Transcript Research in Post Conflict Nations

Research in Post Conflict Nations
MRIA Presentation
June 18, 2008
These
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are part
a Navigator presentation
and are
incomplete
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oral commentary.
Introduction
Case studies
West Bank Gaza
Kosovo
Challenges
lessons for home and away
Overview
Research & training
using projects as a teaching tool
Emerging tools
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Questions & answers
Research.
Strategy.
Results.
Navigator
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Research-based strategy
firm that works with
companies, organizations
and governments to solve
corporate and public affairs
challenges.
At Navigator, we believe
research is fundamental to a
winning result.
The National Democratic
Institute for International
Affairs (NDI)
a non-profit organization working
to strengthen and expand
democracy worldwide
Our Partner
works with democrats in every
region of the world to build political
and civic organizations and
safeguard elections
3000+ employees in 60+ countries
around the world
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chaired by former US Secretary
of State, Madeleine Albright
Post conflict communities
have taught us lessons ...
about reaching hard to access
communities with severe socioeconomic challenges
breaking down barriers of
culture and language
Our Belief
innovative methodologies for
quality control
... that could apply to
Canada
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Aboriginal communities, new
Canadians
"The increasing number of
surveys and their frequency, I'd
argue hasn't translated into a
high quality of good
understanding' of Muslims
attitude and opinions."
The Environment
David Pollock
Washington Institute for Near
East Policy
Toronto Star, June 15 2008
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"Autocratic regimes in [the
Middle East] sometimes lean on
surveyors and respondents to
yield the results they want."
The Environment
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Prof. Mahmoud Eid
University of Ottawa
Toronto Star, June 15 2008
10 years of field experience in
Egypt
at the height of the Maoist
insurgency in Nepal in 2006,
U.S. political researcher Stan
Greenberg was hired to do
nationwide sampling by an
agency of the U.S. government.
His local staff were kidnapped
by the guerillas
The
Environment
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the ransom demand?
his polling data.
they paid, but only with
summaries, not the original data or
analysis
Case Study: West Bank/Gaza
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test Palestinian leadership
ballot test preferences for
PLC and
presidential elections
Sample Research
Objectives WBG
explore legitimacy of PA,
emergency government,
Hamas
implications of Hamas
takeover of
Gaza
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strengths/weaknesses of
Fateh
and Hamas
The study
24 months, $750,000
monthly quantitative, quarterly
qualitative
Most recent report
study of Palestinian Youth
conducted in May/June 2008
West Bank/Gaza
Study
Quantitative
survey of 1200 respondents
Qualitative
16 focus groups
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Sample completion
very difficult, especially in Gaza
Respondent confidence
peer approved response
Methodological
Challenges
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Field reporting issues
quality and speed
Only 17% employed
25% male, 8% female,
Unemployment challenges
57% say 'few jobs’
27% say discrimination
70% Politically inactive
Findings
[Quant]
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47% do not read newspaper
43% do not use Internet
61% intend to vote
60% Connected to
education
32% high school
23% university
5% other
88% Opposed to religion in
politics
Findings
[Quant]
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73% Opposed to politics in
the mosque
Deeper examination of
reasons for political
alienation, potential
motivating messages
Focus Groups
[Qual]
Study of possible
alternative communications
channels, role models, and
message delivery
Consideration of believable
'life choices' messages
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To be useful research needs to
operate within a long-term
structural framework
Regular sweeps of the same
audiences are essential to track
a fast moving environment
Discoveries
Quality assessment requires a
professional accountable to NDI
as well as a supporting local
supplier
Reporting to local partners on a
timely and transparent basis is
essential to credibility and
acceptance
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Case Study: Kosovo
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Political party standings
Favourability of leaders
Sample Research
Objectives: Kosovo
Identify potential election
issues
Viability of various coalitions
Final status of Kosovo
Reconciliation
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Annual qualitative review of
issues, leaders and
institutions
Election year quantitative
issues and leader surveys
2003-2008
Kosovo Study
2005 & 2008 National election
years
No comparable study of
public opinion
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providers work for embassies,
packaged goods and parties but
do not publish
Data collection
reports of fraud in previous
studies
perception of bias with local
providers
Ethnic divide
Methodological
Challenges
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separate research project
design for Albanian and Serbian
communities
Study timing
significant international events
impacting local public opinion
happening on weekly basis
Intention to vote dropping
turn out dropping 7-10% each
election
President’s popularity
overwhelming
his party’s support decreasing
Status quo will not hold
Findings
[Quant]
significant tensions brewing,
positive attitudes toward
international presence softening
Reconciliation
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no identifiable space for
agreement on future status
Leaders seen as corrupt
but retained high favourability
based on other criteria
Corruption is local & int’l
small scale in schools and
hospitals due to underfunding,
large scale by foreigners
Findings
[Qual]
History of conflict
role in the war dictates national
importance
Economics
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the key to progress and
reconciliation
Political party support
frozen
international administration means
elections are ‘not real’
Massive change afoot
significant urbanization and
changing demography altering
the values of the state(let)
Discoveries
Final status overwhelms
no space for domestic issues
with Final Status looming,
political leaders off the hook
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Quality control
everything is political in Kosovo
The environment is
politically unstable ?
when the personal security risk
is high ?
when families and individuals
might be displaced ?
How do you do
research when ...
when national issues trump local
and personal concerns ?
when clients, media and society
are skeptical of your research ?
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Quality control
coping with no street addresses,
bad phone numbers, long
collection periods and difficult
samples
Quantitative
Technical
Challenges
finding partners and quality
control measures to protect your
data from collection to analysis
Qualitative
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identifying facilities, recruiters
and moderators who can
support your project
Language
Cultural norms
difficulty of dialogue,
transparency
Local custom and practice
Project
Challenges
gender, clan/community,
ethnicity
hierarchy
group dynamics
Bias
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researcher’s bias, actual or
perceived
Donor
strong point of view
Political parties and
government(s)
hyper-sensitivity to criticism
NGO’s, local media
multiple users with diverse
agendas
Audience(s)
Society
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few established norms for
debate
introduce issues important to
society, but not debated by
elite(s)
Make key audiences your
partners
political leadership, NGO’s,
media
Observers
Research as
Training
to protect against bias
to encourage the use of the data
independently
Training
what are the limits of the tools ?
how can they be used ?
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Low cost + broad access
Online
Facebook in Egypt
SMS
Emerging Tools
election observation tool
dominant mobile phone
presence
dynamic social network
Email
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common use of ‘free mail’
access to IM and telephony
applications
Lessons Learned
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The truth hurts
do they want to know ?
Quality costs time & money
redundancy and direct int’l
participation needs to be built
into your project plan
3. Scope & Scale
Lessons for ‘Away’
you will need to set a long
baseline, use multiple
methodologies and
accommodate unusually large
research objectives
4. Reporting is teaching
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role for media, NGO’s and
clients
Special communities need
a special approach
balance of external and internal
research team
Training has a benefit
Lessons for ‘Home’
improved confidence in results
and the tool & a higher degree
of ownership in the findings
Sample design
homogeneity of lifestyle over
region or other cohort
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Chad Rogers
British Colonial Building, Third Floor
Eight Wellington St. E., Toronto, Canada M5E1C5
direct 416-642-5000 email [email protected]
fax 416-642-6435 web www.navltd.com
Research | Strategy | Results