THE SOUTH CHINA SEA : SEPARATING FACT FROM FICTION

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Transcript THE SOUTH CHINA SEA : SEPARATING FACT FROM FICTION

THE SOUTH CHINA SEA :
SEPARATING FACT FROM FANCY
FOUNTAIN OF MISINFORMATION
*THE US PIVOT TO ASIA IS
ENHANCING SECURITY AND STABILITY
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
BUT CHINA SEES IT AS CONTAINMENT
AND EMBOLDENING THE PHILIPPINES
AND VIETNAM TO CONFRONT IT
WHETHER CORRECT OR NOT THE
PIVOT HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY
*CHINA’S ASSERTIVENESS
REGARDING ITS MARITIME CLAIMS
HAS CREATED INSTABILITY IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA
BUT CHINA SEES THE SITUATION
MORE LIKE THIS
2002 DECLARATION ON CONDUCT
• 1.EXERCISE SELF-RESTRAINT
• 2. PARTIES WILL RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES
THROUGH FRIENDLY CONSULTATIONS AND
NEGOTIATIONS BY SOVEREIGN STATES
DIRECTLY CONCERNED
*CHINA’S CLAIMS IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA ARE ILLEGITIMATE AND
EVEN ABSURD
CONFLICTING SOVEREIGNTY CLAIMS
TO ROCKS AND ISLANDS
OVERLAPPING CLAIMS TO MARITIME
ZONES
*THE US IS NEUTRAL REGARDING
CLAIMS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
• PERHAPS NEUTRAL ON SOVEREIGNTY
CLAIMS
•
•
•
•
NOT NEUTRAL ON MARITIME CLAIMS
ALL CLAIMS MUST BE BASED ON UNCLOS
ALL CLAIMS MUST BE FROM LAND
THE CLAIMS SHOULD BE NEGOTIATED
BETWEEN ASEAN AND CHINA
*CHINA’S CLAIMS ARE A THREAT TO
FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION
• CHINA HAS NOT THREATENED THE FREEDOM
OF NAVIGATION OF COMMERCIAL VESSELS
• IT DOES OBJECT TO INVASIVE, ACTIVE
PROBING, TICKLING, INTERFERENCE WITH
COMMUNICATIONS AND WHAT IT
CONSIDERS A THREAT OF USE OF FORCE AND
ABUSE OF THE MARINE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
CONSENT REGIME BY US NAVAL VESSELS AND
AIRCRAFT
Article 258 - Deployment and use
• THE DEPLOYMENT AND USE OF ANY TYPE OF
SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH INSTALLATIONS OR
EQUIPMENT IN ANY AREA OF THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT SHALL BE SUBJECT TO THE
SAME CONDITIONS AS ARE PRESCRIBED IN
THIS CONVENTION FOR THE CONDUCT OF
MARINE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH IN ANY SUCH
AREA.
P8A POSEIDON
The P-8 conducts anti-submarine
warfare (ASW), anti-surface warfare (ASUW),
and shipping interdiction, along with
an electronic signals intelligence (ELINT) role.
This involves carrying torpedoes, depth
charges, SLAM-ER missiles, Harpoon anti-ship
missiles, and other weapons. It is able to drop
and monitor sonobuoys. It is designed to
operate in conjunction with the Northrop
Grumman MQ-4C Triton Broad Area
Maritime Surveillance drone
THE IMPECCABLE
The mission of Impeccable is to directly
support the Navy by using SURTASS passive
and active low frequency sonar arrays to
detect and track undersea threats.
*ASEAN IS UNITED AGAINST
CHINA AND IN WELCOMING THE
US MILITARY PRESENCE
*THE US AND CHINA ARE BUILDING A NEW
GREAT POWER RELATIONSHIP TO AVOID THE
USUAL CONFLICT BETWEEN A RISING POWER
AND AN ESTABLISHED ONE
THIS WILL MITIGATE CONFLICT IN ASIA AND
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
UNLIKELY
• THE US WANTS CHINA TO PLAY BY “THE RULES”
• BUT CHINA AND THE US DON’T AGREE ON MANY RULES,
NORMS AND DIRECTIONS OF GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS
• CHINA EXPECTS TO BE TREATED AS AN EQUAL AT LEAST IN
ASIA AND WITH ‘RESPECT’ FOR ITS CORE INTERESTS
PERHAPS INCLUDING ITS CLAIMS AND INFLUENCE IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA
• THE US HAS SHOWN NO EVIDENCE OR EVEN INCLINATION
THAT IT IS PREPARED TO SHARE POWER OR ACCEPT
CHINA AS AN EQUAL
• THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS CLASH IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA
WHAT SHOULD THE US DO?
NO SHORTAGE OF ADVICE AND
PROPOSALS
• HAS TRIED TO UNIFY ASEAN AGAINST CHINA
• HAS TRIED TO STEM CHINA’S ASSERTIVENESS
• HAS TRIED TO ENHANCE STABILITY IN THE
SOUTH CHINA
• HAS PROPOSED A ‘FREEZE’ ON UNILATERAL
ACTIVITIES
• ALL HAVE FAILED
THE US NEEDS TO GET OUT AHEAD OF THE
US-CHINA RIVALRY
DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF RELATIONSHIP IT
WANTS AND IS REALISTICALLY POSSIBLE
AND ACCEPTABLE TO CHINA,US ALLIES
AND ITS DOMESTIC POLITY ,
AND FIGURE OUT HOW TO ACHIEVE IT
ONCE DECIDED IT MUST USE AN ALL OF
GOVERNMENT APPROACH
RIGHT NOW THERE ARE TOO MANY
MIXED SIGNALS
I SEE POLITICAL STORM CLOUDS ON
THE HORIZON