broken down by
broad sector, 50 SIC2007 sectors as well
as sectors defined by the New Economy
Contact details:
Oxford Economics
Lagan House
Sackville Street
Lisburn
County Down
BT27 4AB
UK
Tel: 028 9263 5403
Fax: 028 9263 5425
Kerry Houston
Head of Regional Forecasting
Oxford Economics
Email: [email protected]
Tel: 02892 635402
Anthony Light
Associate Director
Oxford Economics
Email: [email protected]
Tel: 0207 803 1419