Transcript Energy Sources: The Emerging Technologies

Energy Sources: The Emerging Technologies
New & Renewable Energy
Technologies in Japan
November 11, 2004
Hideo Shindo
Chief Representative of Washington DC Office
New Energy and Industrial Technology Development
Organization (NEDO)
1
Principle of Japan’s Energy Policy: 3Es
Security of
Energy Supply
*The Basic Plan on Energy
endorsed by the Cabinet in
October 2003
Alternatives to oil
3Es
Harmony
with Environment
Lowering CO2 emission
Economic Efficiency
Market mechanism
→ Four Fundamental Measures
2
1.
2.
3.
4.
Promoting Energy Conservation Measures
Ensuring a Stable Supply of Oil
Development and introduction of Diverse Sources of Energy
Basing the Energy Market on Market Principles
Energy in Japan in Comparison to the World
Characteristics
Ratio of the Self-supply of Energy
in Major Countries (2000)
(％)
100
Fragile Energy Supply Structure
80
75.3
70.5
60
- Scarce domestic energy resources
- Low ratio of self-supply of energy compared
to other major countries
- High dependency on oil from the Middle East
44.6
36.5
40
20
19.7
0
Japan
U.S.A.
Fance
Germany
England
Source: IEA “Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2002”
Dependency on the Middle East for Oil and
Dependency on Oil in the World (2000-2001)
Primary Energy Supply and Its Ratio in Major Countries (2000)
（％）
Primary energy supply
(oil conversion: mtoe )
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear power
Hydropower
Recyclable energy, etc.
Japan
U.S.A.
525
18
51
12
16
1.4
2
2300
24
39
24
9
0.9
4
France Germany
257
6
34
14
42
2.2
2
340
24
39
21
13
0.6
3
UK
233
16
36
38
10
0.2
2
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
86%
Dependency on the
Middle East
Dependency on oil
48%
40%
39%
37% 37%
34%
26%
13%
5%
Japan
U.S.A.
France
Germany
England
Source: IEA “Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2002”
Source: BP Statistics 2002 and IEA, Oil and Gas Information (2002)
METI’s Major Energy-Related R&D Targets & Challenges
Categories
Major R&D targets
Challenges
Budget
(JFY04)
Nuclear Energy
-Safety of Nuclear Systems
1. Safety Assessment
2. Nuclear Cycle
3. Light-Water Reactors
-Disuse, MOX Reactors
JPY 40.5 B
New Energy
- 3% of Primary Energy Supply
in 2010
- Promotion of FCs & Hydrogen
#FCVs 50K(2010),5000K(2020)
-↓Cost, ↑Performance of
New Energy Eqpt. & Systems
1. Fuel Cells & Hydrogen
-FC: ↑Reliability, ↓Cost
-Hydrogen: ↑Safety, ↓Cost
-Demonstration of FCVs
2. PV :↑Cell Efficiency, ↓Cost
3.Biomass
-↑Conversion Efficiency to
Gas/Liquid Fuels, etc
JPY 149.3 B
Energy Efficiency &
Conservation
-↑Production Process Efficiency,
＜-57Bl Energy Efficiency in 2010
＞
1.Commercial & Residential
2.Transportation
3.Industry
4.Cross Sectors
JPY 92.4 B
Gas Energy
-15% of Primary Energy Supply
in 2010
1.↓Cost of GTL/DME Production
2.Development of Methane Hydrate
JPY 17.4 B
Oil and Coal Energy
-Clean Production & Utilization
1.Coal Gasification & FC Power
Production
2.Desulfurization Tech. of Gasoline
and Gas Oil
JPY 53.2 B
4
METI’s Energy R&D Expenditures (in
FY2004/5)
（Unit：million JPY）
5
FY 2004
FY
2005(req.)
New Energy R&D Program
60,900
58,100
Energy Efficiency and
Conservation R&D Program
49,300
51,900
Fossil Fuel R&D Program (Oil, Gas
&Coal)
37,000
39,300
Electric Power R&D Program
6,300
5,500
Nuclear Power R&D Program
12,500
13,500
Japan’s New and Renewable Energy Indicators
Supply Side
New Energy
Waste
1,250,000 kl
(1,110MW)
Biomass
48,000 kl
(71MW)
FY2010
Indicators
1,180,000 kl
(4,820 MW)
1,340,000 kl
(3,000 MW)
5,520,000 kl
(4,170 MW)
340,000 kl
(330 MW)
Solar
820,000 kl
4,390,000 kl
Waste
45,000 kl
140,000 kl
FY2001
Thermal Energy Utilization
Electric Power
Photovoltaic
Wind
Biomass
110,000 kl
(452MW)
127,000 kl
(312MW)
ー
Unused energy
44,000 kl
(incl. Snow-ice)
Black liquor and scrap
4,460,000 kl
wood, etc.
Total
(Share of total primary energy
supply)
6
Renewable Energy
6,900,000 kl
(1.2%)
FY2001
FY2010
Indicators
Total New Energy
7 million kl
19 million kl
Hydropower
21 million kl
20 million kl
Geothermal
1 million kl
1 million kl
Grand Total
29 million kl
(4.9%)
40 million kl
(approx. 7%)
(S hare of total primary energy
supply)
670,000 kl
580,000 kl
4,940,000 kl
19,100,000 kl
(approx. 3%)
Source : Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, METI
Cost Competitiveness of NRE
Power generation cost of new energy
Photovoltaic power
Wind power
Waste power
Residential
Nonresidential
SmallSmallLargeand
Largeand
scale medium- scale mediumscale
scale
46~66
73
9~14 18~24 9~11 11~12
Type
Power
generation
cost
(Unit: JPY/kWh)
Biomass
power
Small- and
mediumscale
hydropower
7~21
14
Source : Report by the New Energy Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee
on Energy and Natural Resources (July 2001), and others
(Unit: JPY/kWh)
Power generation cost by power source
7
Type
Nuclear power
LNG-fired
Coal-fired
Oil-fired
Power generation
cost
5.9
6.4
6.5
10.2
Source : Data of the 70th Nuclear Power Subcommittee of the Advisory
Committee for Energy (December 1999)
Creation of Initial Demand
Market
independence
Diffusion Difficulty Level
Creation of
initial demand
Technical
development
Cannot be sold without support
▪ High cost
▪ Competition with
existing products
▪ Construction of a total
energy system
▪ A lack of social awareness
Synergistic
effect of mass
production
and cost
reduction
This
period
この時期が重要
is important.
Development of
new products
：Market scale
8
Period of
market creation
Period of independence and expansion in the market
Period of market maturity
R&D
(with a view to commercialization)
( New Energy ) Compatible cost with existing energies
Development based on realistic / applicable conditions
( Energy Conservation ) Increasing energy efficiency of
Industry / &Commercial
Household / Transportation sectors
Trinity
Approach
Verification
Demonstration,
Overseas Verification

Verify developed technology in
all aspects
Penetration Support
Geological balance & recipient
characteristics to be considered
 Comprehensive support for
Industry /&Commercial
Household / Transportation
sectors

Contribution to realize “Long-term Energy Supply/Demand Outlook”
(2010)
9
NEDO’s Energy-Related Activities
NEDO R&D Expenditures (in FY2004)
（Unit：million JPY）
FY 2004
★
Electronics / Information Technology
18,500
Biotechnology / Medical Technology
18,000
Nanotechnology / Materials
16,700
Manufacturing / Aerospace/Avionics
22,600
Environment / Energy
57,700
Environment
FC & Hydrogen
New/Renewable Energy
Energy Efficiency & Conservation
10
7,900
19,300
22,300
8,200
Competitive Grants / Subsidies for
Private Companies
28,000
TOTAL NEDO R&D Expenditure
162,900
Issues and Measures for Implementation of New and
Renewable Energies
Categories
Issues
Measures
Higher cost compared
competitive energies
Output
Stability
Unstable output depending on natural
conditions with a possibility of
degradation of electricity quality
・Output stabilization technology
development for electricity grid
・Output stabilization technology
development for electricity generation
Energy
Efficiency
Lower energy conversion efficiency and
capacity factor compared to existing
energy systems
･Improvements in conversion efficiency and
capacity factor by technology development
11
to
other
・Cost reduction by technology
development
・Mass production by creating early
demand
・Financial support
Cost
Efficiency
International Comparisons — Installed PV Capacity
(Unit: MW)
800
637
600
400
277
212
200
39.1
0
12
Japan
Germany
U.S.A.
26.3
Australia Netherlands
Source : IEA / PVPS (As of the end of 2002)
22
Itary
19.5
Switzerland
17.2
France
16.2
Mexico
PV Power Generation Capacity in Japan
Cost of residential PV system
(Unit: 1,000JPY)
Applications of PV pow er
generation (Unit: MW)
4000
\ 2 6 0 / kWh
700
637
Power generation
cost per 1kWh
600
Installation cost
per 1kW
500
453
400
2000
\ 1 4 0 / kWh
3700
330
\ 1 2 0 / kWh
300
\ 8 2 / kWh
2000
1700
\ 7 2 / kWh \ 7 1 / kWh
1200
24
31
43
209
1040
60
133
1020
\ 6 5 / kWh
\ 5 8 / kWh
930
91
200
\ 5 2 / kWh \ 4 9 / kWh
100
840
750
710
0
0
1993
1994
1995
Trial period
13
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Diffusion project
2001
2002
Infrastructure
PV R&D Scenario for 2010
Infrastructure
Themes:
・Recycling and reuse
process
・EMC evaluation and
measures
PV System Technology for Mass Deployment
Demonstrative Research on Clustered PV Systems
Mass Production
Development of Advanced Manufacturing Technology
Module manufacturing cost < 140JPY/W
Themes:
・Low-cost mc-Si substrates
・Amorphous-Si solar cells on
plastic film
Performance
Development of Advanced Solar Cells + Modules
Module Manufacturing cost < 100JPY/W
Themes:
・TF crystalline Si
・TF CIS
Seeds
Investigation for Innovative PV
Technology
Cost approx. 50JPY/W
R&D
Practical use
14
2001
Themes:
・Wide bandgap microcrystalline SiC,
・Carbon-based thin-film,
・Ｄye-sensitized
Outcomes (2010)
・CO2 reduction ＝1.6Mt
at 4.82GW (accum.)
・\2 trillion market
in next 10 years
at 4.82GW (accum.)
・Domestic PV mass
deployment, global
environment solution
and contribution, etc.
Mass deployment
Innovation
Advanced solar
cells
Mass production and
promotion
2005
2010
Wind Power Generation Capacity in Japan
Introduction Volume
[MW]
Number of
Turbines
800
700
800
End of FY2003
684MW, 738Turbines
Introduction Volume (MW)
Number of Turbines
(Preliminary)
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: NEDO research data
15
700
Fiscal Year
Expanded Application of Wind Power Generation Scenario
２００２
２００５
Measures for application and diffusion
16
Wind
conditions
Diffusion stage
Model of regional
wind conditions
Map of wind conditions
Wind power generation field test
Wind turbines
Stabilizing system
Technology development, demonstration test
Application stage
２０１０
Generation
side
System
side
Maintenance of
hardware
infrastructure/
application
support
For distant islands
Technology progress at private companies
Stabilizing wind power generation electricity system
Electricity system measures → demonstration test
Application support
(review of supplementary scheme)
Electricity system measures → System enforcement support measure
RPS Law (2003～)
Maintenance of
infrastructure on
software side
Examination of review-related systems and restrictions aiming for an expanded market
Examination of international standardization
Indicator
application for
2010 :
3,000ＭＷ
Conditions for Biomass Energy in Japan
20%
Potential Quantity of Waste Biomass Energy Source :
26 Million kl (Forecast for FY2010)
Used Source Amount
4.95 Million kl
(FY2000 basis)
Unused Sources
Incineration Disposal, Reclamation Disposal, Ocean Dumping
21.05 Million kl
Technical Background
Indicator for Biomass
Energy Introduction
5.95 Million kl
30% (FY2010)
Utilization
of Unused
Sources
(Note)
Total Sum of Indicator for New
Energy Introduction
19.10 Million kl (FY2010)
Reference : Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy,
"Report of Working Party on New Energy,“ etc.
17
•Evolution of Biotechnology
•Research on New Reaction Fields (Supercritical
Technology)
Miniaturization, Higher-Efficiency and Higher
Device Performance
Social Requirement
•Environmental Issues (CO2 emission reductions)
•Waste Problems (Shortage of Final Disposal
Sites, Dioxin Generation with
Incineration Disposal, Ban on Ocean Dumping
Expanded Application of Biomass Energy Scenario
２０１０
２００５
２００２
Technology development,
demonstration test
Application Stage
Conversion
technology
Diffusion Stage
Development of high efficiency biomass
conversion technology
Higher efficiency conversion
and lower cost.
Indicator
applications
Demonstration test of unused energy
for 2010
Practical use
and diffusion
promotion
Application,
Full-scale market
expansion
Deciding regional vision
Project formation promotion
businesses from regions
Power
generation:
340,000 kl
Heat:
670,000 kl
Application support (support for local governments and the public sector)
Black liquor
and scrap
wood:
4,940,000 kl
Maintenance
of
infrastructure
on software
side
(system side)
Overall action through cooperation of each ministry, without limitation to
energy utilization based on “Biomass Nippon Strategy”
Examination of liquid fuel utilization
Putting it into practice, diffusion
RPS Law (2003～)
2002
Scenario for Practical Application and Diffusion of Fuel Cells
2005
2010
Ground work and technology demonstration stage
Initial introduction of fuel cell
vehicle and stationary fuel cells
Policy on accelerating Introduction
Effort until around 2005
will be very important
for future stages
Commercialization
Fuel supply
system
Introductory stage
Accelerate
introduction
Year 2010
Fuel Cell Vehicles :
50,000
Stationary Fuel Cells
2.2GW
Promoting Introduction
Verification Test (2002～2005）
(Demonstration program on FCV road
test, hydrogen station, and stationary
fuel cells)
(Public sectors and FC industries
will adopt FCVs)
Stepwise Installment
Diffusion stage
Market will
naturally grow
and expand
Year 2020
Fuel Cell Vehicles :
5,000,000
Stationary Fuel
Cells
10GW
Promoting
Commercialization
Establishment of fuel
supply system mainly
by the private sector
Review of Regulations
Soft
Infrastructure
Millennium Project (2000～2004）
［Establishment of standards,
International harmonization]
R&D on fuel cells
R&D on hydrogen utilization
R&D on basic factors that contribute further to
improving performance and cost reduction
2020
New Activities
1. Major Focus areas in New/Renewable Energy R&D
- PV : ↓Cost through Thin Film Technology;
Breakthrough in Performance & Durability in Dye-Sensitized PV Cells
- Biomass : ↓Cost; ↑Durability through Simplification of Systems
- Wind : ↑Operating ratio in Japanese Wind condition;
Validation of Necessary Strength
- FC : ↑Durability in System Operation; ↓Cost through Largescale
Demonstration
2. PV Roadmap Toward 2030
-
Target : PV Cumulative Installed Capacity 100GW (2030),
PV Power Generation to supply 50% of Residential Electricity
Consumption (10% of Total Electricity Consumption)
PV Electricity Cost : 7 Yen/kWh (2030) (vs. 49 Yen/kWh(2002))
PV Module Production Cost: 50 Yen/W (2030)
20
http://www.nedo.go.jp/english/informations/161027/pv2030roadmap.pdf
New Activities(cont’d)
3. New Project Proposals for FY2005 (Examples)
-
PV : R&D Pj. for Technologies to Accelerate Introduction of PV Power
Generation System to the Market
(1/2 Subsidy for Development Cost, JPY 2.15B for 3 years)
-
Solar Thermal : R&D Pj. for Innovative Use of Solar Thermal Energy
Systems (JPY 1.50B for 3 years)
-
FC : Strategic R&D Pj. for PEFC Systems for Practical Use
(JPY 5.45B) (more focus on systematic development)
-
Hydrogen: R&D Pj. for Fundamental Technology for Hydrogen Society
(JPY 3.58B) (focus on safety, codes & standards)
21
New Activities(cont’d)
4. New Energy Hybrid Demonstration System at EXPO 2005
Welcome!!
3/25/2005 ～9/25/2005
22
New Energy Hybrid Demonstration System at EXPO 2005
Electric Power System
Electric Power Network
at Expo
3/25/2005 ～9/25/2005
PV : 330kW
Japanese
Government
Pabvilion
SOFC（50kW）Absorption chiller
NＡS Battery System
５００ｋW
Transformer Equipment
Methane Fermentation System
Woodchips & Plastic
23
MCFC（350kW）
Absorption chiller
Waste （4.8 t/d）
（20kg/h）
PAFC（800kW） Absorption chiller
Heat
Granulation
High-temperature Gasification System
（City Gas）
Cool Water
Absorption chiller
MCFC（370kW）
Air Conditioner
Conclusions
1. Japan’s energy supply structure is fragile.
2. Diversification of energy supplies and decrease in energy
demands are crucial.
3.New / renewable energy is important though the market share is
rather small.
4.PV, Biomass, Wind, FC & Hydrogen : Important R&D areas.
24
Thank you for your attention.
More Info:
http://www.nedo.go.jp/index.html
（Jpn)
http://www.nedo.go.jp/english/index.html
E-mail:
25
[email protected]
（Eng)