Transcript Issues of Scale - Anthony Turton

From an Extractive to a Beneficiation Economy:
The Vital Role of Water
Parliamentary Round Table Discussion
Cape Town
30 March 2010
Prof. Anthony Turton
Director: TouchStone Resources (Pty) Ltd
Vice President: International Water Resource Association
[email protected]
www.anthonyturton.com
© AR Turton, 2010.
World Water Scarcity 1990
Water scarcity is related to population growth as much as it
is related to environmental factors
World Water Scarcity 2020
Note the Cuvelai and the Limpopo River Basin’s both pass
into extreme stress because of population growth
World Water Scarcity 2050
Note the Orange River Basin now joins the Limpopo as
extremely stressed systems
World Water Scarcity 2070
At this stage the most economically active portion of
Southern Africa resembles the Middle East North Africa
The Externalization of Costs Model
Value
Our national economic growth has been driven
by an externalized cost model and this can no
longer be sustained
Mine
Closure
Off-Balance
Sheet Items
Remediation
Cost
Externalized
Costs
Revenue
V2
Dev Cost
Profit
V1
Balance
Sheet Items
Magnitude
at Closure
© Adler et al., 2007
T1
T2
Time
Changing Economic Paradigms
Value
We need considerable
Thought Leadership and the
support of the Private Sector,
Government and the Trades
Union to make this transition.
New Economic
Model:
Developmental
State?
Water Capacity
Energy Capacity
Human Capacity
Opening the debate on the
possible role of Social
Entrepreneurship – a fusion of
capitalism (with a a small “c”) and
socialism (with a small “s”).
Externalized Cost
Economic Model:
Apartheid State
Time
Fact # 1: Our coal deposits coincide with our best agricultural land
and this means our energy addiction to coal is destroying our
national agricultural capacity because of AMD.
Fact # 2: Acid rain causes pollen tube deformation in
maize by mobilizing aluminium and thus threatens our
national food security. (Google “aluminium toxicity
maize” for more info).
Quality Problems in Shared Basins
G = Groundwater contamination
- fluoride and/or nitrate
T = Acidic atmospheric deposits
U = Urban / industrial effluent
– pathogens + nutrients + organics
A = Agricultural chemicals
M = Metals (mining)
S = Salinity
A
Orange-Senqu
A
A
G
U
M
U
U
A
A
MS
T
M
A
U
E
U A
Limpopo
Incomati
A
M
A
U
U
R
U
M R
E S
E
A E
M A
G
A
R = Radioactivity
G
E
A
E = Excessive sediment
Maputo
U
E
N
Key
Shared river basin
500 km
© P.J. Ashton
Episodic river
Acid Mine Drainage in Gauteng
Vertical Shaft
The volume of the mine void under the
Witwatersrand is equal to 5 times the volume of
Lake Kariba – with no evaporative loss – with new
thinking and political will this can become a major
source of New Water
Reverse Osmosis is a robust technology that has
been proven in eMalahleni
Having this as strategic storage enables new Dam
Operating Rules toCentral
be applied with national
Eastern
Western
Basin
Basin
Basin
Dyke
Dyke
benefits
Surface
strata
Dolomites
Ore-bearing
strata
Workings
Safety drive
Water Demand (109m3yr1)(billion m³/yr¹)
QxF=Y
80
60
Q = volume of
water available
at national
level at a high
assurance of
supply
Y = volume of
water needed at
national level at
a high assurance
of supply to
sustain the
economy
F = Flux value
of water
Flux value of
water = 1.7
38 x 1.7 = 64.6
Highest
water use
estimate
Lowest
water use
estimate
Total surface + groundwater resources
(accessible with new technology)
Total surface resources (existing
technology)
38 x .8 = 30.4
40
This is our
problem
20
1965
1975
1985
Source: Pete Ashton, CSIR Science Scope (3)1 (2008:19)
1995
Years
2005
2015
2025
2035
Water is a Flux
Hydrological & Ecological System
Municipal Potable Water System
As water demand exceeds the natural
Rainfall (natural) and
Reticulated
supply
of rainfall, the majority of the national
Return
Flow (engineered)
potable water
component of the
needed to sustain
resource will start to become dependent
on
Resource
socioeconomic
activities
urban runoff – hence the need to prioritize
return flow management (sewage, AMD,
Waste water
industrial effluent).
Water in rivers and
dams known as
the Resource
draining the
economy
known as the
Return Flow
Recycling will become the hydrological
foundation of our national economy and
Strategic Storage System
Municipal Waste Water System
future growth will depend on this.
National Government Jurisdiction Local Government Jurisdiction
Thank You
Water is a
Flux
This is the
solution for
Economic Growth