FAPESP Climate Change Program Workshop 2011 Land Use Change in Amazonia: Institutional analysis and modeling at multiple temporal and spatial scales Gilberto Câmara, Ana Aguiar, Roberto Araújo, Patrícia Pinho, Luciano Dutra, Corina Freitas, Sidnei Sant’Anna, Leila Fonseca, Isabel Escada, Silvana Amaral, Pedro Andrade-Neto (Earth System Science Centre, INPE)

source: Global Land Project Science Plan (IGBP)

Nature, 29 July 2010

Nature, 29 July 2010

Brazil is the world’s current largest experiment on land change and its effects: will it also happen elsewhere?

Today’s questions about Brazil could be tomorrow’s questions for other countries

Where will large-scale land change take place?

source: The Economist

Forests and food production: potential conflicts

Impact of land change in Brazil’s emissions

“By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestation by 80% relative to 2005.” (pres. Lula in Copenhagen COP-15)

Market impact of deforestation reduction in Brazil Avoided def Brazil 2005-2020 4,9 Gt CO2eq EU-15 reduction 2005-2020 20% of 1990 levels 7,7 Gt CO2eq From

2005 to 2020, avoided deforestation by Brazil would be 2/3 of the total proposed EU-15 cuts

What caused the reduction of deforestation in Amazonia?

Markets? Credit crunch? Coercion? Institutional arrangments?

Policing actions: illegal wood seizure 50% of operations in 2% of the area

Markets have a positive rôle

Working hypothesis

The Brazilian Amazon has different institutional arrangements that influence the spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation.

Tragedy of the Commons?

Everybody ’ s property is nobody ’ s property (Hardin)

Is the tragedy of the commons inevitable?

Experiments show that cooperation emerges interactions exist if virtuous source: Novak, May and Sigmund (Scientific American, 1995)

Common pool resources (Elinor Ostrom)

The ultimate common pool resource

Governing the commons: institutional arrangments

[Ostrom, Science, 2005]

Elinor Ostrom on governing the commons

“ Neither the state nor the market is uniformly successful in enabling individuals to sustain long-term, productive use of natural resource systems.

”

What are institutional arrangements?

International agencies and agreements International National Govt.

National NGOs Regional Local and state Govts.

Sub-regional NGOs Local organizations Local Araújo and Aguiar , forthcoming Agreements between private and public organizations about rules of use of common pool resources.

Institutional analysis in Amazonia

Identify different agents and try to model their actions Field work Land change patterns Urban networks Land change models

Amazonia is a mosaic of land units

Terras Indígenas UC Proteção Integral PA (Projeto de Assentamento) PAE (Proj. Assentamento Agro-extrativista) PDS (Projeto de Desenvolvimento Sustentável) PAC (Projeto de Assentamento Coletivo)

Current situation in Amazonia

Tension between different ways of access to market and natural resources, land tenure regimes (private and public/collective) and political forces.

Araújo e Aguiar (forthcoming)

INPE/PRODES 2005: Deforestation Forest Non-forest vegeration Clouds/no data

Brazilian Amazonia

Baixo Amazonas Transamazônica PA 279 BR 163 Pará State

Lower Amazonas and Transamazônica

INCRA: 207 Land Settlements SFB: National forests concession and common land management

Mapping trajectories of change

Mapas de Padrões Trajetórias Érika Saito 2006

Landscape model: different rules for two main types of agents

Beef and milk market chain model Land use change model Small farmers Medium and large farmers Landscape metrics model Pasture degradation model

Several workshops to define model rules and variables

Landscape model: different rules of behavior at different partitions which also change in time

SÃO FÉLIX DO XINGU - 2006 FRONT FRENTE MIDDLE MEIO BACK RETAGUARDA Forest Deforest River Not Forest

Modeling results 97 to 2006 Observed 97 to 2006