Making Sense of the Jewish Vote March 2012

Historical Perspective: Jewish Vote in Presidential Elections

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Exit polls have reported that the Democratic presidential candidate has received between 64 and 80 percent of the Jewish vote since 1972 Year 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Democrat 65 71 45 67 64 80 78 79 74 78 % of Jewish Vote Republican 35 27 39 31 35 11 16 19 25 22 Independent 2 14 9 3 1

Source: Exit poll data

GBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Figure 1

2010 Mid-Term Election Results

% Democrat / % Republican Jewish Unmarried women Hispanics Voters under 30 years-old Catholics Protestants White Evangelicals Other (religion) None (religion)

Source: 2010 exit polls, Democracy Corps election night poll , J Street election night poll

GBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote 66 / 31 61 / 38 60 / 38 55 / 42 44 / 54 38 / 59 19 / 77 74 / 24 68 / 30 Figure 2

New Jersey Florida Pennsylvania New York Nevada Ohio

Impact of the Jewish Vote

Jewish Population % 3 2 7 4 4 3 2008 Vote Results (Obama/McCain) 57 / 42 51 / 48 55 / 44 63 / 36 55 / 43 52 / 47

Source: 2008 exit polls

GBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Figure 3

Impact of the Jewish Vote: Florida Case Study 2008 Florida Election Results Obama McCain Non-Jewish Voters (96% of FL voters) 50 49 Jewish Voters (4% of FL voters) = Total Vote Results 51 78 22 48 How Jewish Vote Could Change Florida Result Obama Republican Non-Jewish Voters (96% of FL voters) 50 49 Jewish Voters (4% of FL voters) = 37 63 “Result” 49 50

Source: 2008 exit polls show Jews were 4 percent of FL vote; there was no Jewish result reported in FL , 78-22 result cited here is the national Jewish result in the 2008 exit polls

GBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Figure 4

Understanding Recent Data and Trends: Jewish Party Identification

80 70 60 50

66 72 66 63

40 30

31

20 10

24 20 26

0 2007

Source: Pew Research Center

GBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote

2008 % Democratic 2009 % Republican 2010

65 29

2011

Figure 5

Head-to-Head Match-Ups: Base Constituencies Underperform Months Before Elections Jewish Voters

Gallup May 2008 Gallup September 2008 Gallup October 2008 Exit Poll

Hispanic Voters

Gallup June 2008 Exit Polls

2008 Presidential Election Obama McCain

61 69 74 78 32 25 25 22 59 67 29 31

Source: J Street poll July 2008, Gallup poll May 2008-October 2008, Exit polls

GBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Figure 6

What Drives the Jewish Vote: Shared Values Gallup Poll: Ideology by Religion January 2010 Jews Catholics Protestants/other Christians No religion/atheist/agnostic % Liberal / % Conservative 43 / 20 19 / 39 16 / 46 39 / 19 All Americans Jews Catholics Protestants Mormons No religion Gallup Poll: American Jews Oppose War February 2007 % War a mistake / % War not a mistake 52 / 44 77 / 21 53 / 46 48 / 49 27 / 72 66 / 33 GBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Figure 7

What Drives the Jewish Vote: Intense Jewish Opposition toward Republicans

30 20 10 0

We would like you to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a very warm, favorable feeling; zero meaning a very cold, unfavorable feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold

80 70

73 74

60 50

66 56 67 60 66 49

40

22 34 33 18 16 16 12 10

Bill Clinton Barack Obama Democratic Party Republican Party Favorable George W.

Bush Unfavorable Mitt Romney Tea Party Movement Glenn Beck

Source: J Street National Survey of American Jews July 2011

GBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Figure 8

What Drives the Jewish Vote: Vote Priorities Below is a list of issues facing our country today. Please mark which two of these issues are the most important for you in deciding your vote for Congress in November.

The economy Health care The deficit and govt spending Social Security and Medicare Taxes Terrorism and national security Education Israel The environment Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Illegal immigration Energy

Source: J Street National Election Night Survey of American Jews November 2010

GBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Top 2 Issues 62 7 6 6 4 31 18 16 14 13 12 7 Figure 9

High and Comparable Level of Return Donors for Obama and Republicans

Thinking about the 2012 Presidential election, will you make a financial contribution to… Barack Obama's campaign? (Among those who contributed to Obama’s campaign) a Republican candidate's campaign? (Among those who contributed to McCain’s campaign)

100 80 60

82

40 20 0 Definitely/Probably/Already Have Contributed to Obama's Campaign

GBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote 80

Definitely/Probably/Already Have Contributed to a Republican's Campaign

Figure 10

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