New Hampshire Travel Council
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Transcript New Hampshire Travel Council
Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC
Matthew R. Arrants
Pinnacle Advisory Group
76 Canal Street
Boston, MA 02114
Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917
[email protected]
[email protected]
New Hampshire Outlook
Pinnacle Realty Investments
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Total United States
Room Supply/Demand Percent Change
12 Month Moving Average To August 2003
6
4
2
0
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
-2
-4
-6
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2002
2003
Total United States
Occupancy / ADR Percent Change
12 Month Moving Average To August 2003
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Occ % Change
ADR % Change
-6
-8
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2002
2003
Total United States
Occupancy and ADR
12 Month Moving Average To August 2003
90
85
Peak $86.64
July 2001
Occupancy (%)
ADR ($)
80
$82.70
Aug 2002
75
70
$83.13
Aug 2003
58.5 %
Aug 2002
65
60
Peak
65.2%
55
58.9%
Aug 2003
50
1996
1997
1998
Source: Smith Travel Research
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Total U.S.
Monthly Occupancy
Year-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003
70
65
60
55
Prior 12 Months
50
Current 12 Months
45
40
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Source: Smith Travel Research
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Total U.S.
Monthly ADR
Year-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003
90
85
Prior 12 Months
80
Current 12 Months
75
Ju
l
g
Au
Se
p
t
Oc
v
No
Source: Smith Travel Research
c
De
Ja
n
Fe
b
r
Ma
r
Ap
y
Ma
Ju
n
Ju
l
g
Au
Total U.S.
Monthly RevPar
Year-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003
60
55
50
45
Prior 12 Months
40
Current 12 Months
35
30
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Smith Travel Research
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Total U.S.
Daily Occupancy*
Sep 13 YTD 2000 - 2003
80%
2000
2001
2002
2003
75%
70%
72.4%
70.6%
69.3%
67.5%
65%
64.5%
62.0%
61.2%
60%
55%
50%
Weekday
* Excluding Sunday
Weekend
68.9%
Total U.S.
Average Daily Room Revenue (M)
Sep 13 YTD 2000 - 2003
270
In Millions
2000
2001
2002
2003
260
$260.3
$258.6
$254.6
$251.1
250
$245.4
$240.0
240
$230.5
230
$228.4
220
210
Weekday
* Excluding Sunday
Weekend
Total United States
Supply/Demand Percent Change
1998 – 2004P
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
3.9
3.8
2.8
3
3.5
2.8
3.5
2.3
2
1.7
1.4
1.4
0.6
Supply % Chg
Demand % Chg
-3.5
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2002
2003P 2004P
Total United States
Occupancy Percent
1998 – 2004P
70
65
63.4
62.9
63.3
59.7
60
60.6
59.1
59.4
2002
2003P
55
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2004P
Total United States
ADR Percent Change
1998 – 2004P
10
5
4.6
5.5
3.8
2
0.4
0
-1
-1.5
-5
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2002
2003P
2004P
Total U.S.
Estimated ADR Change
Impact of 3rd Party Intermediaries
7%
6%
5.5%
5.8%
Reported
5%
Estimated
4%
3%
2.5%
2.0%
2%
0.8%
0.4%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-0.7%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-1.5%
2001
2002
-3%
2000
2003*
2004*
Total U.S.
Estimated Lost Room Revenue
3rd Party Intermediaries
In Millions
1,500
$1,284.1
1,300
1,100
$872.3
900
700
500
300
$375.0
$200.5
100
2000
2001
2002
2003*
New England Lodging Market
New England Occupancy - 2002
80.0%
67.1%
70.0%
62.2%
60.1%
60.0%
57.7%
60.2%
55.7%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
New England Average Daily Rate – 2002
$120.0
$100.0
$112.55
$111.34
$94.16
$90.92
$84.75
$79.05
$80.0
$60.0
$40.0
$20.0
$0.0
Connecticut
Rhode Island Massachusetts
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Vermont
New
Hampshire
Maine
New England RevPAR – 2002
$80.0
$75.52
$66.92
$70.0
$60.0
$56.55
$54.33
$51.02
$50.0
$44.03
$40.0
$30.0
$20.0
$10.0
$0.0
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Vermont
New
Hampshire
Maine
New England Change in Performance - 2002
2.0%
am
H
ai
ne
M
ps
hi
re
on
t
ew
-4.0%
N
C
-2.0%
Ve
rm
on
ne
ct
ic
ut
R
ho
de
Is
la
nd
M
as
sa
ch
us
et
ts
0.0%
Occupancy
Avg Rate
RevPAR
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
New England Change in Performance – YTD
August 2003
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
ai
ne
M
ps
hi
re
Ha
m
on
t
Ve
rm
as
sa
ch
us
et
ts
Is
la
nd
ut
-8.0%
Ne
w
-6.0%
M
-4.0%
Rh
od
e
tic
Co
nn
ec
-2.0%
Occupancy
Avg Rate
RevPAR
New Hampshire Lodging Market
Year-to-date Occupancy – August
Major Markets vs. Statewide Average
80.0%
71.0%
68.9%
70.0%
63.1%
60.0%
54.4%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Portsmouth
Nashua
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester
Concord
Year-to-date Average Rate – August
Major Markets vs. Statewide Average
$120.0
$105.00
$100.0
$91.01
$79.59
$81.04
$80.0
$60.0
$40.0
$20.0
$0.0
Portsmouth
Nashua
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester
Concord
Year-to-date RevPAR – August
Major Markets vs. Statewide Average
$80.0
$74.55
$70.0
$60.0
$50.0
$57.43
$54.84
Manchester
Concord
$44.09
$40.0
$30.0
$20.0
$10.0
$0.0
Portsmouth
Nashua
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Change In Performance by Market
YTD Aug 2003
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
Portsmouth
Nashua
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester
Concord
Occupancy
Avg Rate
RevPAR
Portsmouth Lodging Market
Portsmouth Year To Date Occupancy (Aug)
80%
75%
76%
75%
71%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Portsmouth Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug)
$106.00
$105.00
$105.00
$104.00
$103.00
$102.00
$101.00
$101.00
2001
2002
$101.00
$100.00
$99.00
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2003
Portsmouth Year To Date RevPAR (Aug)
$76.76
$77.00
$76.50
$76.00
$75.75
$75.50
$75.00
$74.55
$74.50
$74.00
$73.50
$73.00
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Portsmouth - Factors Affecting
Market Performance
Lack of Scandals (Cabletron/Tyco)
New Supply
– Wentworth
– 2 Hotels in Zoning
– Developer Interest
Improving economy?
Cautious Optimism
Nashua / Merrimack Lodging
Market
Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date
Occupancy (Aug)
65%
62%
60%
55%
54%
2002
2003
55%
50%
45%
40%
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date Avg. Rate
(Aug)
$88.00
$87.01
$87.00
$86.00
$85.00
$84.00
$83.29
$83.00
$82.00
$81.04
$81.00
$80.00
$79.00
$78.00
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date RevPAR
(Aug)
$60.00
$53.95
$50.00
$45.81
$44.09
2002
2003
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Nashua - Factors Affecting
Market Performance
Improving Business Travel
Increases in Group Demand
No New Supply
Cautious Optimism
Manchester Lodging Market
Manchester Year To Date Occupancy (Aug)
75%
71%
68%
70%
63%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Manchester Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug)
$94.00
$93.57
$93.50
$93.00
$92.50
$91.76
$92.00
$91.50
$91.01
$91.00
$90.50
$90.00
$89.50
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Manchester Year To Date RevPAR (Aug)
$68.00
$66.53
$66.00
$64.00
$62.58
$62.00
$60.00
$57.43
$58.00
$56.00
$54.00
$52.00
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Manchester - Factors Affecting
Market Performance
New Supply
New Supply
New Supply
Manchester – New Supply
Springhill Suites – 3/02
Holiday Express – 3/03
Hampton Inn and Suites – 10/03
Homewood Suites – 10/03
Residence Inn - 2005?
Hilton Garden Inn – 2005?
Concord Lodging Market
Concord Year To Date Occupancy (Aug)
75%
70%
72%
69%
69%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Concord Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug)
$80.00
$79.59
$79.50
$79.00
$78.50
$78.00
$77.50
$77.32
$77.23
2001
2002
$77.00
$76.50
$76.00
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2003
Concord Year To Date RevPAR (Aug)
$56.00
$55.53
$55.50
$54.84
$55.00
$54.50
$54.00
$53.51
$53.50
$53.00
$52.50
$52.00
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Concord - Factors Affecting
Market Performance
No New Supply
Changes at the Hampton Inn Bow
Departure of Allegro
Some Modest Growth
White Mountains and Lakes
Region
White Mountains and Lakes
Region – Market Performance
Rates are Up Occupancy is down
Overall, markets are relatively flat but
there are winners and losers
Short Booking Window
Shorter Lengths of Stay
Outlook for corporate and tour
groups looks good for 2004
Conclusion / Summary
Signs are positive for Most Markets
Group Pace for 04 is ahead of 03
More Stable Geopolitical Situation
Improving Economy
Overall – Cautious Optimism
2004 Projections*
White Mountains and Lakes Region
– Occupancy up 3 Points
– Rates up 2 Percent
Portsmouth
– Occupancy up 1 point
– Rates up 3 percent
Nashua - Merrimack
– Occupancy up 2 points
– Rates up 2 percent
Manchester
– Occupancy down 2 points
– Rates Flat
Concord
– Occupancy up 2 points
– Rates up 2 percent
*(Do not reflect impact of Primaries)
Rachel J. Roginsky
Matthew R. Arrants
Pinnacle Advisory Group
76 Canal Street
Boston, MA 02114
Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917
[email protected]
[email protected]
New Hampshire Outlook
Pinnacle Realty Investments
Pinnacle Advisory Group