Transcript Diapositiva 1

Mobile Broadband as a Complement to Fixed Broadband
Banjul, Gambia, 13 July 2010
Belinda Exelby, GSM Association
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Mobile Complements Fixed for Broadband
Fixed Broadband
Mobile
1.3 Billion Lines
4.8 Billion Connections
19.4% of the world’s population
72.7% of the world’s population
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The Lessons of History
(Fixed)
Source: Wireless Intelligence & ITU

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Comparing the slow growth in fixed broadband with the rapid pace
of mobile adoption suggests that much of the future growth of
broadband delivery will be over the mobile network.
The Changing Face of Mobile

Consistent evolution of global
standards provides economies
of scale which drive down costs
for consumers
LTE
100Mbps
HSPA+
28-42Mbps
HSPA
14.4Mbps
WCDMA
384kbps
GSM
9.6kbps
3G
WCDMA
GSM
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2G
HSPA
Source: Wireless Intelligence, January, 2009
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HSPA Subscribers Today
US & Canada – 47.3M
Western Europe – 75.6M
Eastern Europe – 12.8M
Middle East – 9.3M
Total HSPA
Subs 237.7
million
Americas – 10.5M
Africa – 4.3M
Asia Pac – 77.9M
Source: Wireless Intelligence, Q1 2010
 HSPA/HSPA+ will dominate wireless broadband services,
with 1.1 billion customers worldwide by 2015
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HSPA Launch Dates and Subscribers in Africa
Morocco
HSPA Lunch: Q2 2007
HSPA Subs: 520,107
Egypt
HSPA Lunch: Q2 2006
HSPA Subs: 819,774
Libya
HSPA Lunch: Q1 2007
HSPA Subs: 811,983
Uganda
HSPA Lunch: Q4 2007
HSPA Subs: 61,561
Ghana
HSPA Lunch: Q4 2008
HSPA Subs: 78,957
Kenya
HSPA Lunch: Q2 2008
HSPA Subs: 31,218
Nigeria
HSPA Lunch: Q1 2008
HSPA Subs: 450,454
Tanzania
HSPA Lunch: Q2 2007
HSPA Subs: 112,997
Namibia
HSPA Lunch: Q4 2006
HSPA Subs: 37,832
Mozambique
HSPA Lunch: Q4 2008
HSPA Subs: 122,075
South Africa
HSPA Lunch: Q2 2006
HSPA Subs: 1,289,510
Madagascar
HSPA Lunch: Q4 2009
HSPA Subs: 5,411
Botswana
HSPA Lunch: Q3 2008
HSPA Subs: 10,964
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In Africa Mobile drives Broadband Penetration
 In 2007, mobile broadband represented 24% of fixed
broadband connections in Africa
 By the end of 2009 this figure had climbed to almost 75%
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Mobile Broadband - overtaking Fixed
Source: Wireless Intelligence & Telegeography
 Where there is a choice of broadband access technology
in Africa, consumers are using mobile more than fixed
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Infrastructure Challenges
FIXED
MOBILE

Limited existing
infrastructure

Rapid, relatively low-cost
roll-out

High operating expenses

Easily scalable

Further roll-out cumbersome
and expensive

More spectrum becoming
available
 Mobile is critical for universal broadband coverage
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Broadband -Transformational in Emerging Markets
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Broadband Drives GDP Growth

World Bank analysis of 120 countries
estimated that for every 10% increase in the
penetration of broadband services, there is
an increase in economic growth of 1.3%*

Booz & Co research found that:
†

Countries with 80% broadband penetration
are more than twice as innovative as countries
with 40% penetration

Increasing broadband penetration by 10%
translates into a 1.5% increase in a country’s
labour productivity
Sources: *World Bank, Qiang 2009; † Booz & Company, Enabling Sustainable Digital Highways; Strategies for Next-Generation Broadband
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How Broadband Stimulates Economic Growth
Explanation
Direct
Immediate value GDP contribution from direct investments in
network
creation
(ICT industry)
Indirect
(other
industries)
Examples
Multiplier effects
Impact of broadband investment on suppliers of
equipment, content, etc.
Foreign direct
investments
Foreign direct investments as a result of good ICT
infrastructure
Productivity
increases
More efficient business processes because of
connectivity
Human capital
formation
Increase in knowledge and skills as well as
improved services through broadband
Source: McKinsey
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Policy-making to Facilitate Mobile Broadband
POTENTIAL ACTIONS FOR POLICY MAKERS
Spectrum
availability
Infrastructure/
spectrum
sharing
Coverage
obligations
•
•
•
•
Spectrum/
licence pricing
Make low-band spectrum available to reduce access network cost
Ensure allocation of sufficient contiguous spectrum (10–12 MHz)
-40–50
Monitor and manage usage to optimize allocation
Guarantee neutrality of technology to ensure innovation
• Promote infrastructure sharing (tower/backhaul) to reduce
•
network cost
Allow spectrum sharing/national data roaming to increase
efficiency and reduce operational costs
• Provide incentives for roll out (e.g., regulatory concessions)
• Encourage public-private partnerships or grant separate
•
Industry
structure
Impact on cost to
serve per subscriber*
-25–35
licenses for rural areas to drive coverage
Provide public funding for remote areas to achieve sufficient coverage
• Ensure an economically viable number of players in the market
• Allow industry consolidation if not market-distorting
-20–30
• Charge nominal spectrum/licence fees to ensure affordability
• Award licences based on coverage, partially substituting or
replacing financial criteria
Total impact of up to 75% reduction in cost to serve
Source: McKinsey
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-35–40
-15–30***
Spectrum is Needed for Broadband to Grow
X3
Aggregated Band Width
1987-2010
450-600 MHz
in each market
2010-2020
1.3GHz-1.7GHz
in each market
Regulators are allocating more bandwidth and eliminating or
redefining spectrum caps as they realise broadband requires
more spectrum

According to ITU, by the year 2020 mobile services will need:
 1.280 GHz for low market demand (rural areas)
 1.720 GHz for high market demand (urban areas)
Source: ITU-R Report M.2078
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Economic Impact of Taxation
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Impact of Taxation on the Development of the Mobile Broadband
Sector in Emerging Countries, GSMA, July 2010
Taxation Structure Impacts Mobile Penetration
Estimated percentage increase
in mobile penetration resulting
from changes in taxation
Estimated percentage increase
in mobile user base resulting
from changes in taxation
 Reduction of 1% of tax on TCO
 Reduction of 1% of tax on TCO
 Reduction of tax to benchmark rate (6.1%)
 Reduction of tax to benchmark rate (6.1%)
Note: Malaysia is considered to be the benchmark at 6.1%
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Source: Impact of Taxation on the Development of the Mobile
Broadband Sector in Emerging Countries, GSMA, July 2010
Conclusions



Mobile broadband is a vital complement
to fixed
Internet connectivity via mobile
broadband will
 dramatically enhance people’s lives
and prospects
 provide a huge boost to national
economies
Spectrum and taxation policies will
affect the pace at which mobile
broadband networks can be rolled out
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