Transcript Document

Metrics: Are We Meeting the 80%
Reduction Goals?
3 May 2007
AHS Forum 63
Roy Fox
Chief, Flight Safety
Bell Helicopter
JHSAT
International Helicopter Safety Team
May 2007
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International Helicopter Safety Team (IHST)
IHST
• Goal settings & Worldwide Involvement
JHSAT (Joint Helicopter Safety Analysis Team)
• Identify root causes and interventions
– Accident data is regional driven
• Measure actual fleet effectiveness toward 80% reduction
JHSIT (Joint Helicopter Safety Implementation Team)
• Develop Implementation approaches and implement
interventions.
• Implementation is primarily regional controlled
• Measure implementation progress.
International Helicopter Safety Team
May 2007
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JHSAT Dilemmas
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•
•
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Intervention recommendations to be data & frequency
driven.
Different pockets of accident datasets exist around the
world.
Some Government reports are not released to the public,
(military service, etc.).
Accurate fleet flight hours are not available in most
countries.
•
Different operating rules, regulations and limitations.
Implementation driven within a country regulations
although some interventions may be done voluntary.
•
Country stakeholders are part of the solution within their
country. Must consider regional limitations.
International Helicopter Safety Team
May 2007
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JHSAT Teams
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•
•
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US JHSAT Lead Group: Assist regional JHSAT Teams
Same analysis technique, format worksheet
Using their regional accidents.
JHSAT Regional Teams:
– Their purpose is to identify root causes and interventions of their
accidents so can be passed to their region’s JHSIT Team.
• US JHSAT Lead Team: Regional Teams’s Outputs used for
JHSATs coordination worldwide. We learn from each other.
• JHSAT to measures IHST progress toward 80% reduction goals
• Worldwide
• By country
• By participation in IHST
METRICS: Allow redirection of efforts. Refocus
International Helicopter Safety Team
May 2007
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24 Years - Little Change
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Aircraft
Powerplant
Auxilary Equipment
Human Performance
Environment / Facilities
Unknown
* Last year high “unknown” due to accident investigations still in progress. Likely to end up same % as previous years.
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May 2007
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Subject Fleet: Manufactured Helicopters
• Includes:
– Civil certificated models (47, R22, 206B, S-76,etc.)
– Military helicopter qualified for military but now
flying on civil registries (Military Surplus)
• Not included:
– Homebuilt (amateur) helicopters
– Kit helicopters
– Gyroplane/gyrocopters
International Helicopter Safety Team
May 2007
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Start
Points ?
2016
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May 2007
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Year 2000
Accident
Slice
(Known Minimum)
Bell worldwide manufactured
helicopter database using
common accident definition.
Databank being continually
updated so situation is worse than
shown.
Country of Registry
United States (Civil)
U.S. Military
Canada
UK: England, Scotland, Wales
France
Australia, Russia
South Africa
Brazil, Switzerland
Germany, Italy, New Zealand
Mexico, Indonesia
Argentina, Japan, Sweden
Chile, Colombia, Honduras,
Malaysia, Thailand
Greenland, Guatemala,
Philippines, Romania, South
Korea, Taiwan, Venzuela
Algeria, Austria, China,
Denmark, India, Iran, Jamaica,
Kazakhstan, Kenya,
Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Latvia,
Nigeria, Panama, Peru,
Portugal, Spain, Swaziland,
Turkey, Turks & Caicos, UAE
International Helicopter Safety Team
May 2007
Worldwide Accidents
2000
Accidents
195
109
46
27
14
13 ea.
10
8 ea.
6 ea.
5 ea.
4 ea.
% All
36.6%
20.5%
8.6%
5.1%
2.6%
4.9%
1.9%
3.0%
3.4%
1.9%
2.3%
3 ea.
2.8%
2 ea.
2.6%
1 ea.
3.9%
533
100.0%
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JHSAT Dataset Selection – Metrics
•
A dataset must be consistent to have accurate results.
•
Definition and process must be same throughout.
•
Operations under common regulatory rules.
1. Basic US JHSAT dataset: NTSB: US Registered Helicopters
–
–
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Regardless of country of occurrence (where crashed)
Gyrocopters and amateur kit built helicopter accidents removed
Foreign registered helicopters removed (counted against their country
of registry)
Accidents only per NTSB 830.2 definition (similar to ICAO).
Incidents are removed.
2. Regional JHSAT dataset: Use their official accident definition
for their analyses. Use same dataset criteria as US JHSAT.
3. Worldwide Data/Metrics: US JHSAT worldwide database
using same NTSB dataset criteria of US JHSAT.
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May 2007
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JHSAT Measuring Annual Progress
1. Accident rate/100,000 hr
Worldwide and by Individual Country (and region)
Compare rates and rate changes:
• IHST participants vs baseline non-participants
• Show IHST effectiveness in participant countries.
Progress report to IHST each year
Interim reports to Regional JHSAT/JHSITs.
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JHSAT Developing Accurate Flight Hours
International Helicopter Safety Team
May 2007
S/N 30XX Flight Hours
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
1/1/2004
1/1/2002
1/1/2000
1/1/1998
1/1/1996
USA
1/1/1994
1/1/1992
1/1/1990
UK
1/1/1988
1/1/1984
1/1/1982
1/1/1986
USA
0
1/1/1980
Total Hours
• Track individual aircraft by serial
number for flight hours
• HAI starting using same approach
under FAA R&D to accumulate
individual hours.
• Year start and end points calculated,
flight hours rolled up to model series,
then to major group segment.
• JHSAT developing flight hours for
All civil registered helicopters
worldwide.
Year
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206B Flight Hours - 25 Years
S/N 30XX Flight Hours
12,000
Total Hours
10,000
8,000
6,000
Registry Change
4,000
2,000
USA
UK
USA
1/1/2004
1/1/2002
1/1/2000
1/1/1998
1/1/1996
1/1/1994
1/1/1992
1/1/1990
1/1/1988
1/1/1986
1/1/1984
1/1/1982
1/1/1980
0
Year
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Flight Hour Example from MMIR
EC135
S/N XX
NXXXXX
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
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/0
1/
07
01
/0
1/
06
01
/0
1/
05
01
/0
1/
04
01
/0
1/
03
01
/0
1/
02
01
/0
1/
01
01
/0
1/
00
01
/0
1/
99
01
/0
1/
98
0
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Sources of Flight Hour Data
• MMIRs (Maintenance Malfunction Incident Report – HAI)
• SDRs, AIDS (USA FAA)
• Accident Reports worldwide
• Anytime an individual aircraft total airframe time is
known. (Maintenance, registry, Certification of
Airworthiness, imported, exported, etc.)
• Internet, for sale postings, tradeshows, etc.
• Other sources
• Working toward “zero burden” on operator: Data mining
airframe hours without asking operator.
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UK CAA has detailed
flight hours in website
Registry (last 3 years)
ICAO starting similar
with 4 countries.
Will be involving
ICAO/CAA into IHST
and they can provide
flight hours inputs.
Need JHSIT assistance
of all involved countries
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Flight Hour Exposure Process
For Each Helicopter
Registered (Done
for each country)
Manufactured
Helicopters
Active
(flew at
least
1 hour)
Annual Flight
Hours of Each
Active Helicopter
Aircraft
Active
Helicopter Fleet
Flight Hours
Inactive
(US ~ 24%)
Homebuilts
Kits
International Helicopter Safety Team
May 2007
JHSATs
JHSITs
-Single Piston
-Single Turbine
-Multi Turbine
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Flight Hour Data Points & Registry
For each civil registered helicopter, provide the following data point
information for airframe flight hour points in time.
1.
2.
3.
4.
For a date in late 1999 or early 2000 (or prior to 1999)
For a date in late 2006 (or later)
For the date that the helicopter entered the country registry.
For the date that the helicopter left the country registry.
A data point contains the following minimum elements:
- Model
- Registry Number
- A/C Serial Number
- Date
- Total Time of Airframe Flight Hours (rounded to nearest
whole hour) on that date.
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IHST Goal Starting Point
Charter - IHST Goal States:
“Reduce the helicopter accident rate by 80 percent by 2016.”
US Goal for US Registered Helicopters:
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•
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Average of 5 years prior to IHST initiation of Jan 2006.
NTSB/FAA data on HAI website for 2001-2005
10,663,000 flight hours
974 accidents (Includes helicopters, kits, amateur homebuilts, gyroplanes)
Starting
Point
Average Accident/ 100,000 flt hr
9.1
US IHST 10-year Goal
International Helicopter Safety Team
May 2007
2016
Goal
1.83
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Worldwide Registered Helicopters
Multi-Turbine
15%
Single
Turbine
45%
Single
Piston
40%
International Helicopter Safety Team
May 2007
Total Registered: 22,647
(2005 RosterRoster)
Total Inactive? Unknown
(Destroyed, Displays, Stored, etc.)
Total Active? To Be Determined
Active A/C Completion
Status 1 May 07:
34%
Present Registry Potential of
26,000+
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Worldwide IHST Goal - Set Later
• Lack of flight hours prevents establishing
Goal Starting Point.
• JHSAT initiated effort in 2006 to determine
accurate civil helicopter hours worldwide.
• Thus far, hours identified for 1/3 of potential
fleet.
• Worldwide goal awaiting completion of
flight hour effort underway.
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May 2007
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Worldwide*Accident Rates Est. After Flight Hours Done
Potential Worldwide Accident Rates
18
Accidents/100,000 htr
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Anticipate Worldwide Rate Average to be 10-12/100,000 hr when done
Known 1/3 Fleet Active
International Helicopter Safety Team
May 2007
*No US DOD
Assumed 50% Active @ Same Usage
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Worldwide Flight Hour Program Outputs
• Annual fleet flight hours to be accumulated into
3 groups within a country registry:
– Single piston
– Single turbine
– Multiple turbine
• Regional flight hours will be furnished back to
regional JHSAT/JHSITs to be used in
determining intervention strategies and fleet
safety improvements.
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May 2007
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Summary
• Data/implementation will be regional whereas analysis
process is constant worldwide.
• Goal Metrics of participating countries & worldwide
– Accident rate/100,000 hr
• Flight exposure information lacking worldwide
• JHSAT is developing country & worldwide flight hours
– Single piston
– Single turbine
– Multiple turbine
US Goal Starting & End Points Set: Reduce present
accident rate per 100,000 flt hr of 9.1 to 1.8 by 2016
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May 2007
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Questions?
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May 2007
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