Transcript Shaw Managing Risk - AASHTO

Jeffrey Shaw, P.E.
Safety & Design TST
Risk Management for Highway Design
“RISK”
A factor, element, or course involving uncertainty
regarding harm, loss, danger or damage
Risk Management Test for Design
1. Does your agency have adequate and dynamic
processes in place to identify existing and new
risks faced?
2. Does your agency have the right balance of
arrangements in place to deal with these risks?
3. Does your agency have an adequate framework
for risk analysis and evaluation to support
decision-making processes?
Source: "Guide to Risk Assessment and Allocation for Highway Construction Management", FHWA-PL-06-032
Risk Management Characteristics
• Explicitly addresses uncertainty
• Based on the best available information
• Part of the decision-making process
• Systematic, structured, and an integral part of
organizational processes
• Dynamic, iterative, responsive to change, and capable of
continual improvement and enhancement
• Accounts for human factors
• Transparent and inclusive
Risk-oriented Highway Design
• Not a new concept
• May involve different approaches and viewpoints
 Who or what is “at risk” and what is the core motivation
– Safety of Facility Users (i.e. motorists, pedestrians, etc.)?
– Road Agency (tort liability concerns)?
• Underlying theme is addressing the risk
 Implication is that relying solely on standards does not
guarantee a facility free of risk
 Identifying/defining the risk is essential for managing
the risk
Fundamental Aspects
• Understanding Design Risk involves:
 Knowing the basis and assumptions underlying the
standards
 Defining the conditions of the project
– Physical
– Traffic
– Safety
Identify & Characterize the Degree of Risk
• What are the variables that influence Risk?
• Exposure
 Traffic Volume
 Location
 Duration
• Deviation from Nominal
 Degree of variance
• Severity of Outcome
 Possible worst-case scenario
Assessing Design Risks
• Assessing the probability and severity of adverse
consequences associated with activities,
recommendations or designs.
• Does not need to be a complicated quantitative
assessment, but rather a practical assessment based
on experience, engineering judgment and historical
standard of practice.
• To the extent possible, risks should be quantified,
both on the basis of their potential probability and for
their potential consequences.
Risk-based Safety Analysis Tools
• Safety Effects Studies
 horizontal alignment
 vertical alignment
 cross-section
 intersections
• IHSDM (ihsdm.org)
 Includes crash prediction, design
consistency and capacity calc
• Highway Safety Manual
Risk-based Safety Analysis Tools
• Latest Research and Best Practices
• Design-stage Road Safety Audits
Safety Performance Evolution
NOMINAL SAFETY
SUBSTANTIVE SAFETY
examined in reference to
compliance with standards,
warrants, guidelines and
sanctioned design procedures
actual or expected crash frequency
and severity for a highway or
roadway segment or intersection
RSAs Add Value to a Project
• Compromises and constraints are a normal part of
transportation budgeting
• RSAs demonstrate the safety implications of
roadway elements
• RSAs ensure that safety is an explicit
consideration, and that safety does not “fall
through the cracks”
• RSA focus corresponds to stage of project
Early Stage RSAs
• PRECONSTRUCTION
 planning / feasibility
 preliminary (draft) design
 detailed design
• CONSTRUCTION
 work zones
 pre-opening
• EXISTING
 in-operation reviews
HIGH VALUE!
Integrating RSA + VE
• Consider the sequence scenarios of conducting
both an RSA and a VE study on the same project
• Possible Outcomes:
1. RSA conducted before VE
2. VE conducted before RSA
3. RSA and VE conducted in
concert, with separate
teams of individuals
• http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/rsa/resources.htm
Considering Risk of Design Exceptions
• Evaluating design exceptions in determining
whether:
 An appropriate criterion for a CORRIDOR is less than
the minimum normally applicable (design speed,
roadway width)
 An appropriate design value to use at a LOCATION is
less than the minimum standard (curve radius,
gradient)
Common Denominator of Highway Design
• Effectively dealing with the “TRADE-OFFS”
 Adding lanes vs. minimizing property takes
 Clear zones vs. preserving mature trees
 Property access vs. high mobility
 Designing for vehicle traffic vs. accommodating other
user groups
Design Controls with High-Reward Potential
• Functional Classification
• Design Speed
• Design Traffic
• Design Vehicle
• Design User
Design Risk Management Process
IDENTIFY
MEASURE
MANAGE
MITIGATE
Link Between Risk Mgt and Flexible Design
• Helps deliver both a PROJECT and a PROGRAM
• Underlies a National Priority (FHWA and
AASHTO)
• Allows consideration of a wider range of
alternatives and design options
• Facilitates cost-effectiveness, with emphasis on
increasing safety & efficiency
Recognition of Risk-Reward Basis
“It is not feasible or
intended
for
highway
projects to be entirely riskfree, as there are potential
rewards to the project
when risk is taken.“
Using Risk Mgt to Improve Design
• “In many cases, the risks associated with
decisions can be mitigated with inclusion or
enhancement of other features, which may
offset the risk.”
• “The evaluation of risk is an interdisciplinary
process requiring involvement of project team
members and stakeholders based on the
specific issues and an evaluation of risk
tolerability.”
A Peer Model
• Requires a Plan/Process
• Identify Related Risks
• Analyze in terms of Severity and Likelihood
• Decide and Document
• Permits either Quantitative or Qualitative
Assessments
Related Training & Technical Assistance
FY2010 NHI #380095
Highway Design: Applying
Flexibility & Risk Management
FHWA Resource Center Safety & Design Team
www.fhwa.gov/resourcecenter/