Transcript Modern Presidential Selection
Presidential Selection: The Framers’ Plan
The Framers engaged in lots of debate about how to choose the president. Possibilities — Select by Congress Select by direct election Selected by state legislatures Selected by specially elected electors.
Pros and Cons of Each?
Original Constitutional Plan — Electoral College
President to be selected by a special body of electors (Electoral College) Each state would have as many electors as it had representative AND Senators. Electors chosen in each state by a method specified by the state legislature.
Each elector casts two votes for president, can’t double up.
Counted in a joint session of Congress
Original Constitutional Plan
Person with the most votes, if a majority, becomes President.
Person with the second most votes becomes Vice President.
If tie, or no majority, President selected by the House of Rep. between top three.
If tie for VP, chosen by the Senate between top two.
Intended that electors be bright, respectable free agents.
12
th
Amendment
Original system worked for only three elections.
1800. Rise of parties messes up the system.
Jefferson v. Adams (v. Burr) 12 th Amendment Separates vote for president and Vice President
Choosing the President in History
Constitution does not provide a method of selecting candidates, because didn’t foresee parties.
A number of methods have been used over the years.
Congressional Caucus —1800-1824. Both parties congressional delegations met and chose a candidate. Was objected to because not democratic.
Choosing the President Today
The process has changed today pretty significantly…
The Road to the Presidency
“Test the waters” Visit talk shows, make appearances in IA and NH, take a book tour, for a PAC to raise money for a cause Create a campaign organization Fundraising, grassroots (especially in early primary states) Raise money
The Road to the Presidency (cont.)
Campaign in early primaries/caucuses Modify strategy based on results of early primaries Convention/Nomination CONTROL THE CONVENTION!
Campaign for the General Election Election Day/Electoral College
Conventions
A big meeting at which delegates from each state vote to determine who the nominee will be. Mostly governed by party rules and a few state laws effecting the selecting of delegates.
Summer before the presidential election. By tradition the party out of power goes first in August, then the party in power in late August/September
Conventions
Usually in a major city with the facilities to handle. Also often in a city that is strategically important. Party tells each state how many delegates they will have.
Super-delegates (Democrats only)
The National Convention
National Convention
used to be very important, but now a formality Purpose • • • • name President and VP candidates bring leading personalities in the party together for common purpose adopt party’s
platform
also promotes party unity, mobilizes support for party ticket, and captures interest of country Day 1: organizing and welcoming Day 2: adoption of party platform and
keynote address
Day 3: nomination of VP and President Day 4: President acceptance speech
My pictures from 2012 RNC
https://twitter.com/CoachShookNOHS
Who is Nominated?
only four times has sitting president been snubbed mostly governors other characteristics Protestant from large state healthy appearance happily married attractive family well-spoken no women or minority was ever nominated for President until 2008
Selection of Delegates
Delegates are selected in a number of ways. In the early days of primaries, delegates came to the convention as free agents; unclear who the candidate would be before the convention began.
Now, delegates usually come to the convention pledged to a particular candidate, so that outcome of convention vote is well-known before-hand.
Presidential Primaries: 3/4 of all delegates come from states that hold primary election where votes select delegates that will vote for a particular candidate.
Rest pick delegates at caucuses
Primaries v. Caucuses
Primary A standard election where voters vote a polling place with a ballot, voting machine, etc.
• The first primary is New Hampshire Caucus A meeting where candidates are nominated for political office or delegates are selected to a national convention (the latter is what happens when voting for president) • The first caucus is Iowa (the first to vote for president in the nation)
Primaries
Process varies greatly from state to state because process controlled by state law.
States prefer to hold their primaries first.
Why?
The primaries have come earlier and earlier to the point that in 2004 the nominees were clear by mid-spring.
Democrats prohibit winner-take-all primaries, so that delegates are divided based on vote totals to long as a candidate polls at least 15 percent. Now few winner-take-all primaries because state laws have accommodated the democratic requirement Most GOP primaries have been winner-take-all; Georgia changed it in 2011
Primaries
Primaries are front-loaded This means that most of the important states have their primaries early • They do this so they can be viable This also means that the first primaries are the most important for the candidates because if they win early they will be label a “winner” and it will make it more likely for them to win later primaries
Evaluation of the Presidential Primary
While complicated, are also vital and important. Help test the candidates to make sure that the one selected is able to handle the pressures of a campaign.
Allow dark-horses, such as Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, to emerge.
Becoming harder for unknowns to break through. Need more money and organization at the outset.
Republicans Democrats
Hoopla!!
TV Ads Internet Radio Posters Pins Rallies Where? Swing states!
Email/Mail $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Debates Usually 3
What day?
What you do when you vote… Winner take all!
Except where? ME & NB Then what?
Monday after the Second Wednesday in December… January 6 in the Senate…
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The Electoral College Today
Voters don’t vote for the presidential candidates, they vote for electors pledged to those candidates. Presidential Election (for electors) is always on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. (Date is set by Congress.) Electors are winner take all in all states except Maine and Nebraska.
In most states, the names of the electors do not even appear on the ballot.
The Electoral College Today
Electors meet in the state capitals on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December. Votes are cast, sealed and sent to Washington. Votes are opened and counted on January 6.
If no candidate has a majority (270 of 538) , the House of representatives must select the president from the top three candidates. If the house fails to pick a President by January 20, under the 20th Amendment the newly elected Vice President shall act as President until it does.
http://qual.sos.state.ga.us/QualifyingSearchR esults.asp?SearchType=PE
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Some, like Gov. Sonny Perdue, are former elected officials.
Others, like Frank Strickland and Ann Lewis are lawyers who have represented the party officially.
Ann Lewis (see above) Kelly Loeffler gave $750k to a Romney SuperPAC, and I assume this raised her status. She's also an attractive potential future candidate. Possible Senate candidate in 2014 Jimmy Ho is rich and a well-respected businessman. I suspect he's given significant money to the party, as well as being Asian-American, which helps us show the diversity of the party.
Eric Tanenblatt was a major fundraiser, both in GA and nationally for Romney.
Randy Evans is Republican National Committeeman from Georgia.
Julianne Thompson is a major player in the Tea Party movement and is from Gwinnett County, one of the two largest pools of GOP voters in any given year.
Kathy Hildebrand was the main activist on the Rick Santorum campaign.
Darrell Galloway, and his wife Virginia, are major players in the Tea Party movement.
Linda Herren is Republican National Committeewoman.
Chip Pearson is a former elected official, and major fundraiser for the state party; I think he may still be chair of the GOP Foundation.
Bob Mayzes, longtime treasure of the GAGOP Toria Morgan is assistant treasurer at the GAGOP.
Sue Everhart is Chair of the GAGOP Theresa Chappelle (I have no clue—but probably gave a lot of money)
Flaws in the Electoral College
First problem is the chance that the person receiving the majority of votes will not win the presidency (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000).
Two reasons
, 1) winner take all nature of electoral votes means that it doesn’t matter by how many votes one wins a state. 2) Secondly, electoral votes are not distributed evenly. • • CA: 1 EV = 615,000 people WY: 1 EV = 164,000 people
Flaws in the Electoral College
The Second Major Defect
Unfaithful Electors (11 times)
The Third Major Defect
Elections could be determined by the House. Voting is by states and thus the small states have a much bigger voice. Also, if a state’s delegates can’t agree, they could loose their vote entirely, since it is a collective vote. Also, must be a majority vote. They might not be able to get a majority, either.
Reforming the Electoral College
constitutional amendments for reform have been offered every term in Congress since 1789 The
District Plan
do away with winner-take-all and would better reflect populations’ wishes it wouldn’t eliminate possibility of loser of popular vote winning
Reforming the Electoral College
The
Proportional Plan
proposed in Colorado in 2004 (defeated) candidate would receive same share of State’s electoral vote as his share of popular vote odds of election going to the House increased b/c of third party candidates winning portion of electoral college
Reforming the Electoral College
Direct Popular Election
it would be the most democratic method constitutional amendment would be difficult to pass b/c smaller states are overly represented in the current system and are unlikely to support popular election weakens federalism b/c States would lose their role in choosing President voter fraud would be rampant and recounts would abound turnout of certain groups in States would have impact lessen b/c they couldn’t throw a state one way or the other
Reforming the Electoral College
National Bonus Plan
would keep much of current system intact but weight the winner-take-all feature toward winner of popular vote winner of popular vote would receive 102 votes automatically and the candidate with 321 electoral votes would win • if no majority, runoff election
REVIEW
A.
Electoral College B.
Elector C.
Popular Vote D.
Plurality Member of the electoral college
B.
The greatest number of popular votes received by a candidate in an election (may or may not be a majority)
D.
Total votes cast by the general public in an election
C.
Body of representatives from the states and DC that elect the POTUS
A.
Review
The national convention is held to accomplish all of the following EXCEPT
A.
adopt the party's platform.
B.
pick its presidential candidate.
C.
select the party's delegates.
D.
unify the party behind its candidates.
Review
A presidential primary can be
A.
a process to select delegates to the convention.
B.
an election to determine voters' choice among candidates.
C.
both of the above.
D.
none of the above.
Review
The first and most widely publicized primary today is held in the State of
A.
California.
B.
Iowa.
C.
New Hampshire.
D.
New Jersey.
Review
All of the following are characteristics that usually determine who is nominated for President EXCEPT
A.
controversial viewpoints.
B.
from a key larger State.
C.
incumbency.
D.
married.
Review
One of the major flaws in the electoral college system is that
A.
electors are required to vote according to the wishes of their constituency.
B.
the incumbent President is usually reelected.
C.
the majority party in Congress has an advantage when the electorate votes.
D.
the winner of the popular vote is not guaranteed the presidency.
Review
The least number of presidential electors a State can have is
A.
four.
B.
one.
C.
three.
D.
two.
Review
The plan for reform of the electoral college which allows people to vote directly for the president is the
A.
direct popular election plan.
B.
district plan.
C.
national bonus plan.
D.
proportional plan.
Review Time
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