Transcript Bridging the Gap Between Seasonal Climate Forecasts and

Bridging the Gap Between
Seasonal Climate Forecasts and
Decisionmakers in Agriculture
ACIAR-PCARRD/PAGASA-PIDS-LSU/
SARDI-NSWDPI/US
PROJECT LAUNCH
July 27, 2005, 9:00 a.m. - 12:00 noon
Camellia-Dahlia Room, Dusit Hotel Nikko
Makati City
Plan of Activities



Seasonal Climate Forecasting
Farm and Policy Level Case Studies
Dissemination
Plan of Activities
Seasonal Climate Forecasting

Improving the capacity of PAGASA
to develop and deliver SCF



Document status of climate data in
the Philippines and update database
in RAINMAN
Prepare seasonal climate forecasts to
be used in the farm level and policy
level studies
Produce information package re SCF
Plan of Activities
Valuing SCF

Distilling
key
practical
and
methodological
features
of
economic
and
psychological
approaches to valuing SCF

Compare
the
strengths
and
weaknesses of different approaches
to valuing SCF
Plan of Activities
Case Studies
3. Estimating the potential economic
value of SCF for farm level and policy
level case studies
a. Expected returns from decisions based on
knowledge of average rainfall conditions
will be compared with expected returns
from
decisions
based
on
rainfall
probabilities from SCF.
b. Compare alternative methods in terms of
ease
of
use,
sensitivity
to
input
assumptions and conclusions regarding
potential value of SCF.
Sites for the Farm Level Case Studies
Site
Impact of
ENSO
Rainfed corn in
Isabela Province
* Top cornproducing province
Medium
impact
Rainfed corn in
Leyte Province
Rainfed corn in
Bukidnon Province
* Second top cornproducing province
Availability of data
Adequate rainfall data.
Production data at provincial
level.
High impact Rainfall data is okay.
Production data at provincial
level.
Secondary data on biophysical
and socioeconomic
characteristics for Matalom.
Very high
impact
Rainfall data is okay.
Production data at provincial
level.
Secondary data on biophysical
and socioeconomic
characteristics.
Plan of Activities
Farm Level Case Studies


The
studies
will
provide
information about how farmers
and other decision makers use
SCF to make real decisions.
They will also be used to estimate
the value of SCF.
Plan of Activities
Policy Case Study

The policy case study will show the
potential economic value of SCF to
policy level decisions in the
Philippines


Focuses on procurement and storage
of rice
NFA responsible for stabilization of
grains supply and prices, both at the
farmgate and consumer levels
Plan of Activities
Policy Case Study


Philippines net importer of rice
Grain storage and price decisions are
based on expected total grain
production, where total production is
projected using statistical forecast
based on expected harvested areas
and potential yield per hectare.
Volume of Rice Imports
(in metric tons)
Philippines, 1980 - 2005
Sources:
Volume of Imports: NFA
ENSO Years: Dr. Wilfredo
David’s presentation on ENSO
3,500,000
3,250,000
3,000,000
2,750,000
2,500,000
2,250,000
2,000,000
1,750,000
1,500,000
1,250,000
1,000,000
750,000
500,000
250,000
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
ENSO Year
1992
1994
Rice
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Plan of Activities
Policy Case Study


This study will explore the links between
SCF and grain storage policy and evaluate
its impact in terms of efficient grain
storage and pricing decisions at the
national and local levels.
This study will examine the impact of
ENSO on the price and regional supply or
rice purchased by the Philippines, given
that ENSO has an impact across Asia.
Plan of Activities
Actual and Potential Uses of SCF
4. Identifying factors leading to a gap
between actual and potential values of
SCF
a. Describe how SCF are currently being used
in the case study areas
b. Estimate the actual value of SCF to farm
and policy level decisions in the Philippines
c. Assess reasons for the divergence in
actual and potential values
Plan of Activities
Dissemination
5. Developing
and
implementing
strategies to better match forecasts
with decisionmakers’ needs
a. How to present SCF information to farmers
b. How to educate decisionmakers in the use
of SCF technologies
Dissemination Strategies
What are the information to be
disseminated?

Basic concepts about weather/climate

various climate phenomena/events, risks
involved, the science of seasonal climate
forecasts, etc.

Regular weather/climate
outlook/forecasts

Results of project’s various
research/case studies/surveys
Dissemination Strategies
Who are our target
beneficiaries/users?
Basically, the ones making decisions
in the and affecting the agriculture
sector:

Farmers - at the farm level

Policymakers – both at the
national/macro level and the local level
Dissemination Strategies
How do we reach them?

IEC type of activities – seminars, fora,
lectures, handouts/publications
thru
various conduits such as:




LGUs
NGOs
Research centers/groups especially those
working with farmers
Media, especially local media (provincial
radio-television stations, local newspapers
and
media
groups),
the
PIA
and
DevComNet
Dissemination Strategies
How do we reach them?

Dialogues with various groups
(especially one case studies and
surveys)



Farmers groups
Community leaders/associations
Leagues of barangays, municipalities/cities
and provinces

Media

Internet
Dissemination Strategies
What have we done so far?

Pulong Saliksikan at PIDS on basic
climate concepts and their implications
(with government technical and policy
level representatives)

Seminar-workshop
at
Leyte
State
University
(with
provincial
and
municipal agriculturists, and members
of academe in the region)

Quarterly
PAGASA
Climate
Outlook
Fora
of
Dissemination Strategies
What have we done so far?

Handouts on basic concepts (for media,
LGUs, NGOs)

This project launch to introduce the
project and to solicit your interest
support and feedback

Project website detailing the project
description, objectives and progress of
work
URL is: http://dirp3.pids.gov.ph/ACIAR