Low-carbon growth in Brazil?

Gilberto Câmara National Institute for Space Research

PRODES: Clear-cut deforestation mapping

~230 scenes Landsat/year

Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas

DETER: Real -time Deforestation Monitoring

15-day alerts of newly deforested large areas

International credibility helps…

“Today, Brazil’s monitoring system is the envy of the world. INPE has its own remote sensing satellite, a joint effort with China, that allows it to publish yearly totals of deforested land that scientists regard as reliable.”

TerraAmazon

Transparency builds governance

Transparency builds governance

500.000 registrations 46 million protests

Myth 1: The impact of deforestation

Deforestation is responsible for 20% of global carbon emissions (Sir David King) How does he know?

Myth 1: The impact of deforestation

Brazil (1990s): 22.000 km 2 average - about 8% of CO2 emissions Brazil (2005-2010 est): 12.000 km 2 - about 5% of CO2 emissions

Myth 2: High cost of avoiding deforestation

Avoided deforestation costs 30 € per tCO 2 Does it really?

Myth 2: The high cost of avoiding deforestation

50.000 km 2 of avoided deforestation from 2005-2008 How much did it cost?

Myth 2: High cost of avoiding deforestation

cost of monitoring and enforcement (US$ 100 M-year) Brazil grew on 2005 2008 at 3.5% average

Myth 2: High cost of avoiding deforestation

source: Imazon graphics: Mongabay Avoiding deforestation in Amazonia has a negative cost

Myth 3: REDD is necessary and beneficial

Money to whom?

migrant workers?

big farmers? I need my SUV

REDD may induce leakages: counterproductive ALAP BR 319 Estradas pavimentadas em 2010 Estradas não pavimentadas Rios principais Protection areas Differences: Sustainable areas Less: More: 0.0

0.0

-0.50

0.10

Myth 4: Developed countries are willing to do technology transfer

E2V CCD device CBERS-3 satellite “E2V will no longer sell CCDs to Brazil because we are committed to ITAR regime” (2008)

Action Item 2: Brazil

´

s targets for deforestation Achieving targets = good governance + market incentives

Action Item 2: Biofuels need fair markets

Action Item 3: Markets have a positive rôle

Action Item 4: Global Forest Information System

National, int ´ l agencies

Open Globes Angola Congo DR OpenForestMap WikiForest

Scientists, Citizens, Markets

Data: INPE

´

s vision for the future

A constellation of satellites and sensors will provide free earth observation data for all countries on Earth

CBERS as a global satellite

CBERS ground stations will cover most of the Earth’s land mass between 30 0 N and 30 0 S

“A few satellites can cover the entire globe, but there needs to be a system in place to ensure their images are readily available to everyone who needs them. Brazil has set an important precedent by making its Earth-observation data available, and the rest of the world should follow suit.”