Transcript osd.state.tx.us

Texas Demographic Characteristics
and Trends
Texas State
University School
Relations Retreat
December 17, 2012
San Marcos, Texas
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000
Population*
United States
2010
Population*
Numerical
Change
2000-2010
Percent
Change
2000-2010
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7%
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6%
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0%
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6%
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3%
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5%
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
1,261,385
24.6%
65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth
of the Hispanic population
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
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Total Population and Components of
Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011
Percent Change
Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change
--
Percent
Change
--
Natural
Increase
--
Net
Migration
1950
7,711,194
--
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
24.2
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
16.9
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
27.1
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
19.9
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
22.8
49.65
50.35
2010
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
54.94
45.06
2011
25,674,681
529,120
2.1
54.91
44.99
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the
U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
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Legend
co48_d00
Total Population by County, 2010
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10
82 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,001
100,001 - 500,001
500,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 - 4,100,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census
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Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to
2010
Legend
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
-3,200 - 0
79 counties lost
population over the
decade
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
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Percent Change of Total Population in Texas
Counties, 2000-2010
Water
'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010
-20%-0%
1%-10%
10.1-25%
25.1%-50%
50.1%-82%
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010
'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
-3 to -0.5
-0.49 to -.001
0
.001 to .5
.51-2.1 for
Population increase
Texas was 20.6%
during this period
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census
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The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas
from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
Percent
Increase
1.
Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Wash.
4.3
2.
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos,
Texas
3.9
3.
Hinesville-Fort Stewart, Ga.
3.4
4.
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
3.0
5.
Raleigh-Cary, N.C.
2.9
6.
Warner Robins, Ga.
2.9
7.
Provo-Orem, Utah
2.7
8.
Charleston-North CharlestonSummerville, S.C.
2.6
9.
Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle BeachConway, S.C.
2.6
10. Yuma, Ariz.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
2.6
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The 10 Metro Areas with the Largest Numeric
Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
1.
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
Numeric
Increase
154,774
2.
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas
139,699
3.
4.
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.W.Va.
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.N.J.-Pa.
121,911
118,791
5.
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif.
115,964
6.
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.
105,490
7.
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga.
90,345
8.
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.
80,146
9.
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz.
70,349
10.
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas
67,230
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
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The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric
Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
Numeric
Increase
1.
Harris, Texas
88,452
2.
Los Angeles, Calif.
70,451
3.
Maricopa, Ariz.
63,127
4.
Miami-Dade, Fla.
58,331
5.
Riverside, Calif.
49,979
6.
Dallas, Texas
47,875
7.
Orange, Calif.
45,513
8.
San Diego, Calif.
44,756
9.
Bexar, Texas
41,376
10.
Tarrant, Texas
40,776
Texas contains eight of the 25 counties with the highest numerical gains
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
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Job Growth
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Estimated domestic migration by
Legend
county, 2000-2010
tl_2010_48_county10
Compoch$.domig
-280,000 to --3,000
-2999 to 0
1- 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,000 - 220,000
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, 2012. Map produced by the
Texas State Data Center
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Legend Estimated international migration by county, 2000-2010
tl_2010_48_county10
Compoch$.inmig
-1,400 to 0
1 to 500
501 to 2,500
2,501 to 50,000
50,000 to 280,000
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced
by the Texas State Data Center
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http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
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http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
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Percent of Migrants to Texas between
2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity
52% of all migrants were
international
100%
5%
90%
80%
23%
18%
12%
8%
15%
70%
60%
67% of all
migrants
28%
50%
50%
40%
40%
Other
30%
Black
20%
10%
44%
24%
33%
Hispanic
White
0%
Net domestic
International
migration
migration
(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)
Total
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international
migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1,
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2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
2000 and 2010
2000
2010
Hispanic
or Latino
32%
Hispanic
or Latino
38%
NH
White
53%
NH
Other
4% NH Black
11%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
NH
Other
6%
NH
White
45%
NH Black
11%
0
Age
Under 1 year
4 years
8 years
12 years
16 years
20 years
24 years
28 years
32 years
36 years
40 years
44 years
48 years
52 years
56 years
60 years
64 years
68 years
72 years
76 years
80 years
84 years
88 years
92 years
96 years
100 to 104…
Population
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and
Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
250000
200000
White (non-Hispanic)
150000
Hispanic
100000
50000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
NH White Male
NH White Female
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
18
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Hispanic Male
Hispanic Female
NH Black Male
NH Black Female
NH Asian Male
NH Asian Female
NH Other Male
NH Other Female
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
19
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
NH White Male
Hispanic Male
NH Black Male
NH Asian Male
NH Other Male
NH White Female
Hispanic Female
NH Black Female
NH Asian Female
NH Other Female
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
20
200,000
Percent of the population 5 and over who speak
English less than very well by state, 2009
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: American Community Survey, 2009
Percent of the population 5 and over who speak
Spanish at home, 2009
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: American Community Survey, 2009
Percent of population that is foreign born, 2005-2009
Percent Foreign Born
0-5%
5-10%
10-15%
15-25%
25-35%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Percent of the population 5 and over who speak
at home,
Percent agedSpanish
5 years
plus2005-2009
who speak Spanish at
0-10%
10-25%
25-50%
50-75%
75-96%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Number of Linguistically Isolated Households, by County,
2005-2009
Pct of LI HH Spanish
Dallam Sherman
OchiltreeLipscomb
Hansford
Hutchinson
Hartley
Moore
RobertsHemphill
LingIsoHH
0
Oldham
Potter Carson Gray Wheeler
Deaf Smith Randall
DonleyCollingsworth
Armstrong
1-5000
Parmer Castro SwisherBriscoe Hall Childress
5001-30,000
Hardeman
Bailey Lamb
30,001-100,000
Hudspeth
Wilbarger
Wichita
Foard
CochranHockley
Crosby Dickens King
Lubbock
Knox Baylor Archer
Clay
LamarRed River
MontagueCooke Grayson Fannin
Bowie
Delta
Titus
Wise
Denton
Collin
Hopkins
Garza Kent
Young
Hunt
Haskell
Morris Cass
Franklin
Stonewall
Throckmorton
Rockwall Rains
Wood Upshur Marion
Parker Tarrant Dallas
Gaines DawsonBorden Scurry Fisher Jones
Stephens
Palo Pinto
Kaufman Van Zandt
GreggHarrison
Shackelford
Smith
HoodJohnson
Ellis
Eastland
Andrews Martin Howard
Nolan
Taylor
Panola
Henderson
Mitchell
ErathSomervell
Callahan
Rusk
Navarro
Hill
Glasscock
Comanche
Shelby
Bosque
Loving Winkler Ector Midland
AndersonCherokee
Sterling Coke RunnelsColemanBrown
Freestone
Nacogdoches
Hamilton
Limestone
McLennan
Ward
Culberson
Mills
San AugustineSabine
Crane
Coryell
Tom Green
Upton Reagan
Angelina
Leon Houston
Reeves
Irion
Falls
Concho
Lampasas
Trinity
San
Saba
McCulloch
RobertsonMadison
Bell
Schleicher Menard
Polk Tyler JasperNewton
Burnet
Milam
Walker
Pecos
Jeff Davis
Brazos
Crockett
Mason Llano
Williamson
Grimes San Jacinto
Burleson
Kimble
Sutton
Hardin
Montgomery
Travis
Lee
Gillespie Blanco
Washington
Orange
Terrell
Bastrop
Liberty
Waller
Presidio
Hays
Kerr
Jefferson
Edwards
Austin
Kendall
Harris
Fayette
Val Verde
Chambers
Real
Comal Caldwell
Brewster
Bandera
Colorado
Galveston
Guadalupe
Fort Bend
Gonzales Lavaca
Bexar
Galveston
Kinney Uvalde Medina
Wharton
Brazoria
Wilson
DeWitt
JacksonMatagorda
Frio Atascosa Karnes
Zavala
Victoria
Maverick
Calhoun
Goliad
Calhoun
McMullen
Calhoun
Bee
Dimmit
Live Oak
RefugioCalhoun
La Salle
Aransas
San Patricio Aransas
100,001-180,000
El Paso
Floyd Motley Cottle
Hale
Yoakum Terry
Jack
Lynn
Webb
Jim Wells
Nueces Nueces
Duval
KlebergKleberg
Brooks Kenedy
Zapata
Jim Hogg
Kenedy
WillacyWillacy
Starr
Hidalgo
Cameron
Cameron
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
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Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009
$18,000-30,000
$ 30,000-35,000
$ 35,000-40,000
$40,000-50,000
$ 50,000-76,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Percent of population aged 25 years and older
with high school or equivalent degree or higher
2005-2009
Percent 25+ with High School Degree
45-55%
55-65%
65-75%
75-85%
85-98%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Percent of population aged 25 years and older
with Bachelors degree or higher. 2005-2009
Percent 25 + with Bachelors
6-15%
15-20%
20-25%
25-35%
35-50%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011
Level of Educational
Attainment
High school diploma or
equivalency or greater
Bachelors or greater
Percent of
persons aged
25 years and
older
81.1%
26.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.
State
Ranking
48/49/50
(tied with CA
and MS)
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Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the
Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, 2009
3%
9%
19%
15%
6%
8%
67%
71%
Less Than High School
College and Greater
Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer. 30
Percent of student’s
enrolling in second year
One Year Persistence Rate of First-Time Entering Undergraduates
by Parent's Educational Level Public University in Texas, 2010
94%
92%
90%
88%
86%
84%
82%
80%
78%
76%
74%
92.9%
91.7%
86.3%
87.2%
85.1%
81.3%
Parent’s
educational
attainment
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
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Projected Percent of Labor Force by Education
Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
35.0
30.1
30.0
29.0 28.7
28.7
23.9
Percent
25.0
20.0
18.8
18.2
15.0
12.9
10.0
5.3
5.0
4.4
0.0
No High School Diploma High School Graduate
Some College
2000
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.
2040
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate/Professional
Degree
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
Migration Scenarios
60,000,000
Zero
55,000,000
.5 of 2000-2010
50,000,000
2000-2010
45,000,000
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
2010
2015
2020
2025
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
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Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
NH-White
NH-Black
Hispanic
NH-Other
5,000,000
0
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Projected Population Change, Texas
tl_2010_48_county10
Counties, 2010-2050
Legend
F6
-6,200 - 0
1 - 2,000
2,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 -3,480,000
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Projected
Percent
Population
Legend
Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
tl_2010_48_county10
F5
LT 0%
0-40%
41-100%
101-250%
251-500%
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Texas P0pulation Pyramid, 2010 and 2050
Male
Female
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
05-09
Under 5
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 and Texas State Data Center 2012. .o5 Migration Scenario
500,000
1,000,000
37
1,500,000
Demographics and Destiny
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Contact
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
Email: [email protected]
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us
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