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Transport Futures Eur Ing Peter Loftus C.Eng. M.I.Mech.E Transport Futures “The world did not emerge from the Stone Age because we ran out of stones. It won't emerge from the Oil Age because we run out of oil." Don Huberts, Shell Hydrogen. Issues • Reduce carbon emissions • Security of Supply • Alternative supplies and Technologies Oil Prices $40 barrel - 1 June 2004 European progressing towards 140 g/km CO2in 2008 • But latest (2002) figures show progress stalling at c165 g/km • Past gains attributed to Diesel penetration (>40% in 2002), and other technology improvements Technology Overview Powertrain Improvements • Remains the most costeffective way to reduce fossil-fuel CO2 • Hybrids – two motor solution. Electric and ICE. Carbon to Hydrogen Roadmap The ‘migration path’ to a low carbon economy depends on power train developments whatever the fuel source. A partnership between Industry (market) and Government (legislation) will deliver on emissions without destroying the market and the manufacturers relations with their customers. • A low risk migration path is necessary. • Hybrid technology is the probable path but eventually fuel cells offer lowest emissions and efficiency. • Hybrids will develop alongside competing technology packages. • Early adopters will pay for some developments. Enabling Technologies Clean Diesel engines • offer 25%+ CO2 improvement over a conventional Gasoline; down-sizing via advanced turbo charging technology offers perhaps 10-20% more improvement • Common rail diesels at present are the most efficient and with the lowest emissions New Efficient Petrol technologies – Can offer slightly less performance on CO2 emissions than diesel, but very much more cost effectively. Diesel engines for Euro 5 are projected to cost twice the equivalent output petrol. – Other markets have not gone diesel route. We need low CO2 Options for these – Petrol injection, variable lift valves, lean burn, turbocharging, etc. Efficient automated transmissions • can offer up to 5-8% CO2 reduction, can enable downsized engines to be more driveable, and are attractive to customers on our more congested roads Advanced control technology • allows the vehicle to operate as an integrated whole, and ultimately be more efficient by knowing what lies ahead -via GPS / map or telematics information Types of Hybrid Eventually hybrids offer best theoretical performance Series Parallel Mild Hybrid – Has smaller battery, always needs the Prime Mover running. All Hybrids have auto stop/start. Engine Down-sizing without Hybridisation • Turbocharging of Diesel or Petrol engines maintains output. • Higher Efficiency, lower weight, lower friction produce lower CO2 emissions. • Enabling technologies overcome turbo lag. (better electronics, twin turbo, electrical boost). • 20% - 30% engine downsize gives 10% 15% fuel economy gain. Hybrids Hybrid Migration path • • • • • Euro 3 Diesel 170 g/km (Well to wheel) 12v stop start 163 g/km (wtw) 42v mild hybrid plus d/sizing 112 g/km Full Parallel Hybrid 93 g/km (wtw) Parallel Hybrid + Exh heat recovery 86 g/km (wtw) • Parallel Hybrid + Aux Power Unit 81 g/km • Fuel Cell Series Hybrid 74 g/km (wtw) MG TF 200 HPD Hybrid Sportscar • Delivers Extended Performance rather than extra economy • Extended Performance comes at no cost to Fuel Economy or Tailpipe Emissions • Battery provides superior acceleration and peak powertrain KW (200BHP) Wheel to Wheel Performance (Today) Wheel to Wheel Extended Analysis Fuel Cell Components Transport Futures Eur Ing Peter Loftus C.Eng. M.I.Mech.E www.renewteesvalley.co.uk [email protected]