Transcript Sudan and the Millennium Development Goals - Somali

Somalia Country Economic Report
From Resilience Towards Recovery and
Development
November 2005
Areas covered by the report
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Public Sector Institutions and Management
Sectoral Performance and Environmental Issues
Macroeconomic Management and Trade
Private Sector Development and Legal Framework
Education and Health
Implications for JNA
The Country Economic Report (CER)
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Provides an overview of the economic and
social situation in Somalia
Identifies key policy challenges
Suggests an approach for strengthening the
delivery of public services
- private sector
-communities
- governments.
The Social and Economic Costs of the Conflict
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Since 1990, civil conflict, continuing insecurity and
absence of government in many parts of the country
Access to basic services worsened welfare and poverty
compared to pre-civil war times
Poor infrastructure and weak governance hamstrung
the economy’s potential
increased remittances have partially cushioned living
standards a from the sharp drop in per capita output.
Vibrant private sector and emergence of community
based delivery systems.
Macroeconomic Management and Trade
Main Findings:
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The economy is dollarised for all large business and personal
transactions
Open Economy. Exports in 2004 a record high of about $265 million
or about 19% of nominal GNP.
Fiscal Capacity in the northern regional states weak- low revenue
collection, expenditures mostly for security and general
administration.
By end-2004, Somalia’s total external debt is estimated at $3.2
billion.
Implications:
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Currency reform- low seignorage, but inflation risks for the poor.
Low, ad-valorem and non-discriminatory taxes linked to service
provision, debt service capacity negligible.
Public Sector Institutions and Management
Main Findings:
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The political and economic challenges facing the TFG and
the regional and local authorities in Somalia are
formidable.
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There is a strong regional diversity of security and
administrative conditions.
Implications:
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Building accountable and capable Somali state institutions.
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For those areas where the public sector will play a role,
existing systems of planning, budgeting, financial controls,
and reporting need to be urgently strengthened and made
transparent to ensure responsiveness to the population
needs and accountability of state structures and public
servants to taxpayers and donors.
Agricultural Performance and the Environment
Main Findings:
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In the south-central regions, livestock exports and crop production in
both the rain-fed and the irrigated areas have suffered in recent years
from poor security conditions. In the northern regions poor veterinary
services hinder pastoralists
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Environmental degradation in fragile areas
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High Potential fisheries
Implications:
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Address insecurity especially in ports and tackle environmental
conflicts
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Provision by the public sector of animal and plant health and
certification services is an urgent priority
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Opportunities for marine exports
Private Sector Development and Legal Framework
Main Findings:
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Civil strife had a devastating effect on the small industrial
structure in both north-west and southern Somalia.
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In all regions, the private sector is providing sometimes better
and more efficient services than the state before the civil war.
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There are, however, critical gaps in private sector provision,
where absence of an effective state role is felt more acutely.
Implications:
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Enable the private and NGO sectors to expand production of
private and public goods and services, through a market and
property rights friendly regulatory and legal framework.
Rebuild a lean federal court system and encourage the
establishment of a modern, formal arbitration system.
Education and Health I
Main Findings:
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Primary school GER around 19.9% c.f. (pre-war rate of 8.2 %).
Secondary enrollment 1.1% in 2001, the lowest in the world
Girls have even more limited access to education,
Schools are inadequately governed, supplied, and equipped, but
local communities are active in education management all
across Somalia.
The under-five mortality rate is estimated at 224 per 1,000 live
births ( 172 average for Sub-Saharan Africa). Infant mortality
132 in 1999 (SSA 107). Maternal mortality the highest in all of
Africa. Somalia among the worst five countries with respect to
tuberculosis prevalence, more than a four fold increase since
1995.
Rising dependency on khat a growing public health and social
problem .
Education and Health II
Implications:
 make the best possible use of very constrained public
resources, to improve quality of service delivery, and to
expand access.
 Strategic priorities are training of teachers and health
workers, correcting the gender bias in education,
prevention of infectious diseases like tuberculosis,
rehabilitating uneducated militia fighters, ensuring access
by the poor to primary services, leveraging as much as
possible community, NGO, and private sector providers.
 Secondary education, including standardization of curricula,
tertiary education and curative health services can be left in
the hands of community and private providers
Implications for JNA
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Stimulate private sector through “market friendly” framework
Support local and community initiatives for
service delivery
Recognise opportunities for reconciliation and
risks of conflict.
Acknowledge mistrust many Somalis may
harbor, by rebuilding state institutions with an
exceptionally strong accountability framework.