Transcript Posibles modelos de articulación industrial

POSIBLES MODELOS DE
ARTICULACIÓN INDUSTRIAL
CARLOS RONDEROS Ph.D
Consejo Económico Colombo-Asiático
Mayo 2013
MADE IN THE WORLD
•
Today, companies divide their operations across the world, from
the design of the product and manufacturing of components to
assembly and marketing, creating international production chains.
More and more products are “Made in the World” rather than
“Made in the UK” or “Made in France”. The statistical bias created
by attributing the full commercial value to the last country of origin
can pervert the political debate on the origin of the imbalances and
lead to misguided, and hence counter-productive, decisions. The
challenge is to find the right statistical bridges between the
different statistical frameworks and national accounting systems to
ensure that international interactions resulting from globalization
are properly reflected and to facilitate cross border dialogue
between national decision makers.
EL RETO
• ¿Cómo lograr cada vez mayores niveles de
apertura de la mano de una creciente
industrialización?.
• ¿Cómo fortalecemos las bases industriales
existentes en los países andinos?
COSTO DE TRANSICION
• Al abrir sus economías los países reasignan
recursos hacía aquellos sectores que son
competitivos.
• Si la reasignación es al interior de los sectores
industriales existentes los costos de transición
son menores y se realizan de manera más
acelerada.
ASIA LA REGIÓN DE MAYOR
CRECIMIENTO
• Asia and the Pacific constitutes the most dynamic
region in the world today: It has rapidly moved from
an agrarian economy to an industrialized economy
which has modified its ways of production and
consumption and resource use patterns. Domestic
material consumption grew at a compounding
annual rate of 4.9% over the three decades from
1975 – 2005. The corresponding growth rate for the
rest of the world was around 0.5%;(UNEP)
CONTINUA
• The East Asia and Pacific region continues to
be an engine of global growth, contributing
around 40 percent of global growth in 2012.
• Driven by strong domestic demand, the region
grew at 7.5 percent in 2012 -- higher than any
other region in the world. World Bank
• China is projected to grow 8.3 percent in 2013
and 8.0 percent in 2014.
PIB PER CAPITA
2000
2001
2011
PARTICIPACIÓN EXPORTACIONES MUNDIALES %
ASIA NO TIENE NIVELES DE PROTECCIÓN SUPERIORES A COLOMBIA
APERTURA Y CRECIMIENTO EN ASIA
• The evidence on this is clear. No country in recent
decades has achieved economic success, in terms of
substantial increases in living standards for its people,
without being open to the rest of the world. In
contrast, trade opening (along with opening to foreign
direct investment) has been an important element in
the economic success of East Asia, where the average
import tariff has fallen from 30 percent to 10 percent
over the past 20 year-IMF
• Opening up their economies to the global economy has
been essential in enabling many developing countries
to develop competitive advantages in the manufacture
of certain products
EL NUEVO ENTORNO
• “La evolución de la organización industrial a escala global
afecta no solo la suerte de las firmas y la estructura de la
industria, sino también define como y porque los países
avanzan en la economía global. El trabajo de investigación
acerca de las cadenas de valor mundial y la política
correspondiente examina las maneras diferentes en las cuales
la producción global y los sistema de distribución se integran,
y la posibilidad que tienen las empresas de los países en
desarrollo de desarrollar su posición en el mercado global”
(Gereffi 2005)
Uso
Final
C
A
D
E
N
A
MERCADO
Consumidores
MODULAR
RELACIONAL
Firma
Líder
Firma
Líder
Proveedor
Llave en
Mano
Proveedor
Relacional
CAUTIVA
Firma
Líder
JERARQUICA
Firma
Integrada
V
A
L
O
R
D
E
Precio
Proveedores
de
Componentes
y materiales
Proveedores
de
Componentes
y materiales
Proveedores
Cautivos
Proveedores
Materiales
Grado de Coordinación Explícita
Bajo
Alto
Grado de Asimetría de poder
Integración con las firmas globales
• The global reorganization of manufacturing,
which is referred to as the new international
division of labor, is considered by some to be
the defining characteristic of the latest wave
of globalization (Fröbel, Heinrichs and Kreye
1980;Castells 1996; Hoogvelt 1997). Scholars
think that manufacturing is now organized
through complex networks of firms, which are
sometimes labeled as Global (Yunus Kaya
2011)
Integración de las firmas Globales
• Commodity Chains or Global Value Chains (e.g., Gereffi
2005; Dicken 2003). Within these networks, firms from
developed economies relocate their manufacturing
activities in developing countries by investing in or
subcontracting, while they focus on higher value
activities such as research and development, and
marketing (Gereffi 2001; Kaplinksy 2000). This, then,
translates into increasing manufacturing exports and
FDI, and expanding manufacturing employment
indeveloping countries.
• Yunus Kaya
OMC
• Global value chains translate into growth,
jobs, and development. Better information on
their functioning and impact, on how trade
opening and adjustment assistance supports
the fragmentation of production, and on how
economies, firms and individuals may benefit
from it could help to strengthen public
support for open markets and help poverty
alleviation
MEXICO CONFIRMA LA TEORIA
• “La evolución del índice de comercio intraindustrial de México
muestra que se ha dado un aumento notable de la parte del
comercio internacional que corresponde a intercambios en
bienes similares. Ello es un indicador del cambio estructural en
el patrón del comercio exterior de México. …..El aumento del
índice de comercio intraindustrial es un indicador más del
cambio del patrón del comercio exterior que se ha operado en
las últimas dos décadas. La expansión del comercio exterior
observada se asocia no tanto a factores de ventaja comparativa
de unas industrias sobre otras, como lo señala la teoría
tradicional del comercio internacional, sino que se vincula a la
expansión de modelos de producción compartida y a la
especialización internacional dentro de cada sector.”
(Moreno&Viquiera 2007)
HACER LA TAREA
• Contrast, there are successful examples of “upscaling”
within global manufacturing linkages by Asian
countries such as China, South Korea and Taiwan,
among others.
• governments of India, South Korea, Taiwan or China set
up state-owned Research and Development
laboratories (R&D) while also invested in higher
education. Official measures focused on strengthening
the network of suppliers to “leading” company through
the substitution of imported inputs (parts and
components), the advance of science and technology,
and regional development
ESTUDIO DE 64 PAÍSES EN
DESARROLLO 1980-203
• The effect of globalization on manufacturing employment is mainly
through international trade Yunus Kaya
• while FDI flow has no effect. FDI stock in secondary sector has a significant
positive effect on industrialization in developing countries when added to
the models, while FDI flows in this sector has no effect. These suggest that
direct investment in developing countries by foreign companies may be
less important in the global reorganization of manufacturing than the
trade between these companies and the companies from developing
countries
• Thus, integration into the world economy does not appear to have an
overwhelming negative effect on industrialization in developing countries.
(Yunus Kaya 2011)
EL CASO DE VIETNAM
APERTURA TEXTILES Y CONFECCIONES
Khalisd Nadu et.al (2004). Journal of International Development)
MODELO ACTUAL
El modelo de ensamble puede no ser la mejor opción pues se necesita que
el producto se adapta a las condiciones de país (Consumidor, clima, preferencias).
Para ello se requiere que parte del desarrollo de producto se realice en
Colombia y ello permite adaptar al mercado local. En algunos casos
Puede llegar a ser necesario el desarrollo de un nuevo producto
DESARROLLO PARCIAL DE PRODUCTO
MODELO DE DESARROLLO INDUSTRIAL
• The last stage of industrial cooperation is arrived when the
value chain of Korea is integrated with that of Colombia, and
Korean companies, in cooperation with Colombian
companies, develop new market in Latin American countries
CADENA DE VALOR
CADENAS POSIBLES CON COREA
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Sector Automotriz
Sector Textil
Sector Eléctrico
Cosméticos
Petroquímica
Software
Industria Gráfica
METODOLOGÍA
• Identificación de empresas en Corea y
Colombia
• Identificación de elementos de competitividad
• Análisis SWAT
• Definición de etapas de cooperación e
integración de las cadenas.
• Inversión Extranjera
• Desarrollo de tecnología