Transcript Slide 1

Economic Projection for 2015
Projection
(% YoY)
2013
2014
GDP (at current prices: Bil. USD)
420.1
404.8
410.7
6293.0
6041.1
6108.3
GDP Growth (CVM, %)
2.8
0.9
3.0-4.0
Investment (CVM, %)
-0.8
-2.6
6.2
Private Consumption (CVM, %)
0.8
0.6
2.3
Public Consumption (CVM, %)
4.7
1.7
3.8
Export volume of goods & services (%)
2.8
0.0
3.7
225.4
224.8
225.2
1.4
-5.4
3.4
218.7
200.2
198.6
Trade balance (Bil. USD)
6.7
24.6
26.6
Current account balance (Bil. USD)
-3.9
13.1
16.0
Current account to GDP (%)
-0.8
3.3
3.9
Inflation (%) - CPI
2.2
1.9
(-0.3)-0.7
GDP per capita (USD per year)
Export value of goods (Bil. USD)
Import volume of goods & services (%)
Import value of goods (Bil. USD)
Source: NESDB as of May 18, 2015
2015
Economic Projections
2013
2015f
2014
Avg.
Range
Real GDP
2.9
0.7
3.7
3.2 – 4.2
Export: goods & services (% y-o-y)
4.2
0.0
5.1
4.1 – 6.1
Import: goods & services (% y-o-y)
2.3
-4.8
5.3
4.3 – 6.3
Current account (billion US dollar)
% of GDP
-2.5
-0.7
13.1
3.8
17.8
4.6
9.3 – 26.3
2.3 – 6.7
Inflation (% y-o-y)
2.2
1.9
0.2
-0.3 to 0.7
Core inflation (% y-o-y)
1.0
1.6
1.3
0.8 – 1.8
Unemployment (% pop.)
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7 – 0.9
Source: Fiscal Policy Office, as of Apr 30, 2015
Thailand’s Fast Facts
Thai population
67 million (2011)
Thailand’s GDP
US$373.6 billion (2014)
US$5,445 per capita GDP
Agriculture: 12%
Thai GDP by sector
Industry: 45%
Services: 43%
Thai labor force
38.58 million (2014)
Thai exports
US$224.8 billion (2014)
Thai imports
US$200.2 billion (2014)
Source: NESDB as of Mar 2, 2015, Pocket World in Figures 2015 Edition, and Bank of Thailand
Major Export Market Share
2014 Exports: Bt7.32 trillion
Others
43.5%
Asean
26.1%
Japan
9.6%
US
EU(27)
10.5%
10.3%
Source: www.moc.go.th as of 3 Feb 2015
Thailand’s Imports and Exports, 2004-2015 (Jan-Apr)
(Bt Billion)
8,000
Imports
Exports
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(JanApr)
Source: www.moc.go.th as of May 29, 2015
Major Export Partners
between 2012 and 2015 (Jan-Apr)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2014
(Jan-Apr) (Jan-Apr)
Unit: Bt Billion
Growth
(%)
U.S.A.
703.9
694.3
767.9
236.7
252.8
6.81
CHINA
829.8
824.7
806.4
270.5
241.9
-10.57
JAPAN
725.0
671.8
701.5
235.8
218.5
-7.35
HONG KONG
405.0
399.5
405.3
133.5
122.8
-8.00
MALAYSIA
383.7
393.6
410.3
134.5
111.9
-16.80
OTHERS
4,035.0
3,925.9
4,223.3
1,353.3
1,333.1
-1.49
Total
7,082.5
6,909.7
7,314.7
2,364.2
2,281.0
-3.52
Source: www.moc.go.th as of May 29, 2015
Top 10 Exports in 2012 – 2015 (Jan-Apr)
Unit: Bt Billion
2012
2013
2014
2014
(Q1)
2015
(Q1)
Growth
(yoy)
Motor cars, parts and accessories
Automatic data processing
machines and parts thereof
Precious stones and jewellery
Polymers of ethylene, propylene,
etc in primary forms
Refine fuels
707.71
738.11 789.23
256.66
273.91
6.72
588.40
537.05 588.61
185.28
185.22
-0.03
408.04
305.84 324.15
117.41
113.18
-3.61
263.59
270.79 311.42
104.42
89.35
-14.42
397.86
386.00 363.26
107.84
81.67
-24.27
Electronic integrated circuits
206.46
218.09 241.07
71.19
77.25
8.51
Rubber products
259.77
257.20 257.34
84.82
75.99
-10.41
Chemical products
263.03
274.94 276.71
93.47
72.60
-22.33
Machinery and parts thereof
192.68
205.04 231.53
76.28
71.53
-6.24
Iron and steel and their products
217.43
191.40 168.31
53.31
59.35
11.33
Others
3,577.52 3,525.27 3,763.05 1,213.54 1,180.91
-2.69
Total
7,082.49 6,909.74 7,314.70 2,364.24 2,280.95
-3.52
Source: www.moc.go.th as of May 29, 2015
Major Import Partners between 2012 and 2015
(Jan-Apr)
Unit: Bt Billion
2014
(Jan-Apr)
2015
(Jan-Apr)
Growth
(yoy)
2012
2013
2014
CHINA
1,160.4
1,155.3
1,251.5
383.0
426.6
11.39
JAPAN
1,523.5
1,256.0
1,161.1
386.0
365.8
-5.23
U.S.A.
391.4
447.5
474.1
150.4
155.8
3.61
MALAYSIA
409.6
406.6
414.5
139.5
133.6
-4.21
U. ARAB
EMIRATES
489.7
532.4
413.3
145.1
96.4
-33.58
OTHERS
3,811.5
3,859.6
3,696.0
1,220.1
1,100.2
-9.83
TOTAL
7,786.1
7,657.3
7,410.5
2,424.1
2,278.5
-6.01
Source: www.moc.go.th as of May 29, 2015
Top 10 Imports in 2012 – 2015 (Jan-Apr)
Unit: Bt Billion
2014
2015
Growth
2012
2013
2014
(Jan(Jan(yoy)
Apr)
Apr)
1,120.5 1,203.8 1,079.6
388.5
221.9 -42.90
Crude oil
Machinery and parts
809.8
709.4
695.1
235.1
216.2
-8.05
Electrical machinery and parts
521.5
464.2
497.1
160.4
161.7
0.76
Chemicals
461.9
439.8
472.3
157.1
153.7
-2.15
Iron, steel and products
Jewellery including silver bars
and gold
Electronic integrated circuites
474.2
425.1
416.1
131.7
124.0
-5.82
492.4
543.5
287.8
77.2
107.2
38.80
286.8
282.0
315.0
97.9
106.6
8.98
Parts and accessories of vehicles
393.2
363.9
294.7
100.3
98.7
-1.51
Other metal ores, metal waste
scrap, and products
254.2
245.7
255.8
81.7
82.2
0.70
Computers, parts and accessories
292.6
260.0
257.0
82.4
82.2
-0.28
2,679.0 2,719.9 2,840.1
911.8
924.1
7,786.1 7,657.3 7,410.5 2,424.1 2,278.5
1.34
-6.01
Others
Total
Source: www.moc.go.th as of May 29, 2015
Thailand’s FDI inflow from 1970 - 2013
US$ Million
Source: World Investment Report 2014, UNCTAD as of June 2014