Transcript Introduction to Project Management

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o
P.I.I.M.T
American University of Leadership
Ahmed Hanane, MBA, Eng, CMA, Partner
email: [email protected]
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Risk Management
07-02
After completing this chapter, students will be
able to:
 Define project risk.
 Recognize four key stages in project risk
management and the steps necessary to manage
risk.
 Understand five primary causes of project risk
and four major approaches to risk identification.
 Recognize four primary risk mitigation
strategies.
 Explain the Project Risk Analysis and
Management (PRAM) process.
01-03
Risk management - the art and science
of identifying, analyzing, and
responding to risk factors throughout
the life of a project and in the best
interest of its objectives.
Project risk – any possible event that can
negatively affect the viability of a
project
01-04
Historical Damaging Tsunamis along
Japanese Coast (in last 150 years)
Name (Magnitude)
Meiji-Sanriku Earthquake and Tsunami (M8.5)
Year
1896
Dead or
Missing
22,000
Showa-Sanriku Earthquake and Tsunami (M8.1) 1933
3,064
Tonankai Earthquake (M7.9)
1944
1,251 1)
Nankai Earthquake (M8.0)
1946
1,443 1)
1960
142
Tokachi-Oki Earthquake (M7.9)
1968
52 1)
Nihonkai-Cyubu Earthquake (M7.7)
1983
104 1)
Hokkaido-Nansei-oki Earthquake (M7.8)
1993
230 1)
Chile Earthquake (Mw9.5)
2)
1) The number includes dead or missing from earthquakes.
2) Tsunami generated at far off Japanese coast.
8
Communication & Transmission of Tsunami Warning
to Localities & Civil Defense Authorities
TSUNAMI
ＷＡＲＮＩＮＧ
Local
government
Central Government
Signboard
TSUNAMI
ＷＡＲＮＩＮＧ
Radio
TSUNAMI
ＷＡＲＮＩ
ＮＧ
ＴＶ/Radio Station
TV（Telops, Warning maps）
13
Promoting Basic Knowledge
about “TSUNAMI” Disaster
+
Safe Evacuation
Route
Early Warning
=
Understanding of
Hazardous Areas
Appropriate Risk Awaweness of Local
Communities
Safe Evacuation
16
Pictogram on Tsunami
Tsunami Hazard Area
There is a high possibility to
be flooded in this area
when earthquake occurs.
Tsunami Evacuation Area
Safe place/hill for evacuation
against Tsunami.
Tsunami Evacuation Building
Building for evacuation
against Tsunami.
21
07-09
Figure 7.2
o What is likely to happen?
o What can be done?
o What are the warning signs?
o What are the likely outcomes?
Project Risk = (Probability of Event)(Consequences
of Event)
07-010
1.
Risk identification
2.
Analysis of probability and
consequences
3.
Risk mitigation strategies
4.
Control and documentation
07-011
 Commercial
 Execution
Financial
Technical
Contractual/Legal
Common Types
• Absenteeism
• Resignation
• Staff pulled away
• Time overruns
07-012
•
•
•
•
Skills unavailable
Ineffective Training
Specs incomplete
Change orders

Brainstorming meetings

Expert opinion

Past history

Multiple (or team based) assessments
07-013
07-14
1.
2.
Identify factors and assess the probability
(Pf ) and consequences (Cf) of failure
Calculate overall probability &
consequence
Pm  Pc  Pd
Pf 
3
3.
Cf 
Cc  Cs  Cr  C p
Calculate overall risk factor
RF  Pf  C f  ( Pf )(C f )
07-15
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
4
o Accept
o Minimize
o Share
o Transfer
o Contingency Reserves
oTask contingency
oManagerial contingency
o Mentoring
o Cross training
07-16
Help managers classify and codify risks,
responses, and outcomes
Change management report system answers
o What?
o Who?
o When?
o Why?
o How?
07-17
FIGURE 7.6 Contingency Document for Adjustments to Project Plan
07-18
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Extends risk management over project’s
life cycle
Key Features of PRAM
 Risk management follows a life cycle
 Risk management strategy changes over
the project life cycle
 Synthesized, coherent approach
07-19
1.Define
2.Focus
3.Identify
4.Structure
5.Clarify ownership of risks
6.Estimate
7.Evaluate
8.Plan
9.Manage
07-20
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
07-21
Define project risk.
Recognize four key stages in project risk
management and the steps necessary to
manage risk.
Understand five primary causes of
project risk and four major approaches
to risk identification.
Recognize four primary risk mitigation
strategies.
Explain the Project Risk Analysis and
Management (PRAM) process.