Transcript Planning Update - North East Independent School District

Planning Update
Prepared by Anthony A. Athens III
Director of Planning
September 10, 2007
Topics
• Enrollment
• Housing & Land Use
• Boundary Planning
2007-08 Total Enrollment
• Today’s Enrollment: 61,807
• October 2006 Enrollment: 61,006
• Enrollment Growth: 801 ; 1.3%
• Projected October 2007 Enrollment: 63,081
• Difference: -1,274 ; -2.0%
Metrostudy
• Physical Inspection of All Active
Subdivisions Every Quarter
• Methodology
– Starts = Slab Poured
– Closings = New Evidence of Habitation
– Inventory = Model, Vacant, Under Construction
– Vacant Developed Lot = Streets & Utilities In
Metrostudy Housing Data
North East ISD
2500
2000
1500
STARTS
CLOSINGS
INVENTORY
1000
500
Developed Lots = 3,544
Future Lots = 4,315
2Q
20
07
1Q
20
07
4Q
20
06
3Q
20
06
2Q
20
06
1Q
20
06
4Q
20
05
3Q
20
05
2Q
20
05
0
SA Research
• SA Research Has Extensive Experience
Analyzing Local Land Use Trends
• Has Been One Of NEISD’s Primary
Sources Of Housing Data For Nearly
Twenty Years
• Anticipated Housing Growth Is A Primary
Input For Enrollment Forecasting Models
Projected NEISD Single Family Homes
130000
120000
110000
100000
90000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Land Use
•
Intensive Effort to Map All Land Use North of Loop 1604,
Using Many Data Sources
– 2007 Bexar Appraisal District Parcel File
– 2007 Bexar Metro 911 Street File
– 2006 City of San Antonio Aerial Photography
•
All Subdivisions: Built-out, Active, Future
•
All Other Land Uses:
–
–
–
–
–
•
Apartments
Commercial
Governmental
Flood Plain
Etc.
By Elimination, Outlines Remaining Land With Development Potential
Land Use North of Loop 1604
Ti mbe rwo od
Park
Maje stic
Oa ks
Rid ge a t
Can yon S pri ngs
Te rra
Bell a
Park H ill s
Mesa s at
Can yon S pri ngs
Encl ave
Leg en d Oaks
Mans ion s at
Can yon S pri ngs
Bent
Tre e
Panth er Cr eek
at S to ne Oa k
Oa kla nd s
Pino n
Cre ek
Can yon s at
Sto ne Oa k
Enci no R id ge
Rid ge a t
Sto ne Oa k
Sto ne
Can yon
Sadd le
Moun tain
Vill ag e in
th e Hi ll s
Cha mpi on
Spri ngs
Vill ag e at
Enci no Pa rk
Vill ag e on
th e Gle n
Gl en a t
Sto ne Oa k
Hig hl an dsTo scan a
of Sonte rra
Hil ls
Vill as o f
at S onte rra,
Sonte rra
Knig hts
Cro ss
Enci no Bl uff
Enci no
Rio
Fo x Gr ove
Enci no C ree k
Enci no
Mesa
Vill ag e at
Cac tu s Blu ff
La Fon tana
Nor th wo od H ill s
Te rrace s of Enc ino Park
Bristol Ca nyon
at E nci no Cav alo Cre ek
Com mon s Estates
Th e Vie w
at E nci no
Com mon s
Bulv erd e Cre ek
Summi t
Enci no For est &
Woo ds of Enc ino Park
Hol lo w at
Enci no Pa rk
Oa ks at
Fo rest at
Enci no
Enci no Pa rk
Park
Bree zes of Son terra
Sto ne
Vall ey
Fo ssil Cre ek
Evan s
Ran ch
Vistas o f En cin o Pa rk
Vill ag es at
Spri ngs a t Sto ne Oa k
Sto ne Oa k
Pinn acl e
Sto ne Oa k
Parke
Enci no
Ran ch
Can yon R im
Las L oma s
Moun t A rrow hea d
Peak a t
Promo ntory
Fo ssil Rid ge
Vall itas a t
Cib ol o Ca nyo n
Th e Man sio ns
Estates at
Can yon R id ge
Sto ne
Moun tain
Alta
Sto ne
Promo ntory
Oa k
Poin te
Arrow he ad
Cre scen t
Oa k
Estates of
Arrow he ad
Pala cio s at
Cib ol o Ca nyo n
Cie lo s at
Suen os a t
Cib ol o Ca nyo n
Cib ol o Ca nyo n
Cli ffs o f C ib olo
Cha mpi on s
Th e Abb ey
Vill ag e
To wn hom es at S to ne Oa k
Mesa V erde
Cre scen t
Rid ge
Sto ne Oa k
Mead ow s
Win che ste r Hi lls
Estates at
Cha mpi on s Ru n
Cha mpi on s
Rid ge
Promo ntory
Hei gh ts
Promo ntory
Res erve
Venta na s a t
Cib ol o Ca nyo n
Nor th wi nd
Estates
Echo C an yon
Summi t
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Blac kha wk
Moun tain Lo dge Vill as
Fa irw ay
Brid ge
Rem ing ton
Mesa V ista
Hei gh ts
Wil dern es s
Poin te
Moun tain
Lod ge
Las H aci en das
Cha mpi on s
Rid ge
Vill as
Rid ge a t H ard y Oa k
Park at
Har dy Oak
Mesa Gra nd e
Ove rlo ok
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Cre ekh ave n
San Mi gu el
Retre at at
Can yon S pri ngs
Pali sad es
Ga rde ns at Ston e Oak
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Stra tfo rd
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Cre ekh ave n
Send ero Ra nch
Tu scan y He igh ts
Waterfo rd
Hei gh ts
Ench an te d Sta tely
Oa ks
Oa ks
Retre at
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Blac kha wk
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Prestwi ck
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Tu rnb erry
Summe rgl en
Tra il s at
Can yon S pri ngs
Leg acy Oak s Refl ectio ns
Vistas o f
Sto ne Oa k
Lin ks
Estanc ia
Ti mbe r Oa ks No rth
Fo rest at
Sto ne Oa k
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Poin t
Waters a t
Can yon S pri ngs
Estates
Hil ls o f Ston e Oak
& S to ne C ree k
Rid ge a t
Enci no Pa rk
Fo rest Vil la ge
at E nci no Pa rk
Oa ks at Son te rra
Bulv erd e Cre ek
Woo dvi ew
Park H ill a t
Enci no Pa rk
Mead ow s
of Sonte rra
Blan co
Cro ssin g
Gre yston e
Sto ne M ano rVistas
at S onte rra of Sonte rra
Midl an ds
of Sonte rra
Cro sstimb er at
Rog ers R an ch
Ren na isa nce
Encl ave a t
th e Vin eya rd
Provi nce
Nap a Fore st &
Sien na Woo ds
Ros ehe art
Qu arry a t Iron
Moun tain Ra nch
Ga rde ns
at S onte rra
Gre en svie w
at S onte rra
Waters
Estates
of Sonte rra of Sonte rra
La C ier ra
Encl
ave
at S onte rra
Sonte rra Vi lla s
Woo ds of Sonte rra
Th e Lo dg e
of Sonte rra
Cla rem ore
at S onte rra
Seve nth
at S onte rra
Tu scan y
Hil ls
Fa irw ays
of Sonte rra
Iro n Mo unta in
Ran ch
Th e Mon tecri sto
Fa ll ing Broo k
at R og ers R an ch
Th e Mar qui s at
Rog ers R an ch
Vine yard
Spri ngs
Rav ini a
La D olc e
Vita
Th e Oaks
of Red la nd
Red la nd
Rid ge
Red la nd
Woo ds
Cos ta B ell a at
th e Vin eya rd
Send ero
Rid ge
Red la nd
Hei gh ts
Emera ld
Fo rest
Ga rde ns at
Emera ld Fo rest
Bulv erd e
Ga rde ns
NEISD N of 1604
Streets
Subdivisions
ACTIVE
BUILT OUT
FUTURE
Apartments
COMPLETED
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Quarries
Parcels North of 1604
BEXAR
BEXAR MET
CHURCH
COMMERCIAL
COSA
CPS
GOLF
HOA
HOSPITAL
NEISD
OTHER EXEMPT
RESIDENTIAL
SARA
SCHOOL
TEXAS
USA
Flood Plain
Land Use North of Loop 1604
Ti mbe rwo od
Park
Maje stic
Oa ks
Rid ge a t
Can yon S pri ngs
Te rra
Bell a
Park H ill s
Retre at at
Can yon S pri ngs
Mesa s at
Can yon S pri ngs
Encl ave
Leg en d Oaks
Bent
Tre e
Panth er Cr eek
at S to ne Oa k
Promo ntory
Hei gh ts
Sto ne
Moun tain
Fa irw ay
Brid ge
Oa kla nd s
Th e Man sio ns
Estates at
Can yon R id ge
Enci no
Ran ch
Pino n
Cre ek
Can yon s at
Sto ne Oa k
Enci no R id ge
Fo ssil Cre ek
Evan s
Ran ch
Vistas o f En cin o Pa rk
Vill ag es at
Spri ngs a t Sto ne Oa k
Sto ne Oa k
Rid ge a t
Sto ne Oa k
Las L oma s
Peak a t
Promo ntory
Sto ne
Can yon
Sadd le
Moun tain
Knig hts
Cro ss
Fo x Gr ove
Enci no C ree k
Vill ag e at
Enci no Pa rk
La Fon tana
Bulv erd e Cre ek
Summi t
Enci no For est &
Woo ds of Enc ino Park
Hol lo w at
Enci no Pa rk
Oa ks at
Fo rest at
Enci no
Enci no Pa rk
Park
Bree zes of Son terra
Hig hl an dsTo scan a
of Sonte rra
Hil ls
Vill as o f
at S onte rra,
Sonte rra
Enci no Bl uff
Enci no
Rio
Enci no
Mesa
Vill ag e on
th e Gle n
Nor th wo od H ill s
Te rrace s of Enc ino Park
Bristol Ca nyon
at E nci no Cav alo Cre ek
Com mon s Estates
Th e Vie w
at E nci no
Com mon s
Vill ag e in
th e Hi ll s
Vill ag e at
Cac tu s Blu ff
Cha mpi on
Spri ngs
Gl en a t
Sto ne Oa k
Pinn acl e
Sto ne Oa k
Parke
Fo ssil Rid ge
Vall itas a t
Cib ol o Ca nyo n
Can yon R im
Alta
Sto ne
Oa k
Arrow he ad
Moun t A rrow hea d
Sto ne
Vall ey
Pala cio s at
Cib ol o Ca nyo n
Cie lo s at
Suen os a t
Cib ol o Ca nyo n
Cib ol o Ca nyo n
Cli ffs o f C ib olo
Cha mpi on s
Th e Abb ey
Vill ag e
To wn hom es at S to ne Oa k
Mesa V erde
Cre scen t
Rid ge
Sto ne Oa k
Mead ow s
Win che ste r Hi lls
Estates at
Cha mpi on s Ru n
Cha mpi on s
Rid ge
Promo ntory
Poin te
Cre scen t
Oa k
Estates of
Arrow he ad
Promo ntory
Res erve
Venta na s a t
Cib ol o Ca nyo n
Nor th wi nd
Estates
Echo C an yon
Summi t
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Blac kha wk
Moun tain Lo dge Vill as
Las H aci en das
Rem ing ton
Mesa V ista
Hei gh ts
Wil dern es s
Poin te
Moun tain
Lod ge
Mans ion s at
Can yon S pri ngs
Cha mpi on s
Rid ge
Vill as
Rid ge a t H ard y Oa k
Park at
Har dy Oak
Mesa Gra nd e
Ove rlo ok
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Cre ekh ave n
San Mi gu el
Pali sad es
Ga rde ns at Ston e Oak
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Stra tfo rd
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Cre ekh ave n
Send ero Ra nch
Tu scan y He igh ts
Waterfo rd
Hei gh ts
Ench an te d Sta tely
Oa ks
Oa ks
Retre at
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Blac kha wk
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Prestwi ck
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Tu rnb erry
Summe rgl en
Tra il s at
Can yon S pri ngs
Leg acy Oak s Refl ectio ns
Vistas o f
Sto ne Oa k
Lin ks
Estanc ia
Ti mbe r Oa ks No rth
Fo rest at
Sto ne Oa k
Bulv erd e Vil la ge
Poin t
Waters a t
Can yon S pri ngs
Estates
Hil ls o f Ston e Oak
& S to ne C ree k
Rid ge a t
Enci no Pa rk
Fo rest Vil la ge
at E nci no Pa rk
Oa ks at Son te rra
Bulv erd e Cre ek
Woo dvi ew
Park H ill a t
Enci no Pa rk
Mead ow s
of Sonte rra
Blan co
Cro ssin g
Gre yston e
Tu scan y
Hil ls
Cro sstimb er at
Rog ers R an ch
Ren na isa nce
Sto ne M ano rVistas
at S onte rra of Sonte rra
Midl an ds
of Sonte rra
Seve nth
at S onte rra
Encl ave a t
th e Vin eya rd
Provi nce
Nap a Fore st &
Sien na Woo ds
Fa irw ays
of Sonte rra
Ros ehe art
Qu arry a t Iron
Moun tain Ra nch
Ga rde ns
at S onte rra
Gre en svie w
at S onte rra
Fa ll ing Broo k
at R og ers R an ch
Rav ini a
Iro n Mo unta in
Ran ch
Waters
Estates
of Sonte rra of Sonte rra
La C ier ra
at S onte rra Encl ave
Sonte rra Vi lla s
Woo ds of Sonte rra
Th e Lo dg e
of Sonte rra
Cla rem ore
at S onte rra
Th e Mon tecri sto
Vine yard
Spri ngs
NEISD N of 1604
Streets
Subdivisions
ACTIVE
BUILT OUT
FUTURE
Apartments
COMPLETED
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Quarries
Parcels North of 1604
BEXAR
BEXAR MET
CHURCH
COMMERCIAL
COSA
CPS
GOLF
HOA
HOSPITAL
NEISD
OTHER EXEMPT
RESIDENTIAL
SARA
SCHOOL
TEXAS
USA
Flood Plain
La D olc e
Vita
Th e Oaks
of Red la nd
Red la nd
Rid ge
Red la nd
Woo ds
Cos ta B ell a at
th e Vin eya rd
Send ero
Rid ge
Emera ld
Fo rest
Ga rde ns at
Emera ld Fo rest
Red la nd
Hei gh ts
Bulv erd e
Ga rde ns
Th e Mar qui s at
Rog ers R an ch
Classen
Steubing
Yates
Schwab
Johnson High School
Boundary Planning Workflow
• Housing Projections by SA Research Already
Completed
• Contractor Produced Enrollment Projections by
Deskmap Systems Using Post-Labor Day Enrollment
Underway, due by September 19
• In-House Produced Enrollment Projections Using PostLabor Day Enrollment Underway
• Upon Completion of Enrollment Projections, Attendance
Boundary Analysis Will Proceed
Johnson High School
Boundary Planning Meetings
• Superintendent’s Lunch Meetings
– September 12, 11:30 am & September 25, 12:00 pm; NEEC
– Informal Meetings With Stakeholders Identified by
All Principals North of 1604
– Meetings to Discuss Boundary Concerns
– No Boundary Proposals Presented
• Public Hearings
–
–
–
–
October 3 & 17, 7:30 pm, Reagan HS Auditorium
Dates Chosen to Minimize Conflicts With Other School Activities
Boundary Proposals Presented
Public Feedback Solicited
Johnson High School
Boundary Planning Meetings
• Additional Public Hearing
– November 7, 7:30 pm, Reagan HS Auditorium
– Only If Needed
• Board of Trustees Vote
– We Anticipate Bringing A Recommendation to
The Board of Trustees For Their
Consideration At Their Regular Meeting on
November 12
Metrostudy Housing Data
North East ISD North of Loop 1604
1400
1200
1000
800
STARTS
CLOSINGS
INVENTORY
600
400
200
Developed Lots = 2,690
Future Lots = 3,377
2Q
20
07
1Q
20
07
4Q
20
06
3Q
20
06
2Q
20
06
1Q
20
06
4Q
20
05
3Q
20
05
2Q
20
05
0
Metrostudy Housing Data
North East ISD Bush/Lopez Attendance Areas
700
600
500
400
STARTS
CLOSINGS
INVENTORY
300
200
100
Developed Lots = 1,207
Future Lots = 1,283
2Q
20
07
1Q
20
07
4Q
20
06
3Q
20
06
2Q
20
06
1Q
20
06
4Q
20
05
3Q
20
05
2Q
20
05
0
Metrostudy Housing Data
North East ISD Tejeda Attendance Area
800
700
600
500
STARTS
CLOSINGS
INVENTORY
400
300
200
100
Developed Lots = 1,483
Future Lots = 2,094
2Q
20
07
1Q
20
07
4Q
20
06
3Q
20
06
2Q
20
06
1Q
20
06
4Q
20
05
3Q
20
05
2Q
20
05
0
Projected Single Family Homes North of 1604
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Projected NEISD Single Family Homes North of 1604
By Middle School Attendance Area
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
BUSH
LOPEZ
TEJEDA
Other Boundaries
• We May Examine Minor Refinements To
Elementary and Middle School Boundaries
• Any Needed Meetings Will Take Place
After The First Of The Year
Questions