Transcript Information Management

Managing Emerging
Technologies
• Title: Managing Emerging Technologies
– Emerging Technology
– Org Aspects of Technology
Development
– Case Study
Slide 1 of 13
What makes Emerging
Technology a Different Game?
•
•
•
•
•
Higher levels of uncertainty
Complexity
Accelerating speed
Competency-destroying change
Managers must take innovative approaches to issues
such as
–
–
–
–
Technology assessment
Strategy
Marketing
Organisational design
Slide 2 of 13
Emerging Technology
Examples
• Gene therapy, intelligent sensors, digital
imaging, micro-machines and
superconductivity etc. shift the rules
Slide 3 of 13
The Technology Lifecycle
(Four phases)
• Technologies like products have a lifecycle
• Traditionally this comprises 4 phases:
– Emerging Technology
• Still an innovation
– Pacing Technology
• Grown in acceptance
– Key Technology
• Drives a competitive differential
– Base Technology
• Required technology
Slide 4 of 13
DIFFUSION
“Diffusion is the process by which an
innovation is communicated over time,
through certain channels to members of
a social system”.
Slide 5 of 13
Adoption of Technology
• Innovation Diffusion Theory (implementation
point of view)
–
–
–
–
–
Innovators
[2.5%]
Early adopters [13.5%]
Early Majority [34%]
Late Majority [34%]
Laggards
[16%]
Slide 6 of 13
Why not just Wait?
• Implications for not keeping pace with
technology change (CEO’s Perception)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Loss of competitive edge
Increased cost of production
Would not be in business
Lack of control in running the business
Would not happen
Other
[58%]
[16%]
[13%]
[7%]
[3%]
[3%]
Slide 7 of 13
Identifying Emerging
Technologies
• Four basic questions
– What can happen?
– What will happen?
– What should happen?
– How will it happen?
Slide 8 of 13
Managing Emerging
Technology Checklists
• How to sell new technology to senior
executives
• How to prioritize and focus on the right
emerging technology
• Developing the business case for Emerging
Technology
• How to decide when to deploy emerging
technologies, minimizing risks but not getting
left behind
Slide 9 of 13
Inhibitors to Embracing
Emerging Technologies
•
•
•
•
•
Delayed participation
Sticking with the familiar
Reluctance to fully commit
Lack of persistence
The establishment
Slide 10 of 13
Strategies for Success
• Attending to signals from the periphery
• Building a learning capacity
• Maintaining flexibility
• Organisational Separation
Slide 11 of 13
The Technology Assessment
Process
SCOPING
SEARCHING
COMMITTING
EVALUATING
Slide 12 of 13
Factors that slow Adoption of
new Technologies
• Satisfaction with current solutions
• Significant regulatory approval process required
• Customer’s perception of value dependent on backing of
other parties
• Adoption requires users, customers or distributors to change
expensive embedded systems
• Education of how to use offering required
• Industry technical standards not yet clearly set
• Purchasing decision will be risky for target customers
• Infrastructure or technology need development to get offering
to market
Slide 13 of 13
Lessons from the Past
• Expert predictions are fallible
• Timing is relevant
• Which new technologies become adopted
is harder to predict
• Organisational consequences of adopted
new technologies take a long time to
become evident
Slide 14 of 13
Rules and Laws of Technology
NAME
LAW
EXPLANATION
Grosch’s
Law
Bigger
computers are better
Computing power increases with the
square of its cost
Moores
Law
Smaller computers are Transistor density on a manufactured
semiconductor doubles about every 18
better
months
Metcalfe’s
Law
Connected computers
are better
The value of a network grows as the
square of the number of its users
Wirth’s
Law
Machines may leap,
but programs creep
Software gets slower faster than
hardware gets faster
Gilder’s
Law
Networks will triple every
year
For the foreseeable future, the total
bandwidth of communications systems
will triple every 12 months
Slide 15 of 13