Transcript 第二章推移质运动

Sustainable Development
Practice in China
Energy and Industry - 2
Energy and Industry
• Energy principles: “Useful” energy, thermal
dynamic laws; “Entropy” and 2nd law of thermal
dynamics
• Energy challenges: climate change, energy crisis,
energy security
• Renewable energy: wind, water, solar …
General situation
•
•
•
•
The energy flow chart;
Energy crisis
Energy security
Energy consumption reduction for climate
change mitigation
Energy in the world
• BP statistical review 2012
• IPCC report volume III
Energy Issues in China
World primary energy consumption by fuel in 2005~2010, in million toe
World primary energy consumption since 1965, according to BP-2011
World coal consumption since 1965, according to BP-2011
World oil consumption since 1965, according to BP-2011
World gas consumption since 1965, according to BP-2011
World hydro-power supply since 1999, according to BP-2011
World nuclear power consumption since 1965, according to BP2011
World solar energy consumption since 1996, according to BP-2011
World wind power consumption since 2003, according to BP2011
Energy consumption structure in 2010
--- Based on BP world energy statistics 2011
China burns coal
more than 3 times
than that by US
and more than 6
times than that by
India.
Current energy situation of China
Proved reserves:
• Fossil fuel
– Coal in 2006, proved reserve 1034.5 billion tonnes, 13% of the
world, 3rd place.
– Proved reserves of oil and gas are relatively limited.
– Some unconventional fossil energies including oil shale and coal
seam gases
• Renewable energy resources
– Hydro power: theoretical reserves were equal to 6,190 billion
kwh, economically exploitable annual power output was 1,760
billion kwh, equivalent to 12% of the global, 1st place
Low per-capita average of energy resources
• The per-capita averages of both coal and
hydropower resources are 1/2 of the global
average;
• The per-capita average of both oil and natural
gas resources is only about 1/15 of the global
average;
• The per-capita average of arable land is less
than 30% of the global average, which has
hindered the development of biomass energy.
A number of “Resource Exhausted” cities
• Criterion:
– Accumulated production has reached 70% or
more of the proved reserve originally found, or
– to last 5 years or less with the current
technologies;
• Two lists were announced in 2008 and 2009,
including coal mines, oil fields, non-ferrous
mines, and wood-industry regions;
• 44 out of 114 “Resource Cities” are now on
the “exhausted” list.
Sectoral energy consumption of China
China energy consumption structure change:
Oil consumption is increasing quickly, however, coal consumption
increases no less …
Changes in sectoral energy consumption of China
Energy consumption in industrial sectors,
excluding electricity production (2008)
104 tonnes coal equivalent
Non-metal
Prod.
Ferrous metal
manufacturing
Chem. Eng.
Oil refinery
Textile
Non-ferrous metal
manufacturing
Electricity consumption in industrial sectors
(2008)
108 kWh
Non-metal
Prod.
Ferrous metal
manufacturing
Chem. Eng.
Non-ferrous metal
manufacturing
Textile
White Paper: “Situation and Policy of China’s Energy”, Dec 2007
• Current situation
– Energy production and consumption
• Energy structure
• Energy consumption per unit GDP
• Energy consumption per capita
– Comparison with other countries
• Energy production and consumption, and economic
development
• Efforts of energy saving
• Energy supply capability has been remarkably enhanced.
•
In 2006, the output of primary energy equaled 2.21 billion tons of standard coal,
ranking second in the world.
– Raw coal accounted for 2.37 billion tons, ranking the first place in the world. Built a number of
extra-large coalmines.
– Daqing, Shengli, Liaohe, Tarim and the large oilfields have been successively built, and the
output of crude oil has increased steadily, ranking China the world's fifth-largest (?) oil
producer in 2006, with 185 million tons in that year.
– The output of natural gas ballooned from 14.3 billion cu m in 1980 to 58.6 billion cu m in 2006.
– The proportion of commercial renewable energy in the structure of primary energy keeps
rising.
– The electricity sector also reported speedy growth in 2006. The installed capacity reached 622
million kw, and the amount of power generated was 2,870 billion kwh, both ranking second in
the world.
•
A comprehensive energy transportation system has been developed quickly, with the
transport capacity notably improved.
– Special railways transporting coal from the west to the east and relevant coal ports, and
– pipelines transporting oil from the north to the south and conveying natural gas from the west
to the east have all been built.
– Now, the power generated in the west can be carried to the east, and the regional power
grids have all been connected up.
Uneven distribution of energy
– China's energy resources are scattered widely across the
country, but the distribution is uneven:
• Coal is found mainly in the north and the northwest,
• hydropower in the southwest, and
• oil and natural gas in the eastern, central and western regions and
along the coast.
– But, the consumers of energy resources are mainly in the
southeast coastal areas, where the economy is the most
developed, such that fundamentally, China's energy flow:
• large-scale transportation over long distances of coal and oil from
the north to the south,
• and transmission of natural gas and electricity from the west to the
east.
• (Southern water to north), northen coal/oil to south, western
gas/electricity to east…
Exploitation difficulties:
• Coal, poor mining conditions, minor portion can apply
opencast working
• Oil and gas fields with complicated geological conditions,
requiring advanced exploitation techniques
• Hydro resources are located southwest mountainous areas,
far from economic centers.
• Low economy of non-conventional energy resources
“Resource Exhausted” cities
• Criterion:
– Accumulated production has reached 70% or more of the
proved reserve originally found, or
– to last 5 years or less with the current technologies
• Two lists were announced in 2008 and 2009, including
coal mines, oil fields, non-ferrous mines, and woodindustry regions
• 44 out of 114 “Resource Cities” are now on the
“exhausted” list
•
First list in 2008 (12)
– Central region (3): Jiaozuo, Pingxiang, Daye(county) (焦作, 萍乡, 大冶);
– Resource-type Economically Transit (trial) cities (5), Fuxin, Yicun, Liaoyuan, Baishan, Panjing
(阜新、伊春、辽源、白山、盘锦)；
– Western resource exhausted cities (3): Shizuishan, Baiyin, Gejiu(county) (石嘴山, 白银, 个
旧)；
– Resource exhausted area (1): DaXingAnLing (大兴安岭)。
•
Second list in 2009 (32)
– Prefecture level cities (9): ZhaoZhuang (Shandong), HuangShi (Hubei), HuaiBei (Anhui),
TongLin(Anhui), QiTaiHe(Heilongjiang), WanSheng (Chongqing), FuSun, FuXin, and PanJin
(Liaoning), 山东省枣庄市、湖北省黄石市、安徽省淮北市、安徽省铜陵市、黑龙江省
七台河市、重庆市万盛区（当作地级市对待）、辽宁省抚顺市、陕西省铜川市、江
西省景德镇市、内蒙古大兴安岭地区、辽宁省阜新市、黑龙江省伊春市、吉林省辽
源市、吉林省白山市、辽宁省盘锦市。
– County level cities (17)：贵州省铜仁地区万山特区、甘肃省玉门市、湖北省潜江市、
河南省灵宝市、广西壮族自治区合山市、湖南省耒阳市、湖南省冷水江市、辽宁省
北票市、吉林省舒兰市、四川省华蓥市、吉林省九台市、湖南省资兴市、湖北省钟
祥市、山西省孝义市、黑龙江省五大连池市（森工）、内蒙古自治区阿尔山市（森
工）。
– City districts (6)：辽宁省葫芦岛市杨家杖子开发区、河北省承德市鹰手营子矿区、辽
宁省葫芦岛市南票区、云南省昆明市东川区、辽宁省辽阳市弓长岭区、河北省张家
口市下花园区。
Coal mines
Yu Men
Oil and gas fields
Challenges for a stable, economic, clean and safe energy supply system
•
Resource limitation, low energy efficiency
– Lack of major high quality energy resources, supply limitation, uneven distribution;
– Development mode, improper energy structure, backward equipment and
management, so as high energy consumption and consumption strength
•
Coal as the main energy, environmental pressure
– Coal as the main fuel will last for a long period.
– Backward coal production and consumption, with environmental pressures: main
source of air pollution and GHGs
– With the rapid increment of vehicle numbers, car emission induced air pollution
will become severe.
•
Imperfect market system, emergency management capacity
– Energy marketing system, pricing mechanism, should be consistent with resource
limitation, supply shortage, and environmental cost.
– Energy exploitation, supervision system
– Safety in mining, especially coal mining. Electric grid not reasonable, oil storage,
and emergency response system
Achievements in energy saving
• Achievements
– 1980－2005, energy consumption increased by 5.4% annual
average, GDP increased 9.8% per year, so as the elasticity
coefficient 0.55;
– Energy consumption strength decreased from 3.98 ton (coal) per
104 RMB in 1980 to 1.42 ton (coal) per 104 RMB in 2005, 64.3%
less；
– Annual energy saving rate over 4%；
– Combined efficiency of energy processing, conversion, storage,
and end-use raised from 25% in 1980 o 33% of 2006;
– The gap comparing with advanced countries is getting smaller of
energy strength in energy-consuming products;
Energy strength per unit GDP has been reduced by 60% in
the last 20 years, but still 3.1 times as the world average, 9
times as that of Japan and 4.3 times of OESD
6
单位GDP能耗
4
3
2
1
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0
1990
万吨标煤/亿元GDP
5




单位GDP能耗高出世界平均水平70％，
单位建筑面积采暖能耗比发达国家高出2至3倍。
二产的比例：2003年46.02%，2004年46.2%，2005年47.3%。
二产当中重工业加速发展，其增加值2002年60.9%，2003年
64.3%，2004年67.6%，2005年69.0%
国家重要举措
• 2006年3月16日《“十一五”规划纲要》
• 2006年8月5日《“十一五”期间全国主要污染物排放总量控制计
划》
• 2007年5月23日《节能减排综合性工作方案》
• 2007年6月12日成立国家应对气候变化及节能减排工作领导小组，
下设国家应对气候变化领导小组办公室、国务院节能减排工作领
导小组办公室
• 2007年11月17日发改委、统计局和环保总局等制订
– 三个方案：《单位GDP能耗统计指标体系实施方案》、
《单位GDP能耗监测体系实施方案》、《单位GDP能耗考核
体系实施方案》和
– 三个办法：《主要污染物总量减排统计办法》、《主要污
染物总量减排监测办法》、《主要污染物总量减排考核办
法》
• 2007年11月22日国家环境保护“十一五”规划
• 2008年4月1日施行《中华人民共和国节约能源法》
Mid and Long Term Plan of Nuclear
Electricity of China (2005~2020)
Oct 2007
Development and Reform Commission of China
Energy issues:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Limited energy resource, especially in per capita;
Fossil energy reservation;
Rapid increase in energy consumption
Daily life energy consumption increases
Low energy use efficiency
Alternative / renewable energy
Nuclear power development in China?
Development of nuclear power system
Current situation
• Nuclear power in world’s electricity
– 1st commercial nuclear power station in 1950s;
– According to IAEA, in Oct 2005, there were 442 in
operation, pressured water 60%, boiled water 21%,
CANDU 9%, others (graphite reactor etc) 10%；
– Total capacity 369 million kWa, in 31 countries/regions;
– Nuclear electricity takes 17% of world total electricity;
– There are 16 countries/regions with over 20% nuclear
power generation, including US, France, Germany, and
Japan etc.
• Nuclear power development in China
– In 1983, PWR was taken as the main type. Capacity
has been built up on the related technology: design,
manufacturing, construction and operation
management;
– The 1st station was put in use in 1991 (QinShan).
Since then there are 6 stations with 11 sets of
reactors and 9.068 million kWa put in commercial
operation, and 8 reactors with 7.90 million kWa are
under construction (LingAo-2, QinShan-2, and
HongYanHe-1)
2007 situation of nuclear stations of China (104 kWa)
No
Reactor
Capacity
Operation
1
QinShan-I-#1
30
1991.4
2
QinShan-II-#1
65
2002.4
3
QinShan-II-#2
65
2004.3
4
QinShan-III-#1
70
2002.12
5
QinShan-III-#2
70
2003.11
6
DaYaWan-#1
98.4
1994.2
7
DaYaWan-#2
98.4
1994.5
8
LingAo-#1
99
2002.5
9
LingAo-#2
99
2003.1
10
TianWan#1
106
2007.5
11
TianWan#2
106
2007.8
12
LingAo-II-#1
108
Cons
Dec 2005 ~ 2010 to complete
13
LingAo-II-#2
108
Cons
Dec 2005 ~ 2010 to complete
14
QinShan-II-E-#1
65
Cons
Apr 2006 ~ 2011 to complete
15
QinShan-II-E-#2
65
Cons
Apr 2006 ~ 2011 to complete
16
HongYanHe-1
4×111
Cons
Total
1696．8
Remark
• Capability
– Design: 30 and 60 104kWa stations, and some of 100 104kWa
station；
– Equipment manufacturing: able to produce 30 104kWa PWR
station, over 80% made in China. For 30 104kWa PWR station,
70% China made. Aiming to main parts of 100 30 104kWa
PWR station made in China;
– For nuclear fuel, current supply can be satisfied;
– For nuclear technology, developments in technologies of
FFTF(Fast Flux Test Facility) and high temperature gas cooled
reactor
– Nuclear safety: regulations on security management, and
emergency systems.
Strategy and targets
• Strategy
– Security priority
– 100 104kWa PWR strategy, development along hot-photon ~
fast photo ~ controllable fusion
– Learn from international experience and technology
• Targets
– To 2020, nuclear power capacity to 4000 104 kWa, annual
nuclear electricity production 260-280 billion kWah
– Based on current capacity 1696.8 104kWa, to increase new
capacity 2300 104kWa
– Considering further development, around the end of 2020, the
capacity under construction should keep 1800 104kWa
Nuclear power development plan (104kWa)
New
projects
New
operation
Before 2000
Extend to the
next 5-year
End of the
5-year
226.8
2001~2005
346
468
558
694.8
2006~2010
1244
558
1244
1252.8
2011~2015
2000
1244
2000
2496.8
2016~2020
1800
2000
1800
4496.8
Coastline nuclear stations (104 kWa)
Province
Station
Scale
Remarks
Zhejiang
QinShan-II-E
2×65
Approved
SanMen(JianTiao)
6×100
1st phase approved
FangJiaShan
2×100
Reviewed
SanMen(KuoTangShan)
4×100
Reviewed
Jiangsu
TianWan-E
4×100
Reviewed
Guangdong
LinAo-II
2×10
Approved
YangJiang
6×100
1st phase approved
YaoGu
6×10
Approved
HaiYang
6×100
Approved
Shandong
RuShanHongShiDing
6×100
Site needs be changed
Liaoning
HongYanHe
6×100
1st phase approved
Fujian
NingDe
6×10
Approved
Guangxi
FangChengGang/QinZhou
4×100
First review completed
Total
13 sites
5946
• New actions
– After 2004, new sites were considered in Guangdong,
Zhejiang, Fujian etc.
– From the present to 2020, new stations will mainly considered
in above coastal provinces.
– Other than coastal, new sites have also searched in Hubei,
Jiangxi, Hunan, Jilin, Anhui, Henan, Chongqing, Sicuan, and
Gansu etc.
• Challenges
–
–
–
–
Nuclear fuel supply
Radiactive waste disposal
Cost
Decommission
China nuclear station development
In France, there are
59 nuclear power
stations, with
capacity 63 GWe,
providing over 430
billion kWh per year.
Electricity, nuclear
fuel and service are
important exporting
goods, the 1st in
exporting electricity
in the world.
Nuclear stations in the world
Nuclear power stations and the locations with
10% earthquake possibility in 50 years
Japan
Taiwan
Pakistan
Iran
2 in US