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Wilhelm Krull The Reality and Visions of the XXI Century Warsaw, 24 October 2008 „The Gordian Knot is a metaphor for an intractable problem that can be solved by a bold stroke, which is called the Alexandrian Solution. Gordian Knots emerge as a result of delaying necessary strategic choices.“ (K. Rybiński, P. Opala, M. Hołda, Gordian knots of the 21st century, Warsaw 2008) The Club of Rome, the Volkswagen Foundation, and „The Limits To Growth“ (1972) „The most important business on earth, quite literally, is the business of planetary planning. This book is a pioneering effort in that direction.“ NORMAN COUSINS „If this book doesn‘t blow everybody‘s mind who can read without moving his lips, then the earth is kaput.“ ROBERT C. TOWNSEND Modelling the World Source: Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III.: The Limits to Growth. A Report on the Club of Rome‘s Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York 1972. My Own Experience in Solving Gordian Knots: ➨ German unification in higher education and research ➨ Implementing a structure for the competitive funding of basic research at the European level. The Transformation of East German Universities and Academy Institutes ► Centralised versus federal structures ► Evaluation of performance and potential ► Restructuring of existing institutions ► Establishing new institutes (Max Planck) ► Open up new opportunities for those who suffered from the old regime. Prerequisites for success were: courage, creativity, sensitivity, persistance, communication, fairness, and trust. The East German States by 2050 ➨ Some attractive Science & Technology based metropolitan regions (e.g. Dresden, Leipzig, Jena, Potsdam, Rostock, …)? ➨ Large rural areas, in particular in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania and Brandenburg, with only a few elderly people left? – Waiting for the wolves to return? The Long and Winding Road to the ERC ► Already in the early 1970‘s, when finally the European Science Foundation was established, there were intensive talks with the European Commission about the need for a Research Council. ► In the early 1990‘s the German Science Council recommended to open up a new pathway for basic research funding at the European level. ► At the beginning of the 21st Century (with the implementation of the 7th Framework Programme) an ERC was established. Prerequisites: courage, creativity, sensitivity, persistance, communication, fairness, and trust. Political Challenges for European Research and Higher Education Europe faces increased global competition – particularly in the field of research and technological development; Research is not supported sufficiently in Europe, particularly with respect to risky, open-ended research; EU funding instruments are perceived as bureaucratic and intransparent, and follow rather cumbersome procedures; The ‘juste retour’ principle is non-scientific and in the end detrimental to the quality of research; However, we need instruments to create cohesion as well as to foster research and higher education in Central and Eastern Europe. The Framework Programme Budgets 50,5 seven-year lifespan 2007-2013 17,5 15,0 13,1 5,4 6,7 3,3 FP1 FP2 FP3 FP4 FP5 FP6 FP7 Source: European Commission The European Research Council – Establishing Excellence The idea for establishing the ERC came out of widespread discussions between European scientists, scholars and research umbrella organisations on the need for a structure at EU level to support investigator-driven fundamental research of the highest quality, to combat the prevailing fragmentation of research efforts in Europe. December 2006: Following its adoption by the European Parliament, the ERC and its seven-year 7.5 billion Euro budget got the seal of approval by the Council. February 2007: The European Research Council was officially launched at an inaugural conference in Berlin. April 2007: The first ERC call for proposals closed with 9167 preliminary applications having been submitted. ERC – Organisation Structure The ERC in a Nutshell – Putting Excellence at the Heart of European Research The European Research Council aims to support the best of the best scientific efforts in Europe across all fields of science, scholarship and engineering, promote wholly investigator-driven, or 'bottom-up' frontier research, encourage the work of the established and next generation of independent top research leaders in Europe, reward innovative proposals by placing emphasis on the quality of the idea rather than the research area, harness the diversity of European research talent and channel funds into the most promising or distinguished researchers, raise the status and visibility of European frontier research and the very best researchers of today and tomorrow. The ERC – Beneficial for European Research The ERC fosters a Europe wide competition for grants – and scientific excellence. The ERC puts excellence before nationality. The ERC can help nurture science-based industry and create a greater impetus for the establishment of research-based spinoffs. The ERC can provide a mechanism for investing rapidly in research targeted at new and emerging issues confronting society. By 2050: The establishment of the ERC was a great step towards creating a (truly) autonomous organisation to the benefit of the European Research Area. The Demographic Perspectives of an Ageing Continent Population Development in Europe According to Age Groups 1950 to 2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, DESA (2007): World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Consequences of the Babyboom for Ireland, Germany, and Bulgaria Ireland: Set to remain young Men Women Germany: Set to continue aging Bulgary: On the road to senescence Age groups as a percentage of the total population (Source:Eurostat) (c) 2008 Berlin-Institut / Deutscher Taschenbuch Verlag, München Average Feritlity Rates in Europe‘s Regions (2005) Continent with low birth rates (Source: Eurostat; Data for Balearus, Ukraine, Moldova and Serbia available only at natural level) (c) 2008 Berlin-Institut / Deutscher Taschenbuch Verlag, München Population Projection 2004 to 2030, in Percent (Source: Eurostat, United Nations, national statistics offices; data for Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Croatia, and Serbia available only at national level) (c) 2008 Berlin-Institut / Deutscher Taschenbuch Verlag, München Overall Assessement of 285 European Regions (c) 2008 Berlin-Institut / Deutscher Taschenbuch Verlag, München Further Challenges Ahead ➨ Peace-keeping across the globe ➨ Climate change and its impact on population development, migration, etc. ➨ Global health and regional security ➨ The capacity of an ageing continent to innovate rapidly and radically ➨ Balancing supply and demand of highly skilled, well-trained people. Success and Failure in the Labyrinth of Research Cabinet Office: R&D Assessment. A Guide for Customers and Managers of Research and Development. London 1989,12. “Amidst all the difficulties, there is room for opportunities.“ Albert Einstein