“Orientation Forum on Climate Concepts and Seasonal Climate Forecasts” Haus Malibu, Malaybalay, Bukidnon December 1, 2005

PROJECT BACKGROUND

FLAVIANA D. HILARIO,Ph.D.

Chief, Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch PAGASA/DOST

Project Title : BRIDGING THE GAP BETWEEN SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS (SCF) AND DECISION MAKERS IN AGRICULTURE Funding Agency :

Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR)

Proposed Project Duration :

1 January 2005 – 31 December 2008 (4 years)

Project Coordinators: Australia : ACIAR Philippines : Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Resources Research and Development

(PCARRD)

IMPLEMENTING AGENCIES PHILIPPINES: 1.

PAGASA – Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration 2.

LSU – Leyte State University 3. PIDS – Philippine Institute For Developmental Studies AUSTRALIA: 1. South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI) 2. New South Wales Department of Primary Industries (NSW DPI) 3. University of Sydney

Climate science issuing Forecasts

Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture

Climate science making SCF

Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture In both the Philippines, Australia there is a flow of information between climate science and decision makers. And this flow will continue

without

this ACIAR project.

Climate science making SCF

Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture However we believe that there is a gap between what climate science has to offer and what decision makers are using. Internationally we have found that making climate science useful for decision making has proven to be more difficult than first thought.

Climate science making SCF

Our study area is the interaction Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture This project is not a climate science project, nor is it a detailed study of agricultural systems – we are looking at how climate science can be used for better decisions in agricultural systems

Climate science making SCF

Our study area is the interaction Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture Our aim is to bridge the gap What we learn will be useful in other parts of the world and for other areas in Philippines and Australia where science is being used for decision making

5 objectives

• To improve the capacity of PAGASA to

develop and deliver SCF

Philippines for the case study regions of the • To

distil

key practical and methodological features of economic and psychological approaches to valuing SCF • To

estimate the potential

economic value of SCF for farm level and policy, or industry level, case studies in the Philippines and Australia.

• • To

identify

those factors leading to a

gap between actual and potential

values of SCF

Develop and implement strategies

to better match forecasts with decision maker’s needs

5 Objectives

• Improve forecasts • Review frameworks to value SCF • Apply desktop frameworks to case studies • Find gaps between actual and potential value from case studies through field work • Bridge the gaps

PAGASA Flow of SCF PIDS LSU PAGASA AGROMET STN & Agricultural offices End user

CASE STUDY REGIONS ARE RICE AND CORN PRODUCTION AREAS IN THE PHILIPPINES : ISABELA, LEYTE AND BUKIDNON AND CEBU