Transcript New Hampshire Travel Council

Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC
Matthew R. Arrants
Pinnacle Advisory Group
76 Canal Street
Boston, MA 02114
Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917
[email protected]
[email protected]
New Hampshire Outlook
Pinnacle Realty Investments
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Total United States
Room Supply/Demand Percent Change
12 Month Moving Average To August 2003
6
4
2
0
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
-2
-4
-6
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2002
2003
Total United States
Occupancy / ADR Percent Change
12 Month Moving Average To August 2003
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Occ % Change
ADR % Change
-6
-8
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2002
2003
Total United States
Occupancy and ADR
12 Month Moving Average To August 2003
90
85
Peak $86.64
July 2001
Occupancy (%)
ADR ($)
80
$82.70
Aug 2002
75
70
$83.13
Aug 2003
58.5 %
Aug 2002
65
60
Peak
65.2%
55
58.9%
Aug 2003
50
1996
1997
1998
Source: Smith Travel Research
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Total U.S.
Monthly Occupancy
Year-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003
70
65
60
55
Prior 12 Months
50
Current 12 Months
45
40
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Source: Smith Travel Research
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Total U.S.
Monthly ADR
Year-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003
90
85
Prior 12 Months
80
Current 12 Months
75
Ju
l
g
Au
Se
p
t
Oc
v
No
Source: Smith Travel Research
c
De
Ja
n
Fe
b
r
Ma
r
Ap
y
Ma
Ju
n
Ju
l
g
Au
Total U.S.
Monthly RevPar
Year-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003
60
55
50
45
Prior 12 Months
40
Current 12 Months
35
30
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Smith Travel Research
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Total U.S.
Daily Occupancy*
Sep 13 YTD 2000 - 2003
80%
2000
2001
2002
2003
75%
70%
72.4%
70.6%
69.3%
67.5%
65%
64.5%
62.0%
61.2%
60%
55%
50%
Weekday
* Excluding Sunday
Weekend
68.9%
Total U.S.
Average Daily Room Revenue (M)
Sep 13 YTD 2000 - 2003
270
In Millions
2000
2001
2002
2003
260
$260.3
$258.6
$254.6
$251.1
250
$245.4
$240.0
240
$230.5
230
$228.4
220
210
Weekday
* Excluding Sunday
Weekend
Total United States
Supply/Demand Percent Change
1998 – 2004P
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
3.9
3.8
2.8
3
3.5
2.8
3.5
2.3
2
1.7
1.4
1.4
0.6
Supply % Chg
Demand % Chg
-3.5
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2002
2003P 2004P
Total United States
Occupancy Percent
1998 – 2004P
70
65
63.4
62.9
63.3
59.7
60
60.6
59.1
59.4
2002
2003P
55
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2004P
Total United States
ADR Percent Change
1998 – 2004P
10
5
4.6
5.5
3.8
2
0.4
0
-1
-1.5
-5
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2002
2003P
2004P
Total U.S.
Estimated ADR Change
Impact of 3rd Party Intermediaries
7%
6%
5.5%
5.8%
Reported
5%
Estimated
4%
3%
2.5%
2.0%
2%
0.8%
0.4%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-0.7%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-1.5%
2001
2002
-3%
2000
2003*
2004*
Total U.S.
Estimated Lost Room Revenue
3rd Party Intermediaries
In Millions
1,500
$1,284.1
1,300
1,100
$872.3
900
700
500
300
$375.0
$200.5
100
2000
2001
2002
2003*
New England Lodging Market
New England Occupancy - 2002
80.0%
67.1%
70.0%
62.2%
60.1%
60.0%
57.7%
60.2%
55.7%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
New England Average Daily Rate – 2002
$120.0
$100.0
$112.55
$111.34
$94.16
$90.92
$84.75
$79.05
$80.0
$60.0
$40.0
$20.0
$0.0
Connecticut
Rhode Island Massachusetts
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Vermont
New
Hampshire
Maine
New England RevPAR – 2002
$80.0
$75.52
$66.92
$70.0
$60.0
$56.55
$54.33
$51.02
$50.0
$44.03
$40.0
$30.0
$20.0
$10.0
$0.0
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Vermont
New
Hampshire
Maine
New England Change in Performance - 2002
2.0%
am
H
ai
ne
M
ps
hi
re
on
t
ew
-4.0%
N
C
-2.0%
Ve
rm
on
ne
ct
ic
ut
R
ho
de
Is
la
nd
M
as
sa
ch
us
et
ts
0.0%
Occupancy
Avg Rate
RevPAR
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
New England Change in Performance – YTD
August 2003
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
ai
ne
M
ps
hi
re
Ha
m
on
t
Ve
rm
as
sa
ch
us
et
ts
Is
la
nd
ut
-8.0%
Ne
w
-6.0%
M
-4.0%
Rh
od
e
tic
Co
nn
ec
-2.0%
Occupancy
Avg Rate
RevPAR
New Hampshire Lodging Market
Year-to-date Occupancy – August
Major Markets vs. Statewide Average
80.0%
71.0%
68.9%
70.0%
63.1%
60.0%
54.4%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Portsmouth
Nashua
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester
Concord
Year-to-date Average Rate – August
Major Markets vs. Statewide Average
$120.0
$105.00
$100.0
$91.01
$79.59
$81.04
$80.0
$60.0
$40.0
$20.0
$0.0
Portsmouth
Nashua
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester
Concord
Year-to-date RevPAR – August
Major Markets vs. Statewide Average
$80.0
$74.55
$70.0
$60.0
$50.0
$57.43
$54.84
Manchester
Concord
$44.09
$40.0
$30.0
$20.0
$10.0
$0.0
Portsmouth
Nashua
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Change In Performance by Market
YTD Aug 2003
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
Portsmouth
Nashua
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester
Concord
Occupancy
Avg Rate
RevPAR
Portsmouth Lodging Market
Portsmouth Year To Date Occupancy (Aug)
80%
75%
76%
75%
71%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Portsmouth Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug)
$106.00
$105.00
$105.00
$104.00
$103.00
$102.00
$101.00
$101.00
2001
2002
$101.00
$100.00
$99.00
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2003
Portsmouth Year To Date RevPAR (Aug)
$76.76
$77.00
$76.50
$76.00
$75.75
$75.50
$75.00
$74.55
$74.50
$74.00
$73.50
$73.00
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Portsmouth - Factors Affecting
Market Performance
Lack of Scandals (Cabletron/Tyco)
 New Supply

– Wentworth
– 2 Hotels in Zoning
– Developer Interest
Improving economy?
 Cautious Optimism

Nashua / Merrimack Lodging
Market
Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date
Occupancy (Aug)
65%
62%
60%
55%
54%
2002
2003
55%
50%
45%
40%
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date Avg. Rate
(Aug)
$88.00
$87.01
$87.00
$86.00
$85.00
$84.00
$83.29
$83.00
$82.00
$81.04
$81.00
$80.00
$79.00
$78.00
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date RevPAR
(Aug)
$60.00
$53.95
$50.00
$45.81
$44.09
2002
2003
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Nashua - Factors Affecting
Market Performance
Improving Business Travel
 Increases in Group Demand
 No New Supply
 Cautious Optimism

Manchester Lodging Market
Manchester Year To Date Occupancy (Aug)
75%
71%
68%
70%
63%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Manchester Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug)
$94.00
$93.57
$93.50
$93.00
$92.50
$91.76
$92.00
$91.50
$91.01
$91.00
$90.50
$90.00
$89.50
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Manchester Year To Date RevPAR (Aug)
$68.00
$66.53
$66.00
$64.00
$62.58
$62.00
$60.00
$57.43
$58.00
$56.00
$54.00
$52.00
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Manchester - Factors Affecting
Market Performance
New Supply
 New Supply
 New Supply

Manchester – New Supply
Springhill Suites – 3/02
 Holiday Express – 3/03
 Hampton Inn and Suites – 10/03
 Homewood Suites – 10/03
 Residence Inn - 2005?
 Hilton Garden Inn – 2005?

Concord Lodging Market
Concord Year To Date Occupancy (Aug)
75%
70%
72%
69%
69%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Concord Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug)
$80.00
$79.59
$79.50
$79.00
$78.50
$78.00
$77.50
$77.32
$77.23
2001
2002
$77.00
$76.50
$76.00
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2003
Concord Year To Date RevPAR (Aug)
$56.00
$55.53
$55.50
$54.84
$55.00
$54.50
$54.00
$53.51
$53.50
$53.00
$52.50
$52.00
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003
Concord - Factors Affecting
Market Performance
No New Supply
 Changes at the Hampton Inn Bow
 Departure of Allegro
 Some Modest Growth

White Mountains and Lakes
Region
White Mountains and Lakes
Region – Market Performance
Rates are Up Occupancy is down
 Overall, markets are relatively flat but
there are winners and losers
 Short Booking Window
 Shorter Lengths of Stay
 Outlook for corporate and tour
groups looks good for 2004

Conclusion / Summary
Signs are positive for Most Markets
 Group Pace for 04 is ahead of 03
 More Stable Geopolitical Situation
 Improving Economy
 Overall – Cautious Optimism

2004 Projections*





White Mountains and Lakes Region
– Occupancy up 3 Points
– Rates up 2 Percent
Portsmouth
– Occupancy up 1 point
– Rates up 3 percent
Nashua - Merrimack
– Occupancy up 2 points
– Rates up 2 percent
Manchester
– Occupancy down 2 points
– Rates Flat
Concord
– Occupancy up 2 points
– Rates up 2 percent
*(Do not reflect impact of Primaries)
Rachel J. Roginsky
Matthew R. Arrants
Pinnacle Advisory Group
76 Canal Street
Boston, MA 02114
Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917
[email protected]
[email protected]
New Hampshire Outlook
Pinnacle Realty Investments
Pinnacle Advisory Group