Transcript Document

ELECTION 2012
WHAT HAPPENED, WHAT’S NEXT, AND WHAT
POLITICAL SCIENCE CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
OUR UNDERSTANDING OF NATIONAL POLITICS
R. Scott Crichlow, Chair of the Department of
Political Science
West Virginia University
Outline
• National Election Results
• Future of the Staffing of the Obama
Administration
• Future of Obama Administration Foreign
Policy
• For Each I Will Discuss What Political
Science Can Contribute to Our Knowledge
of These Topics
National Vote for President
Democratic Pres.
Candidate
2012 50.8% Obama
2008 52.9% Obama
2004 48.3% Kerry
Republican
Pres. Candidate
47.4% Romney
45.6% McCain
50.7% Bush
Who Got It Right?
• Political scientists and numbers wonks > pundits.
• Models by Alan Abramowitz (Time for Change model),
Drew Linzer (Votamatic website), Sam Wang (Princeton
Election Consortium website), and Nate Silver (the New
York Times’ FiveThirtyEight) performed well.
• These models are mostly based on things we knew
months ago (presidential approval rate in June, mid-fourth
year national growth rate, how long the leading power had
been in power).
Congressional Shifts
• US Senate – Democratic caucus gains 2 seats (to 55
D – 45 R)
• US House – Democratic caucus gains 8 seats (to 234
R – 201 D)
• Democrats won more popular votes in both sets of
elections (House stays Republican due to
gerrymandering and the spatial distribution of voters).
• Record number of women in the Senate, though
Republican congressional caucuses remain over
90% male.
State Initiatives
• Big wins for same-sex marriage at the ballot box
(MD, ME, WA, MN)
• Wins for the recreational use of marijuana (CO,
WA) and also for medicinal use (MA)
• California voters voted for higher sales taxes (for
four years) and taxes on those earning over
$250,000 (for seven years) to help its budget
problems and protect education spending
What Can Political Science Tell Us About
Voting Patterns?
• Income matters both in terms of vote preference (those
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making under $50,000 annually are very strongly
Democratic while those making over $100,000 are largely,
but not as strongly, Republican) and in terms of voter
turnout (wealthier Americans are more likely to vote).
Age matters (younger voters began to shift to Democrats
in 1996, but 2008 & 2012 they gave Obama enormous
support).
Race matters (both of the voters, and of the candidates).
People tend to vote retrospectively (and on the economy)
so the attributes of challengers are likely overstated by
the media.
How people take in and process campaign information.
What’s Largely Misunderstood?
• Independents are largely a myth – and to the degree they
exist, they are very-low information voters.
• The concept of “social issues” as a cohesive whole is
dubious. Opinions about the legality of access to abortion
have been highly stable, while opinions about whether or
not LGBT Americans should have equal rights have
changed greatly in the last 15 years.
• High-income Americans are more likely to vote on
cultural/social issues, while lower-income Americans are
more likely to vote on economic concerns (and more likely
to vote Democratic). This variation in high-income voters
heavily shapes the red/blue state divide.
What’s Next?
• An economic deal (taxes and entitlements)
• Immigration policy
• Nominating/confirming second-term officials
• Foreign policy
New Leadership in the Administration
• Likely turnover at all the top 4 cabinet offices: State,
Treasury, Defense, Justice; Likely turnover at White
House Chief of Staff; Definite turnover at CIA; Possible
turnover of National Security Advisor
• Possible nominees: Susan Rice (State or NSC), John
Kerry (State or Defense), Tom Donilon (State or Defense),
Jack Lew (Treasury), John Brennan (CIA)
• Expect a mix of largely status quo appointments with a
few new faces
• Turnover may not be simultaneous
Does This Change Matter? How?
• Absolutely.
• Different appointees, even of the same party, have
different beliefs & priorities. Some are more effective at
intra-administration politics than others. Some will be
closer to the president than others. This president listens
to his advisors – whether or not he eventually adopts their
views. They make many decisions themselves.
• The change of team may affect policy preferences. It
could also affect the decision-making style (which could in
turn affect policy preferences.
• Keep in mind there’s been a lot of stability in this
administration (apart from Chief of Staff) – that will change
in a big way.
What Can Political Science Tell Us
About This?
• We see that cabinet members bring their own preferences
to their jobs – and argue for them.
• They are not necessarily “captured” by their agency.
• The decision making processes of an administration
matter a great deal in terms of both 1) the substance of
policy that is adopted and 2) whether or not the policy is
likely to be successful.
• While there are better and worse decision-making
processes, this turns, to a degree, on having a decisionmaking structure that fits with the strengths, weaknesses,
and personality of the president.
Foreign Policy Concerns
• Ending the war in Afghanistan
• International economic agreements (the Trans-Pacific
partnership, service-sector deals, closer ties with Europe,
India, and China)
• Flashpoints
• A slight shift to (non-Southwest) Asia in emphasis
What Can Political Science Tell Us About
These Priorities?
• Economic concerns often drive politics, whether foreign or
domestic.
• President’s tend to keep high-profile promises. Their
personal policy preferences can also affect the direction of
policy.
• Institutional, constructivist and liberal theories would all
predict further building the free-trade regime through
existing institutions.
• Materialist theories, whether military or economicoriented, would expect a growing focus on Asia.
How Can You Use a Political Science Approach
to Understand National and World Politics?
• Simple, read political science sites, or journalists
who incorporate political science research into
their work.
• Recommendations: FiveThirtyEight (the New York
Times), Wonkblog (the Washington Post), the
Monkey Cage, Mischiefs of Faction, a Plain Blog
About Politics – or even our Department’s blog.