Transcript osd.state.tx.us

Texas Demographic Characteristics
and Trends and Education
Region 13 Education
Service Center
December 11, 2013
Austin, Texas
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000
Population*
United States
2010
Population*
Numerical
Change
2000-2010
Percent
Change
2000-2010
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7%
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6%
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0%
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6%
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3%
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5%
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
1,261,385
24.6%
65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth
of the Hispanic population
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
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Total Population and Components of
Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012
Percent Change
Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change
--
Percent
Change
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
--
--
--
1950
7,711,194
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
24.2
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
16.9
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
27.1
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
19.9
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
22.8
49.65
50.35
2010
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
54.94
45.06
2012
26,059,203
913,642
3.6
52.05
47.95
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the
U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
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Legend
Total Estimated Population by County, 2012
POPESTIMATE2012
71-10,000
10,001-50,000
50,001-100,000
100,001-500,000
500,001-1,000,000
1,000,001-4,253,700
Along and east of I-35:
40% of land
86% of population
92% of population growth (2011-2012)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates
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Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to
2010
Legend
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
-3,200 - 0
79 counties lost
population over the
decade
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
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Legend
Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012
tl_2010_48_county10
popchg4201072012
LT 0
1-1,000
1,001-20,000
96 counties lost
population over the
two year period
20,001-80,000
80,001-161,252
Of counties that lost population
90% had net out migration
47% had natural decline
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.
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The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas
Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
Percent
Increase
1.
Midland, Texas
4.6
2.
Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky.
3.7
3.
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla.
3.6
4.
The Villages, Fla.
3.4
5.
Odessa, Texas
3.4
6.
Jacksonville, N.C.
3.3
7.
Austin-Round Rock, Texas
3.0
8.
Casper, Wyo.
3.0
9.
Columbus, Ga.-Ala.
2.9
10.
Manhattan, Kan.
2.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
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The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric
Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
Numeric
Increase
1.
Harris, Texas
80,005
2.
Los Angeles, Calif.
73,764
3.
Maricopa, Ariz.
73,644
4.
Dallas, Texas
45,827
5.
San Diego, Calif.
38,880
6.
King, Wash.
35,838
7.
Travis, Texas
34,381
8.
Orange, Calif.
34,017
9.
Tarrant, Texas
32,997
10.
Clark, Nev.
32,833
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013
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Estimated domestic migration by
Legend
county, 2000-2010
tl_2010_48_county10
Compoch$.domig
-280,000 to --3,000
-2999 to 0
1- 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,000 - 220,000
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, 2012. Map produced by the
Texas State Data Center
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Legend Estimated international migration by county, 2000-2010
tl_2010_48_county10
Compoch$.inmig
-1,400 to 0
1 to 500
501 to 2,500
2,501 to 50,000
50,000 to 280,000
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced
by the Texas State Data Center
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Eagle Ford Shale Oil, Gas, and Drilling
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0
Age
Under 1 year
4 years
8 years
12 years
16 years
20 years
24 years
28 years
32 years
36 years
40 years
44 years
48 years
52 years
56 years
60 years
64 years
68 years
72 years
76 years
80 years
84 years
88 years
92 years
96 years
100 to 104…
Population
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and
Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
250000
200000
White (non-Hispanic)
150000
Hispanic
100000
50000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
NH White Male
NH Black Male
NH Asian Male
NH Other Male
NH White Female
NH Black Female
NH Asian Female
NH Other Female
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
15
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Hispanic Male
Hispanic Female
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
16
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
NH White Male
Hispanic Male
NH Black Male
NH Asian Male
NH Other Male
NH White Female
Hispanic Female
NH Black Female
NH Asian Female
NH Other Female
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
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200,000
Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011
Level of Educational
Attainment
High school diploma or
equivalency or greater
Bachelors or greater
Percent of
persons aged
25 years and
older
81.1%
26.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.
State
Ranking
48/49/50
(tied with CA
and MS)
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Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the
Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, 2009
3%
9%
19%
15%
6%
8%
67%
71%
Less Than High School
College and Greater
Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer. 19
Percent of persons aged 25 years and older with a
high school degree or higher, Texas, 2006-2011
81.5%
81.1%
81.0%
80.7%
80.5%
79.9%
80.0%
79.6%
79.5%
79.0%
79.1%
78.6%
78.5%
78.0%
77.5%
77.0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
DRAFT for COMMENT - Please DO
NOT DISTRIBUTE
2010
2011
Trends in Educational Attainment in Texas by
Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above
100%
95%
y = 0.0028x + 0.9032
90%
y = 0.0025x + 0.8668
85%
y = 0.0041x + 0.834
White
80%
Black
75%
Hispanic
70%
Other
y = 0.0093x + 0.548
65%
60%
55%
50%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
DRAFT for COMMENT - Please DO
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. ACS 1-Yr PUMS 2001 to 2010
NOT DISTRIBUTE
2009
2010
2011
Percent of Population with High School Degrees or Higher
2010 and 2030
87.3%
88%
86%
81.9%
84%
82%
77.9%
ACS 2010
Const 1.0
80%
Trend 1.0
78%
76%
74%
72%
2010-2030
Navarro
Hill
Comanche
Bosque
Coleman
Median Household Income, Region 13
Census Tracts, 2009-2011
Brown
Hamilton
Limestone
McLennan
Mills
Coryell
Falls
McCulloch
Lampasas
San Saba
Bell
Robertson
Legend
Median HH Income $
Burnet
Mason
Median HH Income $
Milam
Llano
Williamson
Brazos
Burleson
4,500 - 40,000
40,001 - 60,000
60,001 - 90,000
Travis
Gillespie
90,001 - 120,000
Lee
Blanco
Washington
120,001 - 250,000
Bastrop
Hays
Austin
Kerr
Kendall
Fayette
Caldwell
Comal
Bandera
Colorado
Guadalupe
Bexar
Gonzales
Lavaca
Medina
Wharton
Wilson
DeWitt
Source: U..S Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year Sample, 2009-2011
Jackson
23
Navarro
Hill
Comanche
Bosque
Coleman
Percent who speak a language other than English at home, ages
5 and older, Region 13 Census Tracts, 2009-2011
Brown
Hamilton
Limestone
McLennan
Mills
Coryell
Falls
McCulloch
Legend
Lampasas
San Saba
ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS
Bell
Robertson
Percent Language Other than English at Home
0-10%
10.1-20%
Burnet
Mason
Milam
Llano
20.1-30%
30.1-50%
Williamson
Brazos
50.1-100%
Burleson
Travis
Gillespie
Lee
Blanco
Washington
Bastrop
Hays
Austin
Kerr
Kendall
Fayette
Caldwell
Comal
Bandera
Colorado
Guadalupe
Bexar
Gonzales
Lavaca
Medina
Wharton
Wilson
24
DeWitt
Source: U..S Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year Sample, 2009-2011
Jackson
Navarro
Hill
Comanche
Bosque
Coleman
Brown
Percent with high school or higher degree, ages 25 and older,
Region 13 Census Tracts, 2009-2011
Hamilton
Limestone
McLennan
Mills
Coryell
Falls
McCulloch
Lampasas
San Saba
Bell
Robertson
Burnet
Mason
ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_T
Milam
Llano
Williamson
Legend
Brazos
Burleson
Pct HS and Greater
65% and less
65.1-75%
Travis
Gillespie
Lee
75.1-85%
Blanco
Washington
TRACT_48_TEXAS
ater
85.1-95%
Bastrop
Hays
Austin
Kerr
95.1-100%
Kendall
s
Fayette
Caldwell
Comal
Bandera
Colorado
Guadalupe
Bexar
Gonzales
Lavaca
Medina
Wharton
Wilson
DeWitt
Jackson
Source: U..S Census Bureau, American Community Survey,
5-year Sample, 2009-2011
Karnes
Atascosa
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Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
Migration Scenarios
60,000,000
Zero
55,000,000
.5 of 2000-2010
50,000,000
2000-2010
45,000,000
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
2010
2015
2020
2025
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
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Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
NH-White
NH-Black
Hispanic
NH-Other
5,000,000
0
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Projected Population Change, Texas
tl_2010_48_county10
Counties, 2010-2050
Legend
F6
-6,200 - 0
1 - 2,000
2,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 -3,480,000
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Projected
Percent
Population
Legend
Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
tl_2010_48_county10
F5
LT 0%
0-40%
41-100%
101-250%
251-500%
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Teen Birth Rate by State, 2010
Rank
State
7
Mississippi
New Mexico
Arkansas
Texas
Oklahoma
Louisiana
Kentucky
8
District of Columbia
9
West Virginia
Alabama
1
2
3
4
5
6
10
Birth rate per 1,000
women ages 15-19
Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
55
52.9
52.5
52.2
50.4
47.7
46.2
45.4
44.8
43.6
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Of all births to females under 20 years of age,
percent by race/ethnicity, 2011
Mother's
race/ethnicity1
Non-Hispanic
white
Texas
United States
21%
39%
Non-Hispanic black
14%
24%
American Indian or
Alaska Native2,3
0%
2%
1%
2%
64%
33%
Asian or Pacific
Islander2,3
Hispanic4
1 Includes all births, including those with Hispanic origin not stated and not shown separately.
2 Race and Hispanic origin are reported separately on birth certificates. Persons of Hispanic origin
may be of any race. Race categories are consistent with the 1977 Office of Management and
Budget (OMB) standards.
3 Includes persons of Hispanic origin according to mother’s reported race.
4 Includes all persons of Hispanic origin of any race.
http://www.hhs.gov/ash/oah/adolescent-health-topics/reproductive-health/states/tx.html
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Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by
Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040
Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections
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Demographics and Destiny
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Contact
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
Email: [email protected]
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us
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