Transcript Document

Learning and Earning for All:
Why the Fuss?
John Spierings
DUSSELDORP SKILLS FORUM
August 2007
Dusseldorp Skills Forum
 Established 1988 by Lend Lease shareholders
 Independent public interest enterprise
 Operating foundation with policy, research & practice
arms
 Focus: youth, skills, participation, citizenship
 Seeks: individual, community & policy change
 Catalyst for significant legislative, policy & practice
change in education and training
The challenge of youth transition
 Social & cultural induction to adulthood & workforce
 Successful transitions are taking longer
 First 12 months post-school are central to successful
transitions
 Economic impacts on participation & productivity:
returns from good transitions are very large
 Potential offset to looming demographic squeeze
 Demand for ‘knowledge workers’ outpacing others
Why the fuss NOW
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Unprecedented economic conditions & growth
Strong domestic demand for skills
International competitiveness dependent on skills
Others powering ahead on skills & education
We have education & training building blocks
Imperative to really deliver
Demographic squeeze looming
We are not running out of young people
16
1.6
1.5
14
A
Million persons
15-19 yos as % of 20-59 yos
15
13
12
B
C
1.4
11
1.3
10
'86
'96
'06
'16
'26
Year
2051
2049
2047
2045
2043
2041
2039
2037
2035
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1.2
Teenage population as a proportion of the workforce population,1986-2026
What young people are thinking
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Newspoll survey of Australians aged 18-24 years
Substantial qualitative work by Saulwick & Muller
Optimistic, confident & fearless about the future
Positive about final year at school, work & study*
Engagement significantly affected by early school
leaving, school type, parental background
 Significant disaffection among casual workers
 Some concerns about education costs
* Significantly higher levels of dissatisfaction by respondents from a government school about their final year at school
Some policy contradictions
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Australia’s excellence & equity gap
From mass schooling to universal provision
Attractions of the labour market
Poor resource allocation across sectors
Core standards alongside customised learning
Points of change in very large systems
Civic virtues of learning & instrumental outcomes
% of school leavers not in ft study or ft work
School leavers not fully engaged
40
35
30
Males
Females
25
Persons
20
15
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
Year
Slightly more than 26% of 2005 school-leavers were not in
study or work full-time in May 2006.
Completing Year 12 matters
% not studying & not working full-time
50
40
Yr12
30
Yr 11
Yr 10
20
10
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
20% of Y12 leavers; 45% of Y11 leavers; 50% of Y10 leavers not fully
engaged six months after leaving school: a major opportunity gap.
Growth in full-time jobs since 1995
% growth of full-time employment
150
120
15-19yo
20-24yo
25-64yo
90
60
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
Year
1.270 million full-time jobs created for 25-64 year olds since
1995; static full-time job growth for teenagers & decline of
42,000 for young adults.
Core attainment issues
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School or Cert III completion rate of 81 percent
Relatively static completions for more than a decade
Indigenous completion at half this rate
20th in OECD for school completion
46% of school leavers not in post-school study
47% overall traineeship completion rate
60% traditional apprenticeship completion rate
Estimated Year 12 completion
State
NSW
Victoria
Queensland
SA
WA
Tasmania
NT
ACT
Australia
Male
62
63
62
60
61
47
29
77
61
Female
73
77
73
77
72
58
37
83
73
Total
67
70
67
68
66
52
33
80
67
Source: National Report on Schooling 2005, MCEETYA, Table 32.
Core engagement issues
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Noticeable improvement in recent years
13.8% of teenagers not fully engaged
22% of young adults not fully engaged
27% of SA young adults not fully engaged
526,000 or 18% of 15-24 yo not fully engaged
306,000 or 11% of 15-24 yo unemployed,
underemployed or marginally attached to work
 1:3 Year 11 leavers & 2:5 Year 10 leavers not fully
engaged as young adults
The policy challenge
Subject to their ability, every young Australian will:
 Attain Year 12 or an AQF III qualification
 Be engaged in full-time work or learning or a
combination of these
 Be provided with the resources, relationships &
integrated pathways to achieve these outcomes
 Independent evaluation, research & good practice
approach reporting to parliament
What works …
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Relationships: mentoring & case management for transition
Organic stakeholder partnerships & shared responsibility
Leadership by school principals
Tracking post-school pathways: role of data
Clear exit procedures
Quality career advice & guidance
Local knowledge about pathways
Successful transition from primary school
Student-centred ‘middle years’
Making the economic case
Crunch Time proposals
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Establish Certificate III as a major benchmark
Encourage demand-side intermediaries
Develop cross-sectoral settings alongside schools
Provide a guaranteed second chance for young adults
Review the purpose of traineeships
Consider segmenting traineeships as skill pathfinders &
transitional labour market platforms
 Incremental change rather than sweeping reform
 Emphasis on evaluation, good practice & accountability
Final comments
 Young Australians are confident & fearless
 Early school leaving, school type & parental
background can significantly affect engagement
 Gaps around policy rhetoric & current resources
 Significant opportunity to address Australia’s 3Ps
 A robust national debate is crucial
 It’s up to us: the investment & policy decisions we
make will determine if youth confidence is justified