Transcript Document

American Association of
School Administrators
July 17th, 2012
An overview of recent public opinion data
on the 2012 election and education
Celinda Lake
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
LakeResearch.com
202.776.9066
Landscape of the Presidential Election
• Recent polling has shown that the race is tight, but Obama holds slight
leads in traditional swing states like Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania,
produced in part by defining Romney on the economy.
• The race is polarized by gender, age, and race.
• While interest in the election is down from 2008, it is higher than in every
other election since 1992.
• In the last 20 years, only the hyper-polarized election of 2004 has
featured fewer swing voters at this point in the campaign, largely due to
a motivated Republican base determined to defeat President Obama.
• Obama has outspent Romney thus far, and negative ads attacking
Romney’s business records appear to have had an impact; however
Romney has significantly closed the gap, outraising Obama in May and
June.
2
Education and the Election
• Voters generally say that education is an important priority,
though it falls behind first-tier issues like jobs and the economy.
• Education is significantly more important than in 2010, due in
part to state budget cuts.
• Education is also a strong component of an economic plan.
• Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters like women,
minorities, and Millennials are the most likely to value
education as a voting issue.
3
Education and the Election (continued)
• Voters in swing states, especially those with a postgraduate degree,
say improving education is vital to getting America’s economy back
on track.
• More than one in three Americans say the cost of a college education
is an extremely important economic issue, rating it higher than muchtalked-about issues like home foreclosures, economic inequality, and
government regulations.
• For blue collar and Latino voters, it’s important to also talk about K-12
and post-high school job training.
• A clear majority of Americans say President Obama would do a better
job than Mitt Romney on the cost of a college education (54% to 39%)
and improving education in general (53% to 27%).
4
Education Priorities
• When given a choice, voters are more likely to prefer that education
be handled on a local level, but they see a role today for everyone.
• Although voters express low confidence in public schools, they rate
their local schools much higher than schools nationwide.
• Votes are more likely to say it is very important for their state
government to focus on education than the federal government,
especially whites and independents.
• Voters hold strong positive associations with political candidates who
make education a top priority, identifying them as “concerned about
the future” and “in touch with average families.”
5
Education Priorities (continued)
• The most politically popular messages on education focus on using
tax credits to make education more affordable.
• Quality teachers and reduced class sizes are also important. Merit pay
for teachers and public funding for charter or private schools are the
least popular.
• Education is the top priority to juxtapose against tax breaks for the
wealthy.
• Framing cuts as the wrong priorities and choices rather than just
“belt-tightening” is key.
6
Current Electoral Environment
With less than four months until
Election Day, Obama and Romney are
in a tight race.
The latest polling gives Obama a narrow lead over Romney.
8
From Real Clear Politics.
Margin
0
The electorate is
highly polarized,
especially by age
and race. Look for
Obama to attack
Romney on Social
Security to make
gains among
seniors, and for
Romney to focus on
the unemployment
rate among
Millennials to cut
his margins there.
7
8
17
1
20
18
59
71
10
52
81
14
80
9
Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted by telephone July 5 to 8, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,003
adults, including landline and cell phone-only respondents. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of
plus or minus four percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.
Voters favor Obama by 10 points when it comes to who better understands their
economic problems, while giving Romney a slight edge on the economy in
general. Key constituencies like women and middle-income voters worry about
what kind of job Romney will do.
Who do you think better
understands the economic
problems people are having?
Who do you trust to do a
better job on the economy?
Group
Obama
Romney
Obama
Romney
Overall
50
40
44
49
Men
46
45
42
54
Women
53
35
46
44
Independents
44
42
36
53
18-39
55
32
49
45
40-64
51
41
44
50
65+
38
53
34
56
<50k
50
39
44
47
50k-100k
53
36
47
45
100k+
51
44
43
53
10
Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling the economy?
Regardless of who you support, who do you think better understands the economy problems people in this country are having?
Washington Post/ABC News poll.
Recent movement across swing states has been a mixed bag. In Ohio, Obama
improved his margin by seven points, while shifts in Florida and Pennsylvania
were within the margin of error. Roughly one in ten voters remains undecided in
each of these states.
Presidential Ballot among Registered Voters in Selected Swing States
Ohio
Florida
+1
+4
+2
Pennsylvania
+9
+8
+6
11
27th
3rd
From Quinnipiac University polls released June
2012 and May
2012. June polls - 1,200 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,237 Ohio
voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,252 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. May polls 1,169 Florida voters with a margin of
error of +/- 2.9%; 1,130 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9%, 1,168 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9%.
While interest in the election is down from four years ago, it equals or
surpasses the interest from every election since 1992.
Based on Pew Research Center study: “GOP Holds Early Turnout Edge, But Little Enthusiasm for Romney.” Released June
21st 2012. Based on telephone interviews conducted June 7-17, 2012 among a national sample of 2,013 adults in all 50
states and the District of Columbia. Margin of error is +/- 2.5%.
12
Only in the hyper-polarized 2004 election has there been fewer swing
voters at this point in the campaign.
Certain
Democratic
Certain
Republican
Swing Voters
May
1992
July
1996
June
2000
June June June
2004 2008 2012
34
39
33
39
38
40
35
34
35
40
29
38
31
27
32
21
33
21
Certain voters are those who back Romney or Obama and say there is no chance they will support the
other. Swing voters are undecided, only lean toward a candidate or say there is still a chance they will
support the other.
Based on Pew Research Center study: “GOP Holds Early Turnout Edge, But Little Enthusiasm for Romney.” Released June
21st 2012. Based on telephone interviews conducted June 7-17, 2012 among a national sample of 2,013 adults in all 50
states and the District of Columbia. Margin of error is +/- 2.5%.
13
Republican super PACs
have helped Romney
stay financially
competitive in key
swing states. Between
Romney’s improved
fundraising ($106
million in June) and
spending from outside
groups, it is possible
that Obama will be the
first Presidential
incumbent to be
outspent.
“President Obama’s massive swing state spending edge” – Chris Cillizza,
Washington Post, July 9th 2012
“The second most important chart of the 2012 election (Hint: $$$)” – Aaron Blake,
Washington Post, July 9th 2012
14
More than eight in ten swing state voters have seen campaign ads, but
they are no more likely than non swing state voters to have been
contacted by a campaign or participated themselves.
Results for voters in 2012 Election swing states are based on telephone interviews conducted June 22-29, 2012, on the Gallup Daily tracking
survey, with a random sample of 1,200 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire,
New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
15
Ads attacking
Romney’s business
record appear to
be having some
traction. Swing
state voters who
have seen ads on
Romney’s business
background are
more likely to say it
gave them a
negative
impression (33%)
than a positive one
(18%).
NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 20th-June 24th, 2012. Poll conducted by telephone interviews among
1,000 adults, including 250 cell phone only respondents.
16
The ads could be tapping into broader public concerns on economic
fairness and the disappearing middle class. Although a vast majority says
it makes no difference, approximately one in five independents say
Romney’s wealth makes it less likely that they would vote for him.
“Mitt Romney’s wealth costs him with 1 in 5 voters.” Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking survey
July 9-10, 2012, with a random sample of 873 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Margin
of Error +/- 4%.
17
Predictions about which party will control the legislative agenda next year
are tricky given the competitive nature of the cycle: the generic
congressional ballot remains a dead heat since the Republican lead
evaporated after the midterm elections.
Generic congressional ballot
18
LRP/Tarrance Group. Battleground Poll. April 29 – May 3, 2012 N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters nationwide/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
As expected, there was a strong partisan split on the Supreme Court’s
ruling on “Obamacare.” A plurality of independents disapproved of the
decision, with one quarter remaining undecided.
Independents
Republicans
Democrats
+51
Do you approve or disapprove of the Supreme Court’s decision on the 2010 health care law?
Pew Research Center “Division, Uncertainty Over Court’s Health Care Ruling.” Released July 2 nd, 2012. Based on telephone interviews conducted
June 28th – July 1st 2012 among 1,006 adults. Margin of error +/- 3.6%.
19
Education as a National Issue
Voters are more focused on education
than in 2010, but it faces tough
competition to break through with the
economy.
More than four in ten voters say education is “very important” to their
vote for President this year.
Percent saying issue is “very important” to their vote for President
The economy
Health care
Federal budget deficit
62 percent of nonwhites say education
is “very important”
to their vote for
President
Education
Unemployment
Terrorism
Social Security & Medicare
Taxes
Extremely/Very
Important
Extremely
Important
Gas prices
Illegal immigration
51
47
44
44
43
41
39
38
32
28
92
87
79
78
85
71
79
76
63
59
How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for President this year – will it be extremely important, very
important, moderately important, or not that important?
Interviews with 1,517 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on June 18 th – July 1st, 2012. The
margin of error is +/-2.5%.
21
Democrats,
non-whites,
and women are
the most likely
to call
education
important to
their vote.
There is a
noticeable age
gap as well.
22
Darker colors indicate intensity.
Voters, especially highly educated ones, recognize that improving education at all
levels is essential to restoring American prosperity.
Two most important objectives to get America’s economy back on track
39
Reducing our dependence on foreign oil
Improving education at the elementary,
secondary, and post-secondary levels
34
32
Reducing the federal budget deficit
Reducing taxes and regulations on
business
21
19
Cracking down on unfair trade
Modernizing American's transportation
infrastructure
Expanding free-trade
Voters with a post
graduate degree – 49%
Voters with a HS
degree/less – 24%
12
7
23
College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from
March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.
Voters see a clear link between education and the
economy.
What impact does a high drop-out rate
have on the nation’s economy?
What impact does a high drop-out rate
have on America’s ability to compete in
the global economy?
24
Left: What impact does a high drop out rate have on the nation’s economy?
Right: What impact does a high drop out rate have on America’s ability to compete in the global economy?
Lake Research Partners. June 15-23, 2010. 1000 likely voters Nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.1%
Messaging on the link between education and America’s economic
future resonates across demographics, making education a good
proof point in the economic narrative.
“The global economy is here to
stay and it is highly competitive.
Unless we begin to better prepare
and educate our high school
students, the U.S. is at great risk
of falling behind in the world.
Right now our high school
students test lower than many of
our competitors, including on key
subjects like math and science. If
we do not address the quality of
education in our high schools and
prepare our youths to compete in
the global economy, we will lose
more American jobs and
companies overseas.”
Now I am going to read you some statements some people have made for ensuring that every high school student succeeds in college, their careers,
and in life. After each, please tell me whether you think it is a very convincing reason to ensure a quality HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION for every student
in America, a somewhat convincing reason, a little convincing, or not at all a convincing reason.
Lake Research Partners. June 15-23, 2010. 1000 likely voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.1%
25
Education ranks behind the economy, jobs, and the budget
deficit as the most important issues for Congress to focus on.
Now I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are important for Congress to focus on. Please listen as I read the list and tell me
which one issue you think is most important. -And what would you say is the next most important?
Politico Battleground 2012 – Lake Research Partners & The Tarrance Group. Survey of 1,000 likely voters , April 29th-May 3rd 2012.
26
Voters most likely to be impacted by the recession, like minorities,
Millennials, and voters in states with the highest unemployment rates,
are the most likely to say education is the most important issue for
Congress to focus on.
Education is the Most Important Issue (7%)
•Single men – 22%
•Minority male non-college graduate – 18%
•Single with children – 17%
•Voters in states with unemployment above
10% - 16%
•Ages 18-34 – 15%
•Male under 45 – 15%
•Undecided on Congressional ballot – 15%
•Minority non-college graduate – 14%
27
Politico Battleground 2012 – Lake Research Partners & The Tarrance Group. Survey of 1,000 likely voters , April 29th-May 3rd 2012.
Education is a top priority in budget fights. Voters
decisively disapprove of funding cuts.
Would you approve or disapprove as a way to reduce size of national debt?
28
Pew Research Center. May 25-30, 2011. 1509 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 2.5%
Thinking about ways to reduce the deficit and size of the national debt, please tell me if you would approve or disapprove of each of the following.
First, [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE; OBSERVE FORM SPLITS] Would you approve or disapprove of this as a way to reduce the size of the national debt?
“I mean they are cutting like all
the…like a bunch of teachers, some
special education secretary, all these
amazing classes.”
- White woman, Oregon
“I say it’s not really that good in terms
of education because it’s, tuition is
getting like more and more and it’s
like harder for people to go to
college.”
• Recent focus groups show how
concerned Americans are about
education.
• Voters are quick to point out rising
tuition costs and cuts to local schools.
- Chinese American woman, California
“You know, a quick band aid fix for
education isn’t going to work.”
- Hispanic woman, Ohio
“Yeah this is a great country that’s
true, but if it doesn’t start training
and making education affordable for
the young people here, it’s only to just
go down.”
-African American man, Ohio
• They see education as indispensable to
ensuring America remains a leader in
innovation and breakthrough ideas.
“I mean, you know you don’t fund
education for now, where are you
gonna get the new ideas, where do
you get the new ideas, innovations for
the future?”
- Chinese American man, California
Quotes from Lake Research Partners focus groups from June & July 2012.
29
Americans overwhelmingly say improving high schools is an urgent
matter, but their confidence in President Obama to complete that
task is less strong even though they believe he cares about the
issue.
How likely President Obama will get something done
on public education/improving public H.S.?
How urgent is it to improve high schools?
All Voters
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
Under 30
30 to 39
40 to 49
50 60 64
Over 65
White
African American
Hispanic
Urban Men
Urban Women
Suburban Men
Suburban Women
Rural Men
Rural Women
42
43
45
39
45
37
49
44
37
41
41
48
42
48
35
40
43
47
Extremely/Very Urgent
Extremely Urgent
73
77
76
All Voters
21
54
39
Democrats
Independents
68
Republicans
79
Under 30
71
30 to 39
76
74
40 to 49
50 60 64
68
72
74
Over 65
White
14
9
23
16
17
22
28
14
73
Hispanic
Urban Men
80
70
70
Urban Women
Suburban Men
Suburban Women
Rural Men
63
83
Rural Women
51
30
71
53
52
51
54
47
48
African American
85
80
32
25
23
17
23
13
21
80
82
58
63
50
55
40
44
Very/Somewhat Likely
Very Likely
Lake Research Partners. June 15-23, 2010. 1000 likely voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.1%
Left: High Schools. Is it extremely urgent, very urgent, somewhat urgent, a little urgent, or not at all urgent to improve High Schools?
Right: How likely do you think it is that President Obama will get something done on the issue of public education and improving public high schools?
30
More than one in three Americans say the cost of a college education is
an “extremely important” economic issue, rating higher than retirement
savings, foreclosures, and government regulations.
In your view, how important are each of the following economic issues facing the country today – extremely important, very important, somewhat important,
or not at all important?
Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 10-13, 2012, with a random sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and
older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that
the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
31
Americans are twice as likely to say they trust Obama to do a
better job improving education.
Which Presidential candidate, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, do you trust to do a better job on improving education?
Kaiser Family Foundation Health tracking poll conducted May 8th – May 14th among 1,218 adults. Margin of error +/3%.
32
By a 15-point margin, voters think President Obama would do a better job on
handling the cost of a college education than Governor Romney.
Obama speaking at the University of
Michigan on lowering tuition costs.
January 27th, source AP/Carlos Osorio.
Regardless of which Presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle each of the following
issues:
Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 10-13, 2012, with a random sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and
older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that
the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
33
Education Priorities
Voters say education is an important
issue when voting for federal office,
but are more likely to say it should be
a state priority.
A poll of voters in nine key swing states* showed that education as a voting issue
was a function of both party identification and gender. Women of all affiliations
tend to view education as more important than their male counterparts.
*The poll selected three
states in the
“Southwest”
(CO,NM,NV), three in
the “Southeast” (FL, NC,
VA), and three in the
“Midwest” (OH, PA, WI).
“Education is extremely important to me in this year’s elections for President and U.S. Congress:”
College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from
March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.
35
Americans believe the biggest problem with the public
schools in their area is a lack of funding. Recent budget cuts
have really fueled this concern.
What do you think are the biggest problems that the public schools of your community must deal with?
36
Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll. June 4-13, 2011. N=1002 adults. / ±3.1% M.O.E.
Party affiliation and gender also play a key role in determining
sentiments on education funding.
Definitely Necessary
Total Necessary
Among all voters:
44 percent definitely necessary
78 percent think it is necessary
Do you think increased funding for education is necessary?
College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from
March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters. MOE +/- 2.3%.
37
Although voters
consistently rate
education as a top
priority, a majority
believes that the
federal government
should leave it to
states and localities.
Groups favorable to
Republicans, like
seniors and whites,
think the federal
government should do
less (67% and 64%
respectively), while
Democratic groups like
African Americans
(75%), Hispanics
(52%), and 18-34 year
olds (51%), think it
should do more.
38
College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from
March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.
Confidence in public schools is at an all-time low, with less
than one in three expressing “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of
confidence in them.
39
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 7-10, 2012, with a random sample of 1,004 adults, aged 18 and
older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
Voters rate their local schools significantly higher than schools nationwide. A
plurality of swing state voters (45%) says schools nationwide are just adequate.
Local Schools
Schools Nationwide
40
College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from
March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.
Americans are much more likely to say their state government should
address education than the federal government. Democrats and people
of color see the least difference.
Extremely important for
____ to address
education.
Governor/State
Legislature
President/
Congress
Gap
Overall
69
49
20
Men
65
45
20
Women
73
53
20
Whites
65
42
23
African Americans
88
79
9
Hispanics
83
71
12
Democrats
79
68
11
Independents
71
46
25
Republicans
53
29
24
41
College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from
March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.
Voters cite parents and teachers as the most important
groups for improving education.
42
College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from
March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.
Swing state voters are much more likely to associate positive
traits with pro-education candidates than negative traits.
Associations with candidates who put a top priority on education
64
Forward-looking, concerned about the future
86
Cares about ensuring equal opportunities for all
56
83
In touch with concerns of average family today
57
82
54
82
Understands what it takes to compete in a global
economy
Likely to be a tax and spend liberal
Strongly/somewhat
associate
Strongly associate
Has misplaced priorities
Is unrealistic
20
24
16
50
43
38
“I strongly or somewhat associate this phrase with a candidate who puts a top priority on education…”
College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from
March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.
43
Candidates looking to get the most benefit out of education as a voting issue
should focus on offering tax breaks to afford a college education, forgiving
student loan debt for teachers, nurses, and members of the armed forces, and on
increasing the number of Americans with a college degree.
Likelihood of supporting a candidate with this position
More Likely Less Likely
Allowing employers to offer tuition assistance to
employees tax free
82
7
Increase the amount that families can contribute to taxfree college savings account
77
8
Making American be the world leader again in the
proportion of people with a post-secondary degree or
credential
75
9
Forgive student loan debt for teachers, nurses, and
members of the armed forces who work in the field for
10 years or more after graduating from college
70
19
Increasing the proportion of young people who receive
a post-secondary degree or credential from 42% today
to 55% by 2025
70
13
44
College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from
March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.
Federal aid to help states retain and hire teachers leads the list of
second-tier issues, followed closely by a description of the DREAM Act
and doubling funding for Pell grants.
Likelihood of supporting a candidate with this position
More Likely Less Likely
Provide federal funds to help states retain elementary
and secondary school teachers and hire new ones
68
20
Allowing children of undocumented immigrants who
have grown up in American to attain legal residency
status if they complete college or serve in the military
65
25
Limit payments on college loans to no more than 10%
of a person’s income
64
21
Double funding for Pell grants, which are college tuition
grants given by the federal government
63
22
Base funding for post-secondary education in part on
momentum toward completion and total completion
rates, not solely on enrollment
59
17
45
College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from
March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.
Although they are often promoted by education reformers, merit pay for
teachers and public funding for charter or private schools are the lowesttesting messages.
Likelihood of supporting a candidate with this position
More Likely Less Likely
Allow people who have professional experience in math
or science teach in public schools even if they do not
have degrees in education
57
31
Base teachers’ salaries partially upon student
performance
51
36
Make it easier for charter schools to open and have no
limit on the number of charter schools that can open in
a school district
41
38
Give federal government grants to parents to help them
pay for their children to attend private schools, religious
schools, or for home schooling
40
51
46
College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from
March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
LakeResearch.com
202.776.9066
Celinda Lake
[email protected]