Transcript Electing a President: The Electoral College

Electing a President
Electing the President
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Primaries and Caucuses (January through June)
National Conventions
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Dems: Aug. 25-28, Denver
Reps: Sept. 1-4, St. Paul
General Election (1st Tuesday in November)
Electoral College Vote (Monday following 2nd
Wednesday in December)
President of Senate Unseals and Reads (January 6)
Inauguration (January 20)
Step 1:
Volunteer Support and Fundraising
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Two years before general election (Autumn
2006)
War chest, name recognition, viability?
Campaign Finance:
Where Do Candidates Get Money?
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Presidential candidates: Public Funding!
Personal finances (think Perot)
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Buckley v. Valeo – protected by First Amendment
Individual donors
Political Action Committees (PACs)
Other Sources of Money
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“Soft Money”
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Under Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002
(McCain/Feingold), most is banned to national
parties
But still state and local parties use soft money
527s
Distinguishing Between a PAC and a 527
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PACs raise money to give to parties and
individual candidates
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Can be operated by any sort of group
Must donate to at least 5 different federal
candidates
Limits on amount of donations
527s run their own ads
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No limit on spending
Must not coordinate w/ parties or candidates
Step 2:
Hire Campaign Advisors
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Campaign manager
Media consultant / press spokesperson
Pollsters
Step 3:
Prepare for Primary (or Primaries)
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Keep raising money
Continue polling
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Select issues
Identify opponent’s weaknesses
Test media ads (focus groups)
Handle scandals
Travel
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Key primary/caucus states
Primary Campaigns:
The Delicate Balance
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Campaigning against people “on your team”
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If you win – may want support
If they win – you may want a JOB
Two types of primaries:
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“personality clash”
“ideological struggle”
Primaries and Caucuses
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Open and Closed Primaries
Caucuses (at least 11 states)
Both selecting party delegates to the national
party convention
Texas primaries technically closed, but you
declare partisanship by voting, so you can
switch right up to time you participate
Primaries and Caucuses 2008
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Dates
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Iowa, Nev, S.C., N.H. and Fla. – Jan.
Super Tuesday – Feb. 5 – 19 states
Texas: Mar. 4
Last, June 3 – Montana, S.D.
Presidential Public Funding:
Primary Season
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Eligibility requirements
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Must raise at least $5000 in each of 20 states
Contributions that “count” must be less than $250
Eligibility disappears if you bomb (<10%) in two consecutive
primaries
Presidential Election Campaign Fund matches all
donations of under $250
The catch: total spending limit during the primary
season (in 2000, $40.5 million)
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2004, both Kerry and Bush turned down public funding for
primary season
Step 4:
Win the Primary / Convention
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Usually know the outcome before the
convention actually takes place
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State delegates bound by primary/caucus results
Superdelegates usually commit in advance
Now your strategy shifts and you can focus on
your actual opponent
Re: Money . . . The rules change at this point
Step 5:
General Election Campaign
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Polling
Getting out the message:
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Broadcast media
Other advertising
Debates
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First televised??
Presidential Public Funding:
General Election
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Democratic and Republican nominees have two
choices for funding the general election
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Take the public funding and don’t spend any other money
No public funding . . . And no limits! (Perot in 1992)
Third party candidates
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If you received 5% or more of the vote in the previous election,
you’re eligible
If you receive 5% or more of the vote in *this* election, you can
get the money after the fact (John Anderson in 1980)
Amount depends on success in election
The Electoral College Process
Electoral College Composition
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# of electors from state = # of House reps + # of
Senators (always 2)
District of Columbia gets 3 electors
Each party submits slate of electors for state, so you
are really voting for that slate of electors
Winner takes all electors in every state except
Nebraska and Maine
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NE and ME: two “at large” electors, remainder selected by
Congressional district
Example: Texas
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Texas has 32 reps in the
House
So 32 + 2 = 34 electors
Second only to CA, NY has
31
Electors chosen by the
parties at their state
conventions
Vote: 34% Bush, 33% Kerry,
33% Nader . . .
All 34 electors for Bush
Special Requirements
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Electors cast vote for President and separate
vote for VP
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Electors cannot vote for BOTH a President and a
VP from their home state
Must have a majority to win (not just a plurality)
No majority for President: House of Reps chooses
among top 3 vote-getters
No majority for VP: Senate chooses among top 2
vote-getters
Doing the Math . . .
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435 House Members + 100 Senators + 3 D.C.
Electors = 538 Electors Total
50% = 269 Electoral Votes
50% + 1 = 270 Electoral Votes (needed to win)
Arguments Against the Electoral
College
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Voters in territories (Guam, Am Samoa, VI, etc.)
disenfranchised
Can win the electoral college w/out winning popular
vote (as in 2000)
Loss of confidence in system
“Faithless Electors”
Small states (population-wise) have an advantage:
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Wyoming: 3 EC votes, 1 per 165,000 citizens
California: 55 EC votes, 1 per 617,000 citizens
Arguments in Favor of Electoral
College
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Candidates have to have broad geographic
support
May reduce cost of election
May reduce corruption
Arguments Against the Electoral
College
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Voters in territories (Guam, Am Samoa, VI, etc.)
disenfranchised
Can win the electoral college w/out winning popular
vote (as in 2000)
Loss of confidence in system
“Faithless Electors”
Small states (population-wise) have an advantage:
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Wyoming: 3 EC votes, 1 per 165,000 citizens
California: 55 EC votes, 1 per 617,000 citizens
Candidate Competition:
How Voters Decide
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Partisan Loyalty
Issues
Government performance
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Prospective / retrospective voting
Candidate Characteristics
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Appearance
Insider / outsider
Character (integrity, honor, faith, etc.)
Importance of Context
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Economy
Threats to safety, at home and abroad
What Does It Mean . . .
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People vote by
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Party
Performance of government (blamed on incumbent)
Broad issues, specifically “party image” issues
People don’t vote by
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Candidate characteristics
Issue specifics