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Greater Manchester Forecasting Model 2011 report update October 2011 Contents Executive summary Annex A – local summary tables Introduction / background ■ Summary tables – Bolton Macro context ■ Summary tables – Bury What has changed North West outlook Greater Manchester outlook Summary local authority forecasts ■ Bolton ■ Bury ■ Manchester ■ Oldham ■ Summary tables – Manchester ■ Summary tables – Oldham ■ Summary tables – Rochdale ■ Summary tables – Salford ■ Summary tables – Stockport ■ Summary tables – Tameside ■ Summary tables – Trafford ■ Summary tables – Wigan ■ Rochdale ■ Summary tables – Greater Manchester ■ Salford ■ Summary tables – North West ■ Stockport ■ Summary tables – UK ■ Tameside ■ Trafford ■ Wigan ■ Greater Manchester Annex B: GMFM variables Contact information Executive summary A slow and patchy recovery The UK recovery has so far been disappointing, with one off factors such as the Japanese earthquake and a grouping of public holidays in April offering partial explanation but it is clear that the underlying recovery momentum has proved much slower than originally thought. Consequently, the short term outlook has been revised downwards from our 2010 forecast in reaction to a deteriorating global outlook and turbulence in financial markets. Annual UK growth (% change per annum), 1992-2022 % 5 4 3 2 1 0 -11991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 -2 Global factors remain as the primarily downside risks to the outlook, with only a 45% probability attached to our baseline forecasts. -3 -4 -5 -6 Source : GMFM The labour market has remained surprisingly resilient given the weak growth performance. Unemployment has begun to rise again and we expected employment to continue to fall until 2013 when labour market growth is expected to return. UK employment growth (millions), 1992-2022 UK: Employment millions 34 33 The level of jobs growth forecast is more modest than that of the previous decade with growth expected to be led by the business services sector. This very broad sector includes many outsourced manufacturing activities and a wide range of both domestic and international sectors such as legal, consulting, marketing, support services, computer related services and R&D. 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 1991 1995 1999 Source : GMFM 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Greater Manchester to lead the North West Greater Manchester key indicators Employee growth (000s) Employment growth (000s) Resident employment (000s) Population (000s) GVA (£bn) Households (000s) 1998-2008 91.8 109.5 81.0 58.3 8.1 81.5 2008-2012 -28.6 -31.0 -28.6 87.7 0.6 52.0 2012-2022 92.7 102.1 82.5 132.4 12.8 98.1 Greater Manchester employment growth (millions) 1992-2022 millions 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 Job growth is expected to return in 2013, with peak levels of employment achieved in 2008 are not forecast to return until 2015 The employment outlook suggests that the region will return to ‘trend’ growth over the later part of the decade ahead. Almost 100,000 net additional jobs are forecast within GM which is only slightly slower than the decade prior to the recession (110,000 jobs between 19982008). The growth will be lead by the business services sector. 1.20 1.15 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Source : GMFM Greater Manchester annual GVA growth, 19922022 % annual 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 GVA growth is forecast to be 1.7% this year and 1.6% in 2012. However, we forecast growth above 2.5% for the remainder of the decade ahead 1.0 0.0 1992 1996 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 Source : GMFM 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Comparative performance Greater Manchester is forecast to lead the North West’s recovery. GVA growth within the area is expected to be significantly above the North West average matching the UK rate of growth over the medium term. Total employment growth, 2008-2021 (2008=100) 2008=100 106 104 UK North West Greater Manchester 102 The productivity gap is likely to remain unchanged over the forecast period. 100 98 The area’s high concentration of professional services and highly skilled workforce, is the key factor in the driving the forecasts. It is these sectors which we expect to lead the recovery. Contracting public services and manufacturing, along with weaker growth in consumer demand-led sectors, mean that the recovery within the North West will lag behind the UK. Those areas more reliant upon the public sector will have a much more muted recovery. 96 94 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source : GMFM GVA per employee (£000s), 1998-2021 £000s 47 45 43 UK North West Greater Manchester 41 39 37 35 33 31 29 27 1998 2002 Source : GMFM 2006 2010 2014 2018 District overview All areas are expected to enjoy net job growth over the decade ahead, though this is expected to be very modest within Tameside – the result of a higher relative dependence upon the public sector and manufacturing. Significant levels of natural increase is the key factor underpinning the population forecast. Migration remains a crucial unknown within the forecast and the release of the 2010 data suggested record high levels of migrants into the area. Population Employment 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Warrington Wigan Trafford Tameside Stockport Salford Rochdale -0.2 Oldham 0.0 Manchester Manchester, Salford, Trafford and Warrington are expected to see the biggest increase in employment over the decade ahead. This is the result of the sectoral composition of these areas as they have a higher concentration of service sector export activity to help drive the recovery. 1.4 % per annum Bury The majority of GM districts suffered job losses between 2008-2012, with Manchester, Tameside, Trafford the only exceptions. This is likely to be incorrect given other indicators for these areas. Over 40% of GM job losses occurred within Stockport (12,000 jobs). This is largely due to a severe contraction within construction, though we have concerns over the reliability of BRES data. Bolton Population and employment average annual growth, 2011-2021 Source : GMFM Population and employment change, 2008-2021 Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Salford Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan Greater Manchester 2008-2011 Population Employment (000s) (000s) 3.8 -7.0 3.1 -0.9 36.3 2.6 2.4 -3.9 1.4 -1.5 8.7 -5.1 3.3 -11.8 3.7 0.6 5.2 0.6 3.5 -1.6 71.4 -28.1 2011-2021 Population Employment (000s) (000s) 7.1 2.6 8.6 2.8 52.7 41.1 6.3 3.1 4.0 2.8 19.4 15.7 6.8 7.2 11.4 0.8 9.4 14.6 10.8 5.1 136.6 96.0 Key risks On balance the risks to the forecast remain on the downside, we only place a 10% chance on the possibility of an outturn above our central case in 2011 and 2012 (that of a corporate re-awakening). Downside risks to world growth continue to rise and thus we estimate a probability of around 45% for our central case. This is quite low for a baseline scenario and reflects the significant and rising risks that currently exist. These risks are very much skewed to the down side and include: ■ Disorderly Eurozone debt default (probability 20%) ■ US recession (probability 15%) ■ China hard landing (probability 10%) Introduction / background Model overview The Greater Manchester Forecast Model (GMFM) was originally designed as part of the Manchester/Salford Pathfinder project and is now managed by the Commission for the New Economy. The model provides economic, demographic and housing forecasts for the North West Local Authorities. At present the City Region areas are forecast in detail with surrounding Authorities in the region available in less detail. The model is unique in providing a link between housing and the economy and the model has undergone a number of developments since its inception. Annex A provides summary data for each of the City Region councils. Annex B lists the main variables available within the model. Report overview This report includes a summary of the forecasts produced in the sixth annual update of the GMFM model (Autumn 2011). An accompanying technical manual sets out the structure of the model, the linkages within and detailed descriptions of the data used. A spreadsheet containing the majority of the forecast variables is also provided to accompany this report. This report summarises the key economic trends in the global economy, the UK, The North West, Greater Manchester and the individual City Region Local Authorities. This report provides a very brief summary of the information contained and users / interested parties are encouraged to contact the model custodians within the Commission for the New Economy and the GMFM model team at Oxford Economics to discuss any issues or questions they may have. Contacts: Alex Roy Commission for the New Economy Kerry Houston Oxford Economics Purpose and aims The GMFM model has a number of key aims: ■ A consistent evidence base for the City Region for use in strategy and policy development. ■ A set of ‘base case’ forecasts for the City Region prepared by a leading independent forecasting house (Oxford Economics). ■ A starting point for looking at scenarios or alternate futures. ■ A ‘trigger’ mechanism to raise awareness of a wide range of emerging issues, for example impact of migration, housing development etc. ■ An information resource collating a wide range of data in a central location and in a consistent manner. ■ A tool to help capacity building within Greater Manchester with respect to understanding and using forecast material. 2011 update The update process New data included Carried out in August 2011, this is the seventh update of the GMFM model Data cut off was 31st August 2011. New global, UK, North West outlooks New data ■ BRES (2008 revised and 2009) The update includes: Note: 2010 BRES results not included ■ Mid-year population estimates (2010) ■ Application of new forecasts and outlooks ■ Housing stock, house prices, completions, vacancies and demolitions ■ Entry of new / revised data ■ Earnings ■ Presentation of results to AGMA ■ Consultation with Local Authorities on forecasts produced ■ Production of the final report and a data spreadsheet Key data dates: ■ Resident employment (2010) ■ Unemployment ■ Regional GVA (2006 prices) ■ Personal sector (regionally) September 2011 - 2010 BRES (not included) December 2011 - Regional GVA Macro context The recovery has been a bumpy ride so far UK: GDP growth q/q % change 1.5 Revisions to the GDP data show that the recession was deeper than previously thought. The data suggests that the recession involved a peak-to-trough decline of 7.1%, compared to 6.4% in previous estimate. However the length of the recession has been shortened from six quarters to five. Thus far the UK recovery has been slow and patchy, but two unusual factors have complicated the analysis 1.0 ■ Concerns over data quality in the construction sector have made it difficult to determine the underlying trend 0.5 0.0 -0.5 ■ Two winters of heavy snowfall and April’s extra Bank Holiday for the Royal Wedding have all disrupted activity -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: Oxford Economics Up until the past two quarters, the UK recovery had largely kept pace with the 1990s. And while it lagged well behind the US, it had progressed broadly in line with the Eurozone. However, since the turn of the year, it has tailed off. Where do we go from here? The GDP forecast has been revised downwards on the back of a raft of disappointing data and in particular due to the ongoing difficulties within the Eurozone economy. UK growth excluding oil is now expected to be around 1.2% in 2011 and remain sluggish in 2012. ‘Fast’ economic growth above 3% is not expected to return until 2013. Productivity remains some 1.8% below prerecession levels and raises concerns about the extent to which the private sector will respond to any pickup in output by creating jobs. Note: the forecasts presented in this section are taken from the UK October forecasts whereas the remainder of the report is consistent with September UK forecast. The outlook is continually being revised given rapidly changing economic conditions. UK GVA growth (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sep-11 2.9 -0.1 -4.7 1.7 1.3 1.8 3.0 Oct-11 3.7 -0.8 -4.5 1.9 1.2 1.4 3.1 Source: Oxford Economics Note: Non-oil GDP Consumer recovery slow The latest data suggest that UK real disposable income has fallen in 2010, the first fall in real personal disposable income since 1981. UK: Real household disposable income % year 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 This decline is expected to continue into 2011 as rising unemployment and falling real wages continue to take their toll. Thus it likely that the consumer recovery will be slow to take off. Source : Haver Analytics UK: Consumer spending % quarter, annualised rate 8 Forecast 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 1985 1990 1995 Source: Oxford Economics 2000 2005 2010 2015 It seems unlikely that a cut in VAT will be implemented, due to the immediate effect on government finances. Though this could be revisited if retail sales continue to fall as pressure on incomes increases. Remaining a low interest rate environment The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation in the UK reached its record high in September, rising to 5.2% from 4.5% the month before. UK: Nominal interest rates % 18 Short rates 16 Forecast To balance high inflation, interest rates are expected to remain at their historic low levels well in 2012 and perhaps longer. 14 12 Any support for the economy is likely to come in the form of further Quantitative Easing, with the 3rd round announced in October. This remains the preferred method of injecting money into the economy in an effort to stimulate demand. Long rates 10 8 6 4 2 0 1985 1989 1993 1997 Source: Oxford Economics 2001 2005 2009 2013 Core debt problem unresolved Government Gross debt stock, % GDP, 2011 The level of government debt remains an issue with UK gross debt currently estimated at £1.2 tr or £19,000 per capita. Finland Netherlands Slovakia Austria Spain Government spending will continue to remain muted, and will act as a significant drag on growth. UK Germany France Portugal Belgium ROI With little demand from consumer and the public sector, the focus will be on private sector investment and export demand to drive the recovery. US Italy Greece 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Government gross debt stock % GDP (2011) Source: Oxford Economics UK: Contribution of government consumption and investment to GDP growth % of GDP 1.4 Average 1980-97 F'cast 1 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Source: Oxford Economics Labour market ‘standing still’ UK: Employment The employment outlook suggests a continued contraction in the short run before the slow climb in employment begins in 2013. The jobs outlook is much more modest than that of the pre-recession decade. millions 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Source : GMFM UK: Unemployment % 11 Forecast 10 9 8 7 ILO 6 5 4 Claimant count 3 2 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: Oxford Economics The sharp contraction in productivity would suggest that much of the labour needed to increase output may currently be in employment, thus implying a very flat employment profile. Unemployment has begun to creep upwards again and with the growth outlook having weakened considerably, further increases in unemployment look likely. This rate could rise further depending upon how welfare reform measures are implemented. Thus private sector key to the outlook The employment outlook is dependent upon business services to drive growth. This is in response to strong global demand for high skilled professional services. Sectoral employment change, UK, 1998-2022 Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Retail & distribution Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial services Business services Public admin. & defence Education Health & social care Other personal services Total employment 1998-2008 -60 -10 -1460 -20 410 170 260 220 90 1640 180 570 810 370 3060 2008-2012 70 -10 -290 40 -210 -280 -50 -50 -60 -110 -120 -20 290 -50 -860 2012-2022 -100 -20 -470 -20 250 390 170 180 40 1480 -120 -80 130 310 2140 Source: Oxford Economics Note: Top 3 changes shaded in blue and bottom 3 shaded in red The squeeze on public sector will act as a drag to labour market growth. Given the extent of the recent public sector jobs losses despite it is only being the early stages of the austerity programme, there is the risk that the government could have underestimated the scale of jobs losses required to achieve the desired spending cuts. Employment growth within retail & distribution and other personal services is expected to gain momentum over the medium term as pressure on consumers ease. Softer patch in prospect for the UK Forecast for UK (Annual percentage changes unless specified) Domestic Demand Private Consumption Fixed Investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government Consumption Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services GDP Industrial Production CPI Current Balance (% of GDP) Government Budget (% of GDP) Short-Term Interest Rates (%) Long-Term Interest Rates (%) Exchange Rate (US$ per £) Exchange Rate (Euro per £) Source: Oxford Economics 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2.7 1.0 2.6 0.4 1.5 6.2 8.5 1.8 1.9 3.3 -3.2 -10.2 0.69 3.61 1.55 1.17 -0.6 -1.2 -1.4 0.2 1.6 4.9 0.2 0.9 0.1 4.5 -2.1 -7.2 0.89 3.16 1.60 1.15 0.9 0.5 3.0 0.4 -1.0 3.3 2.5 1.1 1.1 2.4 -1.9 -5.4 0.98 2.78 1.55 1.17 1.8 1.9 6.5 0.3 -1.8 7.0 4.2 2.6 1.6 1.8 -1.4 -3.8 1.22 3.84 1.56 1.18 2.0 2.7 4.9 0.3 -2.4 6.7 4.1 2.8 1.7 1.8 -0.7 -1.7 2.27 4.73 1.57 1.24 2.3 3.0 4.4 0.3 -1.7 5.5 4.1 2.7 1.0 2.0 -0.3 -0.7 3.93 4.95 1.57 1.27 Summary Though recent financial market turmoil has largely stemmed from the US and Eurozone, the UK has felt the impact. The combination of financial market turmoil, heightened concerns over the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis and weaker data from the US have weakened UK growth prospects and, as such, we have revised down our forecasts for this year and next. The consumer outlook is also bleak, with a fall in consumer spending growth now forecast for this year. The impact of public spending cuts also remains an uncertainty, though the euro crisis shows why they are needed and so far the private sector has offset public sector job losses. Though markets appear to have stabilised somewhat, the outlook remains very uncertain and risks are skewed to the downside. Downside risks to Oxford Economics’ forecast Bond market stress Disorderly EZ default (20%) ■ Confidence in peripheral countries’ finances deteriorates further, leading to an eventual debt restructuring ■ Pressure intensifies to cut budget deficits rapidly in all major economies ■ Rising unemployment and business failures feed back into banking ■ New wave of loan losses for global banks leads to tighter credit conditions ■ Limited scope for monetary policy offset Recession in USA (15%) ■ Risk premiums rise and global stock markets tumble again with falls in business confidence ■ Continued political deadlock between Democrats and Republicans leads to fiscal paralysis ■ Slump in labour market fuels household retrenchment and consumption falls ■ Renminbi rises sharply as trade pressures grow China/Emerger hardlanding (10%) Oxford forecast (45%) ■ Gradual rise in business confidence encourages corporates to invest ■ But weak banks & excess capacity limit scale of investment recovery ■ Consumer spending recovery limited by pace of job growth and fiscal retrenchment ■ But recovery strong enough that fiscal crisis remains contained ■ Flight from risk leads to falling share & property prices ■ Commercial property crash & external weakness leads to banking sector stress ■ Investment slumps in China as government recapitalises banks ■ Asian supply chain effected as domestic engine of growth stalls Corporate confidence What has changed? Population and migration Population, Greater Manchester, 1991-2020 Population estimates have only been revised modestly from our 2010 GMFM forecast. The forecast is slightly higher in the short run but reaching a similar level by 2030. The 2010 net migration data was much higher than we had expected and what other economic data suggests. Thus it will important to review with the 2011 census results when they become available next year as they are likely to show less migrants than the mid-year estimates data suggests. The migration forecasts in the current release are more modest (and well below the official 2006 or 2008 based projections), though risks exist and it is unclear how migration will react to the economic challenges and the ‘jobless recovery’ which may lie ahead for the UK. Migration remains one of the key uncertainties in our outlook. If population growth were to continue at the recent rate, it would push down employment rates and unemployment upwards unless job creation were to accelerate. 000s 2800 GM GMFM 10 (RHS) 2750 GM GMFM 11 (RHS) 2700 2650 2600 2550 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2500 Source : GMFM Migration in the North West: Oxford vs. SNPP, 1992-2020 000s 25 20 15 North West GMFM 10 North West GMFM 11 SNPP (2006 based) SNPP (2008 based) 10 5 0 1992 -5 1996 -10 -15 -20 -25 Source : GMFM 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Total employment Employment projections have been revised slightly upwards in the short run and downwards in the long run. The short run upward revision is the result of the latest BRES data in which the 2009 data was stronger than we had envisaged in our 2010 report. The labour market has remained stronger than expected and thus our estimate of recession job losses is more modest in the current release. The weaker longer run picture is the result of downward revisions to the public services outlook as spending cuts are fully implemented. The amount of time for the GM conurbation to regain lost jobs remains a worrying statistic, with the forecasts suggesting no return to the 2007 peak before 2015. Employment, Greater Manchester, 1991-2020 000s 1450 1400 GM GMFM 10 (RHS) GM GMFM 11 (RHS) 1350 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1050 Source : GMFM Unemployment & GVA Unemployment, Greater Manchester, 1991-2020 000s The unemployment outlook has been revised upwards in the longer run in light of a weaker labour market forecast. Welfare reform could result in unemployment rising further. Pilot studies suggest that as much as a third of people claiming sickness benefit could move across into unemployment. Recent events have cast a shadow our the UK’s outlook and have led us to downgrade our GVA forecasts. The combination of the recent period of financial turbulence, heightened concerns over the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis and weaker data from the US have led us to revise down our expectations for global growth. In turn this has lead us to scale back our forecasts for UK export growth. We now expect GVA to growth to average 2.1% over the decade ahead, compared to 2.5% in the 2010 report. In GVA terms the outlook for GM is likely to be above the regional average largely due to the sectoral outlook, with professional services expected to be the key driver of the growth. 140 GM GMFM 10 (RHS) 120 GM GMFM 11 (RHS) 100 80 60 40 20 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 Source : GMFM GVA, Greater Manchester, 1991-2020 % % 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 -1.00 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0.00 -2.00 -3.00 -4.00 GM GMFM 10 (RHS) -5.00 GM GMFM 11 (RHS) Source : GMFM North West Outlook A longer term recovery UK forecast: a southern led recovery The forecast continues to suggest an export led recovery with the southern regions playing a significant role given their sectoral composition. The export orientated, service sector led outlook favours the highly skilled southern regions and London in particular. In the devolved and more industrial regions, the period of recovery is much longer due to the impact of pubic sector job cuts, further decline in manufacturing and a limited service sector export base. This suggests a widening of regional growth differentials which had been modestly eroded during the period of public sector growth. Total employment: Regional groupings Index 1990=100 125 South 120 115 110 North 105 100 Midlands 95 18 14 12 10 08 06 04 02 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 00 98 96 94 92 Source : Oxford Economics 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 90 90 16 Devolved administration s North West forecasts North West: GVA growth Given the starting point of the recession, it was hoped that recovery would be well underway by this stage, now it is looking likely that it will be 2013 before growth of more than 2% returns and 2014 before what might be considered ‘fast’ economic growth is enjoyed. This sluggish recovery is the combination of constrained consumers, a retracting government, nervous cash hording businesses and weak global conditions. The employment outlook suggests a continued contraction in the short run before the slow climb in employment begins in 2013. The region is not expected to recover its recession job losses until 2023 at the earliest. Despite the prospects for exports being strong, the level of job growth projected in many sectors is modest. Public sectors job cuts and continued contraction within manufacturing will also add downward pressure to the employment outlook. There is potential for sharper bounce back than our forecast suggest if business confidence rises and they start to spending, thus facilitating faster growth. Recession data suggests firms have spare capacity so there is potential for ‘jobless growth’, however business surveys do not concur. % annual 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 Source : GMFM North West: Employment outlook 000s 3510 3460 3410 3360 3310 3260 3210 3160 3110 3060 3010 1991 1995 Source : GMFM 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 North West North West: Employment by broad sector The fortunes of the private sector are key to the outlook, with financial and business services expected to be the key driver of employment growth over the decade ahead. In the early 2020’s the forecasts suggest that financial and business services will have expanded to be three times bigger than manufacturing. Manufacturing employment is forecast to continue to fall but at a much slower rate. We expect a loss of 57,000 net jobs by 2021 compared to 157,000 jobs losses over the previous decade. As a result of the cutbacks in public spending announced last year, the forecast is for a fall in public services employment. We expect a further 46,000 jobs losses by 2015 (note: this is in addition to the 32,000 jobs lost in 2011), returning to a level last experienced in early 00’s. Public services has been a key driver of recent growth and a contraction within the sector, will have quite severe implications in many areas. 000s 2500 Private services 2000 1500 Public services 1000 500 Manufacturing 0 1991 1995 Source : GMFM 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Key export sectors 000s 900 Financial & business services 800 700 600 500 400 Manufacturing 300 200 1991 1995 Source : GMFM 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 North West The recent employment data suggest that the North West is beginning to feel the impact of the public spending cuts with public services employment reported to have fallen by 32,000 jobs in 2011. This downward trend is expected to continue within the sector with a further 46,000 jobs forecast to be lost by 2015. The majority of the job losses are projected within public admin and defence (17,000), with a loss of over 16,000 within education and 13,000 within health. In the longer run, we expected employment within the sector to remain fairly stable, at a level similar to that of the early 00’s. North West: Public Services Employment (000's) 1000 900 800 700 600 1991 1995 Source : GMFM 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 North West (continued) North West: Unemployment level and rate Unemployment 480 (000s) 430 380 Natural increase is expected to continue to be the main source of population growth within the North West. Migration is expected to fall to a small outflow in the short run due the limited job opportunities during the somewhat slow paced recovery. As highlighted previously, the migration outlook is the key uncertainty within the forecast. If net migration into the region where to continue at the 2010 rate, it would push unemployment higher, employment rates lower, increase pressure on public services and housing. 12.5 10.5 280 8.5 Unemployment (LHS) 230 6.5 180 4.5 130 2.5 80 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 Source : GMFM North West: Net migration and natural increase Natural increase 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 Migration 5.0 000s The result of the sluggish employment outlook leaves unemployment higher than it has been in the recent past. We forecast unemployment to stay above 4% (of the working age population) and remaining at a similar level to the late 1990’s. This rate could rise further depending upon how welfare reform measures are implemented. 14.5 Unemployment rate (RHS) 330 0.0 1992 -5.0 Unemployment rate 1996 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0 -25.0 Source : GMFM 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 North West forecasts (continued) North West: Key indicators Population Employees total Self employed total Employment total Unemployment level Residence based employment Residence employment rate Net commuting GVA total, £m Households North West 2012 2022 6985.7 7197.8 2877.6 3021.9 396.5 410.1 3279.0 3436.3 212.2 156.7 2904.8 3035.4 67.6 69.6 113702.9 141957.4 - Change 2012-22 3.0 (%) 5.0 (%) 3.4 (%) 4.8 (%) -55.5 (000s) 130.5 (000s) 2.0 (pp) 2.1 (% pa) - The financial and business services sector is the key sector driving the recovery. It is expected to gain almost 130,000 net jobs over the decade ahead, though this rate of expansion is slower than the previous decade. Labour market growth will be much slower than that of the previous decade as public services contract. Also the outlook for construction and other personal services is more modest. Unemployment is likely to remain a persistent problem over the decade ahead due to the slow recovery, its sectoral composition, public sector job cuts and population growth. Source: GMFM North West: Change in employment (000s) Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution & hotels Transport & communications Finance & business services Public admin. & defence Education & health Other personal services Total employment Selected sub-sectors Retailing Hotels & catering Financial services Professional business services Additional data Population Unemployment (000s) GVA (£m) 1998-2008 -2.7 -0.5 -199.2 -5.3 53.2 2.2 24.9 175.2 19.6 143.0 42.4 244.7 2008-2012 3.6 -0.5 -23.1 7.6 -45.9 -35.7 -12.3 -7.3 -2.1 -5.3 6.9 -118.4 2012-2022 -6.8 -0.4 -59.6 -1.9 20.9 54.3 17.8 131.9 -15.9 -9.5 27.6 157.3 15.5 11.3 14.6 38.4 -6.6 -15.0 -8.0 16.0 23.9 12.8 0.4 38.7 81.9 -44.6 20531.3 228.7 39.8 16997.8 214.2 -27.6 25683.5 Source: GMFM Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only Greater Manchester A challenging outlook in uncertain times Greater Manchester forecasts Gr. Manchester: GVA growth The forecast suggest that Greater Manchester will lead the North West recovery. GVA growth of 1.7% is expected in 2011 compared to 1.3% for UK. This is due to the sectoral nature of the recovery with business services, which GM has a significant proportion, likely to be the key driver. Employment is expected to continue to decline until 2013 when labour market growth is forecast to return. However, it will take up to 2015 before the area has recovered its recession job losses. Labour market growth will be slower than that of the previous decade as public services contract. % annual 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 Source : GMFM Greater Manchester: Employment outlook 000s 1400 1350 1300 1250 1200 1150 1991 1995 Source : GMFM 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 Greater Manchester Greater Manchester: Employment by broad sector The labour market recovery will be slow and will be sectorally distinct from the pattern of growth which typified much of the previous decade. The fortunes of the private sector are key to the recovery as public sector employment is likely to continue falling as cuts are implemented due to continued weak UK fiscal position. The location of universities and major hospitals in the Greater Manchester area provides some insulation to the public sector job losses as it is likely these front line services will be less severely impacted than other elements of the public sector. Manufacturing is expected to continue its long term rate of decline, though at a much slower rate than the previous decade. Direct manufacturing employment within GM is expected to fall below 100,000 for the first time in 2017. Financial and business services are expected to be the key driver of employment growth over the decade ahead as professional services exports grow and some of the public sector’s current tasks are moved into the private sector. 000s 900 800 Private services 700 600 500 Public services 400 300 200 Manufacturing 100 0 1991 1995 Source : GMFM 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Key export sectors 000s 400 Financial & business services 350 300 250 200 150 100 Manufacturing 50 0 1991 1995 Source : GMFM 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Greater Manchester (continued) Greater Manchester: Unemployment level and rate Unemployment (000s) 170 Many of the unemployed will struggle to return to the labour market due to a mismatch of skills with the needs of the labour market. Consequently, unemployment is expected to remain above 68,000 within GM over the medium term at a level similar to the late 1990’s. This is a reflection of the longer term legacy of the recession and the sectoral nature of the recovery. The introduction of welfare reform measures could see employment rise even further. A key uncertainty within the forecast is the pattern of migration and how it reacts to the sluggish labour market recovery. Unemployment could be higher, if net migration continues at its recent record high level. This will put further pressure of housing and public services if this trend where to continue. Unemployment rate 12.5 150 10.5 130 Unemployment (LHS) 110 90 8.5 6.5 70 4.5 50 Unemployment rate (RHS) 30 2.5 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 Source : GMFM Greater Manchester: Net migration and natural increase 20.0 Natural increase 15.0 000s 10.0 5.0 Migration 0.0 1992 1996 -5.0 -10.0 Source : GMFM 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Natural increase continues to be the primary factor underpinning the population forecast. Greater Manchester forecasts Population growth is stronger than the region as a whole, due to the strong natural increase levels (migration remains a slight outflow in the medium term forecast). The favourable sectoral composition and the areas skills base underpin the stronger labour market growth for GM than for the whole region. Sectorally, business services will be key driver growth. The direct manufacturing sector continues to act as a drag on the labour market outlook, though the loss is much more modest than in the decade past. In GVA terms we expect the sector to grow due to increases in productivity. The public sectors are also expected to contact over the decade ahead. However frontline services such as education and health are expected to be more insulated from job losses than other elements of the public sector. The resident employment rate is expected to remain below the national average at around 70% by 2020. Greater Manchester: Key indicators Population Employees total Self employed total Employment total Unemployment level Residence based employment Residence employment rate Net commuting GVA total, £m Households Greater Manchester 2012 2022 2667.8 2800.3 1129.5 1222.1 140.9 150.4 1270.4 1372.5 88.2 69.5 1096.5 1179.1 64.4 69.1 41.4 45.9 45628.3 58473.9 1160.5 1258.6 Change North West 2012-22 2012-22 5.0 (%) 3.0 (%) 8.2 (%) 5.0 (%) 6.7 (%) 3.4 (%) 8.0 (%) 4.8 (%) -18.7 (000s) -55.5 (000s) 82.5 (000s) 130.5 (000s) 4.7 (pp) 2.0 (pp) 4.5 (000s) 2.3 (% pa) 2.1 (% pa) 98.1 (000s) - Source: GMFM Gr. Manchester: Change in employment (000s) Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution & hotels Transport & communications Finance & business services Public admin. & defence Education & health Other personal services Total employment Selected sub-sectors Retailing Hotels & catering Financial services Professional business services 1998-2008 1.0 -0.1 -79.7 -4.1 18.0 1.6 13.6 86.2 10.3 44.8 17.0 109.5 2008-2012 0.4 -0.1 -11.2 6.0 -23.1 -7.9 -6.9 3.6 0.7 2.8 4.9 -31.0 2012-2022 -0.8 0.0 -22.5 -1.2 9.6 24.8 9.5 72.5 -5.5 3.2 12.6 102.1 9.7 5.0 9.6 14.1 -0.8 -2.2 -5.0 26.0 11.5 6.0 2.0 25.4 Source: GMFM Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only The public sector cuts widespread, resulting in problems for all Local Public Services Employment Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Salford Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan Greater Manchester 2000-2010 2.0 3.9 16.5 5.3 4.0 0.2 4.2 6.0 1.8 3.9 47.9 2010-2015 -1.5 -1.5 -4.6 -1.3 -2.1 -1.6 -2.8 -1.7 -1.6 -1.9 -21.6 2015-2020 -0.1 0.3 1.9 0.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 4.5 Public services employment expanded significantly over the last decade (a net increase of almost 50,000 jobs) and was a key source of employment growth for many local areas. The 2011 data suggest that the cuts are beginning to filter through with almost 9,000 job losses reported in GM. The contraction within the sector will slow the recovery, with forecasts suggesting the lost of over 20,000 jobs over the five period of cuts. All districts within the region are expected to be affected, with the most severe impacts likely to be felt within Manchester city itself. Greater Manchester: public sector outlook The forecasts suggest an end to the recent growth as cuts are implemented, with job loss of around 22,000 expected within the area by 2015. However, employment within the sector only reverts to its 2006 level (though a more severe contraction is a possibility). Job losses are spread across the three public services sectors, within public admin and defence expected to lose around 10,000 jobs, and education and health 12,000 jobs. Modest growth is likely to return to the sector in the long run. Greater Manchester: Public Services Employment (000's) 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 1991 1995 Source : GMFM 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Summary local authority forecasts Note: More detailed forecasts for each Local Authority are provided in the accompanying Excel model outputs. Note: Employment data for districts is available up to 2008 (indicated on charts with a solid line). Regional data up to 2010 (indicated on charts with a dotted line) allows for a reasonable estimate of district employment Forecasts for districts - Bolton Bolton: Employment outlook Bolton: Key indicators 000s Bolton 2012 2022 268.5 275.2 99.1 101.9 13.5 14.0 112.6 115.9 9.0 6.9 107.4 112.4 67.4 73.8 -7.4 -9.8 3513.4 4259.1 115.6 123.8 150 145 Population Employees total Self employed total Employment total Unemployment level Residence based employment Residence employment rate Net commuting GVA total, £m Households 140 135 130 125 120 115 Change 2011-2021 2.5 (%) 2.9 (%) 3.0 (%) 2.9 (%) -2 (000s) 5 (000s) 6.4 (pp) -2.4 (000s) 1.8 (% pa) 8.2 (000s) GM 2011-2021 5.0 (%) 8.2 (%) 6.7 (%) 8.0 (%) -20 (000s) 82.5 (000s) 4.7 (pp) 4.5 2.3 (% pa) - Source: GMFM 110 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Bolton: Unemployment (000’s) Source : GMFM Employment is forecast to continue to contract into 2012 reaching a low of 112,600, almost 7,000 below the 2008 level. Labour market growth is expected to return in 2013, however, employment is not likely to return to pre-recession levels. 10 000's 9 8 7 6 5 Unemployment remains an issue, with the current rate estimated at 4.9% compared to 4.7% in GM and 3.9% in the UK (August 2011). 4 3 2 1 Jul-11 May-11 Jan-11 Mar-11 Nov-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 May-10 Jan-10 Mar-10 Nov-09 Jul-09 Source : Nomis, claimant Count Sep-09 May-09 Jan-09 Mar-09 Nov-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 May-08 0 Jan-08 GVA growth over the period 2011-2021 is much lower than GM rate (1.9% compared to 2.5%), as the weaker labour market performance feeds into output. Mar-08 Forecasts for districts – Bolton (cont’d) Bolton: Change in employment (000s) Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution & hotels Transport & communications Finance & business services Public admin. & defence Education & health Other personal services Total employment Selected sub-sectors Retailing Hotels & catering Financial services Professional business services 1998-2008 0.0 0.0 -8.4 -1.2 2.1 -1.9 1.7 5.3 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.2 2008-2012 0.0 -0.1 -2.0 1.1 -1.6 -1.5 -1.0 -1.8 -0.8 -0.1 -0.1 -7.9 2012-2022 0.0 0.0 -2.3 -0.2 0.7 1.8 0.4 3.3 -0.5 -0.6 0.8 3.3 -1.3 -0.2 1.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.6 The long term employment outlook is for jobs growth of 3,300, driven by business services (3,300) and distribution & hotels (1,800). The manufacturing sector continues to act as a drag on overall growth although a large number of associated industrial services are captured in the business services sector. Population over the next decade is set to reach almost 275,000 persons (an increase of 7,200 persons), driven by natural increases as net migration continues to fall. Net commuting will fall further over the next decade as Bolton’s residents commute to other parts of the region for employment, due to limited opportunities within the district itself. Source: GMFM Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only Bolton: Net migration and natural increase 2.0 Natural increase 1.5 1.0 000s 0.5 0.0 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Source : GMFM Migration 2020 Forecasts for districts - Bury Bury: Employment outlook Bury: Key indicators 000s 75 Population Employees total Self employed total Employment total Unemployment level Residence based employment Residence employment rate Net commuting GVA total, £m Households 74 73 72 71 70 69 68 Bury 2012 185.5 60.1 11.1 71.2 4.9 80.1 71.4 -14.6 2281.6 79.8 2022 194.2 62.9 11.7 74.6 3.8 84.1 75.0 -15.7 2800.4 86.6 Change 2012-22 4.7 (%) 4.6 (%) 5.6 (%) 4.8 (%) -1 (000s) 4.1 (000s) 3.7 (pp) -1.1 (000s) 1.9 (% pa) 6.8 (000s) GM 2012-22 5.0 (%) 8.2 (%) 6.7 (%) 8.0 (%) -20 (000s) 82.5 (000s) 4.7 (pp) 4.5 2.3 (% pa) - Source: GMFM 67 1991 1995 1999 Source : GMFM 2003 2007 2011 2015 Bury: Unemployment (000’s) 2019 Employment is expected to continue to fall in the short run, with growth expected to return in 2014. The outlook is for employment to increase by 4.2% over the next decade, reaching pre-recession levels by 2017. 000's 6 5 4 3 Unemployment , at 3.9%, remains high compared to pre-recession levels but is significantly below the GM average of 4.7%. 2 1 Average GVA growth is forecast at a modest 2.0% per annum, significantly below the GM average. Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 0 Source : NOMIS, claimant count Forecasts for districts – Bury (cont’d) Bury: Change in employment (000s) Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution & hotels Transport & communications Finance & business services Public admin. & defence Education & health Other personal services Total employment Selected sub-sectors Retailing Hotels & catering Financial services Professional business services 1998-2008 0.0 0.0 -6.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 2.0 1.1 0.9 5.4 1.7 4.1 2008-2012 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.1 1.6 -1.1 -0.1 -0.5 -1.3 2012-2022 -0.1 0.0 -1.5 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 1.7 -0.1 0.0 0.9 3.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.5 The long term outlook is for employment to increase by almost 3,500 over the next decade. Growth is dependent upon two sectors- business services and distribution & hotels (particularly retail). Retail growth should be bolstered by the redevelopments within Bury town centre. Manufacturing is forecast to continue losing jobs and act as a drag on growth. Bury also has the highest proportion of public sector employment in GM and there is a downside risk that the forecast job losses over 2011-2015 within public admin & defence and education & health will be higher. Population is forecast to increase by 4.7% over the next decade, driven by natural increase as net Source: GMFM Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only Bury: Net migration and natural increase 1.0 0.8 migration falls and remains close to zero up to 2021. Natural increase 0.6 0.4 000s 0.2 0.0 1992 -0.2 Migration 1996 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 Source : GMFM 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Forecasts for districts - Manchester Manchester: Employment outlook Manchester: Key indicators 000s 390 Population Employees total Self employed total Employment total Unemployment level Residence based employment Residence employment rate Net commuting GVA total, £m Households 370 350 330 310 290 270 Manchester 2012 2022 516.5 566.6 308.7 347.8 23.8 26.2 332.6 374.0 21.0 17.8 201.4 225.1 55.4 60.0 92.4 104.7 13300.8 17713.3 222.7 247.3 Change 2012-22 9.7 (%) 12.7 (%) 10.0 (%) 12.5 (%) -3.2 (000s) 23.7 (000s) 4.7 (pp) 12.3 (000s) 2.7 (% pa) 24.6 (000s) GM 2012-22 5.0 (%) 8.2 (%) 6.7 (%) 8.0 (%) -20 (000s) 82.5 (000s) 4.7 (pp) 4.5 2.3 (% pa) - Source: GMFM 250 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Source : GMFM Employment growth is expected to in return in 2011, with the district returning to pre-recession employment levels (Note: estimates suggest that only 1,000 jobs were lost within the City between 0810). Over 2012-2022 employment in Manchester is forecast to increase by 13,000 jobs. Net commuting over the same period is also expected to increase as jobs are created in the city centre as people commute in from other parts of the region for work. 000's 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Employment rates are forecast to rise over the next decade but remain very low at 60% - the lowest of all GM districts, partly due to a large proportion of students Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Manchester: Unemployment (000’s) Source : Nomis, claimant count Forecasts for districts – Manchester (cont’d) Manchester: Change in employment (000s) Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution & hotels Transport & communications Finance & business services Public admin. & defence Education & health Other personal services Total employment Selected sub-sectors Retailing Hotels & catering Financial services Professional business services 1998-2008 0.1 0.0 -9.4 -0.7 -2.9 -2.1 2.8 30.7 5.2 12.8 5.4 42.2 2008-2012 0.0 0.0 -1.7 0.0 0.0 3.0 -0.6 -1.1 -0.7 3.7 1.8 4.2 2012-2022 0.0 0.0 -2.7 0.0 0.5 7.8 4.5 27.1 -2.4 2.8 3.8 41.4 -1.0 4.0 4.9 6.3 1.0 1.4 -2.8 12.4 3.6 3.0 1.1 14.5 The business services sector remains crucial to economic recovery and jobs growth in Manchester. Though this poses a significant downward risk given that there is some evidence across the UK that the urban renaissance of core cities was beginning to lose pace before the recession. Manchester is forecast to lose 2,400 jobs in public administration over 2012-2022. However the city is expected to be less effected than other core cities which host more central government activities (such as Liverpool and Newcastle). Welfare reform will affect the city, which has the 5th highest welfare per capita bill of the major cities and the recent riots highlighted that high levels of poverty and worklessness (coupled with demographic pressures) could adversely impact on the city’s attractiveness and reputation. The migration data shows little evidence of the recession impact on Manchester’s international in and out migration in 2010. It is questionable in particular whether the outflow of students are being fully recorded (especially international students). But even if overstated the data suggests an attraction of Manchester ‘beyond the economics’ much as is the case with London. In the long term population will be driven by natural increases as net migration falls. Source: GMFM Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only Manchester: Net migration and natural increase 12.0 10.0 8.0 Natural increase 000s 6.0 4.0 2.0 Migration 0.0 1992 -2.0 1996 -4.0 Source : GMFM 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Forecasts for districts - Oldham Oldham: Employment outlook Oldham: Key indicators 000s 96 Population Employees total Self employed total Employment total Unemployment level Residence based employment Residence employment rate Net commuting GVA total, £m Households 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 Oldham 2012 2022 221.1 227.6 72.8 76.0 10.4 11.0 83.2 87.0 8.0 6.3 82.9 88.0 63.1 66.9 -4.2 -6.0 2462.8 3026.9 92.4 97.8 Change 2012-22 2.9 (%) 4.4 (%) 5.1 (%) 4.5 (%) -1.8 (000s) 5.1 (000s) 3.8 (pp) -1.8 (000s) 1.9 (% pa) 5.5 (000s) GM 2012-22 5.0 (%) 8.2 (%) 6.7 (%) 8.0 (%) -20 (000s) 82.5 (000s) 4.7 (pp) 4.5 2.3 (% pa) - Source: GMFM 80 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Oldham: Unemployment (000’s) Source : GMFM Employment is forecast to continue to contract in the short run. We expect total job losses between 2008-12 to be around 4,000 jobs. It is unlikely that employment within Oldham will revert back to pre-recession levels given the sectoral nature of the recovery. 000's 8 7 6 5 4 Unemployment remains high at 5.5%, the 2nd highest within GM, and is forecast to remain above 5% until 2017. 3 2 1 GVA is forecast to grow by 2% per annum over 20112021, significantly lower than the GM rate of 2.5% due to the sectoral composition and sluggish labour market performance. Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 0 Source : Nomis, claimant count Forecasts for districts – Oldham (cont’d) Oldham: Change in employment (000s) Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution & hotels Transport & communications Finance & business services Public admin. & defence Education & health Other personal services Total employment Selected sub-sectors Retailing Hotels & catering Financial services Professional business services 1998-2008 0.1 0.0 -12.6 0.1 1.0 -0.4 0.3 4.5 0.7 5.6 1.0 0.4 2008-2012 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.3 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -4.4 2012-2022 0.0 0.0 -2.7 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.3 2.9 -0.1 0.5 0.6 3.8 The long term employment outlook suggests an increase of around 3,800 jobs over the next decade, largely driven by business services (2,900) and distribution & hotels (1,700). The long term decline of the manufacturing sector will continue to act as a drag on growth although the job losses are much lower than in the previous decade. 2.3 -0.8 -0.7 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.4 The population outlook is driven by natural increase and we expect population to reach 230,000 by 2028. The rate of out commuting is set to increase as residents access employment opportunities outside the district. Source: GMFM Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only Oldham: Net migration and natural increase Natural increase 2.0 1.5 1.0 000s 0.5 0.0 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 -0.5 Migration -1.0 -1.5 Source : GMFM 2020 Forecasts for districts - Rochdale Rochdale: Employment outlook Rochdale: Key indicators 000s 95 93 79 Population Employees total Self employed total Employment total Unemployment level Residence based employment Residence employment rate Net commuting GVA total, £m Households 77 Source: GMFM 91 89 87 85 83 81 Rochdale 2012 2022 206.2 210.3 71.3 74.2 11.7 12.4 83.1 86.6 8.2 5.5 77.2 81.9 62.5 67.9 -0.3 -2.0 2736.7 3388.2 87.5 92.2 Change 2012-22 2.0 (%) 4.0 (%) 5.4 (%) 4.2 (%) -2.7 (000s) 4.8 (000s) 5.4 (pp) -1.7 (000s) 2.0 (% pa) 4.8 (000s) GM 2012-22 5.0 (%) 8.2 (%) 6.7 (%) 8.0 (%) -20 (000s) 82.5 (000s) 4.7 (pp) 4.5 2.3 (% pa) - 75 1991 1995 Source : GMFM 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Employment is forecast to continue to contract in the short run. We expect total job losses between 200812 to be around 2,000 jobs. It is not likely that employment within Rochdale will return to the employment high of 2007 over the entire forecast. Rochdale: Unemployment (000’s) 000's 9 8 7 6 Labour market conditions remain challenging in the short term with unemployment currently at 5.8%, the highest level in GM. The employment rate remains comparatively low and the level of out commuting is expected to increase over the forecast. GVA growth is low compared to the rate for GM given the labour market conditions. 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Source : Nomis, claimant count Forecasts for districts – Rochdale (cont’d) Rochdale: change in employment (000s) Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution & hotels Transport & communications Finance & business services Public admin. & defence Education & health Other personal services Total employment Selected sub-sectors Retailing Hotels & catering Financial services Professional business services 1998-2008 0.0 0.0 -6.0 0.0 0.6 -0.6 2.8 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.6 3.7 2008-2012 0.0 0.0 -2.1 0.0 1.4 -1.8 -0.4 -1.2 1.6 0.1 0.2 -2.1 2012-2022 -0.1 0.0 -2.1 0.0 0.8 1.3 1.0 3.0 -0.6 -0.3 0.5 3.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.8 -0.3 -0.7 -0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.6 Source: GMFM The outlook is for modest employment growth of 3,500 jobs over the decade ahead. At 3.4% per annum the growth rate is considerably lower than the GM average (7.5%). Long term decline in the manufacturing sector (in employment terms) is forecast to continue with the loss of 2,100 jobs over the next decade. The majority of jobs growth in the business services, distribution & hotels and transport & communications sectors. The importance of distribution and logistics to the district is illustrated by Kingsway Business Park’s announcement of a number of new (and intended) occupiers including ASDA’s plan to build a state of the art distribution centre, creating 800 jobs. Investments on this scale could stimulate further business interest in the site. Net migration, at -600 in 2011, is forecast to remain fairly stable over the next decade but natural increase levels are more than high enough to offset the outflow and thus the population is still expected to grow, albeit at a lesser rate than the wider GM region Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only Rochdale: Net migration and natural increase Natural increase 1.5 1.0 000s 0.5 0.0 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 Source : GMFM Migration 2020 Forecasts for districts - Salford Salford: Employment outlook Salford: Key indicators in Salford 000s 145 140 Population Employees total Self employed total Employment total Unemployment level Residence based employment Residence employment rate Net commuting GVA total, £m Households 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 Change 2012-22 8.2 (%) 13.6 (%) 11.7 (%) 13.4 (%) -1.2 (000s) 10.6 (000s) 4.0 (pp) 3.8 (000s) 2.8 (% pa) 8.9 (000s) Source: GMFM 100 1991 1995 Source : GMFM Salford 2012 2022 233.8 253.0 112.4 127.6 11.2 12.5 123.6 140.2 8.5 7.2 99.5 110.2 65.8 69.7 10.0 13.8 4299.2 5800.3 102.8 111.7 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Employment is estimated to have fallen by 5,100 jobs between 2008-2012, with growth expected to return in 2012. Salford: Unemployment (000’s) 000's 9 8 Unemployment has been gradually increasing over the last year and is approaching the high experienced at the end of 2009. The rate is forecast to remain at 5% or above until 2017 and is likely to remain relatively high in the long run. 7 6 5 4 3 2 The outlook is fairly positive with employment growth of 13,100 jobs expected and GVA growth of 3.0% per annum, the highest of all GM districts. Employment is forecast to return to the pre-recession level by 2014. 1 0 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Source : Nomis, claimant count GM 2012-22 5.0 (%) 8.2 (%) 6.7 (%) 8.0 (%) -20 (000s) 82.5 (000s) 4.7 (pp) 4.5 2.3 (% pa) - Forecasts for districts – Salford (cont’d) Salford: Change in employment (000s) Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution & hotels Transport & communications Finance & business services Public admin. & defence Education & health Other personal services Total employment Selected sub-sectors Retailing Hotels & catering Financial services Professional business services 1998-2008 -0.2 -0.1 -7.4 -0.1 2.4 1.2 1.6 14.1 -0.4 7.0 0.4 18.6 2008-2012 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -0.1 -2.2 0.7 -0.6 0.1 -0.4 -2.3 0.8 -5.0 2012-2022 -0.1 0.0 -1.4 0.0 1.6 2.5 0.9 10.8 -0.3 1.2 1.3 16.6 0.5 2.2 4.3 1.4 0.7 -0.2 -1.5 2.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 2.9 Salford’s employment growth prospects are dependent upon the business services sector which accounts for 64% of net employment growth over the period 2012-2022. The completion of MediaCity and the relocation of the BBC will be an important driver of the sector. In total 2,300 BBC jobs are expected to move to the area, of which c.800 have already relocated. The public sector job losses have been revised downwards although some growth is still anticipated in education and health post 2015. Similar to Manchester, the migration figures for Salford for 2010 are high compared to the long term forecast which sees natural increase provide the growth in population. It will be important to compare the current estimate with the 2011 Census results when they become available. Source: GMFM Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only Salford: Net migration and natural increase 3.0 Natural increase 2.0 Migration 000s 1.0 0.0 1992 1996 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 Source : GMFM 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Forecasts for districts - Stockport Stockport: Employment outlook Stockport: Key indicators 000s 152 Population Employees total Self employed total Employment total Unemployment level Residence based employment Residence employment rate Net commuting GVA total, £m Households 147 142 137 132 Stockport 2012 2022 286.7 293.2 117.1 124.1 19.5 20.9 136.6 145.0 6.4 5.2 126.6 134.8 73.6 79.0 -3.5 -4.2 5037.2 6318.7 127.6 137.0 Change 2012-22 2.3 (%) 5.9 (%) 7.3 (%) 6.1 (%) -1.3 (000s) 8.2 (000s) 5.4 (pp) -0.8 (000s) 2.1 (% pa) 9.5 (000s) GM 2012-22 5.0 (%) 8.2 (%) 6.7 (%) 8.0 (%) -20 (000s) 82.5 (000s) 4.7 (pp) 4.5 2.3 (% pa) - Source: GMFM 127 1991 1995 Source : GMFM 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 The short-run labour market outlook is for continued contraction within Stockport – we estimate total job losses of 12,000 over the period 2008-2012. Stockport: Unemployment (000’s) 000's 8 7 6 Unemployment remains high compared to historical lows but at 3.4% is the lowest of all GM districts, a position shared with Trafford. 5 4 3 2 The resident employment rate remains the highest in GM and is expected to continue to rise over the forecast period. 1 0 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 2nd Source : Nomis, claimant count Forecasts for districts – Stockport (cont’d) Stockport: Change in employment (000s) Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution & hotels Transport & communications Finance & business services Public admin. & defence Education & health Other personal services Total employment Selected sub-sectors Retailing Hotels & catering Financial services Professional business services 1998-2008 0.3 0.0 -6.7 -0.8 11.3 -2.8 3.0 9.5 1.7 2.7 1.0 19.2 2008-2012 0.0 0.0 -1.9 3.1 -11.0 -2.5 -2.5 0.7 0.9 -0.8 1.2 -12.7 2012-2022 -0.1 0.0 -2.7 -0.5 2.5 2.1 0.5 6.7 -0.4 -0.7 1.1 8.4 0.9 -0.5 1.3 1.8 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.2 1.4 As at a GM level the majority of employment growth over the next decade in Stockport is within business services. This encompasses a range of services, including many ‘manuservices’ present in Stockport. Employment growth in distribution & hotels is also significant representing the significant retail amenities within the borough. Stockport, as one of the larger districts in population terms, has historically had a negative level of net commuting. The level of commuting is expected to accelerate over the forecast period as residents access employment opportunities within the conurbation (particularly Manchester) or outside GM. Natural increase will continue to drive population growth in the future as net migration falls to around zero by 2016. Source: GMFM Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only Stockport: Net migration and natural increase Natural increase 1.0 0.5 000s 0.0 1992 1996 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 Source : GMFM 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Migration 2020 Forecasts for districts - Tameside Tameside: Employment outlook Tameside: Key indicators 000s 93 91 Population Employees total Self employed total Employment total Unemployment level Residence based employment Residence employment rate Net commuting GVA total, £m Households 89 87 85 83 81 79 77 Tameside 2012 2022 219.2 230.5 67.8 68.8 11.4 11.7 79.3 80.5 7.2 5.5 92.2 95.4 68.8 71.0 -16.9 -19.1 2738.2 3284.4 97.4 106.7 Change 2012-22 5.1 (%) 1.4 (%) 2.6 (%) 1.6 (%) -1.7 (000s) 3.2 (000s) 2.1 (pp) -2.2 (000s) 1.7 (% pa) 9.3 (000s) Source: GMFM 75 1991 1995 1999 Source : GMFM 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Employment in Tameside continues to contract in the short run with labour market expansion expected to return in 2013. Tameside: Unemployment (000’s) 000's 8 7 The long term outlook for Tameside is very challenging with employment in 2022 remaining around 2,100 jobs below the 2007 peak. This is due to the sectoral nature of the recovery with no expansion within the public sector (a key source of growth over the last decade). 6 5 4 3 2 1 Unemployment remains high at 4.8% (6,800 persons) and is expected to remain close to 5% until 2014. In the longer run, no return to historical pre-recession lows is forecast. 0 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Source : Nomis, claimant count GM 2012-22 5.0 (%) 8.2 (%) 6.7 (%) 8.0 (%) -20 (000s) 82.5 (000s) 4.7 (pp) 4.5 2.3 (% pa) - Forecasts for districts – Tameside (cont’d) Tameside: Change in employment (000s) Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution & hotels Transport & communications Finance & business services Public admin. & defence Education & health Other personal services Total employment Selected sub-sectors Retailing Hotels & catering Financial services Professional business services 1998-2008 0.2 0.0 -8.3 -0.8 0.7 1.8 0.7 0.9 0.4 3.8 0.9 0.4 2008-2012 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.6 -2.0 -0.7 -0.1 0.5 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 2012-2022 -0.1 0.0 -2.6 -0.1 0.4 1.7 0.2 1.3 -0.3 0.0 0.8 1.3 1.8 -0.9 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.1 0.2 The sluggish employment outlook is driven by the continued decline in manufacturing and public sector employment , collectively accounting for 2,600 job losses between 2012 and 2022. The outlook is for only 1,300 additional net jobs over the decade ahead. With growth in other sectors such as distribution & hotels (1,700 jobs) and finance & business services (1,300 jobs) likely to simply compensate for within manufacturing and public services job losses Consequently, GVA growth is expected to remain the slowest within Greater Manchester at 1.8% due to limited employment opportunities and the sectoral outlook. Over the period net commuting is expected to increase by 2,300 persons as residents look for employment opportunities elsewhere. Population is forecast to grow by 5.4% over the period, driven largely by natural increase. Source: GMFM Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only Tameside: Net migration and natural increase Natural increase 1.5 1.0 000s 0.5 0.0 1992 1996 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Source : GMFM 2000 2004 2008 2012Migration 2016 2020 Forecasts for districts - Trafford Trafford: Employment outlook Trafford: Key indicators 000s 155 150 Population Employees total Self employed total Employment total Unemployment level Residence based employment Residence employment rate Net commuting GVA total, £m Households 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 Trafford 2012 2022 220.2 229.0 124.5 138.0 13.4 14.5 137.9 152.5 5.0 4.2 100.4 110.3 75.5 83.3 11.6 12.5 5667.8 7435.2 98.1 106.8 Change 2012-22 4.0 (%) 10.9 (%) 8.3 (%) 10.6 (%) -0.8 (000s) 10 (000s) 7.8 (pp) 1 (000s) 2.6 (% pa) 8.7 (000s) Source: GMFM 110 1991 1995 Source : GMFM 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Employment levels are expected to remain fairly stable in the short run, with growth returning in 2012. Recession job losses are expected to be regained by 2013. Employment within the district will reach 150,000 by 2018 and continue to grow in the long run. Trafford: Unemployment (000’s) 000's 6 5 4 3 Unemployment has remained around the 4,500 level since 2009 and the recent rise is not as apparent within Trafford as within other GM districts. 2 1 GVA is forecast to grow by 2.8% per annum over 20112021 which is the third highest of GM districts. This is largely due to the sectoral composition of the labour market forecast. Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 0 Source : Nomis, claimant count GM 2012-22 5.0 (%) 8.2 (%) 6.7 (%) 8.0 (%) -20 (000s) 82.5 (000s) 4.7 (pp) 4.5 2.3 (% pa) - Forecasts for districts – Trafford (cont’d) Trafford: Change in employment (000s) Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution & hotels Transport & communications Finance & business services Public admin. & defence Education & health Other personal services Total employment Selected sub-sectors Retailing Hotels & catering Financial services Professional business services 1998-2008 0.1 0.0 -6.7 -0.7 1.8 5.7 -3.0 9.5 0.9 2.4 2.8 12.7 2008-2012 0.0 0.0 -0.6 1.5 -2.2 -2.1 -0.2 2.8 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.7 2012-2022 -0.1 0.0 -2.1 -0.3 1.2 2.6 0.8 11.1 -0.4 0.0 1.7 14.6 5.3 1.0 -0.2 2.5 -0.5 -0.8 0.3 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 3.1 Source: GMFM Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees Employment growth in Trafford is forecast at 14,600 jobs over the next decade, representing over 15% of the GM total job growth. The business services sector will be the key driver of jobs growth as the manufacturing sector continues to decline (in employment terms). However this sector captures the professional services exports present in the district (particularly at Trafford Park), increasingly termed ‘manu-services’. Public services is not a significant employer within the district, and thus only be a slight decline over of 600 jobs is expected over the decade ahead. The distribution & hotels sector will also be a key source of growth, although at a lower level than the 2010 report due to lower consumer confidence. Net commuting is positive into Trafford with major employment sites such as the Trafford Centre and Trafford Park attracting employees from across the conurbation and outside of GM. Net migration is forecast to fall over coming years and remain fairly stable (although positive) by 2020 . Natural increase will remain as the key contributor to population growth. Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only Trafford: Net migration and natural increase 1.5 Natural increase 1.0 Migration 000s 0.5 0.0 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 Source : GMFM Forecasts for districts - Wigan Wigan: Employment outlook Wigan: Key indicators 000s 120 118 Population Employees total Self employed total Employment total Unemployment level Residence based employment Residence employment rate Net commuting GVA total, £m Households 116 114 112 110 108 106 104 102 Wigan 2012 2022 310.1 320.7 95.6 100.8 14.8 15.5 110.4 116.2 9.9 7.0 128.9 136.8 68.5 73.8 -25.7 -28.2 3590.7 4447.4 136.6 148.6 Change 2012-22 3.4 (%) 5.4 (%) 4.7 (%) 5.3 (%) -2.9 (000s) 7.9 (000s) 5.3 (pp) -2.5 (000s) 2.0 (% pa) 12 (000s) Source: GMFM 100 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 According to the BRES data Wigan was the only GM area to escape the 2008 and 2009 job losses. However, our estimates suggest job loss between 2010-2012, with labour market growth returning in to 2013. The longer term outlook is for employment growth of 4.8% over the next decade although a return to pre-recession levels is not expected by the end of the period. Unemployment remains historically high at 4.6% although on par with the GM rate. GVA growth at 2.1% per annum over 2011-2021 is lower than the GM average (2.5%) due to the district’s sectoral composition. Wigan: Unemployment (000’s) 000's 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 1991 1995 Source : GMFM Source : Nomis, claimant count GM 2012-22 5.0 (%) 8.2 (%) 6.7 (%) 8.0 (%) -20 (000s) 82.5 (000s) 4.7 (pp) 4.5 2.3 (% pa) - Forecasts for districts – Wigan (cont’d) Wigan: Change in employment (000s) Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution & hotels Transport & communications Finance & business services Public admin. & defence Education & health Other personal services Total employment Selected sub-sectors Retailing Hotels & catering Financial services Professional business services 1998-2008 0.5 0.0 -7.8 0.1 1.2 1.0 1.7 6.0 -1.0 3.4 1.7 7.0 2008-2012 0.1 0.0 -1.0 -0.2 -3.4 -1.4 -1.6 2.8 -0.1 2.1 0.4 -2.3 2012-2022 -0.2 0.0 -2.4 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.4 4.4 -0.4 0.3 1.1 5.9 0.9 -0.2 -0.4 0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.0 The short term outlook employment is forecast to grow by almost 6,000 jobs over 2012-2021 driven by business services (4,400) and distribution & hotels (1,900). The manufacturing sector will continue to act as a drag on labour market growth with the overall level of jobs falling to below 10,000 by 2027. With domestic demand likely to remain subdued in the short run, the economy will be reliant on net trade to drive the recovery forwards. This will largely depend upon the global recovery driving export demand within the manufacturing and financial and business services are key sectors within the recovery. Population is forecast to increase by 3.6% over the next decade, driven largely by natural increases. Although the rate of natural increase is set to decline towards the end of the period. Source: GMFM Note 1: Jobs based - includes self employed and employees Note 2: Selected sub-sectors cover employee jobs only Wigan: Net migration and natural increase 1.5 Natural increase 1.0 0.5 000s Migration 0.0 1992 1996 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Source : GMFM 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Annex A: Summary tables Note: Below is a selection from the detailed forecasts provided to each Local Authority in the accompanying Excel model outputs. Summary tables - Bolton Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 262.9 164.9 -0.9 263.0 164.3 -0.9 263.8 163.9 -0.4 265.1 163.8 -0.1 266.5 163.7 0.0 267.6 163.3 -0.2 268.5 162.6 -0.4 269.4 162.0 -0.4 270.2 161.3 -0.5 270.9 160.6 -0.5 271.6 159.8 -0.6 272.3 159.0 -0.6 273.0 158.3 -0.6 275.2 155.3 -0.6 276.6 151.9 -0.6 276.7 148.8 -0.6 105.8 13.3 119.1 104.8 114.8 71.2 -10.1 4.5 2.8 106.5 13.9 120.4 105.8 114.4 71.2 -8.6 4.3 2.6 106.4 14.1 120.5 107.2 114.8 71.6 -7.6 4.8 2.9 103.2 14.1 117.3 104.1 110.1 68.7 -6.0 7.9 4.8 100.7 14.4 115.1 102.2 109.0 68.0 -6.8 7.6 4.7 99.8 13.7 113.5 100.7 107.9 67.5 -7.2 8.5 5.2 99.1 13.5 112.6 99.9 107.4 67.4 -7.4 9.0 5.5 99.6 13.7 113.3 100.5 108.2 68.2 -7.7 8.8 5.4 100.5 13.8 114.3 101.4 109.3 69.2 -7.9 8.4 5.2 101.2 13.9 115.1 102.1 110.3 70.0 -8.2 8.1 5.0 101.7 13.9 115.7 102.6 111.0 70.8 -8.4 7.7 4.8 102.1 13.9 116.1 102.9 111.6 71.5 -8.7 7.3 4.6 102.3 13.9 116.2 103.0 112.0 72.1 -8.9 6.9 4.4 101.9 14.0 115.9 102.6 112.4 73.8 -9.8 6.9 4.5 100.9 13.9 114.8 101.4 112.3 75.4 -10.9 7.1 4.7 99.8 13.8 113.6 100.2 112.1 76.9 -11.9 7.3 4.9 3561 91.9 3523 88.3 3555 87.8 3425 89.9 3449 90.2 3482 90.2 3513 90.0 3597 89.8 3682 89.7 3763 89.6 3838 89.5 3909 89.3 3979 89.3 4259 89.0 4608 88.7 4973 88.6 111 117088 112 117867 112 119254 113 118800 114 119170 115 119523 116 120549 117 121482 117 122429 118 123362 119 124260 120 125135 121 125991 124 129278 127 133146 131 136781 Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.5 0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.3 -0.5 0.0 0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 -3.8 -3.2 -3.7 -4.6 -0.7 -0.5 -4.3 11.8 0.3 0.7 4.7 1.1 1.0 -0.3 0.0 1.4 -5.9 -0.2 -0.1 1.8 0.1 1.3 0.3 0.4 1.1 12.4 0.3 -3.0 -0.4 -2.7 -3.0 -4.1 -2.9 1.5 64.9 1.9 -2.4 1.9 -1.9 -1.8 -1.0 -0.7 -0.8 -3.7 -0.2 -0.9 -4.7 -1.4 -1.4 -1.0 -0.5 -0.4 11.0 0.5 -0.7 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 6.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 -0.2 -1.8 -0.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 -0.2 -5.0 -0.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 -0.2 -3.8 -0.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 -0.3 -4.0 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 -0.3 -6.2 -0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 -0.2 -4.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.5 -0.2 -0.9 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.2 0.7 0.1 -4.2 -0.7 -1.1 -3.6 0.9 -0.5 -3.7 2.1 0.7 0.3 1.0 -0.1 0.9 -0.2 2.4 -0.1 2.4 -0.1 2.2 -0.1 2.0 -0.2 1.8 -0.1 1.8 -0.1 1.7 -0.1 1.6 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.7 -0.4 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 * percentage changes unless otherwise noted Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – Bolton (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0 1.8 0.2 1.8 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.3 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.5 0.3 6.7 8.4 12.4 5.6 4.1 3.3 15.4 7.9 8.1 12.7 4.3 105.8 2.9 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.3 1.9 1.2 1.5 0.8 1.6 0.3 7.1 8.8 12.5 6.0 4.2 3.6 15.4 5.5 8.9 13.3 4.5 106.5 2.7 0.9 0.1 1.5 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 1.7 0.7 1.5 0.2 6.3 8.3 12.3 5.5 5.8 3.8 15.4 5.9 9.5 13.3 5.1 106.4 2.7 0.9 0.3 1.3 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 1.5 1.2 1.4 0.7 1.4 1.2 6.2 7.6 12.2 5.6 4.9 3.4 14.7 5.5 9.1 14.3 4.9 103.2 2.7 0.9 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.2 1.4 1.0 1.3 0.6 1.4 1.3 5.4 7.8 12.2 5.2 4.8 3.1 13.8 5.6 9.2 14.2 5.0 100.7 2.7 0.8 0.3 1.3 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.2 1.3 1.0 1.3 0.6 1.5 1.3 5.0 7.8 12.0 5.1 4.8 3.1 14.2 5.2 9.2 13.6 5.3 99.8 2.7 0.8 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.2 1.3 1.0 1.3 0.6 1.5 1.3 5.1 7.9 12.0 5.1 4.9 3.1 14.3 5.1 9.0 13.4 5.1 99.1 2.7 0.7 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.2 1.3 1.0 1.3 0.7 1.4 1.3 5.2 8.0 12.1 5.1 4.9 3.2 14.8 4.9 8.9 13.3 5.2 99.6 2.7 0.7 0.3 1.1 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.2 1.3 1.0 1.3 0.7 1.4 1.2 5.3 8.1 12.3 5.2 5.0 3.2 15.5 4.8 8.7 13.2 5.3 100.5 2.6 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.2 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.6 1.4 1.2 5.3 8.2 12.5 5.3 5.1 3.2 16.0 4.7 8.6 13.2 5.4 101.2 2.6 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.2 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.6 1.4 1.2 5.4 8.2 12.6 5.3 5.1 3.3 16.4 4.7 8.6 13.2 5.5 101.7 2.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.2 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.6 1.4 1.2 5.5 8.3 12.7 5.3 5.2 3.3 16.8 4.7 8.5 13.2 5.6 102.1 2.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.2 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.6 1.4 1.1 5.5 8.3 12.8 5.4 5.2 3.3 17.0 4.7 8.5 13.2 5.6 102.3 2.3 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.2 1.0 0.7 1.2 0.5 1.4 1.1 5.6 8.3 12.8 5.3 5.2 3.3 17.3 4.6 8.4 13.4 5.7 101.9 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.2 0.8 0.5 1.1 0.5 1.3 1.0 5.6 8.3 12.7 5.3 5.1 3.4 17.7 4.6 8.3 13.5 5.7 100.9 1.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.2 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 5.7 8.2 12.6 5.2 5.0 3.5 18.0 4.5 8.2 13.6 5.7 99.8 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 14.7 -7.0 -23.9 190.3 7.8 -30.1 -14.7 39.6 26.6 -80.0 -15.7 -13.0 1.7 -4.5 -0.9 -2.8 -1.0 -3.0 -1.3 -3.2 -1.2 -3.2 -1.1 -3.0 -1.1 -2.9 -1.4 -3.2 -1.4 -3.6 -1.5 -3.8 11.2 -3.0 28.2 8.5 0.0 -3.7 9.8 10.8 -6.9 -14.2 -4.1 30.5 14.2 -27.4 4.7 -1.1 -8.8 -6.2 5.9 1.6 5.8 -37.1 -6.6 10.9 -8.6 -3.8 -1.7 -32.1 5.7 -8.6 0.0 10.1 12.0 9.2 12.5 -7.8 11.2 -9.9 3.1 -11.5 5.7 4.5 1.2 8.4 2.7 8.6 0.1 -30.4 10.2 5.0 3.0 0.7 -7.1 -24.3 -37.3 -12.8 0.0 -23.4 -9.5 -25.7 -10.3 -9.4 17.0 -12.3 -6.8 -38.3 -10.8 -5.9 -1.5 -8.8 38.5 6.1 0.2 7.4 6.7 -0.1 15.0 -0.1 -1.3 -7.2 113.0 -10.5 102.6 19.0 -32.5 -25.5 -11.1 11.4 -18.0 -4.1 -4.2 553.7 -2.9 -8.1 -1.4 2.4 -16.5 -11.6 -4.7 -7.5 -4.3 7.1 -3.9 -3.0 0.3 -1.2 -4.1 -5.4 -19.9 -15.5 5.6 3.7 -7.5 -16.3 -8.1 -7.1 2.4 9.2 -12.1 2.9 0.7 -7.1 -1.2 -9.5 -6.4 2.0 1.5 -0.9 1.7 -2.4 -0.3 -2.6 0.7 3.5 7.8 -6.7 2.0 7.5 -2.9 0.2 3.6 0.0 1.6 5.5 -8.0 -0.3 -2.4 -2.5 0.5 2.4 3.4 -6.2 -0.4 -3.8 4.9 -0.9 -0.1 -8.3 -2.3 -7.7 -3.5 -2.3 4.4 0.1 -1.1 -2.5 -0.8 0.7 -0.2 -3.9 1.7 0.6 0.2 -0.7 0.4 -0.3 0.4 -2.3 -1.8 -1.7 -2.8 -0.7 -0.4 -6.8 -0.1 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 3.0 3.3 -2.0 -2.0 -0.4 0.2 -0.2 -1.9 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.8 3.8 -3.6 -1.8 -0.8 1.3 0.6 -1.2 -7.5 0.3 -2.9 -2.2 -1.6 3.6 3.7 -2.6 -2.3 -0.7 0.6 -0.5 -1.9 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.4 4.4 -2.3 -1.7 -0.6 1.9 0.9 -1.5 -7.7 -0.7 -3.1 -2.2 -1.9 3.1 3.6 -2.9 -3.5 -1.0 -1.4 -0.6 -2.1 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.5 0.4 3.7 -1.5 -1.0 -0.2 2.3 0.7 -1.7 -7.9 -1.2 -3.3 -2.2 -2.1 2.0 2.5 -3.1 -4.4 -1.2 -2.3 -0.8 -2.0 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.2 2.5 -0.8 -0.7 0.0 2.0 0.5 -1.7 -7.9 -1.5 -3.3 -2.2 -2.2 0.8 1.8 -3.3 -4.5 -1.3 -2.4 -0.8 -1.8 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 2.0 -0.5 -0.5 0.2 1.5 0.4 -1.7 -7.9 -1.5 -3.3 -2.2 -2.2 0.0 1.5 -3.3 -4.5 -1.3 -2.4 -0.8 -1.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.9 0.2 -1.7 -7.9 -1.5 -3.3 -2.2 -2.2 -0.4 1.3 -3.3 -4.6 -1.4 -2.4 -0.8 -1.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.7 -0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 -1.7 -7.9 -1.7 -3.3 -2.2 -2.2 -0.6 0.9 -3.3 -4.9 -1.5 -2.4 -0.8 -1.8 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -1.8 -9.0 -1.6 -3.3 -2.3 -2.4 -0.7 0.8 -3.6 -5.5 -1.6 -2.5 -0.7 -1.8 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 Summary tables - Bury Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 181.2 113.9 -0.5 181.6 113.8 -0.1 181.6 113.2 -0.7 182.6 113.4 0.4 183.8 114.0 0.4 184.7 114.3 0.2 185.5 114.4 0.0 186.4 114.5 0.1 187.2 114.5 0.0 188.1 114.5 0.0 188.9 114.5 0.0 189.8 114.4 0.0 190.6 114.4 0.0 194.2 114.2 0.0 198.2 114.1 0.0 201.5 113.7 0.0 62.7 10.6 73.4 66.2 86.0 77.2 -19.8 2.3 2.0 63.4 10.5 73.9 66.9 84.3 75.8 -17.4 2.2 2.0 61.9 10.7 72.6 66.7 83.5 75.4 -16.7 2.6 2.3 61.9 11.2 73.0 67.2 81.8 73.7 -14.6 4.5 4.0 61.1 11.6 72.7 66.9 81.3 72.8 -14.4 4.3 3.8 60.6 11.1 71.7 66.0 80.5 71.9 -14.5 4.6 4.0 60.1 11.1 71.2 65.5 80.1 71.4 -14.6 4.9 4.3 60.5 11.2 71.7 65.9 80.7 71.9 -14.8 4.8 4.2 61.0 11.3 72.3 66.5 81.5 72.6 -15.0 4.6 4.0 61.5 11.4 72.9 67.1 82.3 73.2 -15.2 4.4 3.8 61.9 11.5 73.4 67.5 82.8 73.8 -15.4 4.2 3.7 62.3 11.5 73.8 67.8 83.3 74.2 -15.5 4.0 3.5 62.5 11.5 74.1 68.0 83.6 74.5 -15.6 3.8 3.3 62.9 11.7 74.6 68.5 84.1 75.0 -15.7 3.8 3.4 63.2 11.8 75.0 68.7 84.3 75.2 -15.6 4.0 3.5 63.4 12.0 75.4 69.0 84.2 75.4 -15.2 4.2 3.7 2300 96.4 2288 93.5 2250 92.3 2198 92.6 2235 92.6 2261 92.7 2282 92.4 2338 92.3 2395 92.2 2450 92.1 2501 91.8 2550 91.7 2599 91.5 2800 90.9 3060 90.2 3334 89.5 76 79564 77 80226 77 80898 77 80670 78 80870 79 81081 80 81929 81 82675 81 83405 82 84082 82 84719 83 85372 84 86046 87 88925 91 93013 95 97357 Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 0.6 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.1 0.0 5.2 7.4 5.5 5.6 -0.3 -0.4 3.8 16.9 0.3 1.1 -1.6 0.7 1.1 -2.0 -1.4 2.4 -2.0 0.0 -2.4 2.1 -1.8 -0.2 -0.9 -0.4 0.7 15.9 0.3 0.0 4.4 0.7 0.6 -2.0 -1.7 2.1 76.2 1.7 -1.3 3.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 0.2 -5.4 -0.2 -0.8 -3.9 -1.3 -1.4 -0.9 -0.9 -0.2 7.7 0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 5.7 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 -0.2 -1.7 -0.1 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 -0.2 -4.9 -0.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 -0.2 -3.6 -0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 -0.2 -3.8 -0.1 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 -0.1 -6.0 -0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -4.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.0 5.7 -0.2 -0.5 -2.9 -1.7 -1.2 -2.3 0.3 1.7 0.0 1.2 0.1 0.9 -0.3 2.5 -0.1 2.4 -0.1 2.3 -0.1 2.1 -0.2 1.9 -0.2 1.9 -0.2 1.9 -0.2 1.8 -0.1 1.7 -0.1 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.7 -0.3 1.1 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 * percentage changes unless otherwise noted Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – Bury (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.1 0.7 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.2 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.5 4.0 7.5 4.2 4.7 1.2 6.4 1.9 6.3 11.8 3.8 62.7 0.3 1.1 0.1 0.7 0.0 1.0 1.1 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.0 2.6 4.1 7.5 4.0 4.1 1.1 6.9 3.8 6.2 11.7 3.2 63.4 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.2 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.6 3.9 7.4 3.7 4.1 1.1 6.4 2.9 6.1 12.7 3.6 61.9 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.1 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.8 3.5 7.7 3.7 3.7 1.3 7.3 1.9 6.4 12.9 3.0 61.9 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.1 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.5 3.6 7.8 3.5 3.8 1.2 7.1 2.0 6.5 12.8 3.1 61.1 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.3 3.6 7.6 3.4 3.9 1.2 7.4 1.9 6.5 12.3 3.3 60.6 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.4 3.6 7.6 3.4 3.9 1.2 7.5 1.8 6.3 12.1 3.2 60.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.4 3.7 7.8 3.4 4.0 1.2 7.7 1.7 6.2 12.1 3.3 60.5 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.5 3.8 7.9 3.5 4.1 1.2 8.1 1.7 6.1 12.0 3.4 61.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.5 3.8 8.0 3.5 4.1 1.2 8.4 1.7 6.1 12.0 3.5 61.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.5 3.8 8.1 3.5 4.2 1.1 8.6 1.7 6.1 12.0 3.6 61.9 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.6 3.9 8.2 3.6 4.3 1.1 8.8 1.7 6.0 12.1 3.6 62.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.6 3.9 8.2 3.6 4.3 1.1 8.9 1.7 6.0 12.1 3.7 62.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.7 3.9 8.3 3.6 4.4 1.1 9.2 1.7 6.0 12.4 3.9 62.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.7 3.9 8.4 3.6 4.4 1.1 9.5 1.7 6.0 12.7 4.1 63.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.8 3.9 8.5 3.6 4.5 1.1 9.8 1.7 6.0 12.9 4.2 63.4 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa -12.6 85.4 10.6 -54.9 24.6 24.8 -11.9 -21.0 26.0 -27.2 -16.1 -13.7 1.2 -5.4 -1.4 -3.6 -1.5 -3.8 -1.8 -4.0 -1.7 -4.0 -1.6 -3.8 -1.6 -3.7 -1.8 -4.0 -1.9 -4.3 -1.9 -4.6 18.8 10.6 -17.3 14.1 66.3 8.0 -3.9 -14.6 -5.6 21.8 -9.3 19.2 23.9 33.9 10.7 -7.1 -3.7 -2.2 27.5 18.0 14.5 -25.0 8.9 5.5 21.9 5.2 2.3 -16.4 80.9 -1.2 -14.4 -14.8 -5.1 11.7 1.5 16.6 5.4 -28.9 26.6 99.3 5.6 2.3 -0.7 -4.7 -13.1 -5.5 6.8 101.6 -2.4 -1.0 -15.6 1.1 30.0 -39.1 -62.4 0.6 7.0 -9.7 26.2 -29.9 -9.2 -30.5 -13.0 -22.2 -33.0 6.6 0.4 -5.5 -0.3 -7.4 -0.4 -2.9 -7.6 -22.7 -0.4 8.8 9.7 -2.4 13.5 16.7 236.1 -22.9 87.1 2.2 -2.1 -4.9 -1.4 16.0 25.2 54.3 21.6 -19.2 4.1 -9.1 3.8 0.4 -10.8 21.2 15.2 -33.4 4.1 1.2 -15.4 0.0 -0.4 2.0 -6.5 -6.3 -19.9 -18.5 4.3 0.9 -7.1 -14.8 -10.4 -6.8 2.4 1.9 -9.2 3.0 0.8 -7.0 3.0 -8.8 -3.3 2.1 1.7 -0.7 2.8 -1.3 -1.0 -3.1 -1.9 2.5 7.8 -8.6 0.8 4.6 -2.3 2.1 1.5 1.9 1.6 8.8 -6.7 -0.2 -2.3 -2.4 2.7 0.5 4.8 -6.1 -0.3 -3.7 6.1 -0.8 -0.8 -7.9 -4.9 -8.6 -3.5 -3.0 3.1 -2.6 -0.5 -0.6 -2.6 1.0 -0.2 -1.7 1.7 0.7 0.3 -0.6 1.0 -1.6 0.5 -2.2 -1.7 -1.6 -2.1 -0.7 -1.1 -6.5 -2.9 -3.4 -1.9 -1.9 1.8 0.7 -1.4 -0.1 -2.2 0.5 -0.2 0.3 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.8 0.4 3.9 -3.5 -1.6 -0.7 2.0 0.6 -1.9 -7.1 -2.5 -3.9 -2.2 -2.3 2.4 1.1 -2.0 -0.5 -2.4 0.8 -0.5 0.3 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.6 2.1 0.0 4.5 -2.2 -1.5 -0.4 2.6 0.9 -2.1 -7.4 -3.6 -4.0 -2.2 -2.5 1.9 1.1 -2.3 -1.6 -2.7 -1.1 -0.6 0.0 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.2 2.0 -0.8 3.7 -1.3 -0.8 -0.1 3.0 0.8 -2.3 -7.6 -4.1 -4.2 -2.2 -2.8 0.9 0.1 -2.6 -2.5 -2.8 -2.0 -0.8 0.0 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.7 -1.0 2.6 -0.6 -0.5 0.2 2.8 0.7 -2.3 -7.6 -4.4 -4.3 -2.2 -2.9 -0.3 -0.6 -2.7 -2.6 -2.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.2 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.2 -0.8 2.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.4 2.3 0.6 -2.3 -7.6 -4.5 -4.3 -2.2 -2.9 -1.1 -0.8 -2.7 -2.6 -2.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 -0.7 1.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 1.7 0.4 -2.3 -7.6 -4.7 -4.3 -2.2 -2.9 -1.5 -0.9 -2.7 -2.6 -2.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 -0.7 0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.6 1.3 0.2 -2.3 -7.6 -5.3 -4.4 -2.2 -2.9 -1.6 -1.1 -2.7 -2.7 -2.8 -2.2 -0.8 0.0 0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.7 0.7 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 -2.4 -8.6 -6.3 -4.8 -2.3 -3.0 -1.8 -1.1 -2.9 -2.8 -2.9 -2.3 -0.7 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 Summary tables - Manchester Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 455.7 319.1 5.7 465.2 328.2 6.0 473.2 334.8 4.2 483.8 344.1 6.5 498.8 357.0 10.8 509.5 365.9 6.9 516.5 370.8 2.7 522.4 373.7 1.3 527.8 375.8 0.4 532.7 377.2 -0.3 538.4 379.1 0.1 543.3 380.3 -0.8 548.5 381.7 -0.7 566.6 385.2 -1.8 580.9 384.7 -3.9 583.7 375.1 -6.6 308.7 21.8 330.5 288.1 186.2 59.7 101.9 11.4 3.6 308.7 21.8 330.5 288.0 191.8 59.8 96.2 11.1 3.4 306.3 22.1 328.4 287.7 191.8 58.5 95.9 11.5 3.4 305.5 23.5 329.0 290.6 191.5 56.8 99.2 17.2 5.0 302.9 24.6 327.5 289.6 198.7 56.8 90.9 17.8 5.0 307.1 23.9 331.0 292.4 200.4 55.8 92.1 19.5 5.3 308.7 23.8 332.6 293.8 201.4 55.4 92.4 21.0 5.7 313.8 24.2 338.0 298.6 204.3 55.7 94.3 20.9 5.6 320.0 24.6 344.6 304.4 207.8 56.4 96.7 20.1 5.3 325.7 24.9 350.6 309.7 211.0 57.1 98.8 19.5 5.2 330.8 25.1 355.9 314.4 213.8 57.7 100.5 19.0 5.0 335.3 25.3 360.6 318.4 216.4 58.3 102.0 18.0 4.7 338.9 25.5 364.4 321.7 218.7 58.7 103.1 17.3 4.5 347.8 26.2 374.0 329.8 225.1 60.0 104.7 17.8 4.6 354.0 26.7 380.7 335.3 231.2 61.9 104.1 18.7 4.9 355.8 26.9 382.7 336.7 235.3 64.6 101.5 19.6 5.2 12570 116.9 13057 119.2 13061 118.4 12428 116.3 12625 116.1 12995 115.4 13301 115.3 13769 115.3 14219 115.0 14679 114.8 15138 114.6 15573 114.6 16014 114.6 17713 114.6 19753 114.6 21712 114.8 195 203238 199 208295 203 213965 209 208230 216 209730 220 210987 223 214855 225 217223 227 219438 230 221714 232 223973 235 226621 237 229003 247 238766 258 250138 265 258181 Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 1.9 3.0 0.1 2.1 2.9 0.4 1.7 2.0 -1.9 2.2 2.8 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.3 2.2 2.5 -3.9 1.4 1.3 -4.3 1.1 0.8 -1.4 1.0 0.6 -0.8 0.9 0.4 -0.7 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.3 -0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.3 -0.2 0.5 0.0 -0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.6 2.5 -2.4 2.2 1.9 5.5 1.4 -4.3 8.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 3.0 0.0 -5.8 -2.9 -0.2 -0.8 1.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 -1.2 -0.2 3.4 0.0 -0.3 6.3 0.2 1.0 -0.2 -1.7 3.2 50.1 1.6 -0.8 4.4 -0.5 -0.4 3.8 -0.1 -8.3 3.6 0.0 1.4 -2.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 -1.0 1.2 9.2 0.3 0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.3 8.1 0.4 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 0.4 1.9 -0.7 -0.1 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.7 0.7 2.4 -3.9 -0.2 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.7 2.1 -2.7 -0.2 1.6 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.5 1.8 -2.9 -0.2 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.6 1.5 -5.2 -0.3 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.4 1.1 -3.4 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.1 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 -0.5 1.0 0.1 3.8 1.5 3.9 2.4 0.0 -0.8 -4.9 -2.1 1.6 -0.2 2.9 -0.7 2.4 0.0 3.5 -0.1 3.3 -0.3 3.2 -0.2 3.1 -0.1 2.9 -0.1 2.8 0.0 2.6 0.0 2.2 0.0 1.9 0.0 2.0 1.0 2.2 2.5 2.1 2.7 2.8 -2.7 3.4 0.7 1.8 0.6 1.1 1.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 * percentage changes unless otherwise noted Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – Manchester (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2 1.6 0.2 2.4 0.0 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.2 6.6 14.1 22.9 22.3 30.2 25.7 66.2 22.3 32.9 35.8 15.8 308.7 2.0 1.4 0.1 2.5 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.9 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 5.9 14.4 23.2 23.0 29.6 25.2 67.2 21.7 31.2 36.8 15.5 308.7 2.0 1.4 0.1 2.0 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 5.5 12.5 23.4 21.6 29.4 25.5 69.7 20.3 31.8 37.7 15.3 306.3 1.7 1.3 0.1 1.7 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.2 6.2 12.7 24.6 24.2 27.0 23.2 67.2 20.5 32.5 38.9 15.5 305.5 1.7 1.2 0.1 1.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.1 5.6 13.0 23.9 23.1 27.2 21.7 65.4 21.2 33.9 39.6 16.2 302.9 1.7 1.2 0.1 1.7 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.2 5.2 13.0 23.9 22.9 28.1 22.8 68.7 20.0 34.3 38.7 17.2 307.1 1.6 1.1 0.1 1.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.2 5.3 13.1 24.4 23.0 28.5 22.7 70.7 19.6 34.0 38.5 16.9 308.7 1.6 1.0 0.1 1.5 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.2 5.4 13.3 25.0 23.5 29.0 23.1 74.5 18.8 33.7 38.5 17.2 313.8 1.6 1.0 0.1 1.5 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.1 5.6 13.4 25.6 24.0 29.7 23.4 78.7 18.4 33.4 38.5 17.7 320.0 1.5 0.9 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.1 5.6 13.6 26.0 24.4 30.4 23.5 82.6 18.0 33.3 38.7 18.2 325.7 1.5 0.8 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.1 5.7 13.7 26.5 24.8 31.0 23.6 85.6 17.9 33.3 39.0 18.7 330.8 1.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.1 5.8 13.8 26.9 25.1 31.5 23.6 88.4 17.7 33.4 39.3 19.1 335.3 1.4 0.7 0.1 1.3 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.1 5.8 13.9 27.2 25.4 31.8 23.7 90.5 17.6 33.4 39.8 19.4 338.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.1 5.8 13.9 28.0 26.0 32.5 23.9 95.9 17.2 33.9 41.3 20.1 347.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.1 5.7 13.8 28.3 26.1 32.9 23.8 101.8 16.4 34.0 42.4 20.6 354.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.1 5.5 13.7 28.2 25.8 33.0 23.9 106.2 15.3 33.7 42.7 20.7 355.8 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 44.1 11.7 -52.7 71.7 85.2 -76.7 -12.2 -32.2 26.0 -27.2 -16.1 -13.7 1.2 -5.4 -1.4 -3.6 -1.5 -3.8 -1.8 -4.0 -1.7 -4.0 -1.6 -3.8 -1.6 -3.7 -1.8 -4.0 -1.9 -4.3 -1.9 -4.6 16.1 0.8 28.4 -5.3 -87.4 -1.0 -18.8 -20.5 -17.6 2.9 -14.8 27.3 7.4 -1.9 -9.4 -19.7 -2.1 -8.0 -4.9 13.2 8.2 34.8 2.1 1.8 6.0 2.5 -6.6 -6.7 -3.2 5.1 29.8 -4.8 15.1 -9.4 -10.4 29.8 41.7 37.8 -25.5 65.8 -10.8 2.8 1.4 3.2 -1.8 -1.7 1.5 -2.5 -5.4 2.7 -1.3 0.0 -1.6 -2.3 -44.2 -21.4 5.8 -14.9 -11.6 3.4 8.9 -29.6 4.6 -4.4 -6.7 -58.2 -7.4 -13.5 0.5 -6.1 -0.7 1.1 3.8 -6.6 2.1 2.5 -1.4 -0.8 -15.9 -10.7 28.9 -11.6 75.6 -31.8 -12.5 -2.9 -0.9 -0.6 -33.8 26.9 120.7 11.4 13.3 1.5 5.5 12.2 -8.1 -8.9 -3.6 0.9 2.3 3.3 1.3 -0.3 -0.8 -2.1 -4.3 -5.4 -19.9 -4.7 4.3 0.9 -11.6 -15.2 -10.1 -6.5 2.4 -3.9 -9.8 2.9 -3.2 -4.7 0.7 -6.7 -2.7 3.6 4.1 1.7 4.2 -0.8 -1.0 -2.4 0.6 3.5 7.8 -2.4 0.8 4.6 -3.6 1.6 1.8 -0.4 1.6 7.1 -7.6 -0.3 0.2 -0.8 3.3 5.0 5.0 -5.4 1.3 -2.1 6.4 1.4 -1.1 -8.3 -2.5 -7.7 -3.5 -2.9 3.1 -2.6 -2.8 -1.1 -2.6 1.3 -0.2 -3.6 3.1 0.6 2.1 0.3 1.3 -0.2 3.1 -2.3 -0.8 -0.7 -1.9 0.5 -1.5 -6.9 -0.3 -2.4 -1.9 -1.7 1.8 0.7 -3.7 -0.6 -2.2 0.8 -0.2 -1.5 1.9 1.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 5.3 -3.8 -1.0 0.0 2.1 1.7 -2.2 -7.6 0.1 -2.9 -2.2 -2.0 2.4 1.1 -4.3 -0.9 -2.4 1.2 -0.5 -1.5 2.0 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 1.3 5.7 -2.6 -0.9 0.2 2.6 2.0 -2.5 -7.8 -0.9 -3.1 -2.2 -2.3 1.9 1.1 -4.7 -2.1 -2.7 -0.8 -0.6 -1.8 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.7 2.3 0.4 4.9 -1.8 -0.3 0.4 2.9 1.8 -2.7 -8.0 -1.4 -3.3 -2.2 -2.6 0.9 0.1 -4.9 -3.0 -2.9 -1.7 -0.8 -1.7 1.2 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.9 0.2 3.7 -1.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 1.6 -2.7 -8.0 -1.7 -3.3 -2.2 -2.7 -0.3 -0.6 -5.1 -3.1 -3.0 -1.8 -0.8 -1.5 1.2 0.7 1.5 1.3 1.5 0.3 3.2 -0.8 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.4 -2.7 -8.0 -1.7 -3.3 -2.2 -2.7 -1.1 -0.8 -5.1 -3.1 -3.0 -1.8 -0.8 -1.4 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.3 2.4 -0.7 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.1 -2.7 -8.0 -1.7 -3.3 -2.2 -2.7 -1.5 -0.9 -5.2 -3.1 -2.9 -1.8 -0.8 -1.5 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.6 -0.6 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 -2.7 -8.0 -1.9 -3.3 -2.2 -2.7 -1.6 -1.1 -5.5 -3.1 -2.9 -1.8 -0.8 -1.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.2 -0.9 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 -2.8 -9.1 -1.8 -3.3 -2.3 -2.8 -1.8 -1.1 -6.3 -3.2 -3.0 -1.9 -0.7 -1.5 -0.7 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 -1.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 Summary tables - Oldham Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 217.7 134.6 -1.2 217.8 134.4 -1.0 218.1 134.0 -1.0 218.7 134.0 -0.5 219.7 134.1 -0.4 220.5 134.2 -0.3 221.1 134.3 -0.5 221.6 134.2 -0.6 222.2 134.1 -0.7 222.7 134.0 -0.7 223.4 134.1 -0.7 224.0 134.0 -0.7 224.7 134.0 -0.7 227.6 134.4 -0.7 231.0 136.0 -0.7 233.8 138.0 -0.8 77.2 10.7 87.9 82.1 88.7 67.4 -6.6 3.9 2.9 79.8 11.3 91.1 85.1 85.2 64.9 -0.1 4.0 3.0 76.7 10.9 87.7 83.0 84.5 64.5 -1.5 4.3 3.2 75.3 10.7 86.1 81.3 83.6 63.8 -2.2 6.8 5.1 73.9 11.0 84.9 80.3 84.0 64.0 -3.7 6.8 5.1 73.2 10.5 83.7 79.1 83.2 63.4 -4.1 7.6 5.6 72.8 10.4 83.2 78.6 82.9 63.1 -4.2 8.0 6.0 73.2 10.5 83.8 79.2 83.6 63.6 -4.5 7.9 5.9 73.9 10.7 84.5 79.9 84.5 64.4 -4.7 7.5 5.6 74.4 10.7 85.2 80.4 85.4 65.0 -4.9 7.2 5.4 74.9 10.8 85.7 80.9 86.0 65.5 -5.1 6.9 5.2 75.3 10.8 86.1 81.3 86.6 66.0 -5.3 6.5 4.8 75.5 10.8 86.4 81.5 87.0 66.3 -5.5 6.2 4.6 76.0 11.0 87.0 82.0 88.0 66.9 -6.0 6.3 4.7 76.6 11.1 87.7 82.6 89.0 66.8 -6.4 6.5 4.8 77.3 11.3 88.5 83.3 89.9 66.5 -6.6 6.9 5.0 2542 88.8 2567 85.0 2524 85.7 2368 84.7 2411 85.5 2438 85.6 2463 85.4 2524 85.3 2587 85.3 2647 85.2 2702 85.0 2755 84.9 2808 84.8 3027 84.3 3319 83.7 3633 83.1 89 94502 90 92925 90 92639 90 93790 91 93710 92 93771 92 94370 93 94886 93 95378 94 95884 94 96384 95 96947 95 97495 98 99851 101 103209 105 106680 Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 -3.4 -1.2 -3.2 -3.1 -1.1 -0.7 -1.7 21.3 0.5 3.3 6.0 3.7 3.7 -3.9 -2.5 6.4 1.7 0.1 -3.8 -3.6 -3.8 -2.5 -0.8 -0.4 -1.4 7.7 0.2 -1.8 -1.7 -1.8 -2.0 -1.1 -0.7 -0.7 58.7 1.9 -1.9 2.4 -1.3 -1.3 0.5 0.2 -1.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.9 -4.5 -1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 11.5 0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 6.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -1.8 -0.1 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 -0.2 -5.1 -0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 -0.2 -3.8 -0.2 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 -0.2 -3.9 -0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 -0.2 -6.2 -0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -4.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 1.1 0.0 -3.7 -0.7 1.0 -3.8 -1.6 0.7 -6.2 -1.0 1.8 0.8 1.1 0.1 1.0 -0.2 2.5 -0.1 2.5 0.0 2.3 -0.1 2.1 -0.1 2.0 -0.1 1.9 -0.1 1.9 -0.1 1.9 -0.1 1.8 -0.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 -1.7 0.3 -0.3 0.7 1.2 0.9 -0.1 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 * percentagethe changes unless otherwise Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents number of jobs in annoted area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – Oldham (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3 1.2 0.4 1.4 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.0 2.0 1.5 1.8 0.4 1.5 0.1 5.7 5.9 11.1 3.9 3.4 1.3 7.6 3.1 7.6 9.9 3.5 77.2 1.7 1.1 0.5 1.4 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 0.3 1.5 0.1 6.1 6.3 11.2 3.9 3.2 1.1 9.4 3.1 8.0 10.3 3.6 79.8 1.4 0.9 0.3 1.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.8 1.5 1.9 0.3 0.8 0.3 5.4 5.6 11.1 3.8 3.1 0.7 9.5 3.3 7.6 11.0 3.6 76.7 1.3 0.7 0.4 1.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.0 1.9 1.2 1.7 0.8 1.4 0.3 4.7 5.2 11.1 3.8 3.3 1.0 8.5 3.1 7.6 11.1 3.4 75.3 1.3 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.8 1.1 1.5 0.8 1.4 0.3 4.1 5.4 11.2 3.5 3.3 0.9 8.1 3.1 7.7 11.1 3.4 73.9 1.3 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.8 1.1 1.6 0.7 1.4 0.3 3.8 5.4 10.9 3.4 3.2 0.9 8.5 3.0 7.7 10.7 3.6 73.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 1.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.7 1.1 1.5 0.7 1.4 0.3 3.9 5.4 10.9 3.4 3.2 0.9 8.6 2.9 7.5 10.6 3.5 72.8 1.3 0.6 0.4 1.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.7 1.1 1.5 0.7 1.4 0.3 4.0 5.5 11.1 3.4 3.3 0.9 9.0 2.8 7.4 10.6 3.6 73.2 1.2 0.6 0.4 1.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.0 1.7 1.0 1.5 0.7 1.4 0.3 4.1 5.6 11.3 3.5 3.3 0.9 9.5 2.8 7.3 10.6 3.6 73.9 1.2 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.0 1.6 1.0 1.4 0.7 1.4 0.3 4.1 5.7 11.4 3.5 3.4 0.9 9.9 2.7 7.3 10.6 3.7 74.4 1.2 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.0 1.6 1.0 1.4 0.6 1.4 0.3 4.2 5.7 11.5 3.5 3.4 0.9 10.2 2.7 7.2 10.7 3.8 74.9 1.2 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.0 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.6 1.4 0.3 4.2 5.8 11.6 3.6 3.4 0.9 10.5 2.7 7.2 10.8 3.8 75.3 1.1 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.0 1.5 0.9 1.3 0.6 1.4 0.3 4.3 5.8 11.7 3.6 3.5 0.9 10.8 2.8 7.2 10.9 3.9 75.5 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.0 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.5 1.3 0.2 4.4 5.9 11.8 3.6 3.5 0.9 11.4 2.8 7.2 11.3 3.9 76.0 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 1.3 0.2 4.5 6.0 11.8 3.6 3.4 0.9 12.3 2.9 7.3 11.8 4.0 76.6 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.3 1.2 0.2 4.6 6.0 11.8 3.6 3.4 0.9 13.2 3.0 7.4 12.3 4.1 77.3 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 51.7 56.4 2.1 -31.3 17.2 -3.0 -13.7 1.6 26.8 -27.2 -15.6 -13.7 1.8 -5.4 -0.7 -3.6 -0.9 -3.8 -1.2 -4.0 -1.1 -4.0 -1.0 -3.8 -1.0 -3.7 -1.2 -4.0 -1.3 -4.3 -1.3 -4.6 -18.3 -4.5 19.9 -5.0 0.0 -10.3 -6.8 -30.7 6.8 -1.2 -11.1 -63.7 7.8 185.0 22.8 -11.0 -8.5 -5.7 6.6 -14.7 -2.5 -0.5 5.3 -2.3 -11.8 -3.4 -27.7 -5.5 10.9 3.8 0.0 -0.5 -6.9 -18.8 -8.7 16.5 -2.0 -14.7 0.6 15.7 5.7 7.2 0.9 1.1 -5.0 -9.6 22.7 1.3 5.3 4.0 2.4 3.3 -16.1 -15.0 -30.7 -0.1 0.0 -27.2 -10.1 177.2 -1.8 -15.7 8.5 -14.4 -48.4 241.9 -11.4 -10.1 -1.3 -3.6 -3.9 -34.6 1.3 4.9 -4.8 6.5 -0.7 -3.8 -6.7 -20.6 21.1 -11.4 0.0 1.7 11.0 -79.6 9.9 -14.5 -9.0 218.1 71.8 -13.9 -13.2 -8.1 0.7 -0.4 6.0 40.4 -10.3 -6.7 -0.5 1.0 -5.3 -1.8 -0.4 -0.6 -3.9 -5.4 0.0 -3.7 4.3 0.9 -7.2 -15.2 -9.4 -9.1 2.4 -0.6 -11.1 3.3 0.6 -7.2 -1.0 -11.2 -4.5 2.6 1.7 -0.3 1.8 -1.9 -1.0 -2.3 0.9 3.5 0.0 -2.1 0.8 4.6 -2.7 1.6 2.9 -4.6 1.6 6.9 -7.5 0.1 -2.5 -2.5 -0.6 -0.3 4.7 -5.6 -0.2 -3.2 5.1 -0.9 -0.8 -8.0 -2.1 -7.7 0.0 -2.9 3.1 -2.6 -0.8 -1.1 -2.8 -1.5 -0.2 -3.5 1.7 0.9 0.1 -0.7 0.4 -1.4 1.2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.2 -2.8 -0.6 -1.1 -6.5 0.0 -2.4 0.0 -1.7 1.8 0.7 -1.7 -0.6 -2.4 -2.1 -0.2 -1.4 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.6 4.7 -3.1 -1.6 -0.3 1.3 0.6 -1.9 -7.2 0.5 -2.9 0.0 -2.0 2.4 1.1 -2.3 -0.9 -2.6 -1.8 -0.5 -1.4 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.6 0.2 5.3 -1.8 -1.5 0.0 1.9 0.9 -2.1 -7.4 -0.6 -3.1 0.0 -2.3 1.9 1.1 -2.6 -2.1 -2.9 -3.7 -0.6 -1.7 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.4 -0.7 4.5 -0.9 -0.8 0.3 2.3 0.8 -2.3 -7.6 -1.1 -3.3 0.0 -2.6 0.9 0.1 -2.8 -3.0 -3.1 -4.6 -0.8 -1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.1 -0.9 3.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.7 2.1 0.6 -2.3 -7.6 -1.3 -3.3 0.0 -2.6 -0.3 -0.6 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -4.8 -0.8 -1.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 -0.7 2.9 0.2 -0.2 0.8 1.5 0.5 -2.3 -7.6 -1.3 -3.3 0.0 -2.7 -1.1 -0.8 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -4.8 -0.8 -1.3 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 -0.6 2.2 0.3 -0.1 1.0 1.0 0.3 -2.3 -7.6 -1.4 -3.3 0.0 -2.6 -1.5 -0.9 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -5.0 -0.8 -1.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 -2.3 -7.6 -1.5 -3.3 0.0 -2.6 -1.6 -1.1 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -5.3 -0.8 -1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 -2.4 -8.6 -1.5 -3.3 0.0 -2.8 -1.8 -1.1 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -6.1 -0.7 -1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 Summary tables - Rochdale Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 204.3 128.8 -1.5 204.0 128.4 -1.3 204.3 128.0 -0.8 204.7 127.9 -0.7 205.2 127.3 -0.7 205.7 126.8 -0.6 206.2 126.1 -0.7 206.5 125.5 -0.8 206.8 124.8 -0.8 207.1 124.2 -0.9 207.5 123.8 -0.8 207.9 123.4 -0.8 208.3 123.1 -0.8 210.3 123.1 -0.7 213.2 125.5 -0.6 215.5 128.7 -0.8 77.2 11.5 88.7 80.5 85.1 67.6 -4.6 4.0 3.1 79.2 12.0 91.1 82.8 84.4 67.3 -1.6 3.8 2.9 74.1 11.1 85.2 78.9 82.6 66.0 -3.7 4.2 3.3 74.1 12.2 86.2 79.8 80.7 64.5 -0.9 7.3 5.7 72.8 12.5 85.3 79.0 78.7 63.2 0.3 7.0 5.5 71.8 11.9 83.7 77.4 77.6 62.5 -0.1 7.8 6.1 71.3 11.7 83.1 76.9 77.2 62.5 -0.3 8.2 6.5 71.7 11.9 83.6 77.3 77.8 63.4 -0.5 7.9 6.3 72.3 12.0 84.3 78.0 78.7 64.4 -0.7 7.4 5.9 72.8 12.1 85.0 78.6 79.5 65.3 -0.9 7.0 5.6 73.3 12.2 85.5 79.0 80.2 66.1 -1.1 6.6 5.4 73.7 12.2 85.9 79.4 80.7 66.7 -1.3 6.1 5.0 73.9 12.2 86.1 79.6 81.1 67.2 -1.5 5.8 4.7 74.2 12.4 86.6 79.9 81.9 67.9 -2.0 5.5 4.4 74.7 12.5 87.2 80.4 82.8 67.3 -2.4 5.3 4.2 75.3 12.7 88.0 81.0 83.7 66.4 -2.7 5.1 4.0 2789 96.6 2850 94.4 2734 95.6 2637 94.2 2687 94.9 2710 95.2 2737 95.0 2807 95.1 2879 95.1 2947 95.1 3012 95.0 3073 94.9 3134 94.9 3388 94.7 3733 94.6 4107 94.5 85 89429 85 89669 85 90056 86 88850 87 88880 87 89093 87 89595 88 90044 88 90478 89 90932 89 91412 90 91937 90 92427 92 94405 95 97231 98 100153 Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 -1.2 1.6 1.7 -0.7 -0.4 1.9 19.0 0.5 2.5 4.3 2.7 3.0 -0.8 -0.3 3.1 -6.0 -0.2 -6.4 -7.2 -6.5 -4.8 -2.2 -1.3 -2.1 12.1 0.4 0.0 9.6 1.2 1.2 -2.3 -1.5 2.8 71.4 2.4 -1.6 2.4 -1.1 -1.0 -2.5 -1.4 1.2 -3.0 -0.1 -1.4 -4.7 -1.9 -2.0 -1.4 -0.6 -0.5 10.1 0.6 -0.7 -1.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 -0.2 5.6 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 -0.2 -3.4 -0.2 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 -0.2 -6.6 -0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 -0.2 -5.3 -0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 -0.2 -5.4 -0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 -0.2 -7.6 -0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 -0.2 -5.7 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -2.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 1.4 -0.5 2.2 -2.2 -4.0 1.2 -3.6 -1.4 1.9 0.7 0.8 0.3 1.0 -0.1 2.6 0.1 2.6 0.0 2.4 0.0 2.2 -0.1 2.0 -0.1 2.0 -0.1 2.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 -1.3 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 * percentage changes unless otherwise noted Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – Rochdale (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.3 0.2 1.0 0.0 1.8 1.3 0.1 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.1 5.9 8.4 5.1 7.0 1.0 9.9 2.7 6.7 9.5 3.0 77.2 0.7 2.1 0.3 0.9 0.0 1.7 1.5 0.1 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 5.2 6.5 8.3 4.7 6.5 1.0 11.6 3.4 6.5 8.8 3.4 79.2 0.8 1.7 0.2 0.7 0.0 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.8 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.1 4.2 5.8 7.8 4.0 7.2 1.0 9.8 4.3 5.5 9.0 3.1 74.1 0.9 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.4 1.3 0.1 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 5.7 5.1 7.7 3.7 6.9 1.0 8.3 6.3 5.7 9.4 3.2 74.1 0.9 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.2 1.4 0.1 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 5.2 5.3 7.7 3.4 6.8 0.9 8.2 6.4 5.8 9.3 3.2 72.8 0.9 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.1 1.4 0.1 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 4.8 5.3 7.5 3.3 6.7 0.9 8.6 6.0 5.8 8.9 3.4 71.8 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.1 1.5 0.1 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 4.9 5.3 7.6 3.3 6.7 0.9 8.7 5.9 5.7 8.8 3.3 71.3 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.1 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 5.0 5.4 7.6 3.4 6.9 0.9 9.1 5.6 5.6 8.7 3.3 71.7 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.1 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 5.1 5.5 7.8 3.4 7.0 0.9 9.6 5.5 5.5 8.6 3.4 72.3 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.1 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 5.2 5.5 7.8 3.5 7.1 0.9 10.0 5.4 5.4 8.6 3.4 72.8 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.1 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 5.2 5.6 7.9 3.5 7.2 0.9 10.4 5.4 5.4 8.6 3.5 73.3 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.1 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 5.3 5.7 8.0 3.5 7.3 0.9 10.7 5.3 5.4 8.6 3.6 73.7 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.1 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 5.3 5.7 8.0 3.5 7.4 0.9 10.9 5.3 5.4 8.6 3.6 73.9 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.1 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 5.4 5.7 8.0 3.6 7.5 0.8 11.6 5.3 5.4 8.7 3.6 74.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.1 5.6 5.7 8.1 3.6 7.6 0.8 12.5 5.3 5.4 8.9 3.7 74.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.1 5.7 5.7 8.1 3.7 7.8 0.8 13.5 5.2 5.5 9.0 3.7 75.3 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 112.7 -58.3 -9.3 106.0 -0.1 -100.0 -12.0 0.0 26.0 0.0 -16.1 0.0 1.2 0.0 -1.4 0.0 -1.5 0.0 -1.8 0.0 -1.7 0.0 -1.6 0.0 -1.6 0.0 -1.8 0.0 -1.9 0.0 -1.9 0.0 25.6 -2.7 28.1 19.0 0.0 1.8 -12.6 1.0 20.4 9.6 6.7 -27.7 35.1 63.8 -4.6 -1.7 5.5 0.5 18.1 20.4 -2.6 -6.6 3.8 -2.2 -4.6 2.1 10.8 -11.0 36.5 -9.8 0.0 -6.1 11.5 1.8 -3.2 33.6 -7.3 38.3 10.9 83.0 1.8 10.0 -1.1 -7.8 -6.5 -4.5 17.0 25.3 -3.1 -7.7 13.8 2.5 9.5 -16.0 -16.9 -14.4 0.0 -8.9 11.4 -22.7 -7.5 14.8 -41.7 -52.6 -13.7 -7.4 -17.9 -11.0 -5.1 -15.3 10.6 2.7 -15.6 24.1 -14.9 2.3 -8.6 -6.4 15.7 -8.8 55.2 -15.2 0.0 -5.7 -18.5 -8.9 2.3 -48.2 -35.8 141.3 57.2 -17.5 33.4 -11.6 -1.7 -8.7 -4.0 0.2 -15.1 47.3 3.2 4.5 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.0 -4.3 -5.4 0.0 -17.7 4.9 0.9 -8.3 -14.2 -7.4 -6.9 3.3 0.7 -7.9 3.1 0.4 -7.1 -2.1 -11.0 -1.0 1.7 1.5 -1.1 1.4 -1.6 -0.6 -0.3 0.6 3.5 0.0 -8.1 1.4 4.6 -2.3 2.8 4.7 1.6 2.5 6.8 -7.2 -0.1 -2.6 -2.3 -1.3 0.1 5.1 -6.3 -0.3 -3.9 4.6 -1.4 -0.4 -6.6 -2.5 -7.7 0.0 -3.0 3.7 -2.6 -0.9 0.0 -0.4 0.9 0.7 -3.5 1.2 0.8 0.0 -0.5 0.7 -1.6 0.8 -2.5 -1.7 -1.8 -3.0 -0.7 -0.7 -5.1 -0.3 -2.4 0.0 -1.9 2.3 0.7 -1.7 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.6 -1.4 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 0.5 4.7 -3.8 -1.7 -1.0 1.1 0.5 -1.5 -6.9 0.1 -2.9 0.0 -2.2 2.9 1.1 -2.4 0.2 -0.3 0.8 0.3 -1.4 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 0.1 5.3 -2.5 -1.6 -0.7 1.7 0.8 -1.8 -7.1 -0.9 -3.1 0.0 -2.5 2.4 1.1 -2.7 -1.0 -0.7 -1.2 0.2 -1.7 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.9 -0.8 4.6 -1.6 -0.9 -0.4 2.1 0.8 -2.0 -7.3 -1.4 -3.3 0.0 -2.8 1.4 0.1 -2.9 -1.9 -0.9 -2.1 0.0 -1.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.6 -0.9 3.4 -0.8 -0.5 0.0 2.0 0.6 -2.0 -7.3 -1.7 -3.3 0.0 -2.9 0.2 -0.6 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 -2.2 0.0 -1.4 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.2 -0.7 3.0 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 1.4 0.5 -2.0 -7.3 -1.7 -3.3 0.0 -2.9 -0.6 -0.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.0 -2.2 0.0 -1.3 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 -0.6 2.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.8 0.3 -2.0 -7.3 -1.7 -3.3 0.0 -2.9 -1.0 -0.9 -3.0 -2.1 -1.1 -2.2 0.0 -1.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 -0.6 1.7 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 -2.0 -7.4 -1.9 -3.3 0.0 -2.8 -1.1 -1.1 -3.0 -2.1 -1.2 -2.3 -0.1 -1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.5 1.5 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 -2.1 -8.3 -1.8 -3.3 0.0 -3.0 -1.3 -1.1 -3.3 -2.2 -1.3 -2.3 0.1 -1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.1 1.5 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Summary tables - Salford Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 220.8 144.0 0.9 221.3 144.6 -0.2 223.0 145.6 0.8 225.0 147.3 1.1 229.0 150.5 2.6 231.7 152.7 1.5 233.8 154.1 0.8 236.0 155.3 0.6 238.0 156.2 0.4 239.7 156.8 0.2 241.6 157.4 0.2 243.4 158.0 0.1 245.3 158.6 0.1 253.0 161.0 0.0 261.4 163.8 -0.3 267.5 164.5 -0.8 115.4 10.1 125.5 108.8 103.7 73.6 5.2 4.0 2.8 116.5 10.5 127.0 110.2 104.3 73.7 5.9 4.0 2.8 117.4 11.2 128.6 113.3 102.4 71.8 10.9 4.2 2.9 114.6 11.4 126.0 111.9 99.4 68.9 12.5 7.2 4.9 112.1 11.7 123.9 109.9 99.5 67.4 10.4 7.4 4.9 112.2 11.3 123.5 109.4 99.4 66.4 10.0 7.9 5.2 112.4 11.2 123.6 109.5 99.5 65.8 10.0 8.5 5.5 114.2 11.4 125.6 111.3 100.9 66.2 10.4 8.4 5.4 116.6 11.6 128.3 113.6 102.7 66.9 11.0 8.1 5.2 118.9 11.8 130.7 115.7 104.2 67.7 11.5 7.9 5.0 120.8 11.9 132.7 117.5 105.5 68.3 11.9 7.6 4.8 122.5 12.0 134.5 119.1 106.7 68.8 12.3 7.2 4.6 123.9 12.1 136.0 120.3 107.7 69.1 12.7 7.0 4.4 127.6 12.5 140.2 123.9 110.2 69.7 13.8 7.2 4.5 131.8 13.0 144.8 127.8 112.6 70.2 15.2 7.7 4.7 135.4 13.4 148.9 131.3 114.6 71.2 16.7 8.2 5.0 4077 99.9 4264 101.3 4391 101.6 4153 101.5 4156 101.0 4222 100.5 4299 100.3 4452 100.3 4607 100.1 4766 100.0 4918 99.9 5066 99.9 5215 100.0 5800 100.2 6564 100.2 7364 100.1 97 101789 97 101591 98 104325 99 106500 101 106970 102 107151 103 108059 104 108781 105 109636 105 110557 106 111357 107 112232 108 113117 112 117092 118 123072 123 129344 Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 0.6 1.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 -1.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.3 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.2 1.4 -1.1 0.9 0.9 -0.8 0.9 0.8 -0.2 0.9 0.6 -0.2 0.7 0.4 -0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.3 -0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.8 -3.0 0.5 0.7 4.0 1.9 -3.3 15.7 0.3 0.9 4.5 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.9 6.1 1.3 2.8 -1.8 -1.8 5.0 6.1 0.1 -2.4 1.6 -2.1 -1.3 -3.0 -3.0 1.6 70.8 2.0 -2.2 3.3 -1.7 -1.8 0.1 -1.5 -2.1 2.4 0.0 0.1 -4.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -1.0 -0.4 6.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.6 0.0 7.4 0.3 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.4 -0.8 -0.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.6 -3.8 -0.2 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.5 -2.6 -0.2 1.6 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.4 -2.9 -0.2 1.4 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.4 -5.2 -0.3 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.3 -3.4 -0.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 1.5 0.1 1.8 0.9 4.6 1.5 3.0 0.3 -5.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 1.6 -0.5 1.8 -0.2 3.5 0.0 3.5 -0.2 3.4 -0.1 3.2 0.0 3.0 0.0 2.9 0.1 2.7 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.9 -0.2 0.7 -0.2 0.9 2.7 1.2 2.1 1.8 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 * percentage changes unless otherwise noted Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – Salford (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.0 2.0 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.1 0.5 0.1 6.3 10.1 7.3 6.6 5.8 5.9 24.2 7.9 12.2 15.2 4.1 115.4 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 1.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 6.8 10.4 7.2 5.9 5.7 6.0 25.0 7.7 11.9 15.8 4.2 116.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.0 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 7.5 9.0 7.3 6.4 5.6 6.9 27.7 6.6 11.2 16.4 3.8 117.4 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.7 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.7 0.2 6.7 9.0 7.8 6.7 4.7 5.9 29.0 6.5 10.3 15.1 4.2 114.6 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.2 6.0 9.2 8.0 6.3 4.8 5.3 27.6 6.7 10.5 15.2 4.3 112.1 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.2 5.5 9.2 7.9 6.2 5.0 5.5 28.5 6.4 10.6 14.8 4.6 112.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.3 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.2 5.7 9.3 7.9 6.2 5.1 5.5 29.0 6.3 10.4 14.7 4.5 112.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.2 5.8 9.4 8.1 6.3 5.2 5.6 30.3 6.1 10.3 14.7 4.6 114.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.2 6.0 9.5 8.3 6.4 5.3 5.7 32.0 6.0 10.1 14.7 4.8 116.6 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.2 6.2 9.6 8.4 6.5 5.4 5.8 33.6 5.9 10.1 14.8 4.9 118.9 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.2 6.3 9.7 8.5 6.6 5.5 5.8 34.8 5.9 10.1 14.9 5.1 120.8 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.2 6.5 9.8 8.6 6.7 5.6 5.9 35.9 5.9 10.0 15.1 5.2 122.5 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.2 6.6 9.8 8.7 6.7 5.7 5.9 36.7 5.9 10.0 15.3 5.3 123.9 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.2 6.9 9.8 9.0 6.9 5.8 6.1 38.8 6.0 10.1 16.1 5.6 127.6 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.2 7.3 9.8 9.1 7.0 5.9 6.3 41.3 6.1 10.2 16.9 5.9 131.8 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.7 0.2 7.6 9.7 9.3 7.0 6.0 6.6 43.6 6.1 10.2 17.7 6.2 135.4 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa -59.1 -100.0 13.0 0.0 81.9 -33.6 -14.3 72.0 26.0 -93.9 -16.1 -13.7 1.2 -5.4 -1.4 -3.6 -1.5 -3.8 -1.8 -4.0 -1.7 -4.0 -1.6 -3.8 -1.6 -3.7 -1.8 -4.0 -1.9 -4.3 -1.9 -4.6 9.9 5.3 0.7 -3.3 13.2 -6.2 9.1 16.7 6.0 -3.6 -15.8 -64.2 -1.2 36.1 9.0 -5.3 4.5 6.0 -3.1 35.1 4.0 -19.9 6.2 4.2 -17.1 0.8 7.5 2.8 2.9 55.6 -98.2 -7.5 -3.6 15.0 -18.1 15.4 -11.2 19.3 3.2 -16.5 8.7 3.5 -2.7 -9.8 -2.4 1.4 3.3 -3.1 -2.4 4.0 2.1 0.9 3.3 4.2 -51.8 -25.1 -1.2 -22.8 -3.5 6.9 -12.2 -7.1 -7.7 -35.1 7.9 163.2 9.2 -13.8 1.6 7.5 -0.5 16.1 10.7 -13.2 -6.5 3.9 -8.6 0.9 -9.2 -34.3 59.8 -11.1 -100.0 22.0 -28.0 -33.6 23.1 -23.2 -8.2 3.9 42.4 -24.5 -10.2 -0.2 8.0 4.9 -16.3 -15.1 4.7 -1.9 -8.0 -8.1 8.8 -2.4 -0.4 -4.1 -4.3 -5.4 0.0 -14.5 4.3 1.8 -8.6 -15.2 -9.8 -10.5 2.4 -5.1 -10.8 2.9 1.9 -6.0 2.4 -10.6 -5.0 3.3 2.7 0.7 3.5 -2.2 -1.0 -3.1 0.6 3.5 0.0 -6.2 0.8 5.6 -2.3 1.6 1.9 -4.5 1.6 6.9 -7.8 -0.3 -1.7 -1.7 3.5 4.2 3.6 -5.4 0.2 -2.7 6.4 0.1 -0.8 -9.4 -2.5 -7.7 0.0 -2.2 3.1 -1.7 -0.9 -1.1 -2.1 -3.3 -0.2 -3.9 2.8 0.6 0.8 -0.1 1.2 0.0 1.5 -1.8 -1.4 -0.8 -1.7 0.1 -1.1 -7.9 -0.3 -2.4 0.0 -1.1 1.8 1.6 -1.8 -0.6 -1.7 -3.9 -0.2 -1.9 2.6 1.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.3 4.7 -3.1 -1.3 0.1 2.5 1.7 -1.9 -8.6 0.1 -2.9 0.0 -1.5 2.4 2.0 -2.4 -0.9 -1.9 -3.8 -0.5 -1.9 3.1 1.5 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.0 5.5 -1.8 -1.2 0.4 3.0 2.1 -2.1 -8.8 -0.9 -3.1 0.0 -1.8 1.9 1.9 -2.7 -2.1 -2.2 -5.8 -0.6 -2.1 2.7 1.0 1.6 1.4 2.4 1.0 4.9 -1.0 -0.7 0.6 3.3 1.9 -2.3 -9.0 -1.4 -3.3 0.0 -2.0 0.9 0.9 -2.9 -3.0 -2.4 -6.9 -0.8 -2.0 2.4 0.8 1.4 1.3 2.0 0.7 3.7 -0.3 -0.3 0.9 3.1 1.6 -2.3 -9.0 -1.7 -3.3 0.0 -2.1 -0.3 0.3 -3.0 -3.1 -2.4 -7.3 -0.8 -1.8 2.3 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.5 0.8 3.1 0.0 -0.1 1.0 2.5 1.4 -2.3 -9.0 -1.7 -3.3 0.0 -2.1 -1.1 0.0 -3.0 -3.1 -2.4 -7.5 -0.8 -1.8 1.7 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 1.2 2.0 1.1 -2.3 -9.1 -1.7 -3.3 0.0 -2.1 -1.5 -0.1 -3.0 -3.1 -2.4 -8.2 -0.8 -1.8 1.3 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.8 -2.3 -9.1 -1.9 -3.3 0.0 -2.1 -1.6 -0.3 -3.0 -3.1 -2.4 -10.5 -0.8 -1.8 1.1 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 -2.4 -10.7 -1.8 -3.3 0.0 -2.3 -1.8 -0.4 -3.3 -3.2 -2.4 -19.5 -0.7 -1.8 0.9 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.6 Summary tables – Stockport Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 281.7 175.8 -1.1 282.0 175.3 -0.4 282.5 175.0 -0.2 283.6 175.3 0.4 284.7 175.2 0.3 285.8 175.3 0.3 286.7 175.2 0.2 287.6 175.2 0.2 288.4 175.0 0.1 289.1 174.8 0.0 289.7 174.6 0.0 290.3 174.4 0.0 290.8 174.2 0.0 293.2 173.4 0.1 296.1 172.9 0.2 298.7 172.8 0.1 123.2 20.3 143.5 127.1 136.0 79.0 -8.9 2.8 1.6 124.4 20.5 144.9 128.5 134.2 78.2 -5.6 2.9 1.6 126.2 23.2 149.4 135.2 131.7 76.9 3.4 3.4 1.9 122.7 20.2 142.9 128.9 129.0 75.1 -0.1 6.2 3.5 118.5 20.6 139.2 125.5 128.2 74.7 -2.8 6.0 3.4 117.9 19.7 137.6 124.0 127.3 74.1 -3.3 6.1 3.5 117.1 19.5 136.6 123.1 126.6 73.6 -3.5 6.4 3.7 118.1 19.7 137.9 124.3 127.9 74.4 -3.7 6.4 3.6 119.6 20.0 139.6 125.9 129.7 75.5 -3.9 6.1 3.5 121.0 20.2 141.2 127.3 131.3 76.5 -4.0 5.9 3.4 122.0 20.3 142.3 128.3 132.5 77.2 -4.2 5.7 3.2 122.8 20.4 143.3 129.1 133.4 77.8 -4.3 5.3 3.1 123.4 20.5 143.9 129.6 134.0 78.2 -4.4 5.1 2.9 124.1 20.9 145.0 130.5 134.8 79.0 -4.2 5.2 3.0 124.9 21.4 146.3 131.6 135.1 79.4 -3.5 5.4 3.1 126.0 21.9 147.9 132.9 135.2 79.4 -2.3 5.7 3.3 4650 99.6 4837 100.8 5054 100.7 5011 108.0 4941 106.9 4984 106.5 5037 106.3 5169 106.1 5307 105.9 5445 105.7 5575 105.6 5698 105.5 5822 105.5 6319 105.5 6984 105.5 7708 105.5 122 124106 123 124746 123 125049 124 126920 125 127120 127 127147 128 128325 129 129376 130 130413 130 131405 131 132347 132 133278 133 134176 137 137984 142 143018 147 148092 Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.7 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.3 10.6 5.1 5.5 -0.7 -0.6 7.6 15.2 0.2 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 -1.3 -0.9 3.2 3.3 0.1 1.4 13.4 3.1 5.2 -1.8 -1.3 9.1 16.2 0.3 -2.8 -12.8 -4.3 -4.6 -2.1 -1.7 -3.5 84.8 1.6 -3.4 1.8 -2.6 -2.7 -0.6 -0.4 -2.7 -3.4 -0.1 -0.5 -4.6 -1.1 -1.2 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 1.4 0.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 6.1 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 -0.2 -1.4 -0.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 -0.2 -4.4 -0.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 -0.2 -3.3 -0.1 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 -0.2 -3.5 -0.1 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 -0.1 -5.8 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.1 -4.0 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.0 6.6 1.1 4.0 1.2 4.5 -0.1 -0.8 7.2 -1.4 -1.0 0.9 -0.5 1.1 -0.1 2.6 -0.2 2.7 -0.3 2.6 -0.1 2.4 -0.1 2.2 -0.1 2.2 0.0 2.1 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 * percentage changes unless otherwise noted Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – Stockport (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 2.5 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 1.3 1.5 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 9.0 10.1 13.9 6.6 5.7 5.6 23.3 5.3 9.6 14.1 6.2 123.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 2.6 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.2 1.4 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 9.0 10.4 13.7 6.5 5.4 4.5 24.2 6.9 8.8 15.4 5.5 124.4 1.8 0.3 0.1 2.6 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.1 1.3 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 12.6 9.2 13.6 5.5 6.7 5.2 23.2 5.6 9.5 15.4 6.1 126.2 1.7 0.5 0.2 2.4 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 1.1 2.2 1.3 0.6 3.4 6.6 8.2 13.0 5.6 4.5 5.3 24.9 6.9 9.1 15.7 6.8 122.7 1.7 0.5 0.2 2.2 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 0.9 2.0 1.2 0.6 3.2 5.8 8.5 13.1 5.2 4.5 4.8 23.0 7.1 9.2 15.6 6.9 118.5 1.7 0.5 0.2 2.3 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 0.9 2.1 1.1 0.6 3.4 5.3 8.5 12.7 5.1 4.5 4.9 23.6 6.7 9.2 15.0 7.2 117.9 1.7 0.4 0.2 2.2 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 0.9 2.0 1.1 0.6 3.3 5.5 8.5 12.8 5.0 4.5 4.8 23.8 6.5 9.0 14.7 7.0 117.1 1.7 0.4 0.2 2.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 0.9 2.0 1.1 0.6 3.2 5.7 8.7 12.9 5.1 4.6 4.9 24.7 6.3 8.9 14.6 7.1 118.1 1.6 0.4 0.2 2.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 0.9 2.0 1.2 0.6 3.2 5.9 8.8 13.1 5.2 4.7 4.9 25.9 6.2 8.7 14.5 7.3 119.6 1.6 0.3 0.2 2.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 0.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 3.1 6.1 8.9 13.3 5.2 4.8 4.9 27.0 6.1 8.6 14.5 7.4 121.0 1.6 0.3 0.2 1.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 0.8 1.9 1.1 0.6 3.1 6.3 9.0 13.4 5.3 4.8 4.9 27.8 6.1 8.6 14.5 7.6 122.0 1.5 0.3 0.2 1.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.6 3.0 6.5 9.1 13.5 5.3 4.9 4.9 28.5 6.1 8.5 14.5 7.7 122.8 1.5 0.3 0.2 1.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.6 3.0 6.6 9.1 13.6 5.3 4.9 4.9 29.0 6.1 8.5 14.5 7.7 123.4 1.3 0.2 0.1 1.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.8 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.6 2.8 7.1 9.2 13.6 5.3 4.9 5.0 30.0 6.1 8.4 14.7 7.8 124.1 1.2 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.5 2.6 7.7 9.2 13.6 5.3 4.9 5.0 31.3 6.1 8.3 14.9 7.9 124.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 2.4 8.4 9.3 13.6 5.2 4.9 5.1 32.7 6.2 8.2 15.1 8.0 126.0 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 88.9 48.0 15.7 1.3 -13.0 -36.9 -14.5 14.7 26.0 -27.2 -16.1 -13.7 1.2 -5.4 -1.4 -3.6 -1.5 -3.8 -1.8 -4.0 -1.7 -4.0 -1.6 -3.8 -1.6 -3.7 -1.8 -4.0 -1.9 -4.3 -1.9 -4.6 -6.3 29.5 4.1 16.1 -41.0 -29.0 -0.2 -11.9 7.1 0.2 -10.1 -24.6 24.7 119.1 70.0 4.4 2.7 -4.6 1.9 -11.2 26.7 -9.2 -3.7 -9.9 -14.7 4.3 -1.5 -11.1 36.8 2.8 57.6 25.0 -13.1 -42.2 -4.4 -6.9 2.3 36.9 -2.0 59.7 -0.1 3.5 -1.5 -1.8 -4.3 -19.1 3.8 28.8 -8.6 9.3 -10.3 1.0 6.4 -47.7 -55.3 -0.8 8.4 44.6 9.3 9.7 -11.5 -11.6 -5.4 -1.4 -1.2 84.3 39.2 -11.6 -0.5 -14.3 23.9 14.1 -3.9 -18.8 7.4 -0.4 10.3 1.4 -2.9 60.6 71.4 -7.3 4.9 -33.3 -45.5 -27.5 11.8 -16.8 2.9 -4.9 0.4 1476.0 -47.7 -10.8 -4.8 1.5 -32.8 2.7 7.1 24.3 -3.8 2.3 11.7 -2.8 -0.5 -1.1 -4.3 -5.1 -19.9 -18.5 4.3 -1.3 -8.4 -15.2 -9.4 -7.2 2.4 -7.1 -12.2 3.1 0.6 -7.2 -1.2 -10.4 -7.7 2.2 1.4 -1.0 1.5 -3.4 -0.8 -2.6 0.6 3.8 7.8 -8.6 0.8 2.4 -2.5 1.6 3.7 -2.3 1.6 7.5 -7.4 -0.1 -2.5 -2.5 1.1 2.1 2.7 -5.9 -0.5 -3.8 4.7 -0.5 -0.9 -8.3 -2.5 -7.5 -3.5 -3.0 3.1 -4.7 -1.0 -1.1 -2.2 0.6 -0.2 -3.5 3.3 0.8 0.2 -0.7 0.4 -0.9 0.8 -2.1 -1.9 -1.7 -2.9 -0.7 -1.2 -6.8 -0.3 -2.2 -1.9 -1.9 1.8 -1.6 -1.9 -0.6 -1.8 0.1 -0.2 -1.5 3.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 4.0 -3.3 -1.8 -0.8 1.3 0.9 -2.0 -7.5 0.1 -2.6 -2.2 -2.3 2.4 -1.2 -2.5 -0.9 -2.0 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 3.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.1 4.8 -2.0 -1.7 -0.6 1.9 1.3 -2.2 -7.7 -0.9 -2.8 -2.2 -2.5 1.9 -1.4 -2.8 -2.1 -2.3 -1.5 -0.6 -1.7 3.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.7 0.2 4.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 2.2 1.1 -2.4 -7.9 -1.4 -3.0 -2.2 -2.8 0.9 -2.4 -3.1 -3.0 -2.4 -2.4 -0.8 -1.7 2.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.4 -0.1 3.0 -0.5 -0.7 0.0 2.0 0.8 -2.4 -7.9 -1.7 -3.0 -2.2 -2.9 -0.3 -3.1 -3.2 -3.1 -2.5 -2.5 -0.8 -1.5 2.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.0 2.4 -0.2 -0.6 0.1 1.4 0.7 -2.4 -7.9 -1.7 -3.0 -2.2 -2.9 -1.1 -3.3 -3.2 -3.1 -2.5 -2.5 -0.8 -1.4 2.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.7 -0.1 -0.5 0.3 0.8 0.4 -2.4 -7.9 -1.7 -3.0 -2.2 -2.9 -1.5 -3.6 -3.2 -3.1 -2.5 -2.5 -0.8 -1.4 1.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 -2.4 -7.9 -1.9 -3.0 -2.2 -2.9 -1.6 -4.2 -3.2 -3.1 -2.5 -2.5 -0.8 -1.5 1.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -2.5 -9.0 -1.8 -3.1 -2.3 -3.0 -1.8 -4.9 -3.5 -3.2 -2.5 -2.6 -0.7 -1.5 1.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Summary tables - Tameside Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 213.2 135.7 -0.3 213.2 135.6 -0.4 214.4 135.8 0.4 215.3 136.0 0.2 216.8 136.5 0.4 218.1 136.6 0.3 219.2 136.6 0.2 220.3 136.5 0.1 221.3 136.4 0.0 222.4 136.4 0.0 223.5 136.4 0.0 224.7 136.5 0.1 225.9 136.6 0.1 230.5 136.6 0.0 235.2 136.5 0.0 238.8 136.7 -0.1 72.4 11.4 83.7 78.6 96.1 72.4 -17.4 3.2 2.4 71.5 11.5 83.0 77.9 96.2 72.6 -18.3 3.3 2.4 67.6 11.7 79.3 76.1 96.4 72.6 -20.4 3.7 2.7 69.5 11.5 81.0 77.0 93.8 70.5 -16.8 6.6 4.8 68.9 12.0 80.9 76.8 93.4 69.9 -16.6 6.4 4.7 68.4 11.5 79.9 75.9 92.7 69.3 -16.8 6.8 5.0 67.8 11.4 79.3 75.3 92.2 68.8 -16.9 7.2 5.3 68.0 11.5 79.5 75.5 92.8 69.3 -17.2 7.1 5.2 68.4 11.6 80.0 76.0 93.6 69.8 -17.6 6.7 4.9 68.7 11.7 80.4 76.3 94.3 70.3 -17.9 6.4 4.7 68.9 11.7 80.6 76.5 94.7 70.6 -18.2 6.2 4.5 69.1 11.7 80.8 76.7 95.1 70.8 -18.5 5.8 4.2 69.1 11.7 80.8 76.7 95.4 71.0 -18.7 5.5 4.0 68.8 11.7 80.5 76.3 95.4 71.0 -19.1 5.5 4.0 68.1 11.7 79.8 75.5 94.9 70.7 -19.3 5.6 4.1 67.4 11.6 79.0 74.8 94.1 70.1 -19.3 5.8 4.2 2743 100.7 2722 99.0 2612 98.1 2620 99.5 2685 99.9 2714 99.8 2738 99.6 2798 99.6 2860 99.6 2919 99.5 2974 99.4 3025 99.3 3076 99.2 3284 98.7 3549 98.3 3823 97.9 93 96912 93 97210 94 97885 94 97730 95 97980 96 98337 97 99339 98 100350 99 101340 100 102325 101 103342 102 104324 103 105316 107 109016 111 113339 115 117536 Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -4.8 -1.9 -2.1 -0.5 -0.7 -1.2 13.1 0.3 -1.2 1.1 -0.9 -0.9 0.1 0.2 -0.8 1.8 0.0 -5.4 1.7 -4.4 -2.4 0.2 0.1 -2.1 13.9 0.3 2.9 -1.7 2.2 1.2 -2.8 -2.2 3.6 77.0 2.1 -0.9 4.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 0.3 -2.8 -0.2 -0.8 -3.9 -1.3 -1.3 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 7.1 0.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 6.1 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 -0.3 -2.1 -0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 -0.4 -5.3 -0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 -0.3 -4.1 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 -0.3 -4.2 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -6.4 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -4.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.1 1.7 -0.8 -1.6 -4.1 -1.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 0.4 1.1 -0.1 0.9 -0.2 2.2 -0.1 2.2 0.0 2.1 0.0 1.9 -0.1 1.7 -0.1 1.7 -0.1 1.7 -0.1 1.6 -0.1 1.5 -0.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 -0.2 1.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number ofunless jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) * percentage changes otherwise noted represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – Tameside (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9 1.7 0.3 1.2 0.0 1.3 1.6 0.6 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.5 1.6 0.3 3.8 5.4 9.2 4.0 2.4 1.0 7.4 3.6 6.4 9.4 3.4 72.4 2.3 1.7 0.3 1.1 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.4 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.4 1.7 0.4 3.9 6.1 8.6 3.9 2.2 0.8 7.1 3.8 7.1 9.1 3.4 71.5 2.3 0.9 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.4 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 1.6 0.1 4.2 5.7 8.7 3.0 2.6 0.8 6.6 3.4 6.7 8.9 3.7 67.6 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.4 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.9 2.0 0.7 3.3 5.2 8.7 3.3 2.4 0.8 6.8 4.9 6.2 9.8 3.8 69.5 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.4 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.8 2.1 0.7 3.0 5.3 8.8 3.1 2.4 0.7 6.7 5.0 6.3 9.7 3.9 68.9 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.4 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 2.1 0.8 2.8 5.3 8.6 3.0 2.5 0.7 7.0 4.7 6.3 9.4 4.1 68.4 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.4 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.8 2.1 0.7 2.9 5.4 8.6 3.0 2.5 0.7 7.1 4.6 6.2 9.2 4.0 67.8 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.4 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.8 2.1 0.7 2.9 5.5 8.7 3.0 2.5 0.7 7.3 4.5 6.1 9.2 4.0 68.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.4 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.8 2.1 0.7 3.0 5.6 8.9 3.1 2.5 0.7 7.6 4.4 6.0 9.1 4.1 68.4 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.4 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.8 2.1 0.7 3.0 5.6 9.0 3.1 2.6 0.7 7.9 4.3 6.0 9.1 4.2 68.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.4 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.8 2.0 0.7 3.1 5.7 9.1 3.1 2.6 0.7 8.1 4.3 6.0 9.1 4.3 68.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.4 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 2.0 0.7 3.1 5.7 9.2 3.2 2.6 0.6 8.2 4.3 5.9 9.2 4.4 69.1 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.4 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 2.0 0.7 3.1 5.8 9.3 3.2 2.6 0.6 8.3 4.3 5.9 9.2 4.4 69.1 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.4 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.7 1.9 0.6 3.2 5.8 9.5 3.2 2.6 0.6 8.4 4.3 5.9 9.5 4.5 68.8 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.9 0.6 3.2 5.8 9.5 3.2 2.6 0.6 8.6 4.3 5.9 9.7 4.6 68.1 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.8 0.5 3.2 5.8 9.6 3.2 2.5 0.5 8.8 4.3 5.9 9.9 4.7 67.4 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 91.7 317.2 8.2 -100.0 16.2 0.0 -9.7 1.6 26.0 -11.6 -16.1 -8.1 1.2 -4.8 -1.4 -3.1 -1.5 -3.2 -1.8 -3.5 -1.7 -3.4 -1.6 -3.2 -1.6 -3.1 -1.8 -3.4 -1.9 -3.8 -1.9 -4.0 -16.6 -3.6 6.3 12.1 -23.6 66.1 6.6 0.7 0.6 -8.4 -1.7 12.9 19.4 19.7 -2.6 -3.9 0.2 -1.0 0.8 1.0 -20.6 7.9 -0.2 6.1 -1.8 -1.4 -20.0 -1.1 2.1 -7.5 -17.8 -29.0 -7.3 -27.5 -8.7 14.8 9.2 -12.3 5.2 15.0 3.5 13.2 -6.2 -1.5 -9.2 -15.6 -3.1 5.5 10.6 -3.2 2.2 -1.2 1.8 -45.6 -34.4 -16.0 -9.6 -8.9 -15.0 2.0 -5.9 -21.1 -1.9 -0.6 -6.9 -67.9 7.3 -5.4 1.4 -23.4 19.2 -3.6 -6.7 -11.0 -6.1 -2.2 7.1 -5.4 -22.6 7.3 72.5 -7.4 -95.3 6.6 -3.6 -15.0 17.9 -7.2 -11.2 109.4 26.2 480.6 -21.3 -9.6 -0.1 10.2 -9.8 -0.6 2.7 44.9 -6.5 10.0 2.6 2.9 -0.8 2.0 -4.3 -5.4 -19.9 -5.9 4.6 0.9 -7.5 -15.0 -9.1 -7.2 2.4 5.4 -8.3 3.1 0.9 -6.9 2.0 -10.3 -2.3 2.2 1.7 -0.7 2.2 -0.9 -1.4 -2.4 0.6 3.5 7.8 -2.9 1.1 4.6 -2.6 1.9 2.2 -2.1 1.6 6.2 -6.4 -0.1 -2.3 -2.3 1.6 0.2 5.1 -6.0 -0.3 -3.6 5.3 -0.8 -1.2 -7.4 -2.5 -7.7 -3.5 -2.9 3.4 -2.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1.4 0.6 -0.2 -3.6 1.8 0.8 0.4 -0.5 0.4 -2.2 0.5 -2.1 -1.6 -1.5 -2.6 -0.8 -1.5 -6.0 -0.3 -2.4 -1.9 -1.7 2.1 0.7 -1.7 -0.3 -1.0 0.1 -0.2 -1.5 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.2 -0.3 3.8 -3.5 -1.6 -0.7 1.4 0.3 -2.3 -6.7 0.1 -2.9 -2.2 -2.1 2.7 1.1 -2.3 -0.6 -1.3 0.4 -0.5 -1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 -0.8 4.2 -2.1 -1.5 -0.4 2.0 0.5 -2.6 -6.9 -0.9 -3.1 -2.2 -2.3 2.2 1.1 -2.6 -1.8 -1.6 -1.5 -0.6 -1.8 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 -1.6 3.4 -1.3 -0.8 0.0 2.4 0.5 -2.8 -7.1 -1.4 -3.3 -2.2 -2.6 1.2 0.1 -2.8 -2.6 -1.7 -2.4 -0.8 -1.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 -1.8 2.2 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 2.2 0.3 -2.8 -7.1 -1.7 -3.3 -2.2 -2.7 0.0 -0.6 -3.0 -2.8 -1.8 -2.5 -0.8 -1.5 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 -1.6 1.8 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 1.7 0.2 -2.8 -7.1 -1.7 -3.3 -2.2 -2.7 -0.8 -0.8 -3.0 -2.8 -1.8 -2.5 -0.8 -1.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 -1.5 1.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 1.1 0.1 -2.8 -7.1 -1.7 -3.3 -2.2 -2.7 -1.2 -0.9 -3.0 -2.8 -1.9 -2.5 -0.8 -1.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 -1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.7 -0.1 -2.8 -7.1 -1.9 -3.3 -2.2 -2.7 -1.4 -1.1 -3.0 -2.8 -1.9 -2.5 -0.8 -1.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -1.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -2.9 -8.0 -1.8 -3.3 -2.3 -2.9 -1.6 -1.1 -3.2 -2.9 -1.9 -2.6 -0.7 -1.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -1.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.2 Summary tables - Trafford Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 212.6 133.8 0.0 213.3 134.1 -0.2 213.8 133.9 -0.5 215.3 134.4 0.5 217.3 135.4 1.0 219.0 135.6 0.7 220.2 135.4 0.3 221.2 135.2 0.1 222.1 135.0 0.0 223.0 134.8 0.1 223.8 134.7 0.0 224.9 134.8 0.2 225.7 134.7 0.1 229.0 134.5 0.1 231.3 133.6 -0.1 231.8 132.2 -0.5 125.8 12.7 138.5 111.6 104.7 79.8 6.9 2.4 1.8 125.7 13.0 138.8 110.5 106.1 80.7 4.4 2.3 1.7 124.1 13.0 137.1 109.5 103.6 79.0 5.9 2.5 1.9 124.8 13.3 138.1 112.4 101.5 77.0 10.9 4.5 3.3 123.5 14.0 137.5 111.9 100.0 75.3 11.9 4.5 3.3 124.3 13.4 137.7 111.8 100.2 75.3 11.6 4.6 3.4 124.5 13.4 137.9 111.9 100.4 75.5 11.6 5.0 3.7 126.6 13.6 140.2 113.7 101.9 76.7 11.9 4.9 3.7 129.3 13.8 143.2 116.1 103.7 78.2 12.4 4.8 3.5 131.9 14.0 145.9 118.2 105.5 79.6 12.8 4.6 3.4 133.9 14.1 148.0 119.9 106.8 80.6 13.0 4.5 3.4 135.6 14.2 149.8 121.2 108.0 81.4 13.2 4.3 3.2 136.7 14.3 151.0 122.0 108.8 82.1 13.2 4.1 3.1 138.0 14.5 152.5 122.9 110.3 83.3 12.5 4.2 3.1 138.2 14.6 152.8 122.6 111.2 84.6 11.4 4.3 3.2 137.8 14.5 152.3 121.8 111.5 85.7 10.3 4.5 3.4 5195 115.3 5321 115.7 5240 113.7 5369 119.7 5456 119.5 5563 118.7 5668 118.6 5865 118.4 6065 118.0 6271 117.8 6464 117.7 6644 117.7 6818 117.8 7435 118.0 8172 118.2 8918 118.5 93 94603 93 95328 94 95815 95 96580 96 96860 97 97119 98 98499 99 99655 100 100715 101 101677 102 102620 103 103487 104 104399 107 107701 110 111295 113 114411 Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.7 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.1 -0.3 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 3.1 -2.6 2.5 3.7 1.4 0.6 2.5 11.9 0.2 0.0 2.5 0.2 -1.0 1.3 0.8 -2.5 -2.4 0.0 -1.3 0.0 -1.2 -0.8 -2.3 -1.7 1.5 8.9 0.2 0.5 2.0 0.7 2.6 -2.1 -2.0 5.0 80.2 1.5 -1.0 5.1 -0.4 -0.5 -1.5 -1.7 1.0 -0.9 -0.1 0.6 -3.8 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 3.7 0.1 0.2 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 7.4 0.3 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.3 -0.6 0.0 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.5 -3.6 -0.1 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.4 -2.4 -0.1 1.5 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.2 -2.9 -0.1 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.2 -5.2 -0.2 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.0 -3.6 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.9 0.0 3.5 0.7 2.4 0.4 -1.5 -2.0 2.5 6.0 1.6 -0.2 2.0 -0.8 1.9 -0.2 3.5 -0.1 3.4 -0.4 3.4 -0.2 3.1 -0.1 2.8 0.0 2.6 0.1 2.3 0.1 1.9 0.0 1.8 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.3 1.4 0.3 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in otherwise an area, noted but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) * percentage changes unless represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – Trafford (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0 0.3 0.1 2.5 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 7.6 9.6 15.6 6.4 8.3 4.4 35.4 4.6 5.7 8.5 6.1 125.8 3.3 0.3 0.1 1.9 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.6 8.0 10.3 16.2 6.4 7.0 3.1 36.4 4.3 6.4 9.3 6.3 125.7 3.6 0.3 0.1 1.8 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 7.7 10.3 15.6 6.3 6.7 3.2 35.6 4.5 6.4 10.0 6.4 124.1 3.5 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.3 1.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.6 1.5 6.6 9.4 15.1 6.1 6.4 3.6 35.6 5.1 6.8 10.1 6.7 124.8 3.5 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.6 6.1 9.7 15.3 5.6 6.4 3.4 35.1 5.2 7.0 10.0 6.9 123.5 3.5 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.2 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.6 1.7 5.7 9.7 14.9 5.5 6.4 3.5 36.7 4.9 7.0 9.7 7.3 124.3 3.4 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.6 1.6 5.9 9.8 15.0 5.5 6.5 3.5 37.4 4.8 6.9 9.6 7.2 124.5 3.4 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.6 6.0 9.9 15.2 5.6 6.6 3.6 39.1 4.7 6.8 9.5 7.3 126.6 3.3 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.6 6.2 10.1 15.5 5.7 6.8 3.6 41.1 4.5 6.7 9.4 7.5 129.3 3.3 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.6 6.3 10.2 15.7 5.7 6.9 3.7 43.1 4.5 6.7 9.4 7.7 131.9 3.2 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.5 6.5 10.3 15.9 5.8 7.0 3.7 44.6 4.5 6.7 9.5 7.9 133.9 3.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.5 6.6 10.4 16.0 5.8 7.1 3.7 45.8 4.4 6.7 9.5 8.1 135.6 3.0 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.5 6.7 10.4 16.1 5.9 7.2 3.7 46.6 4.4 6.7 9.5 8.2 136.7 2.8 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.4 6.8 10.5 16.3 5.9 7.2 3.7 47.9 4.4 6.8 9.7 8.6 138.0 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.3 6.8 10.5 16.3 5.8 7.1 3.6 49.0 4.4 6.8 9.8 8.9 138.2 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.2 6.8 10.5 16.1 5.8 7.0 3.6 49.6 4.4 6.8 9.9 9.1 137.8 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 31.0 -18.9 2.9 -55.8 20.5 -3.0 -11.5 35.5 26.0 -27.2 -16.1 -13.7 1.2 -5.4 -1.4 -3.6 -1.5 -3.8 -1.8 -4.0 -1.7 -4.0 -1.6 -3.8 -1.6 -3.7 -1.8 -4.0 -1.9 -4.3 -1.9 -4.6 -1.5 2.9 16.0 8.4 9.1 -19.3 -0.8 22.2 -1.7 -13.1 -10.4 -0.7 1.1 168.7 -2.2 -3.1 6.2 8.5 7.2 -8.4 7.5 -6.4 3.4 5.4 -2.5 3.1 -16.9 -0.4 8.9 -23.4 -41.1 -26.3 -6.3 -29.3 -12.5 27.7 -2.0 5.7 1.1 134.6 5.5 7.2 3.7 0.7 -16.0 -29.9 2.7 -6.9 11.8 9.9 3.3 0.0 8.6 14.2 -24.2 -7.3 -8.7 -16.6 -2.3 -13.3 2.9 -25.7 10.0 5.8 -1.5 -69.0 -4.4 0.0 -3.8 -2.4 -3.5 4.2 -2.3 3.4 0.3 7.1 1.9 -1.3 -1.7 5.5 85.2 -45.7 115.1 169.5 -10.4 10.6 -2.7 -12.2 -9.2 16.5 5.3 744.6 -13.5 -8.3 -2.9 -3.6 -5.2 13.0 0.2 14.7 7.1 1.1 4.3 0.5 -0.4 -6.9 -5.9 -4.1 -18.8 -18.6 4.3 0.9 -9.0 -15.2 -9.7 -6.9 2.4 10.5 -7.5 3.1 1.1 -6.7 -0.1 -5.8 -1.4 2.4 2.3 -0.5 2.8 -1.0 -1.0 -0.7 -1.2 4.8 9.2 -8.9 0.8 4.6 -2.1 1.6 3.4 1.9 1.6 5.6 -6.9 -0.1 -2.1 -2.1 0.9 3.8 4.6 -5.8 0.3 -3.4 6.1 0.6 -0.8 -8.3 -4.2 -6.5 -2.2 -3.5 3.1 -2.6 -0.9 -1.1 -1.8 0.9 -0.2 -3.7 3.0 0.8 0.4 -0.5 0.9 -0.5 1.7 -2.1 -1.3 -1.5 -2.0 0.2 -1.1 -6.8 -2.2 -1.2 -0.6 -2.4 1.8 0.7 -1.8 -0.6 -1.4 0.4 -0.2 -1.6 2.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.9 4.5 -3.5 -1.3 -0.7 2.1 1.7 -1.9 -7.5 -1.8 -1.7 -0.9 -2.8 2.4 1.1 -2.4 -0.9 -1.6 0.8 -0.5 -1.6 2.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 2.4 1.6 5.3 -2.2 -1.2 -0.5 2.6 2.2 -2.1 -7.7 -2.8 -1.9 -0.9 -3.0 1.9 1.1 -2.7 -2.1 -1.9 -1.2 -0.6 -1.9 2.5 1.2 1.3 1.1 2.2 0.6 4.7 -1.3 -0.5 -0.1 3.0 2.0 -2.3 -7.9 -3.3 -2.1 -0.9 -3.3 0.9 0.1 -2.9 -3.0 -2.1 -2.1 -0.8 -1.8 2.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.7 0.2 3.5 -0.7 -0.2 0.2 2.8 1.5 -2.3 -7.9 -3.6 -2.1 -1.0 -3.4 -0.3 -0.6 -3.1 -3.1 -2.2 -2.2 -0.8 -1.6 1.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.2 2.7 -0.3 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.3 -2.3 -7.9 -3.7 -2.1 -1.0 -3.4 -1.1 -0.8 -3.1 -3.1 -2.2 -2.2 -0.8 -1.5 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.2 1.9 -0.2 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.8 -2.3 -7.9 -3.8 -2.2 -1.0 -3.4 -1.5 -0.9 -3.1 -3.1 -2.1 -2.2 -0.8 -1.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.4 -2.3 -8.0 -4.2 -2.2 -1.1 -3.4 -1.6 -1.1 -3.1 -3.1 -2.1 -2.2 -0.8 -1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.0 -2.4 -9.0 -4.6 -2.2 -1.1 -3.6 -1.8 -1.1 -3.3 -3.2 -2.2 -2.3 -0.7 -1.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 -0.1 Summary tables - Wigan Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 304.1 193.7 -0.2 304.1 193.0 -0.3 305.4 192.5 0.4 306.5 192.3 0.3 307.6 192.0 0.2 308.9 192.0 0.3 310.1 191.9 0.3 311.3 191.7 0.2 312.4 191.3 0.1 313.5 190.9 0.1 314.5 190.4 0.1 315.6 190.0 0.1 316.6 189.6 0.1 320.7 188.4 0.3 324.8 188.0 0.4 327.7 187.8 0.2 103.2 15.1 118.3 109.1 132.1 69.6 -23.1 5.1 2.6 101.6 15.5 117.1 107.9 133.4 70.6 -25.5 4.7 2.4 97.5 15.1 112.6 106.2 133.7 70.9 -27.5 5.4 2.8 98.8 15.1 114.0 106.7 133.5 70.9 -26.9 9.5 5.0 97.1 15.6 112.7 105.6 131.1 69.7 -25.5 8.9 4.6 96.1 14.9 111.1 103.9 129.5 68.8 -25.6 9.4 4.9 95.6 14.8 110.4 103.3 128.9 68.5 -25.7 9.9 5.2 96.3 14.9 111.3 104.1 130.1 69.2 -26.0 9.7 5.0 97.4 15.1 112.5 105.3 131.6 70.1 -26.4 9.1 4.7 98.4 15.2 113.6 106.3 133.0 70.9 -26.7 8.7 4.5 99.2 15.3 114.5 107.1 134.1 71.6 -27.0 8.2 4.3 99.8 15.3 115.1 107.7 135.0 72.2 -27.3 7.7 4.0 100.2 15.3 115.6 108.1 135.6 72.7 -27.5 7.3 3.8 100.8 15.5 116.2 108.6 136.8 73.8 -28.2 7.0 3.7 101.0 15.5 116.6 108.8 137.7 74.4 -28.9 6.8 3.6 101.3 15.6 116.9 109.0 138.5 74.9 -29.5 6.8 3.6 3745 97.3 3667 94.5 3586 94.8 3467 93.7 3516 93.9 3556 94.1 3591 93.8 3685 93.7 3781 93.6 3875 93.5 3962 93.3 4045 93.2 4126 93.1 4447 92.6 4861 92.2 5298 91.7 130 134669 131 135948 132 137788 133 135950 134 136450 135 136543 137 137943 138 139301 139 140628 140 141923 142 143196 143 144460 144 145680 149 150387 154 156160 160 161748 Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 0.2 0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.8 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.5 -1.7 -1.3 4.9 16.8 0.4 -1.5 2.2 -1.1 -1.1 1.0 0.9 -2.4 -7.0 -0.2 -4.1 -2.1 -3.8 -1.6 0.2 0.3 -2.0 15.4 0.4 1.4 0.0 1.2 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.6 74.9 2.1 -1.7 3.2 -1.1 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 1.4 -6.5 -0.3 -1.0 -4.5 -1.5 -1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.1 5.0 0.2 -0.6 -1.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 6.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 -0.3 -2.7 -0.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 -0.4 -5.9 -0.3 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 -0.3 -4.7 -0.2 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 -0.3 -4.8 -0.2 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 -0.3 -7.1 -0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 -0.2 -5.2 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -1.8 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 1.8 -0.8 -2.1 -2.7 -2.2 0.3 -3.3 -1.1 1.4 0.2 1.1 0.2 1.0 -0.2 2.6 -0.1 2.6 -0.1 2.5 -0.1 2.2 -0.2 2.1 -0.1 2.0 -0.1 1.9 -0.1 1.8 -0.1 1.7 -0.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.7 1.4 0.8 -1.3 0.9 0.4 1.0 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 * percentage otherwise noted but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents thechanges numberunless of jobs in an area, represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – Wigan (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 5.8 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.7 1.7 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 8.1 6.0 13.5 6.4 6.2 1.8 13.4 4.4 8.0 13.4 5.7 103.2 5.2 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.5 1.7 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 8.3 6.3 12.7 5.8 6.3 1.8 13.8 4.4 8.2 12.6 5.6 101.6 4.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.5 1.5 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 8.1 6.0 13.3 5.2 6.2 1.5 13.1 4.1 7.9 12.5 5.2 97.5 4.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.4 1.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.2 6.7 5.4 13.0 5.6 4.9 1.6 15.1 4.3 8.5 14.3 5.4 98.8 4.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.1 6.1 5.6 13.1 5.2 4.8 1.4 14.7 4.4 8.6 14.3 5.5 97.1 4.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.2 5.6 5.5 12.8 5.0 4.8 1.4 15.4 4.1 8.6 13.8 5.7 96.1 4.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.1 5.7 5.6 12.8 5.0 4.8 1.4 15.4 4.0 8.4 13.6 5.6 95.6 4.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.1 5.8 5.7 13.0 5.1 4.9 1.4 16.1 3.8 8.3 13.6 5.7 96.3 4.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.1 5.9 5.7 13.2 5.2 4.9 1.4 16.9 3.8 8.2 13.5 5.8 97.4 4.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.1 6.0 5.8 13.4 5.2 5.0 1.4 17.6 3.7 8.1 13.6 5.9 98.4 4.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.1 6.1 5.8 13.5 5.3 5.1 1.4 18.1 3.7 8.0 13.7 6.1 99.2 4.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.1 6.2 5.9 13.7 5.3 5.1 1.4 18.6 3.6 8.0 13.7 6.2 99.8 4.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.1 6.2 5.9 13.7 5.3 5.1 1.4 18.9 3.6 8.0 13.9 6.3 100.2 3.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.1 6.3 5.9 13.9 5.3 5.2 1.4 19.7 3.6 7.9 14.3 6.4 100.8 3.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.1 6.4 5.9 13.9 5.3 5.1 1.3 20.6 3.5 7.8 14.9 6.6 101.0 3.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 6.5 5.8 13.8 5.3 5.1 1.3 21.5 3.5 7.8 15.3 6.7 101.3 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 86.7 47.0 32.2 4.7 -15.9 -27.6 -11.0 1.6 26.0 -27.2 -16.1 -13.7 1.2 -5.4 -1.4 -3.6 -1.5 -3.8 -1.8 -4.0 -1.7 -4.0 -1.6 -3.8 -1.6 -3.7 -1.8 -4.0 -1.9 -4.3 -1.9 -4.6 11.4 -3.7 20.1 -8.7 -75.4 -11.3 -8.1 -8.0 14.6 1.1 12.9 -14.2 13.1 -6.5 10.3 -1.9 -10.0 -4.2 11.8 18.8 5.2 -5.3 -6.2 16.1 -0.4 2.4 -10.9 -4.5 14.5 -2.5 -100.0 21.8 -6.1 -20.0 3.5 23.2 -25.6 0.4 5.6 72.1 2.2 6.7 -5.8 -8.3 1.3 -3.7 3.3 -0.6 2.1 -5.7 -1.2 -1.5 -9.3 -13.6 -15.9 -24.1 0.0 -0.4 -1.7 -3.2 -14.1 -12.1 0.4 -14.4 -16.8 33.8 -1.5 -5.7 4.2 -9.9 -0.5 -15.4 -5.2 -7.5 -3.3 -0.8 -6.4 -4.1 -2.3 3.6 9.6 5.4 -100.0 24.4 -33.3 -29.1 6.5 4.7 -19.8 7.3 44.9 -41.4 -18.0 -9.7 -1.7 6.2 -20.9 6.7 15.5 6.1 8.0 14.6 2.0 1.4 0.1 -0.9 -4.3 -5.6 0.0 -17.8 6.0 0.9 -7.0 -15.2 -10.6 -7.1 2.4 -21.5 -9.2 2.9 0.5 -7.3 -2.2 -10.4 -2.8 1.6 1.4 -0.6 1.9 -1.7 -0.6 -2.9 0.6 3.3 0.0 -8.2 2.4 4.6 -2.7 1.6 0.8 -1.4 1.6 9.4 -7.4 -0.3 -2.4 -2.5 -1.1 -0.1 4.5 -6.3 -0.4 -3.4 5.2 -1.0 -0.3 -8.4 -2.5 -7.9 0.0 -3.0 4.8 -2.6 -0.8 -1.1 -3.0 0.6 -0.2 -3.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 -0.6 0.4 -1.4 0.6 -2.5 -1.8 -1.2 -2.6 -0.6 -0.7 -6.9 -0.3 -2.7 0.0 -1.9 3.3 0.7 -1.7 -0.6 -2.6 0.1 -0.2 -1.6 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.8 4.2 -3.8 -1.7 -0.4 1.6 0.8 -1.4 -7.6 0.1 -3.1 0.0 -2.2 4.0 1.1 -2.3 -0.9 -2.8 0.5 -0.5 -1.7 2.1 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.7 0.4 4.9 -2.5 -1.6 -0.1 2.2 1.1 -1.7 -7.8 -0.9 -3.3 0.0 -2.5 3.4 1.1 -2.6 -2.1 -3.1 -1.5 -0.6 -1.9 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.6 -0.5 4.2 -1.6 -0.9 0.2 2.5 1.0 -1.9 -8.0 -1.4 -3.5 0.0 -2.8 2.4 0.1 -2.8 -3.0 -3.3 -2.4 -0.8 -1.8 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.3 -0.7 3.0 -0.9 -0.6 0.5 2.3 0.8 -1.9 -8.0 -1.7 -3.5 0.0 -2.9 1.2 -0.6 -3.0 -3.1 -3.4 -2.5 -0.8 -1.6 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 -0.6 2.5 -0.6 -0.5 0.7 1.8 0.6 -1.9 -8.0 -1.7 -3.5 0.0 -2.9 0.3 -0.8 -3.0 -3.1 -3.4 -2.5 -0.8 -1.6 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 -0.5 1.8 -0.5 -0.3 0.8 1.2 0.4 -1.9 -8.0 -1.7 -3.5 0.0 -2.9 -0.1 -0.9 -3.0 -3.1 -3.4 -2.5 -0.8 -1.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.5 1.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 -1.9 -8.0 -1.9 -3.5 0.0 -2.9 -0.3 -1.1 -2.9 -3.1 -3.3 -2.5 -0.8 -1.6 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.9 -0.3 -0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 -2.0 -9.2 -1.8 -3.6 0.0 -3.0 -0.6 -1.1 -3.2 -3.2 -3.4 -2.6 -0.7 -1.6 0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 Summary tables - Cheshire Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 686.1 425.7 1.2 687.5 424.8 1.0 688.2 422.3 -0.5 689.2 420.8 0.0 691.1 419.3 1.0 693.7 418.8 1.7 695.7 417.6 1.1 697.4 416.7 0.9 699.0 415.8 0.9 700.7 415.1 1.0 702.6 414.7 1.3 704.9 414.7 1.7 707.3 414.8 1.8 718.5 417.0 2.5 733.2 422.8 2.8 746.2 428.9 2.4 321.5 45.0 366.5 323.6 324.6 77.8 -1.0 6.9 1.6 319.2 45.3 364.5 322.0 324.0 77.9 -2.0 6.6 1.5 313.7 45.8 359.5 323.4 320.8 77.6 2.6 7.3 1.7 314.2 47.3 361.5 325.0 313.0 75.9 12.0 13.5 3.2 308.6 49.2 357.8 322.4 308.4 75.1 14.0 12.5 3.0 307.1 47.1 354.3 318.7 304.2 74.1 14.5 12.9 3.1 305.3 46.5 351.8 316.5 301.4 73.6 15.1 13.7 3.3 307.7 46.7 354.5 318.9 304.9 74.6 14.1 13.4 3.2 311.2 47.1 358.3 322.4 309.8 76.0 12.6 12.6 3.0 314.1 47.3 361.3 325.1 313.7 77.0 11.4 12.1 2.9 316.0 47.2 363.2 326.7 316.2 77.7 10.5 11.5 2.8 317.6 47.2 364.8 328.0 318.2 78.2 9.8 10.8 2.6 318.5 47.1 365.6 328.6 319.2 78.4 9.4 10.2 2.5 318.9 47.0 365.9 328.3 318.7 77.8 9.6 9.9 2.4 318.8 46.8 365.7 327.6 317.0 76.3 10.6 9.8 2.3 317.6 46.5 364.1 325.7 314.4 74.6 11.3 9.8 2.3 13638 114.4 14012 116.0 13989 115.8 13792 117.5 13888 116.9 14007 116.2 14200 116.4 14589 116.5 14994 116.6 15375 116.7 15738 116.8 16078 116.9 16416 117.1 17782 117.7 19584 118.3 21424 119.1 292 356190 293 359599 295 361871 297 360100 299 424191 302 424420 304 428132 306 431344 308 434402 311 437352 313 440363 315 443395 317 446554 327 459687 340 478051 353 497139 Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 0.3 0.3 -1.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.6 -1.4 0.1 -0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.4 1.0 0.4 -0.1 0.7 0.3 -0.3 -0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 -0.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.4 0.5 0.2 5.8 26.0 0.3 -0.7 0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 -1.1 -4.3 -0.1 -1.7 1.2 -1.4 0.4 -1.0 -0.3 4.7 11.6 0.2 0.1 3.2 0.5 0.5 -2.4 -1.6 9.3 84.3 1.5 -1.8 4.1 -1.0 -0.8 -1.5 -0.9 2.0 -7.4 -0.2 -0.5 -4.2 -1.0 -1.1 -1.4 -0.9 0.5 3.1 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.9 -0.5 0.6 5.8 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.0 -1.1 -2.4 -0.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 -1.4 -5.4 -0.2 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.1 -1.2 -4.3 -0.1 0.6 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 -0.9 -4.5 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 -0.7 -6.7 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -4.9 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -1.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.1 -0.2 2.7 1.7 -0.2 -0.2 -1.4 1.6 0.7 -0.6 0.9 -0.7 1.4 0.2 2.7 0.1 2.8 0.1 2.5 0.1 2.4 0.1 2.2 0.1 2.1 0.1 2.0 0.1 1.9 0.1 1.8 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 -0.5 0.7 17.8 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 * percentage changes Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of unless jobs inotherwise an area,noted but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – Cheshire (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 4.8 0.8 4.9 0.7 4.9 0.4 4.3 0.5 5.5 0.4 4.6 0.3 4.6 0.3 4.6 0.3 4.5 0.3 4.4 0.3 4.3 0.3 4.3 0.2 4.2 0.2 3.9 0.2 3.6 0.2 3.2 0.1 4.5 1.8 0.6 4.2 1.3 10.5 3.1 1.4 3.9 2.0 2.4 8.3 1.3 0.7 14.5 18.6 37.2 25.6 16.0 18.3 51.4 10.4 25.6 35.9 16.4 321.5 4.5 1.7 0.6 4.3 1.1 6.5 2.8 1.1 3.8 2.5 2.1 7.0 1.4 0.7 14.3 18.9 37.6 24.2 14.8 18.6 57.6 10.5 25.6 36.3 15.1 319.2 4.5 1.2 0.4 3.4 1.0 5.5 2.4 1.3 3.7 2.5 2.1 6.5 1.2 0.8 13.3 19.5 36.6 22.8 14.7 18.8 57.7 10.0 24.8 37.5 16.1 313.7 4.1 1.1 0.5 3.3 0.9 5.9 1.9 1.0 3.6 2.4 2.0 7.6 2.1 2.2 11.4 18.4 35.4 22.3 14.2 20.5 56.6 12.2 25.2 38.5 15.8 314.2 4.2 1.1 0.5 3.2 0.7 6.1 2.0 1.0 3.4 2.0 1.8 7.1 2.1 2.5 10.4 18.9 35.6 20.7 14.1 18.7 54.6 12.4 25.6 38.1 16.0 308.6 4.1 1.1 0.5 3.3 0.7 6.1 2.0 1.0 3.3 2.1 1.8 7.2 2.2 2.6 9.6 18.9 34.7 20.1 14.2 18.9 57.0 11.6 25.6 36.6 16.8 307.1 4.1 1.0 0.5 3.1 0.7 6.0 2.1 1.0 3.3 2.0 1.8 7.3 2.2 2.5 9.8 19.0 34.8 20.0 14.2 18.7 57.4 11.4 25.2 35.9 16.3 305.3 4.1 0.9 0.5 3.0 0.7 5.9 2.2 1.0 3.2 2.0 1.8 7.3 2.2 2.5 10.0 19.2 35.2 20.2 14.4 19.0 59.6 10.9 24.8 35.6 16.5 307.7 4.1 0.8 0.5 3.0 0.7 5.8 2.2 1.0 3.2 2.0 1.7 7.3 2.2 2.4 10.2 19.5 35.8 20.5 14.7 19.1 62.4 10.7 24.4 35.3 16.8 311.2 4.0 0.8 0.5 2.9 0.7 5.7 2.3 1.0 3.1 2.0 1.7 7.2 2.2 2.4 10.4 19.7 36.2 20.7 14.9 19.0 64.8 10.5 24.2 35.2 17.2 314.1 3.9 0.7 0.5 2.8 0.7 5.6 2.3 1.0 3.0 1.9 1.7 7.1 2.2 2.3 10.5 19.8 36.5 20.9 15.1 18.9 66.5 10.4 24.1 35.2 17.6 316.0 3.9 0.7 0.5 2.8 0.6 5.5 2.3 1.0 2.9 1.8 1.6 6.9 2.2 2.3 10.7 20.0 36.9 21.0 15.2 18.9 67.8 10.4 24.0 35.3 17.9 317.6 3.8 0.6 0.5 2.7 0.6 5.4 2.3 1.0 2.9 1.8 1.6 6.8 2.2 2.3 10.8 20.1 37.1 21.1 15.3 18.8 68.8 10.4 24.0 35.4 18.0 318.5 3.5 0.4 0.4 2.4 0.6 4.9 2.2 1.0 2.6 1.6 1.4 6.2 2.1 2.1 10.9 20.1 37.5 21.3 15.3 18.7 70.4 10.4 24.2 36.1 18.4 318.9 3.2 0.3 0.4 2.1 0.5 4.4 2.1 0.9 2.3 1.3 1.3 5.5 2.1 2.0 11.1 20.0 37.8 21.3 15.2 18.5 72.5 10.4 24.4 36.7 18.7 318.8 3.0 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.5 4.0 2.2 0.9 2.0 1.1 1.1 4.8 1.9 1.8 11.4 19.8 38.1 21.3 15.0 16.9 74.4 10.5 23.3 38.9 19.1 317.6 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 5.4 -0.9 1.6 -10.3 0.8 -39.8 -11.7 21.8 26.0 -27.2 -16.1 -13.7 1.2 -5.4 -1.4 -3.6 -1.5 -3.8 -1.8 -4.0 -1.7 -4.0 -1.6 -3.8 -1.6 -3.7 -1.8 -4.0 -1.9 -4.3 -1.9 -4.6 -12.6 -30.0 -35.0 -24.3 -1.3 -8.8 4.1 8.6 -1.5 13.4 7.3 -7.3 -28.3 7.2 14.1 2.1 -5.3 4.1 1.2 10.3 9.3 -9.0 2.7 8.4 32.2 3.0 0.5 -5.6 8.2 2.5 -13.2 -38.0 -9.5 -24.3 -2.2 24.8 -10.9 -15.1 9.2 -1.2 -1.2 1.6 1.1 -5.8 -7.4 1.7 12.1 0.4 -0.2 1.1 -8.0 -0.7 -0.1 -29.5 -31.6 -22.2 -6.1 -16.2 -11.8 19.3 -4.4 -1.3 -0.5 -7.9 -11.8 7.1 -6.7 3.2 -2.5 -5.7 -0.2 0.9 0.2 -4.4 -3.2 3.4 6.7 -1.7 -8.6 -10.2 17.3 -0.7 -15.9 8.6 -21.7 -26.1 -0.6 -3.2 -5.3 18.0 64.9 188.4 -14.2 -5.8 -3.2 -2.1 -3.6 9.6 -2.0 21.8 1.9 2.8 -2.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 -4.3 -4.5 -19.9 2.5 5.0 0.9 -7.5 -15.2 -9.4 -6.9 3.0 11.1 -9.4 2.9 0.4 -7.3 -0.5 -9.0 -3.4 1.7 1.5 -1.2 1.6 -1.8 -0.4 -2.9 0.6 4.4 7.8 0.5 1.4 4.6 -2.1 1.6 2.5 1.7 2.2 5.5 -7.2 -0.3 -2.4 -2.5 0.2 1.3 4.3 -6.2 -0.2 -3.9 5.0 -0.5 -0.1 -8.2 -2.5 -6.9 -3.5 -2.3 3.8 -2.6 -0.5 -1.1 -2.0 0.8 0.4 -3.7 2.1 0.6 0.1 -0.8 0.4 -1.1 0.8 -2.4 -1.6 -1.8 -2.9 -0.6 -0.5 -6.7 -0.3 -1.6 -1.9 -1.1 2.4 0.7 -1.4 -0.6 -1.6 0.3 0.3 -1.7 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.1 3.9 -3.7 -1.6 -1.0 1.3 0.8 -1.2 -7.4 0.1 -2.1 -2.2 -1.5 3.0 1.1 -2.0 -0.9 -1.8 0.7 0.1 -1.7 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.8 0.7 4.6 -2.4 -1.5 -0.7 1.8 1.1 -1.5 -7.6 -0.9 -2.3 -2.2 -1.7 2.5 1.1 -2.3 -2.1 -2.1 -1.3 -0.1 -1.9 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.6 -0.3 3.9 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 2.2 0.9 -1.7 -7.8 -1.4 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0 1.5 0.1 -2.5 -3.0 -2.3 -2.2 -0.3 -1.9 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 -0.5 2.6 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 2.1 0.6 -1.7 -7.8 -1.7 -2.5 -2.2 -2.1 0.3 -0.6 -2.6 -3.1 -2.4 -2.3 -0.3 -1.6 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 -0.4 2.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 1.5 0.5 -1.7 -7.8 -1.7 -2.5 -2.2 -2.1 -0.5 -0.8 -2.6 -3.1 -2.4 -2.3 -0.3 -1.6 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 -0.2 1.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 1.0 0.3 -1.7 -7.8 -1.7 -2.5 -2.2 -2.1 -1.0 -0.9 -2.6 -3.1 -2.4 -2.3 -0.3 -1.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 -1.7 -7.8 -1.9 -2.5 -2.2 -2.1 -1.1 -1.1 -2.6 -3.1 -2.3 -2.3 -0.3 -1.6 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 -1.6 -8.9 -1.8 -3.4 -2.3 -2.0 0.6 -1.1 -2.1 -3.2 -2.4 -2.4 -1.9 -1.6 0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -1.4 0.5 0.1 -0.7 1.0 0.4 -0.1 Summary tables – Greater Manchester Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 2554.2 1644.3 - 2565.5 1651.7 - 2580.1 1656.7 - 2600.6 1668.5 - 2629.4 1685.8 - 2651.5 1696.6 - 2667.8 1701.4 - 2682.6 1703.6 - 2696.4 1704.5 - 2709.2 1704.3 - 2723.0 1704.9 - 2736.2 1704.8 - 2749.5 1705.1 - 2800.3 1706.2 - 2848.8 1706.9 - 2875.7 1698.3 - 1171.6 137.5 1309.1 1156.9 1133.4 68.9 23.6 43.6 2.7 1177.2 140.5 1317.7 1163.6 1134.3 68.7 29.4 42.5 2.6 1158.1 143.3 1301.4 1163.9 1125.1 67.9 38.8 46.6 2.8 1150.3 143.3 1293.5 1159.8 1104.9 66.2 55.0 77.8 4.7 1131.6 147.9 1279.6 1147.6 1103.8 65.5 43.8 76.7 4.6 1131.4 141.9 1273.3 1140.7 1098.7 64.8 42.0 82.6 4.9 1129.5 140.9 1270.4 1137.9 1096.5 64.4 41.4 88.2 5.2 1142.2 142.5 1284.8 1150.5 1108.2 65.1 42.3 86.7 5.1 1159.1 144.6 1303.7 1167.1 1123.3 65.9 43.8 82.6 4.8 1174.6 146.0 1320.6 1181.8 1136.7 66.7 45.1 79.7 4.7 1187.4 146.8 1334.2 1193.5 1147.5 67.3 46.0 76.7 4.5 1198.5 147.4 1345.9 1203.5 1156.8 67.9 46.7 72.1 4.2 1206.5 148.0 1354.5 1210.7 1163.7 68.3 46.9 69.1 4.1 1222.1 150.4 1372.5 1225.0 1179.1 69.1 45.9 69.5 4.1 1233.2 152.3 1385.5 1234.8 1191.1 69.8 43.6 71.4 4.2 1239.5 153.8 1393.2 1240.1 1199.1 70.6 41.0 74.1 4.4 44172.8 - 45096.0 - 45008.8 - 43674.8 - 44160.7 - 44925.8 - 45628.3 - 47003.0 - 48382.2 - 49762.9 - 51084.5 - 52338.0 - 53591.8 - 58473.9 - 64604.1 - 70869 - 1091.5 - 1099.1 - 1108.5 - 1121.6 - 1137.8 - 1150.3 - 1160.5 - 1170.4 - 1180.2 - 1189.8 - 1199.8 - 1209.5 - 1219.3 - 1258.6 - 1307.2 - 1351 - Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 0.4 0.8 - 0.4 0.4 - 0.6 0.3 - 0.8 0.7 - 1.1 1.0 - 0.8 0.6 - 0.6 0.3 - 0.6 0.1 - 0.5 0.0 - 0.5 0.0 - 0.5 0.0 - 0.5 0.0 - 0.5 0.0 - 0.5 0.0 - 0.4 0.0 - 0.2 -0.1 - 1.4 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.0 5.9 13.8 0.3 0.5 2.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 -0.3 5.8 -2.5 -0.1 -1.6 2.0 -1.2 0.0 -0.8 -0.8 9.4 9.7 0.2 -0.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 -1.8 -1.7 16.2 66.8 1.8 -1.6 3.3 -1.1 -1.1 -0.1 -0.7 -11.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.0 -4.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -1.9 7.7 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 6.7 0.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.9 -1.6 -0.1 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.9 1.5 -4.8 -0.2 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.3 -3.5 -0.2 1.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.9 -3.7 -0.2 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 -6.0 -0.3 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 -4.1 -0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.4 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.5 0.8 0.0 2.3 - 2.1 - -0.2 - -3.0 - 1.1 - 1.7 - 1.6 - 3.0 - 2.9 - 2.9 - 2.7 - 2.5 - 2.4 - 2.2 - 2.0 - 1.9 - 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.2 0.0 1.4 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.7 0.0 * percentage changes unless otherwise noted Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – Greater Manchester (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 2.1 0.2 2.2 0.3 2.4 0.2 2.1 0.3 2.6 0.1 2.2 0.1 2.2 0.1 2.2 0.1 2.2 0.1 2.1 0.1 2.1 0.1 2.1 0.1 2.0 0.1 1.9 0.1 1.7 0.1 1.6 0.0 23.4 12.0 2.6 15.0 0.3 10.7 11.2 3.7 15.5 11.1 12.9 5.2 8.8 1.6 61.5 79.3 121.8 70.9 77.7 51.1 209.3 63.8 103.6 140.3 55.8 1171.6 20.8 10.7 3.0 14.5 0.2 9.9 11.2 3.2 14.8 12.7 13.1 5.9 8.9 2.3 63.0 83.7 121.1 70.2 74.2 48.2 217.0 64.6 103.1 143.2 55.3 1177.2 20.4 8.3 2.0 12.9 0.2 8.7 11.0 3.1 13.8 11.2 13.0 5.3 7.5 1.9 64.1 76.3 120.5 65.0 77.6 49.7 217.0 60.8 102.1 146.9 56.0 1158.1 19.3 8.0 2.9 11.0 0.3 9.9 9.1 2.5 14.5 9.5 11.2 7.0 10.1 7.7 55.3 71.3 121.1 68.3 68.7 47.1 217.5 65.0 102.2 151.6 56.8 1150.3 19.3 8.0 2.8 10.4 0.3 8.4 9.5 2.5 13.4 8.0 10.2 6.5 10.3 7.7 49.9 73.5 121.1 64.1 68.7 43.3 209.6 66.7 104.8 151.7 58.4 1131.6 19.1 7.9 2.8 10.8 0.3 7.9 9.6 2.6 13.0 8.1 10.4 6.4 10.5 8.2 46.2 73.4 118.9 62.9 69.9 44.9 218.7 62.9 105.1 146.9 61.7 1131.4 19.0 7.2 2.7 9.9 0.3 7.6 10.0 2.6 12.9 8.1 10.2 6.4 10.5 7.9 47.2 73.9 119.6 62.8 70.5 44.7 222.4 61.5 103.6 145.1 60.3 1129.5 18.8 6.8 2.7 9.7 0.3 7.5 10.2 2.6 12.7 8.0 10.1 6.4 10.5 7.7 48.2 74.9 121.7 63.9 71.8 45.5 232.7 59.3 102.2 144.5 61.3 1142.2 18.5 6.3 2.7 9.4 0.3 7.3 10.5 2.6 12.4 7.9 9.9 6.4 10.4 7.6 49.4 76.1 123.9 65.0 73.3 46.0 244.8 58.0 100.9 144.3 62.8 1159.1 18.1 5.8 2.7 9.2 0.3 7.2 10.7 2.7 12.0 7.8 9.6 6.3 10.3 7.5 50.4 76.9 125.6 65.9 74.8 46.2 256.1 57.1 100.2 144.5 64.4 1174.6 17.7 5.4 2.7 8.9 0.3 7.0 10.9 2.7 11.7 7.6 9.4 6.2 10.3 7.4 51.3 77.6 127.0 66.7 76.1 46.2 264.7 56.7 99.9 145.1 66.1 1187.4 17.3 5.0 2.6 8.6 0.3 6.8 10.9 2.7 11.3 7.3 9.2 6.0 10.2 7.2 52.1 78.2 128.4 67.4 77.0 46.3 272.1 56.5 99.7 146.0 67.3 1198.5 17.0 4.6 2.6 8.3 0.3 6.6 10.8 2.7 10.9 7.1 9.0 5.9 10.1 7.1 52.7 78.6 129.4 67.9 77.6 46.4 277.6 56.3 99.7 147.0 68.2 1206.5 15.5 3.3 2.4 7.3 0.3 5.9 10.3 2.6 9.6 6.3 8.1 5.3 9.8 6.7 54.1 79.1 131.1 68.8 78.7 46.7 290.3 56.0 100.1 151.6 70.3 1222.1 13.9 2.2 2.1 6.2 0.2 5.2 9.6 2.5 8.2 5.4 7.2 4.6 9.4 6.2 55.5 78.9 131.6 68.8 79.2 46.8 304.8 55.3 99.9 155.6 71.9 1233.2 12.3 1.4 1.9 5.3 0.2 4.5 9.0 2.4 6.9 4.5 6.4 4.1 9.2 5.7 56.8 78.6 131.5 68.4 79.3 47.3 316.8 54.2 99.9 158.2 73.1 1239.5 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 36.0 22.4 4.0 40.1 6.8 -34.3 -12.5 21.2 26.0 -55.5 -16.0 -13.5 1.3 -5.2 -1.3 -3.5 -1.4 -3.6 -1.7 -3.9 -1.6 -3.8 -1.5 -3.6 -1.5 -3.5 -1.7 -3.8 -1.8 -4.2 -1.9 -4.5 0.7 0.3 13.7 5.4 -16.4 -0.9 -3.0 1.5 2.8 -1.9 -6.8 -14.9 13.2 16.6 9.6 -6.4 -2.0 -3.2 2.8 8.3 6.8 -3.8 1.2 2.9 -2.8 1.4 -11.1 -11.2 13.2 -2.9 -36.9 -7.7 -0.1 -13.8 -4.0 14.2 2.0 11.7 1.4 41.9 2.4 5.5 -0.6 -1.0 -4.5 -5.7 3.7 1.3 -0.5 2.0 -0.9 0.5 -1.9 -22.3 -33.9 -11.2 -1.2 -11.7 -1.3 -3.8 -7.1 -12.2 -0.6 -9.5 -15.4 -15.7 1.9 -8.8 -0.5 -7.4 4.6 3.2 0.0 -5.9 -0.9 2.6 1.2 -1.6 -5.4 -3.3 48.4 -15.0 58.5 12.9 -17.7 -19.2 5.4 -15.4 -13.9 31.2 33.6 303.6 -13.7 -6.5 0.5 5.0 -11.5 -5.2 0.2 7.0 0.1 3.2 1.6 -0.7 -0.2 0.2 -4.4 -5.3 -19.0 -14.7 4.8 1.1 -8.0 -15.2 -9.4 -7.2 2.5 0.0 -9.9 3.0 0.0 -6.1 0.1 -8.2 -3.6 2.7 2.5 0.0 2.7 -1.6 -0.8 -2.1 0.4 3.6 8.9 -6.6 1.2 4.9 -2.6 1.6 2.8 -1.2 1.7 6.7 -7.4 -0.2 -1.8 -1.7 1.7 3.7 4.3 -5.8 0.3 -3.1 5.6 0.0 -0.6 -7.8 -2.6 -7.6 -2.5 -2.8 3.6 -2.3 -1.0 -1.1 -2.1 0.5 -0.1 -3.6 2.2 0.7 0.6 -0.2 0.9 -0.4 1.7 -2.2 -1.4 -1.2 -2.3 -0.2 -1.0 -6.3 -0.5 -2.3 -0.9 -1.7 2.2 1.0 -1.8 -0.6 -1.7 0.0 -0.1 -1.6 2.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 4.6 -3.6 -1.4 -0.4 1.8 1.1 -1.7 -7.2 0.0 -2.8 -1.2 -2.1 2.8 1.4 -2.5 -0.9 -1.9 0.4 -0.4 -1.6 2.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.2 1.3 5.2 -2.3 -1.3 -0.2 2.3 1.5 -2.0 -7.5 -1.1 -3.0 -1.2 -2.4 2.3 1.3 -2.8 -2.1 -2.2 -1.6 -0.6 -1.8 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.0 0.3 4.6 -1.5 -0.7 0.1 2.7 1.3 -2.2 -7.7 -1.6 -3.2 -1.2 -2.6 1.3 0.3 -3.0 -2.9 -2.4 -2.4 -0.8 -1.8 1.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.7 0.1 3.4 -0.7 -0.3 0.5 2.5 1.1 -2.2 -7.7 -1.8 -3.2 -1.3 -2.7 0.1 -0.3 -3.1 -3.1 -2.4 -2.6 -0.8 -1.6 1.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.2 2.8 -0.4 -0.2 0.6 1.9 0.9 -2.2 -7.7 -1.8 -3.2 -1.3 -2.7 -0.7 -0.5 -3.1 -3.1 -2.4 -2.6 -0.8 -1.5 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 2.0 -0.3 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.7 -2.2 -7.7 -1.9 -3.2 -1.3 -2.7 -1.1 -0.6 -3.1 -3.1 -2.4 -2.6 -0.8 -1.5 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.3 -0.2 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 -2.2 -7.7 -2.0 -3.2 -1.3 -2.7 -1.3 -0.9 -3.1 -3.1 -2.4 -2.6 -0.8 -1.5 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 -0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 -2.3 -8.7 -2.0 -3.2 -1.4 -2.9 -1.4 -0.9 -3.4 -3.2 -2.5 -2.7 -0.6 -1.6 0.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 Summary tables – North West Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 6852.0 4234.7 0.3 6863.7 4239.2 -2.7 6874.1 4236.3 -8.2 6897.9 4243.5 4.5 6935.7 4266.2 17.2 6965.0 4288.3 10.2 6985.7 4297.7 1.2 7004.1 4303.9 -1.7 7021.5 4311.5 -3.3 7039.2 4318.4 -3.5 7059.0 4326.5 -1.8 7080.5 4334.7 -0.7 7102.8 4343.7 -0.1 7197.8 4360.1 3.0 7307.9 4418.8 4.0 7396.5 4377.6 2.1 3041.6 383.9 3436.1 3038.1 3033.9 71.6 4.2 115.6 2.7 3051.6 388.4 3449.1 3065.8 3046.3 71.9 19.5 110.0 2.6 2990.5 398.9 3397.5 3011.4 3025.4 71.4 -14.0 119.6 2.8 2967.8 405.6 3381.2 2993.5 2970.8 70.0 22.8 192.2 4.5 2915.3 419.2 3342.0 2968.2 2957.5 69.3 10.7 184.1 4.3 2895.0 401.0 3301.0 2935.1 2923.8 68.2 11.3 192.6 4.5 2877.6 396.5 3279.0 2916.7 2904.8 67.6 11.8 212.2 4.9 2897.7 399.5 3302.0 2938.1 2924.9 68.0 13.2 207.1 4.8 2928.1 403.5 3336.3 2969.5 2954.1 68.5 15.4 195.7 4.5 2955.3 406.0 3366.1 2996.6 2979.1 69.0 17.5 187.3 4.3 2976.7 406.8 3388.2 3016.4 2997.3 69.3 19.1 179.1 4.1 2994.9 407.4 3406.9 3033.2 3012.8 69.5 20.4 167.3 3.9 3006.6 407.9 3419.0 3043.9 3022.5 69.6 21.4 159.4 3.7 3021.9 410.1 3436.3 3059.4 3035.4 69.6 24.0 156.7 3.6 3030.2 411.6 3445.9 3068.6 3041.4 68.8 27.2 157.3 3.6 3037.3 412.9 3453.9 3076.7 3046.1 69.6 30.6 159.7 3.6 111804 - 114281 - 114124 - 109824 - 111003 - 112327 - 113703 - 116672 - 119772 - 122786 - 125684 - 128408 - 131122 - 141957 - 155950 - 170645 - 2927 3115798 2942 3137466 2958 3165016 2981 3145840 3010 3218691 3034 3224320 3056 3250878 3076 3273490 3096 3295505 3117 3317069 3137 3338472 3158 3360324 3179 3382418 3265 3472975 3380 3595212 3497 3720603 Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 0.2 0.4 -10.2 0.2 0.1 -3.0 0.2 -0.1 -5.5 0.3 0.2 12.7 0.5 0.5 12.7 0.4 0.5 -7.0 0.3 0.2 -9.0 0.3 0.1 -2.8 0.2 0.2 -1.6 0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.2 1.6 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 2.5 0.8 2.2 1.7 0.1 -0.2 48.1 14.1 0.3 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 15.4 -4.8 -0.1 -2.0 2.7 -1.5 -1.8 -0.7 -0.4 -33.6 8.8 0.2 -0.8 1.7 -0.5 -0.6 -1.8 -1.4 36.8 60.7 1.7 -1.8 3.4 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 -0.7 -12.1 -4.2 -0.2 -0.7 -4.3 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 0.6 4.6 0.2 -0.6 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 0.6 10.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 1.4 -2.4 -0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.6 2.2 -5.5 -0.3 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 2.1 -4.2 -0.2 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 1.5 -4.4 -0.2 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.3 -6.6 -0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 -4.7 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 -1.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.5 - 2.2 - -0.1 - -3.8 - 1.1 - 1.2 - 1.2 - 2.6 - 2.7 - 2.5 - 2.4 - 2.2 - 2.1 - 2.0 - 1.9 - 1.8 - 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 -0.6 1.0 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents the number of jobs in an area, but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) * percentage changes unless otherwise noted represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – North West (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 18.7 2.4 18.9 2.9 19.6 2.0 17.2 1.9 21.6 1.7 18.2 1.5 18.4 1.5 18.1 1.4 17.8 1.4 17.5 1.3 17.2 1.3 17.0 1.2 16.7 1.2 15.5 1.0 14.1 0.8 12.8 0.7 55.3 23.6 7.6 38.1 9.6 39.2 27.9 12.3 40.7 27.4 26.5 45.4 22.4 7.9 149.6 187.5 327.1 212.8 180.4 111.1 474.7 178.5 274.5 394.6 146.2 3041.6 54.0 22.5 8.8 37.6 10.4 33.2 27.3 10.7 40.2 30.2 25.7 46.9 22.6 11.6 149.9 195.5 325.0 206.7 171.8 107.0 492.4 180.1 278.9 398.2 142.6 3051.6 51.6 18.3 5.5 34.3 9.4 29.0 26.5 10.2 38.6 25.0 25.5 45.1 19.2 8.0 155.3 182.8 322.1 196.4 175.7 107.0 484.9 169.8 263.3 413.7 151.8 2990.5 47.3 16.8 7.8 29.8 9.7 32.2 23.1 8.3 39.7 22.1 24.0 52.4 25.8 14.4 140.8 170.7 321.6 200.8 160.7 106.9 472.4 179.4 262.3 427.6 152.0 2967.8 47.2 16.8 7.4 28.2 7.8 29.1 24.2 8.4 36.7 18.8 21.7 48.9 26.5 15.1 127.2 175.8 322.4 186.9 160.2 97.7 455.2 183.1 267.0 424.4 155.1 2915.3 46.9 16.4 7.5 29.3 8.5 27.9 24.5 8.8 35.9 19.1 22.2 48.8 27.0 16.1 117.8 175.6 314.8 182.6 161.3 100.0 474.4 171.8 266.3 408.8 163.0 2895.0 46.7 15.1 7.3 27.1 8.2 27.1 25.3 8.6 35.6 18.9 21.8 49.4 27.0 15.6 120.0 176.8 315.5 181.4 162.3 99.0 479.4 167.7 261.7 401.9 158.6 2877.6 46.3 14.1 7.3 26.5 8.1 26.7 25.8 8.7 35.1 18.9 21.4 49.7 27.0 15.4 122.2 179.2 319.9 183.9 164.8 100.1 499.4 161.4 257.2 398.5 160.8 2897.7 45.5 13.1 7.4 25.7 8.0 26.2 26.5 8.8 34.3 18.7 21.0 50.2 26.9 15.2 124.9 182.0 324.9 186.6 167.9 100.8 523.6 157.5 253.1 396.2 163.9 2928.1 44.7 12.1 7.3 25.0 7.8 25.6 27.1 8.9 33.5 18.3 20.5 49.7 26.8 14.9 127.1 184.0 328.6 188.6 170.9 100.6 545.4 155.0 250.8 395.4 167.8 2955.3 43.7 11.1 7.2 24.2 7.7 24.9 27.4 8.9 32.6 17.8 20.0 48.8 26.6 14.7 129.0 185.7 331.6 190.3 173.3 100.3 561.7 153.8 249.4 395.9 171.4 2976.7 42.8 10.3 7.1 23.5 7.5 24.3 27.4 8.9 31.7 17.3 19.5 47.9 26.5 14.5 130.9 187.2 334.5 191.8 175.1 100.0 575.6 153.0 248.5 396.9 174.2 2994.9 41.9 9.5 7.0 22.8 7.4 23.7 27.2 8.8 30.8 16.8 19.0 47.0 26.3 14.3 132.1 188.2 336.5 192.8 176.1 99.9 585.5 152.4 247.9 398.6 176.1 3006.6 38.5 6.9 6.6 20.1 6.9 21.4 25.8 8.6 27.4 14.9 17.1 43.4 25.7 13.6 135.2 189.2 339.4 194.2 177.4 99.4 607.5 151.7 247.3 407.1 180.0 3021.9 34.6 4.6 6.1 17.2 6.3 18.8 24.1 8.2 23.8 12.9 15.1 39.2 24.8 12.8 138.5 188.7 340.1 194.3 177.4 98.5 633.8 150.7 246.4 415.1 183.3 3030.2 31.0 2.9 5.6 14.5 5.7 16.4 22.5 7.9 20.5 11.0 13.3 35.3 24.1 12.0 141.8 188.1 340.8 194.1 177.1 97.6 657.3 149.7 245.3 423.0 186.5 3037.3 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 8.2 3.5 1.2 22.2 3.3 -31.5 -12.2 -3.1 26.0 -11.1 -16.1 -10.0 1.2 -5.5 -1.4 -3.2 -1.5 -3.3 -1.8 -3.6 -1.7 -3.5 -1.6 -3.3 -1.6 -3.2 -1.8 -3.5 -1.9 -3.9 -1.9 -4.1 -3.2 -11.1 -6.7 -3.3 -6.9 -5.3 -4.4 3.7 2.4 1.8 -8.4 2.1 -1.0 8.7 5.4 -0.8 -0.1 2.7 5.1 7.7 10.0 -1.4 2.2 1.6 2.2 2.5 -2.4 -4.7 15.0 -1.3 8.1 -15.3 -2.4 -12.5 -1.3 10.3 -3.1 3.3 0.9 48.0 0.2 4.3 -0.6 -2.9 -4.8 -3.7 3.7 0.9 1.6 0.9 -2.4 0.3 -4.5 -18.4 -36.8 -8.9 -9.9 -12.6 -2.7 -4.9 -4.0 -17.3 -0.7 -3.8 -15.1 -31.3 3.6 -6.5 -0.9 -5.0 2.3 0.0 -1.5 -5.7 -5.6 3.9 6.4 -2.0 -8.2 -8.3 39.9 -13.1 3.8 11.1 -12.8 -18.9 3.1 -11.6 -6.1 16.2 34.7 80.3 -9.3 -6.6 -0.2 2.2 -8.6 -0.1 -2.6 5.7 -0.4 3.4 0.2 -0.8 -0.2 -0.2 -4.0 -5.2 -19.5 -9.7 4.6 1.1 -7.7 -15.1 -9.6 -6.6 2.7 4.8 -9.7 3.0 0.2 -6.9 -0.3 -8.6 -3.6 2.1 1.8 -0.7 2.0 -1.8 -0.6 -2.3 0.8 3.7 8.2 -4.3 1.1 4.9 -2.3 1.8 2.6 -0.2 1.8 6.6 -7.3 -0.2 -2.3 -2.3 0.7 2.4 4.2 -6.2 -0.3 -3.7 5.1 -0.7 -0.5 -8.0 -2.2 -7.5 -3.1 -2.7 3.4 -2.3 -0.7 -0.9 -2.2 1.2 0.0 -3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 -0.6 0.6 -1.0 1.0 -2.4 -1.8 -1.7 -2.7 -0.6 -0.9 -6.5 -0.1 -2.3 -1.5 -1.6 2.1 0.9 -1.5 -0.4 -1.8 0.7 0.0 -1.3 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.1 4.2 -3.7 -1.7 -0.8 1.4 0.7 -1.6 -7.3 0.4 -2.7 -1.8 -1.9 2.7 1.4 -2.2 -0.8 -2.0 1.0 -0.3 -1.3 2.2 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.9 0.7 4.8 -2.4 -1.6 -0.6 2.0 1.0 -1.9 -7.5 -0.7 -2.9 -1.8 -2.2 2.2 1.3 -2.5 -1.9 -2.3 -0.9 -0.4 -1.5 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.8 -0.2 4.2 -1.6 -0.9 -0.2 2.4 0.9 -2.1 -7.7 -1.2 -3.1 -1.8 -2.5 1.2 0.3 -2.7 -2.8 -2.4 -1.8 -0.6 -1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 -0.4 3.0 -0.8 -0.5 0.1 2.2 0.7 -2.1 -7.7 -1.4 -3.1 -1.8 -2.6 0.0 -0.3 -2.8 -2.9 -2.5 -1.9 -0.6 -1.3 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 -0.2 2.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.3 1.6 0.6 -2.1 -7.7 -1.4 -3.1 -1.8 -2.6 -0.8 -0.6 -2.8 -2.9 -2.5 -2.0 -0.6 -1.2 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.1 1.7 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 1.1 0.4 -2.1 -7.7 -1.5 -3.1 -1.8 -2.6 -1.2 -0.6 -2.8 -2.9 -2.5 -2.0 -0.6 -1.2 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.1 1.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 -2.1 -7.7 -1.6 -3.1 -1.8 -2.6 -1.4 -0.9 -2.8 -2.9 -2.5 -2.0 -0.6 -1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.9 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 -2.2 -8.7 -1.7 -3.2 -1.9 -2.6 -1.4 -0.9 -2.9 -3.1 -2.5 -2.0 -0.6 -1.3 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 Summary tables - UK Table 1: Key indicators Demography Total population Working age population Total migration Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate Net commuting Unemployment level Unemployment rate Output Total GVA Relative productivity Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 60584.2 37707.4 189.8 60985.7 37915.7 212.1 61398.2 38090.1 192.3 61791.9 38235.9 177.2 62262.0 38482.6 227.6 62708.6 38810.0 220.8 63108.5 39068.6 170.8 63482.4 39294.1 140.8 63815.7 39517.5 95.8 64148.8 39721.5 90.0 64488.0 39928.5 90.0 64832.3 40129.5 90.0 65179.7 40332.6 90.0 66564.0 40843.6 90.0 68171.2 41744.7 90.0 69629.0 41713.4 90.0 27314.1 4084.8 31638.1 27449.0 27650.5 73.3 944.9 2.5 27478.8 4162.5 31863.9 27742.4 27981.7 73.8 863.7 2.3 27585.6 4166.5 31966.0 27799.4 28043.0 73.6 905.2 2.4 26990.4 4205.0 31412.3 27276.4 27517.9 72.0 1532.2 4.0 26637.4 4340.3 31193.3 27089.0 27334.5 71.0 1497.1 3.9 26586.8 4327.4 31111.2 27042.5 27280.0 70.3 1560.8 4.0 26578.2 4313.2 31104.6 27031.2 27265.5 69.8 1697.5 4.3 26835.7 4351.3 31400.2 27301.1 27534.5 70.0 1635.2 4.2 27195.4 4402.5 31811.1 27670.9 27903.6 70.6 1533.2 3.9 27523.9 4436.4 32173.4 27993.9 28226.1 71.0 1464.0 3.7 27784.3 4448.5 32446.0 28234.4 28466.3 71.3 1399.2 3.5 28012.7 4459.8 32685.7 28445.5 28677.1 71.4 1299.0 3.2 28175.6 4470.7 32859.5 28598.1 28829.5 71.4 1237.7 3.1 28505.4 4521.4 33240.0 28934.8 29165.3 71.4 1239.7 3.0 28823.1 4573.5 33609.8 29269.1 29498.5 70.6 1253.2 3.0 29147.6 4626.7 33987.5 29611.4 29839.9 71.5 1267.5 3.0 1154555 - 1188510 - 1187700 - 1131552 - 1150852 - 1165643 - 1186216 - 1221222 - 1257465 - 1293521 - 1327434 - 1359661 - 1392054 - 1520215 - 1687362 - 1865418 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Table 2: Key indicators annual percentage change* Demography Total population Working age population Total migration (000s) Labour market Total employees Self employed Total employment (jobs) Total employment (people) Residence employment Residence employment rate (pp) Net commuting (000s) Unemployment level Unemployment rate (pp) Output Total GVA Relative productivity (pp) Housing Households Housing stock 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 0.6 0.8 -73.2 0.7 0.6 22.3 0.7 0.5 -19.8 0.6 0.4 -15.1 0.8 0.6 50.4 0.7 0.9 -6.8 0.6 0.7 -50.0 0.6 0.6 -30.0 0.5 0.6 -45.0 0.5 0.5 -5.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.5 -0.2 9.6 0.2 0.6 1.9 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.5 -8.6 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 4.8 0.1 -2.2 0.9 -1.7 -1.9 -1.9 -1.7 69.3 1.6 -1.3 3.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.9 -2.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.8 4.3 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 8.8 0.3 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 -3.7 -0.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.5 -6.2 -0.3 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.4 -4.5 -0.2 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.2 -4.4 -0.2 0.8 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 -7.2 -0.3 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 -4.7 -0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.4 - 2.9 - -0.1 - -4.7 - 1.7 - 1.3 - 1.8 - 3.0 - 3.0 - 2.9 - 2.6 - 2.4 - 2.4 - 2.3 - 2.1 - 2.0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 * percentage otherwise noted but includes self-employed jobs. Total employment (people) Note: Total employees represents the number of jobs in an area. Total employment (jobs) also represents thechanges numberunless of jobs in an area, represents the number of people in employment in an area - i.e. it includes both full time and part time employees but people with more than one job are counted only once Summary tables – UK (continued) Table 3: Employees by sector Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 269.5 66.2 268.1 68.2 272.1 66.1 255.1 65.9 296.0 60.7 277.8 60.6 280.7 57.9 276.6 56.4 272.0 54.8 266.9 53.1 262.0 51.5 257.5 50.1 253.0 48.7 233.4 43.0 210.8 36.2 189.6 30.2 419.6 119.8 78.0 383.8 17.0 190.0 196.0 107.1 381.4 266.9 310.7 317.9 169.0 103.7 1297.5 1694.6 2877.3 1844.0 1589.8 1093.4 4665.7 1555.9 2416.4 3421.9 1461.2 27314.1 416.5 112.1 81.1 372.7 17.0 177.1 184.1 106.3 380.9 269.9 311.4 310.5 165.6 115.6 1301.1 1708.9 2879.3 1836.2 1603.4 1105.7 4848.6 1548.6 2421.7 3423.4 1444.8 27478.8 396.7 103.5 74.5 349.6 17.0 156.3 172.0 100.2 385.2 257.8 294.0 309.3 155.6 115.0 1296.0 1689.1 2912.5 1858.3 1589.0 1123.7 4962.3 1514.4 2436.7 3516.4 1462.2 27585.6 385.3 94.3 65.9 331.3 16.0 145.4 155.1 92.9 379.2 225.6 269.7 300.6 161.2 140.9 1256.2 1591.8 2852.0 1801.0 1538.1 1077.3 4747.6 1540.1 2459.1 3641.0 1401.8 26990.4 391.0 96.6 64.7 316.0 13.0 134.6 164.7 95.3 357.5 195.6 246.4 284.3 166.9 152.9 1175.0 1597.4 2783.9 1747.5 1474.3 1038.8 4716.8 1516.3 2434.5 3748.0 1368.8 26637.4 384.6 93.6 64.5 322.9 14.0 127.7 165.7 99.2 349.7 198.2 251.8 283.5 168.8 159.0 1155.5 1608.5 2739.2 1789.6 1503.2 1046.8 4692.6 1432.7 2398.1 3785.2 1414.0 26586.8 383.2 86.1 63.1 299.2 13.6 124.4 171.2 97.0 346.9 196.6 246.7 286.7 168.9 153.7 1183.1 1619.3 2763.5 1795.0 1517.5 1043.5 4772.5 1403.9 2371.0 3742.2 1390.8 26578.2 380.4 80.4 63.1 293.1 13.4 122.6 174.6 98.0 341.1 196.1 242.7 288.6 168.9 151.9 1207.6 1640.6 2805.8 1822.3 1542.0 1058.6 4986.5 1353.4 2338.1 3721.0 1412.0 26835.7 374.8 74.4 63.3 285.8 13.2 120.4 179.2 99.5 333.2 194.9 238.3 291.5 168.5 150.0 1237.1 1665.3 2854.1 1853.5 1572.9 1071.1 5246.2 1322.0 2306.8 3707.9 1444.6 27195.4 368.3 68.8 62.9 278.3 12.9 117.8 182.9 101.0 324.6 191.4 233.1 288.7 167.9 147.7 1261.0 1683.3 2891.0 1877.4 1602.4 1073.7 5482.7 1302.8 2291.8 3708.0 1483.4 27523.9 361.2 63.4 62.2 270.4 12.7 115.1 184.9 101.4 315.4 186.4 227.8 283.4 166.9 145.6 1281.6 1697.8 2922.0 1897.3 1626.5 1072.9 5659.0 1292.8 2284.6 3719.3 1520.2 27784.3 354.2 58.5 61.3 262.7 12.5 112.3 184.7 101.3 306.1 181.2 222.4 277.8 165.9 143.9 1302.2 1710.8 2950.6 1915.7 1643.7 1073.5 5810.8 1287.2 2280.9 3735.6 1549.2 28012.7 347.3 53.9 60.5 255.3 12.3 109.6 183.1 100.9 297.1 176.2 217.1 272.4 164.9 142.2 1316.5 1719.3 2971.7 1929.3 1654.0 1075.0 5922.6 1284.4 2280.3 3758.1 1570.0 28175.6 321.0 39.0 56.9 227.5 11.4 99.3 172.9 98.9 263.5 157.4 197.3 251.3 161.0 135.5 1354.8 1726.1 3008.5 1952.6 1668.6 1078.5 6189.1 1284.6 2292.1 3861.4 1619.4 28505.4 290.8 26.0 52.5 196.9 10.4 87.9 160.8 95.3 226.9 136.7 175.3 227.1 156.2 127.6 1398.4 1719.6 3029.0 1965.1 1671.8 1080.6 6527.7 1282.5 2302.1 3964.5 1664.3 28823.1 262.6 16.2 48.4 169.3 9.5 77.3 149.3 91.9 193.9 118.0 155.2 204.6 151.5 119.9 1442.9 1713.2 3049.5 1977.8 1675.1 1082.7 6846.8 1280.4 2312.1 4070.0 1709.9 29147.6 Table 4: Employees by sector - annual percentage changes Agriculture Extraction Manufacturing of: Food, drink & tobacco Textiles, clothing & leather Wood & wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil and nuclear Chemicals & pharmaceuticals Rubber & plastic products Other non-metals Metals Machinery & equipment nec Electrical & optical equipment Transport equipment Other manufacturing nec Electricity, gas & water Construction Distribution Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Financial intermediation Business services Public administration & defence Education Health Other personal services Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-22 avg pa 2022-27 avg pa 2027-32 avg pa 0.1 6.7 -0.5 3.1 1.5 -3.1 -6.2 -0.3 16.0 -7.9 -6.1 -0.1 1.1 -4.4 -1.5 -2.7 -1.6 -2.8 -1.9 -3.1 -1.8 -3.0 -1.7 -2.8 -1.7 -2.7 -1.9 -3.0 -2.0 -3.4 -2.1 -3.6 -3.1 -10.6 0.5 -3.6 0.0 -2.6 -5.0 -1.7 -1.8 -2.8 -4.8 -4.2 -3.1 6.1 3.8 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.4 4.9 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.4 1.0 -0.7 -6.4 3.9 -2.9 0.0 -6.8 -6.1 -0.7 -0.1 1.1 0.2 -2.3 -2.0 11.4 0.3 0.8 0.1 -0.4 0.9 1.1 3.9 -0.5 0.2 0.0 -1.1 0.6 -4.8 -7.6 -8.1 -6.2 0.0 -11.7 -6.6 -5.8 1.1 -4.5 -5.6 -0.4 -6.0 -0.5 -0.4 -1.2 1.2 1.2 -0.9 1.6 2.3 -2.2 0.6 2.7 1.2 0.4 -2.9 -8.9 -11.6 -5.2 -5.8 -7.0 -9.8 -7.3 -1.6 -12.5 -8.3 -2.8 3.6 22.6 -3.1 -5.8 -2.1 -3.1 -3.2 -4.1 -4.3 1.7 0.9 3.5 -4.1 -2.2 1.5 2.4 -1.9 -4.6 -18.7 -7.4 6.2 2.7 -5.7 -13.3 -8.6 -5.4 3.5 8.5 -6.5 0.4 -2.4 -3.0 -4.1 -3.6 -0.6 -1.5 -1.0 2.9 -2.4 -1.3 -1.6 -3.1 -0.2 2.2 7.6 -5.1 0.6 4.0 -2.2 1.3 2.2 -0.3 1.2 3.9 -1.7 0.7 -1.6 2.4 2.0 0.8 -0.5 -5.5 -1.5 1.0 3.3 -0.2 -0.4 -8.1 -2.2 -7.3 -3.1 -2.6 3.4 -2.2 -0.8 -0.8 -2.0 1.1 0.0 -3.3 2.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 1.0 -0.3 1.7 -2.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.6 0.0 -0.7 -6.6 -0.1 -2.1 -1.4 -1.4 2.0 1.1 -1.7 -0.3 -1.6 0.6 0.0 -1.2 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 4.5 -3.6 -1.4 -0.6 1.5 1.0 -1.5 -7.4 0.4 -2.5 -1.7 -1.8 2.6 1.5 -2.3 -0.6 -1.8 1.0 -0.3 -1.2 2.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.2 5.2 -2.3 -1.3 -0.4 2.3 1.3 -1.7 -7.6 -0.7 -2.6 -1.8 -2.1 2.1 1.5 -2.6 -1.8 -2.1 -0.9 -0.4 -1.5 1.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.9 0.2 4.5 -1.5 -0.7 0.0 2.7 1.2 -1.9 -7.8 -1.1 -2.8 -1.8 -2.3 1.1 0.5 -2.8 -2.6 -2.3 -1.8 -0.6 -1.4 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.5 -0.1 3.2 -0.8 -0.3 0.3 2.5 0.9 -1.9 -7.8 -1.4 -2.8 -1.8 -2.4 -0.1 -0.2 -3.0 -2.8 -2.4 -2.0 -0.6 -1.2 1.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.1 2.7 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 1.9 0.8 -1.9 -7.8 -1.4 -2.8 -1.8 -2.4 -0.9 -0.4 -3.0 -2.8 -2.4 -2.0 -0.6 -1.2 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.9 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.6 -1.9 -7.8 -1.5 -2.8 -1.8 -2.4 -1.3 -0.5 -3.0 -2.8 -2.4 -2.0 -0.6 -1.2 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 -2.0 -7.8 -1.6 -2.8 -1.8 -2.4 -1.4 -0.7 -3.0 -2.8 -2.3 -2.0 -0.6 -1.2 0.6 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 -2.0 -8.8 -1.6 -3.0 -1.8 -2.5 -1.5 -0.7 -3.1 -2.9 -2.4 -2.1 -0.6 -1.2 0.6 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 Annex B: Variables in GMFM The GMFM Technical Note provides more details on the coverage of GMFM, but the following slide provides a summary of most of the variables contained within the model. Variables in GMFM Demography (Labour market continued) ■ Net commuting ■ Population – By occupation 9 major groups – Total and working age (15-59/64) ■ Unemployment/rate – By 5-year age band, male/female ■ Occupations/rates – Ethnic minority population – Workplace/residence based ■ Migration – By 26 minor occupation groups – Total and working age (15-59/64) ■ Skills – 5 year age bands, male/female – NVQ levels 0 – 4+ – Domestic and international – inflows, outflows and net ■ Births and deaths Economy ■ GVA (£m, 2006 prices) – Male/female – 61 sectors ■ Natural increase ■ Relative productivity (NW = 100) Labour market – 25 sectors ■ Employee jobs ■ Average earnings – Full time/part time – 14 sectors – 24 sectors – Male/female – 14 sectors ■ Consumer expenditure – 59 sectors ■ Household income ■ Self-employed jobs – 8 sectors – male/female totals – People based – 8 sectors ■ Total employment Housing ■ House prices (£000s, indexed 1990=100) ■ Housing stock – Jobs- and people-based – By tenure – 9 sectors – Demolitions and completions ■ Resident employment/rate ■ Households – Occupancy rates in 5 year age bands – Households by tenure Contact info: Alan Wilson Director of Consulting Services, Oxford Economics 01865 268904 [email protected] Neil Gibson Director of Regional Services, Oxford Economics 02892 660669 07803 728994 [email protected] Kerry Houston Head of Regional Model Development 02892 660669 [email protected] Helen McDermott Senior Economist 02892 660669 [email protected]