Transcript Document

Criminology Today
AN INTEGRATIVE INTRODUCTION
SEVENTH EDITION
EPILOGUE
Future Directions
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Future Studies Groups
• Futurist
 One who studies the future
 The task of the futurist is to effectively
distinguish among impending
possibilities and make realistic forecasts
• Future criminology
 The study of likely futures as they
impinge on crime and its control
continued on next slide
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Future Studies Groups
• World Future Society
• Society of Police Futurists International
(PFI)
• Futures Working Group (PFI/FBI joint
venture)
• Foresight program (in the UK)
• Future Crimes Institute
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Techniques of Futures Research
• Futures research
 a multidisciplinary branch of operations
research whose principal aim is to
facilitate long-range planning based on
• Forecasting from the past supported by
mathematical models
• Cross-disciplinary treatment of its subject
matter
continued on next slide
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Techniques of Futures Research
• Futures research
 a multidisciplinary branch of operations
research whose principal aim is to
facilitate long-range planning based on
• Systematic use of expert judgment
• A systems-analytical approach to its
problems
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Principles of the Futurist
Perspective
• The future is determined by a
combination of factors, including
human choice
• There are alternative futures
• We operate within an interdependent,
interrelated system
continued on next slide
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Principles of the Futurist
Perspective
• Tomorrow’s problems are developing
today
• We should regularly develop possible
responses to potential changes
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Techniques of Futures Research
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Trend extrapolation
Cross-impact analysis
The Delphi Method
Simulations and models
Environmental scanning
Scenario writing
Strategic assessment
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Future Crimes
• By 2025, socially significant crime in
the advanced nations will be
increasingly economic and computer
based
• The heads of 21st century criminal
organizations will be educated, highly
sophisticated, and computer literate
continued on next slide
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Future Crimes
• Identity manipulation will be a nexus of
future criminality
• Criminal organizations will have their
own satellites to coordinate drug
trafficking and money laundering
operations
continued on next slide
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Future Crimes
• Georgette Bennett predicts areas of
coming change
 Decline in street crime
 Increase in white-collar and high-tech
crime
 Increase in crimes by women and the
elderly
continued on next slide
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Future Crimes
• Georgette Bennett predicts areas of
coming change
 Shift in high crime rates from Frost Belt
to Sun Belt
 Safer cities, more crime in small towns
and rural areas
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
New Criminologies
• L. Edward Wells predicts that future
explanations of crime will be:
 More eclectic
 More comparative
 Predominantly individualist and
voluntaristic
 More applied and pragmatic
continued on next slide
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
New Criminologies
• L. Edward Wells predicts that future
explanations of crime will be:
 More oriented toward explaining whitecollar crime
 More emphasis placed on biological
factors
• Risk factor prevention paradigm
(Farrington)
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Crime-Control Policies of the
Future
• Key issues of concern:
New criminal groups
Language barriers
Distrust by ethnic communities
Greater reliance on community
involvement
 Regulating the marketplace
 Reducing public demand
 Increased treatment
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Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Can We Solve the Problem of
Crime?
• Criminology should be considered a
metascience, superior to the criminal
law rather than an auxiliary to it
• Criminologists today expect to work
with politicians and policy makers in
forging crime-control agendas based on
scientific knowledge and criminological
theorizing
continued on next slide
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Can We Solve the Problem of
Crime?
• Implementation of effective policies
may be difficult
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Cultural taboos
Interest groups with diverse agendas
Racial divisiveness
Groups that see crime as an accepted
way of doing business and do not
consider criminal activity stigmatizing
Criminology Today, 7th Edition
Frank Schmalleger
Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved