Transcript City of Colorado Springs

Garfield County
Land Values and Solutions Study
BBC Research & Consulting
3773 Cherry Creek North Drive, # 850
Denver, Colorado 80209
800-748-3222
www.bbcresearch.com
January 5, 2006
Committee Meeting
Land Values and
Solutions Project Objectives
Identify Land Value Determinants

Explain factors determining county residential
land values

Document changes over time in county
residential land values

Explore impact of gas well and other significant
development on residential land values
Solutions

Document and recommend potential impact
mitigation strategies & best practices

Support/Communicate/Educate
1
Land Value Analysis Process


Gathered and analyzed land valuation data including:

property characteristics

location

geographic characteristics

current market value (Assessor’s data)

actual sales values

well locations and completion dates (COGCC data)
Analyses included value trends, comparisons
as well as multivariate statistical modeling
2
Results: Values By Parcel Size (2003-2005)
Land value varies greatly over different parcel sizes
$300,000
Valid Observations:
$250,000
$248,000
Roaring Fork Valley = 192
CO River Valley River= 129
Value per acre
$200,000
CO River Valley West=
70
$150,000
$100,000
$66,000
$50,000
$23,000
$15,000
$4,300
$2,400
20 to 40
Over 40
$0
Less than 1
1 to 5
5 to 10
10 to 20
Parcel Size (acres)
3
Results: Values Over Time
and Location—Small Parcels
Values for small parcels have grown in all areas of the county, remain
highest in Roaring Fork Valley (1 to 5 acre parcels)
$100
Roaring Fork
$90
CO East
CO West
$80
Price per acre ($ in thousands)
$93
645
$70
$71
Valid Observations
$60
$52
$49
$48
$50
$48
$44
$39 $39
$40
$36
$33
$30
$20
$20
$13
$10
$26
$25
$20
$15
$8
$0
1987-1990
1991-1993
1994-1996
1997-1999
Timeframe
2000-2002
2003-2005
4
Results: Values Over Time
and Location—Large Parcels
Values for large parcels show similar trends, but lower values per
acre (20-40 acre parcels)
$10.0
Roaring Fork
$9.0
CO East
Price per acre ($ in thousands)
$8.0
CO West
$8.0
$7.0
$6.5
415
$6.0
Valid Observations
$5.0
$4.0
$3.0
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$2.0
$2.2
$2.0
$1.7
$1.6
$1.2
$1.0
$4.2
$4.0
$1.2 $1.2
$0.6 $0.6
$0.7
$0.9
$0.0
1987
1991
1994
1997
Timeframe
2000
2003
5
Statistical Property Value Model
Effect on 2005 Sale Price for
20 Acre Parcel with 1,900 Square Foot Home
Parcel size (acres)
• Approx. $5,000 per acre, more for
smaller and less for larger parcels
Residential square footage
• Approx $100 per square foot
Date of sale
• Varies — 8% average annual
appreciation over last 10 years
Condominium/duplex (yes/no)
• 10% reduction in value
Water features on property
15% increase in value
Distance from Pitkin County
• Value decreases by about 0.5% per mile
View of Sopris
• Value increases by about 20-25%
Non-septic Wastewater System
• Value increases by about 10%
6
Statistical Property Value Model
Base model demonstration
7
Challenges

Wide variation in property characteristics
and location

Value effects across two dimensions — characteristics
and time

Land value per acre is non-linear

Difficult to measure some key factors

Date of gas well completion known —
drilling period uncertain

All data sets have some inaccuracies
8
Limitations

The statistical model is only a model

Estimated effects are averages across all properties sold
since 1987

Results primarily indicate direction and magnitude of
value influences
9
Conclusions

Influences on property values we can quantify (at least
approximately):




location
parcel size
infrastructure
appreciation (over time)

Land values increase dramatically with subdivision
and development

Overall property values west of Glenwood have increased
with recent energy boom
10