Transcript The Myth of evidence based policy

The Myth of Evidence Based
Policy
Robin Davidson
SSA. York 2013
Thanks
• Staff of ALRUK.
• Particularly James Nicholls
• Willm Mistral
• Davidson, R (2013 ) Evidenced based alcohol
policy : not as simple as it sounds. In Mistral,
W (ed). Substance Misuse; Emerging
Perspectives. Wiley Blackwell. London
Definition of EBP
• Linear and direct selection, synthesis and
critical evaluation of best research evidence to
answer a policy problem and which can then
be implemented
Greenlagh and Russell (2009)
To begin with
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Evidence based practice?
Dearth of evidence?
Introverted scientists?
The sabotaging industry?
How to invent a new therapy
1. Start with an established psychological process of change
2. Add functionally trivial bells and whistles
3. Demonstrate using one RCT that the “new” treatment is statistically (P<
.05) better than no treatment or TAU
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Give “new” treatment a name and acronym
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Patent it
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Set up accreditation process and retire to the South of France.
Davidson (2008)
“The central goal of psychotherapy research should be to achieve an
understanding of the psychological mechanisms or processes of change
and not focus on brand name treatments”
In the last year…….
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Office of National Statistics
Health and Social Care Information Centre
Health Survey England
Chief Medical Officer
World Health Organisation
EU Alcohol Health Forum
OECD
Department of Health
Home Office
HMRC
Scottish Government
NHS Scotland / MESAS
British Beer and Pub Association
Institute of Fiscal Studies
Centre for Economic and Business Research
Scottish Health Action on Alcohol Problems
Alcohol Focus Scotland
Balance North East
Alcohol Research UK
AMPHORA
EUCAM
Eurocare
Institute of Alcohol Studies
Local Government Association
Greater London Authority
Alcohol Concern
University of Stirling / Alcohol Health Alliance
Ofcom
RAND Europe
The Adam Smith Institute
Demos
Mentor UK
The Statisticians Tale
Home Office Data Analyst.
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I could call up data that could prove anything I
wanted to. If I want to make a case that is really
good ....using proper data I can manipulate it to
make it look pretty. Similarly, if I wanted to place
pressure on the Home Office to support us with an
initiative I could put my hands on data that would do
just that. So numbers do whatever you want. ...
Don’t all partnerships do that.?
The Journalists Tale
A.A. Gill. Sun Times. May 24th 2009
There is an academic assumption that all
research is a good thing and that all
knowledge gleaned from research is of
equal importance as every shard in a
mosaic. This is of course empirical
bollocks. Most research is forgotten and
an awful lot is utterly pointless and has
more to do with the search for funding,
career building and hierarchies than it
does with uncovering and thereby
righting the world
Ducks in a row in 1997
• New Labour elected.
• Tony Blairs public commitment to “New Public
Management” and that “evidence based
solutions should drive policy”.
• David Blunket “information and knowledge at
the heart of policy making and delivery”.
• Gus O’Donnell appointed cabinet secretary
Maybe four reasons for the Myth
• The structure of government
• The psychology of decision makers
• The assumptions of “naïve rationalism”
• The spirit of the times
The structure of Government
• Departmental Pluralism resulting in conflicting
and multiple outcomes
• Short term, adversarial, ideological split yet
marketing pragmatists,
• Yes minister
• Career politicians, ambitious,
Cognitive dysfunction in politicians
• Primacy effect
• Confirmation bias (favour of evidence that
confirms beliefs)
• Belief perseverance (beliefs persist after
evidence for them has shown to be false)
And what about civil servants…………
Naïve rationalism
• What works trumps desirable ends and
appropriate means?
• Values - whose likely benefits worth whose
potential losses
• What about embodied knowledge (Praxis)
• There is no such thing as a body of evidence.
Rather competing constructions able to support
any position.
• Collective deliberation. policy is language,
argumentation, discourse and incremental
decision making
Spirit of the times
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Beerhouse act-1830
Industrial revolution- trading imperatives
mid 19thC -moral issues
Late Victorian-social reform
1915 – national industrial efficiency.
1960s - health
1990s – tourism
Now- youthful public disorder (MUP)
Not new-Aristotle
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Logos; the argument
Ethos; the speaker
Pathos; emotional
Coming from; understanding the audience.
Recent Schemes
• March 2013 What Works Evidence Centres
• Out of 70 programmes implemented by the DoE
2 were evaluated. Lead to the Education
Endowment Foundation.
• The Behavioural Insights Team
• Trial Design Advisory Panel – Ben Goldacre.
• Project Oracle leading to a standard of evidence
framework.
• Policy Skills Framework launched by the institute
for Government
The End
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