Transcript Regional briefings - Monash University

Has the economic downturn influenced
school-leaver destinations?
Presentation to the CEET Annual Conference
30 October 2009
Trish Corrie (DEECD) & Phillip McKenzie (ACER)
Table 1: Unemployment rate by age group,
Victoria, Sept 2008 to Sept 2009 (%)
Age
group
Sept
2008
Dec
2008
March
2009
June
2009
Sept
2009
15-64
15-19
4.4
11.9
4.5
13.3
5.4
18.3
5.9
17.8
5.9
19.7
Source: ABS
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Youth labour market changes
• Teenage unemployment has risen more sharply
than general unemployment
• Broadly consistent with changes in youth
education and employment patterns in previous
downturns
• Early school leavers likely to be most at risk
• Need to monitor changes, feed information back
to education providers, & target support to those
at risk
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On Track is….
• An annual Victorian post-school destination
survey for Year 12 completers and early
leavers
• Incoming Bracks Government initiative to
provide destination information to schools,
parents and students
• First survey 2003
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On Track Objectives
In addition to the information commitment:
• Provide data on trends of post-school
destinations over time
• Provide evidence of relationships between
curriculum, location, gender, achievement and
SES, and destinations
• Design longitudinal studies to better understand
relationships
• Offer a referral service to those at risk
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Main features
• In scope?
• Consent process
• Data aids Government schools to set transition
targets for specific cohorts and measure progress
towards targets
• And DEECD corporate performance for Year 12
and early leaver transitions to education, training
or full time employment is measured using On
Track data
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Methodology
• Annual Year 12 and early leaver sample subject to bias
check
• Telephone surveys conducted in April and May each year
preceded by Victoria wide FM radio campaign to remind
consenting students to participate when called. Parents as
proxies may give current destination only
• Questionnaire development involves DEECD policy units
each year
• Questionnaire pilot tested and ongoing briefings while in
the field
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Table 2: Respondents & response rates
Consented
Interviewed
Response
Rate
2009
44 968
36 022
80.1%
2008
43 607
33 249
76.2%
2009
8 857
4 676
52.8%
2008
8 866
Year 12 or equivalent completers
Early leavers
4 470
53.5%
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Figure 1: Destinations of Year 12 completers
Victoria: 2008 and 2009
60
55
50
Per cent of Year 12 completers
45
44.1
45.9
40
35
30
25
20
14.4 14.3
15
12.6
11.5
13.8
9.0
10
3.7
5
3.8
5.8
4.7
4.1
3.3
3.8
5.1
0
University
VET Cert IV+
VET entrylevel
Apprentice
2008
Trainee
Working full- Working part- Looking for
time
time
work
2009
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Year 12 completers and
the current economic situation
• ‘How has the current economic situation
influenced your decisions about what to do
after leaving school?’
• 22.4% said that it has had an influence on
their decisions
• In what ways? …
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Figure 3: Year 12 completers and
the current economic situation
Per cent of those influenced by current economic situation
30
25
20
17.4
15.0
15
13.9
13.4
9.9
10
7.3
6.7
7.6
5
0
Job/hours
more
important
Can't find a
job
Chosen
different
career path
Considering Encouraged Now looking Worried about
different
me to
at options
jobs
career path consider study
Can't say
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Figure 2: Destinations of Year 12 completers
Deferrals: Victoria (2008 and 2009)
60
55
50
49.3
45.5
Per cent of deferrals
45
40.7
40
35.4
35
30
25
20
15
11.0
8.3
10
5.5
5
4.4
0
Employed full-time
Employed part-time
2008
Looking for work
NILFET*
2009
*Not in the labour force, education or training. This group is not included in other destination statistics. In
2008 seven deferrals were undertaking an apprenticeship or traineeship; they are not included here.
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Figure 4: Destinations of early leavers
Victoria: 2008 and 2009
60
55
50
Per cent of early leavers
45
40
33.2
35
30.3
30
25
18.7
20
15.4
15
11.0
13.0
12.5
10
5
7.3
3.6
5.0
15.5 15.0
14.0
5.5
0
VET Cert IV+
VET entry-level
Apprentice
Trainee
2008
Employed full- Employed part- Looking for work
time
time
2009
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Early leavers and
the current economic situation
• ‘How has the current economic situation
influenced your decisions about what to do
after leaving school?’
• 23.0% said that it has had an influence on
their decisions.
• In what ways? …
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Figure 5: Early leavers and the
current economic situation (Victoria)
Per cent of those influenced by current economic situation
30
25
21.1
19.4
20
15
13.3
10.7
10
7.9
7.9
5.8
5
4.7
4.3
0
Job/hours
more
important
Can't find a job
Can't say
Chosen
different
career path
Considering
different
career path
Decided to Apprenticeship Encouraged
work before hard to find me to consider
study
study
Other
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Conclusions
• Impact evident in increased education
participation, decreased apprenticeships &
traineeships, decreased employment, increased
unemployment
• Increase in deferrals of tertiary education, but
reduced capacity to finance entry
• Impact more marked for early leavers than
completers
• Implications for preparing leavers and early
intervention for those at-risk
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On Track queries and publication details
Please direct questions or comment to:
Dr Trish Corrie
On Track Project Manager
t: 03.9637.2802
e: [email protected]
All On Track publications are available at:
http://www.education.vic.gov.au/sensecyouth/ontrack
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