Transcript Document
Greater Manchester
Forecasting Model
2011 report update
October 2011
Contents
Executive summary
Annex A – local summary tables
Introduction / background
■ Summary tables – Bolton
Macro context
■ Summary tables – Bury
What has changed
North West outlook
Greater Manchester outlook
Summary local authority forecasts
■ Bolton
■ Bury
■ Manchester
■ Oldham
■ Summary tables – Manchester
■ Summary tables – Oldham
■ Summary tables – Rochdale
■ Summary tables – Salford
■ Summary tables – Stockport
■ Summary tables – Tameside
■ Summary tables – Trafford
■ Summary tables – Wigan
■ Rochdale
■ Summary tables – Greater Manchester
■ Salford
■ Summary tables – North West
■ Stockport
■ Summary tables – UK
■ Tameside
■ Trafford
■ Wigan
■ Greater Manchester
Annex B: GMFM variables
Contact information
Executive summary
A slow and patchy recovery
The UK recovery has so far been disappointing, with
one off factors such as the Japanese earthquake and a
grouping of public holidays in April offering partial
explanation but it is clear that the underlying recovery
momentum has proved much slower than originally
thought. Consequently, the short term outlook has
been revised downwards from our 2010 forecast in
reaction to a deteriorating global outlook and
turbulence in financial markets.
Annual UK growth (% change per annum),
1992-2022
%
5
4
3
2
1
0
-11991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
-2
Global factors remain as the primarily downside risks to
the outlook, with only a 45% probability attached to our
baseline forecasts.
-3
-4
-5
-6
Source : GMFM
The labour market has remained surprisingly resilient
given the weak growth performance. Unemployment
has begun to rise again and we expected employment
to continue to fall until 2013 when labour market growth
is expected to return.
UK employment growth (millions), 1992-2022
UK: Employment
millions
34
33
The level of jobs growth forecast is more modest than
that of the previous decade with growth expected to be
led by the business services sector. This very broad
sector includes many outsourced manufacturing
activities and a wide range of both domestic and
international sectors such as legal, consulting,
marketing, support services, computer related services
and R&D.
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
1991
1995
1999
Source : GMFM
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Greater Manchester to lead the North West
Greater Manchester key indicators
Employee growth (000s)
Employment growth (000s)
Resident employment (000s)
Population (000s)
GVA (£bn)
Households (000s)
1998-2008
91.8
109.5
81.0
58.3
8.1
81.5
2008-2012
-28.6
-31.0
-28.6
87.7
0.6
52.0
2012-2022
92.7
102.1
82.5
132.4
12.8
98.1
Greater Manchester employment growth
(millions) 1992-2022
millions
1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25
Job growth is expected to return in 2013, with peak
levels of employment achieved in 2008 are not forecast
to return until 2015
The employment outlook suggests that the region will
return to ‘trend’ growth over the later part of the decade
ahead. Almost 100,000 net additional jobs are forecast
within GM which is only slightly slower than the decade
prior to the recession (110,000 jobs between 19982008). The growth will be lead by the business services
sector.
1.20
1.15
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Source : GMFM
Greater Manchester annual GVA growth, 19922022
% annual
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
GVA growth is forecast to be 1.7% this year and 1.6%
in 2012. However, we forecast growth above 2.5% for
the remainder of the decade ahead
1.0
0.0
1992
1996
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Comparative performance
Greater Manchester is forecast to lead the North
West’s recovery. GVA growth within the area is
expected to be significantly above the North West
average matching the UK rate of growth over the
medium term.
Total employment growth, 2008-2021
(2008=100)
2008=100
106
104
UK
North West
Greater Manchester
102
The productivity gap is likely to remain unchanged
over the forecast period.
100
98
The area’s high concentration of professional
services and highly skilled workforce, is the key factor
in the driving the forecasts. It is these sectors which
we expect to lead the recovery.
Contracting public services and manufacturing, along
with weaker growth in consumer demand-led sectors,
mean that the recovery within the North West will lag
behind the UK. Those areas more reliant upon the
public sector will have a much more muted recovery.
96
94
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Source : GMFM
GVA per employee (£000s), 1998-2021
£000s
47
45
43
UK
North West
Greater Manchester
41
39
37
35
33
31
29
27
1998
2002
Source : GMFM
2006
2010
2014
2018
District overview
All areas are expected to enjoy net job growth over
the decade ahead, though this is expected to be very
modest within Tameside – the result of a higher
relative dependence upon the public sector and
manufacturing.
Significant levels of natural increase is the key factor
underpinning the population forecast. Migration
remains a crucial unknown within the forecast and
the release of the 2010 data suggested record high
levels of migrants into the area.
Population
Employment
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Warrington
Wigan
Trafford
Tameside
Stockport
Salford
Rochdale
-0.2
Oldham
0.0
Manchester
Manchester, Salford, Trafford and Warrington are
expected to see the biggest increase in employment
over the decade ahead. This is the result of the
sectoral composition of these areas as they have a
higher concentration of service sector export activity
to help drive the recovery.
1.4
% per
annum
Bury
The majority of GM districts suffered job losses
between 2008-2012, with Manchester, Tameside,
Trafford the only exceptions. This is likely to be
incorrect given other indicators for these areas. Over
40% of GM job losses occurred within Stockport
(12,000 jobs). This is largely due to a severe
contraction within construction, though we have
concerns over the reliability of BRES data.
Bolton
Population and employment average annual
growth, 2011-2021
Source : GMFM
Population and employment change, 2008-2021
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Greater Manchester
2008-2011
Population
Employment
(000s)
(000s)
3.8
-7.0
3.1
-0.9
36.3
2.6
2.4
-3.9
1.4
-1.5
8.7
-5.1
3.3
-11.8
3.7
0.6
5.2
0.6
3.5
-1.6
71.4
-28.1
2011-2021
Population
Employment
(000s)
(000s)
7.1
2.6
8.6
2.8
52.7
41.1
6.3
3.1
4.0
2.8
19.4
15.7
6.8
7.2
11.4
0.8
9.4
14.6
10.8
5.1
136.6
96.0
Key risks
On balance the risks to the forecast remain on the downside, we only place a 10% chance on the possibility of an
outturn above our central case in 2011 and 2012 (that of a corporate re-awakening).
Downside risks to world growth continue to rise and thus we estimate a probability of around 45% for our central
case. This is quite low for a baseline scenario and reflects the significant and rising risks that currently exist. These
risks are very much skewed to the down side and include:
■
Disorderly Eurozone debt default (probability 20%)
■
US recession (probability 15%)
■
China hard landing (probability 10%)
Introduction / background
Model overview
The Greater Manchester Forecast Model (GMFM) was originally designed as part of the
Manchester/Salford Pathfinder project and is now managed by the Commission for the New
Economy.
The model provides economic, demographic and housing forecasts for the North West Local
Authorities. At present the City Region areas are forecast in detail with surrounding Authorities in
the region available in less detail.
The model is unique in providing a link between housing and the economy and the model has
undergone a number of developments since its inception.
Annex A provides summary data for each of the City Region councils.
Annex B lists the main variables available within the model.
Report overview
This report includes a summary of the forecasts produced in the sixth annual update of the GMFM
model (Autumn 2011).
An accompanying technical manual sets out the structure of the model, the linkages within and
detailed descriptions of the data used.
A spreadsheet containing the majority of the forecast variables is also provided to accompany this
report.
This report summarises the key economic trends in the global economy, the UK, The North West,
Greater Manchester and the individual City Region Local Authorities.
This report provides a very brief summary of the information contained and users / interested parties
are encouraged to contact the model custodians within the Commission for the New Economy and the
GMFM model team at Oxford Economics to discuss any issues or questions they may have.
Contacts:
Alex Roy
Commission for the New Economy
Kerry Houston
Oxford Economics
Purpose and aims
The GMFM model has a number of key aims:
■ A consistent evidence base for the City Region for use in strategy and policy development.
■ A set of ‘base case’ forecasts for the City Region prepared by a leading independent
forecasting house (Oxford Economics).
■ A starting point for looking at scenarios or alternate futures.
■ A ‘trigger’ mechanism to raise awareness of a wide range of emerging issues, for example
impact of migration, housing development etc.
■ An information resource collating a wide range of data in a central location and in a consistent
manner.
■ A tool to help capacity building within Greater Manchester with respect to understanding and
using forecast material.
2011 update
The update process
New data included
Carried out in August 2011, this is the
seventh update of the GMFM model
Data cut off was 31st August 2011.
New global, UK, North West outlooks
New data
■ BRES (2008 revised and 2009)
The update includes:
Note: 2010 BRES results not included
■ Mid-year population estimates (2010)
■ Application of new forecasts and
outlooks
■ Housing stock, house prices, completions,
vacancies and demolitions
■ Entry of new / revised data
■ Earnings
■ Presentation of results to AGMA
■ Consultation with Local Authorities on
forecasts produced
■ Production of the final report and a data
spreadsheet
Key data dates:
■ Resident employment (2010)
■ Unemployment
■ Regional GVA (2006 prices)
■ Personal sector (regionally)
September 2011 - 2010 BRES (not included)
December 2011 - Regional GVA
Macro context
The recovery has been a bumpy ride so far
UK: GDP growth
q/q % change
1.5
Revisions to the GDP data show that the recession
was deeper than previously thought. The data
suggests that the recession involved a peak-to-trough
decline of 7.1%, compared to 6.4% in previous
estimate. However the length of the recession has
been shortened from six quarters to five.
Thus far the UK recovery has been slow and patchy,
but two unusual factors have complicated the
analysis
1.0
■ Concerns over data quality in the construction
sector have made it difficult to determine the
underlying trend
0.5
0.0
-0.5
■ Two winters of heavy snowfall and April’s extra
Bank Holiday for the Royal Wedding have all
disrupted activity
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source: Oxford Economics
Up until the past two quarters, the UK recovery had
largely kept pace with the 1990s. And while it lagged
well behind the US, it had progressed broadly in line
with the Eurozone. However, since the turn of the
year, it has tailed off.
Where do we go from here?
The GDP forecast has been revised
downwards on the back of a raft of
disappointing data and in particular due to
the ongoing difficulties within the Eurozone
economy.
UK growth excluding oil is now expected to
be around 1.2% in 2011 and remain sluggish
in 2012. ‘Fast’ economic growth above 3% is
not expected to return until 2013.
Productivity remains some 1.8% below prerecession levels and raises concerns about
the extent to which the private sector will
respond to any pickup in output by creating
jobs.
Note: the forecasts presented in this section
are taken from the UK October forecasts
whereas the remainder of the report is
consistent with September UK forecast. The
outlook is continually being revised given
rapidly changing economic conditions.
UK GVA growth (%)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Sep-11
2.9
-0.1
-4.7
1.7
1.3
1.8
3.0
Oct-11
3.7
-0.8
-4.5
1.9
1.2
1.4
3.1
Source: Oxford Economics
Note: Non-oil GDP
Consumer recovery slow
The latest data suggest that UK real
disposable income has fallen in 2010, the
first fall in real personal disposable income
since 1981.
UK: Real household disposable income
% year
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
This decline is expected to continue into
2011 as rising unemployment and falling
real wages continue to take their toll. Thus
it likely that the consumer recovery will be
slow to take off.
Source : Haver Analytics
UK: Consumer spending
% quarter, annualised rate
8
Forecast
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
1985
1990
1995
Source: Oxford Economics
2000
2005
2010
2015
It seems unlikely that a cut in VAT will be
implemented, due to the immediate effect
on government finances. Though this could
be revisited if retail sales continue to fall as
pressure on incomes increases.
Remaining a low interest rate environment
The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI)
inflation in the UK reached its record high in
September, rising to 5.2% from 4.5% the
month before.
UK: Nominal interest rates
%
18
Short rates
16
Forecast
To balance high inflation, interest rates are
expected to remain at their historic low levels
well in 2012 and perhaps longer.
14
12
Any support for the economy is likely to come
in the form of further Quantitative Easing, with
the 3rd round announced in October. This
remains the preferred method of injecting
money into the economy in an effort to
stimulate demand.
Long rates
10
8
6
4
2
0
1985
1989
1993
1997
Source: Oxford Economics
2001
2005
2009
2013
Core debt problem unresolved
Government Gross debt stock, %
GDP, 2011
The level of government debt remains an
issue with UK gross debt currently estimated
at £1.2 tr or £19,000 per capita.
Finland
Netherlands
Slovakia
Austria
Spain
Government spending will continue to remain
muted, and will act as a significant drag on
growth.
UK
Germany
France
Portugal
Belgium
ROI
With little demand from consumer and the
public sector, the focus will be on private
sector investment and export demand to drive
the recovery.
US
Italy
Greece
0
20
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Government gross debt stock % GDP (2011)
Source: Oxford Economics
UK: Contribution of government consumption
and investment to GDP growth
% of GDP
1.4
Average 1980-97
F'cast
1
0.6
0.2
-0.2
-0.6
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Source: Oxford Economics
Labour market ‘standing still’
UK: Employment
The employment outlook suggests a
continued contraction in the short run before
the slow climb in employment begins in 2013.
The jobs outlook is much more modest than
that of the pre-recession decade.
millions
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Source : GMFM
UK: Unemployment
%
11
Forecast
10
9
8
7
ILO
6
5
4
Claimant count
3
2
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Oxford Economics
The sharp contraction in productivity would
suggest that much of the labour needed to
increase output may currently be in
employment, thus implying a very flat
employment profile.
Unemployment has begun to creep upwards
again and with the growth outlook having
weakened considerably, further increases in
unemployment look likely.
This rate could rise further depending upon
how welfare reform measures are
implemented.
Thus private sector key to the outlook
The employment outlook is dependent upon
business services to drive growth. This is in
response to strong global demand for high
skilled professional services.
Sectoral employment change, UK, 1998-2022
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Retail & distribution
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial services
Business services
Public admin. & defence
Education
Health & social care
Other personal services
Total employment
1998-2008
-60
-10
-1460
-20
410
170
260
220
90
1640
180
570
810
370
3060
2008-2012
70
-10
-290
40
-210
-280
-50
-50
-60
-110
-120
-20
290
-50
-860
2012-2022
-100
-20
-470
-20
250
390
170
180
40
1480
-120
-80
130
310
2140
Source: Oxford Economics
Note: Top 3 changes shaded in blue and bottom 3 shaded in red
The squeeze on public sector will act as a
drag to labour market growth. Given the
extent of the recent public sector jobs losses
despite it is only being the early stages of the
austerity programme, there is the risk that the
government could have underestimated the
scale of jobs losses required to achieve the
desired spending cuts.
Employment growth within retail & distribution
and other personal services is expected to
gain momentum over the medium term as
pressure on consumers ease.
Softer patch in prospect for the UK
Forecast for UK
(Annual percentage changes unless specified)
Domestic Demand
Private Consumption
Fixed Investment
Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
Government Consumption
Exports of Goods and Services
Imports of Goods and Services
GDP
Industrial Production
CPI
Current Balance (% of GDP)
Government Budget (% of GDP)
Short-Term Interest Rates (%)
Long-Term Interest Rates (%)
Exchange Rate (US$ per £)
Exchange Rate (Euro per £)
Source: Oxford Economics
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.7
1.0
2.6
0.4
1.5
6.2
8.5
1.8
1.9
3.3
-3.2
-10.2
0.69
3.61
1.55
1.17
-0.6
-1.2
-1.4
0.2
1.6
4.9
0.2
0.9
0.1
4.5
-2.1
-7.2
0.89
3.16
1.60
1.15
0.9
0.5
3.0
0.4
-1.0
3.3
2.5
1.1
1.1
2.4
-1.9
-5.4
0.98
2.78
1.55
1.17
1.8
1.9
6.5
0.3
-1.8
7.0
4.2
2.6
1.6
1.8
-1.4
-3.8
1.22
3.84
1.56
1.18
2.0
2.7
4.9
0.3
-2.4
6.7
4.1
2.8
1.7
1.8
-0.7
-1.7
2.27
4.73
1.57
1.24
2.3
3.0
4.4
0.3
-1.7
5.5
4.1
2.7
1.0
2.0
-0.3
-0.7
3.93
4.95
1.57
1.27
Summary
Though recent financial market turmoil has largely stemmed from the US and Eurozone, the UK
has felt the impact.
The combination of financial market turmoil, heightened concerns over the Eurozone sovereign
debt crisis and weaker data from the US have weakened UK growth prospects and, as such, we
have revised down our forecasts for this year and next.
The consumer outlook is also bleak, with a fall in consumer spending growth now forecast for this
year.
The impact of public spending cuts also remains an uncertainty, though the euro crisis shows why
they are needed and so far the private sector has offset public sector job losses.
Though markets appear to have stabilised somewhat, the outlook remains very uncertain and risks
are skewed to the downside.
Downside risks to Oxford Economics’ forecast
Bond market stress
Disorderly EZ default (20%)
■ Confidence in peripheral countries’
finances deteriorates further, leading to
an eventual debt restructuring
■ Pressure intensifies to cut budget
deficits rapidly in all major economies
■ Rising unemployment and business
failures feed back into banking
■ New wave of loan losses for global
banks leads to tighter credit conditions
■ Limited scope for monetary policy offset
Recession in USA (15%)
■ Risk premiums rise and global stock markets
tumble again with falls in business
confidence
■ Continued political deadlock between
Democrats and Republicans leads to fiscal
paralysis
■ Slump in labour market fuels household
retrenchment and consumption falls
■ Renminbi rises sharply as trade pressures
grow
China/Emerger hardlanding (10%)
Oxford forecast (45%)
■ Gradual rise in business confidence
encourages corporates to invest
■ But weak banks & excess capacity limit
scale of investment recovery
■ Consumer spending recovery limited
by pace of job growth and fiscal
retrenchment
■ But recovery strong enough that fiscal
crisis remains contained
■ Flight from risk leads to falling share &
property prices
■ Commercial property crash & external
weakness leads to banking sector stress
■ Investment slumps in China as government
recapitalises banks
■ Asian supply chain effected as domestic
engine of growth stalls
Corporate confidence
What has changed?
Population and migration
Population, Greater Manchester, 1991-2020
Population estimates have only been revised
modestly from our 2010 GMFM forecast. The
forecast is slightly higher in the short run but reaching
a similar level by 2030.
The 2010 net migration data was much higher than
we had expected and what other economic data
suggests. Thus it will important to review with the
2011 census results when they become available
next year as they are likely to show less migrants
than the mid-year estimates data suggests.
The migration forecasts in the current release are
more modest (and well below the official 2006 or
2008 based projections), though risks exist and it is
unclear how migration will react to the economic
challenges and the ‘jobless recovery’ which may lie
ahead for the UK.
Migration remains one of the key uncertainties in our
outlook. If population growth were to continue at the
recent rate, it would push down employment rates
and unemployment upwards unless job creation were
to accelerate.
000s
2800
GM GMFM 10 (RHS)
2750
GM GMFM 11 (RHS)
2700
2650
2600
2550
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2500
Source : GMFM
Migration in the North West: Oxford vs. SNPP,
1992-2020
000s
25
20
15
North West GMFM 10
North West GMFM 11
SNPP (2006 based)
SNPP (2008 based)
10
5
0
1992
-5
1996
-10
-15
-20
-25
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Total employment
Employment projections have been revised slightly
upwards in the short run and downwards in the long
run.
The short run upward revision is the result of the
latest BRES data in which the 2009 data was
stronger than we had envisaged in our 2010 report.
The labour market has remained stronger than
expected and thus our estimate of recession job
losses is more modest in the current release.
The weaker longer run picture is the result of
downward revisions to the public services outlook as
spending cuts are fully implemented.
The amount of time for the GM conurbation to regain
lost jobs remains a worrying statistic, with the
forecasts suggesting no return to the 2007 peak
before 2015.
Employment, Greater Manchester, 1991-2020
000s
1450
1400
GM GMFM 10 (RHS)
GM GMFM 11 (RHS)
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1050
Source : GMFM
Unemployment & GVA
Unemployment, Greater Manchester, 1991-2020
000s
The unemployment outlook has been revised
upwards in the longer run in light of a weaker labour
market forecast. Welfare reform could result in
unemployment rising further. Pilot studies suggest
that as much as a third of people claiming sickness
benefit could move across into unemployment.
Recent events have cast a shadow our the UK’s
outlook and have led us to downgrade our GVA
forecasts. The combination of the recent period of
financial turbulence, heightened concerns over the
Eurozone sovereign debt crisis and weaker data from
the US have led us to revise down our expectations
for global growth. In turn this has lead us to scale
back our forecasts for UK export growth. We now
expect GVA to growth to average 2.1% over the
decade ahead, compared to 2.5% in the 2010 report.
In GVA terms the outlook for GM is likely to be above
the regional average largely due to the sectoral
outlook, with professional services expected to be the
key driver of the growth.
140
GM GMFM 10 (RHS)
120
GM GMFM 11 (RHS)
100
80
60
40
20
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
Source : GMFM
GVA, Greater Manchester, 1991-2020
%
%
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
-1.00
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
GM GMFM 10 (RHS)
-5.00
GM GMFM 11 (RHS)
Source : GMFM
North West Outlook
A longer term recovery
UK forecast: a southern led recovery
The forecast continues to suggest an export led
recovery with the southern regions playing a
significant role given their sectoral composition. The
export orientated, service sector led outlook favours
the highly skilled southern regions and London in
particular.
In the devolved and more industrial regions, the
period of recovery is much longer due to the impact
of pubic sector job cuts, further decline in
manufacturing and a limited service sector export
base.
This suggests a widening of regional growth
differentials which had been modestly eroded during
the period of public sector growth.
Total employment: Regional groupings
Index 1990=100
125
South
120
115
110
North
105
100
Midlands
95
18
14
12
10
08
06
04
02
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
00
98
96
94
92
Source : Oxford Economics
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
90
90
16
Devolved
administration
s
North West forecasts
North West: GVA growth
Given the starting point of the recession, it was
hoped that recovery would be well underway by this
stage, now it is looking likely that it will be 2013
before growth of more than 2% returns and 2014
before what might be considered ‘fast’ economic
growth is enjoyed. This sluggish recovery is the
combination of constrained consumers, a retracting
government, nervous cash hording businesses and
weak global conditions.
The employment outlook suggests a continued
contraction in the short run before the slow climb in
employment begins in 2013. The region is not
expected to recover its recession job losses until
2023 at the earliest. Despite the prospects for
exports being strong, the level of job growth projected
in many sectors is modest. Public sectors job cuts
and continued contraction within manufacturing will
also add downward pressure to the employment
outlook. There is potential for sharper bounce back
than our forecast suggest if business confidence
rises and they start to spending, thus facilitating
faster growth.
Recession data suggests firms have spare capacity
so there is potential for ‘jobless growth’, however
business surveys do not concur.
% annual
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
Source : GMFM
North West: Employment outlook
000s
3510
3460
3410
3360
3310
3260
3210
3160
3110
3060
3010
1991 1995
Source : GMFM
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
North West
North West: Employment by broad sector
The fortunes of the private sector are key to the
outlook, with financial and business services expected
to be the key driver of employment growth over the
decade ahead. In the early 2020’s the forecasts
suggest that financial and business services will have
expanded to be three times bigger than manufacturing.
Manufacturing employment is forecast to continue to
fall but at a much slower rate. We expect a loss of
57,000 net jobs by 2021 compared to 157,000 jobs
losses over the previous decade.
As a result of the cutbacks in public spending
announced last year, the forecast is for a fall in public
services employment. We expect a further 46,000 jobs
losses by 2015 (note: this is in addition to the 32,000
jobs lost in 2011), returning to a level last experienced
in early 00’s. Public services has been a key driver of
recent growth and a contraction within the sector, will
have quite severe implications in many areas.
000s
2500
Private
services
2000
1500
Public
services
1000
500
Manufacturing
0
1991 1995
Source : GMFM
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Key export sectors
000s
900
Financial & business
services
800
700
600
500
400
Manufacturing
300
200
1991
1995
Source : GMFM
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
North West
The recent employment data suggest that the North
West is beginning to feel the impact of the public
spending cuts with public services employment
reported to have fallen by 32,000 jobs in 2011.
This downward trend is expected to continue within
the sector with a further 46,000 jobs forecast to be
lost by 2015.
The majority of the job losses are projected within
public admin and defence (17,000), with a loss of
over 16,000 within education and 13,000 within
health.
In the longer run, we expected employment within the
sector to remain fairly stable, at a level similar to that
of the early 00’s.
North West: Public Services Employment
(000's)
1000
900
800
700
600
1991 1995
Source : GMFM
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
North West (continued)
North West: Unemployment level and rate
Unemployment
480
(000s)
430
380
Natural increase is expected to continue to be the
main source of population growth within the North
West. Migration is expected to fall to a small outflow
in the short run due the limited job opportunities
during the somewhat slow paced recovery.
As highlighted previously, the migration outlook is the
key uncertainty within the forecast. If net migration
into the region where to continue at the 2010 rate, it
would push unemployment higher, employment rates
lower, increase pressure on public services and
housing.
12.5
10.5
280
8.5
Unemployment
(LHS)
230
6.5
180
4.5
130
2.5
80
1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
Source : GMFM
North West: Net migration and natural increase
Natural
increase
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Migration
5.0
000s
The result of the sluggish employment outlook leaves
unemployment higher than it has been in the recent
past. We forecast unemployment to stay above 4%
(of the working age population) and remaining at a
similar level to the late 1990’s. This rate could rise
further depending upon how welfare reform
measures are implemented.
14.5
Unemployment
rate (RHS)
330
0.0
1992
-5.0
Unemployment rate
1996
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
North West forecasts (continued)
North West: Key indicators
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
North West
2012
2022
6985.7
7197.8
2877.6
3021.9
396.5
410.1
3279.0
3436.3
212.2
156.7
2904.8
3035.4
67.6
69.6
113702.9
141957.4
-
Change
2012-22
3.0 (%)
5.0 (%)
3.4 (%)
4.8 (%)
-55.5 (000s)
130.5 (000s)
2.0 (pp)
2.1 (% pa)
-
The financial and business services sector is the key
sector driving the recovery. It is expected to gain
almost 130,000 net jobs over the decade ahead,
though this rate of expansion is slower than the
previous decade.
Labour market growth will be much slower than that of
the previous decade as public services contract. Also
the outlook for construction and other personal services
is more modest.
Unemployment is likely to remain a persistent problem
over the decade ahead due to the slow recovery, its
sectoral composition, public sector job cuts and
population growth.
Source: GMFM
North West: Change in employment (000s)
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution & hotels
Transport & communications
Finance & business services
Public admin. & defence
Education & health
Other personal services
Total employment
Selected sub-sectors
Retailing
Hotels & catering
Financial services
Professional business services
Additional data
Population
Unemployment (000s)
GVA (£m)
1998-2008
-2.7
-0.5
-199.2
-5.3
53.2
2.2
24.9
175.2
19.6
143.0
42.4
244.7
2008-2012
3.6
-0.5
-23.1
7.6
-45.9
-35.7
-12.3
-7.3
-2.1
-5.3
6.9
-118.4
2012-2022
-6.8
-0.4
-59.6
-1.9
20.9
54.3
17.8
131.9
-15.9
-9.5
27.6
157.3
15.5
11.3
14.6
38.4
-6.6
-15.0
-8.0
16.0
23.9
12.8
0.4
38.7
81.9
-44.6
20531.3
228.7
39.8
16997.8
214.2
-27.6
25683.5
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
Greater Manchester
A challenging outlook in uncertain times
Greater Manchester forecasts
Gr. Manchester: GVA growth
The forecast suggest that Greater Manchester will lead
the North West recovery. GVA growth of 1.7% is
expected in 2011 compared to 1.3% for UK. This is due
to the sectoral nature of the recovery with business
services, which GM has a significant proportion, likely
to be the key driver.
Employment is expected to continue to decline until
2013 when labour market growth is forecast to return.
However, it will take up to 2015 before the area has
recovered its recession job losses. Labour market
growth will be slower than that of the previous decade
as public services contract.
% annual
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
Source : GMFM
Greater Manchester: Employment outlook
000s
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1991
1995
Source : GMFM
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
2023
Greater Manchester
Greater Manchester: Employment by broad sector
The labour market recovery will be slow and will be
sectorally distinct from the pattern of growth which
typified much of the previous decade.
The fortunes of the private sector are key to the recovery
as public sector employment is likely to continue falling as
cuts are implemented due to continued weak UK fiscal
position. The location of universities and major hospitals
in the Greater Manchester area provides some insulation
to the public sector job losses as it is likely these front
line services will be less severely impacted than other
elements of the public sector.
Manufacturing is expected to continue its long term rate
of decline, though at a much slower rate than the
previous decade. Direct manufacturing employment
within GM is expected to fall below 100,000 for the first
time in 2017.
Financial and business services are expected to be the
key driver of employment growth over the decade ahead
as professional services exports grow and some of the
public sector’s current tasks are moved into the private
sector.
000s
900
800
Private
services
700
600
500
Public
services
400
300
200
Manufacturing
100
0
1991 1995
Source : GMFM
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Key export sectors
000s
400
Financial & business
services
350
300
250
200
150
100
Manufacturing
50
0
1991
1995
Source : GMFM
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Greater Manchester (continued)
Greater Manchester: Unemployment level and rate
Unemployment
(000s)
170
Many of the unemployed will struggle to return to the
labour market due to a mismatch of skills with the
needs of the labour market. Consequently,
unemployment is expected to remain above 68,000
within GM over the medium term at a level similar to
the late 1990’s. This is a reflection of the longer term
legacy of the recession and the sectoral nature of the
recovery. The introduction of welfare reform
measures could see employment rise even further.
A key uncertainty within the forecast is the pattern of
migration and how it reacts to the sluggish labour
market recovery. Unemployment could be higher, if
net migration continues at its recent record high level.
This will put further pressure of housing and public
services if this trend where to continue.
Unemployment rate
12.5
150
10.5
130
Unemployment
(LHS)
110
90
8.5
6.5
70
4.5
50
Unemployment
rate (RHS)
30
2.5
1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
Source : GMFM
Greater Manchester: Net migration and natural increase
20.0
Natural
increase
15.0
000s
10.0
5.0
Migration
0.0
1992
1996
-5.0
-10.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Natural increase continues to be the primary factor
underpinning the population forecast.
Greater Manchester forecasts
Population growth is stronger than the region as a
whole, due to the strong natural increase levels
(migration remains a slight outflow in the medium
term forecast).
The favourable sectoral composition and the areas
skills base underpin the stronger labour market
growth for GM than for the whole region.
Sectorally, business services will be key driver
growth. The direct manufacturing sector continues
to act as a drag on the labour market outlook,
though the loss is much more modest than in the
decade past. In GVA terms we expect the sector to
grow due to increases in productivity.
The public sectors are also expected to contact
over the decade ahead. However frontline services
such as education and health are expected to be
more insulated from job losses than other
elements of the public sector.
The resident employment rate is expected to
remain below the national average at around 70%
by 2020.
Greater Manchester: Key indicators
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
Greater Manchester
2012
2022
2667.8
2800.3
1129.5
1222.1
140.9
150.4
1270.4
1372.5
88.2
69.5
1096.5
1179.1
64.4
69.1
41.4
45.9
45628.3
58473.9
1160.5
1258.6
Change
North West
2012-22
2012-22
5.0 (%)
3.0 (%)
8.2 (%)
5.0 (%)
6.7 (%)
3.4 (%)
8.0 (%)
4.8 (%)
-18.7 (000s) -55.5 (000s)
82.5 (000s) 130.5 (000s)
4.7 (pp)
2.0 (pp)
4.5 (000s)
2.3 (% pa)
2.1 (% pa)
98.1 (000s)
-
Source: GMFM
Gr. Manchester: Change in employment (000s)
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution & hotels
Transport & communications
Finance & business services
Public admin. & defence
Education & health
Other personal services
Total employment
Selected sub-sectors
Retailing
Hotels & catering
Financial services
Professional business services
1998-2008
1.0
-0.1
-79.7
-4.1
18.0
1.6
13.6
86.2
10.3
44.8
17.0
109.5
2008-2012
0.4
-0.1
-11.2
6.0
-23.1
-7.9
-6.9
3.6
0.7
2.8
4.9
-31.0
2012-2022
-0.8
0.0
-22.5
-1.2
9.6
24.8
9.5
72.5
-5.5
3.2
12.6
102.1
9.7
5.0
9.6
14.1
-0.8
-2.2
-5.0
26.0
11.5
6.0
2.0
25.4
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
The public sector cuts widespread, resulting in problems for all
Local Public Services Employment
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Greater Manchester
2000-2010
2.0
3.9
16.5
5.3
4.0
0.2
4.2
6.0
1.8
3.9
47.9
2010-2015
-1.5
-1.5
-4.6
-1.3
-2.1
-1.6
-2.8
-1.7
-1.6
-1.9
-21.6
2015-2020
-0.1
0.3
1.9
0.6
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.4
4.5
Public services employment expanded significantly
over the last decade (a net increase of almost 50,000
jobs) and was a key source of employment growth for
many local areas.
The 2011 data suggest that the cuts are beginning to
filter through with almost 9,000 job losses reported in
GM. The contraction within the sector will slow the
recovery, with forecasts suggesting the lost of over
20,000 jobs over the five period of cuts. All districts
within the region are expected to be affected, with the
most severe impacts likely to be felt within
Manchester city itself.
Greater Manchester: public sector outlook
The forecasts suggest an end to the recent growth as
cuts are implemented, with job loss of around 22,000
expected within the area by 2015. However,
employment within the sector only reverts to its 2006
level (though a more severe contraction is a
possibility).
Job losses are spread across the three public
services sectors, within public admin and defence
expected to lose around 10,000 jobs, and education
and health 12,000 jobs.
Modest growth is likely to return to the sector in the
long run.
Greater Manchester: Public Services Employment
(000's)
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
1991
1995
Source : GMFM
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Summary local authority forecasts
Note: More detailed forecasts for each Local Authority are provided in the accompanying Excel
model outputs.
Note: Employment data for districts is available up to 2008 (indicated on charts with a solid line).
Regional data up to 2010 (indicated on charts with a dotted line) allows for a reasonable estimate
of district employment
Forecasts for districts - Bolton
Bolton: Employment outlook
Bolton: Key indicators
000s
Bolton
2012
2022
268.5
275.2
99.1
101.9
13.5
14.0
112.6
115.9
9.0
6.9
107.4
112.4
67.4
73.8
-7.4
-9.8
3513.4
4259.1
115.6
123.8
150
145
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
140
135
130
125
120
115
Change
2011-2021
2.5 (%)
2.9 (%)
3.0 (%)
2.9 (%)
-2 (000s)
5 (000s)
6.4 (pp)
-2.4 (000s)
1.8 (% pa)
8.2 (000s)
GM
2011-2021
5.0 (%)
8.2 (%)
6.7 (%)
8.0 (%)
-20 (000s)
82.5 (000s)
4.7 (pp)
4.5
2.3 (% pa)
-
Source: GMFM
110
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Bolton: Unemployment (000’s)
Source : GMFM
Employment is forecast to continue to contract into
2012 reaching a low of 112,600, almost 7,000 below
the 2008 level. Labour market growth is expected to
return in 2013, however, employment is not likely to
return to pre-recession levels.
10
000's
9
8
7
6
5
Unemployment remains an issue, with the current
rate estimated at 4.9% compared to 4.7% in GM
and 3.9% in the UK (August 2011).
4
3
2
1
Jul-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
Jul-09
Source : Nomis, claimant Count
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Mar-09
Nov-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
May-08
0
Jan-08
GVA growth over the period 2011-2021 is much
lower than GM rate (1.9% compared to 2.5%), as
the weaker labour market performance feeds into
output.
Mar-08
Forecasts for districts – Bolton (cont’d)
Bolton: Change in employment (000s)
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution & hotels
Transport & communications
Finance & business services
Public admin. & defence
Education & health
Other personal services
Total employment
Selected sub-sectors
Retailing
Hotels & catering
Financial services
Professional business services
1998-2008
0.0
0.0
-8.4
-1.2
2.1
-1.9
1.7
5.3
0.7
1.5
1.5
1.2
2008-2012
0.0
-0.1
-2.0
1.1
-1.6
-1.5
-1.0
-1.8
-0.8
-0.1
-0.1
-7.9
2012-2022
0.0
0.0
-2.3
-0.2
0.7
1.8
0.4
3.3
-0.5
-0.6
0.8
3.3
-1.3
-0.2
1.4
0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
1.2
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.6
The long term employment outlook is for jobs growth
of 3,300, driven by business services (3,300) and
distribution & hotels (1,800).
The manufacturing sector continues to act as a drag
on overall growth although a large number of
associated industrial services are captured in the
business services sector.
Population over the next decade is set to reach
almost 275,000 persons (an increase of 7,200
persons), driven by natural increases as net
migration continues to fall.
Net commuting will fall further over the next decade
as Bolton’s residents commute to other parts of the
region for employment, due to limited opportunities
within the district itself.
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
Bolton: Net migration and natural increase
2.0
Natural
increase
1.5
1.0
000s
0.5
0.0
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Source : GMFM
Migration
2020
Forecasts for districts - Bury
Bury: Employment outlook
Bury: Key indicators
000s
75
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
74
73
72
71
70
69
68
Bury
2012
185.5
60.1
11.1
71.2
4.9
80.1
71.4
-14.6
2281.6
79.8
2022
194.2
62.9
11.7
74.6
3.8
84.1
75.0
-15.7
2800.4
86.6
Change
2012-22
4.7 (%)
4.6 (%)
5.6 (%)
4.8 (%)
-1 (000s)
4.1 (000s)
3.7 (pp)
-1.1 (000s)
1.9 (% pa)
6.8 (000s)
GM
2012-22
5.0 (%)
8.2 (%)
6.7 (%)
8.0 (%)
-20 (000s)
82.5 (000s)
4.7 (pp)
4.5
2.3 (% pa)
-
Source: GMFM
67
1991 1995
1999
Source : GMFM
2003
2007
2011
2015
Bury: Unemployment (000’s)
2019
Employment is expected to continue to fall in the
short run, with growth expected to return in 2014.
The outlook is for employment to increase by 4.2%
over the next decade, reaching pre-recession levels
by 2017.
000's
6
5
4
3
Unemployment , at 3.9%, remains high compared to
pre-recession levels but is significantly below the GM
average of 4.7%.
2
1
Average GVA growth is forecast at a modest 2.0%
per annum, significantly below the GM average.
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
0
Source : NOMIS, claimant count
Forecasts for districts – Bury (cont’d)
Bury: Change in employment (000s)
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution & hotels
Transport & communications
Finance & business services
Public admin. & defence
Education & health
Other personal services
Total employment
Selected sub-sectors
Retailing
Hotels & catering
Financial services
Professional business services
1998-2008
0.0
0.0
-6.3
0.0
-0.3
-0.4
2.0
1.1
0.9
5.4
1.7
4.1
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.6
-0.1
1.6
-1.1
-0.1
-0.5
-1.3
2012-2022
-0.1
0.0
-1.5
0.0
0.4
1.4
0.6
1.7
-0.1
0.0
0.9
3.4
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.2
0.2
-0.3
0.1
1.0
0.7
0.3
-0.1
0.5
The long term outlook is for employment to increase by
almost 3,500 over the next decade. Growth is
dependent upon two sectors- business services and
distribution & hotels (particularly retail). Retail growth
should be bolstered by the redevelopments within Bury
town centre.
Manufacturing is forecast to continue losing jobs and
act as a drag on growth. Bury also has the highest
proportion of public sector employment in GM and
there is a downside risk that the forecast job losses
over 2011-2015 within public admin & defence and
education & health will be higher.
Population is forecast to increase by 4.7% over the
next decade, driven by natural increase as net
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
Bury: Net migration and natural increase
1.0
0.8
migration falls and remains close to zero up to 2021.
Natural
increase
0.6
0.4
000s
0.2
0.0
1992
-0.2
Migration
1996
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Forecasts for districts - Manchester
Manchester: Employment outlook
Manchester: Key indicators
000s
390
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
370
350
330
310
290
270
Manchester
2012
2022
516.5
566.6
308.7
347.8
23.8
26.2
332.6
374.0
21.0
17.8
201.4
225.1
55.4
60.0
92.4
104.7
13300.8
17713.3
222.7
247.3
Change
2012-22
9.7 (%)
12.7 (%)
10.0 (%)
12.5 (%)
-3.2 (000s)
23.7 (000s)
4.7 (pp)
12.3 (000s)
2.7 (% pa)
24.6 (000s)
GM
2012-22
5.0 (%)
8.2 (%)
6.7 (%)
8.0 (%)
-20 (000s)
82.5 (000s)
4.7 (pp)
4.5
2.3 (% pa)
-
Source: GMFM
250
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Source : GMFM
Employment growth is expected to in return in 2011,
with the district returning to pre-recession
employment levels (Note: estimates suggest that
only 1,000 jobs were lost within the City between 0810).
Over 2012-2022 employment in Manchester is
forecast to increase by 13,000 jobs. Net commuting
over the same period is also expected to increase
as jobs are created in the city centre as people
commute in from other parts of the region for work.
000's
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Employment rates are forecast to rise over the next
decade but remain very low at 60% - the lowest of
all GM districts, partly due to a large proportion of
students
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Manchester: Unemployment (000’s)
Source : Nomis, claimant count
Forecasts for districts – Manchester (cont’d)
Manchester: Change in employment (000s)
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution & hotels
Transport & communications
Finance & business services
Public admin. & defence
Education & health
Other personal services
Total employment
Selected sub-sectors
Retailing
Hotels & catering
Financial services
Professional business services
1998-2008
0.1
0.0
-9.4
-0.7
-2.9
-2.1
2.8
30.7
5.2
12.8
5.4
42.2
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-1.7
0.0
0.0
3.0
-0.6
-1.1
-0.7
3.7
1.8
4.2
2012-2022
0.0
0.0
-2.7
0.0
0.5
7.8
4.5
27.1
-2.4
2.8
3.8
41.4
-1.0
4.0
4.9
6.3
1.0
1.4
-2.8
12.4
3.6
3.0
1.1
14.5
The business services sector remains crucial to
economic recovery and jobs growth in Manchester.
Though this poses a significant downward risk given
that there is some evidence across the UK that the
urban renaissance of core cities was beginning to
lose pace before the recession.
Manchester is forecast to lose 2,400 jobs in public
administration over 2012-2022. However the city is
expected to be less effected than other core cities
which host more central government activities (such
as Liverpool and Newcastle).
Welfare reform will affect the city, which has the 5th
highest welfare per capita bill of the major cities and
the recent riots highlighted that high levels of poverty
and worklessness (coupled with demographic
pressures) could adversely impact on the city’s
attractiveness and reputation.
The migration data shows little evidence of the
recession impact on Manchester’s international in
and out migration in 2010. It is questionable in
particular whether the outflow of students are being
fully recorded (especially international students). But
even if overstated the data suggests an attraction of
Manchester ‘beyond the economics’ much as is the
case with London. In the long term population will be
driven by natural increases as net migration falls.
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
Manchester: Net migration and natural increase
12.0
10.0
8.0
Natural
increase
000s
6.0
4.0
2.0
Migration
0.0
1992
-2.0
1996
-4.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Forecasts for districts - Oldham
Oldham: Employment outlook
Oldham: Key indicators
000s
96
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
Oldham
2012
2022
221.1
227.6
72.8
76.0
10.4
11.0
83.2
87.0
8.0
6.3
82.9
88.0
63.1
66.9
-4.2
-6.0
2462.8
3026.9
92.4
97.8
Change
2012-22
2.9 (%)
4.4 (%)
5.1 (%)
4.5 (%)
-1.8 (000s)
5.1 (000s)
3.8 (pp)
-1.8 (000s)
1.9 (% pa)
5.5 (000s)
GM
2012-22
5.0 (%)
8.2 (%)
6.7 (%)
8.0 (%)
-20 (000s)
82.5 (000s)
4.7 (pp)
4.5
2.3 (% pa)
-
Source: GMFM
80
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Oldham: Unemployment (000’s)
Source : GMFM
Employment is forecast to continue to contract in the
short run. We expect total job losses between 2008-12
to be around 4,000 jobs. It is unlikely that employment
within Oldham will revert back to pre-recession levels
given the sectoral nature of the recovery.
000's
8
7
6
5
4
Unemployment remains high at 5.5%, the 2nd highest
within GM, and is forecast to remain above 5% until
2017.
3
2
1
GVA is forecast to grow by 2% per annum over 20112021, significantly lower than the GM rate of 2.5% due
to the sectoral composition and sluggish labour market
performance.
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
0
Source : Nomis, claimant count
Forecasts for districts – Oldham (cont’d)
Oldham: Change in employment (000s)
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution & hotels
Transport & communications
Finance & business services
Public admin. & defence
Education & health
Other personal services
Total employment
Selected sub-sectors
Retailing
Hotels & catering
Financial services
Professional business services
1998-2008
0.1
0.0
-12.6
0.1
1.0
-0.4
0.3
4.5
0.7
5.6
1.0
0.4
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.3
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.1
-4.4
2012-2022
0.0
0.0
-2.7
0.0
0.6
1.7
0.3
2.9
-0.1
0.5
0.6
3.8
The long term employment outlook suggests an
increase of around 3,800 jobs over the next decade,
largely driven by business services (2,900) and
distribution & hotels (1,700).
The long term decline of the manufacturing sector will
continue to act as a drag on growth although the job
losses are much lower than in the previous decade.
2.3
-0.8
-0.7
0.4
-0.1
-0.4
0.2
0.5
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.4
The population outlook is driven by natural increase
and we expect population to reach 230,000 by 2028.
The rate of out commuting is set to increase as
residents access employment opportunities outside
the district.
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
Oldham: Net migration and natural increase
Natural
increase
2.0
1.5
1.0
000s
0.5
0.0
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
-0.5
Migration
-1.0
-1.5
Source : GMFM
2020
Forecasts for districts - Rochdale
Rochdale: Employment outlook
Rochdale: Key indicators
000s
95
93
79
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
77
Source: GMFM
91
89
87
85
83
81
Rochdale
2012
2022
206.2
210.3
71.3
74.2
11.7
12.4
83.1
86.6
8.2
5.5
77.2
81.9
62.5
67.9
-0.3
-2.0
2736.7
3388.2
87.5
92.2
Change
2012-22
2.0 (%)
4.0 (%)
5.4 (%)
4.2 (%)
-2.7 (000s)
4.8 (000s)
5.4 (pp)
-1.7 (000s)
2.0 (% pa)
4.8 (000s)
GM
2012-22
5.0 (%)
8.2 (%)
6.7 (%)
8.0 (%)
-20 (000s)
82.5 (000s)
4.7 (pp)
4.5
2.3 (% pa)
-
75
1991 1995
Source : GMFM
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Employment is forecast to continue to contract in the
short run. We expect total job losses between 200812 to be around 2,000 jobs. It is not likely that
employment within Rochdale will return to the
employment high of 2007 over the entire forecast.
Rochdale: Unemployment (000’s)
000's
9
8
7
6
Labour market conditions remain challenging in the
short term with unemployment currently at 5.8%, the
highest level in GM. The employment rate remains
comparatively low and the level of out commuting is
expected to increase over the forecast.
GVA growth is low compared to the rate for GM given
the labour market conditions.
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Source : Nomis, claimant count
Forecasts for districts – Rochdale (cont’d)
Rochdale: change in employment (000s)
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution & hotels
Transport & communications
Finance & business services
Public admin. & defence
Education & health
Other personal services
Total employment
Selected sub-sectors
Retailing
Hotels & catering
Financial services
Professional business services
1998-2008
0.0
0.0
-6.0
0.0
0.6
-0.6
2.8
4.5
1.4
0.3
0.6
3.7
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-2.1
0.0
1.4
-1.8
-0.4
-1.2
1.6
0.1
0.2
-2.1
2012-2022
-0.1
0.0
-2.1
0.0
0.8
1.3
1.0
3.0
-0.6
-0.3
0.5
3.5
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
0.8
-0.3
-0.7
-0.1
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.0
0.6
Source: GMFM
The outlook is for modest employment growth of
3,500 jobs over the decade ahead. At 3.4% per
annum the growth rate is considerably lower than the
GM average (7.5%).
Long term decline in the manufacturing sector (in
employment terms) is forecast to continue with the
loss of 2,100 jobs over the next decade. The majority
of jobs growth in the business services, distribution &
hotels and transport & communications sectors.
The importance of distribution and logistics to the
district is illustrated by Kingsway Business Park’s
announcement of a number of new (and intended)
occupiers including ASDA’s plan to build a state of
the art distribution centre, creating 800 jobs.
Investments on this scale could stimulate further
business interest in the site.
Net migration, at -600 in 2011, is forecast to remain
fairly stable over the next decade but natural increase
levels are more than high enough to offset the
outflow and thus the population is still expected to
grow, albeit at a lesser rate than the wider GM region
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
Rochdale: Net migration and natural increase
Natural
increase
1.5
1.0
000s
0.5
0.0
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Source : GMFM
Migration
2020
Forecasts for districts - Salford
Salford: Employment outlook
Salford: Key indicators in Salford
000s
145
140
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
Change
2012-22
8.2 (%)
13.6 (%)
11.7 (%)
13.4 (%)
-1.2 (000s)
10.6 (000s)
4.0 (pp)
3.8 (000s)
2.8 (% pa)
8.9 (000s)
Source: GMFM
100
1991 1995
Source : GMFM
Salford
2012
2022
233.8
253.0
112.4
127.6
11.2
12.5
123.6
140.2
8.5
7.2
99.5
110.2
65.8
69.7
10.0
13.8
4299.2
5800.3
102.8
111.7
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Employment is estimated to have fallen by 5,100 jobs
between 2008-2012, with growth expected to return in
2012.
Salford: Unemployment (000’s)
000's
9
8
Unemployment has been gradually increasing over the last
year and is approaching the high experienced at the end of
2009. The rate is forecast to remain at 5% or above until
2017 and is likely to remain relatively high in the long run.
7
6
5
4
3
2
The outlook is fairly positive with employment growth of
13,100 jobs expected and GVA growth of 3.0% per annum,
the highest of all GM districts. Employment is forecast to
return to the pre-recession level by 2014.
1
0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Source : Nomis, claimant count
GM
2012-22
5.0 (%)
8.2 (%)
6.7 (%)
8.0 (%)
-20 (000s)
82.5 (000s)
4.7 (pp)
4.5
2.3 (% pa)
-
Forecasts for districts – Salford (cont’d)
Salford: Change in employment (000s)
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution & hotels
Transport & communications
Finance & business services
Public admin. & defence
Education & health
Other personal services
Total employment
Selected sub-sectors
Retailing
Hotels & catering
Financial services
Professional business services
1998-2008
-0.2
-0.1
-7.4
-0.1
2.4
1.2
1.6
14.1
-0.4
7.0
0.4
18.6
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-0.1
-2.2
0.7
-0.6
0.1
-0.4
-2.3
0.8
-5.0
2012-2022
-0.1
0.0
-1.4
0.0
1.6
2.5
0.9
10.8
-0.3
1.2
1.3
16.6
0.5
2.2
4.3
1.4
0.7
-0.2
-1.5
2.3
1.0
0.7
0.6
2.9
Salford’s employment growth prospects are
dependent upon the business services sector which
accounts for 64% of net employment growth over
the period 2012-2022. The completion of MediaCity
and the relocation of the BBC will be an important
driver of the sector. In total 2,300 BBC jobs are
expected to move to the area, of which c.800 have
already relocated.
The public sector job losses have been revised
downwards although some growth is still anticipated
in education and health post 2015.
Similar to Manchester, the migration figures for
Salford for 2010 are high compared to the long term
forecast which sees natural increase provide the
growth in population. It will be important to compare
the current estimate with the 2011 Census results
when they become available.
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
Salford: Net migration and natural increase
3.0
Natural
increase
2.0
Migration
000s
1.0
0.0
1992
1996
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Forecasts for districts - Stockport
Stockport: Employment outlook
Stockport: Key indicators
000s
152
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
147
142
137
132
Stockport
2012
2022
286.7
293.2
117.1
124.1
19.5
20.9
136.6
145.0
6.4
5.2
126.6
134.8
73.6
79.0
-3.5
-4.2
5037.2
6318.7
127.6
137.0
Change
2012-22
2.3 (%)
5.9 (%)
7.3 (%)
6.1 (%)
-1.3 (000s)
8.2 (000s)
5.4 (pp)
-0.8 (000s)
2.1 (% pa)
9.5 (000s)
GM
2012-22
5.0 (%)
8.2 (%)
6.7 (%)
8.0 (%)
-20 (000s)
82.5 (000s)
4.7 (pp)
4.5
2.3 (% pa)
-
Source: GMFM
127
1991 1995
Source : GMFM
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
The short-run labour market outlook is for continued
contraction within Stockport – we estimate total job
losses of 12,000 over the period 2008-2012.
Stockport: Unemployment (000’s)
000's
8
7
6
Unemployment remains high compared to historical lows
but at 3.4% is the lowest of all GM districts, a position
shared with Trafford.
5
4
3
2
The resident employment rate remains the
highest in
GM and is expected to continue to rise over the forecast
period.
1
0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
2nd
Source : Nomis, claimant count
Forecasts for districts – Stockport (cont’d)
Stockport: Change in employment (000s)
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution & hotels
Transport & communications
Finance & business services
Public admin. & defence
Education & health
Other personal services
Total employment
Selected sub-sectors
Retailing
Hotels & catering
Financial services
Professional business services
1998-2008
0.3
0.0
-6.7
-0.8
11.3
-2.8
3.0
9.5
1.7
2.7
1.0
19.2
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-1.9
3.1
-11.0
-2.5
-2.5
0.7
0.9
-0.8
1.2
-12.7
2012-2022
-0.1
0.0
-2.7
-0.5
2.5
2.1
0.5
6.7
-0.4
-0.7
1.1
8.4
0.9
-0.5
1.3
1.8
-0.9
-0.5
-0.4
2.6
0.9
0.3
0.2
1.4
As at a GM level the majority of employment growth over the
next decade in Stockport is within business services. This
encompasses a range of services, including many ‘manuservices’ present in Stockport. Employment growth in
distribution & hotels is also significant representing the
significant retail amenities within the borough.
Stockport, as one of the larger districts in population terms,
has historically had a negative level of net commuting. The
level of commuting is expected to accelerate over the
forecast period as residents access employment
opportunities within the conurbation (particularly
Manchester) or outside GM.
Natural increase will continue to drive population growth in
the future as net migration falls to around zero by 2016.
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
Stockport: Net migration and natural increase
Natural
increase
1.0
0.5
000s
0.0
1992
1996
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
Migration
2020
Forecasts for districts - Tameside
Tameside: Employment outlook
Tameside: Key indicators
000s
93
91
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
89
87
85
83
81
79
77
Tameside
2012
2022
219.2
230.5
67.8
68.8
11.4
11.7
79.3
80.5
7.2
5.5
92.2
95.4
68.8
71.0
-16.9
-19.1
2738.2
3284.4
97.4
106.7
Change
2012-22
5.1 (%)
1.4 (%)
2.6 (%)
1.6 (%)
-1.7 (000s)
3.2 (000s)
2.1 (pp)
-2.2 (000s)
1.7 (% pa)
9.3 (000s)
Source: GMFM
75
1991 1995
1999
Source : GMFM
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Employment in Tameside continues to contract in the short run
with labour market expansion expected to return in 2013.
Tameside: Unemployment (000’s)
000's
8
7
The long term outlook for Tameside is very challenging with
employment in 2022 remaining around 2,100 jobs below the
2007 peak. This is due to the sectoral nature of the recovery
with no expansion within the public sector (a key source of
growth over the last decade).
6
5
4
3
2
1
Unemployment remains high at 4.8% (6,800 persons) and is
expected to remain close to 5% until 2014. In the longer run, no
return to historical pre-recession lows is forecast.
0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Source : Nomis, claimant count
GM
2012-22
5.0 (%)
8.2 (%)
6.7 (%)
8.0 (%)
-20 (000s)
82.5 (000s)
4.7 (pp)
4.5
2.3 (% pa)
-
Forecasts for districts – Tameside (cont’d)
Tameside: Change in employment (000s)
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution & hotels
Transport & communications
Finance & business services
Public admin. & defence
Education & health
Other personal services
Total employment
Selected sub-sectors
Retailing
Hotels & catering
Financial services
Professional business services
1998-2008
0.2
0.0
-8.3
-0.8
0.7
1.8
0.7
0.9
0.4
3.8
0.9
0.4
2008-2012
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.6
-2.0
-0.7
-0.1
0.5
1.2
0.2
0.4
0.0
2012-2022
-0.1
0.0
-2.6
-0.1
0.4
1.7
0.2
1.3
-0.3
0.0
0.8
1.3
1.8
-0.9
-0.7
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.6
0.8
0.2
-0.1
0.2
The sluggish employment outlook is driven by the
continued decline in manufacturing and public sector
employment , collectively accounting for 2,600 job
losses between 2012 and 2022.
The outlook is for only 1,300 additional net jobs over
the decade ahead. With growth in other sectors such
as distribution & hotels (1,700 jobs) and finance &
business services (1,300 jobs) likely to simply
compensate for within manufacturing and public
services job losses
Consequently, GVA growth is expected to remain the
slowest within Greater Manchester at 1.8% due to
limited employment opportunities and the sectoral
outlook.
Over the period net commuting is expected to increase
by 2,300 persons as residents look for employment
opportunities elsewhere. Population is forecast to
grow by 5.4% over the period, driven largely by natural
increase.
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
Tameside: Net migration and natural increase
Natural
increase
1.5
1.0
000s
0.5
0.0
1992
1996
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012Migration
2016
2020
Forecasts for districts - Trafford
Trafford: Employment outlook
Trafford: Key indicators
000s
155
150
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
Trafford
2012
2022
220.2
229.0
124.5
138.0
13.4
14.5
137.9
152.5
5.0
4.2
100.4
110.3
75.5
83.3
11.6
12.5
5667.8
7435.2
98.1
106.8
Change
2012-22
4.0 (%)
10.9 (%)
8.3 (%)
10.6 (%)
-0.8 (000s)
10 (000s)
7.8 (pp)
1 (000s)
2.6 (% pa)
8.7 (000s)
Source: GMFM
110
1991 1995
Source : GMFM
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Employment levels are expected to remain fairly stable
in the short run, with growth returning in 2012.
Recession job losses are expected to be regained by
2013. Employment within the district will reach 150,000
by 2018 and continue to grow in the long run.
Trafford: Unemployment (000’s)
000's
6
5
4
3
Unemployment has remained around the 4,500 level
since 2009 and the recent rise is not as apparent within
Trafford as within other GM districts.
2
1
GVA is forecast to grow by 2.8% per annum over 20112021 which is the third highest of GM districts. This is
largely due to the sectoral composition of the labour
market forecast.
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
0
Source : Nomis, claimant count
GM
2012-22
5.0 (%)
8.2 (%)
6.7 (%)
8.0 (%)
-20 (000s)
82.5 (000s)
4.7 (pp)
4.5
2.3 (% pa)
-
Forecasts for districts – Trafford (cont’d)
Trafford: Change in employment (000s)
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution & hotels
Transport & communications
Finance & business services
Public admin. & defence
Education & health
Other personal services
Total employment
Selected sub-sectors
Retailing
Hotels & catering
Financial services
Professional business services
1998-2008
0.1
0.0
-6.7
-0.7
1.8
5.7
-3.0
9.5
0.9
2.4
2.8
12.7
2008-2012
0.0
0.0
-0.6
1.5
-2.2
-2.1
-0.2
2.8
0.4
0.3
0.9
0.7
2012-2022
-0.1
0.0
-2.1
-0.3
1.2
2.6
0.8
11.1
-0.4
0.0
1.7
14.6
5.3
1.0
-0.2
2.5
-0.5
-0.8
0.3
3.4
1.3
0.4
0.1
3.1
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Employment growth in Trafford is forecast at 14,600
jobs over the next decade, representing over 15% of
the GM total job growth.
The business services sector will be the key driver of
jobs growth as the manufacturing sector continues to
decline (in employment terms). However this sector
captures the professional services exports present in
the district (particularly at Trafford Park), increasingly
termed ‘manu-services’.
Public services is not a significant employer within
the district, and thus only be a slight decline over of
600 jobs is expected over the decade ahead.
The distribution & hotels sector will also be a key
source of growth, although at a lower level than the
2010 report due to lower consumer confidence.
Net commuting is positive into Trafford with major
employment sites such as the Trafford Centre and
Trafford Park attracting employees from across the
conurbation and outside of GM.
Net migration is forecast to fall over coming years
and remain fairly stable (although positive) by 2020 .
Natural increase will remain as the key contributor to
population growth.
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
Trafford: Net migration and natural increase
1.5
Natural
increase
1.0
Migration
000s
0.5
0.0
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Source : GMFM
Forecasts for districts - Wigan
Wigan: Employment outlook
Wigan: Key indicators
000s
120
118
Population
Employees total
Self employed total
Employment total
Unemployment level
Residence based employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
GVA total, £m
Households
116
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
Wigan
2012
2022
310.1
320.7
95.6
100.8
14.8
15.5
110.4
116.2
9.9
7.0
128.9
136.8
68.5
73.8
-25.7
-28.2
3590.7
4447.4
136.6
148.6
Change
2012-22
3.4 (%)
5.4 (%)
4.7 (%)
5.3 (%)
-2.9 (000s)
7.9 (000s)
5.3 (pp)
-2.5 (000s)
2.0 (% pa)
12 (000s)
Source: GMFM
100
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
According to the BRES data Wigan was the only GM area
to escape the 2008 and 2009 job losses. However, our
estimates suggest job loss between 2010-2012, with
labour market growth returning in to 2013. The longer
term outlook is for employment growth of 4.8% over the
next decade although a return to pre-recession levels is
not expected by the end of the period.
Unemployment remains historically high at 4.6% although
on par with the GM rate.
GVA growth at 2.1% per annum over 2011-2021 is lower
than the GM average (2.5%) due to the district’s sectoral
composition.
Wigan: Unemployment (000’s)
000's
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
1991 1995
Source : GMFM
Source : Nomis, claimant count
GM
2012-22
5.0 (%)
8.2 (%)
6.7 (%)
8.0 (%)
-20 (000s)
82.5 (000s)
4.7 (pp)
4.5
2.3 (% pa)
-
Forecasts for districts – Wigan (cont’d)
Wigan: Change in employment (000s)
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution & hotels
Transport & communications
Finance & business services
Public admin. & defence
Education & health
Other personal services
Total employment
Selected sub-sectors
Retailing
Hotels & catering
Financial services
Professional business services
1998-2008
0.5
0.0
-7.8
0.1
1.2
1.0
1.7
6.0
-1.0
3.4
1.7
7.0
2008-2012
0.1
0.0
-1.0
-0.2
-3.4
-1.4
-1.6
2.8
-0.1
2.1
0.4
-2.3
2012-2022
-0.2
0.0
-2.4
0.0
0.8
1.9
0.4
4.4
-0.4
0.3
1.1
5.9
0.9
-0.2
-0.4
0.6
-0.4
-0.2
-0.1
1.5
1.0
0.3
0.0
1.0
The short term outlook employment is forecast to
grow by almost 6,000 jobs over 2012-2021 driven
by business services (4,400) and distribution &
hotels (1,900). The manufacturing sector will
continue to act as a drag on labour market growth
with the overall level of jobs falling to below 10,000
by 2027.
With domestic demand likely to remain subdued in
the short run, the economy will be reliant on net
trade to drive the recovery forwards. This will
largely depend upon the global recovery driving
export demand within the manufacturing and
financial and business services are key sectors
within the recovery.
Population is forecast to increase by 3.6% over the
next decade, driven largely by natural increases.
Although the rate of natural increase is set to
decline towards the end of the period.
Source: GMFM
Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees
Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only
Wigan: Net migration and natural increase
1.5
Natural
increase
1.0
0.5
000s
Migration
0.0
1992
1996
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Source : GMFM
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Annex A: Summary tables
Note: Below is a selection from the detailed forecasts provided to
each Local Authority in the accompanying Excel model outputs.
Summary tables - Bolton
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
262.9
164.9
-0.9
263.0
164.3
-0.9
263.8
163.9
-0.4
265.1
163.8
-0.1
266.5
163.7
0.0
267.6
163.3
-0.2
268.5
162.6
-0.4
269.4
162.0
-0.4
270.2
161.3
-0.5
270.9
160.6
-0.5
271.6
159.8
-0.6
272.3
159.0
-0.6
273.0
158.3
-0.6
275.2
155.3
-0.6
276.6
151.9
-0.6
276.7
148.8
-0.6
105.8
13.3
119.1
104.8
114.8
71.2
-10.1
4.5
2.8
106.5
13.9
120.4
105.8
114.4
71.2
-8.6
4.3
2.6
106.4
14.1
120.5
107.2
114.8
71.6
-7.6
4.8
2.9
103.2
14.1
117.3
104.1
110.1
68.7
-6.0
7.9
4.8
100.7
14.4
115.1
102.2
109.0
68.0
-6.8
7.6
4.7
99.8
13.7
113.5
100.7
107.9
67.5
-7.2
8.5
5.2
99.1
13.5
112.6
99.9
107.4
67.4
-7.4
9.0
5.5
99.6
13.7
113.3
100.5
108.2
68.2
-7.7
8.8
5.4
100.5
13.8
114.3
101.4
109.3
69.2
-7.9
8.4
5.2
101.2
13.9
115.1
102.1
110.3
70.0
-8.2
8.1
5.0
101.7
13.9
115.7
102.6
111.0
70.8
-8.4
7.7
4.8
102.1
13.9
116.1
102.9
111.6
71.5
-8.7
7.3
4.6
102.3
13.9
116.2
103.0
112.0
72.1
-8.9
6.9
4.4
101.9
14.0
115.9
102.6
112.4
73.8
-9.8
6.9
4.5
100.9
13.9
114.8
101.4
112.3
75.4
-10.9
7.1
4.7
99.8
13.8
113.6
100.2
112.1
76.9
-11.9
7.3
4.9
3561
91.9
3523
88.3
3555
87.8
3425
89.9
3449
90.2
3482
90.2
3513
90.0
3597
89.8
3682
89.7
3763
89.6
3838
89.5
3909
89.3
3979
89.3
4259
89.0
4608
88.7
4973
88.6
111
117088
112
117867
112
119254
113
118800
114
119170
115
119523
116
120549
117
121482
117
122429
118
123362
119
124260
120
125135
121
125991
124
129278
127
133146
131
136781
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.4
-0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.5
0.5
-0.1
0.3
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.4
-0.3
-0.2
0.3
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
-0.4
0.0
0.3
-0.4
-0.1
0.3
-0.4
0.0
0.3
-0.5
0.0
0.2
-0.5
0.0
0.2
-0.5
0.0
0.2
-0.5
0.0
0.1
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0
-3.8
-3.2
-3.7
-4.6
-0.7
-0.5
-4.3
11.8
0.3
0.7
4.7
1.1
1.0
-0.3
0.0
1.4
-5.9
-0.2
-0.1
1.8
0.1
1.3
0.3
0.4
1.1
12.4
0.3
-3.0
-0.4
-2.7
-3.0
-4.1
-2.9
1.5
64.9
1.9
-2.4
1.9
-1.9
-1.8
-1.0
-0.7
-0.8
-3.7
-0.2
-0.9
-4.7
-1.4
-1.4
-1.0
-0.5
-0.4
11.0
0.5
-0.7
-1.0
-0.8
-0.8
-0.5
-0.1
-0.2
6.1
0.3
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.8
-0.2
-1.8
-0.1
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
-0.2
-5.0
-0.2
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.9
0.9
-0.2
-3.8
-0.2
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.8
-0.3
-4.0
-0.2
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.7
-0.3
-6.2
-0.3
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.6
-0.2
-4.3
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.5
-0.2
-0.9
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.4
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.7
0.1
-4.2
-0.7
-1.1
-3.6
0.9
-0.5
-3.7
2.1
0.7
0.3
1.0
-0.1
0.9
-0.2
2.4
-0.1
2.4
-0.1
2.2
-0.1
2.0
-0.2
1.8
-0.1
1.8
-0.1
1.7
-0.1
1.6
0.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.7
0.4
1.2
0.7
-0.4
0.8
0.3
0.9
0.3
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Bolton (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
3.0
1.8
0.2
1.8
0.0
0.8
1.6
0.3
1.7
1.3
1.3
0.9
1.5
0.3
6.7
8.4
12.4
5.6
4.1
3.3
15.4
7.9
8.1
12.7
4.3
105.8
2.9
1.2
0.2
1.7
0.0
0.8
1.8
0.3
1.9
1.2
1.5
0.8
1.6
0.3
7.1
8.8
12.5
6.0
4.2
3.6
15.4
5.5
8.9
13.3
4.5
106.5
2.7
0.9
0.1
1.5
0.0
0.6
1.7
0.2
1.7
1.1
1.7
0.7
1.5
0.2
6.3
8.3
12.3
5.5
5.8
3.8
15.4
5.9
9.5
13.3
5.1
106.4
2.7
0.9
0.3
1.3
0.0
0.8
1.1
0.2
1.5
1.2
1.4
0.7
1.4
1.2
6.2
7.6
12.2
5.6
4.9
3.4
14.7
5.5
9.1
14.3
4.9
103.2
2.7
0.9
0.3
1.2
0.0
0.6
1.2
0.2
1.4
1.0
1.3
0.6
1.4
1.3
5.4
7.8
12.2
5.2
4.8
3.1
13.8
5.6
9.2
14.2
5.0
100.7
2.7
0.8
0.3
1.3
0.0
0.6
1.2
0.2
1.3
1.0
1.3
0.6
1.5
1.3
5.0
7.8
12.0
5.1
4.8
3.1
14.2
5.2
9.2
13.6
5.3
99.8
2.7
0.8
0.3
1.2
0.0
0.6
1.3
0.2
1.3
1.0
1.3
0.6
1.5
1.3
5.1
7.9
12.0
5.1
4.9
3.1
14.3
5.1
9.0
13.4
5.1
99.1
2.7
0.7
0.3
1.2
0.0
0.6
1.3
0.2
1.3
1.0
1.3
0.7
1.4
1.3
5.2
8.0
12.1
5.1
4.9
3.2
14.8
4.9
8.9
13.3
5.2
99.6
2.7
0.7
0.3
1.1
0.0
0.6
1.3
0.2
1.3
1.0
1.3
0.7
1.4
1.2
5.3
8.1
12.3
5.2
5.0
3.2
15.5
4.8
8.7
13.2
5.3
100.5
2.6
0.6
0.3
1.1
0.0
0.6
1.4
0.2
1.2
0.9
1.3
0.6
1.4
1.2
5.3
8.2
12.5
5.3
5.1
3.2
16.0
4.7
8.6
13.2
5.4
101.2
2.6
0.6
0.3
1.1
0.0
0.6
1.4
0.2
1.2
0.9
1.3
0.6
1.4
1.2
5.4
8.2
12.6
5.3
5.1
3.3
16.4
4.7
8.6
13.2
5.5
101.7
2.5
0.5
0.3
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.4
0.2
1.2
0.9
1.3
0.6
1.4
1.2
5.5
8.3
12.7
5.3
5.2
3.3
16.8
4.7
8.5
13.2
5.6
102.1
2.5
0.5
0.3
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.4
0.2
1.1
0.8
1.3
0.6
1.4
1.1
5.5
8.3
12.8
5.4
5.2
3.3
17.0
4.7
8.5
13.2
5.6
102.3
2.3
0.3
0.2
0.9
0.0
0.5
1.4
0.2
1.0
0.7
1.2
0.5
1.4
1.1
5.6
8.3
12.8
5.3
5.2
3.3
17.3
4.6
8.4
13.4
5.7
101.9
2.1
0.2
0.2
0.7
0.0
0.4
1.4
0.2
0.8
0.5
1.1
0.5
1.3
1.0
5.6
8.3
12.7
5.3
5.1
3.4
17.7
4.6
8.3
13.5
5.7
100.9
1.9
0.1
0.2
0.6
0.0
0.4
1.3
0.2
0.7
0.4
1.0
0.4
1.3
0.9
5.7
8.2
12.6
5.2
5.0
3.5
18.0
4.5
8.2
13.6
5.7
99.8
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
14.7
-7.0
-23.9
190.3
7.8
-30.1
-14.7
39.6
26.6
-80.0
-15.7
-13.0
1.7
-4.5
-0.9
-2.8
-1.0
-3.0
-1.3
-3.2
-1.2
-3.2
-1.1
-3.0
-1.1
-2.9
-1.4
-3.2
-1.4
-3.6
-1.5
-3.8
11.2
-3.0
28.2
8.5
0.0
-3.7
9.8
10.8
-6.9
-14.2
-4.1
30.5
14.2
-27.4
4.7
-1.1
-8.8
-6.2
5.9
1.6
5.8
-37.1
-6.6
10.9
-8.6
-3.8
-1.7
-32.1
5.7
-8.6
0.0
10.1
12.0
9.2
12.5
-7.8
11.2
-9.9
3.1
-11.5
5.7
4.5
1.2
8.4
2.7
8.6
0.1
-30.4
10.2
5.0
3.0
0.7
-7.1
-24.3
-37.3
-12.8
0.0
-23.4
-9.5
-25.7
-10.3
-9.4
17.0
-12.3
-6.8
-38.3
-10.8
-5.9
-1.5
-8.8
38.5
6.1
0.2
7.4
6.7
-0.1
15.0
-0.1
-1.3
-7.2
113.0
-10.5
102.6
19.0
-32.5
-25.5
-11.1
11.4
-18.0
-4.1
-4.2
553.7
-2.9
-8.1
-1.4
2.4
-16.5
-11.6
-4.7
-7.5
-4.3
7.1
-3.9
-3.0
0.3
-1.2
-4.1
-5.4
-19.9
-15.5
5.6
3.7
-7.5
-16.3
-8.1
-7.1
2.4
9.2
-12.1
2.9
0.7
-7.1
-1.2
-9.5
-6.4
2.0
1.5
-0.9
1.7
-2.4
-0.3
-2.6
0.7
3.5
7.8
-6.7
2.0
7.5
-2.9
0.2
3.6
0.0
1.6
5.5
-8.0
-0.3
-2.4
-2.5
0.5
2.4
3.4
-6.2
-0.4
-3.8
4.9
-0.9
-0.1
-8.3
-2.3
-7.7
-3.5
-2.3
4.4
0.1
-1.1
-2.5
-0.8
0.7
-0.2
-3.9
1.7
0.6
0.2
-0.7
0.4
-0.3
0.4
-2.3
-1.8
-1.7
-2.8
-0.7
-0.4
-6.8
-0.1
-2.4
-1.9
-1.2
3.0
3.3
-2.0
-2.0
-0.4
0.2
-0.2
-1.9
1.7
1.3
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.8
3.8
-3.6
-1.8
-0.8
1.3
0.6
-1.2
-7.5
0.3
-2.9
-2.2
-1.6
3.6
3.7
-2.6
-2.3
-0.7
0.6
-0.5
-1.9
2.1
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.6
1.4
4.4
-2.3
-1.7
-0.6
1.9
0.9
-1.5
-7.7
-0.7
-3.1
-2.2
-1.9
3.1
3.6
-2.9
-3.5
-1.0
-1.4
-0.6
-2.1
1.5
1.0
1.2
1.0
1.5
0.4
3.7
-1.5
-1.0
-0.2
2.3
0.7
-1.7
-7.9
-1.2
-3.3
-2.2
-2.1
2.0
2.5
-3.1
-4.4
-1.2
-2.3
-0.8
-2.0
1.2
0.8
0.9
0.8
1.1
0.2
2.5
-0.8
-0.7
0.0
2.0
0.5
-1.7
-7.9
-1.5
-3.3
-2.2
-2.2
0.8
1.8
-3.3
-4.5
-1.3
-2.4
-0.8
-1.8
1.2
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.4
2.0
-0.5
-0.5
0.2
1.5
0.4
-1.7
-7.9
-1.5
-3.3
-2.2
-2.2
0.0
1.5
-3.3
-4.5
-1.3
-2.4
-0.8
-1.7
0.7
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.4
1.3
-0.4
-0.4
0.3
0.9
0.2
-1.7
-7.9
-1.5
-3.3
-2.2
-2.2
-0.4
1.3
-3.3
-4.6
-1.4
-2.4
-0.8
-1.8
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.7
-0.2
-0.3
0.3
0.4
0.0
-1.7
-7.9
-1.7
-3.3
-2.2
-2.2
-0.6
0.9
-3.3
-4.9
-1.5
-2.4
-0.8
-1.8
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.3
0.3
0.4
-0.2
-0.4
0.1
0.1
-0.2
-1.8
-9.0
-1.6
-3.3
-2.3
-2.4
-0.7
0.8
-3.6
-5.5
-1.6
-2.5
-0.7
-1.8
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.7
0.3
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
Summary tables - Bury
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
181.2
113.9
-0.5
181.6
113.8
-0.1
181.6
113.2
-0.7
182.6
113.4
0.4
183.8
114.0
0.4
184.7
114.3
0.2
185.5
114.4
0.0
186.4
114.5
0.1
187.2
114.5
0.0
188.1
114.5
0.0
188.9
114.5
0.0
189.8
114.4
0.0
190.6
114.4
0.0
194.2
114.2
0.0
198.2
114.1
0.0
201.5
113.7
0.0
62.7
10.6
73.4
66.2
86.0
77.2
-19.8
2.3
2.0
63.4
10.5
73.9
66.9
84.3
75.8
-17.4
2.2
2.0
61.9
10.7
72.6
66.7
83.5
75.4
-16.7
2.6
2.3
61.9
11.2
73.0
67.2
81.8
73.7
-14.6
4.5
4.0
61.1
11.6
72.7
66.9
81.3
72.8
-14.4
4.3
3.8
60.6
11.1
71.7
66.0
80.5
71.9
-14.5
4.6
4.0
60.1
11.1
71.2
65.5
80.1
71.4
-14.6
4.9
4.3
60.5
11.2
71.7
65.9
80.7
71.9
-14.8
4.8
4.2
61.0
11.3
72.3
66.5
81.5
72.6
-15.0
4.6
4.0
61.5
11.4
72.9
67.1
82.3
73.2
-15.2
4.4
3.8
61.9
11.5
73.4
67.5
82.8
73.8
-15.4
4.2
3.7
62.3
11.5
73.8
67.8
83.3
74.2
-15.5
4.0
3.5
62.5
11.5
74.1
68.0
83.6
74.5
-15.6
3.8
3.3
62.9
11.7
74.6
68.5
84.1
75.0
-15.7
3.8
3.4
63.2
11.8
75.0
68.7
84.3
75.2
-15.6
4.0
3.5
63.4
12.0
75.4
69.0
84.2
75.4
-15.2
4.2
3.7
2300
96.4
2288
93.5
2250
92.3
2198
92.6
2235
92.6
2261
92.7
2282
92.4
2338
92.3
2395
92.2
2450
92.1
2501
91.8
2550
91.7
2599
91.5
2800
90.9
3060
90.2
3334
89.5
76
79564
77
80226
77
80898
77
80670
78
80870
79
81081
80
81929
81
82675
81
83405
82
84082
82
84719
83
85372
84
86046
87
88925
91
93013
95
97357
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.0
-0.5
-0.6
0.6
0.2
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.1
0.5
0.3
-0.2
0.4
0.1
-0.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.1
0.0
5.2
7.4
5.5
5.6
-0.3
-0.4
3.8
16.9
0.3
1.1
-1.6
0.7
1.1
-2.0
-1.4
2.4
-2.0
0.0
-2.4
2.1
-1.8
-0.2
-0.9
-0.4
0.7
15.9
0.3
0.0
4.4
0.7
0.6
-2.0
-1.7
2.1
76.2
1.7
-1.3
3.8
-0.5
-0.4
-0.6
-0.9
0.2
-5.4
-0.2
-0.8
-3.9
-1.3
-1.4
-0.9
-0.9
-0.2
7.7
0.3
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.5
-0.5
0.0
5.7
0.2
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.5
-0.2
-1.7
-0.1
0.9
1.2
0.9
0.9
1.1
0.7
-0.2
-4.9
-0.2
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.7
-0.2
-3.6
-0.1
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.5
-0.2
-3.8
-0.1
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.4
-0.1
-6.0
-0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
-0.1
-4.1
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.0
0.0
5.7
-0.2
-0.5
-2.9
-1.7
-1.2
-2.3
0.3
1.7
0.0
1.2
0.1
0.9
-0.3
2.5
-0.1
2.4
-0.1
2.3
-0.1
2.1
-0.2
1.9
-0.2
1.9
-0.2
1.9
-0.2
1.8
-0.1
1.7
-0.1
0.4
1.0
0.3
0.8
0.4
0.8
0.7
-0.3
1.1
0.2
1.0
0.3
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Bury (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.3
1.3
0.1
0.7
0.0
1.2
1.2
0.2
1.6
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.0
2.5
4.0
7.5
4.2
4.7
1.2
6.4
1.9
6.3
11.8
3.8
62.7
0.3
1.1
0.1
0.7
0.0
1.0
1.1
0.2
1.6
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.6
0.0
2.6
4.1
7.5
4.0
4.1
1.1
6.9
3.8
6.2
11.7
3.2
63.4
0.3
0.7
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.9
1.4
0.2
1.5
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.0
2.6
3.9
7.4
3.7
4.1
1.1
6.4
2.9
6.1
12.7
3.6
61.9
0.4
0.8
0.1
0.6
0.0
0.9
1.4
0.1
1.4
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.0
2.8
3.5
7.7
3.7
3.7
1.3
7.3
1.9
6.4
12.9
3.0
61.9
0.4
0.8
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.7
1.5
0.1
1.3
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.0
2.5
3.6
7.8
3.5
3.8
1.2
7.1
2.0
6.5
12.8
3.1
61.1
0.4
0.8
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.7
1.5
0.2
1.3
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.0
2.3
3.6
7.6
3.4
3.9
1.2
7.4
1.9
6.5
12.3
3.3
60.6
0.4
0.7
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.7
1.5
0.2
1.3
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.0
2.4
3.6
7.6
3.4
3.9
1.2
7.5
1.8
6.3
12.1
3.2
60.1
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.6
1.5
0.2
1.3
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.0
2.4
3.7
7.8
3.4
4.0
1.2
7.7
1.7
6.2
12.1
3.3
60.5
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.6
1.6
0.2
1.3
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.0
2.5
3.8
7.9
3.5
4.1
1.2
8.1
1.7
6.1
12.0
3.4
61.0
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.6
1.6
0.2
1.2
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.0
2.5
3.8
8.0
3.5
4.1
1.2
8.4
1.7
6.1
12.0
3.5
61.5
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.6
1.6
0.2
1.2
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.0
2.5
3.8
8.1
3.5
4.2
1.1
8.6
1.7
6.1
12.0
3.6
61.9
0.3
0.5
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.6
1.6
0.2
1.2
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.0
2.6
3.9
8.2
3.6
4.3
1.1
8.8
1.7
6.0
12.1
3.6
62.3
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.6
1.6
0.2
1.1
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.0
2.6
3.9
8.2
3.6
4.3
1.1
8.9
1.7
6.0
12.1
3.7
62.5
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.5
1.5
0.1
1.0
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.0
2.7
3.9
8.3
3.6
4.4
1.1
9.2
1.7
6.0
12.4
3.9
62.9
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.4
1.4
0.1
0.9
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.0
2.7
3.9
8.4
3.6
4.4
1.1
9.5
1.7
6.0
12.7
4.1
63.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.4
1.3
0.1
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.0
2.8
3.9
8.5
3.6
4.5
1.1
9.8
1.7
6.0
12.9
4.2
63.4
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
-12.6
85.4
10.6
-54.9
24.6
24.8
-11.9
-21.0
26.0
-27.2
-16.1
-13.7
1.2
-5.4
-1.4
-3.6
-1.5
-3.8
-1.8
-4.0
-1.7
-4.0
-1.6
-3.8
-1.6
-3.7
-1.8
-4.0
-1.9
-4.3
-1.9
-4.6
18.8
10.6
-17.3
14.1
66.3
8.0
-3.9
-14.6
-5.6
21.8
-9.3
19.2
23.9
33.9
10.7
-7.1
-3.7
-2.2
27.5
18.0
14.5
-25.0
8.9
5.5
21.9
5.2
2.3
-16.4
80.9
-1.2
-14.4
-14.8
-5.1
11.7
1.5
16.6
5.4
-28.9
26.6
99.3
5.6
2.3
-0.7
-4.7
-13.1
-5.5
6.8
101.6
-2.4
-1.0
-15.6
1.1
30.0
-39.1
-62.4
0.6
7.0
-9.7
26.2
-29.9
-9.2
-30.5
-13.0
-22.2
-33.0
6.6
0.4
-5.5
-0.3
-7.4
-0.4
-2.9
-7.6
-22.7
-0.4
8.8
9.7
-2.4
13.5
16.7
236.1
-22.9
87.1
2.2
-2.1
-4.9
-1.4
16.0
25.2
54.3
21.6
-19.2
4.1
-9.1
3.8
0.4
-10.8
21.2
15.2
-33.4
4.1
1.2
-15.4
0.0
-0.4
2.0
-6.5
-6.3
-19.9
-18.5
4.3
0.9
-7.1
-14.8
-10.4
-6.8
2.4
1.9
-9.2
3.0
0.8
-7.0
3.0
-8.8
-3.3
2.1
1.7
-0.7
2.8
-1.3
-1.0
-3.1
-1.9
2.5
7.8
-8.6
0.8
4.6
-2.3
2.1
1.5
1.9
1.6
8.8
-6.7
-0.2
-2.3
-2.4
2.7
0.5
4.8
-6.1
-0.3
-3.7
6.1
-0.8
-0.8
-7.9
-4.9
-8.6
-3.5
-3.0
3.1
-2.6
-0.5
-0.6
-2.6
1.0
-0.2
-1.7
1.7
0.7
0.3
-0.6
1.0
-1.6
0.5
-2.2
-1.7
-1.6
-2.1
-0.7
-1.1
-6.5
-2.9
-3.4
-1.9
-1.9
1.8
0.7
-1.4
-0.1
-2.2
0.5
-0.2
0.3
1.8
1.3
1.6
1.4
1.8
0.4
3.9
-3.5
-1.6
-0.7
2.0
0.6
-1.9
-7.1
-2.5
-3.9
-2.2
-2.3
2.4
1.1
-2.0
-0.5
-2.4
0.8
-0.5
0.3
2.1
1.5
1.8
1.6
2.1
0.0
4.5
-2.2
-1.5
-0.4
2.6
0.9
-2.1
-7.4
-3.6
-4.0
-2.2
-2.5
1.9
1.1
-2.3
-1.6
-2.7
-1.1
-0.6
0.0
1.6
1.1
1.3
1.2
2.0
-0.8
3.7
-1.3
-0.8
-0.1
3.0
0.8
-2.3
-7.6
-4.1
-4.2
-2.2
-2.8
0.9
0.1
-2.6
-2.5
-2.8
-2.0
-0.8
0.0
1.4
0.9
1.1
0.9
1.7
-1.0
2.6
-0.6
-0.5
0.2
2.8
0.7
-2.3
-7.6
-4.4
-4.3
-2.2
-2.9
-0.3
-0.6
-2.7
-2.6
-2.9
-2.2
-0.8
0.2
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.9
1.2
-0.8
2.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.4
2.3
0.6
-2.3
-7.6
-4.5
-4.3
-2.2
-2.9
-1.1
-0.8
-2.7
-2.6
-2.9
-2.2
-0.8
0.3
0.9
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.8
-0.7
1.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.5
1.7
0.4
-2.3
-7.6
-4.7
-4.3
-2.2
-2.9
-1.5
-0.9
-2.7
-2.6
-2.9
-2.2
-0.8
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.5
-0.7
0.9
0.1
-0.1
0.6
1.3
0.2
-2.3
-7.6
-5.3
-4.4
-2.2
-2.9
-1.6
-1.1
-2.7
-2.7
-2.8
-2.2
-0.8
0.0
0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.7
0.7
0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.9
0.1
-2.4
-8.6
-6.3
-4.8
-2.3
-3.0
-1.8
-1.1
-2.9
-2.8
-2.9
-2.3
-0.7
-0.1
0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.3
0.6
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.9
0.1
Summary tables - Manchester
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
455.7
319.1
5.7
465.2
328.2
6.0
473.2
334.8
4.2
483.8
344.1
6.5
498.8
357.0
10.8
509.5
365.9
6.9
516.5
370.8
2.7
522.4
373.7
1.3
527.8
375.8
0.4
532.7
377.2
-0.3
538.4
379.1
0.1
543.3
380.3
-0.8
548.5
381.7
-0.7
566.6
385.2
-1.8
580.9
384.7
-3.9
583.7
375.1
-6.6
308.7
21.8
330.5
288.1
186.2
59.7
101.9
11.4
3.6
308.7
21.8
330.5
288.0
191.8
59.8
96.2
11.1
3.4
306.3
22.1
328.4
287.7
191.8
58.5
95.9
11.5
3.4
305.5
23.5
329.0
290.6
191.5
56.8
99.2
17.2
5.0
302.9
24.6
327.5
289.6
198.7
56.8
90.9
17.8
5.0
307.1
23.9
331.0
292.4
200.4
55.8
92.1
19.5
5.3
308.7
23.8
332.6
293.8
201.4
55.4
92.4
21.0
5.7
313.8
24.2
338.0
298.6
204.3
55.7
94.3
20.9
5.6
320.0
24.6
344.6
304.4
207.8
56.4
96.7
20.1
5.3
325.7
24.9
350.6
309.7
211.0
57.1
98.8
19.5
5.2
330.8
25.1
355.9
314.4
213.8
57.7
100.5
19.0
5.0
335.3
25.3
360.6
318.4
216.4
58.3
102.0
18.0
4.7
338.9
25.5
364.4
321.7
218.7
58.7
103.1
17.3
4.5
347.8
26.2
374.0
329.8
225.1
60.0
104.7
17.8
4.6
354.0
26.7
380.7
335.3
231.2
61.9
104.1
18.7
4.9
355.8
26.9
382.7
336.7
235.3
64.6
101.5
19.6
5.2
12570
116.9
13057
119.2
13061
118.4
12428
116.3
12625
116.1
12995
115.4
13301
115.3
13769
115.3
14219
115.0
14679
114.8
15138
114.6
15573
114.6
16014
114.6
17713
114.6
19753
114.6
21712
114.8
195
203238
199
208295
203
213965
209
208230
216
209730
220
210987
223
214855
225
217223
227
219438
230
221714
232
223973
235
226621
237
229003
247
238766
258
250138
265
258181
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
1.9
3.0
0.1
2.1
2.9
0.4
1.7
2.0
-1.9
2.2
2.8
2.4
3.1
3.7
4.3
2.2
2.5
-3.9
1.4
1.3
-4.3
1.1
0.8
-1.4
1.0
0.6
-0.8
0.9
0.4
-0.7
1.1
0.5
0.4
0.9
0.3
-0.9
1.0
0.4
0.0
0.8
0.3
-0.2
0.5
0.0
-0.3
0.1
-0.5
-0.6
2.5
-2.4
2.2
1.9
5.5
1.4
-4.3
8.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
3.0
0.0
-5.8
-2.9
-0.2
-0.8
1.7
-0.6
-0.1
0.0
-1.2
-0.2
3.4
0.0
-0.3
6.3
0.2
1.0
-0.2
-1.7
3.2
50.1
1.6
-0.8
4.4
-0.5
-0.4
3.8
-0.1
-8.3
3.6
0.0
1.4
-2.8
1.1
1.0
0.8
-1.0
1.2
9.2
0.3
0.5
-0.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.4
0.3
8.1
0.4
1.7
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.4
0.4
1.9
-0.7
-0.1
2.0
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.7
0.7
2.4
-3.9
-0.2
1.8
1.4
1.8
1.7
1.5
0.7
2.1
-2.7
-0.2
1.6
0.8
1.5
1.5
1.4
0.5
1.8
-2.9
-0.2
1.4
0.8
1.3
1.3
1.2
0.6
1.5
-5.2
-0.3
1.1
0.8
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.4
1.1
-3.4
-0.2
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.3
-0.1
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.5
-0.5
1.0
0.1
3.8
1.5
3.9
2.4
0.0
-0.8
-4.9
-2.1
1.6
-0.2
2.9
-0.7
2.4
0.0
3.5
-0.1
3.3
-0.3
3.2
-0.2
3.1
-0.1
2.9
-0.1
2.8
0.0
2.6
0.0
2.2
0.0
1.9
0.0
2.0
1.0
2.2
2.5
2.1
2.7
2.8
-2.7
3.4
0.7
1.8
0.6
1.1
1.8
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.7
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Manchester (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
2.2
1.6
0.2
2.4
0.0
1.2
1.0
0.3
0.9
0.7
1.5
0.9
0.9
0.2
6.6
14.1
22.9
22.3
30.2
25.7
66.2
22.3
32.9
35.8
15.8
308.7
2.0
1.4
0.1
2.5
0.0
1.1
1.1
0.2
0.8
0.9
2.2
1.2
0.7
0.3
5.9
14.4
23.2
23.0
29.6
25.2
67.2
21.7
31.2
36.8
15.5
308.7
2.0
1.4
0.1
2.0
0.0
0.9
1.0
0.2
0.9
0.7
2.3
1.1
0.6
0.1
5.5
12.5
23.4
21.6
29.4
25.5
69.7
20.3
31.8
37.7
15.3
306.3
1.7
1.3
0.1
1.7
0.0
0.6
0.9
0.2
0.9
0.7
1.5
1.5
1.4
0.2
6.2
12.7
24.6
24.2
27.0
23.2
67.2
20.5
32.5
38.9
15.5
305.5
1.7
1.2
0.1
1.6
0.0
0.6
0.9
0.2
0.8
0.6
1.3
1.4
1.4
0.1
5.6
13.0
23.9
23.1
27.2
21.7
65.4
21.2
33.9
39.6
16.2
302.9
1.7
1.2
0.1
1.7
0.0
0.6
0.9
0.2
0.8
0.6
1.4
1.4
1.5
0.2
5.2
13.0
23.9
22.9
28.1
22.8
68.7
20.0
34.3
38.7
17.2
307.1
1.6
1.1
0.1
1.6
0.0
0.6
0.9
0.2
0.7
0.6
1.3
1.4
1.5
0.2
5.3
13.1
24.4
23.0
28.5
22.7
70.7
19.6
34.0
38.5
16.9
308.7
1.6
1.0
0.1
1.5
0.0
0.6
1.0
0.2
0.7
0.6
1.3
1.4
1.5
0.2
5.4
13.3
25.0
23.5
29.0
23.1
74.5
18.8
33.7
38.5
17.2
313.8
1.6
1.0
0.1
1.5
0.0
0.6
1.0
0.2
0.7
0.6
1.3
1.4
1.4
0.1
5.6
13.4
25.6
24.0
29.7
23.4
78.7
18.4
33.4
38.5
17.7
320.0
1.5
0.9
0.1
1.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.2
0.7
0.5
1.2
1.4
1.4
0.1
5.6
13.6
26.0
24.4
30.4
23.5
82.6
18.0
33.3
38.7
18.2
325.7
1.5
0.8
0.1
1.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.2
0.6
0.5
1.2
1.4
1.4
0.1
5.7
13.7
26.5
24.8
31.0
23.6
85.6
17.9
33.3
39.0
18.7
330.8
1.5
0.7
0.1
1.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.2
0.6
0.5
1.2
1.3
1.4
0.1
5.8
13.8
26.9
25.1
31.5
23.6
88.4
17.7
33.4
39.3
19.1
335.3
1.4
0.7
0.1
1.3
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.2
0.6
0.5
1.1
1.3
1.4
0.1
5.8
13.9
27.2
25.4
31.8
23.7
90.5
17.6
33.4
39.8
19.4
338.9
1.3
0.5
0.1
1.1
0.0
0.5
0.9
0.2
0.4
0.4
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.1
5.8
13.9
28.0
26.0
32.5
23.9
95.9
17.2
33.9
41.3
20.1
347.8
1.1
0.3
0.1
1.0
0.0
0.4
0.9
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.9
1.1
1.3
0.1
5.7
13.8
28.3
26.1
32.9
23.8
101.8
16.4
34.0
42.4
20.6
354.0
1.0
0.2
0.1
0.8
0.0
0.3
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.7
1.0
1.3
0.1
5.5
13.7
28.2
25.8
33.0
23.9
106.2
15.3
33.7
42.7
20.7
355.8
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
44.1
11.7
-52.7
71.7
85.2
-76.7
-12.2
-32.2
26.0
-27.2
-16.1
-13.7
1.2
-5.4
-1.4
-3.6
-1.5
-3.8
-1.8
-4.0
-1.7
-4.0
-1.6
-3.8
-1.6
-3.7
-1.8
-4.0
-1.9
-4.3
-1.9
-4.6
16.1
0.8
28.4
-5.3
-87.4
-1.0
-18.8
-20.5
-17.6
2.9
-14.8
27.3
7.4
-1.9
-9.4
-19.7
-2.1
-8.0
-4.9
13.2
8.2
34.8
2.1
1.8
6.0
2.5
-6.6
-6.7
-3.2
5.1
29.8
-4.8
15.1
-9.4
-10.4
29.8
41.7
37.8
-25.5
65.8
-10.8
2.8
1.4
3.2
-1.8
-1.7
1.5
-2.5
-5.4
2.7
-1.3
0.0
-1.6
-2.3
-44.2
-21.4
5.8
-14.9
-11.6
3.4
8.9
-29.6
4.6
-4.4
-6.7
-58.2
-7.4
-13.5
0.5
-6.1
-0.7
1.1
3.8
-6.6
2.1
2.5
-1.4
-0.8
-15.9
-10.7
28.9
-11.6
75.6
-31.8
-12.5
-2.9
-0.9
-0.6
-33.8
26.9
120.7
11.4
13.3
1.5
5.5
12.2
-8.1
-8.9
-3.6
0.9
2.3
3.3
1.3
-0.3
-0.8
-2.1
-4.3
-5.4
-19.9
-4.7
4.3
0.9
-11.6
-15.2
-10.1
-6.5
2.4
-3.9
-9.8
2.9
-3.2
-4.7
0.7
-6.7
-2.7
3.6
4.1
1.7
4.2
-0.8
-1.0
-2.4
0.6
3.5
7.8
-2.4
0.8
4.6
-3.6
1.6
1.8
-0.4
1.6
7.1
-7.6
-0.3
0.2
-0.8
3.3
5.0
5.0
-5.4
1.3
-2.1
6.4
1.4
-1.1
-8.3
-2.5
-7.7
-3.5
-2.9
3.1
-2.6
-2.8
-1.1
-2.6
1.3
-0.2
-3.6
3.1
0.6
2.1
0.3
1.3
-0.2
3.1
-2.3
-0.8
-0.7
-1.9
0.5
-1.5
-6.9
-0.3
-2.4
-1.9
-1.7
1.8
0.7
-3.7
-0.6
-2.2
0.8
-0.2
-1.5
1.9
1.3
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.7
5.3
-3.8
-1.0
0.0
2.1
1.7
-2.2
-7.6
0.1
-2.9
-2.2
-2.0
2.4
1.1
-4.3
-0.9
-2.4
1.2
-0.5
-1.5
2.0
1.5
2.4
2.2
2.4
1.3
5.7
-2.6
-0.9
0.2
2.6
2.0
-2.5
-7.8
-0.9
-3.1
-2.2
-2.3
1.9
1.1
-4.7
-2.1
-2.7
-0.8
-0.6
-1.8
1.5
1.0
1.8
1.7
2.3
0.4
4.9
-1.8
-0.3
0.4
2.9
1.8
-2.7
-8.0
-1.4
-3.3
-2.2
-2.6
0.9
0.1
-4.9
-3.0
-2.9
-1.7
-0.8
-1.7
1.2
0.8
1.7
1.6
1.9
0.2
3.7
-1.0
0.1
0.8
2.8
1.6
-2.7
-8.0
-1.7
-3.3
-2.2
-2.7
-0.3
-0.6
-5.1
-3.1
-3.0
-1.8
-0.8
-1.5
1.2
0.7
1.5
1.3
1.5
0.3
3.2
-0.8
0.1
0.8
2.1
1.4
-2.7
-8.0
-1.7
-3.3
-2.2
-2.7
-1.1
-0.8
-5.1
-3.1
-3.0
-1.8
-0.8
-1.4
0.5
0.4
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.3
2.4
-0.7
0.3
1.0
1.6
1.1
-2.7
-8.0
-1.7
-3.3
-2.2
-2.7
-1.5
-0.9
-5.2
-3.1
-2.9
-1.8
-0.8
-1.5
0.1
0.1
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.2
1.6
-0.6
0.3
1.0
1.0
0.7
-2.7
-8.0
-1.9
-3.3
-2.2
-2.7
-1.6
-1.1
-5.5
-3.1
-2.9
-1.8
-0.8
-1.5
-0.4
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.0
1.2
-0.9
0.1
0.6
0.5
0.4
-2.8
-9.1
-1.8
-3.3
-2.3
-2.8
-1.8
-1.1
-6.3
-3.2
-3.0
-1.9
-0.7
-1.5
-0.7
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.0
0.9
-1.3
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
Summary tables - Oldham
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
217.7
134.6
-1.2
217.8
134.4
-1.0
218.1
134.0
-1.0
218.7
134.0
-0.5
219.7
134.1
-0.4
220.5
134.2
-0.3
221.1
134.3
-0.5
221.6
134.2
-0.6
222.2
134.1
-0.7
222.7
134.0
-0.7
223.4
134.1
-0.7
224.0
134.0
-0.7
224.7
134.0
-0.7
227.6
134.4
-0.7
231.0
136.0
-0.7
233.8
138.0
-0.8
77.2
10.7
87.9
82.1
88.7
67.4
-6.6
3.9
2.9
79.8
11.3
91.1
85.1
85.2
64.9
-0.1
4.0
3.0
76.7
10.9
87.7
83.0
84.5
64.5
-1.5
4.3
3.2
75.3
10.7
86.1
81.3
83.6
63.8
-2.2
6.8
5.1
73.9
11.0
84.9
80.3
84.0
64.0
-3.7
6.8
5.1
73.2
10.5
83.7
79.1
83.2
63.4
-4.1
7.6
5.6
72.8
10.4
83.2
78.6
82.9
63.1
-4.2
8.0
6.0
73.2
10.5
83.8
79.2
83.6
63.6
-4.5
7.9
5.9
73.9
10.7
84.5
79.9
84.5
64.4
-4.7
7.5
5.6
74.4
10.7
85.2
80.4
85.4
65.0
-4.9
7.2
5.4
74.9
10.8
85.7
80.9
86.0
65.5
-5.1
6.9
5.2
75.3
10.8
86.1
81.3
86.6
66.0
-5.3
6.5
4.8
75.5
10.8
86.4
81.5
87.0
66.3
-5.5
6.2
4.6
76.0
11.0
87.0
82.0
88.0
66.9
-6.0
6.3
4.7
76.6
11.1
87.7
82.6
89.0
66.8
-6.4
6.5
4.8
77.3
11.3
88.5
83.3
89.9
66.5
-6.6
6.9
5.0
2542
88.8
2567
85.0
2524
85.7
2368
84.7
2411
85.5
2438
85.6
2463
85.4
2524
85.3
2587
85.3
2647
85.2
2702
85.0
2755
84.9
2808
84.8
3027
84.3
3319
83.7
3633
83.1
89
94502
90
92925
90
92639
90
93790
91
93710
92
93771
92
94370
93
94886
93
95378
94
95884
94
96384
95
96947
95
97495
98
99851
101
103209
105
106680
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.2
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.0
-3.4
-1.2
-3.2
-3.1
-1.1
-0.7
-1.7
21.3
0.5
3.3
6.0
3.7
3.7
-3.9
-2.5
6.4
1.7
0.1
-3.8
-3.6
-3.8
-2.5
-0.8
-0.4
-1.4
7.7
0.2
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-2.0
-1.1
-0.7
-0.7
58.7
1.9
-1.9
2.4
-1.3
-1.3
0.5
0.2
-1.4
-0.4
0.0
-0.9
-4.5
-1.4
-1.4
-0.9
-0.7
-0.4
11.5
0.6
-0.6
-0.8
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
6.2
0.3
0.6
1.0
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.6
-0.2
-1.8
-0.1
0.9
1.2
0.9
0.9
1.1
0.7
-0.2
-5.1
-0.3
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
1.0
0.7
-0.2
-3.8
-0.2
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.5
-0.2
-3.9
-0.2
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.5
-0.2
-6.2
-0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.3
-0.2
-4.2
-0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
-0.1
-0.7
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.0
1.1
0.0
-3.7
-0.7
1.0
-3.8
-1.6
0.7
-6.2
-1.0
1.8
0.8
1.1
0.1
1.0
-0.2
2.5
-0.1
2.5
0.0
2.3
-0.1
2.1
-0.1
2.0
-0.1
1.9
-0.1
1.9
-0.1
1.9
-0.1
1.8
-0.1
0.1
1.1
0.3
-1.7
0.3
-0.3
0.7
1.2
0.9
-0.1
0.6
0.1
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
* percentagethe
changes
unless
otherwise
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents
number
of jobs
in annoted
area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Oldham (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
2.3
1.2
0.4
1.4
0.0
0.6
1.0
0.0
2.0
1.5
1.8
0.4
1.5
0.1
5.7
5.9
11.1
3.9
3.4
1.3
7.6
3.1
7.6
9.9
3.5
77.2
1.7
1.1
0.5
1.4
0.0
0.6
0.9
0.0
1.8
1.7
1.7
0.3
1.5
0.1
6.1
6.3
11.2
3.9
3.2
1.1
9.4
3.1
8.0
10.3
3.6
79.8
1.4
0.9
0.3
1.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
0.1
1.8
1.5
1.9
0.3
0.8
0.3
5.4
5.6
11.1
3.8
3.1
0.7
9.5
3.3
7.6
11.0
3.6
76.7
1.3
0.7
0.4
1.3
0.0
0.4
0.9
0.0
1.9
1.2
1.7
0.8
1.4
0.3
4.7
5.2
11.1
3.8
3.3
1.0
8.5
3.1
7.6
11.1
3.4
75.3
1.3
0.7
0.4
1.2
0.0
0.4
1.0
0.0
1.8
1.1
1.5
0.8
1.4
0.3
4.1
5.4
11.2
3.5
3.3
0.9
8.1
3.1
7.7
11.1
3.4
73.9
1.3
0.7
0.4
1.2
0.0
0.4
1.0
0.0
1.8
1.1
1.6
0.7
1.4
0.3
3.8
5.4
10.9
3.4
3.2
0.9
8.5
3.0
7.7
10.7
3.6
73.2
1.3
0.7
0.4
1.1
0.0
0.4
1.0
0.0
1.7
1.1
1.5
0.7
1.4
0.3
3.9
5.4
10.9
3.4
3.2
0.9
8.6
2.9
7.5
10.6
3.5
72.8
1.3
0.6
0.4
1.1
0.0
0.4
1.0
0.0
1.7
1.1
1.5
0.7
1.4
0.3
4.0
5.5
11.1
3.4
3.3
0.9
9.0
2.8
7.4
10.6
3.6
73.2
1.2
0.6
0.4
1.1
0.0
0.4
1.1
0.0
1.7
1.0
1.5
0.7
1.4
0.3
4.1
5.6
11.3
3.5
3.3
0.9
9.5
2.8
7.3
10.6
3.6
73.9
1.2
0.5
0.4
1.1
0.0
0.4
1.1
0.0
1.6
1.0
1.4
0.7
1.4
0.3
4.1
5.7
11.4
3.5
3.4
0.9
9.9
2.7
7.3
10.6
3.7
74.4
1.2
0.5
0.4
1.0
0.0
0.4
1.1
0.0
1.6
1.0
1.4
0.6
1.4
0.3
4.2
5.7
11.5
3.5
3.4
0.9
10.2
2.7
7.2
10.7
3.8
74.9
1.2
0.5
0.4
1.0
0.0
0.4
1.1
0.0
1.5
1.0
1.3
0.6
1.4
0.3
4.2
5.8
11.6
3.6
3.4
0.9
10.5
2.7
7.2
10.8
3.8
75.3
1.1
0.4
0.4
1.0
0.0
0.4
1.1
0.0
1.5
0.9
1.3
0.6
1.4
0.3
4.3
5.8
11.7
3.6
3.5
0.9
10.8
2.8
7.2
10.9
3.9
75.5
1.0
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.0
0.3
1.0
0.0
1.3
0.8
1.1
0.5
1.3
0.2
4.4
5.9
11.8
3.6
3.5
0.9
11.4
2.8
7.2
11.3
3.9
76.0
0.9
0.2
0.3
0.7
0.0
0.3
0.9
0.0
1.1
0.7
1.0
0.4
1.3
0.2
4.5
6.0
11.8
3.6
3.4
0.9
12.3
2.9
7.3
11.8
4.0
76.6
0.8
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.8
0.0
1.0
0.6
0.8
0.3
1.2
0.2
4.6
6.0
11.8
3.6
3.4
0.9
13.2
3.0
7.4
12.3
4.1
77.3
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
51.7
56.4
2.1
-31.3
17.2
-3.0
-13.7
1.6
26.8
-27.2
-15.6
-13.7
1.8
-5.4
-0.7
-3.6
-0.9
-3.8
-1.2
-4.0
-1.1
-4.0
-1.0
-3.8
-1.0
-3.7
-1.2
-4.0
-1.3
-4.3
-1.3
-4.6
-18.3
-4.5
19.9
-5.0
0.0
-10.3
-6.8
-30.7
6.8
-1.2
-11.1
-63.7
7.8
185.0
22.8
-11.0
-8.5
-5.7
6.6
-14.7
-2.5
-0.5
5.3
-2.3
-11.8
-3.4
-27.7
-5.5
10.9
3.8
0.0
-0.5
-6.9
-18.8
-8.7
16.5
-2.0
-14.7
0.6
15.7
5.7
7.2
0.9
1.1
-5.0
-9.6
22.7
1.3
5.3
4.0
2.4
3.3
-16.1
-15.0
-30.7
-0.1
0.0
-27.2
-10.1
177.2
-1.8
-15.7
8.5
-14.4
-48.4
241.9
-11.4
-10.1
-1.3
-3.6
-3.9
-34.6
1.3
4.9
-4.8
6.5
-0.7
-3.8
-6.7
-20.6
21.1
-11.4
0.0
1.7
11.0
-79.6
9.9
-14.5
-9.0
218.1
71.8
-13.9
-13.2
-8.1
0.7
-0.4
6.0
40.4
-10.3
-6.7
-0.5
1.0
-5.3
-1.8
-0.4
-0.6
-3.9
-5.4
0.0
-3.7
4.3
0.9
-7.2
-15.2
-9.4
-9.1
2.4
-0.6
-11.1
3.3
0.6
-7.2
-1.0
-11.2
-4.5
2.6
1.7
-0.3
1.8
-1.9
-1.0
-2.3
0.9
3.5
0.0
-2.1
0.8
4.6
-2.7
1.6
2.9
-4.6
1.6
6.9
-7.5
0.1
-2.5
-2.5
-0.6
-0.3
4.7
-5.6
-0.2
-3.2
5.1
-0.9
-0.8
-8.0
-2.1
-7.7
0.0
-2.9
3.1
-2.6
-0.8
-1.1
-2.8
-1.5
-0.2
-3.5
1.7
0.9
0.1
-0.7
0.4
-1.4
1.2
-1.8
-1.6
-1.2
-2.8
-0.6
-1.1
-6.5
0.0
-2.4
0.0
-1.7
1.8
0.7
-1.7
-0.6
-2.4
-2.1
-0.2
-1.4
1.9
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.2
0.6
4.7
-3.1
-1.6
-0.3
1.3
0.6
-1.9
-7.2
0.5
-2.9
0.0
-2.0
2.4
1.1
-2.3
-0.9
-2.6
-1.8
-0.5
-1.4
2.1
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.6
0.2
5.3
-1.8
-1.5
0.0
1.9
0.9
-2.1
-7.4
-0.6
-3.1
0.0
-2.3
1.9
1.1
-2.6
-2.1
-2.9
-3.7
-0.6
-1.7
1.6
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.4
-0.7
4.5
-0.9
-0.8
0.3
2.3
0.8
-2.3
-7.6
-1.1
-3.3
0.0
-2.6
0.9
0.1
-2.8
-3.0
-3.1
-4.6
-0.8
-1.6
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.8
1.1
-0.9
3.3
-0.1
-0.4
0.7
2.1
0.6
-2.3
-7.6
-1.3
-3.3
0.0
-2.6
-0.3
-0.6
-3.0
-3.1
-3.1
-4.8
-0.8
-1.4
1.3
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.7
-0.7
2.9
0.2
-0.2
0.8
1.5
0.5
-2.3
-7.6
-1.3
-3.3
0.0
-2.7
-1.1
-0.8
-3.0
-3.1
-3.1
-4.8
-0.8
-1.3
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.3
-0.6
2.2
0.3
-0.1
1.0
1.0
0.3
-2.3
-7.6
-1.4
-3.3
0.0
-2.6
-1.5
-0.9
-3.0
-3.1
-3.1
-5.0
-0.8
-1.4
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.0
-0.5
1.6
0.5
0.1
1.0
0.6
0.2
-2.3
-7.6
-1.5
-3.3
0.0
-2.6
-1.6
-1.1
-3.0
-3.1
-3.1
-5.3
-0.8
-1.4
0.5
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.5
1.5
0.5
0.1
0.9
0.3
0.1
-2.4
-8.6
-1.5
-3.3
0.0
-2.8
-1.8
-1.1
-3.2
-3.2
-3.2
-6.1
-0.7
-1.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
1.4
0.5
0.2
0.8
0.3
0.2
Summary tables - Rochdale
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
204.3
128.8
-1.5
204.0
128.4
-1.3
204.3
128.0
-0.8
204.7
127.9
-0.7
205.2
127.3
-0.7
205.7
126.8
-0.6
206.2
126.1
-0.7
206.5
125.5
-0.8
206.8
124.8
-0.8
207.1
124.2
-0.9
207.5
123.8
-0.8
207.9
123.4
-0.8
208.3
123.1
-0.8
210.3
123.1
-0.7
213.2
125.5
-0.6
215.5
128.7
-0.8
77.2
11.5
88.7
80.5
85.1
67.6
-4.6
4.0
3.1
79.2
12.0
91.1
82.8
84.4
67.3
-1.6
3.8
2.9
74.1
11.1
85.2
78.9
82.6
66.0
-3.7
4.2
3.3
74.1
12.2
86.2
79.8
80.7
64.5
-0.9
7.3
5.7
72.8
12.5
85.3
79.0
78.7
63.2
0.3
7.0
5.5
71.8
11.9
83.7
77.4
77.6
62.5
-0.1
7.8
6.1
71.3
11.7
83.1
76.9
77.2
62.5
-0.3
8.2
6.5
71.7
11.9
83.6
77.3
77.8
63.4
-0.5
7.9
6.3
72.3
12.0
84.3
78.0
78.7
64.4
-0.7
7.4
5.9
72.8
12.1
85.0
78.6
79.5
65.3
-0.9
7.0
5.6
73.3
12.2
85.5
79.0
80.2
66.1
-1.1
6.6
5.4
73.7
12.2
85.9
79.4
80.7
66.7
-1.3
6.1
5.0
73.9
12.2
86.1
79.6
81.1
67.2
-1.5
5.8
4.7
74.2
12.4
86.6
79.9
81.9
67.9
-2.0
5.5
4.4
74.7
12.5
87.2
80.4
82.8
67.3
-2.4
5.3
4.2
75.3
12.7
88.0
81.0
83.7
66.4
-2.7
5.1
4.0
2789
96.6
2850
94.4
2734
95.6
2637
94.2
2687
94.9
2710
95.2
2737
95.0
2807
95.1
2879
95.1
2947
95.1
3012
95.0
3073
94.9
3134
94.9
3388
94.7
3733
94.6
4107
94.5
85
89429
85
89669
85
90056
86
88850
87
88880
87
89093
87
89595
88
90044
88
90478
89
90932
89
91412
90
91937
90
92427
92
94405
95
97231
98
100153
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.5
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.4
0.1
0.3
-0.4
0.1
0.2
-0.5
-0.1
0.2
-0.5
-0.1
0.1
-0.5
0.0
0.1
-0.5
0.0
0.2
-0.3
0.1
0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.0
2.1
-1.2
1.6
1.7
-0.7
-0.4
1.9
19.0
0.5
2.5
4.3
2.7
3.0
-0.8
-0.3
3.1
-6.0
-0.2
-6.4
-7.2
-6.5
-4.8
-2.2
-1.3
-2.1
12.1
0.4
0.0
9.6
1.2
1.2
-2.3
-1.5
2.8
71.4
2.4
-1.6
2.4
-1.1
-1.0
-2.5
-1.4
1.2
-3.0
-0.1
-1.4
-4.7
-1.9
-2.0
-1.4
-0.6
-0.5
10.1
0.6
-0.7
-1.2
-0.8
-0.7
-0.5
0.0
-0.2
5.6
0.4
0.5
1.1
0.6
0.6
0.9
0.9
-0.2
-3.4
-0.2
0.8
1.3
0.9
0.9
1.1
1.0
-0.2
-6.6
-0.4
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.0
0.9
-0.2
-5.3
-0.3
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.7
-0.2
-5.4
-0.3
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.7
-0.2
-7.6
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.5
-0.2
-5.7
-0.3
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
-0.1
-2.2
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.8
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.4
0.0
1.4
-0.5
2.2
-2.2
-4.0
1.2
-3.6
-1.4
1.9
0.7
0.8
0.3
1.0
-0.1
2.6
0.1
2.6
0.0
2.4
0.0
2.2
-0.1
2.0
-0.1
2.0
-0.1
2.0
0.0
1.9
0.0
1.9
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.8
-1.3
0.5
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Rochdale (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.6
2.3
0.2
1.0
0.0
1.8
1.3
0.1
2.0
1.5
1.1
0.3
0.4
0.1
5.1
5.9
8.4
5.1
7.0
1.0
9.9
2.7
6.7
9.5
3.0
77.2
0.7
2.1
0.3
0.9
0.0
1.7
1.5
0.1
2.0
2.0
1.0
0.4
0.5
0.1
5.2
6.5
8.3
4.7
6.5
1.0
11.6
3.4
6.5
8.8
3.4
79.2
0.8
1.7
0.2
0.7
0.0
1.5
1.6
0.1
1.8
2.3
0.6
0.2
0.4
0.1
4.2
5.8
7.8
4.0
7.2
1.0
9.8
4.3
5.5
9.0
3.1
74.1
0.9
1.6
0.4
0.6
0.0
1.4
1.3
0.1
1.9
1.2
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.1
5.7
5.1
7.7
3.7
6.9
1.0
8.3
6.3
5.7
9.4
3.2
74.1
0.9
1.6
0.4
0.6
0.0
1.2
1.4
0.1
1.7
1.0
0.3
0.4
0.7
0.1
5.2
5.3
7.7
3.4
6.8
0.9
8.2
6.4
5.8
9.3
3.2
72.8
0.9
1.6
0.4
0.6
0.0
1.1
1.4
0.1
1.7
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.1
4.8
5.3
7.5
3.3
6.7
0.9
8.6
6.0
5.8
8.9
3.4
71.8
0.9
1.5
0.4
0.6
0.0
1.1
1.5
0.1
1.7
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.1
4.9
5.3
7.6
3.3
6.7
0.9
8.7
5.9
5.7
8.8
3.3
71.3
0.9
1.5
0.4
0.5
0.0
1.0
1.5
0.1
1.6
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.1
5.0
5.4
7.6
3.4
6.9
0.9
9.1
5.6
5.6
8.7
3.3
71.7
0.8
1.4
0.4
0.5
0.0
1.0
1.5
0.1
1.6
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.1
5.1
5.5
7.8
3.4
7.0
0.9
9.6
5.5
5.5
8.6
3.4
72.3
0.8
1.3
0.4
0.5
0.0
1.0
1.6
0.1
1.6
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.1
5.2
5.5
7.8
3.5
7.1
0.9
10.0
5.4
5.4
8.6
3.4
72.8
0.8
1.2
0.3
0.5
0.0
1.0
1.6
0.1
1.5
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.1
5.2
5.6
7.9
3.5
7.2
0.9
10.4
5.4
5.4
8.6
3.5
73.3
0.8
1.1
0.3
0.5
0.0
0.9
1.6
0.1
1.5
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.1
5.3
5.7
8.0
3.5
7.3
0.9
10.7
5.3
5.4
8.6
3.6
73.7
0.8
1.0
0.3
0.5
0.0
0.9
1.6
0.1
1.4
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.1
5.3
5.7
8.0
3.5
7.4
0.9
10.9
5.3
5.4
8.6
3.6
73.9
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.8
1.5
0.1
1.3
0.9
0.3
0.4
0.7
0.1
5.4
5.7
8.0
3.6
7.5
0.8
11.6
5.3
5.4
8.7
3.6
74.2
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.7
1.4
0.1
1.1
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.1
5.6
5.7
8.1
3.6
7.6
0.8
12.5
5.3
5.4
8.9
3.7
74.7
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.6
1.3
0.1
0.9
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.1
5.7
5.7
8.1
3.7
7.8
0.8
13.5
5.2
5.5
9.0
3.7
75.3
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
112.7
-58.3
-9.3
106.0
-0.1
-100.0
-12.0
0.0
26.0
0.0
-16.1
0.0
1.2
0.0
-1.4
0.0
-1.5
0.0
-1.8
0.0
-1.7
0.0
-1.6
0.0
-1.6
0.0
-1.8
0.0
-1.9
0.0
-1.9
0.0
25.6
-2.7
28.1
19.0
0.0
1.8
-12.6
1.0
20.4
9.6
6.7
-27.7
35.1
63.8
-4.6
-1.7
5.5
0.5
18.1
20.4
-2.6
-6.6
3.8
-2.2
-4.6
2.1
10.8
-11.0
36.5
-9.8
0.0
-6.1
11.5
1.8
-3.2
33.6
-7.3
38.3
10.9
83.0
1.8
10.0
-1.1
-7.8
-6.5
-4.5
17.0
25.3
-3.1
-7.7
13.8
2.5
9.5
-16.0
-16.9
-14.4
0.0
-8.9
11.4
-22.7
-7.5
14.8
-41.7
-52.6
-13.7
-7.4
-17.9
-11.0
-5.1
-15.3
10.6
2.7
-15.6
24.1
-14.9
2.3
-8.6
-6.4
15.7
-8.8
55.2
-15.2
0.0
-5.7
-18.5
-8.9
2.3
-48.2
-35.8
141.3
57.2
-17.5
33.4
-11.6
-1.7
-8.7
-4.0
0.2
-15.1
47.3
3.2
4.5
2.9
0.0
0.0
4.0
-4.3
-5.4
0.0
-17.7
4.9
0.9
-8.3
-14.2
-7.4
-6.9
3.3
0.7
-7.9
3.1
0.4
-7.1
-2.1
-11.0
-1.0
1.7
1.5
-1.1
1.4
-1.6
-0.6
-0.3
0.6
3.5
0.0
-8.1
1.4
4.6
-2.3
2.8
4.7
1.6
2.5
6.8
-7.2
-0.1
-2.6
-2.3
-1.3
0.1
5.1
-6.3
-0.3
-3.9
4.6
-1.4
-0.4
-6.6
-2.5
-7.7
0.0
-3.0
3.7
-2.6
-0.9
0.0
-0.4
0.9
0.7
-3.5
1.2
0.8
0.0
-0.5
0.7
-1.6
0.8
-2.5
-1.7
-1.8
-3.0
-0.7
-0.7
-5.1
-0.3
-2.4
0.0
-1.9
2.3
0.7
-1.7
0.5
0.0
0.4
0.6
-1.4
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.6
0.5
4.7
-3.8
-1.7
-1.0
1.1
0.5
-1.5
-6.9
0.1
-2.9
0.0
-2.2
2.9
1.1
-2.4
0.2
-0.3
0.8
0.3
-1.4
2.1
1.6
1.5
1.6
2.0
0.1
5.3
-2.5
-1.6
-0.7
1.7
0.8
-1.8
-7.1
-0.9
-3.1
0.0
-2.5
2.4
1.1
-2.7
-1.0
-0.7
-1.2
0.2
-1.7
1.6
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.9
-0.8
4.6
-1.6
-0.9
-0.4
2.1
0.8
-2.0
-7.3
-1.4
-3.3
0.0
-2.8
1.4
0.1
-2.9
-1.9
-0.9
-2.1
0.0
-1.6
1.3
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.6
-0.9
3.4
-0.8
-0.5
0.0
2.0
0.6
-2.0
-7.3
-1.7
-3.3
0.0
-2.9
0.2
-0.6
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
-2.2
0.0
-1.4
1.4
0.9
0.7
0.9
1.2
-0.7
3.0
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
1.4
0.5
-2.0
-7.3
-1.7
-3.3
0.0
-2.9
-0.6
-0.8
-3.0
-2.1
-1.0
-2.2
0.0
-1.3
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.8
-0.6
2.2
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.8
0.3
-2.0
-7.3
-1.7
-3.3
0.0
-2.9
-1.0
-0.9
-3.0
-2.1
-1.1
-2.2
0.0
-1.4
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.5
-0.6
1.7
-0.2
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.1
-2.0
-7.4
-1.9
-3.3
0.0
-2.8
-1.1
-1.1
-3.0
-2.1
-1.2
-2.3
-0.1
-1.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
-0.5
1.5
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
-2.1
-8.3
-1.8
-3.3
0.0
-3.0
-1.3
-1.1
-3.3
-2.2
-1.3
-2.3
0.1
-1.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
-0.1
1.5
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Summary tables - Salford
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
220.8
144.0
0.9
221.3
144.6
-0.2
223.0
145.6
0.8
225.0
147.3
1.1
229.0
150.5
2.6
231.7
152.7
1.5
233.8
154.1
0.8
236.0
155.3
0.6
238.0
156.2
0.4
239.7
156.8
0.2
241.6
157.4
0.2
243.4
158.0
0.1
245.3
158.6
0.1
253.0
161.0
0.0
261.4
163.8
-0.3
267.5
164.5
-0.8
115.4
10.1
125.5
108.8
103.7
73.6
5.2
4.0
2.8
116.5
10.5
127.0
110.2
104.3
73.7
5.9
4.0
2.8
117.4
11.2
128.6
113.3
102.4
71.8
10.9
4.2
2.9
114.6
11.4
126.0
111.9
99.4
68.9
12.5
7.2
4.9
112.1
11.7
123.9
109.9
99.5
67.4
10.4
7.4
4.9
112.2
11.3
123.5
109.4
99.4
66.4
10.0
7.9
5.2
112.4
11.2
123.6
109.5
99.5
65.8
10.0
8.5
5.5
114.2
11.4
125.6
111.3
100.9
66.2
10.4
8.4
5.4
116.6
11.6
128.3
113.6
102.7
66.9
11.0
8.1
5.2
118.9
11.8
130.7
115.7
104.2
67.7
11.5
7.9
5.0
120.8
11.9
132.7
117.5
105.5
68.3
11.9
7.6
4.8
122.5
12.0
134.5
119.1
106.7
68.8
12.3
7.2
4.6
123.9
12.1
136.0
120.3
107.7
69.1
12.7
7.0
4.4
127.6
12.5
140.2
123.9
110.2
69.7
13.8
7.2
4.5
131.8
13.0
144.8
127.8
112.6
70.2
15.2
7.7
4.7
135.4
13.4
148.9
131.3
114.6
71.2
16.7
8.2
5.0
4077
99.9
4264
101.3
4391
101.6
4153
101.5
4156
101.0
4222
100.5
4299
100.3
4452
100.3
4607
100.1
4766
100.0
4918
99.9
5066
99.9
5215
100.0
5800
100.2
6564
100.2
7364
100.1
97
101789
97
101591
98
104325
99
106500
101
106970
102
107151
103
108059
104
108781
105
109636
105
110557
106
111357
107
112232
108
113117
112
117092
118
123072
123
129344
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
0.6
1.3
0.0
0.2
0.4
-1.2
0.8
0.7
1.0
0.9
1.1
0.3
1.8
2.2
1.5
1.2
1.4
-1.1
0.9
0.9
-0.8
0.9
0.8
-0.2
0.9
0.6
-0.2
0.7
0.4
-0.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.8
0.3
-0.1
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.7
0.3
0.0
0.5
0.1
-0.1
0.8
-3.0
0.5
0.7
4.0
1.9
-3.3
15.7
0.3
0.9
4.5
1.2
1.2
0.6
0.1
0.7
-0.5
0.0
0.9
6.1
1.3
2.8
-1.8
-1.8
5.0
6.1
0.1
-2.4
1.6
-2.1
-1.3
-3.0
-3.0
1.6
70.8
2.0
-2.2
3.3
-1.7
-1.8
0.1
-1.5
-2.1
2.4
0.0
0.1
-4.1
-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
-1.0
-0.4
6.2
0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.6
0.0
7.4
0.3
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.4
0.4
0.4
-0.8
-0.1
2.1
1.9
2.1
2.1
1.7
0.7
0.6
-3.8
-0.2
1.9
1.4
1.9
1.9
1.5
0.8
0.5
-2.6
-0.2
1.6
0.9
1.5
1.5
1.3
0.6
0.4
-2.9
-0.2
1.4
0.9
1.4
1.3
1.1
0.5
0.4
-5.2
-0.3
1.1
0.9
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.4
0.3
-3.4
-0.2
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.3
1.3
0.0
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.3
1.5
0.1
1.8
0.9
4.6
1.5
3.0
0.3
-5.4
-0.1
0.1
-0.5
1.6
-0.5
1.8
-0.2
3.5
0.0
3.5
-0.2
3.4
-0.1
3.2
0.0
3.0
0.0
2.9
0.1
2.7
0.0
2.5
0.0
2.3
0.0
0.9
-0.2
0.7
-0.2
0.9
2.7
1.2
2.1
1.8
0.4
0.8
0.2
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Salford (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.0
2.0
0.7
0.6
1.2
1.1
1.2
0.1
0.5
0.1
6.3
10.1
7.3
6.6
5.8
5.9
24.2
7.9
12.2
15.2
4.1
115.4
0.8
0.3
0.5
0.8
0.0
1.8
0.7
0.7
1.0
1.3
1.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
6.8
10.4
7.2
5.9
5.7
6.0
25.0
7.7
11.9
15.8
4.2
116.5
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.0
1.4
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.0
0.1
0.5
0.3
7.5
9.0
7.3
6.4
5.6
6.9
27.7
6.6
11.2
16.4
3.8
117.4
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.0
1.7
0.5
0.5
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.1
0.7
0.2
6.7
9.0
7.8
6.7
4.7
5.9
29.0
6.5
10.3
15.1
4.2
114.6
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.0
1.5
0.5
0.5
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.1
0.8
0.2
6.0
9.2
8.0
6.3
4.8
5.3
27.6
6.7
10.5
15.2
4.3
112.1
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.0
1.4
0.5
0.5
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.1
0.8
0.2
5.5
9.2
7.9
6.2
5.0
5.5
28.5
6.4
10.6
14.8
4.6
112.2
0.7
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.0
1.3
0.5
0.5
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.1
0.8
0.2
5.7
9.3
7.9
6.2
5.1
5.5
29.0
6.3
10.4
14.7
4.5
112.4
0.7
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.0
1.3
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.1
0.8
0.2
5.8
9.4
8.1
6.3
5.2
5.6
30.3
6.1
10.3
14.7
4.6
114.2
0.7
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.0
1.3
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.1
0.8
0.2
6.0
9.5
8.3
6.4
5.3
5.7
32.0
6.0
10.1
14.7
4.8
116.6
0.7
0.1
0.4
0.5
0.0
1.3
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.1
0.8
0.2
6.2
9.6
8.4
6.5
5.4
5.8
33.6
5.9
10.1
14.8
4.9
118.9
0.7
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.0
1.2
0.6
0.5
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.1
0.8
0.2
6.3
9.7
8.5
6.6
5.5
5.8
34.8
5.9
10.1
14.9
5.1
120.8
0.7
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.0
1.2
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.1
0.8
0.2
6.5
9.8
8.6
6.7
5.6
5.9
35.9
5.9
10.0
15.1
5.2
122.5
0.7
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.0
1.2
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.1
0.7
0.2
6.6
9.8
8.7
6.7
5.7
5.9
36.7
5.9
10.0
15.3
5.3
123.9
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.0
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.7
0.2
6.9
9.8
9.0
6.9
5.8
6.1
38.8
6.0
10.1
16.1
5.6
127.6
0.5
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.7
0.2
7.3
9.8
9.1
7.0
5.9
6.3
41.3
6.1
10.2
16.9
5.9
131.8
0.5
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.9
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.7
0.2
7.6
9.7
9.3
7.0
6.0
6.6
43.6
6.1
10.2
17.7
6.2
135.4
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
-59.1
-100.0
13.0
0.0
81.9
-33.6
-14.3
72.0
26.0
-93.9
-16.1
-13.7
1.2
-5.4
-1.4
-3.6
-1.5
-3.8
-1.8
-4.0
-1.7
-4.0
-1.6
-3.8
-1.6
-3.7
-1.8
-4.0
-1.9
-4.3
-1.9
-4.6
9.9
5.3
0.7
-3.3
13.2
-6.2
9.1
16.7
6.0
-3.6
-15.8
-64.2
-1.2
36.1
9.0
-5.3
4.5
6.0
-3.1
35.1
4.0
-19.9
6.2
4.2
-17.1
0.8
7.5
2.8
2.9
55.6
-98.2
-7.5
-3.6
15.0
-18.1
15.4
-11.2
19.3
3.2
-16.5
8.7
3.5
-2.7
-9.8
-2.4
1.4
3.3
-3.1
-2.4
4.0
2.1
0.9
3.3
4.2
-51.8
-25.1
-1.2
-22.8
-3.5
6.9
-12.2
-7.1
-7.7
-35.1
7.9
163.2
9.2
-13.8
1.6
7.5
-0.5
16.1
10.7
-13.2
-6.5
3.9
-8.6
0.9
-9.2
-34.3
59.8
-11.1
-100.0
22.0
-28.0
-33.6
23.1
-23.2
-8.2
3.9
42.4
-24.5
-10.2
-0.2
8.0
4.9
-16.3
-15.1
4.7
-1.9
-8.0
-8.1
8.8
-2.4
-0.4
-4.1
-4.3
-5.4
0.0
-14.5
4.3
1.8
-8.6
-15.2
-9.8
-10.5
2.4
-5.1
-10.8
2.9
1.9
-6.0
2.4
-10.6
-5.0
3.3
2.7
0.7
3.5
-2.2
-1.0
-3.1
0.6
3.5
0.0
-6.2
0.8
5.6
-2.3
1.6
1.9
-4.5
1.6
6.9
-7.8
-0.3
-1.7
-1.7
3.5
4.2
3.6
-5.4
0.2
-2.7
6.4
0.1
-0.8
-9.4
-2.5
-7.7
0.0
-2.2
3.1
-1.7
-0.9
-1.1
-2.1
-3.3
-0.2
-3.9
2.8
0.6
0.8
-0.1
1.2
0.0
1.5
-1.8
-1.4
-0.8
-1.7
0.1
-1.1
-7.9
-0.3
-2.4
0.0
-1.1
1.8
1.6
-1.8
-0.6
-1.7
-3.9
-0.2
-1.9
2.6
1.3
2.1
1.9
2.1
2.3
4.7
-3.1
-1.3
0.1
2.5
1.7
-1.9
-8.6
0.1
-2.9
0.0
-1.5
2.4
2.0
-2.4
-0.9
-1.9
-3.8
-0.5
-1.9
3.1
1.5
2.2
2.0
2.5
2.0
5.5
-1.8
-1.2
0.4
3.0
2.1
-2.1
-8.8
-0.9
-3.1
0.0
-1.8
1.9
1.9
-2.7
-2.1
-2.2
-5.8
-0.6
-2.1
2.7
1.0
1.6
1.4
2.4
1.0
4.9
-1.0
-0.7
0.6
3.3
1.9
-2.3
-9.0
-1.4
-3.3
0.0
-2.0
0.9
0.9
-2.9
-3.0
-2.4
-6.9
-0.8
-2.0
2.4
0.8
1.4
1.3
2.0
0.7
3.7
-0.3
-0.3
0.9
3.1
1.6
-2.3
-9.0
-1.7
-3.3
0.0
-2.1
-0.3
0.3
-3.0
-3.1
-2.4
-7.3
-0.8
-1.8
2.3
0.7
1.3
1.2
1.5
0.8
3.1
0.0
-0.1
1.0
2.5
1.4
-2.3
-9.0
-1.7
-3.3
0.0
-2.1
-1.1
0.0
-3.0
-3.1
-2.4
-7.5
-0.8
-1.8
1.7
0.4
1.1
0.9
1.1
0.9
2.3
0.2
0.0
1.2
2.0
1.1
-2.3
-9.1
-1.7
-3.3
0.0
-2.1
-1.5
-0.1
-3.0
-3.1
-2.4
-8.2
-0.8
-1.8
1.3
0.1
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.8
1.6
0.4
0.1
1.3
1.5
0.8
-2.3
-9.1
-1.9
-3.3
0.0
-2.1
-1.6
-0.3
-3.0
-3.1
-2.4
-10.5
-0.8
-1.8
1.1
-0.1
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.7
1.3
0.3
0.1
1.1
1.1
0.6
-2.4
-10.7
-1.8
-3.3
0.0
-2.3
-1.8
-0.4
-3.3
-3.2
-2.4
-19.5
-0.7
-1.8
0.9
-0.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.9
1.1
0.2
0.1
0.8
1.0
0.6
Summary tables – Stockport
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
281.7
175.8
-1.1
282.0
175.3
-0.4
282.5
175.0
-0.2
283.6
175.3
0.4
284.7
175.2
0.3
285.8
175.3
0.3
286.7
175.2
0.2
287.6
175.2
0.2
288.4
175.0
0.1
289.1
174.8
0.0
289.7
174.6
0.0
290.3
174.4
0.0
290.8
174.2
0.0
293.2
173.4
0.1
296.1
172.9
0.2
298.7
172.8
0.1
123.2
20.3
143.5
127.1
136.0
79.0
-8.9
2.8
1.6
124.4
20.5
144.9
128.5
134.2
78.2
-5.6
2.9
1.6
126.2
23.2
149.4
135.2
131.7
76.9
3.4
3.4
1.9
122.7
20.2
142.9
128.9
129.0
75.1
-0.1
6.2
3.5
118.5
20.6
139.2
125.5
128.2
74.7
-2.8
6.0
3.4
117.9
19.7
137.6
124.0
127.3
74.1
-3.3
6.1
3.5
117.1
19.5
136.6
123.1
126.6
73.6
-3.5
6.4
3.7
118.1
19.7
137.9
124.3
127.9
74.4
-3.7
6.4
3.6
119.6
20.0
139.6
125.9
129.7
75.5
-3.9
6.1
3.5
121.0
20.2
141.2
127.3
131.3
76.5
-4.0
5.9
3.4
122.0
20.3
142.3
128.3
132.5
77.2
-4.2
5.7
3.2
122.8
20.4
143.3
129.1
133.4
77.8
-4.3
5.3
3.1
123.4
20.5
143.9
129.6
134.0
78.2
-4.4
5.1
2.9
124.1
20.9
145.0
130.5
134.8
79.0
-4.2
5.2
3.0
124.9
21.4
146.3
131.6
135.1
79.4
-3.5
5.4
3.1
126.0
21.9
147.9
132.9
135.2
79.4
-2.3
5.7
3.3
4650
99.6
4837
100.8
5054
100.7
5011
108.0
4941
106.9
4984
106.5
5037
106.3
5169
106.1
5307
105.9
5445
105.7
5575
105.6
5698
105.5
5822
105.5
6319
105.5
6984
105.5
7708
105.5
122
124106
123
124746
123
125049
124
126920
125
127120
127
127147
128
128325
129
129376
130
130413
130
131405
131
132347
132
133278
133
134176
137
137984
142
143018
147
148092
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.7
0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.6
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
4.3
10.6
5.1
5.5
-0.7
-0.6
7.6
15.2
0.2
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.1
-1.3
-0.9
3.2
3.3
0.1
1.4
13.4
3.1
5.2
-1.8
-1.3
9.1
16.2
0.3
-2.8
-12.8
-4.3
-4.6
-2.1
-1.7
-3.5
84.8
1.6
-3.4
1.8
-2.6
-2.7
-0.6
-0.4
-2.7
-3.4
-0.1
-0.5
-4.6
-1.1
-1.2
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
1.4
0.0
-0.7
-0.8
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.4
-0.1
6.1
0.2
0.9
1.1
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.8
-0.2
-1.4
-0.1
1.3
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.1
-0.2
-4.4
-0.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.0
-0.2
-3.3
-0.1
0.8
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.7
-0.2
-3.5
-0.1
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.6
-0.1
-5.8
-0.2
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
-0.1
-4.0
-0.1
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
1.1
0.0
6.6
1.1
4.0
1.2
4.5
-0.1
-0.8
7.2
-1.4
-1.0
0.9
-0.5
1.1
-0.1
2.6
-0.2
2.7
-0.3
2.6
-0.1
2.4
-0.1
2.2
-0.1
2.2
0.0
2.1
0.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.2
0.7
1.5
0.9
0.2
0.9
0.0
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Stockport (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.0
1.7
0.7
0.2
2.5
0.0
0.4
0.9
0.2
1.3
1.5
2.2
1.0
0.6
0.1
9.0
10.1
13.9
6.6
5.7
5.6
23.3
5.3
9.6
14.1
6.2
123.2
1.7
0.6
0.2
2.6
0.0
0.5
0.8
0.1
1.2
1.4
2.3
1.3
0.6
0.1
9.0
10.4
13.7
6.5
5.4
4.5
24.2
6.9
8.8
15.4
5.5
124.4
1.8
0.3
0.1
2.6
0.0
0.8
0.9
0.1
1.1
1.3
2.2
1.3
0.6
0.2
12.6
9.2
13.6
5.5
6.7
5.2
23.2
5.6
9.5
15.4
6.1
126.2
1.7
0.5
0.2
2.4
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.1
1.2
1.1
2.2
1.3
0.6
3.4
6.6
8.2
13.0
5.6
4.5
5.3
24.9
6.9
9.1
15.7
6.8
122.7
1.7
0.5
0.2
2.2
0.0
0.4
0.5
0.1
1.1
0.9
2.0
1.2
0.6
3.2
5.8
8.5
13.1
5.2
4.5
4.8
23.0
7.1
9.2
15.6
6.9
118.5
1.7
0.5
0.2
2.3
0.0
0.4
0.5
0.1
1.1
0.9
2.1
1.1
0.6
3.4
5.3
8.5
12.7
5.1
4.5
4.9
23.6
6.7
9.2
15.0
7.2
117.9
1.7
0.4
0.2
2.2
0.0
0.4
0.5
0.1
1.1
0.9
2.0
1.1
0.6
3.3
5.5
8.5
12.8
5.0
4.5
4.8
23.8
6.5
9.0
14.7
7.0
117.1
1.7
0.4
0.2
2.1
0.0
0.4
0.5
0.1
1.1
0.9
2.0
1.1
0.6
3.2
5.7
8.7
12.9
5.1
4.6
4.9
24.7
6.3
8.9
14.6
7.1
118.1
1.6
0.4
0.2
2.1
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.1
1.0
0.9
2.0
1.2
0.6
3.2
5.9
8.8
13.1
5.2
4.7
4.9
25.9
6.2
8.7
14.5
7.3
119.6
1.6
0.3
0.2
2.0
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.1
1.0
0.9
1.9
1.1
0.6
3.1
6.1
8.9
13.3
5.2
4.8
4.9
27.0
6.1
8.6
14.5
7.4
121.0
1.6
0.3
0.2
1.9
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.1
1.0
0.8
1.9
1.1
0.6
3.1
6.3
9.0
13.4
5.3
4.8
4.9
27.8
6.1
8.6
14.5
7.6
122.0
1.5
0.3
0.2
1.9
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.1
0.9
0.8
1.8
1.1
0.6
3.0
6.5
9.1
13.5
5.3
4.9
4.9
28.5
6.1
8.5
14.5
7.7
122.8
1.5
0.3
0.2
1.8
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.1
0.9
0.8
1.8
1.1
0.6
3.0
6.6
9.1
13.6
5.3
4.9
4.9
29.0
6.1
8.5
14.5
7.7
123.4
1.3
0.2
0.1
1.6
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.1
0.8
0.7
1.6
1.0
0.6
2.8
7.1
9.2
13.6
5.3
4.9
5.0
30.0
6.1
8.4
14.7
7.8
124.1
1.2
0.1
0.1
1.4
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.7
0.6
1.4
0.8
0.5
2.6
7.7
9.2
13.6
5.3
4.9
5.0
31.3
6.1
8.3
14.9
7.9
124.9
1.0
0.1
0.1
1.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.6
0.5
1.2
0.7
0.5
2.4
8.4
9.3
13.6
5.2
4.9
5.1
32.7
6.2
8.2
15.1
8.0
126.0
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
88.9
48.0
15.7
1.3
-13.0
-36.9
-14.5
14.7
26.0
-27.2
-16.1
-13.7
1.2
-5.4
-1.4
-3.6
-1.5
-3.8
-1.8
-4.0
-1.7
-4.0
-1.6
-3.8
-1.6
-3.7
-1.8
-4.0
-1.9
-4.3
-1.9
-4.6
-6.3
29.5
4.1
16.1
-41.0
-29.0
-0.2
-11.9
7.1
0.2
-10.1
-24.6
24.7
119.1
70.0
4.4
2.7
-4.6
1.9
-11.2
26.7
-9.2
-3.7
-9.9
-14.7
4.3
-1.5
-11.1
36.8
2.8
57.6
25.0
-13.1
-42.2
-4.4
-6.9
2.3
36.9
-2.0
59.7
-0.1
3.5
-1.5
-1.8
-4.3
-19.1
3.8
28.8
-8.6
9.3
-10.3
1.0
6.4
-47.7
-55.3
-0.8
8.4
44.6
9.3
9.7
-11.5
-11.6
-5.4
-1.4
-1.2
84.3
39.2
-11.6
-0.5
-14.3
23.9
14.1
-3.9
-18.8
7.4
-0.4
10.3
1.4
-2.9
60.6
71.4
-7.3
4.9
-33.3
-45.5
-27.5
11.8
-16.8
2.9
-4.9
0.4
1476.0
-47.7
-10.8
-4.8
1.5
-32.8
2.7
7.1
24.3
-3.8
2.3
11.7
-2.8
-0.5
-1.1
-4.3
-5.1
-19.9
-18.5
4.3
-1.3
-8.4
-15.2
-9.4
-7.2
2.4
-7.1
-12.2
3.1
0.6
-7.2
-1.2
-10.4
-7.7
2.2
1.4
-1.0
1.5
-3.4
-0.8
-2.6
0.6
3.8
7.8
-8.6
0.8
2.4
-2.5
1.6
3.7
-2.3
1.6
7.5
-7.4
-0.1
-2.5
-2.5
1.1
2.1
2.7
-5.9
-0.5
-3.8
4.7
-0.5
-0.9
-8.3
-2.5
-7.5
-3.5
-3.0
3.1
-4.7
-1.0
-1.1
-2.2
0.6
-0.2
-3.5
3.3
0.8
0.2
-0.7
0.4
-0.9
0.8
-2.1
-1.9
-1.7
-2.9
-0.7
-1.2
-6.8
-0.3
-2.2
-1.9
-1.9
1.8
-1.6
-1.9
-0.6
-1.8
0.1
-0.2
-1.5
3.1
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.4
4.0
-3.3
-1.8
-0.8
1.3
0.9
-2.0
-7.5
0.1
-2.6
-2.2
-2.3
2.4
-1.2
-2.5
-0.9
-2.0
0.5
-0.5
-1.5
3.7
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.9
1.1
4.8
-2.0
-1.7
-0.6
1.9
1.3
-2.2
-7.7
-0.9
-2.8
-2.2
-2.5
1.9
-1.4
-2.8
-2.1
-2.3
-1.5
-0.6
-1.7
3.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.7
0.2
4.2
-1.2
-1.0
-0.3
2.2
1.1
-2.4
-7.9
-1.4
-3.0
-2.2
-2.8
0.9
-2.4
-3.1
-3.0
-2.4
-2.4
-0.8
-1.7
2.9
1.0
0.9
0.7
1.4
-0.1
3.0
-0.5
-0.7
0.0
2.0
0.8
-2.4
-7.9
-1.7
-3.0
-2.2
-2.9
-0.3
-3.1
-3.2
-3.1
-2.5
-2.5
-0.8
-1.5
2.8
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.9
0.0
2.4
-0.2
-0.6
0.1
1.4
0.7
-2.4
-7.9
-1.7
-3.0
-2.2
-2.9
-1.1
-3.3
-3.2
-3.1
-2.5
-2.5
-0.8
-1.4
2.3
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.1
1.7
-0.1
-0.5
0.3
0.8
0.4
-2.4
-7.9
-1.7
-3.0
-2.2
-2.9
-1.5
-3.6
-3.2
-3.1
-2.5
-2.5
-0.8
-1.4
1.9
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
1.0
0.1
-0.3
0.3
0.4
0.2
-2.4
-7.9
-1.9
-3.0
-2.2
-2.9
-1.6
-4.2
-3.2
-3.1
-2.5
-2.5
-0.8
-1.5
1.7
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.9
0.1
-0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
-2.5
-9.0
-1.8
-3.1
-2.3
-3.0
-1.8
-4.9
-3.5
-3.2
-2.5
-2.6
-0.7
-1.5
1.6
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.5
0.8
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
Summary tables - Tameside
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
213.2
135.7
-0.3
213.2
135.6
-0.4
214.4
135.8
0.4
215.3
136.0
0.2
216.8
136.5
0.4
218.1
136.6
0.3
219.2
136.6
0.2
220.3
136.5
0.1
221.3
136.4
0.0
222.4
136.4
0.0
223.5
136.4
0.0
224.7
136.5
0.1
225.9
136.6
0.1
230.5
136.6
0.0
235.2
136.5
0.0
238.8
136.7
-0.1
72.4
11.4
83.7
78.6
96.1
72.4
-17.4
3.2
2.4
71.5
11.5
83.0
77.9
96.2
72.6
-18.3
3.3
2.4
67.6
11.7
79.3
76.1
96.4
72.6
-20.4
3.7
2.7
69.5
11.5
81.0
77.0
93.8
70.5
-16.8
6.6
4.8
68.9
12.0
80.9
76.8
93.4
69.9
-16.6
6.4
4.7
68.4
11.5
79.9
75.9
92.7
69.3
-16.8
6.8
5.0
67.8
11.4
79.3
75.3
92.2
68.8
-16.9
7.2
5.3
68.0
11.5
79.5
75.5
92.8
69.3
-17.2
7.1
5.2
68.4
11.6
80.0
76.0
93.6
69.8
-17.6
6.7
4.9
68.7
11.7
80.4
76.3
94.3
70.3
-17.9
6.4
4.7
68.9
11.7
80.6
76.5
94.7
70.6
-18.2
6.2
4.5
69.1
11.7
80.8
76.7
95.1
70.8
-18.5
5.8
4.2
69.1
11.7
80.8
76.7
95.4
71.0
-18.7
5.5
4.0
68.8
11.7
80.5
76.3
95.4
71.0
-19.1
5.5
4.0
68.1
11.7
79.8
75.5
94.9
70.7
-19.3
5.6
4.1
67.4
11.6
79.0
74.8
94.1
70.1
-19.3
5.8
4.2
2743
100.7
2722
99.0
2612
98.1
2620
99.5
2685
99.9
2714
99.8
2738
99.6
2798
99.6
2860
99.6
2919
99.5
2974
99.4
3025
99.3
3076
99.2
3284
98.7
3549
98.3
3823
97.9
93
96912
93
97210
94
97885
94
97730
95
97980
96
98337
97
99339
98
100350
99
101340
100
102325
101
103342
102
104324
103
105316
107
109016
111
113339
115
117536
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.1
0.8
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.7
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.0
-0.1
0.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
-1.4
-4.8
-1.9
-2.1
-0.5
-0.7
-1.2
13.1
0.3
-1.2
1.1
-0.9
-0.9
0.1
0.2
-0.8
1.8
0.0
-5.4
1.7
-4.4
-2.4
0.2
0.1
-2.1
13.9
0.3
2.9
-1.7
2.2
1.2
-2.8
-2.2
3.6
77.0
2.1
-0.9
4.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.4
-0.6
0.3
-2.8
-0.2
-0.8
-3.9
-1.3
-1.3
-0.8
-0.6
-0.3
7.1
0.3
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.1
6.1
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.4
-0.3
-2.1
-0.1
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.9
0.6
-0.4
-5.3
-0.3
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.5
-0.3
-4.1
-0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.3
-0.3
-4.2
-0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
-0.2
-6.4
-0.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
-0.2
-4.5
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.9
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.1
1.7
-0.8
-1.6
-4.1
-1.0
0.3
1.5
2.5
0.4
1.1
-0.1
0.9
-0.2
2.2
-0.1
2.2
0.0
2.1
0.0
1.9
-0.1
1.7
-0.1
1.7
-0.1
1.7
-0.1
1.6
-0.1
1.5
-0.1
0.5
1.0
0.4
0.3
0.9
0.7
0.7
-0.2
1.1
0.3
1.0
0.4
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents
the number
ofunless
jobs in
an area,
but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
* percentage
changes
otherwise
noted
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Tameside (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
2.9
1.7
0.3
1.2
0.0
1.3
1.6
0.6
2.2
1.4
0.7
0.5
1.6
0.3
3.8
5.4
9.2
4.0
2.4
1.0
7.4
3.6
6.4
9.4
3.4
72.4
2.3
1.7
0.3
1.1
0.0
0.9
1.5
0.4
2.0
1.6
0.8
0.4
1.7
0.4
3.9
6.1
8.6
3.9
2.2
0.8
7.1
3.8
7.1
9.1
3.4
71.5
2.3
0.9
0.2
1.0
0.0
0.8
1.3
0.4
1.9
1.3
0.8
0.4
1.6
0.1
4.2
5.7
8.7
3.0
2.6
0.8
6.6
3.4
6.7
8.9
3.7
67.6
1.8
1.0
0.3
0.9
0.0
0.9
1.2
0.4
2.2
1.2
0.7
0.9
2.0
0.7
3.3
5.2
8.7
3.3
2.4
0.8
6.8
4.9
6.2
9.8
3.8
69.5
1.8
1.0
0.3
0.8
0.0
0.8
1.3
0.4
2.1
1.0
0.6
0.8
2.1
0.7
3.0
5.3
8.8
3.1
2.4
0.7
6.7
5.0
6.3
9.7
3.9
68.9
1.8
1.0
0.3
0.9
0.0
0.8
1.3
0.4
2.0
1.0
0.7
0.8
2.1
0.8
2.8
5.3
8.6
3.0
2.5
0.7
7.0
4.7
6.3
9.4
4.1
68.4
1.7
0.9
0.3
0.8
0.0
0.8
1.4
0.4
2.0
1.0
0.6
0.8
2.1
0.7
2.9
5.4
8.6
3.0
2.5
0.7
7.1
4.6
6.2
9.2
4.0
67.8
1.7
0.9
0.3
0.8
0.0
0.8
1.4
0.4
2.0
1.0
0.6
0.8
2.1
0.7
2.9
5.5
8.7
3.0
2.5
0.7
7.3
4.5
6.1
9.2
4.0
68.0
1.7
0.8
0.3
0.8
0.0
0.8
1.4
0.4
1.9
1.0
0.6
0.8
2.1
0.7
3.0
5.6
8.9
3.1
2.5
0.7
7.6
4.4
6.0
9.1
4.1
68.4
1.6
0.8
0.3
0.7
0.0
0.7
1.4
0.4
1.9
1.0
0.6
0.8
2.1
0.7
3.0
5.6
9.0
3.1
2.6
0.7
7.9
4.3
6.0
9.1
4.2
68.7
1.6
0.7
0.3
0.7
0.0
0.7
1.5
0.4
1.8
1.0
0.6
0.8
2.0
0.7
3.1
5.7
9.1
3.1
2.6
0.7
8.1
4.3
6.0
9.1
4.3
68.9
1.5
0.7
0.3
0.7
0.0
0.7
1.5
0.4
1.8
0.9
0.6
0.7
2.0
0.7
3.1
5.7
9.2
3.2
2.6
0.6
8.2
4.3
5.9
9.2
4.4
69.1
1.5
0.6
0.3
0.7
0.0
0.7
1.5
0.4
1.7
0.9
0.6
0.7
2.0
0.7
3.1
5.8
9.3
3.2
2.6
0.6
8.3
4.3
5.9
9.2
4.4
69.1
1.3
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.0
0.6
1.4
0.4
1.5
0.8
0.5
0.7
1.9
0.6
3.2
5.8
9.5
3.2
2.6
0.6
8.4
4.3
5.9
9.5
4.5
68.8
1.2
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.3
0.3
1.3
0.7
0.5
0.6
1.9
0.6
3.2
5.8
9.5
3.2
2.6
0.6
8.6
4.3
5.9
9.7
4.6
68.1
1.0
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.5
1.2
0.3
1.1
0.6
0.5
0.5
1.8
0.5
3.2
5.8
9.6
3.2
2.5
0.5
8.8
4.3
5.9
9.9
4.7
67.4
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
91.7
317.2
8.2
-100.0
16.2
0.0
-9.7
1.6
26.0
-11.6
-16.1
-8.1
1.2
-4.8
-1.4
-3.1
-1.5
-3.2
-1.8
-3.5
-1.7
-3.4
-1.6
-3.2
-1.6
-3.1
-1.8
-3.4
-1.9
-3.8
-1.9
-4.0
-16.6
-3.6
6.3
12.1
-23.6
66.1
6.6
0.7
0.6
-8.4
-1.7
12.9
19.4
19.7
-2.6
-3.9
0.2
-1.0
0.8
1.0
-20.6
7.9
-0.2
6.1
-1.8
-1.4
-20.0
-1.1
2.1
-7.5
-17.8
-29.0
-7.3
-27.5
-8.7
14.8
9.2
-12.3
5.2
15.0
3.5
13.2
-6.2
-1.5
-9.2
-15.6
-3.1
5.5
10.6
-3.2
2.2
-1.2
1.8
-45.6
-34.4
-16.0
-9.6
-8.9
-15.0
2.0
-5.9
-21.1
-1.9
-0.6
-6.9
-67.9
7.3
-5.4
1.4
-23.4
19.2
-3.6
-6.7
-11.0
-6.1
-2.2
7.1
-5.4
-22.6
7.3
72.5
-7.4
-95.3
6.6
-3.6
-15.0
17.9
-7.2
-11.2
109.4
26.2
480.6
-21.3
-9.6
-0.1
10.2
-9.8
-0.6
2.7
44.9
-6.5
10.0
2.6
2.9
-0.8
2.0
-4.3
-5.4
-19.9
-5.9
4.6
0.9
-7.5
-15.0
-9.1
-7.2
2.4
5.4
-8.3
3.1
0.9
-6.9
2.0
-10.3
-2.3
2.2
1.7
-0.7
2.2
-0.9
-1.4
-2.4
0.6
3.5
7.8
-2.9
1.1
4.6
-2.6
1.9
2.2
-2.1
1.6
6.2
-6.4
-0.1
-2.3
-2.3
1.6
0.2
5.1
-6.0
-0.3
-3.6
5.3
-0.8
-1.2
-7.4
-2.5
-7.7
-3.5
-2.9
3.4
-2.6
-0.8
-0.8
-1.4
0.6
-0.2
-3.6
1.8
0.8
0.4
-0.5
0.4
-2.2
0.5
-2.1
-1.6
-1.5
-2.6
-0.8
-1.5
-6.0
-0.3
-2.4
-1.9
-1.7
2.1
0.7
-1.7
-0.3
-1.0
0.1
-0.2
-1.5
1.7
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.2
-0.3
3.8
-3.5
-1.6
-0.7
1.4
0.3
-2.3
-6.7
0.1
-2.9
-2.2
-2.1
2.7
1.1
-2.3
-0.6
-1.3
0.4
-0.5
-1.6
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.6
1.5
-0.8
4.2
-2.1
-1.5
-0.4
2.0
0.5
-2.6
-6.9
-0.9
-3.1
-2.2
-2.3
2.2
1.1
-2.6
-1.8
-1.6
-1.5
-0.6
-1.8
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.2
1.4
-1.6
3.4
-1.3
-0.8
0.0
2.4
0.5
-2.8
-7.1
-1.4
-3.3
-2.2
-2.6
1.2
0.1
-2.8
-2.6
-1.7
-2.4
-0.8
-1.7
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.1
-1.8
2.2
-0.6
-0.5
0.3
2.2
0.3
-2.8
-7.1
-1.7
-3.3
-2.2
-2.7
0.0
-0.6
-3.0
-2.8
-1.8
-2.5
-0.8
-1.5
1.0
0.9
1.1
0.9
0.6
-1.6
1.8
-0.2
-0.3
0.4
1.7
0.2
-2.8
-7.1
-1.7
-3.3
-2.2
-2.7
-0.8
-0.8
-3.0
-2.8
-1.8
-2.5
-0.8
-1.5
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.3
-1.5
1.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
1.1
0.1
-2.8
-7.1
-1.7
-3.3
-2.2
-2.7
-1.2
-0.9
-3.0
-2.8
-1.9
-2.5
-0.8
-1.5
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.0
-1.4
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.7
-0.1
-2.8
-7.1
-1.9
-3.3
-2.2
-2.7
-1.4
-1.1
-3.0
-2.8
-1.9
-2.5
-0.8
-1.5
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.3
-1.5
0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.4
-0.2
-2.9
-8.0
-1.8
-3.3
-2.3
-2.9
-1.6
-1.1
-3.2
-2.9
-1.9
-2.6
-0.7
-1.5
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.3
-1.3
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.3
-0.2
Summary tables - Trafford
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
212.6
133.8
0.0
213.3
134.1
-0.2
213.8
133.9
-0.5
215.3
134.4
0.5
217.3
135.4
1.0
219.0
135.6
0.7
220.2
135.4
0.3
221.2
135.2
0.1
222.1
135.0
0.0
223.0
134.8
0.1
223.8
134.7
0.0
224.9
134.8
0.2
225.7
134.7
0.1
229.0
134.5
0.1
231.3
133.6
-0.1
231.8
132.2
-0.5
125.8
12.7
138.5
111.6
104.7
79.8
6.9
2.4
1.8
125.7
13.0
138.8
110.5
106.1
80.7
4.4
2.3
1.7
124.1
13.0
137.1
109.5
103.6
79.0
5.9
2.5
1.9
124.8
13.3
138.1
112.4
101.5
77.0
10.9
4.5
3.3
123.5
14.0
137.5
111.9
100.0
75.3
11.9
4.5
3.3
124.3
13.4
137.7
111.8
100.2
75.3
11.6
4.6
3.4
124.5
13.4
137.9
111.9
100.4
75.5
11.6
5.0
3.7
126.6
13.6
140.2
113.7
101.9
76.7
11.9
4.9
3.7
129.3
13.8
143.2
116.1
103.7
78.2
12.4
4.8
3.5
131.9
14.0
145.9
118.2
105.5
79.6
12.8
4.6
3.4
133.9
14.1
148.0
119.9
106.8
80.6
13.0
4.5
3.4
135.6
14.2
149.8
121.2
108.0
81.4
13.2
4.3
3.2
136.7
14.3
151.0
122.0
108.8
82.1
13.2
4.1
3.1
138.0
14.5
152.5
122.9
110.3
83.3
12.5
4.2
3.1
138.2
14.6
152.8
122.6
111.2
84.6
11.4
4.3
3.2
137.8
14.5
152.3
121.8
111.5
85.7
10.3
4.5
3.4
5195
115.3
5321
115.7
5240
113.7
5369
119.7
5456
119.5
5563
118.7
5668
118.6
5865
118.4
6065
118.0
6271
117.8
6464
117.7
6644
117.7
6818
117.8
7435
118.0
8172
118.2
8918
118.5
93
94603
93
95328
94
95815
95
96580
96
96860
97
97119
98
98499
99
99655
100
100715
101
101677
102
102620
103
103487
104
104399
107
107701
110
111295
113
114411
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
0.3
0.7
0.1
0.3
0.2
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.7
0.4
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.8
0.1
-0.3
0.6
-0.1
-0.4
0.5
-0.2
-0.2
0.4
-0.2
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
3.1
-2.6
2.5
3.7
1.4
0.6
2.5
11.9
0.2
0.0
2.5
0.2
-1.0
1.3
0.8
-2.5
-2.4
0.0
-1.3
0.0
-1.2
-0.8
-2.3
-1.7
1.5
8.9
0.2
0.5
2.0
0.7
2.6
-2.1
-2.0
5.0
80.2
1.5
-1.0
5.1
-0.4
-0.5
-1.5
-1.7
1.0
-0.9
-0.1
0.6
-3.8
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.3
3.7
0.1
0.2
-0.5
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
-0.1
7.4
0.3
1.7
1.4
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.2
0.3
-0.6
0.0
2.2
1.9
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.5
0.5
-3.6
-0.1
2.0
1.4
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.3
0.4
-2.4
-0.1
1.5
0.7
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.1
0.2
-2.9
-0.1
1.3
0.7
1.2
1.1
1.1
0.8
0.2
-5.2
-0.2
0.8
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.0
-3.6
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
-0.1
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
-0.2
0.7
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.9
0.0
3.5
0.7
2.4
0.4
-1.5
-2.0
2.5
6.0
1.6
-0.2
2.0
-0.8
1.9
-0.2
3.5
-0.1
3.4
-0.4
3.4
-0.2
3.1
-0.1
2.8
0.0
2.6
0.1
2.3
0.1
1.9
0.0
1.8
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.5
0.5
1.0
0.8
1.1
0.3
1.4
0.3
1.2
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.1
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.6
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents
the number
of jobs
in otherwise
an area, noted
but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
* percentage
changes
unless
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Trafford (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
4.0
0.3
0.1
2.5
0.2
1.0
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.7
1.1
0.4
0.6
0.2
7.6
9.6
15.6
6.4
8.3
4.4
35.4
4.6
5.7
8.5
6.1
125.8
3.3
0.3
0.1
1.9
0.1
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.5
0.6
0.6
8.0
10.3
16.2
6.4
7.0
3.1
36.4
4.3
6.4
9.3
6.3
125.7
3.6
0.3
0.1
1.8
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.6
1.1
0.5
0.6
0.2
7.7
10.3
15.6
6.3
6.7
3.2
35.6
4.5
6.4
10.0
6.4
124.1
3.5
0.3
0.2
1.0
0.3
1.7
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.6
1.0
0.6
0.6
1.5
6.6
9.4
15.1
6.1
6.4
3.6
35.6
5.1
6.8
10.1
6.7
124.8
3.5
0.3
0.2
0.9
0.2
1.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.6
1.6
6.1
9.7
15.3
5.6
6.4
3.4
35.1
5.2
7.0
10.0
6.9
123.5
3.5
0.3
0.2
1.0
0.2
1.3
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.5
1.0
0.6
0.6
1.7
5.7
9.7
14.9
5.5
6.4
3.5
36.7
4.9
7.0
9.7
7.3
124.3
3.4
0.3
0.2
0.9
0.2
1.2
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.5
1.0
0.6
0.6
1.6
5.9
9.8
15.0
5.5
6.5
3.5
37.4
4.8
6.9
9.6
7.2
124.5
3.4
0.2
0.2
0.9
0.2
1.2
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.6
1.6
6.0
9.9
15.2
5.6
6.6
3.6
39.1
4.7
6.8
9.5
7.3
126.6
3.3
0.2
0.2
0.9
0.2
1.2
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.6
1.6
6.2
10.1
15.5
5.7
6.8
3.6
41.1
4.5
6.7
9.4
7.5
129.3
3.3
0.2
0.2
0.9
0.2
1.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.6
1.6
6.3
10.2
15.7
5.7
6.9
3.7
43.1
4.5
6.7
9.4
7.7
131.9
3.2
0.2
0.2
0.9
0.2
1.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.9
0.5
0.6
1.5
6.5
10.3
15.9
5.8
7.0
3.7
44.6
4.5
6.7
9.5
7.9
133.9
3.1
0.2
0.2
0.8
0.2
1.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.9
0.5
0.6
1.5
6.6
10.4
16.0
5.8
7.1
3.7
45.8
4.4
6.7
9.5
8.1
135.6
3.0
0.2
0.2
0.8
0.2
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.9
0.5
0.6
1.5
6.7
10.4
16.1
5.9
7.2
3.7
46.6
4.4
6.7
9.5
8.2
136.7
2.8
0.1
0.1
0.8
0.2
0.9
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.8
0.5
0.6
1.4
6.8
10.5
16.3
5.9
7.2
3.7
47.9
4.4
6.8
9.7
8.6
138.0
2.5
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.2
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.7
0.4
0.5
1.3
6.8
10.5
16.3
5.8
7.1
3.6
49.0
4.4
6.8
9.8
8.9
138.2
2.2
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.5
1.2
6.8
10.5
16.1
5.8
7.0
3.6
49.6
4.4
6.8
9.9
9.1
137.8
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
31.0
-18.9
2.9
-55.8
20.5
-3.0
-11.5
35.5
26.0
-27.2
-16.1
-13.7
1.2
-5.4
-1.4
-3.6
-1.5
-3.8
-1.8
-4.0
-1.7
-4.0
-1.6
-3.8
-1.6
-3.7
-1.8
-4.0
-1.9
-4.3
-1.9
-4.6
-1.5
2.9
16.0
8.4
9.1
-19.3
-0.8
22.2
-1.7
-13.1
-10.4
-0.7
1.1
168.7
-2.2
-3.1
6.2
8.5
7.2
-8.4
7.5
-6.4
3.4
5.4
-2.5
3.1
-16.9
-0.4
8.9
-23.4
-41.1
-26.3
-6.3
-29.3
-12.5
27.7
-2.0
5.7
1.1
134.6
5.5
7.2
3.7
0.7
-16.0
-29.9
2.7
-6.9
11.8
9.9
3.3
0.0
8.6
14.2
-24.2
-7.3
-8.7
-16.6
-2.3
-13.3
2.9
-25.7
10.0
5.8
-1.5
-69.0
-4.4
0.0
-3.8
-2.4
-3.5
4.2
-2.3
3.4
0.3
7.1
1.9
-1.3
-1.7
5.5
85.2
-45.7
115.1
169.5
-10.4
10.6
-2.7
-12.2
-9.2
16.5
5.3
744.6
-13.5
-8.3
-2.9
-3.6
-5.2
13.0
0.2
14.7
7.1
1.1
4.3
0.5
-0.4
-6.9
-5.9
-4.1
-18.8
-18.6
4.3
0.9
-9.0
-15.2
-9.7
-6.9
2.4
10.5
-7.5
3.1
1.1
-6.7
-0.1
-5.8
-1.4
2.4
2.3
-0.5
2.8
-1.0
-1.0
-0.7
-1.2
4.8
9.2
-8.9
0.8
4.6
-2.1
1.6
3.4
1.9
1.6
5.6
-6.9
-0.1
-2.1
-2.1
0.9
3.8
4.6
-5.8
0.3
-3.4
6.1
0.6
-0.8
-8.3
-4.2
-6.5
-2.2
-3.5
3.1
-2.6
-0.9
-1.1
-1.8
0.9
-0.2
-3.7
3.0
0.8
0.4
-0.5
0.9
-0.5
1.7
-2.1
-1.3
-1.5
-2.0
0.2
-1.1
-6.8
-2.2
-1.2
-0.6
-2.4
1.8
0.7
-1.8
-0.6
-1.4
0.4
-0.2
-1.6
2.3
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.9
1.9
4.5
-3.5
-1.3
-0.7
2.1
1.7
-1.9
-7.5
-1.8
-1.7
-0.9
-2.8
2.4
1.1
-2.4
-0.9
-1.6
0.8
-0.5
-1.6
2.8
1.6
1.7
1.6
2.4
1.6
5.3
-2.2
-1.2
-0.5
2.6
2.2
-2.1
-7.7
-2.8
-1.9
-0.9
-3.0
1.9
1.1
-2.7
-2.1
-1.9
-1.2
-0.6
-1.9
2.5
1.2
1.3
1.1
2.2
0.6
4.7
-1.3
-0.5
-0.1
3.0
2.0
-2.3
-7.9
-3.3
-2.1
-0.9
-3.3
0.9
0.1
-2.9
-3.0
-2.1
-2.1
-0.8
-1.8
2.1
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.7
0.2
3.5
-0.7
-0.2
0.2
2.8
1.5
-2.3
-7.9
-3.6
-2.1
-1.0
-3.4
-0.3
-0.6
-3.1
-3.1
-2.2
-2.2
-0.8
-1.6
1.9
0.8
1.0
0.9
1.2
0.2
2.7
-0.3
0.0
0.4
2.2
1.3
-2.3
-7.9
-3.7
-2.1
-1.0
-3.4
-1.1
-0.8
-3.1
-3.1
-2.2
-2.2
-0.8
-1.5
1.2
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.2
1.9
-0.2
0.1
0.5
1.6
0.8
-2.3
-7.9
-3.8
-2.2
-1.0
-3.4
-1.5
-0.9
-3.1
-3.1
-2.1
-2.2
-0.8
-1.6
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.9
0.0
0.2
0.5
1.1
0.4
-2.3
-8.0
-4.2
-2.2
-1.1
-3.4
-1.6
-1.1
-3.1
-3.1
-2.1
-2.2
-0.8
-1.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.7
0.0
-2.4
-9.0
-4.6
-2.2
-1.1
-3.6
-1.8
-1.1
-3.3
-3.2
-2.2
-2.3
-0.7
-1.6
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.1
0.1
0.6
-0.1
Summary tables - Wigan
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
304.1
193.7
-0.2
304.1
193.0
-0.3
305.4
192.5
0.4
306.5
192.3
0.3
307.6
192.0
0.2
308.9
192.0
0.3
310.1
191.9
0.3
311.3
191.7
0.2
312.4
191.3
0.1
313.5
190.9
0.1
314.5
190.4
0.1
315.6
190.0
0.1
316.6
189.6
0.1
320.7
188.4
0.3
324.8
188.0
0.4
327.7
187.8
0.2
103.2
15.1
118.3
109.1
132.1
69.6
-23.1
5.1
2.6
101.6
15.5
117.1
107.9
133.4
70.6
-25.5
4.7
2.4
97.5
15.1
112.6
106.2
133.7
70.9
-27.5
5.4
2.8
98.8
15.1
114.0
106.7
133.5
70.9
-26.9
9.5
5.0
97.1
15.6
112.7
105.6
131.1
69.7
-25.5
8.9
4.6
96.1
14.9
111.1
103.9
129.5
68.8
-25.6
9.4
4.9
95.6
14.8
110.4
103.3
128.9
68.5
-25.7
9.9
5.2
96.3
14.9
111.3
104.1
130.1
69.2
-26.0
9.7
5.0
97.4
15.1
112.5
105.3
131.6
70.1
-26.4
9.1
4.7
98.4
15.2
113.6
106.3
133.0
70.9
-26.7
8.7
4.5
99.2
15.3
114.5
107.1
134.1
71.6
-27.0
8.2
4.3
99.8
15.3
115.1
107.7
135.0
72.2
-27.3
7.7
4.0
100.2
15.3
115.6
108.1
135.6
72.7
-27.5
7.3
3.8
100.8
15.5
116.2
108.6
136.8
73.8
-28.2
7.0
3.7
101.0
15.5
116.6
108.8
137.7
74.4
-28.9
6.8
3.6
101.3
15.6
116.9
109.0
138.5
74.9
-29.5
6.8
3.6
3745
97.3
3667
94.5
3586
94.8
3467
93.7
3516
93.9
3556
94.1
3591
93.8
3685
93.7
3781
93.6
3875
93.5
3962
93.3
4045
93.2
4126
93.1
4447
92.6
4861
92.2
5298
91.7
130
134669
131
135948
132
137788
133
135950
134
136450
135
136543
137
137943
138
139301
139
140628
140
141923
142
143196
143
144460
144
145680
149
150387
154
156160
160
161748
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.0
-0.3
-0.2
0.4
-0.2
0.8
0.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
2.4
2.1
2.4
2.5
-1.7
-1.3
4.9
16.8
0.4
-1.5
2.2
-1.1
-1.1
1.0
0.9
-2.4
-7.0
-0.2
-4.1
-2.1
-3.8
-1.6
0.2
0.3
-2.0
15.4
0.4
1.4
0.0
1.2
0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.6
74.9
2.1
-1.7
3.2
-1.1
-1.0
-1.8
-1.3
1.4
-6.5
-0.3
-1.0
-4.5
-1.5
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.1
5.0
0.2
-0.6
-1.1
-0.6
-0.6
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
6.1
0.3
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.7
-0.3
-2.7
-0.1
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
0.9
-0.4
-5.9
-0.3
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.8
-0.3
-4.7
-0.2
0.8
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
-0.3
-4.8
-0.2
0.6
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.6
-0.3
-7.1
-0.3
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
-0.2
-5.2
-0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
-0.2
-1.8
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
1.8
-0.8
-2.1
-2.7
-2.2
0.3
-3.3
-1.1
1.4
0.2
1.1
0.2
1.0
-0.2
2.6
-0.1
2.6
-0.1
2.5
-0.1
2.2
-0.2
2.1
-0.1
2.0
-0.1
1.9
-0.1
1.8
-0.1
1.7
-0.1
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.9
0.7
1.4
0.8
-1.3
0.9
0.4
1.0
0.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
* percentage
otherwise
noted but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents
thechanges
numberunless
of jobs
in an area,
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Wigan (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
0.5
0.1
0.7
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.6
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
5.8
0.9
0.5
0.9
0.0
0.6
1.2
0.7
1.7
0.6
1.6
0.7
0.6
0.1
8.1
6.0
13.5
6.4
6.2
1.8
13.4
4.4
8.0
13.4
5.7
103.2
5.2
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.0
0.7
1.2
0.5
1.7
0.7
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.2
8.3
6.3
12.7
5.8
6.3
1.8
13.8
4.4
8.2
12.6
5.6
101.6
4.7
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.7
1.1
0.5
1.5
0.6
1.2
0.6
0.6
0.3
8.1
6.0
13.3
5.2
6.2
1.5
13.1
4.1
7.9
12.5
5.2
97.5
4.6
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.0
0.9
0.8
0.4
1.6
0.7
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.2
6.7
5.4
13.0
5.6
4.9
1.6
15.1
4.3
8.5
14.3
5.4
98.8
4.6
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.7
0.8
0.4
1.5
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.1
6.1
5.6
13.1
5.2
4.8
1.4
14.7
4.4
8.6
14.3
5.5
97.1
4.6
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.0
0.6
0.8
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.9
0.2
5.6
5.5
12.8
5.0
4.8
1.4
15.4
4.1
8.6
13.8
5.7
96.1
4.5
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.6
0.9
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.9
0.1
5.7
5.6
12.8
5.0
4.8
1.4
15.4
4.0
8.4
13.6
5.6
95.6
4.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.6
0.9
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.9
0.1
5.8
5.7
13.0
5.1
4.9
1.4
16.1
3.8
8.3
13.6
5.7
96.3
4.4
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.6
0.9
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.1
5.9
5.7
13.2
5.2
4.9
1.4
16.9
3.8
8.2
13.5
5.8
97.4
4.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.6
1.0
0.4
1.3
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.1
6.0
5.8
13.4
5.2
5.0
1.4
17.6
3.7
8.1
13.6
5.9
98.4
4.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.6
1.0
0.4
1.3
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.1
6.1
5.8
13.5
5.3
5.1
1.4
18.1
3.7
8.0
13.7
6.1
99.2
4.2
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.6
1.0
0.4
1.3
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.1
6.2
5.9
13.7
5.3
5.1
1.4
18.6
3.6
8.0
13.7
6.2
99.8
4.1
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.4
1.2
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.1
6.2
5.9
13.7
5.3
5.1
1.4
18.9
3.6
8.0
13.9
6.3
100.2
3.8
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.4
1.1
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.1
6.3
5.9
13.9
5.3
5.2
1.4
19.7
3.6
7.9
14.3
6.4
100.8
3.5
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.4
1.0
0.3
0.9
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.8
0.1
6.4
5.9
13.9
5.3
5.1
1.3
20.6
3.5
7.8
14.9
6.6
101.0
3.1
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.9
0.3
0.8
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.1
6.5
5.8
13.8
5.3
5.1
1.3
21.5
3.5
7.8
15.3
6.7
101.3
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
86.7
47.0
32.2
4.7
-15.9
-27.6
-11.0
1.6
26.0
-27.2
-16.1
-13.7
1.2
-5.4
-1.4
-3.6
-1.5
-3.8
-1.8
-4.0
-1.7
-4.0
-1.6
-3.8
-1.6
-3.7
-1.8
-4.0
-1.9
-4.3
-1.9
-4.6
11.4
-3.7
20.1
-8.7
-75.4
-11.3
-8.1
-8.0
14.6
1.1
12.9
-14.2
13.1
-6.5
10.3
-1.9
-10.0
-4.2
11.8
18.8
5.2
-5.3
-6.2
16.1
-0.4
2.4
-10.9
-4.5
14.5
-2.5
-100.0
21.8
-6.1
-20.0
3.5
23.2
-25.6
0.4
5.6
72.1
2.2
6.7
-5.8
-8.3
1.3
-3.7
3.3
-0.6
2.1
-5.7
-1.2
-1.5
-9.3
-13.6
-15.9
-24.1
0.0
-0.4
-1.7
-3.2
-14.1
-12.1
0.4
-14.4
-16.8
33.8
-1.5
-5.7
4.2
-9.9
-0.5
-15.4
-5.2
-7.5
-3.3
-0.8
-6.4
-4.1
-2.3
3.6
9.6
5.4
-100.0
24.4
-33.3
-29.1
6.5
4.7
-19.8
7.3
44.9
-41.4
-18.0
-9.7
-1.7
6.2
-20.9
6.7
15.5
6.1
8.0
14.6
2.0
1.4
0.1
-0.9
-4.3
-5.6
0.0
-17.8
6.0
0.9
-7.0
-15.2
-10.6
-7.1
2.4
-21.5
-9.2
2.9
0.5
-7.3
-2.2
-10.4
-2.8
1.6
1.4
-0.6
1.9
-1.7
-0.6
-2.9
0.6
3.3
0.0
-8.2
2.4
4.6
-2.7
1.6
0.8
-1.4
1.6
9.4
-7.4
-0.3
-2.4
-2.5
-1.1
-0.1
4.5
-6.3
-0.4
-3.4
5.2
-1.0
-0.3
-8.4
-2.5
-7.9
0.0
-3.0
4.8
-2.6
-0.8
-1.1
-3.0
0.6
-0.2
-3.7
1.4
0.6
0.2
-0.6
0.4
-1.4
0.6
-2.5
-1.8
-1.2
-2.6
-0.6
-0.7
-6.9
-0.3
-2.7
0.0
-1.9
3.3
0.7
-1.7
-0.6
-2.6
0.1
-0.2
-1.6
1.7
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.4
0.8
4.2
-3.8
-1.7
-0.4
1.6
0.8
-1.4
-7.6
0.1
-3.1
0.0
-2.2
4.0
1.1
-2.3
-0.9
-2.8
0.5
-0.5
-1.7
2.1
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.7
0.4
4.9
-2.5
-1.6
-0.1
2.2
1.1
-1.7
-7.8
-0.9
-3.3
0.0
-2.5
3.4
1.1
-2.6
-2.1
-3.1
-1.5
-0.6
-1.9
1.6
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.6
-0.5
4.2
-1.6
-0.9
0.2
2.5
1.0
-1.9
-8.0
-1.4
-3.5
0.0
-2.8
2.4
0.1
-2.8
-3.0
-3.3
-2.4
-0.8
-1.8
1.3
0.8
1.0
0.9
1.3
-0.7
3.0
-0.9
-0.6
0.5
2.3
0.8
-1.9
-8.0
-1.7
-3.5
0.0
-2.9
1.2
-0.6
-3.0
-3.1
-3.4
-2.5
-0.8
-1.6
1.3
0.7
0.9
0.7
0.8
-0.6
2.5
-0.6
-0.5
0.7
1.8
0.6
-1.9
-8.0
-1.7
-3.5
0.0
-2.9
0.3
-0.8
-3.0
-3.1
-3.4
-2.5
-0.8
-1.6
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.4
-0.5
1.8
-0.5
-0.3
0.8
1.2
0.4
-1.9
-8.0
-1.7
-3.5
0.0
-2.9
-0.1
-0.9
-3.0
-3.1
-3.4
-2.5
-0.8
-1.6
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
-0.5
1.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.9
0.7
0.2
-1.9
-8.0
-1.9
-3.5
0.0
-2.9
-0.3
-1.1
-2.9
-3.1
-3.3
-2.5
-0.8
-1.6
0.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.5
0.9
-0.3
-0.2
0.7
0.4
0.1
-2.0
-9.2
-1.8
-3.6
0.0
-3.0
-0.6
-1.1
-3.2
-3.2
-3.4
-2.6
-0.7
-1.6
0.3
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.8
-0.3
-0.1
0.6
0.4
0.1
Summary tables - Cheshire
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
686.1
425.7
1.2
687.5
424.8
1.0
688.2
422.3
-0.5
689.2
420.8
0.0
691.1
419.3
1.0
693.7
418.8
1.7
695.7
417.6
1.1
697.4
416.7
0.9
699.0
415.8
0.9
700.7
415.1
1.0
702.6
414.7
1.3
704.9
414.7
1.7
707.3
414.8
1.8
718.5
417.0
2.5
733.2
422.8
2.8
746.2
428.9
2.4
321.5
45.0
366.5
323.6
324.6
77.8
-1.0
6.9
1.6
319.2
45.3
364.5
322.0
324.0
77.9
-2.0
6.6
1.5
313.7
45.8
359.5
323.4
320.8
77.6
2.6
7.3
1.7
314.2
47.3
361.5
325.0
313.0
75.9
12.0
13.5
3.2
308.6
49.2
357.8
322.4
308.4
75.1
14.0
12.5
3.0
307.1
47.1
354.3
318.7
304.2
74.1
14.5
12.9
3.1
305.3
46.5
351.8
316.5
301.4
73.6
15.1
13.7
3.3
307.7
46.7
354.5
318.9
304.9
74.6
14.1
13.4
3.2
311.2
47.1
358.3
322.4
309.8
76.0
12.6
12.6
3.0
314.1
47.3
361.3
325.1
313.7
77.0
11.4
12.1
2.9
316.0
47.2
363.2
326.7
316.2
77.7
10.5
11.5
2.8
317.6
47.2
364.8
328.0
318.2
78.2
9.8
10.8
2.6
318.5
47.1
365.6
328.6
319.2
78.4
9.4
10.2
2.5
318.9
47.0
365.9
328.3
318.7
77.8
9.6
9.9
2.4
318.8
46.8
365.7
327.6
317.0
76.3
10.6
9.8
2.3
317.6
46.5
364.1
325.7
314.4
74.6
11.3
9.8
2.3
13638
114.4
14012
116.0
13989
115.8
13792
117.5
13888
116.9
14007
116.2
14200
116.4
14589
116.5
14994
116.6
15375
116.7
15738
116.8
16078
116.9
16416
117.1
17782
117.7
19584
118.3
21424
119.1
292
356190
293
359599
295
361871
297
360100
299
424191
302
424420
304
428132
306
431344
308
434402
311
437352
313
440363
315
443395
317
446554
327
459687
340
478051
353
497139
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
0.3
0.3
-1.4
0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
-0.6
-1.4
0.1
-0.4
0.5
0.3
-0.4
1.0
0.4
-0.1
0.7
0.3
-0.3
-0.6
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.3
-0.1
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.4
0.5
0.2
5.8
26.0
0.3
-0.7
0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-0.2
0.1
-1.1
-4.3
-0.1
-1.7
1.2
-1.4
0.4
-1.0
-0.3
4.7
11.6
0.2
0.1
3.2
0.5
0.5
-2.4
-1.6
9.3
84.3
1.5
-1.8
4.1
-1.0
-0.8
-1.5
-0.9
2.0
-7.4
-0.2
-0.5
-4.2
-1.0
-1.1
-1.4
-0.9
0.5
3.1
0.1
-0.6
-1.3
-0.7
-0.7
-0.9
-0.5
0.6
5.8
0.2
0.8
0.4
0.8
0.8
1.2
1.0
-1.1
-2.4
-0.1
1.1
0.8
1.1
1.1
1.6
1.3
-1.4
-5.4
-0.2
0.9
0.4
0.8
0.8
1.3
1.1
-1.2
-4.3
-0.1
0.6
-0.1
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.7
-0.9
-4.5
-0.1
0.5
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.5
-0.7
-6.7
-0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
-0.4
-4.9
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-1.6
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
3.1
-0.2
2.7
1.7
-0.2
-0.2
-1.4
1.6
0.7
-0.6
0.9
-0.7
1.4
0.2
2.7
0.1
2.8
0.1
2.5
0.1
2.4
0.1
2.2
0.1
2.1
0.1
2.0
0.1
1.9
0.1
1.8
0.1
0.6
0.9
0.5
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.7
-0.5
0.7
17.8
0.9
0.1
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
* percentage
changes
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents
the number
of unless
jobs inotherwise
an area,noted
but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Cheshire (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
4.8
0.8
4.9
0.7
4.9
0.4
4.3
0.5
5.5
0.4
4.6
0.3
4.6
0.3
4.6
0.3
4.5
0.3
4.4
0.3
4.3
0.3
4.3
0.2
4.2
0.2
3.9
0.2
3.6
0.2
3.2
0.1
4.5
1.8
0.6
4.2
1.3
10.5
3.1
1.4
3.9
2.0
2.4
8.3
1.3
0.7
14.5
18.6
37.2
25.6
16.0
18.3
51.4
10.4
25.6
35.9
16.4
321.5
4.5
1.7
0.6
4.3
1.1
6.5
2.8
1.1
3.8
2.5
2.1
7.0
1.4
0.7
14.3
18.9
37.6
24.2
14.8
18.6
57.6
10.5
25.6
36.3
15.1
319.2
4.5
1.2
0.4
3.4
1.0
5.5
2.4
1.3
3.7
2.5
2.1
6.5
1.2
0.8
13.3
19.5
36.6
22.8
14.7
18.8
57.7
10.0
24.8
37.5
16.1
313.7
4.1
1.1
0.5
3.3
0.9
5.9
1.9
1.0
3.6
2.4
2.0
7.6
2.1
2.2
11.4
18.4
35.4
22.3
14.2
20.5
56.6
12.2
25.2
38.5
15.8
314.2
4.2
1.1
0.5
3.2
0.7
6.1
2.0
1.0
3.4
2.0
1.8
7.1
2.1
2.5
10.4
18.9
35.6
20.7
14.1
18.7
54.6
12.4
25.6
38.1
16.0
308.6
4.1
1.1
0.5
3.3
0.7
6.1
2.0
1.0
3.3
2.1
1.8
7.2
2.2
2.6
9.6
18.9
34.7
20.1
14.2
18.9
57.0
11.6
25.6
36.6
16.8
307.1
4.1
1.0
0.5
3.1
0.7
6.0
2.1
1.0
3.3
2.0
1.8
7.3
2.2
2.5
9.8
19.0
34.8
20.0
14.2
18.7
57.4
11.4
25.2
35.9
16.3
305.3
4.1
0.9
0.5
3.0
0.7
5.9
2.2
1.0
3.2
2.0
1.8
7.3
2.2
2.5
10.0
19.2
35.2
20.2
14.4
19.0
59.6
10.9
24.8
35.6
16.5
307.7
4.1
0.8
0.5
3.0
0.7
5.8
2.2
1.0
3.2
2.0
1.7
7.3
2.2
2.4
10.2
19.5
35.8
20.5
14.7
19.1
62.4
10.7
24.4
35.3
16.8
311.2
4.0
0.8
0.5
2.9
0.7
5.7
2.3
1.0
3.1
2.0
1.7
7.2
2.2
2.4
10.4
19.7
36.2
20.7
14.9
19.0
64.8
10.5
24.2
35.2
17.2
314.1
3.9
0.7
0.5
2.8
0.7
5.6
2.3
1.0
3.0
1.9
1.7
7.1
2.2
2.3
10.5
19.8
36.5
20.9
15.1
18.9
66.5
10.4
24.1
35.2
17.6
316.0
3.9
0.7
0.5
2.8
0.6
5.5
2.3
1.0
2.9
1.8
1.6
6.9
2.2
2.3
10.7
20.0
36.9
21.0
15.2
18.9
67.8
10.4
24.0
35.3
17.9
317.6
3.8
0.6
0.5
2.7
0.6
5.4
2.3
1.0
2.9
1.8
1.6
6.8
2.2
2.3
10.8
20.1
37.1
21.1
15.3
18.8
68.8
10.4
24.0
35.4
18.0
318.5
3.5
0.4
0.4
2.4
0.6
4.9
2.2
1.0
2.6
1.6
1.4
6.2
2.1
2.1
10.9
20.1
37.5
21.3
15.3
18.7
70.4
10.4
24.2
36.1
18.4
318.9
3.2
0.3
0.4
2.1
0.5
4.4
2.1
0.9
2.3
1.3
1.3
5.5
2.1
2.0
11.1
20.0
37.8
21.3
15.2
18.5
72.5
10.4
24.4
36.7
18.7
318.8
3.0
0.2
0.4
1.8
0.5
4.0
2.2
0.9
2.0
1.1
1.1
4.8
1.9
1.8
11.4
19.8
38.1
21.3
15.0
16.9
74.4
10.5
23.3
38.9
19.1
317.6
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
5.4
-0.9
1.6
-10.3
0.8
-39.8
-11.7
21.8
26.0
-27.2
-16.1
-13.7
1.2
-5.4
-1.4
-3.6
-1.5
-3.8
-1.8
-4.0
-1.7
-4.0
-1.6
-3.8
-1.6
-3.7
-1.8
-4.0
-1.9
-4.3
-1.9
-4.6
-12.6
-30.0
-35.0
-24.3
-1.3
-8.8
4.1
8.6
-1.5
13.4
7.3
-7.3
-28.3
7.2
14.1
2.1
-5.3
4.1
1.2
10.3
9.3
-9.0
2.7
8.4
32.2
3.0
0.5
-5.6
8.2
2.5
-13.2
-38.0
-9.5
-24.3
-2.2
24.8
-10.9
-15.1
9.2
-1.2
-1.2
1.6
1.1
-5.8
-7.4
1.7
12.1
0.4
-0.2
1.1
-8.0
-0.7
-0.1
-29.5
-31.6
-22.2
-6.1
-16.2
-11.8
19.3
-4.4
-1.3
-0.5
-7.9
-11.8
7.1
-6.7
3.2
-2.5
-5.7
-0.2
0.9
0.2
-4.4
-3.2
3.4
6.7
-1.7
-8.6
-10.2
17.3
-0.7
-15.9
8.6
-21.7
-26.1
-0.6
-3.2
-5.3
18.0
64.9
188.4
-14.2
-5.8
-3.2
-2.1
-3.6
9.6
-2.0
21.8
1.9
2.8
-2.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
-4.3
-4.5
-19.9
2.5
5.0
0.9
-7.5
-15.2
-9.4
-6.9
3.0
11.1
-9.4
2.9
0.4
-7.3
-0.5
-9.0
-3.4
1.7
1.5
-1.2
1.6
-1.8
-0.4
-2.9
0.6
4.4
7.8
0.5
1.4
4.6
-2.1
1.6
2.5
1.7
2.2
5.5
-7.2
-0.3
-2.4
-2.5
0.2
1.3
4.3
-6.2
-0.2
-3.9
5.0
-0.5
-0.1
-8.2
-2.5
-6.9
-3.5
-2.3
3.8
-2.6
-0.5
-1.1
-2.0
0.8
0.4
-3.7
2.1
0.6
0.1
-0.8
0.4
-1.1
0.8
-2.4
-1.6
-1.8
-2.9
-0.6
-0.5
-6.7
-0.3
-1.6
-1.9
-1.1
2.4
0.7
-1.4
-0.6
-1.6
0.3
0.3
-1.7
1.8
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.4
1.1
3.9
-3.7
-1.6
-1.0
1.3
0.8
-1.2
-7.4
0.1
-2.1
-2.2
-1.5
3.0
1.1
-2.0
-0.9
-1.8
0.7
0.1
-1.7
2.2
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.8
0.7
4.6
-2.4
-1.5
-0.7
1.8
1.1
-1.5
-7.6
-0.9
-2.3
-2.2
-1.7
2.5
1.1
-2.3
-2.1
-2.1
-1.3
-0.1
-1.9
1.7
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.6
-0.3
3.9
-1.5
-0.8
-0.3
2.2
0.9
-1.7
-7.8
-1.4
-2.5
-2.2
-2.0
1.5
0.1
-2.5
-3.0
-2.3
-2.2
-0.3
-1.9
1.4
0.8
0.9
0.8
1.2
-0.5
2.6
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
2.1
0.6
-1.7
-7.8
-1.7
-2.5
-2.2
-2.1
0.3
-0.6
-2.6
-3.1
-2.4
-2.3
-0.3
-1.6
1.3
0.7
0.9
0.7
0.8
-0.4
2.1
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
1.5
0.5
-1.7
-7.8
-1.7
-2.5
-2.2
-2.1
-0.5
-0.8
-2.6
-3.1
-2.4
-2.3
-0.3
-1.6
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.4
-0.2
1.3
-0.3
-0.1
0.3
1.0
0.3
-1.7
-7.8
-1.7
-2.5
-2.2
-2.1
-1.0
-0.9
-2.6
-3.1
-2.4
-2.3
-0.3
-1.6
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.6
0.1
-1.7
-7.8
-1.9
-2.5
-2.2
-2.1
-1.1
-1.1
-2.6
-3.1
-2.3
-2.3
-0.3
-1.6
0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.0
-1.6
-8.9
-1.8
-3.4
-2.3
-2.0
0.6
-1.1
-2.1
-3.2
-2.4
-2.4
-1.9
-1.6
0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-1.4
0.5
0.1
-0.7
1.0
0.4
-0.1
Summary tables – Greater Manchester
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
2554.2
1644.3
-
2565.5
1651.7
-
2580.1
1656.7
-
2600.6
1668.5
-
2629.4
1685.8
-
2651.5
1696.6
-
2667.8
1701.4
-
2682.6
1703.6
-
2696.4
1704.5
-
2709.2
1704.3
-
2723.0
1704.9
-
2736.2
1704.8
-
2749.5
1705.1
-
2800.3
1706.2
-
2848.8
1706.9
-
2875.7
1698.3
-
1171.6
137.5
1309.1
1156.9
1133.4
68.9
23.6
43.6
2.7
1177.2
140.5
1317.7
1163.6
1134.3
68.7
29.4
42.5
2.6
1158.1
143.3
1301.4
1163.9
1125.1
67.9
38.8
46.6
2.8
1150.3
143.3
1293.5
1159.8
1104.9
66.2
55.0
77.8
4.7
1131.6
147.9
1279.6
1147.6
1103.8
65.5
43.8
76.7
4.6
1131.4
141.9
1273.3
1140.7
1098.7
64.8
42.0
82.6
4.9
1129.5
140.9
1270.4
1137.9
1096.5
64.4
41.4
88.2
5.2
1142.2
142.5
1284.8
1150.5
1108.2
65.1
42.3
86.7
5.1
1159.1
144.6
1303.7
1167.1
1123.3
65.9
43.8
82.6
4.8
1174.6
146.0
1320.6
1181.8
1136.7
66.7
45.1
79.7
4.7
1187.4
146.8
1334.2
1193.5
1147.5
67.3
46.0
76.7
4.5
1198.5
147.4
1345.9
1203.5
1156.8
67.9
46.7
72.1
4.2
1206.5
148.0
1354.5
1210.7
1163.7
68.3
46.9
69.1
4.1
1222.1
150.4
1372.5
1225.0
1179.1
69.1
45.9
69.5
4.1
1233.2
152.3
1385.5
1234.8
1191.1
69.8
43.6
71.4
4.2
1239.5
153.8
1393.2
1240.1
1199.1
70.6
41.0
74.1
4.4
44172.8
-
45096.0
-
45008.8
-
43674.8
-
44160.7
-
44925.8
-
45628.3
-
47003.0
-
48382.2
-
49762.9
-
51084.5
-
52338.0
-
53591.8
-
58473.9
-
64604.1
-
70869
-
1091.5
-
1099.1
-
1108.5
-
1121.6
-
1137.8
-
1150.3
-
1160.5
-
1170.4
-
1180.2
-
1189.8
-
1199.8
-
1209.5
-
1219.3
-
1258.6
-
1307.2
-
1351
-
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
0.4
0.8
-
0.4
0.4
-
0.6
0.3
-
0.8
0.7
-
1.1
1.0
-
0.8
0.6
-
0.6
0.3
-
0.6
0.1
-
0.5
0.0
-
0.5
0.0
-
0.5
0.0
-
0.5
0.0
-
0.5
0.0
-
0.5
0.0
-
0.4
0.0
-
0.2
-0.1
-
1.4
0.4
1.3
1.3
0.8
0.0
5.9
13.8
0.3
0.5
2.2
0.7
0.6
0.1
-0.3
5.8
-2.5
-0.1
-1.6
2.0
-1.2
0.0
-0.8
-0.8
9.4
9.7
0.2
-0.7
0.0
-0.6
-0.3
-1.8
-1.7
16.2
66.8
1.8
-1.6
3.3
-1.1
-1.1
-0.1
-0.7
-11.1
-1.4
-0.1
0.0
-4.1
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-0.7
-1.9
7.7
0.3
-0.2
-0.7
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.6
6.7
0.3
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.6
0.9
-1.6
-0.1
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.4
0.9
1.5
-4.8
-0.2
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.3
1.2
0.8
1.3
-3.5
-0.2
1.1
0.5
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.6
0.9
-3.7
-0.2
0.9
0.4
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
-6.0
-0.3
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.3
-4.1
-0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
-0.1
-0.7
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.6
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.5
0.8
0.0
2.3
-
2.1
-
-0.2
-
-3.0
-
1.1
-
1.7
-
1.6
-
3.0
-
2.9
-
2.9
-
2.7
-
2.5
-
2.4
-
2.2
-
2.0
-
1.9
-
0.7
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.9
0.0
1.2
0.0
1.4
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.7
0.0
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – Greater Manchester (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
2.1
0.2
2.2
0.3
2.4
0.2
2.1
0.3
2.6
0.1
2.2
0.1
2.2
0.1
2.2
0.1
2.2
0.1
2.1
0.1
2.1
0.1
2.1
0.1
2.0
0.1
1.9
0.1
1.7
0.1
1.6
0.0
23.4
12.0
2.6
15.0
0.3
10.7
11.2
3.7
15.5
11.1
12.9
5.2
8.8
1.6
61.5
79.3
121.8
70.9
77.7
51.1
209.3
63.8
103.6
140.3
55.8
1171.6
20.8
10.7
3.0
14.5
0.2
9.9
11.2
3.2
14.8
12.7
13.1
5.9
8.9
2.3
63.0
83.7
121.1
70.2
74.2
48.2
217.0
64.6
103.1
143.2
55.3
1177.2
20.4
8.3
2.0
12.9
0.2
8.7
11.0
3.1
13.8
11.2
13.0
5.3
7.5
1.9
64.1
76.3
120.5
65.0
77.6
49.7
217.0
60.8
102.1
146.9
56.0
1158.1
19.3
8.0
2.9
11.0
0.3
9.9
9.1
2.5
14.5
9.5
11.2
7.0
10.1
7.7
55.3
71.3
121.1
68.3
68.7
47.1
217.5
65.0
102.2
151.6
56.8
1150.3
19.3
8.0
2.8
10.4
0.3
8.4
9.5
2.5
13.4
8.0
10.2
6.5
10.3
7.7
49.9
73.5
121.1
64.1
68.7
43.3
209.6
66.7
104.8
151.7
58.4
1131.6
19.1
7.9
2.8
10.8
0.3
7.9
9.6
2.6
13.0
8.1
10.4
6.4
10.5
8.2
46.2
73.4
118.9
62.9
69.9
44.9
218.7
62.9
105.1
146.9
61.7
1131.4
19.0
7.2
2.7
9.9
0.3
7.6
10.0
2.6
12.9
8.1
10.2
6.4
10.5
7.9
47.2
73.9
119.6
62.8
70.5
44.7
222.4
61.5
103.6
145.1
60.3
1129.5
18.8
6.8
2.7
9.7
0.3
7.5
10.2
2.6
12.7
8.0
10.1
6.4
10.5
7.7
48.2
74.9
121.7
63.9
71.8
45.5
232.7
59.3
102.2
144.5
61.3
1142.2
18.5
6.3
2.7
9.4
0.3
7.3
10.5
2.6
12.4
7.9
9.9
6.4
10.4
7.6
49.4
76.1
123.9
65.0
73.3
46.0
244.8
58.0
100.9
144.3
62.8
1159.1
18.1
5.8
2.7
9.2
0.3
7.2
10.7
2.7
12.0
7.8
9.6
6.3
10.3
7.5
50.4
76.9
125.6
65.9
74.8
46.2
256.1
57.1
100.2
144.5
64.4
1174.6
17.7
5.4
2.7
8.9
0.3
7.0
10.9
2.7
11.7
7.6
9.4
6.2
10.3
7.4
51.3
77.6
127.0
66.7
76.1
46.2
264.7
56.7
99.9
145.1
66.1
1187.4
17.3
5.0
2.6
8.6
0.3
6.8
10.9
2.7
11.3
7.3
9.2
6.0
10.2
7.2
52.1
78.2
128.4
67.4
77.0
46.3
272.1
56.5
99.7
146.0
67.3
1198.5
17.0
4.6
2.6
8.3
0.3
6.6
10.8
2.7
10.9
7.1
9.0
5.9
10.1
7.1
52.7
78.6
129.4
67.9
77.6
46.4
277.6
56.3
99.7
147.0
68.2
1206.5
15.5
3.3
2.4
7.3
0.3
5.9
10.3
2.6
9.6
6.3
8.1
5.3
9.8
6.7
54.1
79.1
131.1
68.8
78.7
46.7
290.3
56.0
100.1
151.6
70.3
1222.1
13.9
2.2
2.1
6.2
0.2
5.2
9.6
2.5
8.2
5.4
7.2
4.6
9.4
6.2
55.5
78.9
131.6
68.8
79.2
46.8
304.8
55.3
99.9
155.6
71.9
1233.2
12.3
1.4
1.9
5.3
0.2
4.5
9.0
2.4
6.9
4.5
6.4
4.1
9.2
5.7
56.8
78.6
131.5
68.4
79.3
47.3
316.8
54.2
99.9
158.2
73.1
1239.5
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
36.0
22.4
4.0
40.1
6.8
-34.3
-12.5
21.2
26.0
-55.5
-16.0
-13.5
1.3
-5.2
-1.3
-3.5
-1.4
-3.6
-1.7
-3.9
-1.6
-3.8
-1.5
-3.6
-1.5
-3.5
-1.7
-3.8
-1.8
-4.2
-1.9
-4.5
0.7
0.3
13.7
5.4
-16.4
-0.9
-3.0
1.5
2.8
-1.9
-6.8
-14.9
13.2
16.6
9.6
-6.4
-2.0
-3.2
2.8
8.3
6.8
-3.8
1.2
2.9
-2.8
1.4
-11.1
-11.2
13.2
-2.9
-36.9
-7.7
-0.1
-13.8
-4.0
14.2
2.0
11.7
1.4
41.9
2.4
5.5
-0.6
-1.0
-4.5
-5.7
3.7
1.3
-0.5
2.0
-0.9
0.5
-1.9
-22.3
-33.9
-11.2
-1.2
-11.7
-1.3
-3.8
-7.1
-12.2
-0.6
-9.5
-15.4
-15.7
1.9
-8.8
-0.5
-7.4
4.6
3.2
0.0
-5.9
-0.9
2.6
1.2
-1.6
-5.4
-3.3
48.4
-15.0
58.5
12.9
-17.7
-19.2
5.4
-15.4
-13.9
31.2
33.6
303.6
-13.7
-6.5
0.5
5.0
-11.5
-5.2
0.2
7.0
0.1
3.2
1.6
-0.7
-0.2
0.2
-4.4
-5.3
-19.0
-14.7
4.8
1.1
-8.0
-15.2
-9.4
-7.2
2.5
0.0
-9.9
3.0
0.0
-6.1
0.1
-8.2
-3.6
2.7
2.5
0.0
2.7
-1.6
-0.8
-2.1
0.4
3.6
8.9
-6.6
1.2
4.9
-2.6
1.6
2.8
-1.2
1.7
6.7
-7.4
-0.2
-1.8
-1.7
1.7
3.7
4.3
-5.8
0.3
-3.1
5.6
0.0
-0.6
-7.8
-2.6
-7.6
-2.5
-2.8
3.6
-2.3
-1.0
-1.1
-2.1
0.5
-0.1
-3.6
2.2
0.7
0.6
-0.2
0.9
-0.4
1.7
-2.2
-1.4
-1.2
-2.3
-0.2
-1.0
-6.3
-0.5
-2.3
-0.9
-1.7
2.2
1.0
-1.8
-0.6
-1.7
0.0
-0.1
-1.6
2.1
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.6
4.6
-3.6
-1.4
-0.4
1.8
1.1
-1.7
-7.2
0.0
-2.8
-1.2
-2.1
2.8
1.4
-2.5
-0.9
-1.9
0.4
-0.4
-1.6
2.5
1.5
1.8
1.8
2.2
1.3
5.2
-2.3
-1.3
-0.2
2.3
1.5
-2.0
-7.5
-1.1
-3.0
-1.2
-2.4
2.3
1.3
-2.8
-2.1
-2.2
-1.6
-0.6
-1.8
2.0
1.1
1.4
1.3
2.0
0.3
4.6
-1.5
-0.7
0.1
2.7
1.3
-2.2
-7.7
-1.6
-3.2
-1.2
-2.6
1.3
0.3
-3.0
-2.9
-2.4
-2.4
-0.8
-1.8
1.7
0.9
1.2
1.2
1.7
0.1
3.4
-0.7
-0.3
0.5
2.5
1.1
-2.2
-7.7
-1.8
-3.2
-1.3
-2.7
0.1
-0.3
-3.1
-3.1
-2.4
-2.6
-0.8
-1.6
1.7
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.2
0.2
2.8
-0.4
-0.2
0.6
1.9
0.9
-2.2
-7.7
-1.8
-3.2
-1.3
-2.7
-0.7
-0.5
-3.1
-3.1
-2.4
-2.6
-0.8
-1.5
1.1
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.3
2.0
-0.3
0.0
0.7
1.3
0.7
-2.2
-7.7
-1.9
-3.2
-1.3
-2.7
-1.1
-0.6
-3.1
-3.1
-2.4
-2.6
-0.8
-1.5
0.7
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
1.3
-0.2
0.1
0.8
0.9
0.4
-2.2
-7.7
-2.0
-3.2
-1.3
-2.7
-1.3
-0.9
-3.1
-3.1
-2.4
-2.6
-0.8
-1.5
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.0
-0.2
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.2
-2.3
-8.7
-2.0
-3.2
-1.4
-2.9
-1.4
-0.9
-3.4
-3.2
-2.5
-2.7
-0.6
-1.6
0.5
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.1
Summary tables – North West
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
6852.0
4234.7
0.3
6863.7
4239.2
-2.7
6874.1
4236.3
-8.2
6897.9
4243.5
4.5
6935.7
4266.2
17.2
6965.0
4288.3
10.2
6985.7
4297.7
1.2
7004.1
4303.9
-1.7
7021.5
4311.5
-3.3
7039.2
4318.4
-3.5
7059.0
4326.5
-1.8
7080.5
4334.7
-0.7
7102.8
4343.7
-0.1
7197.8
4360.1
3.0
7307.9
4418.8
4.0
7396.5
4377.6
2.1
3041.6
383.9
3436.1
3038.1
3033.9
71.6
4.2
115.6
2.7
3051.6
388.4
3449.1
3065.8
3046.3
71.9
19.5
110.0
2.6
2990.5
398.9
3397.5
3011.4
3025.4
71.4
-14.0
119.6
2.8
2967.8
405.6
3381.2
2993.5
2970.8
70.0
22.8
192.2
4.5
2915.3
419.2
3342.0
2968.2
2957.5
69.3
10.7
184.1
4.3
2895.0
401.0
3301.0
2935.1
2923.8
68.2
11.3
192.6
4.5
2877.6
396.5
3279.0
2916.7
2904.8
67.6
11.8
212.2
4.9
2897.7
399.5
3302.0
2938.1
2924.9
68.0
13.2
207.1
4.8
2928.1
403.5
3336.3
2969.5
2954.1
68.5
15.4
195.7
4.5
2955.3
406.0
3366.1
2996.6
2979.1
69.0
17.5
187.3
4.3
2976.7
406.8
3388.2
3016.4
2997.3
69.3
19.1
179.1
4.1
2994.9
407.4
3406.9
3033.2
3012.8
69.5
20.4
167.3
3.9
3006.6
407.9
3419.0
3043.9
3022.5
69.6
21.4
159.4
3.7
3021.9
410.1
3436.3
3059.4
3035.4
69.6
24.0
156.7
3.6
3030.2
411.6
3445.9
3068.6
3041.4
68.8
27.2
157.3
3.6
3037.3
412.9
3453.9
3076.7
3046.1
69.6
30.6
159.7
3.6
111804
-
114281
-
114124
-
109824
-
111003
-
112327
-
113703
-
116672
-
119772
-
122786
-
125684
-
128408
-
131122
-
141957
-
155950
-
170645
-
2927
3115798
2942
3137466
2958
3165016
2981
3145840
3010
3218691
3034
3224320
3056
3250878
3076
3273490
3096
3295505
3117
3317069
3137
3338472
3158
3360324
3179
3382418
3265
3472975
3380
3595212
3497
3720603
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
0.2
0.4
-10.2
0.2
0.1
-3.0
0.2
-0.1
-5.5
0.3
0.2
12.7
0.5
0.5
12.7
0.4
0.5
-7.0
0.3
0.2
-9.0
0.3
0.1
-2.8
0.2
0.2
-1.6
0.3
0.2
-0.2
0.3
0.2
1.6
0.3
0.2
1.2
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.7
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.4
2.5
0.8
2.2
1.7
0.1
-0.2
48.1
14.1
0.3
0.3
1.2
0.4
0.9
0.4
0.2
15.4
-4.8
-0.1
-2.0
2.7
-1.5
-1.8
-0.7
-0.4
-33.6
8.8
0.2
-0.8
1.7
-0.5
-0.6
-1.8
-1.4
36.8
60.7
1.7
-1.8
3.4
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
-0.7
-12.1
-4.2
-0.2
-0.7
-4.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
0.6
4.6
0.2
-0.6
-1.1
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
0.6
10.2
0.4
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.4
1.4
-2.4
-0.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
0.6
2.2
-5.5
-0.3
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.5
2.1
-4.2
-0.2
0.7
0.2
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.3
1.5
-4.4
-0.2
0.6
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.2
1.3
-6.6
-0.3
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.1
1.0
-4.7
-0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.7
-1.3
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.4
0.0
2.5
-
2.2
-
-0.1
-
-3.8
-
1.1
-
1.2
-
1.2
-
2.6
-
2.7
-
2.5
-
2.4
-
2.2
-
2.1
-
2.0
-
1.9
-
1.8
-
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.8
-0.6
1.0
2.3
0.8
0.2
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents
the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
* percentage changes unless otherwise noted
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – North West (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
18.7
2.4
18.9
2.9
19.6
2.0
17.2
1.9
21.6
1.7
18.2
1.5
18.4
1.5
18.1
1.4
17.8
1.4
17.5
1.3
17.2
1.3
17.0
1.2
16.7
1.2
15.5
1.0
14.1
0.8
12.8
0.7
55.3
23.6
7.6
38.1
9.6
39.2
27.9
12.3
40.7
27.4
26.5
45.4
22.4
7.9
149.6
187.5
327.1
212.8
180.4
111.1
474.7
178.5
274.5
394.6
146.2
3041.6
54.0
22.5
8.8
37.6
10.4
33.2
27.3
10.7
40.2
30.2
25.7
46.9
22.6
11.6
149.9
195.5
325.0
206.7
171.8
107.0
492.4
180.1
278.9
398.2
142.6
3051.6
51.6
18.3
5.5
34.3
9.4
29.0
26.5
10.2
38.6
25.0
25.5
45.1
19.2
8.0
155.3
182.8
322.1
196.4
175.7
107.0
484.9
169.8
263.3
413.7
151.8
2990.5
47.3
16.8
7.8
29.8
9.7
32.2
23.1
8.3
39.7
22.1
24.0
52.4
25.8
14.4
140.8
170.7
321.6
200.8
160.7
106.9
472.4
179.4
262.3
427.6
152.0
2967.8
47.2
16.8
7.4
28.2
7.8
29.1
24.2
8.4
36.7
18.8
21.7
48.9
26.5
15.1
127.2
175.8
322.4
186.9
160.2
97.7
455.2
183.1
267.0
424.4
155.1
2915.3
46.9
16.4
7.5
29.3
8.5
27.9
24.5
8.8
35.9
19.1
22.2
48.8
27.0
16.1
117.8
175.6
314.8
182.6
161.3
100.0
474.4
171.8
266.3
408.8
163.0
2895.0
46.7
15.1
7.3
27.1
8.2
27.1
25.3
8.6
35.6
18.9
21.8
49.4
27.0
15.6
120.0
176.8
315.5
181.4
162.3
99.0
479.4
167.7
261.7
401.9
158.6
2877.6
46.3
14.1
7.3
26.5
8.1
26.7
25.8
8.7
35.1
18.9
21.4
49.7
27.0
15.4
122.2
179.2
319.9
183.9
164.8
100.1
499.4
161.4
257.2
398.5
160.8
2897.7
45.5
13.1
7.4
25.7
8.0
26.2
26.5
8.8
34.3
18.7
21.0
50.2
26.9
15.2
124.9
182.0
324.9
186.6
167.9
100.8
523.6
157.5
253.1
396.2
163.9
2928.1
44.7
12.1
7.3
25.0
7.8
25.6
27.1
8.9
33.5
18.3
20.5
49.7
26.8
14.9
127.1
184.0
328.6
188.6
170.9
100.6
545.4
155.0
250.8
395.4
167.8
2955.3
43.7
11.1
7.2
24.2
7.7
24.9
27.4
8.9
32.6
17.8
20.0
48.8
26.6
14.7
129.0
185.7
331.6
190.3
173.3
100.3
561.7
153.8
249.4
395.9
171.4
2976.7
42.8
10.3
7.1
23.5
7.5
24.3
27.4
8.9
31.7
17.3
19.5
47.9
26.5
14.5
130.9
187.2
334.5
191.8
175.1
100.0
575.6
153.0
248.5
396.9
174.2
2994.9
41.9
9.5
7.0
22.8
7.4
23.7
27.2
8.8
30.8
16.8
19.0
47.0
26.3
14.3
132.1
188.2
336.5
192.8
176.1
99.9
585.5
152.4
247.9
398.6
176.1
3006.6
38.5
6.9
6.6
20.1
6.9
21.4
25.8
8.6
27.4
14.9
17.1
43.4
25.7
13.6
135.2
189.2
339.4
194.2
177.4
99.4
607.5
151.7
247.3
407.1
180.0
3021.9
34.6
4.6
6.1
17.2
6.3
18.8
24.1
8.2
23.8
12.9
15.1
39.2
24.8
12.8
138.5
188.7
340.1
194.3
177.4
98.5
633.8
150.7
246.4
415.1
183.3
3030.2
31.0
2.9
5.6
14.5
5.7
16.4
22.5
7.9
20.5
11.0
13.3
35.3
24.1
12.0
141.8
188.1
340.8
194.1
177.1
97.6
657.3
149.7
245.3
423.0
186.5
3037.3
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
8.2
3.5
1.2
22.2
3.3
-31.5
-12.2
-3.1
26.0
-11.1
-16.1
-10.0
1.2
-5.5
-1.4
-3.2
-1.5
-3.3
-1.8
-3.6
-1.7
-3.5
-1.6
-3.3
-1.6
-3.2
-1.8
-3.5
-1.9
-3.9
-1.9
-4.1
-3.2
-11.1
-6.7
-3.3
-6.9
-5.3
-4.4
3.7
2.4
1.8
-8.4
2.1
-1.0
8.7
5.4
-0.8
-0.1
2.7
5.1
7.7
10.0
-1.4
2.2
1.6
2.2
2.5
-2.4
-4.7
15.0
-1.3
8.1
-15.3
-2.4
-12.5
-1.3
10.3
-3.1
3.3
0.9
48.0
0.2
4.3
-0.6
-2.9
-4.8
-3.7
3.7
0.9
1.6
0.9
-2.4
0.3
-4.5
-18.4
-36.8
-8.9
-9.9
-12.6
-2.7
-4.9
-4.0
-17.3
-0.7
-3.8
-15.1
-31.3
3.6
-6.5
-0.9
-5.0
2.3
0.0
-1.5
-5.7
-5.6
3.9
6.4
-2.0
-8.2
-8.3
39.9
-13.1
3.8
11.1
-12.8
-18.9
3.1
-11.6
-6.1
16.2
34.7
80.3
-9.3
-6.6
-0.2
2.2
-8.6
-0.1
-2.6
5.7
-0.4
3.4
0.2
-0.8
-0.2
-0.2
-4.0
-5.2
-19.5
-9.7
4.6
1.1
-7.7
-15.1
-9.6
-6.6
2.7
4.8
-9.7
3.0
0.2
-6.9
-0.3
-8.6
-3.6
2.1
1.8
-0.7
2.0
-1.8
-0.6
-2.3
0.8
3.7
8.2
-4.3
1.1
4.9
-2.3
1.8
2.6
-0.2
1.8
6.6
-7.3
-0.2
-2.3
-2.3
0.7
2.4
4.2
-6.2
-0.3
-3.7
5.1
-0.7
-0.5
-8.0
-2.2
-7.5
-3.1
-2.7
3.4
-2.3
-0.7
-0.9
-2.2
1.2
0.0
-3.3
1.8
0.7
0.2
-0.6
0.6
-1.0
1.0
-2.4
-1.8
-1.7
-2.7
-0.6
-0.9
-6.5
-0.1
-2.3
-1.5
-1.6
2.1
0.9
-1.5
-0.4
-1.8
0.7
0.0
-1.3
1.9
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.1
4.2
-3.7
-1.7
-0.8
1.4
0.7
-1.6
-7.3
0.4
-2.7
-1.8
-1.9
2.7
1.4
-2.2
-0.8
-2.0
1.0
-0.3
-1.3
2.2
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.9
0.7
4.8
-2.4
-1.6
-0.6
2.0
1.0
-1.9
-7.5
-0.7
-2.9
-1.8
-2.2
2.2
1.3
-2.5
-1.9
-2.3
-0.9
-0.4
-1.5
1.8
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.8
-0.2
4.2
-1.6
-0.9
-0.2
2.4
0.9
-2.1
-7.7
-1.2
-3.1
-1.8
-2.5
1.2
0.3
-2.7
-2.8
-2.4
-1.8
-0.6
-1.5
1.5
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.4
-0.4
3.0
-0.8
-0.5
0.1
2.2
0.7
-2.1
-7.7
-1.4
-3.1
-1.8
-2.6
0.0
-0.3
-2.8
-2.9
-2.5
-1.9
-0.6
-1.3
1.5
0.8
0.9
0.8
1.0
-0.2
2.5
-0.5
-0.4
0.3
1.6
0.6
-2.1
-7.7
-1.4
-3.1
-1.8
-2.6
-0.8
-0.6
-2.8
-2.9
-2.5
-2.0
-0.6
-1.2
0.9
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
-0.1
1.7
-0.4
-0.2
0.4
1.1
0.4
-2.1
-7.7
-1.5
-3.1
-1.8
-2.6
-1.2
-0.6
-2.8
-2.9
-2.5
-2.0
-0.6
-1.2
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.1
1.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.5
0.7
0.2
-2.1
-7.7
-1.6
-3.1
-1.8
-2.6
-1.4
-0.9
-2.8
-2.9
-2.5
-2.0
-0.6
-1.3
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.9
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.1
-2.2
-8.7
-1.7
-3.2
-1.9
-2.6
-1.4
-0.9
-2.9
-3.1
-2.5
-2.0
-0.6
-1.3
0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.7
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.3
0.0
Summary tables - UK
Table 1: Key indicators
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate
Net commuting
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
60584.2
37707.4
189.8
60985.7
37915.7
212.1
61398.2
38090.1
192.3
61791.9
38235.9
177.2
62262.0
38482.6
227.6
62708.6
38810.0
220.8
63108.5
39068.6
170.8
63482.4
39294.1
140.8
63815.7
39517.5
95.8
64148.8
39721.5
90.0
64488.0
39928.5
90.0
64832.3
40129.5
90.0
65179.7
40332.6
90.0
66564.0
40843.6
90.0
68171.2
41744.7
90.0
69629.0
41713.4
90.0
27314.1
4084.8
31638.1
27449.0
27650.5
73.3
944.9
2.5
27478.8
4162.5
31863.9
27742.4
27981.7
73.8
863.7
2.3
27585.6
4166.5
31966.0
27799.4
28043.0
73.6
905.2
2.4
26990.4
4205.0
31412.3
27276.4
27517.9
72.0
1532.2
4.0
26637.4
4340.3
31193.3
27089.0
27334.5
71.0
1497.1
3.9
26586.8
4327.4
31111.2
27042.5
27280.0
70.3
1560.8
4.0
26578.2
4313.2
31104.6
27031.2
27265.5
69.8
1697.5
4.3
26835.7
4351.3
31400.2
27301.1
27534.5
70.0
1635.2
4.2
27195.4
4402.5
31811.1
27670.9
27903.6
70.6
1533.2
3.9
27523.9
4436.4
32173.4
27993.9
28226.1
71.0
1464.0
3.7
27784.3
4448.5
32446.0
28234.4
28466.3
71.3
1399.2
3.5
28012.7
4459.8
32685.7
28445.5
28677.1
71.4
1299.0
3.2
28175.6
4470.7
32859.5
28598.1
28829.5
71.4
1237.7
3.1
28505.4
4521.4
33240.0
28934.8
29165.3
71.4
1239.7
3.0
28823.1
4573.5
33609.8
29269.1
29498.5
70.6
1253.2
3.0
29147.6
4626.7
33987.5
29611.4
29839.9
71.5
1267.5
3.0
1154555
-
1188510
-
1187700
-
1131552
-
1150852
-
1165643
-
1186216
-
1221222
-
1257465
-
1293521
-
1327434
-
1359661
-
1392054
-
1520215
-
1687362
-
1865418
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change*
Demography
Total population
Working age population
Total migration (000s)
Labour market
Total employees
Self employed
Total employment (jobs)
Total employment (people)
Residence employment
Residence employment rate (pp)
Net commuting (000s)
Unemployment level
Unemployment rate (pp)
Output
Total GVA
Relative productivity (pp)
Housing
Households
Housing stock
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
0.6
0.8
-73.2
0.7
0.6
22.3
0.7
0.5
-19.8
0.6
0.4
-15.1
0.8
0.6
50.4
0.7
0.9
-6.8
0.6
0.7
-50.0
0.6
0.6
-30.0
0.5
0.6
-45.0
0.5
0.5
-5.8
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.3
1.1
0.5
0.5
-0.2
9.6
0.2
0.6
1.9
0.7
1.1
1.2
0.5
-8.6
-0.2
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
-0.2
4.8
0.1
-2.2
0.9
-1.7
-1.9
-1.9
-1.7
69.3
1.6
-1.3
3.2
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.9
-2.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.8
4.3
0.1
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
8.8
0.3
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.3
-3.7
-0.2
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.3
0.5
-6.2
-0.3
1.2
0.8
1.1
1.2
1.2
0.4
-4.5
-0.2
0.9
0.3
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.2
-4.4
-0.2
0.8
0.3
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.2
-7.2
-0.3
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0
-4.7
-0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.0
-0.9
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
3.4
-
2.9
-
-0.1
-
-4.7
-
1.7
-
1.3
-
1.8
-
3.0
-
3.0
-
2.9
-
2.6
-
2.4
-
2.4
-
2.3
-
2.1
-
2.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
* percentage
otherwise
noted but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people)
Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents
thechanges
numberunless
of jobs
in an area,
represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once
Summary tables – UK (continued)
Table 3: Employees by sector
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2022
2027
2032
269.5
66.2
268.1
68.2
272.1
66.1
255.1
65.9
296.0
60.7
277.8
60.6
280.7
57.9
276.6
56.4
272.0
54.8
266.9
53.1
262.0
51.5
257.5
50.1
253.0
48.7
233.4
43.0
210.8
36.2
189.6
30.2
419.6
119.8
78.0
383.8
17.0
190.0
196.0
107.1
381.4
266.9
310.7
317.9
169.0
103.7
1297.5
1694.6
2877.3
1844.0
1589.8
1093.4
4665.7
1555.9
2416.4
3421.9
1461.2
27314.1
416.5
112.1
81.1
372.7
17.0
177.1
184.1
106.3
380.9
269.9
311.4
310.5
165.6
115.6
1301.1
1708.9
2879.3
1836.2
1603.4
1105.7
4848.6
1548.6
2421.7
3423.4
1444.8
27478.8
396.7
103.5
74.5
349.6
17.0
156.3
172.0
100.2
385.2
257.8
294.0
309.3
155.6
115.0
1296.0
1689.1
2912.5
1858.3
1589.0
1123.7
4962.3
1514.4
2436.7
3516.4
1462.2
27585.6
385.3
94.3
65.9
331.3
16.0
145.4
155.1
92.9
379.2
225.6
269.7
300.6
161.2
140.9
1256.2
1591.8
2852.0
1801.0
1538.1
1077.3
4747.6
1540.1
2459.1
3641.0
1401.8
26990.4
391.0
96.6
64.7
316.0
13.0
134.6
164.7
95.3
357.5
195.6
246.4
284.3
166.9
152.9
1175.0
1597.4
2783.9
1747.5
1474.3
1038.8
4716.8
1516.3
2434.5
3748.0
1368.8
26637.4
384.6
93.6
64.5
322.9
14.0
127.7
165.7
99.2
349.7
198.2
251.8
283.5
168.8
159.0
1155.5
1608.5
2739.2
1789.6
1503.2
1046.8
4692.6
1432.7
2398.1
3785.2
1414.0
26586.8
383.2
86.1
63.1
299.2
13.6
124.4
171.2
97.0
346.9
196.6
246.7
286.7
168.9
153.7
1183.1
1619.3
2763.5
1795.0
1517.5
1043.5
4772.5
1403.9
2371.0
3742.2
1390.8
26578.2
380.4
80.4
63.1
293.1
13.4
122.6
174.6
98.0
341.1
196.1
242.7
288.6
168.9
151.9
1207.6
1640.6
2805.8
1822.3
1542.0
1058.6
4986.5
1353.4
2338.1
3721.0
1412.0
26835.7
374.8
74.4
63.3
285.8
13.2
120.4
179.2
99.5
333.2
194.9
238.3
291.5
168.5
150.0
1237.1
1665.3
2854.1
1853.5
1572.9
1071.1
5246.2
1322.0
2306.8
3707.9
1444.6
27195.4
368.3
68.8
62.9
278.3
12.9
117.8
182.9
101.0
324.6
191.4
233.1
288.7
167.9
147.7
1261.0
1683.3
2891.0
1877.4
1602.4
1073.7
5482.7
1302.8
2291.8
3708.0
1483.4
27523.9
361.2
63.4
62.2
270.4
12.7
115.1
184.9
101.4
315.4
186.4
227.8
283.4
166.9
145.6
1281.6
1697.8
2922.0
1897.3
1626.5
1072.9
5659.0
1292.8
2284.6
3719.3
1520.2
27784.3
354.2
58.5
61.3
262.7
12.5
112.3
184.7
101.3
306.1
181.2
222.4
277.8
165.9
143.9
1302.2
1710.8
2950.6
1915.7
1643.7
1073.5
5810.8
1287.2
2280.9
3735.6
1549.2
28012.7
347.3
53.9
60.5
255.3
12.3
109.6
183.1
100.9
297.1
176.2
217.1
272.4
164.9
142.2
1316.5
1719.3
2971.7
1929.3
1654.0
1075.0
5922.6
1284.4
2280.3
3758.1
1570.0
28175.6
321.0
39.0
56.9
227.5
11.4
99.3
172.9
98.9
263.5
157.4
197.3
251.3
161.0
135.5
1354.8
1726.1
3008.5
1952.6
1668.6
1078.5
6189.1
1284.6
2292.1
3861.4
1619.4
28505.4
290.8
26.0
52.5
196.9
10.4
87.9
160.8
95.3
226.9
136.7
175.3
227.1
156.2
127.6
1398.4
1719.6
3029.0
1965.1
1671.8
1080.6
6527.7
1282.5
2302.1
3964.5
1664.3
28823.1
262.6
16.2
48.4
169.3
9.5
77.3
149.3
91.9
193.9
118.0
155.2
204.6
151.5
119.9
1442.9
1713.2
3049.5
1977.8
1675.1
1082.7
6846.8
1280.4
2312.1
4070.0
1709.9
29147.6
Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes
Agriculture
Extraction
Manufacturing of:
Food, drink & tobacco
Textiles, clothing & leather
Wood & wood products
Pulp, paper & printing
Coke, oil and nuclear
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic products
Other non-metals
Metals
Machinery & equipment nec
Electrical & optical equipment
Transport equipment
Other manufacturing nec
Electricity, gas & water
Construction
Distribution
Retail
Hotels & restaurants
Transport & communications
Financial intermediation
Business services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Other personal services
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018-22
avg pa
2022-27
avg pa
2027-32
avg pa
0.1
6.7
-0.5
3.1
1.5
-3.1
-6.2
-0.3
16.0
-7.9
-6.1
-0.1
1.1
-4.4
-1.5
-2.7
-1.6
-2.8
-1.9
-3.1
-1.8
-3.0
-1.7
-2.8
-1.7
-2.7
-1.9
-3.0
-2.0
-3.4
-2.1
-3.6
-3.1
-10.6
0.5
-3.6
0.0
-2.6
-5.0
-1.7
-1.8
-2.8
-4.8
-4.2
-3.1
6.1
3.8
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.4
0.4
4.9
0.2
0.8
1.9
1.4
1.0
-0.7
-6.4
3.9
-2.9
0.0
-6.8
-6.1
-0.7
-0.1
1.1
0.2
-2.3
-2.0
11.4
0.3
0.8
0.1
-0.4
0.9
1.1
3.9
-0.5
0.2
0.0
-1.1
0.6
-4.8
-7.6
-8.1
-6.2
0.0
-11.7
-6.6
-5.8
1.1
-4.5
-5.6
-0.4
-6.0
-0.5
-0.4
-1.2
1.2
1.2
-0.9
1.6
2.3
-2.2
0.6
2.7
1.2
0.4
-2.9
-8.9
-11.6
-5.2
-5.8
-7.0
-9.8
-7.3
-1.6
-12.5
-8.3
-2.8
3.6
22.6
-3.1
-5.8
-2.1
-3.1
-3.2
-4.1
-4.3
1.7
0.9
3.5
-4.1
-2.2
1.5
2.4
-1.9
-4.6
-18.7
-7.4
6.2
2.7
-5.7
-13.3
-8.6
-5.4
3.5
8.5
-6.5
0.4
-2.4
-3.0
-4.1
-3.6
-0.6
-1.5
-1.0
2.9
-2.4
-1.3
-1.6
-3.1
-0.2
2.2
7.6
-5.1
0.6
4.0
-2.2
1.3
2.2
-0.3
1.2
3.9
-1.7
0.7
-1.6
2.4
2.0
0.8
-0.5
-5.5
-1.5
1.0
3.3
-0.2
-0.4
-8.1
-2.2
-7.3
-3.1
-2.6
3.4
-2.2
-0.8
-0.8
-2.0
1.1
0.0
-3.3
2.4
0.7
0.9
0.3
1.0
-0.3
1.7
-2.0
-1.1
-1.1
-1.6
0.0
-0.7
-6.6
-0.1
-2.1
-1.4
-1.4
2.0
1.1
-1.7
-0.3
-1.6
0.6
0.0
-1.2
2.1
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.4
4.5
-3.6
-1.4
-0.6
1.5
1.0
-1.5
-7.4
0.4
-2.5
-1.7
-1.8
2.6
1.5
-2.3
-0.6
-1.8
1.0
-0.3
-1.2
2.4
1.5
1.7
1.7
2.0
1.2
5.2
-2.3
-1.3
-0.4
2.3
1.3
-1.7
-7.6
-0.7
-2.6
-1.8
-2.1
2.1
1.5
-2.6
-1.8
-2.1
-0.9
-0.4
-1.5
1.9
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.9
0.2
4.5
-1.5
-0.7
0.0
2.7
1.2
-1.9
-7.8
-1.1
-2.8
-1.8
-2.3
1.1
0.5
-2.8
-2.6
-2.3
-1.8
-0.6
-1.4
1.6
0.9
1.1
1.1
1.5
-0.1
3.2
-0.8
-0.3
0.3
2.5
0.9
-1.9
-7.8
-1.4
-2.8
-1.8
-2.4
-0.1
-0.2
-3.0
-2.8
-2.4
-2.0
-0.6
-1.2
1.6
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.1
0.1
2.7
-0.4
-0.2
0.4
1.9
0.8
-1.9
-7.8
-1.4
-2.8
-1.8
-2.4
-0.9
-0.4
-3.0
-2.8
-2.4
-2.0
-0.6
-1.2
1.1
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.1
1.9
-0.2
0.0
0.6
1.3
0.6
-1.9
-7.8
-1.5
-2.8
-1.8
-2.4
-1.3
-0.5
-3.0
-2.8
-2.4
-2.0
-0.6
-1.2
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.1
1.3
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.9
0.3
-2.0
-7.8
-1.6
-2.8
-1.8
-2.4
-1.4
-0.7
-3.0
-2.8
-2.3
-2.0
-0.6
-1.2
0.6
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.2
-2.0
-8.8
-1.6
-3.0
-1.8
-2.5
-1.5
-0.7
-3.1
-2.9
-2.4
-2.1
-0.6
-1.2
0.6
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.2
Annex B: Variables in GMFM
The GMFM Technical Note provides more details on the coverage of GMFM, but the
following slide provides a summary of most of the variables contained within the model.
Variables in GMFM
Demography
(Labour market continued)
■ Net commuting
■ Population
– By occupation 9 major groups
– Total and working age (15-59/64)
■ Unemployment/rate
– By 5-year age band, male/female
■ Occupations/rates
– Ethnic minority population
– Workplace/residence based
■ Migration
– By 26 minor occupation groups
– Total and working age (15-59/64)
■ Skills
– 5 year age bands, male/female
– NVQ levels 0 – 4+
– Domestic and international – inflows, outflows and net
■ Births and deaths
Economy
■ GVA (£m, 2006 prices)
– Male/female
– 61 sectors
■ Natural increase
■ Relative productivity (NW = 100)
Labour market
– 25 sectors
■ Employee jobs
■ Average earnings
– Full time/part time – 14 sectors
– 24 sectors
– Male/female – 14 sectors
■ Consumer expenditure
– 59 sectors
■ Household income
■ Self-employed jobs
– 8 sectors – male/female totals
– People based – 8 sectors
■ Total employment
Housing
■ House prices (£000s, indexed 1990=100)
■ Housing stock
– Jobs- and people-based
– By tenure
– 9 sectors
– Demolitions and completions
■ Resident employment/rate
■ Households
– Occupancy rates in 5 year age bands
– Households by tenure
Contact info:
Alan Wilson
Director of Consulting Services, Oxford Economics
01865 268904
[email protected]
Neil Gibson
Director of Regional Services, Oxford Economics
02892 660669
07803 728994
[email protected]
Kerry Houston
Head of Regional Model Development
02892 660669
[email protected]
Helen McDermott
Senior Economist
02892 660669
[email protected]