Transcript Slide 1

What Water Problem?
A Multi-Dimensional Perspective on Critical Water
Issues in the Upper Vaal Catchment
Prof. Anthony Turton
Director: TouchStone Resources (Pty) Ltd
[email protected]
www.anthonyturton.com
© AR Turton, 2009 (except images used with permission from Pete Ashton
South Africa is ...
• Highly water constrained.
• Has an economy that has been built on a
model in which costs have been
externalized for over a century.
• Has a poor human rights record.
• Has left the mining sector to self-regulate.
• Approaching a fundamental transition in
which externalized costs are now being
internalized (e.g. Eskom tariff’s).
World Water Scarcity 1990
Water scarcity is related to population growth as much
as it is related to environmental factors
World Water Scarcity 2020
Note the Cuvelai and the Limpopo River Basin’s both
pass into extreme stress because of population growth
World Water Scarcity 2050
Note the Orange River Basin now joins the Limpopo
as extremely stressed systems
World Water Scarcity 2070
At this stage the most economically active portion of
South Africa resembles the Middle East North Africa
Africa’s fundamental
development
constraint is the
conversion of
precipitation (MAP)
to runoff (MAR).
Evaporation
Precipitation
Streamflow
Large Dams in Shared Basins
Zimbabwe
(25)
Namibia
(7)
Mozambique
(2)
Botswana
(3)
Orange-Senqu
Limpopo
Incomati
Maputo
Swaziland
(5)
Lesotho
(3)
N
South Africa
(497)
Key
Shared river basin
500 km
© P.J. Ashton
Episodic river
South Africa: Rainfall and Runoff
(Ashton et al., 2008)
Rainfall
(mm)
Runoff
(mm)
MAR : MAP
(%)
Orange-Senqu
332
17
5.1
Limpopo
567
29
5.1
Incomati
763
99
13.0
Maputo
770
109
14.1
Rest of RSA
626
76
12.1
RSA + Lesotho
474
40
8.5
Basin
Highly variable rainfalls; unequally distributed
1. Exceptionally low conversion of rainfall to runoff
Runoff and Water Capture (Ashton et al., 2008)
Runoff
Volume
(106 m3)
10 609
No. of
large
dams
Dam
Volume
(106 m3)
Dam :
Runoff (%)
138
20 550
193.7
Limpopo
5 295
100
3 060
57.8
Incomati
2 851
27
440
15.4
Maputo
1 888
8
3 068
162.5
Rest of RSA
29 535
227
9 876
33.4
RSA + Lesotho
50 177
500
36 995
73.7
Basin
Orange-Senqu
1. Numerous large
2. High proportion
dams – small dams not included
of runoff is impounded in large dams
Water Crowding Index (Ashton et al., 2008)
Water Crowding Index (WCI) = Number of people per million
cubic metres of water
2000
River Basin
Population
WCI
Orange-Senqu 11 319
1 183
Limpopo
11 906
4 219
Incomati
1 122
1 552
Maputo
1 165
1 376
2025
Population WCI
19 502
1 803
18 790
4 974
1 933
2 310
2 009
2 366
WCI values:
0 – 100 = Water security
100 – 500 = Water sufficiency
500 – 1 000 = Occasional, seasonal water stress
1 000 – 2 000 = Frequent water stress; seasonally severe
> 2 000 = “Beyond the water barrier” - chronic water stress
Current (2000) and Projected
(2025) RSA Water Needs (Ashton, 2009)
2000 (106 m3)
Basin
Available Needs
2025 (106 m3)
Shortfall
Shortfall/
Available Needs
/Surplus
Surplus
Orange-Senqu
9 568
9 208
+ 360
10 816
11 579
- 763
Limpopo
2 585
2 771
- 186
3 778
3 703
+ 75
Incomati
723
972
- 249
837
1 017
- 180
Maputo
847
468
+ 379
849
480
+ 369
13 723
13 419
+ 304
16 280
16 779
- 499
Total:
1.
Additional 18.6 % of available water - “imports” from within
RSA and construction of new dams
2.
Demand in 2025 outstrips supply by 499 million cubic metres
Percentage Increase in Water
Needs by sector - 2025 (Ashton, 2009)
River Basin
Urban
Rural
Irrigation
Mining +
Power
Forestry
Industry Generation
2000 to 2025
Orange-Senqu
+ 77
- 10
- 7
- 10
+ 37
0
Limpopo
+ 146
+ 27
+9
+ 30
+ 26
+3
Incomati
+ 145
+ 3
+5
+ 5
0
+5
Maputo
+ 126
- 3
- 3
+ 1
0
- 4
1. Dramatic increase in urban sector demand for water in all basins
2. Large increase in power sector demand for water in the Orange-Senqu
and Limpopo basins
3. Increased water demands from rural and mining sectors in
Limpopo basin
Water Demand in South Africa
80
?
Water demand (Billion m3 / Year)
Requires new sources of water (? Imports)
+ radical changes to water use patterns
60
Total surface water + groundwater resources
+ maximum recycling
(Requires new water storage
and treatment technologies)
40
Surface water + some groundwater
+ some recycling
(Existing technology)
Low water
use estimate
[No change in
per capita use]
20
0
1965
© P.J. Ashton
1985
2005
Years
Possible
extension of
time with
intensive WC
and WDM
2025
2045
Quality Problems in Shared Basins
G = Groundwater contamination
- fluoride and/or nitrate
T = Acidic atmospheric deposits
U = Urban / industrial effluent
– pathogens + nutrients + organics
A = Agricultural chemicals
M = Metals (mining)
A
R = Radioactivity
S = Salinity
A
Orange-Senqu
U
M
M R U
S
A E
A
E
U
E
U
G
R
G
U
A
G
E
A
E = Excessive sediment
A E
M A
A
U
MS
M
A
U
T
U A
Limpopo
Incomati
Maputo
A
M
A
U
E
N
Key
Shared river basin
500 km
© P.J. Ashton
Episodic river
Three Types of Pollution
• Radiological (downstream of gold mining)
– Uranium and its daughter by-products
• Biological (downstream of sewage works)
– Vibrio Cholerae
– Cyanobacteria (microcystin)
• Chemical (downstream of any factory,
agricultural activity and/or industrial activity)
– Endocrine Disruption (gender-defining organs)
• This affects everybody so it unites us
– Dual Stream Reticulation System
Vibrio Cholerae
7th Global
Pandemic
(1961)
Toxigenic
Vibrio
Cholerae
caused by a
viral infection
of the bacillus
The Externalization of Costs
Model
Our national economic growth has been
Value
driven by an externalized cost model and
this can no longer
Mine be sustained
Remediation
Closure
Off-Balance
Sheet Items
Cost
Externalized
Costs
Revenue
V2
Dev Cost
Profit
V1
Balance
Sheet Items
Magnitude
at Closure
T1
© Adler et al., 2007
T2
Time
Acid Mine Drainage in
Gauteng
Vertical
Shaft
Surface
strata
The volume of the mine void under the
Witwatersrand is equal to 5 times the volume
of Lake Kariba – with no evaporative loss with new thinking and political will this can
become a major source of New Water
Dolomites
Ore-bearing
strata
Workings
Safety drive
Eastern
Basin
Dyke
Central
Basin
Dyke
Western
Basin
The WUC Proposal
• Is optimal for the mining industry.
• BUT optima are scale dependent, so it is
sub-optimal for society.
• Is being presented as the only viable
option (which limits our choice).
• Is based (at least in my professional
opinion) on a number of flawed
assumptions. (Main = cost recovery)
• Presents six clusters of problem.
Problem Cluster 1 (Technical)
• No treatment process can remove 100%
of contamination 100% of the time...
• Plug and pump assumption is flawed.
• Uses the void in the Central Basin as a
conduit.
• While ignoring seismicity as a potential
risk ...
Problem Cluster 2 (Moral)
• The public has been given no choice.
• Acceptable Risk is not yet defined and needs
public input.
– How many cancers of what type are
“acceptable”?
• The public is expected to subsidize the solution that
gets the mines off the hook (avoidance of legal
liability).
• Because no treatment process will remove 100% of
the contamination 100% of the time, only the best
quality feedstock should be used for potable water.
Problem Cluster 3 (Legal)
• Avoidance of the Polluter Pays Principle
(by externalizing the cost onto society
once more).
• Possible claims for seismicity damage are
not being considered.
Problem Cluster 4 (Social)
• No attempt is being made to consider
future livelihoods after mine closure.
• A potential asset for future economic
growth (water) is being permanently
removed from the West and East Rand,
with no consideration being given to
possible future scenarios (Dual Stream
Reticulation in the context of a future
value-added Beneficiation Economic
Model).
Problem Cluster 5 (Economic)
• The scale of optimization that has been
chosen (solving a mine-level problem)
closes out other possible better optima
that could benefit society and the economy
in future.
• Closes out options of potentially using the
water as a foundation of a future valueadded Beneficiation Economic Model
based on a Dual Stream Reticulation
system.
Problem Cluster 6 (Political)
• By expecting the Minister to sign an Offtake Agreement without public
consultation exposes her to considerable
political risk.
• Possible backlash arising from this factor.
• Could this become the “Arms Deal” in the
Water Sector in which Government is seen
to side with the “privileged” mining industry
at the expense of society at large?
A Future Economic Model?
Value
We need considerable
Thought Leadership and
the support of the Private
Sector, Government and
the Trades Union to make
this transition.
New
Beneficiation
Economic
Model
Limits of
Water and
Energy
Opening the debate on the
possible role of Social
Entrepreneurship.
Externalized
Cost Economic
Model
Time
The New Beneficiation Economic
Model
Our national economic growth can be
Value
stimulated by an internalized cost model
based on Dual Stream Reticulation
Potable Water
Industrial
Process Water
Benefit
This will cushion the impact of increased
input costs from energy and water and
will enable future economic growth
Time
We need a new national vision that is based on the
WEALTH Model
W - Water
E - Energy
A - Affordability
L - Leadership
T - Technology
H - Health
This will enable us to link
our water, energy and
food security strategies
and thus lead to
sustainability
If you focus on
WEALTH then
an emergent
property is
Health (human
and ecosystem)
Millions of Years Before Present
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Sahelanthropus Tchadensis
Orrorin Tugenensis
Ardipithecus Ramidus
Australopithicus Anamensis
Australopithicus Afarensis
Australopithicus Bahrleghazali
Kenyanthropus Platyops
Australopithicus Africanus
Paranthropus Aethiopicus
Australopithicus Garhi
Homo Rudolfensis
Paranthropus Boesei
Paranthropus Robustus
Homo Habilis
Homo Ergaster
Homo Erectus
Homo Heidelbergensis
Homo Neanderthalensis
Homo Sapiens
What makes us think that we will become the first
hominid species to escape extinction?
Conclusion
• South Africa is at a critical transition.
• We either crash and burn as the
Externalizion of Costs Model reaches
the end of its natural life ...
• OR we transition to a new Beneficiation
Economic Model that sees both water
and energy as a flux and manages these
accordingly.
• I extend a hand of friendship to both the
Government and WUC and state my
intention to constructively engage.
Thank You
Amehlo Amhlophe
“My Eyes are White”
Meaning that
“I come in Peace”