Transcript Document

JHSAT Metrics & Continued
Analysis
Roy Fox
IHST Carmel 28 November 06
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Topics
1. JHSAT International Support
2. JHSAT Progress Metrics
3. JHSAT Process 2001 Forward
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1. IHST International Support
IHST
• Goal settings
• Worldwide involvement (marketing safety)
JHSAT
• Identify root causes and interventions (data driven)
• Measure actual fleet effectiveness toward 80% reduction
JHSIT
• Develop Implementation approaches and implement
interventions.
• Measure implementation progress.
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JHSIT Dilemmas
1. Operations/regulations are country specific. No single
set of regulations.
2. Implementations must fit within a country’s
regulations.
3. Some Implementations will be common worldwide.
Many Implementations may be included voluntary.
4. Implementation approaches may vary country to
country (or regional organization).
JHSIT lead (core) group coordinates & guides JHSIT
regional teams (subgroups) in their regional efforts.
JHSIT lead group will develop worldwide
implementations as consistent as possible and monitor
implementation progress of JHSIT regional teams.
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JHSAT Dilemmas
Intervention recommendations to be data & frequency driven.
Different pockets of accident datasets exist around the world.
Some government reports are not released to the public, (military
service).
Accurate fleet flight hours are not available in most countries.
Different operating rules, regulations and limitations.
Implementation driven within a country regulations
although some interventions may be done voluntary.
Country stakeholders are part of the solution within
their country. Must consider regional limitations.
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JHSAT Supports Regional Implementations
•
Implementations will be regional and regional
accident data driven.
• Still need a common worldwide analysis
approach that can be applied to regional
datasets (within their unique limits/regulations)
• Not all countries/organizations will participate.
Process developed, controlled, and taught by
the JHSAT Lead Group.
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JHSAT Teams
• JHSAT Lead Group: train regional JHSAT Teams
• Same analysis technique used.
• Training: 2-3 members of a new JHSAT Team
– Participate in one or two JHSAT meetings
– Lead JHSAT Group continue regional Teams assistance.
• JHSAT Teams: Same format/worksheet and use their
regional accidents.
Team: Their purpose is to identify root causes and
interventions of their accidents so can be passed to
their region’s JHSIT Team.
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2. Metrics: Are We Going to Meet
the 80% Reduction Goals?
• Goal progress must be measured to be effective
• Measured by country and total worldwide
• Compare IHST participant countries vs. nonparticipants
• Allow early redirection of efforts. Refocus.
• Metrics means need to be in-place for year 2007.
If you measure it, you know if improving or getting worse.
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Civil Helicopter Worldwide Fleet
(End of 2004)
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Country of Registry
Year 2000
Accident
Slice
Euro = 66 (11.9%)
United States (Civil)
U.S. Military
Canada
UK: England, Scotland, Wales
France
Australia, Russia
South Africa
Brazil, Switzerland
Germany, Italy, New Zealand
Mexico, Indonesia
Argentina, Japan, Sweden
Chile, Colombia, Honduras,
Malaysia, Thailand
Greenland, Guatemala,
Philippines, Romania, South
Korea, Taiwan, Venzuela
Algeria, Austria, China,
Denmark, India, Iran, Jamaica,
Kazakhstan, Kenya,
Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Latvia,
Nigeria, Panama, Peru,
Portugal, Spain, Swaziland,
Turkey, Turks & Caicos, UAE
Worldwide Accidents
2000
Accidents
195
109
46
27
14
13 ea.
10
8 ea.
6 ea.
5 ea.
4 ea.
% All
36.6%
20.5%
8.6%
5.1%
2.6%
4.9%
1.9%
3.0%
3.4%
1.9%
2.3%
3 ea.
2.8%
2 ea.
2.6%
1 ea.
3.9%
533
100.0%
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Measuring Annual Progress
1. Accident count/year
2. Accident rate/100,000 hr
3. Individual Risk of Fatal Injury/100,000 occupant hr
RFI = Accidents/100,000 hr X (Number of fatalities/total number onboard)
Worldwide
By Individual Country (or region)
Compare rates: IHST participants vs. non-participants
Progress report to IHST each year
Interim reports to Regional JHSAT/JHSITs.
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12,000
10,000
Total Hours
Developing Accurate
Flight Hours
S/N 30XX Flight Hours
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
– Unique A/C hours calculated (year start versus end points)
– Unique A/C hours rolled up to model series (206)
– Series rolled up to major group segment (single turbine).
• Bell developing flight hours for ALL civil
helicopters worldwide. 2000 and beyond.
1/1/2004
1/1/2002
1/1/2000
1/1/1998
1/1/1996
USA
1/1/1994
1/1/1992
1/1/1990
• Bell tracks individual aircraft by serial
• number for annual flight hours
• HAI starting using same approach under FAA R&D
to accumulate individual hours. Voluntary - some
HAI members participate.
• Annual rollup to group segment:
UK
1/1/1988
1/1/1984
1/1/1982
1/1/1980
1/1/1986
USA
0
Year
Output to
IHST
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1/1/2004
1/1/2002
UK
1/1/2000
1/1/1998
1/1/1996
1/1/1994
USA
1/1/1992
1/1/1990
1/1/1988
1/1/1986
1/1/1984
1/1/1982
1/1/1980
Total Hours
206B Flight Hours - 25 Years
S/N 30XX Flight Hours
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
USA
0
Year
14
01
/0
1/
07
01
/0
1/
06
01
/0
1/
05
S/N XX
01
/0
1/
04
EC135
01
/0
1/
03
01
/0
1/
02
01
/0
1/
01
01
/0
1/
00
01
/0
1/
99
01
/0
1/
98
Flight Hour Example from MMIR
NXXXXX
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
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Flight Hour Information Needed
• An flight hour data point for a single helicopter:
–
–
–
–
–
Model
Serial Number
Registry Number
Date
Total Cumulative Airframe Flight Hours
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Sources of Flight Hour Data
•
•
•
•
MMIRs
SDRs, AIDS (USA)
Accident Reports
Anytime an individual aircraft total airframe
time is known. (maintenance, registry
change, Certification of Airworthiness, etc.)
• Internet, sales, helicopter clubs, etc.
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UK CAA has detail
flight hours in Registry
for sale.
ICAO starting similar
with 4 countries.
Need to involve
ICAO/CAA into IHST
and they can provide
individual aircraft flight
hours/registry inputs.
Need JHSIT assistance.
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Worldwide Civil Flight Hours
Status: 10 Nov 06
• 28,933 different civil registered helicopters worldwide
during 2000-2006 period.
• Some destroyed and no-longer exist. Some changed
country registries.
• Helicopters with usable flight hours data (10 Nov 06):
– 8,873 A/C have data points ready (30.7% done)
– 15,211 A/C in work (have data points, registry being checked) (52.6%)
– 57,488 data points in work
• September started adding non-Bells. With JHSIT help,
expect worldwide hours available Spring 07.
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Needed from Each Country Regulatory Agency
For each civil registered helicopter, provide the following data
point information of total airframe flight hour points in time.
1.
2.
3.
4.
For a date in 1999 or earlier
For a date in late 2006 (or latest available)
For the date that the helicopter entered the country registry.
For the date that the helicopter left the country registry.
A data point contains the following minimum elements:
- Model
- Registry Number
- A/C Serial Number
- Date
- Total Time of Airframe Flight Hours (rounded to nearest
whole hour) on that date.
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Flight Hour Example – Regulatory Support
EC135
S/N XX
NXXXXX
6000
5000
Aircraft left Country X for Y
4000
3000
2000
1000
Aircraft entered Country X
01
/0
1/
07
01
/0
1/
06
01
/0
1/
05
01
/0
1/
04
01
/0
1/
03
01
/0
1/
02
01
/0
1/
01
01
/0
1/
00
01
/0
1/
99
01
/0
1/
98
0
We can fill in if we know entry/exit dates/points
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JHSAT Metrics Effort Request
• JHSIT Regulatory members contact countries
worldwide and request flight hour data point
information for all civil helicopters.
• Request ICAO provide regulatory data points support.
• Provide flight hour data point information to JHSAT
Cochairs (Mark Liptak and Jack Drake) and copy Roy
Fox (flightsafety @ bellhelicopter.textron.com)
• Schedule: Inputs by end of 2006 will allow JHSAT to have
metrics for 2000 report to IHST in early 2007.
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Worldwide Flight Hour Program Outputs
• Annual fleet flight hours to be accumulated into 3 groups within a
country registry:
– Single piston
– Single turbine
– Twin turbine
• Flight hours will be furnished back to regional JHSAT/JHSITs to
be used in intervention strategies and fleet safety improvements.
Assist in cost effectiveness analyses.
• JHSITs to furnish a country’s flight hours back to that country.
• Worldwide metrics rates to be determined annually.
• Metrics rates by country to be determined annually.
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3. JHSAT 2001 Approach
• Same approach as used on 2000 accidents but use 2 sub-teams
(like Nov. meeting) to cover 50 accidents/ week mtg (doubled
prior outputs).
• Meet 4-6 times/year. (presently monthly)
• Finish 2001 accidents/report by end of 2007.
• Try adding a key-words commonality identifier approach for
potential analysis speedup for repeating accident sequences.
• Compare commonality between 2000 and 2001 accidents.
– Modes, missions, frequencies, etc.
• Continue training/standardization of regional JHSATs
• Continue individual country and worldwide metrics, flight hours,
& reports to IHST & JHSITs.
• Start measuring potential IHST effects starting in 2007.
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Summary
• Data/implementation will be regional whereas analysis
process is constant.
• JHSAT training to ensure consistent accident analysis
process.
• Metrics of participating countries & worldwide
– Accident counts
– Accident rate/100,000 hr
– Individual risk of fatal injury/100,000 occupant hr
• Flight exposure information lacking
• JHSAT is developing country & worldwide flight hours
– Single piston
– Single turbine
– Twin turbine
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Recommendations
1. JHSIT needs to be initiated soon.
2. Regulatory members need to establish
regulatory contacts/agreements to provide
date & flight hours data points at helicopter
entry/exit dates on their civil registry.
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