Transcript Scotland’s Food System at a Crossroads

Scotland’s Food System at a
Crossroads
David Atkinson
Food and Drink Leadership Forum
& ACTS Rural Committee
Food Sovereignty: What is It?
• Food at the heart of Policy
• A clear view of where our food will come from
now and in the future i.e. Climate change type
issues are embedded, leading to food security.
• An appropriate infrastructure which makes food
accessible and affordable to all.
• It does NOT require all food to be home
produced or a production and distribution
network under state control
Global
climate
change
National
priorities
Fair Trading
policies:
home and
international
Available
options within
the food chain
Food
Security
Security
Food safety
Energy Policy
effects on
production and
transport
Water
Dependable and
diverse local
production
Chatham House Pressures
• Population: Increase demand from a rapidly rising world
population
• Diet: The effect of “nutrition translation.”
• Energy: Energy dependence of current systems.
• Land: The potential to increase the amount of land
available to agriculture is limited
• Water: Increase in global stresses on available water.
• Climate Change: Predicted that world agricultural GDP
output will decline by 16% by 2020.
• Labour: a decreased rural population able to produce
primary produce.
Chatham House Predictions
• The absolute level of food production worldwide is rising.
• Despite this, food prices have been rising
• Although absolute food production is rising, world
population growth is outstripping the increase.
• Measured in terms of days of consumption, world grain
stocks have now fallen to half the levels of the mid1980s
• In the short run food prices may well fall or be volatile,
but the underlying supply shortfall must be confronted
• Systemic change will eventually be necessary
The Importance of Scottish Food
production
• Food prices have been affected by government
actions for most of recent history
• The gap between increasing world production
and world population growth is decreasing
• An approach to the proportion of our food which
we produce based only on economic factors
would be unwise
• The aim of producing approaching two thirds of
our food from our own resources would seem to
be prudent
Climate change and Food security
• The impact of agriculture on GHG
production
• The impact of land management
• The effects of our choice of agricultural
types
• Options for changing resource use and
externalities
• Home verses overseas production
• Impact on the post farm gate equation
CO2
Methane
Food
Ruminant Animals
CO2
Carbon containing
inputs
Grassland
Soil Carbon
Storage
Fertiliser
CO2
Nitrous Oxide
Scottish Dietary Targets
Fruit & vegetables
Intake to double to more than 400grams per day
Bread
Intake to increase by 45 % from present daily intake
of 106 grams, mainly using wholemeal and brown
breads.
Breakfast Cereals
Average intake to double from the present intake of
17 grams per day
Fats
Average intake of total fat to reduce from 40.7% to
no more than 35%.Average intake of saturated fatty
acids to reduce from 16.6% to no more than 11%
Meeting dietary targets by home
production
Inc. person. Amount for
per year (kg) Scotland
Th.tonnes
73
371
% inc on
current
production
117
Bread
174
884
125
(Wheat)
Breakfast
cereals
6
32
30
(Oats)
Fruit &
Veg
Are Genetically Modified Crops the
Solution to Current Food Security
Problems?
GM Crop Performance
• The performance of GM crops has varied
greatly between farms , farmers, crop
varieties, regions, seasons.
• Institutional factors have a major impact
• Poor farmers have generally not done well
from GM
• It isn’t the silver bullet some hoped for.
Some disadvantages of Climate
Change genes
• Pleiotropy: The ability of a single gene to
cause unintended physiological changes
throughout the plant which resulting
impact on yield and quality. The yield
losses of bad years are experienced in all
years
• Many of the gene patent applications
cover a wide range of crops e.g. BASF (
US 7,161,063 environmental stresses in
32 crops
“ The biological fixation of N2 is
accompanied by the energetically
wasteful reduction of protons to H2
this represents a wasting of at least
25% of photosynthesis which is
used for the fixation process”
Minchin, Gordon and Witty (1996)
Acceptable /
Relevant
information
Income
Home
production
Local
&community
initiatives
Affordability
Prices
Life style driven
consumption
Trading
Share of UK household expenditure spent on food
and non-alcoholic beverages 2005/2006
18%
16%
17%
15%
14%
13%
13%
12%
12%
11%
10%
10%
9%
8%
8%
7%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Poorest
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Richest
The Contribution of the
Supermarkets
• The supermarkets currently dominate the food
supply market and so are key players in any
attempt to reduce the price of food or to maintain
it in periods of market failure. They also have a
pivotal role in any approach to promoting of
healthy eating.
• More affluent and better educated groups are
more likely to use multiple supermarkets and
less affluent groups more likely to use discount
supermarkets
Price and
income
Geography
Knowledge
and Values
Access
Access
Local &
community
initiatives
Life style
and
pressures
Consumer
orientated
Food chains
Significant Tensions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The proportion of the food consumed in Scotland
which should be produced from our own resources.
The amount of our land area which should be devoted
to food production
The methods which should be employed for food
production
The potential for the expansion of organic production
Whether genetic modification has any role in the food
we produce or import.
The appropriate level of control exercised by the
Supermarket sector.
The future development of electronic food marketing
relative to the maintenance of convenience food stores