Transcript Masters Leadership Program

The Changing Population of
Texas
BP Business Leaders
November 8, 2012
Austin, TX
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000
Population*
United States
2010
Population*
Numerical
Change
2000-2010
Percent
Change
2000-2010
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7%
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6%
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0%
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6%
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3%
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5%
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
1,261,385
24.6%
65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth
of the Hispanic population
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
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Total Population and Components of
Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011
Percent Change
Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change
--
Percent
Change
--
Natural
Increase
--
Net
Migration
1950
7,711,194
--
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
24.2
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
16.9
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
27.1
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
19.9
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
22.8
49.65
50.35
2009
24,782,302
3,930,484
18.8
54.04
45.33
2010
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
2011
25,674,681
529,120
2.1
54.79
44.99
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as
estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
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Components of population
change, Texas, 1950-2009
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
Net Migration
1,500,000
Natural Increase
1,000,000
500,000
-
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Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000
to 2009
250,000
International
State-to-State
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000 to 2001 to 2002 to 2003 to 2004 to 2005 to 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates
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Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by
county as a percentage of 2000 population
Legend
-20 to -45%
-19 to -10%
-9 to -5%
-4 to 0%
1 to 5 %
6 to 20%
21 to 30%
31 to 65%
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center
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Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by
county as a percentage of 2000 population
Legend
0-1%
1-2.5%
2.5-3.5%
3.5-5%
5-10%
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center
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http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
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Texas Shale Plays
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http://www.forbes.com
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States with Largest Estimated
Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010
State
Estimate
(thousands)
Range
California
2,550
(2,350 - 2,750)
Texas
1,650
(1,450 - 1,850)
Florida
825
(725 - 950)
New York
625
(525 - 725)
New Jersey
550
(425 - 650)
Illinois
525
(425 - 625)
Georgia
425
(300 - 550)
Arizona
400
(275 - 500)
Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).
6.5% of
Texas’ 2010
Population
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0
Age
Under 1 year
4 years
8 years
12 years
16 years
20 years
24 years
28 years
32 years
36 years
40 years
44 years
48 years
52 years
56 years
60 years
64 years
68 years
72 years
76 years
80 years
84 years
88 years
92 years
96 years
100 to 104…
Population
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and
Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
250000
White (non-Hispanic)
200000
Hispanic
150000
100000
50000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
White M
Hispanic M
Black M
Asian M
Other M
White F
Hispanic F
Black F
Asian F
Other F
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000 150,000 100,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
15
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
White Male
White Female
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
16
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Hispanic M
Hispanic F
Black M
Black F
Asian M
Asian F
Other M
Other F
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
17
200,000
Legend
co48_d00
Total Population by County, 2010
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10
82 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,001
100,001 - 500,001
500,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 - 4,100,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census
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Legend
Change of the Total Population by County,
2000 to 2010
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
-3,200 - 0
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census
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Water
Percent Change of Total Population in Texas
Counties, 2000-2010
'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010
-20%-0%
1%-10%
10.1-25%
25.1%-50%
50.1%-82%
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010
'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
Population increase for
-3 Texas
to -0.5
was 20.6%
during this period
-0.49 to -.001
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census
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Median Household Income by County,
2006-2008
$18,000-30,000
$ 30,000-35,000
$ 35,000-40,000
$40,000-50,000
$ 50,000-76,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-Year Sample 2006-2008
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Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
Migration Scenarios
60,000,000
Zero
55,000,000
.5 of 2000-2010
50,000,000
2000-2010
45,000,000
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
2010
2015
2020
2025
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
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Projected Population Change, Texas
tl_2010_48_county10
Counties, 2010-2050
Legend
F6
-6,200 - 0
1 - 2,000
2,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 -3,480,000
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Projected
Percent
Population
Legend
Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
tl_2010_48_county10
F5
LT 0%
0-40%
41-100%
101-250%
251-500%
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Educational Attainment in Texas, 2010
Percent of
Level of Educational persons aged
Attainment
25 years and State Ranking
older
High school diploma
or equivalency
or greater
Bachelors or greater
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010.
80.7%
25.9%
49/50 (tied
with CA)
31
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Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational
Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Percent
35
30.1
29
28.7
28.7
30
23.9
25
18.8
18.2
20
12.9
15
10
5.3
4.4
5
0
No High
School Diploma
High School
Graduate
Some
College
2000
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/Prof.
Degree
Demographics and Destiny
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Contact
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
Email: [email protected]
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us
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