Transcript Share of Policy Options in Issued Signals and Recommendations

The Informal Economy in the EU Accession Countries: Size, Scope,
Trends and Challenges to the Process of EU Enlargement
Risk Reporting and Early Warning for Good
Governance and Against Corruption
by Associate Professor Atanas Gotchev, Ph. D.
UNDP–Sofia and University of National and World Economy, Bulgaria
Essence of Early Warning
Activity for notifying decisionmakers of possible crisis, which
includes:
• Risk assessment
• Development of strategic
responses
• Suggestion of policy options
For What Purposes Do You Use
the Early Warning Report
9,1
Other
18,2
For business decision
making
36,4
For policy making
65,9
For preparing reports
to headquarters
For background
information only
57,8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
How useful is this publication
to your work?
Of some use
10%
Useful
49%
Irrelevant
0%
Very useful
41%
Share of Policy Options in the
Predictions made by EWR
Predictions that
do not include
policy options
41%
Predictions that
include policy
options
59%
Policy Impact of
Signals and Recommendations
in Terms of Policy Actions
No action was
taken, no
reform is
pending
27%
Cases where
action is not
taken but
reform is
pending
31%
Cases where
policy action
was taken
42%
Impediments to EW as
a Policy Making Tool
Ability to “hear” the EW signal
Ability to attend to the EW signal
Ability to respond to EW signal
The presentation of the EW signal
Ability to Hear the EW Signal
Institutional culture
Information overflow and expertise
Ruling elites may lack political will to
“hear” warning signals and take early
action
Ability to Attend and Respond
to the EW Signal
Human and financial resources may
not be sufficient for adequate
reaction
Existing policy frameworks
determine the policy action that
follows alert signals
The Presentation of the EW Signal
Effective EW requires identification of
priorities for prevention action
Initial signals are unusually “weak”
and may be drowned or dismissed
EW should identify the “highest”
near-term threat
EW should suggest only realistic
recommendations for policy actions
EW should match the capacity of endusers to recognize the presented risks
The Presentation of the EW
(Publicity)
Higher publicity could increase the
pressure for early action
Early warnings touch upon sensitive
issues and publicity may impede the
dialogue between early warners and
decision-makers
EW should become public only after
decision-makers are aware of them
Future Directions
The state of the art of early warning
should be constantly improved
NGOs or IOs based early warning
systems should develop better liaison
with state agencies
Donor governments and international
organizations should engage more
actively the NGO sector in early
warning activities