Transcript Mankiw 5/e Chapter 2: The Data of Macroeconomics

macro
CHAPTER TWO
The Data of
Macroeconomics
macroeconomics
fifth edition
N. Gregory Mankiw
PowerPoint® Slides
by Ron Cronovich
© 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved
Learning objectives
In this chapter, you will learn about:
 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
 the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
 the Unemployment Rate
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 1
Gross Domestic Product
Two definitions:
1. Total expenditure on
domestically-produced
final goods and services
2. Total income earned by
domestically-located
factors of production
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 2
Why expenditure = income
In every transaction,
the buyer’s expenditure
becomes the seller’s income.
Thus, the sum of all
expenditure equals
the sum of all income.
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 3
The Circular Flow
Income($)
Labor
House holds
Firms
Goods(bread)
Expenditure
($)
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 4
Value added
definition:
A firm’s value added is
the value of its output
minus
the value of the intermediate goods
the firm used to produce that output.
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 5
Exercise:
(Problem 2, p.38)
 A farmer grows a bushel of wheat
and sells it to a miller for $1.00.
 The miller turns the wheat into flour
and sells it to a baker for $3.00.
 The baker uses the flour to make a loaf of
bread and sells it to an engineer for $6.00.
 The engineer eats the bread.
Compute
– value added at each stage of production
– GDP
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 6
Final goods, value added, and GDP
 GDP = value of final goods produced
= sum of value added at all stages
of production
 The value of the final goods already includes
the value of the intermediate goods,
so including intermediate goods in GDP
would be double-counting.
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The Data of Macroeconomics
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The expenditure components of GDP
• consumption
• investment
• government spending
• net exports
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 8
Consumption (C)
def: the value of all goods • durable goods
last a long time
and services bought by
ex: cars, home
households. Includes:
appliances
• non-durable goods
last a short time
ex: food, clothing
• services
work done for
consumers
ex: dry cleaning,
air travel.
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 9
U.S. Consumption, 2001
$ billions
Consumption
Durables
$7,064.5
% of
GDP
69.2%
858.3
8.4
Nondurables
2,055.1
20.1
Services
4,151.1
40.7
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 10
Investment (I)
def1: spending on [the factor of production] capital.
def2: spending on goods bought for future use.
Includes:
 business fixed investment
spending on plant and equipment that firms will
use to produce other goods & services
 residential fixed investment
spending on housing units by consumers and
landlords
 inventory investment
the change in the value of all firms’ inventories
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 11
U.S. Investment, 2001
$ billions
Investment
Business fixed
$1,633.9
% of
GDP
16.0%
1,246.0
12.2
Residential fixed
446.3
4.4
Inventory
-58.4
-0.6
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 12
Investment vs. Capital
 Capital is one of the factors of production.
At any given moment, the economy has a
certain overall stock of capital.
 Investment is spending on new capital.
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 13
Stocks vs. Flows
Flow
Stock
More examples:
stock
flow
a person’s wealth
a person’s saving
# of people with
college degrees
# of new college
graduates
the govt. debt
the govt. budget deficit
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 14
Government spending (G)
 G includes all government spending on
goods and services.
 G excludes transfer payments
(e.g. unemployment insurance payments),
because they do not represent spending on
goods and services.
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 15
Government spending, 2001
$ billions
Gov spending
Federal
$1,839.5
% of
GDP
18.0%
615.7
6.0
Non-defense
216.6
2.1
Defense
399.0
3.9
1,223.8
12.0
State & local
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 16
Net exports (NX = EX - IM)
def: the value of total exports (EX)
minus the value of total imports (IM)
$ billions
U.S. Net Exports, 1960-2000
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
-350
-400
1960
1965
CHAPTER 2
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
The Data of Macroeconomics
1995
2000
slide 17
An important identity
Y = C + I + G + NX
where
Y = GDP = the value of total output
C + I + G + NX = aggregate expenditure
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 18
A question for you:
Suppose a firm
 produces $10 million worth of final goods
 but only sells $9 million worth.
Does this violate the
expenditure = output identity?
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 19
Why output = expenditure
 Unsold output goes into inventory,
and is counted as “inventory investment”…
…whether the inventory buildup was
intentional or not.
 In effect, we are assuming that
firms purchase their unsold output.
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 20
GDP:
An important and versatile concept
We have now seen that GDP measures
 total income
 total output
 total expenditure
 the sum of value-added at all stages
in the production of final goods
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 21
GNP vs. GDP
 Gross National Product (GNP):
total income earned by the nation’s factors of
production, regardless of where located
 Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
total income earned by domestically-located
factors of production, regardless of nationality.
(GNP – GDP) = (factor payments from abroad)
– (factor payments to abroad)
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 22
Discussion Question:
In your country,
which would you want
to be bigger, GDP or GNP?
Why?
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 23
(GNP – GDP) as a percentage of GDP
for selected countries, 1997.
U.S.A.
Bangladesh
Brazil
Canada
Chile
Ireland
Kuwait
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
CHAPTER 2
0.1%
3.3
-2.0
-3.2
-8.8
-16.2
20.8
-3.2
3.3
4.2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 24
Taiwan’s GNP v.s. GDP
Taiwan's gross national product (GNP) in 2002
was US$289.3 billion, and per capita GNP was
US$12,916.
Its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2002 was
US$281.9 billion, of which 31.05 percent was
contributed by the industrial sector and only 1.86
percent by agriculture.
The service sector, which has been particularly
robust and responsible for generating more than 50
percent of Taiwan's GDP since 1988, accounted for
67.10 percent of the GDP in 2002
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 26
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 27
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 28
廣告唱衰台灣？陳總統：台灣經濟比韓國好
中央社╱台北十八日電
2007.09.18 01:03 pm
陳總統指出，最近有人表面上在入聯公投的議題上「拿香跟著拜」，
但私底下卻唱衰台灣，說台灣的經濟很差，說亞洲四小龍已經沒有
台灣。過去的七年多，有人把「唱衰台灣」當作政治運動來推動，
用各種方式來傷害台灣的信心、打擊台灣的經濟，希望得到個別政
黨與個人的私利，這是一件使人非常遺憾的事情。
他進一步表示，最近由某一個政黨所拍的一支電視廣告，請一位韓
國朋友來批評台灣政府，說政府只會「拼政治」，不會「拼經濟」。
對任何的批評，包括對他本人在內，政府都願意謙虛接受。
陳總統拿出數據反駁電視廣告，他指出，批評要根據事實，不能自
己沒做功課就亂講。過去的四年，也就是2003年到2006年，台灣經
濟成長率平均為 5.05%，比韓國的 4.25%要好，台灣今年全年的經
濟成長率預估4.6%，與韓國的4.4%到4.8%相較，根據不同單位的預
測，完全不輸韓國。
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 29
三、當前經濟發展情勢
 2000～2002年我國的年平均經濟成長率較1996～1999年平均經
濟成長率衰退3.27個百分點，台灣經濟的衰退率在亞洲各國中
高居第一。
單位：％
中
華
民
國
美
印
國
馬
來
西
亞
國
本
坡
國
港
尼
賓
1996
6.10
3.60
3.50
8.10
6.80
4.30
5.90
10.0
7.80
5.85
1997
6.68
4.40
1.90
8.50
5.00
5.10
-1.37
7.30
4.70
5.19
1998
4.57
4.30
-1.1
-0.9
-6.7
-5.0
-10.51
-7.4
-13.1
-0.59
1999
5.42
4.10
0.20
6.40
10.9
3.40
4.43
6.10
0.80
3.40
2000
5.86
3.80
2.80
9.40
9.30
10.2
4.64
8.50
4.90
4.38
2001
-2.18
0.30
0.40
-2.4
3.10
0.50
1.90
0.30
3.50
4.50
2002
3.59
2.40
0.10
2.20
6.30
2.30
5.30
4.10
3.50
4.40
1996～
1999平均 A
5.69
4.10
1.13
5.52
4.00
1.95
-0.39
4.00
0.05
3.46
2000～
2002平均 B
2.42
2.17
1.10
3.07
6.23
4.33
3.91
4.30
3.97
4.42
-3.27
-1.93
-0.03
-2.45
2.23
2.38
4.30
0.30
3.92
0.96
國
別
年
別
B-A
日
新
韓
香
泰
加
The Data of Macroeconomics
CHAPTER 2
資料來源：依各國政府統計資料整理。
菲
律
slide 30
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 31
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 32
Real vs. Nominal GDP
 GDP is the value of all final goods and
services produced.
 Nominal GDP measures these values
using current prices.
 Real GDP measure these values using
the prices of a base year.
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 33
Practice problem, part 1
2001
2002
2003
P
Q
P
Q
P
Q
good A
$30
900
$31
1,000
$36
1,050
good B
$100
192
$102
200
$100
205
 Compute nominal GDP in each year
 Compute real GDP in each year using
2001 as the base year.
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 34
Answers to practice problem, part 1
 Nominal GDP
multiply Ps & Qs from same year
2001: $46,200 = $30  900 + $100  192
2002: $51,400
2003: $58,300
 Real GDP
multiply each year’s Qs by 2001 Ps
2001: $46,300
2002: $50,000
2003: $52,000 = $30  1050 + $100  205
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 35
(billions of U.S. dollars)
U.S. Real & Nominal GDP,
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
NGDP (billions of $)
CHAPTER 2
1985
1967-2001
1990
1995
2000
RGDP (billions of 1996 $)
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 36
GDP Deflator
 The inflation rate is the percentage
increase in the overall level of prices.
 One measure of the price level is
the GDP Deflator, defined as
Nominal GDP
GDP deflator = 100 
Real GDP
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 37
Practice problem, part 2
Nom. GDP Real GDP
2001
$46,200
$46,200
2002
51,400
50,000
2003
58,300
52,000
GDP
deflator
inflation
rate
n.a.
 Use your previous answers to compute
the GDP deflator in each year.
 Use GDP deflator to compute the inflation rate
from 2001 to 2002, and from 2002 to 2003.
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 38
Answers to practice problem, part 2
Nom. GDP Real GDP
GDP
deflator
inflation
rate
2001
$46,200
$46,200
100.0
n.a.
2002
51,400
50,000
102.8
2.8%
2003
58,300
52,000
112.1
9.1%
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 39
Working with percentage changes
USEFUL TRICK #2
the percentage change in (X/Y )
 the percentage change in X
 the percentage change in Y
EX:
GDP deflator = 100  NGDP/RGDP.
If NGDP rises 9% and RGDP rises 4%,
then the inflation rate is approximately 5%.
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 41
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
 A measure of the overall level of prices
 Published by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS)
 Used to
– track changes in the
typical household’s cost of living
– adjust many contracts for inflation
(i.e. “COLAs”)
– allow comparisons of dollar figures from
different years
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The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 42
How the BLS constructs the CPI
1. Survey consumers to determine composition
of the typical consumer’s “basket” of goods.
2. Every month, collect data on prices of all
items in the basket; compute cost of basket
3. CPI in any month equals
Cost of basket in that month
100 
Cost of basket in base period
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 43
Exercise: Compute the CPI
The basket contains 20 pizzas and
10 compact discs.
For each year, compute
prices:
2000
2001
2002
2003
pizza
$10
$11
$12
$13
CHAPTER 2
CDs
$15
$15
$16
$15
 the cost of the basket
 the CPI (use 2000 as
the base year)
 the inflation rate from
the preceding year
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 44
answers:
cost of
basket
CPI
inflation
rate
2000
$350
100.0
n.a.
2001
370
105.7
5.7%
2002
400
114.3
8.1%
2003
410
117.1
2.5%
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 45
The composition of the CPI’s “basket”
Food and bev.
17.6%
Housing
5.8%
5.9%
2.8%
Apparel
2.5%
Transportation
4.5%
4.8%
Medical care
Recreation
16.2%
Education
Communication
40.0%
Other goods and
services
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 46
Reasons why
the CPI may overstate inflation
 Substitution bias: The CPI uses fixed weights,
so it cannot reflect consumers’ ability to substitute
toward goods whose relative prices have fallen.
 Introduction of new goods: The introduction of
new goods makes consumers better off and, in effect,
increases the real value of the dollar. But it does not
reduce the CPI, because the CPI uses fixed weights.
 Unmeasured changes in quality:
Quality improvements increase the value of the dollar,
but are often not fully measured.
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 49
The CPI’s bias
 The Boskin Panel’s “best estimate”:
The CPI overstates the true increase in the
cost of living by 1.1% per year.
 Result: the BLS has refined the way it
calculates the CPI to reduce the bias.
 It is now believed that the CPI’s bias is
slightly less than 1% per year.
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 50
CPI vs. GDP deflator
prices of capital goods
• included in GDP deflator (if produced domestically)
• excluded from CPI
prices of imported consumer goods
• included in CPI
• excluded from GDP deflator
the basket of goods
• CPI: fixed
• GDP deflator: changes every year
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 51
Two measures of inflation
Percentage
change 16
CPI
14
12
10
8
6
GDP deflator
4
2
0
-2
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Year
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 52
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The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 53
2007/08/07 中國時報
蔬菜水果大落價 七月消費者物價指數 居然下跌
多項商品漲漲漲，但和一般人感受不同的是，七月消費者物價指數（ＣＰＩ）還
下跌，較去年同期跌○．三四％，連主計處都說，「大家一定很意外」。
主計處第三局科長吳昭明表示，七月ＣＰＩ甚至創下近十個月以來最大跌幅，這
「與民眾的感受有所差距」，但如果扣除蔬菜、水果，七月ＣＰＩ年增率為一．
四四％，是近五個月以來新高，這個漲幅就「與民眾感受較為接近」。
吳昭明說明，去年同期受到兩個颱風來襲，蔬果價格很高，但今年風調雨順，蔬
菜與水果價格相對去年大幅下滑，其中蔬菜下跌二十九％、水果下跌十三％。主
計處列舉多項跌幅較大的項目，例如蔥跌六十九％、木瓜、苦瓜、香瓜也跌近四
成。「有買菜的家庭主婦會感受到。」他說。
根據主計處的資料，單單蔬菜、水果的跌價，就使ＣＰＩ跌一．六七個百分點，
而漲幅較大的幾個項目，例如藥品及保健食品漲二十二％，但由於權值不高，只
使ＣＰＩ增加○．二個百分點；水電燃氣漲四％，也只使ＣＰＩ增加○．一六個
百分點。
吳昭明指出，外界經常質疑主計處公布的物價指數，但主計處的物價編寫完全依
照國際的慣例，不能任意調整，否則「會有人為操作嫌疑」。目前的權數結構是
依照九○年的情形編的，但主計處每五年會檢討一次權數結構，到民國九十七年
二月公布消費者物價指數時，就會以九十五年的權數結構，日本、南韓也是五年
檢討一次，主計處的修正「絕非亡羊補牢」。
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 54
消 費 者 物 價 指 數 變 動 分 析 表
民國96年 7月
本月指數與各期比較
基期：民國90年=100
類
別
總指數
基
本
分
類
商
品
性
質
別
分
類
特分
殊類
權數
(‰)
本
指
月
數
與上月比較
(%)
對總指數影響
(百分點)
與上年同月比較
(%)
本年前7月指數平均
對總指數影響
(百分點)
與上年12月比較(%)
對總指數影響
(百分點)
指數
與上年同期比較
(%)
對總指數影響
(百分點)
1000.00
105.01
-0.24
-0.24
-0.34
-0.34
0.72
0.72
104.43
0.47
0.47
1、食物類
肉類
魚介
蔬菜
水果
250.54
25.17
16.73
27.89
27.94
109.61
114.00
118.09
119.80
96.15
-0.94
-1.09
0.41
-6.93
-5.18
-0.25
-0.03
0.01
-0.24
-0.14
-4.79
1.28
5.48
-29.07
-12.68
-1.32
0.03
0.10
-1.30
-0.37
-0.79
0.22
1.48
-5.04
-10.77
-0.21
0.01
0.03
-0.17
-0.31
109.30
114.46
117.94
112.25
105.88
-1.57
-0.26
6.24
-7.74
-10.80
-0.42
-0.01
0.11
-0.25
-0.35
2、衣著類
成衣
47.46
32.52
103.73
101.65
-3.70
-4.90
-0.18
-0.16
2.51
3.16
0.11
0.10
-3.51
-5.48
-0.17
-0.18
104.30
102.61
2.08
2.16
0.10
0.07
3、居住類
房租
家庭管理費用
水電燃氣
307.94
210.96
16.20
37.37
100.23
97.77
94.72
115.54
-0.12
0.01
-3.81
0.22
-0.04
0.00
-0.06
0.01
1.06
0.17
0.71
4.15
0.31
0.03
0.01
0.16
1.24
0.06
0.70
7.54
0.36
0.01
0.01
0.29
99.72
97.70
100.73
109.92
1.03
0.18
-0.53
4.59
0.30
0.04
-0.01
0.17
4、交通類
油料費
交通服務費
126.25
22.63
77.27
105.96
149.27
98.24
1.20
4.29
0.31
0.15
0.13
0.02
0.98
4.14
0.32
0.12
0.13
0.02
1.87
6.78
0.55
0.23
0.21
0.04
104.24
139.38
97.98
1.19
4.29
0.40
0.15
0.13
0.03
37.37
9.19
120.41
128.39
0.32
1.23
0.01
0.01
5.04
21.78
0.20
0.20
4.54
19.30
0.19
0.18
117.91
118.40
3.04
12.55
0.12
0.12
6、教養娛樂類
教養費用
娛樂費用
161.11
118.75
42.36
99.95
100.67
98.27
0.57
0.25
1.54
0.09
0.03
0.06
0.88
0.61
1.67
0.13
0.07
0.06
1.26
0.53
3.40
0.19
0.06
0.13
99.41
100.41
96.94
0.52
-0.02
2.06
0.08
0.00
0.08
7、雜項類
香菸及檳榔
69.33
19.55
110.99
147.18
-0.38
-1.49
-0.03
-0.04
1.33
2.81
0.10
0.07
1.63
2.58
0.12
0.07
111.38
148.81
1.92
4.30
0.14
0.11
1、商品類
(不含食物)
非耐久性消費品
(不含食物)
半耐久性消費品
耐久性消費品
528.52
277.97
384.36
133.81
62.59
81.57
108.01
106.58
112.99
119.50
100.85
88.74
-0.62
-0.33
-0.34
0.71
-2.94
-0.22
-0.34
-0.09
-0.14
0.11
-0.18
-0.02
-1.24
2.32
-1.76
3.97
1.85
-0.80
-0.68
0.63
-0.74
0.58
0.11
-0.05
0.61
1.94
1.35
5.27
-3.11
-0.55
0.33
0.54
0.56
0.77
-0.19
-0.04
107.07
105.08
111.52
115.84
101.31
89.33
0.35
2.24
0.29
3.74
1.55
-0.29
0.19
0.61
0.12
0.54
0.09
-0.02
2、服務類
居住服務
交通服務
醫藥保健服務
教養娛樂服務
雜項服務
471.48
237.03
74.10
24.69
104.85
30.81
101.63
97.68
98.09
121.94
108.22
100.75
0.22
-0.26
0.30
0.00
1.23
0.01
0.10
-0.06
0.02
0.00
0.13
0.00
0.75
0.28
0.27
0.26
2.32
0.26
0.34
0.06
0.02
0.01
0.25
0.01
0.83
0.14
0.51
0.16
2.73
0.63
0.38
0.03
0.04
0.00
0.29
0.02
101.46
98.03
97.84
121.88
106.79
100.96
0.61
0.20
0.36
0.45
1.70
0.55
0.28
0.05
0.02
0.01
0.18
0.02
總指數(不含蔬菜水果)
總指數(不含食物)
944.17
749.46
104.91
103.47
0.14
0.00
0.13
0.00
1.44
1.34
1.33
0.97
1.28
1.25
1.20
0.92
104.23
102.81
1.15
1.22
1.07
0.89
總指數(不含蔬果魚介及能源)
873.10
103.02
-0.02
-0.02
1.11
0.94
0.77
0.66
102.80
0.77
0.66
5、醫藥保健類
藥品及保健食品
說明：由於受查者延誤或更正報價，本表所載資料於公布
後3個月內均可能修正。
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 55
臺灣 CPI’s “basket” 分類比重圖
Chart Title
雜項類
7%
食物類
25%
教養娛樂
16%
醫藥保健
4%
交通類
12%
衣著類
5%
居住類
31%
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 56
臺灣CPI食物類比重圖
Chart Title
肉類
26%
水果
29%
魚介
17%
蔬菜
28%
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 57
The composition of the CPI’s “basket”
Food and bev.
17.6%
Housing
5.8%
5.9%
2.8%
Apparel
2.5%
Transportation
4.5%
4.8%
Medical care
Recreation
16.2%
Education
Communication
40.0%
Other goods and
services
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 58
中國時報 2007.10.06
荷包變薄的痛苦指數 難算
彭漣漪／特稿
九月消費者物價年增率破三％，說了八個月「物價還算平穩」的主計處終於鬆口表示，漲幅「相
當顯著」。但其實，這個「高得礙眼」的三％，與民眾的感受還是很遠，無法表達民眾每天實際要面
對荷包變薄的痛苦。
以一個標準的四口、中產、雙薪、有車家庭來說，每天要吃的食物類漲了七．七％，每天要開的
車，油價從去年的一公升二十二元漲到今年的近三十元，每日充飢的排骨飯、牛肉麵漲五元、十元，
口渴時要買的飲料也漲，想省錢時吃的泡麵也漲，這些每天要掏錢買的東西，漲幅都遠遠超過三％。
至於拉低消費者物價的物品，例如行動電話跌兩成、個人電腦跌四％、手提包及背包跌八％、微
波爐跌六％，都不是每日會感受到的。這些東西，一、兩年才換一次，甚至到時候為了省錢，還可以
將就著用，不必換。
每天要面對的民生用品大漲特漲，和每一、兩年才會碰到的小跌微跌，感受真的是天差地遠，完
全無法舒緩每日荷包變得愈來愈薄的痛苦。加上薪水幾年沒漲，未來前途不明，國家亂成一團，民眾
的痛苦是以等比級數在增加，這就是主計處調查結果與民眾感受差距的來源。民眾承受的經濟壓力，
心理層面的感受，主計處規規矩矩按照國際標準、幾個百分點乘幾百分點的理性算式，是完全算不出
來的。
而且，收入愈低的家庭，感受到的物價痛苦更劇烈。主計處過去曾經公布五等分位的消費結構，
收入最低的五分之一家庭，食品及房租水電支出占了總消費的五十二％，但高所得家庭花在這上面的
錢不到四成，當這些民生用品大漲特漲時，窮人受到的影響很大，有錢人則是不痛不癢，還有很多閒
錢繼續買豪宅名車。
根據主計處的家庭收支調查，去年高收入家庭每年可以存下六十五萬，中等收入家庭只存下九
萬，最低收入家庭只存下一百八十三元。對最窮的人來說，這些民生用品的漲，真是痛在心裡，一百
八十三元，只能負擔今年一、二十碗排骨麵多出來的漲幅，是難以承受的重。
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 59
中國時報 2007.10.06
物價高拉警報 央行年底可能升息一碼
陳怡慈／台北報導
主計處昨公布九月核心物價指數年增率一．九四％，創五年半
以來新高，公股行庫財務部門主管表示，核心物價（Core CPI）走
高，比消費者物價（ＣＰＩ）走高更值得關注，「這是警訊」，倘
若核心物價持續上漲，研判央行今年底理監事會可能恢復六月底升
息一碼（○．二五個百分點）的幅度。
行庫主管說，核心物價是扣除蔬果與能源後的消費者物價指
數，比較不受颱風等偶發性因素影響，央行自己有經濟研究室，這
次堅定升息，可能與預先掌握九月份核心物價走高的訊息有關。
行庫主管說，目前看來，央行今年底至少升息半碼（○．一二
五個百分點）；匯率方面，因台灣仰賴出口經濟比重仍大，加上其
他亞洲貨幣並未大幅升值、新台幣沒道理強出頭，研判今年底前，
新台幣會在三二．五元兌一美元上下二角盤整，即波動區間三二．
三元到三二．七元。
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 60
Categories of the population
 employed
working at a paid job
 unemployed
not employed but looking for a job
 labor force
the amount of labor available for producing
goods and services; all employed plus
unemployed persons
 not in the labor force
not employed, not looking for work.
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 61
Two important labor force concepts
 unemployment rate
percentage of the labor force that is
unemployed
 labor force participation rate
the fraction of the adult population
that ‘participates’ in the labor force
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 62
Exercise: Compute labor force statistics
U.S. adult population by group, April 2002
Number employed
= 134.0 million
Number unemployed =
8.6 million
Adult population
= 213.5 million
Use the above data to calculate
• the labor force
• the number of people not in the labor force
• the labor force participation rate
• the unemployment rate
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 63
Answers:
 data: E = 134.0, U = 8.6, POP = 213.5
 labor force
L = E +U = 134.0 + 8.6 = 142.6
 not in labor force
NILF = POP – L = 213.5 – 142.6 = 70.9
 unemployment rate
U/L = 8.6/142.6 = 0.06 or 6.0%
 labor force participation rate
L/POP = 142.6/213.5 = 0.668 or 68.8%
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 64
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 65
Okun’s Law
 Employed workers help produce GDP,
while unemployed workers do not.
So one would expect
a negative relationship between
unemployment and real GDP.
 This relationship is clear in the data…
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 67
Okun’s Law
Okun’s Law states
that a one-percent
decrease in
unemployment is
associated with two
percentage points
of additional growth
in real GDP
Percentage change
10
in real GDP
8
6
1951
1984
2000
4
1999
1993
2
1975
0
-2
-3
1982
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Change in
unemployment rate
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 68
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 69