Transcript Total United States Occupancy and ADR Percent Change YTD

Spring Meeting
JW Marriott Indianapolis
05.09.13
Stephen R. Hennis, CHA, ISHC
Director
Total US - Key Statistics
12-Months Ending March 2013
% Change
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Hotels
Room Supply
Room Demand
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
Room Revenue
51.3k
1.8B
1.1B
61.6%
$107.21
$66.08
$117.2B
0.6%
2.6%
2.1%
4.3%
6.5%
7.1%
Total United States
Room Supply/Demand Percent Change
Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2013
10
8
6
4
2
Supply % Change
Feb ‘11
7.7%
Demand % Change
June ‘89
5.3%
Jan ‘89
4.6%
0
Aug ‘06
-0.2%
Oct ‘91
-0.9%
-2
-4
Mar ‘02
-4.7%
-6
Sept ‘09
-7.1%
-8
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Total United States
Occupancy/ADR Percent Change
Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2013
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
Oct ’06
7.5
Apr ’11
6.2
Jan ’92
0.1
Aug ’02
-4.5
June ’91
-3.4
Mar ’02
-6.7
Occ % Chg
ADR % Chg
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Sept ’09
-9.7
2004
2007
Jan ’10
-8.9
2010
2013
Total United States
Occupancy
Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2013
70
June ‘06
63.6
65
Mar ‘13
61.6
Dec ‘91
61.9
60
Aug ‘02
58.5
55
Jan ‘10
54.5
50
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Total United States
Average Daily Rate
Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2013
110
Sept ‘08
107.74
Mar‘13
107.21
100
June ‘01
85.72
90
80
70
60
50
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Chain Scales
Supply / Demand Percent Change
March YTD 2013
6
Supply
Demand
5
4
3.7
3
2.7
2.3
1.8
2
1.4
1.6
0.9
1
0.1
0
-1
3.7
0.0
-0.7
-2
-1.6
Luxury
Upper Upscale
Upscale
Upper
Midscale
Midscale
Economy
Chain Scales
Occupancy / ADR Percent Change
March 2013 YTD
8
Occupancy
ADR
6.3
6
5.0
4.1
4
3.8
3.6
3.2
3.1
2.0
2
1.4
0.9
1.7
0.9
0
Luxury
Upper Upscale
Upscale
Upper
Midscale
Midscale
Economy
Total United States
Monthly Transient Demand
2007 Through March 2013
25
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Millions
20
15
10
5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
Nov
Dec
Total United States
Monthly Transient ADR
2007 Through March 2013
$200
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$190
$180
$170
$160
$150
$140
$130
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
Nov
Dec
Total United States
Monthly Group Demand
2007 Through March 2013
12
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
11
Millions
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
Nov
Dec
Total United States
Monthly Group ADR
2007 Through March 2013
$180
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$170
$160
$150
$140
$130
$120
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
Nov
Dec
Total United States
Actual ADR ($) by Customer Segment
Year to Date 2007- March 2013
$185
$183.26
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$180
$175
$175.31
$174.17
$170
$165.75
$163.64
$165
$160
$155
$159.63
$157.32
$151.44
$150
$159.14
$158.63
$156.20
$154.19
$150.23
$146.88
$145
$140
Transient
Group
NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
RevPAR Recovery
Market Tracts
% of Peak RevPAR
RevPAR Recovery
Market Tracts
% of Peak RevPAR
Top 25 Markets
Room Demand Percent Change
March 2013 YTD
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
RevPAR Peak-Trough-Recovery Timeframe
2006
San Francisco
Miami
Oahu
Boston
Nashville
Los Angeles
Denver
Detroit
Houston
Seattle
Anaheim
Dallas
St. Louis
Chicago
Minneapolis
New Orleans
Tampa
Atlanta
New York
Philadelphia
San Diego
Orlando
Washington
Norfolk
Phoenix
2007
2008
2009
2010
37 mos
41
42
44
47
48
54
55
57
58
59
60
61
65
67
68
68
70
71
73
74
78
83+
96
96+
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
a
Actual
Estimated
HOST Almanac
2012 vs. 2011 Preliminary Flow-Through
“Same Store” YOY Change 2012 vs 2011
14%
12%
10.5%
10%
9.2%
8%
6%
5.7%
4%
5.8%
3.8%
3.8%
Dept Exp
Operating Exp
2%
0%
Revenue
GOP
Fixed Exp
NOI
Hotel Transaction Almanac
Transaction Volume 2000–2013
$35
$30
Billions
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
proj
Pipeline
Under Construction Rooms Primarily Upscale & Upper Midscale
26.4
20.7
11.1
6.8
4.7
3.3
1.0
Luxury
Upper
Upscale
Upscale
Upper
Midscale
Midscale
Economy
Unaffiliated
*US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, Mar 2013
Hotel Development Almanac
Price vs. Cost by Property Class
2012 Hotel Development Index
$500
$450
N/A
Price/Key
Cost/Key
$400
Thousands
$350
.71
$300
$250
1.06
$200
.93
$150
$100
.49
.67
Midscale
Economy
$50
$0
Luxury
Upper
Upscale
Upscale
Upper
Midscale
Total United States
Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year)
2013-2014
Outlook
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
Supply
1.0%
1.5%
Demand
1.8%
2.8%
Occupancy
0.8%
1.3%
ADR
4.9%
4.6%
RevPAR
5.7%
6.0%
Total United States
Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook
2013F by Chain Scale
2013 Year End Outlook
Occupancy
(% chg)
2.3%
-0.1%
1.4%
0.5%
ADR
(% chg)
6.6%
4.5%
5.5%
4.8%
RevPAR
(%chg)
9.0%
4.3%
7.0%
5.3%
Midscale
Economy
0.7%
1.1%
2.4%
3.3%
3.2%
4.4%
Independent
Total United States
0.5%
4.8%
5.2%
0.8%
4.9%
5.7%
Chain Scale
Luxury
Upper Upscale
Upscale
Upper Midscale