Transcript Water Conflicts - Uppsala University

Ashok Swain
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Both Physical and Economic Water Scarcity
(a) Uneven water availability (between and within
regions)
(b) Disparity in economic, institutional and
technological strength
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Increasing water demand (population growth,
urbanization, waste)
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Water pollution (gradually becoming serious
concern in developing South)
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Construction of large dams and reservoirs
Diversion and linking of river systems
Exploitation of ground water
Desalination
Water trade
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China: 22 000 (45%)
USA: 6 575 (14%)
India: 4 291 (9%)
Japan: 2 675 (6%)
Spain: 1 196 (3%)
Canada: 793 (2%)
South Korea: 765 (2%)
France: 569 (1%)
Brazil: 594 (1%)
Turkey: 625 (1%)
Others: 7 372 (16%)
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While the world's population tripled in the 20th
century, the use of renewable water resources has
grown six-fold
1.1 billion people live without clean drinking water
2.6 billion people lack adequate sanitation
1.8 million people die every year from diarrhoeal
diseases
3 900 children die every day from water borne
diseases
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263 international river systems (covers 45% +
earth’s land surface and supports 60% + world
population)
145 countries have some share in international
river system (92 of them have 50%+ of their
territories in these basins)
21 countries receive 50% + of their surface
freshwater supply from upstream countries
No magic formula in governing International Rivers.
Percentage within international basins
Number of countries
90-100%
39
80-90%
11
70-80%
14
60-70%
11
50-60%
17
40-50%
10
30-40%
10
20-30%
13
10-20%
9
0.01-10%
11
Country
Import component of water (%)
Turkmenistan
98
Egypt
97
Hungary
95
Mauritania
95
Botswana
94
Bulgaria
91
Uzbekistan
91
Netherlands
89
Cambodia
82
Syria
80
Congo
80
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Early 1990s: Researchers and Policy Makers
claiming onset of ‘water wars’-Asia, Africa
and Middle East
Agreements were signed: Lower Mekong,
Ganges, Nile, Zambezi and many more.
‘Water War’ discussion was replaced by
‘Water Peace’
1997 The UN Watercourse Convention
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Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses
of International Watercourses’ adopted in UNGA on 21
May 1997. The Assembly adopted the draft resolution
by a recorded vote of 103 in favour to 3 against
(Turkey, China and Burundi) with 27 abstentions…but
not yet ratified. 17 have ratified 18 more needed.
Even if it gets ratified, it will be no Magic Wand
1. No War Yet: Sharing of International rivers have caused
tensions between riparian nations but has not led to
armed conflict.
2. Agreements have Worked: River water sharing
institutions and agreements have been resilient over
time, even between otherwise hostile riparian nations.
3. Internal Violent Water Conflicts: Decreased water
supply has encouraged ethnic strife, urban riots and
affected the internal stability.
4. Threat to Human Security: Threat of the global water
crisis to human security: food supply, health, migration
etc.
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Changes in Rain/snow fall pattern and shifting of
Rain/snow belt (increased precipitation in high latitudes and
part of the tropics, while projected decrease for sub-tropics and
lower latitude regions)
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Changes in time period of snow melting and spring
runoff
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High Risks of Flooding and Drought
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Increased Alteration of the River Course
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Changes in agricultural water withdrawal pattern
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Sea Water Intrusion to Freshwater System
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Worsening of Existing River conflicts (The Nile,
Tigris-Euphrates, Mekong and the Indus)
These rivers are going to receive decreased runoff in the face of
increased demand
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Creation of New Water Conflicts (In Central & West
Africa and South America)
In Central and West Africa, rivers like Congo and Volta are projected
to receive increased runoff. Same may be the case with Amazon and
La Plata basin. That will ask for increasing intervention to control
and also may encourage outside actors to intervene.
In many cases, international rivers act as boundary between two
countries and the increasing alteration of their path due to massive
change in the runoff structure can lead to territorial conflicts.
Melting Glaciers
 Growing Glacial lakes
 Increased Glacial lake Outburst Floods
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Mountain Glacier Changes Since 1970
*Positive numbers indicate glacial thinning
Source: globalwarmingart.com
BASINS of CONCERN
Increasing Scarcity
Total Area of Basin (sq. kms) : 1,138,800
Area of cty in
basin (sq. kms)
Percent area of
cty in basin (%)
Pakistan
597,700
52.48
India
381,600
33.51
China
76,200
6.69
Afghanistan
72,100
6.33
Chinese control,
claimed by India
9,600
0.84
Indian control,
claimed by China
1,600
0.14
Nepal
10
0.00
Country name
Source: WWF
The Mekong
River Basin
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BASINS of CONCERN
Problem of Plenty
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Existing water sharing arrangement may come under
Threat due to decreased runoff and also change in
runoff pattern
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Destruction of Hydro-projects, high floods and glacier
lake outbursts
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Problems in Planing Water Development Projects
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Doubts over its Suitability to act as International
Boundary
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Climate Change, Water Supply Uncertainties and largescale Population Migration is another big Issue.
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Water is highly subsidized in developing countries
States are still the main players of water supply and
financing (75%) while non-state sector (11%) and aid
(14%)
Non-state sector manages water systems for only 7% of
Global Population. However, it is expected to double by
2015
Water Tariff Sectors:
 Household Sector
 The Industry Sector
 The Agricultural Sector
1. Capital Cost
2. Operation and Maintenance Cost
3. Opportunity Cost
4. Resource Cost
5. Long Run Marginal Cost
6. Social Cost
7. Environmental Cost
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Agenda 21 of the Rio Summit recognized the multi-sectoral nature
of water resources development and called for cooperation among
those states for integrated approaches to the development,
management and use of the trans-boundary freshwater resources.
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Water is identified as a central issue in the Millennium Development
Goals, adopted by heads of state gathered at the UN Millennium
Summit in September 2000.
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World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) held in
Johannesburg in September 2002 (Rio +10) calls for a number of
immediate actions for the promotion of integrated water
management.
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Addresses basin’s unique culture and
history; economic disparity; ecological
sensitivities
Flexible to cope with short-term
emergencies
Continuously evolving process
Helps to swiftly adjudicate water related
disputes
provides platform to facilitate water and
benefit sharing negotiations
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Merging Development and Regional Peace agendas
in letter and spirit
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Not the ‘Diplomats only’ approach
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Engagement at the highest political level
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Global, regional and local (institutional) initiatives
and policies, which are flexible and enforceable
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Including Civil Society (local, regional and
international) in Policy formulation and policy
implementation