Transcript NAIOP Presentation (Power Point)

Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC
Pinnacle Advisory Group
76 Canal Street
Boston, MA 02114
Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917
[email protected]
NAIOP Presentation
Pinnacle Realty Investments
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Lodging Statistics
•National
•Boston / Cambridge
•Suburban Boston
Total United States
Room Supply/Demand Percent Change
Twelve Month Moving Average To Dec 2002
6
4
2
0
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
-2
-4
-6
1996
1997
1998
Source: Smith Travel Research
1999
2000
2001
2002
Total United States
Room Demand Percent Change
Jan 2000 – Dec 2002
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2 0 0 0
Source: Smith Travel Research
2 0
0 1
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Total United States
Occupancy and ADR
Twelve Month Moving Average To Dec 2002
90
Peak $87
June 2001
Occupancy (%)
ADR ($)
85
80
$83.15
Dec 2002
75
70
65
60
Peak
65.2%
55
59.2 %
Dec 2002
50
1996
1997
1998
Source: Smith Travel Research
1999
2000
2001
2002
65
60
55
50
Source: Smith Travel Research
75
70
INDUSTRY AVERAGE 59.2 %
NEW YORK, NY
OAHU ISLAND
SAN DIEGO, CA
WASHINGTON, DC
LOS ANGELES, CA
PHILADELPHIA, PA
ANAHEIM, CA
BOSTON, MA
ORLANDO, FL
NEW ORLEANS, LA
MIAMI-HIALEAH, FL
NORFOLK, VA
SAN FRANCISCO, CA
SEATTLE, WA
MINNEAPOLIS, MN
ST. LOUIS, MO-IL
TAMPA, FL
CHICAGO, IL
DENVER, CO
HOUSTON, TX
TOTAL US
PHOENIX, AZ
ATLANTA, GA
NASHVILLE, TN
DETROIT, MI
DALLAS, TX
Top 25 Markets
Occupancy Percent
December 2002 YTD
-10
-15
Source: Smith Travel Research
10
5
0
-5
INDUSTRY AVERAGE -1.5 %
NORFOLK, VA
PHILADELPHIA, PA
ST. LOUIS, MO-IL
HOUSTON, TX
NASHVILLE, TN
SAN DIEGO, CA
ORLANDO, FL
TOTAL U.S.
WASHINGTON, DC
MINNEAPOLIS, MN
NEW ORLEANS, LA
ATLANTA, GA
LOS ANGELES, CA
DALLAS, TX
CHICAGO, IL
ANAHEIM, CA
SEATTLE, WA
TAMPA, FL
DENVER, CO
DETROIT, MI
PHOENIX, AZ
OAHU ISLAND
NEW YORK, NY
MIAMI-HIALEAH, FL
BOSTON, MA
SAN FRANCISCO, CA
Top 25 Markets
ADR Percent Change
December 2002 YTD Year over Year
2
0
-2
Source: Smith Travel Research
6
4
INDUSTRY AVERAGE 1.8 %
NEW ORLEANS, LA
ANAHEIM, CA
DETROIT, MI
BOSTON, MA
SEATTLE, WA
MINNEAPOLIS, MN
SAN FRANCISCO, CA
CHICAGO, IL
HOUSTON, TX
NASHVILLE, TN
SAN DIEGO, CA
ORLANDO, FL
LOS ANGELES, CA
TOTAL U.S.
ATLANTA, GA
PHILADELPHIA, PA
NEW YORK, NY
NORFOLK, VA
WASHINGTON, DC
DENVER, CO
DALLAS, TX
ST. LOUIS, MO-IL
TAMPA, FL
PHOENIX, AZ
OAHU ISLAND
MIAMI-HIALEAH, FL
Top 25 Markets
Room Supply Percent Change
December 2002 YTD Year over Year
Boston / Cambridge Occupancy 1989 – 2002
79%
80%
78%
78%
79%
78%
77%
77%
78%
76%
75%
74%
74%
72%
72%
72%
72%
70%
70%
68%
68%
66%
64%
62%
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Boston / Cambridge Average Room Rate 1989-2002
$250
$199.74
$188.77
$200
$181.34
$176.65
$165.04
$161.15
$143.58
$150
$114.11 $118.72 $115.96 $113.92 $117.35
$125.03
$132.93
$100
$50
$1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Boston / Cambridge Lodging Supply 1989 - 2002
18,000
15,624
16,000
14,000
14,167
13,692 13,827 13,962 13,962 14,068
13,422
13,368
13,304
16,298 16,610
16,997
14,785
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Suburban Boston Occupancy 1995-2002
80%
69.4%
70%
71%
73%
70%
70%
66%
61%
58%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1995
1996
1997
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Suburban Boston Average Room Rate 1995 - 2002
$120
$111.15
$97.91
$100
$108.23
$102.07
$97.37
$89.87
$81.51
$80
$75.35
$60
$40
$20
$1995
1996
1997
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Suburban Boston Lodging Supply 1995 - 2002
30,000
26,988
25,772
25,000
22,928
20,387
20,387
20,677
20,677
1995
1996
1997
1998
23,998
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
1999
2000
2001
2002
Key Boston Lodging Market Issues
•New
Supply Pipeline
•Boston Convention and Exhibition Center
•Changes in Demand
Boston / Cambridge New Supply Pipeline
•
Compound Annual Growth of 1.9% Between 1989 and
2002
• Inventory Growth of 4.9% Projected in 2003
• Projected Compound Annual Growth of 5.3% between
2002 and 2007
The Pipeline - Boston/Cambridge
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Commonwealth Hotel–150 Rooms - April 2003
Embassy Suites–273 Rooms - February 2003
Hotel Marlowe -236 Rooms - March 2003
Residence Inn – 168 Rooms – May 2003
Jurys Doyle – 220 Rooms – April 2004
Hotel Onyx– 112 Rooms – July 2004
Charles Street Jail-300 Rooms – July 2004
Hampton Inn Crosstown – 175 Rooms – July 2004
Robin Brown Hotel –168 Rooms - Spring 2006
The Pipeline – Seaport District
•
•
•
•
•
Renaissance – 438-Rooms April 2005
Sheraton HQ – 800-Rooms September 2005
Intercontinental – 420-Rooms - July 2005
Grand Hyatt – 500-Rooms – January 2006
Anthony’s Pier 4 – 250-Rooms – April 2007
Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - BCEC
•
•
•
•
•
Projected Opening - June 2004
HQ Hotel Projected Opening September 2005
24 Definite Events
600,000 Room Nights Upon Stabilization
Currently 128,000 definite room nights on books for
2006
Convention Center Related Demand
•
In 2000 the Hynes Generated 400,000 Room Nights
(7 occupancy points for the entire Boston Cambridge
market)
•
Upon Stabilization the BCEC is expected to generate
approximately 600,000 room nights in addition to
300,000 at the Hynes , which results in a total of
900,000 room nights (11 occupancy points)
Boston / Cambridge Demand 2002 (Estimated)
Airline
Leisure 5%
27%
Group
32%
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Corporate
36%
The Future…..
Factors Affecting Future Demand
•
•
•
•
•
•
New Convention Center
New Office Supply and Vacancies
Logan Modernization
Completion of the Big Dig
Economy
Budget Cuts
Boston / Cambridge 2003 Projections
Occupancy
2002
72%
2003
70%
Change
-2 Pts.
Rate
$165.04
$161.74
-2.0%
RevPAR
$118.82
$113.21
-4.7%
Suburban Boston 2003 Projections
Occupancy
2002
58%
2003
57%
Change
-1 Pts.
Rate
$97.37
$94.42
-2.0%
RevPAR
$56.47
$54.39
-3.7%
NAIOP Presentation
Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC
Pinnacle Advisory Group
76 Canal Street
Boston, MA 02114
Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917
[email protected]
Pinnacle Realty Investments
Pinnacle Advisory Group